Travers winner ?

[cj's dad]

While I think the Travers has lost some of its' luster with the defection of MTB and the lack of a potential superstar in RA, it is however still the Travers Stakes.

Barring heavy rain, which is apparently a real possibility, who do you pick and why.

My selection is Kensai. The figures I use show that this colt has steadily improved in each start. and appears ready to explode onto the scene.

[Murph]

While I think the Travers has lost some of its' luster with the defection of MTB and the lack of a potential superstar in RA, it is however still the Travers Stakes.

Barring heavy rain, which is apparently a real possibility, who do you pick and why.

My selection is Kensai. The figures I use show that this colt has steadily improved in each start. and appears ready to explode onto the scene.
I'm looking at #2 CHARITABLE MAN for a play. He looks to be in top form and he can finish well into a fast pace. Last 3 races are very good numbers with 2 bullet works comming into this one. 10F may suit him better than the Belmont distance. Maybe Kensai and QR will have some trouble at this distance? That's what it looks like I'll be basing this wager on.

Should get a fair price on the play. Most likely to play him WP.

[W2G]

I think slop is a given and look for the Travers to fail in bringing any clarity to the three-year-old colt division. Warrior's Reward in a mild upset. ML of 8-1 seems generous for this still raw talent, but Borel's record at this meet might ensure those kind of odds. All indications point to WR being very well meant. Borel should find a sweet stalking position along the rail (where else) in mid-pack behind a solid pace. The pick.

[depalma113]

Summer Bird's last race was outstanding. He just ran against a monster. He wins this one and completes the double like his sire.

[GaryG]

SUMMER BIRD covered the 3rd quarter in :23.2 last time while head and head with Rachel. Should get his off the pace trip behind solid fractions from Our Edge and Kensei. The distance and probable wet track are also in his favor.

[OTM Al]

Kensai. Horse is moving forward nicely and already has a score on the track. I am believing Quality Road will fade in the lane and that is the way I'm playing this race. I think Summer Bird is a nice horse, but is a bit over rated and only 3rd best in this field.

[SoCalCircuit]

I havent looked hard at the pps yet so I dont really have an educated idea yet, but does anyone think if it gets really sloppy and the speeds holding all day that that Zito horse could wire the field? or is it just way too outclassed?

[Steven Kolb]

It probably won't happen, but...

I'd like to see Charitable Man take an early
relaxed lead - keep it and find some "nitro"
heading into the stretch...
probably something like 6-1 to 8-1
_____
I also like Kensai (3-1?) as part of
my two selections for the Pick 6.
_____
The other 5 legs could possibly provide a
very interesting opportunity, as I think
some of the chalk will have trouble making it
to the top of the board.

[slew101]

I like Kensei. 2-2 on the track and he looked super in the Jim Dandy. Prado looked loaded all the way around the track.

[oddsmaven]

Another vote for Kensei...the "now" horse who has come to hand...price is short on QR & would guess that Pletcher has had to rush his preparation to be ready for this and am hoping he comes up a little short going 1¼.

[fmolf]

I am looking for a good price on hold me back.....made two nice moves in hislast race...can get the distance ...coming off three good works...second off the layoff.

[BobbyMcMuffin]

I have 3 in my pick 4. But if Warriors Reward goes back to the off the pace trip and not so f'in close to the pace like in the Jim Dandy...8-1 looks damn good

[garyscpa]

While I think the Travers has lost some of its' luster with the defection of MTB and the lack of a potential superstar in RA, it is however still the Travers Stakes.

Barring heavy rain, which is apparently a real possibility, who do you pick and why.

My selection is Kensai. The figures I use show that this colt has steadily improved in each start. and appears ready to explode onto the scene.

How do you make these figures? ;)

[garyscpa]

Actually, I think it will be pretty chalky. Quality Road, Summer Bird, exact order. Not convinced Kensei will finish third.

[cj's dad]

How do you make these figures? ;)

Somehow I think you know the answer to that; which is that I do not. I am merely along for the ride; easiest h'capping I've ever done.:)

[NYPlayer]

Quality Road is clearly the superior horse in the race. The Sheets gave him a new top number of -0+ (minus one quarter) for his effort in the Amsterdam. It's a sizable jump for the horse in what was meant as a prep for the Travers. It's doubtful that he moves forward and seems more likely to bounce. Still, he is a bounce and win candidate if Kensai or any of the others don't move up their game.

