Would you have had this "Wiseguy" horse at AP today?

[Space Monkey]

FERVANT HOPE, ML 20-1, R9, AP, 10,000N2L

Claimed at CD on 4/26 for 15,000 when beaten by 19 at 31-1(when was the last time you saw a 31-1 shot claimed?). Next race is 7/2 same conditions. Runs 8th beaten by 25 with f for the first time at 27-1. Shows up today at AP for owner/trainer Jeff Talley. Its his first starter at AP this meet but hes a 19% trainer with a plus ROI. No slouch. BlnkrOn and 1 slow workout at CD on 8/24.

I gave this horse a second look because of the owner/trainer. He was 21% at 46-90 days away, 31% first start w/trainer and 30% first blinkers. It just smelled like a set up. I went off him because of the f last time and only 1 slow 4F work at .51.

I didn't watch the board, I bet early and watched the end of the golf tournament. When I sat down to watch the race I saw she was 7-1. I got this sick feeling in my stomach. Sure enough, she broke out on top, took them all the way around and just got beat in the last stride. Would you have had this horse?

I know 1 thing for sure. Well, 2 things. I'm not putting this horse on my watch list, but I am putting owner/trainer Jeff Talley in my permanent memory bank under "Shrewd Owner/Trainer Wiseguy". :cool:

[lamboguy]

FERVANT HOPE, ML 20-1, R9, AP, 10,000N2L

Claimed at CD on 4/26 for 15,000 when beaten by 19 at 31-1(when was the last time you saw a 31-1 shot claimed?). Next race is 7/2 same conditions. Runs 8th beaten by 25 with f for the first time at 27-1. Shows up today at AP for owner/trainer Jeff Talley. Its his first starter at AP this meet but hes a 19% trainer with a plus ROI. No slouch. BlnkrOn and 1 slow workout at CD on 8/24.

I gave this horse a second look because of the owner/trainer. He was 21% at 46-90 days away, 31% first start w/trainer and 30% first blinkers. It just smelled like a set up. I went off him because of the f last time and only 1 slow 4F work at .51.

I didn't watch the board, I bet early and watched the end of the golf tournament. When I sat down to watch the race I saw she was 7-1. I got this sick feeling in my stomach. Sure enough, she broke out on top, took them all the way around and just got beat in the last stride. Would you have had this horse?

I know 1 thing for sure. Well, 2 things. I'm not putting this horse on my watch list, but I am putting owner/trainer Jeff Talley in my permanent memory bank under "Shrewd Owner/Trainer Wiseguy". :cool:jeff is my good buddy, when everyone was going to school, he was on his way home!!!


he won a trainer objection in churhill this year. he flew over tall buildings to get the objection in too!! he got there in the nick of time, it was the last race of the day and made them watch and take down mott's horse.

[Space Monkey]

Sounds like a fun guy, but I don't think hes laughing tonight after getting beat on the wire. Do you follow his horses? Is Fervant Hope a common scenario for him?

[Murph]

FERVANT HOPE, ML 20-1, R9, AP, 10,000N2L

Would you have had this horse?
I have this one second rated overall in this field. In addition Talley shows positive win and itm stats going dirt to poly. His speed figs were in order and this field is very closely rated. Worth a single at those odds if you can stand the "lone E" run style.

I did not play AP today.

[ArlJim78]

like you I thought I smelled a live one looking at Fervent Hope. I bet him to win.
he had the look of a live long shot to me.

[big frank]

I was alive with him in the late dd for 5 bucks,,, i thought i was home free,, hrtv was calling a dead heat but i knew i was beat

[cj]

Don't you think the surface switch was a huge part of the betting action?