Kensai appears likely to move forward, and he has the best numbers of any the others. However, he's more likely to make a small forward move rather than a large one. Thus I consider Quality Road and Kensai as co-top choices.

The most interesting outsider to me is Nick Zito's colt, Our Edge. Of all the runners, he appears to be the best candidate for a forward move. But again, it will probably be a small move and not good enough to win. He has early speed, so he should get an inside trip and hopefully avoids a speed duel (crossing my fingers). I plan to key him in trifecta's.

[bisket]

i didn't buy the form for tomorrow. i have twin boys i'm dropping off at college tomorrow for their first day on monday. i may be back to watch the race, but this day has been in the making for 18 years. so this is without being able to handicap the race properly, and just by going with what i know as far as general knowledge. you know i really don't have a clear picture of kensei's abilities so i truelly don't know his abilities. i do know that summer bird was into the race more at the beginning of the haskell, and he still finished well. this improvement has inspired me to think he'll win this because i just don't think quality is ready to go 1 1/4 miles. summer/quality straight exacta 5$ if i'm back in time, and 5$ win on summer. check cj's post about a horses maixmum output as far as his fastest early pace and it not causing a drop off at the end for the main reason i like summer. this way of analyzing a race has been the basis of my handicapping for years, and is why summer wins tomorrow!!

[Zaf]

I am rooting for Tim Ice & Summer Bird, but my win bet is on Warrior's Reward.

Z

[BombsAway Bob]

I'm envisioning a slop/speed bias early in the card, making a scenario where Our Edge gets a lot more pressure on top from Quality Road than if it were a dry fast track; Ramon tries to get CharMan back to his '08 SPA Speed, stalking in 3rd;
Summer Bird, Kensai, & Warriors Reward make up the second pack of three;
Hold Me Back will watch 'em all in the early stages...
Our Edge is the first pace casualty,& Charitable Man catches Quality Road
@ the sixteenth pole;
but Calvin Borel is Flying up the rail with mudlark Warriors Reward for the Win!
CharMan holds 2nd, & Hold Me Back tags a staggering Quality Road for 3rd.
----
Don't Forget,
11:30AM/ET=1st Post Travers Saturday@Saratoga~ 13 Races & A Monsoon!
Willing To Wager AT LEAST the 1st-5th-6th-& 13th will be OFF THE TURF?!

[depalma113]

Quality Road is clearly the superior horse in the race. The Sheets gave him a new top number of -0+ (minus one quarter) for his effort in the Amsterdam. It's a sizable jump for the horse in what was meant as a prep for the Travers. It's doubtful that he moves forward and seems more likely to bounce. Still, he is a bounce and win candidate if Kensai or any of the others don't move up their game.

Kensai appears likely to move forward, and he has the best numbers of any the others. However, he's more likely to make a small forward move rather than a large one. Thus I consider Quality Road and Kensai as co-top choices.

The most interesting outsider to me is Nick Zito's colt, Our Edge. Of all the runners, he appears to be the best candidate for a forward move. But again, it will probably be a small move and not good enough to win. He has early speed, so he should get an inside trip and hopefully avoids a speed duel (crossing my fingers). I plan to key him in trifecta's.


How can you believe any number given to Quality Road when his last race was almost a half second slower than it is being credited for?

[gm10]

It's a very tricky race imo. QR and Kensei have just the tiniest edge nn speed ratings but need to show they handle the 10F. Summer Bird is a little underrated, as Belmont Stakes winners sometimes are. I think that Our Edge is a big price 15/1.

[theguarantee]

I like Charitable Man. Think he will like the distance, setup and think he'll enjoy the slop. Was gaining late in the shorter Jim Dandy. Think wanted more distance than that but less than the Belmont...think this distance will prove to be perfect. Possibly singling in the Pick-4. Likely using in a cold double with Munnings. And playing a CM/Summer Bird exacta. Still not quite convinced I can leave Summer Bird off the pick-4, but I'm struggling to cut down in other races.

[JustRalph]

:5: Our Edge running late............?


:1: Hold me back............. would be a big Win for Mott

Then the usual suspects.........

[NYPlayer]

How can you believe any number given to Quality Road when his last race was almost a half second slower than it is being credited for?

The Sheets have private clockers that hand time every race. The figures they make are very good, and I trust them completely. I don't think there's any other business out there that's doing what they're doing with the same quality.

[Bruddah]

Summer Bird's last race was outstanding. He just ran against a monster. He wins this one and completes the double like his sire.

I agree with your assesment. I also believe the off track plays to his running style. It still should be a very good race. This is one of the few times of the year I wished, I still played the NYRA circuit. I do allow myself one race a year and that's the Belmont.

Play money bet, $200 win-plc on Summer Bird. :ThmbUp:

[gm10]

How can you believe any number given to Quality Road when his last race was almost a half second slower than it is being credited for?

Or indeed any horse who ran on at the day! How can you make any reliable track variant?

[Bruddah]

i didn't buy the form for tomorrow. i have twin boys i'm dropping off at college tomorrow for their first day on monday. i may be back to watch the race, but this day has been in the making for 18 years. so this is without being able to handicap the race properly, and just by going with what i know as far as general knowledge. you know i really don't have a clear picture of kensei's abilities so i truelly don't know his abilities. i do know that summer bird was into the race more at the beginning of the haskell, and he still finished well. this improvement has inspired me to think he'll win this because i just don't think quality is ready to go 1 1/4 miles. summer/quality straight exacta 5$ if i'm back in time, and 5$ win on summer. check cj's post about a horses maixmum output as far as his fastest early pace and it not causing a drop off at the end for the main reason i like summer. this way of analyzing a race has been the basis of my handicapping for years, and is why summer wins tomorrow!!

Congratulations on your and the wife's achievment. Raising children and getting them through college is a monumental task. May they grow into honorable gentlemen and make you both proud.

I also agree with your assesment of the Travers. Best of Luck.

[fmolf]

Congratulations on your and the wife's achievment. Raising children and getting them through college is a monumental task. May they grow into honorable gentlemen and make you both proud.

I also agree with your assesment of the Travers. Best of Luck.
Bisket i dropped my youngest off yesterday have an empty nest now save my son who moved back and is now going to law school....i am looking for hold me back to charge down the center of the track and get up in the shadow of the wire ..after a speed duel up front with our edge pushing all frontrunners or being chased by the e's and e/p's

[Bochall]

Hey NY Player, interesting thoughts about Zito's horse in the Travers. Tell me, has he ever wired a GR 1 field with Garcia up???? Hmmmmm.......Belmont '08

[misscashalot]

My T winner is the ALL button.
My Bet is a double....#8 Big Drama / All

[CBedo]

My T winner is the ALL button.
My Bet is a double....#8 Big Drama / AllSo you're betting Big Drama to win at a 2 point higher takeout rate? Is there some other reason why the double would pay more than just putting it all on Big Drama to win?

[JimG]

My Travers thoughts:

Quality Road is a legitimate favorite. Our Edge will be my value play. Summer Bird will be overbet.

Jim

[CBedo]

Before looking at the race, I was thinking that I would definitely play against Quality Road. With only one sprint prep coming out of a layoff, I thought he would be a bit short, and also, he ran so well, I was thinking he would be ready for a major bounce.

But, after looking at it, I actually think he might move forward. I think he blows this field away unless someone else makes a huge move forward. From a betting standpoint, I think it will be tougher. Hopefully, the odds reflect the diversity of opinions here on the board and QR's odds are higher than I anticipate.

Good luck to all today.

[jonnielu]

#6 Summer Bird
#4 Quality Road
#1 Hold me Back
#2 Charitable Man

[11cashcall]

Only value in the race imo is Charitable Man.

[keilan]

I'm gonna try and make some $$$ in the x's Quality Road over Hold Me Back & Charitable Man.

[sally]

my tri--

Kensei
Warrior's Reward
Quality Road

:cool:

[Tom Barrister]

If I play anything, it will be Charitable Man.

[dansan]

exacta box #1hold me back#2charitable man #5our edge

[phatbastard]

same as derby.......Summer Bird

ex with Hold me back

[canleakid]

:4: over the :2: - :6: - :7:

[Tom]

Quality Road. Best in here.
Our Edge - my longshot pick.

Kensei should improve, but I doubt enough. Place horse.

Summer Bird - I might regret this in a half hour - but is a joke in here. Show at best. His last fig was inflated by Rachael - I do not buy he is that good.

Charitable Man - also ran.

[Tee]

I don't know if he wins, but I used Charitable Man. Hoping the off going will be to his liking, should have good position throughout, save ground, etc, etc.