[big frank]

Don't you think the surface switch was a huge part of the betting action? yes sir,, i had the the thought that Talley took this horse with the synthetic tracks in mind

[bobbyt62]

wiseguy might have had this horse at 15-1, in the days when you had to do more than JUST BUY a form and have everything in front of you --and everyone else betting more than $2. how about no trainer stats and no indication that ownership/trainering had changed--that's how it used to be. how about those same running lines for what would look like the same trainer as previous races, and no trainer stats at all, unless he was a top 10-20 trainer. 7-1 doesn't sound like a huge overlay, but maybe a small one.

[bisket]

FERVANT HOPE, ML 20-1, R9, AP, 10,000N2L

Claimed at CD on 4/26 for 15,000 when beaten by 19 at 31-1(when was the last time you saw a 31-1 shot claimed?). Next race is 7/2 same conditions. Runs 8th beaten by 25 with f for the first time at 27-1. Shows up today at AP for owner/trainer Jeff Talley. Its his first starter at AP this meet but hes a 19% trainer with a plus ROI. No slouch. BlnkrOn and 1 slow workout at CD on 8/24.

I gave this horse a second look because of the owner/trainer. He was 21% at 46-90 days away, 31% first start w/trainer and 30% first blinkers. It just smelled like a set up. I went off him because of the f last time and only 1 slow 4F work at .51.

I didn't watch the board, I bet early and watched the end of the golf tournament. When I sat down to watch the race I saw she was 7-1. I got this sick feeling in my stomach. Sure enough, she broke out on top, took them all the way around and just got beat in the last stride. Would you have had this horse?

I know 1 thing for sure. Well, 2 things. I'm not putting this horse on my watch list, but I am putting owner/trainer Jeff Talley in my permanent memory bank under "Shrewd Owner/Trainer Wiseguy". :cool:
this is how your daughter and i had the winner in the blue grass this year. :p
surface change made all the difference in the world

[garyscpa]

I think it might have been a "Sheets' thing. A guy at the track today was all over him, except he said he hadn't run in a year. We pointed out he had five starts this year, all bad. Anyway, he was all over him, and thought he'd won.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Has good sire and 2 good grand sires, may do fine later. No bet for me.
Some answering your thread are calling the filly "him".

[Space Monkey]

this is how your daughter and i had the winner in the blue grass this year. [QUOTE]

Sure biskit, rub it in why don't ya. Next thing ya know you'll bring up Freezy :blush:

CJ, I did notice that her 1 win was on the poly, but when a horse tails off that badly it usually doesn't mean its the surface. Remember she was claimed for 15, ran at 10. No real bargain here. I was looking at this from a different angle. Sometimes a trainer gets a new horse in his barn and can do things to improve the horse that doesn't show up in the form. I thought that this was a real possibility, more so than what was obvious in the form. Talley, his buddies, everybody that works for him and their aunts, uncles and cousins jumped all over it and that contributed to the lower than expected odds. Smart money, not smart handicapping.

Murph, Talley had + trainer angles all over the place. Thats what drew me to this horse in the first place.

To be honest, if I had been watching the board, I most likely would have boxed her in an exacta with my top choice, who was Approved
Woman.

[Space Monkey]

I have this one second rated overall in this field.[QUOTE]

Murph, a ML 20-1 shot that you had rated 2nd. Thats a definite play for me. How could you not play the race? :confused:

[bisket]

can't say anything about freezy cause i still can't believe i put him in the tri derby day. if i woulda stuck to my guns it would be a good one to have when i needed it ;)

[garyscpa]

Has good sire and 2 good grand sires, may do fine later. No bet for me.
Some answering your thread are calling the filly "him".

Sorry, I didn't bet the race or the track. I just looked at the guys program for a second after someone else said that the horse had run in July. Didn't look at sex, just the racing dates, since the race was already loading.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Sorry, I didn't bet the race or the track. I just looked at the guys program for a second after someone else said that the horse had run in July. Didn't look at sex, just the racing dates, since the race was already loading.
I was not knocking anyone; Actually, I was wondering if anybody wold enlighten me as to if the sex of the horse (filly!) might make a difference as to shipping, blinkers, improvement, or whatever.