[phatbastard]

:)

[Tom]

Autographed copies of my handicapping book will b eon Amazon Tuesday! :bang::bang::bang:


Time to head for Presque Isle.

[RXB]

same as derby.......Summer Bird

ex with Hold me back

Good call. $115 for a deuce.

[melman]

Phat---You should be :) even one of these :jump: with a cold $115.50 number. Hope u laid it in heavy. Super hit.

Tom--Have no regrets my man in horse racing we are all wrong more often than right. Unless your Anderon and playing all 3/5's that is. ;) Good Mohawk card tonight with elim's for big money races. They must get 1st or 2nd to qualify for the big cash finals next week.

[bisket]

i wish i coulda played it :bang: thanks for the good wishes bruddah and fmolf. with twins it always been feast or famine. i mentioned hold me back on a thread last week. he's always one of the those late runners that fill out your tri, but he got up for second. i don't think i woulda played it as a box though if i played a tri. with the win bet on summer i might have been a couple bucks in the plus. if johnny lou boxed that tri he had a good hit. have fun at the window collecting without paying taxes ;)

[Space Monkey]

Proud day biskit. Congrats to your wife on a great job :p . Ok, you too.

I didn't bet a dime today so don't anybody here cal me a red-boarder.
When it rains like this, I don't bet. Tomorrow, if it stops raining will be worse. From my experiences there, the transition from sloppy/muddy/good is the absolute worst when it comes to formful racing.

I couldn't see how QR could go 1 1/4 off that 1 prep. No foundation. I've read that people say SB would be overbet. 5-2 was an absolute gift that I was too stubborn to take. My bad!! :(

I never would have had HMB. Downward form cycle.

CJ's Dad, I use the same info. Kensai was on a 4 race upward trend. Thats about the max 95% of the time. He figured to regress.

[cj's dad]

Proud day biskit. Congrats to your wife on a great job :p . Ok, you too.

I didn't bet a dime today so don't anybody here cal me a red-boarder.
When it rains like this, I don't bet. Tomorrow, if it stops raining will be worse. From my experiences there, the transition from sloppy/muddy/good is the absolute worst when it comes to formful racing.

I couldn't see how QR could go 1 1/4 off that 1 prep. No foundation. I've read that people say SB would be overbet. 5-2 was an absolute gift that I was too stubborn to take. My bad!! :(

I never would have had HMB. Downward form cycle.

CJ's Dad, I use the same info. Kensai was on a 4 race upward trend. Thats about the max 95% of the time. He figured to regress.

Yes he did regress !! I did think that he would continue to improve. Off trax are the great unknown. The off track is not an excuse and I will keep your 4 race upswing in mind; I had not noticed that-thanks !!

[NYPlayer]

Hey NY Player, interesting thoughts about Zito's horse in the Travers. Tell me, has he ever wired a GR 1 field with Garcia up???? Hmmmmm.......Belmont '08

I think the condition of the track played a role in the outcome, but still, the Zito Special had nothing.

My true thoughts on this race have been flushed down a commode in Manhattan. Luckily, I stayed late for simulcasting and hit the 3rd at Evangeline.

[Space Monkey]

Off trax are the great unknown.[QUOTE]

So right. Thats why I just move on to another track on days like yesterday. While I picked SB to win the race, I never would have had any exotic as I would have had HMB no higher than 3rd. I've found that passing on days like yesterday helps my bankroll.

[bisket]

space monkey the wife gets most of the credit. she was home with them until they were in high school. thanks. summer was muleskiner's horse since the derby and he didn't play him. i emailed him and told him bird was going to run a good one. he didn't like the way summer was running closer to the pace, and thought it would detract from his race. in the haskell he ran a faster opening 1/2 and 3/4 and still came home below 12 second furs. hey what's not to like about that. summer has one more good one in him. lets see where he turns up next. he'll be the chalk next out :ThmbDown:

[bisket]

about the odds. i kinda figured when mine that bird dropped that summer's odds would be short. they had similar numbers and figured to be similar type plays. so it wasn't suprising that most who would play mtb put the $ on summer, but 5-2 was still reasonable imop

[cj]

110 Beyer for Summer Bird.

[WinterTriangle]

I think the condition of the track played a role in the outcome, but still, the Zito Special had nothing.

From what I read somewhere, bad feet and works in bar shoes most of time?