[Space Monkey]

biskit, I was being nice. thats too painful a moment for me crack on ya for. :lol:

[Show Me the Wire]

I was not knocking anyone; Actually, I was wondering if anybody wold enlighten me as to if the sex of the horse (filly!) might make a difference as to shipping, blinkers, improvement, or whatever.

Yes, females are usually, (I said usually not always) more nervous and skittish in unfamiliar areas.

[bisket]

hey i blame it on you. its nice when you have a fall guy to take the heat for ya ;)

[Fastracehorse]

this is how your daughter and i had the winner in the blue grass this year. [QUOTE]

Sure biskit, rub it in why don't ya. Next thing ya know you'll bring up Freezy :blush:

CJ, I did notice that her 1 win was on the poly, but when a horse tails off that badly it usually doesn't mean its the surface. Remember she was claimed for 15, ran at 10. No real bargain here. I was looking at this from a different angle. Sometimes a trainer gets a new horse in his barn and can do things to improve the horse that doesn't show up in the form. I thought that this was a real possibility, more so than what was obvious in the form. Talley, his buddies, everybody that works for him and their aunts, uncles and cousins jumped all over it and that contributed to the lower than expected odds. Smart money, not smart handicapping.

Sure Talley is talented, but even low % types do well with barn changes. Watch this: ANY BARN CHANGE! Doesn't have to be a claim.

fffastt

Murph, Talley had + trainer angles all over the place. Thats what drew me to this horse in the first place.

To be honest, if I had been watching the board, I most likely would have boxed her in an exacta with my top choice, who was Approved
Woman.

[Murph]

I have this one second rated overall in this field.[QUOTE]

Murph, a ML 20-1 shot that you had rated 2nd. Thats a definite play for me. How could you not play the race? :confused:I wasn't paying attention, I looked it up after the race. This Talley fellow seems to be an interesting character. I'll look for his moves to Turfway and Keeneland this fall. Arlington has been returning such inconsistent results that I don't play them. No CAL poly either.

In fact, I haven't bet $200 yet this year. I'm preparing for the fall races in KY and the Indiana Derby cards for some plays.

[Space Monkey]

Funny, I find Arlington pretty consistent and somewhat easy to handicap with their small fields. The problem I'm having is similar to playing SA or HOL. Tough to find value. I like to bet low to moderate with high return possibilities. Some tracks require you to load up on fewer combinations. I'm looking at AP and MTH for tomorrow. I like MTH's wagering menu and takeout.

[bisket]

Funny, I find Arlington pretty consistent and somewhat easy to handicap with their small fields. The problem I'm having is similar to playing SA or HOL. Tough to find value. I like to bet low to moderate with high return possibilities. Some tracks require you to load up on fewer combinations. I'm looking at AP and MTH for tomorrow. I like MTH's wagering menu and takeout.
whatsamatter with saratoga. howd you do today dropped about 30 myself. just missed a couple that would have left me near even, but can't complain. asiatic failed or i woulda had 150 on rachels race. 5$ tri ticket. bigD didn't post any picks today

[bisket]

sorry thats about 90$ on rachel's race.

[Space Monkey]

$90, won or lost??? Didn't play yesterday. Looking at AP and MTH. Will post on selection thread.

[bisket]

didn't win asiatic boy didn't come through for me. longshot today in the pac classic richards kid. he's gonna run the race of his life. i like the nice even race at 1 1/2 mile to get him where he needs to be today. at the very least throw him in your tri!!!

[Space Monkey]

Not playing Del mar today.I'm doing the "Spot Play" thing. Looked at AP and MTh. Didn't play AP. Check out my thread on MTH in Selections :jump: :ThmbUp:

[bisket]

lost 10$ on the race but if asiatic finished 3rd i would had 90$
posted pps on the pac classic thread if you wanna handicap the pac classic

[phatbastard]

nice call on Delmar race..wish i played there

[bisket]

thanks