LK's (new) - "STAR-DO"...(beta)

[LottaKash]

In Asian martial-arts, "DO" means; " the way of ", and so, since handicapping is a a fight or a way to find the winners of a race, I aptly named my new Harness-Handicapping "method" "Star-DO".... "The way of the stars"....:cool:
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I started this thread with the intention of posting my "Star-DO" picks, in an ongoing thread.... Of course, I will be tweaking, and tuning these ratings, as I go along and learn and correct my misgivings and mistakes....There will be no redboarding or shoulda, coulda, wouldas....The SD picks will stand on their own merit...
Since I was going to record them anyway, I thought that this would be a "fun" way to get the job done....
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For the past couple of years, I have been tinkering and writing, piecemeal, a book on handicapping the harness races, my way....And my "DO" (way) is all that this will be about...
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After a 40-year, love/hate, roller coaster ride, in handicapping the harness races, I can honestly say that, the "basics" are all in the bank now....What I mean is that, "always" being, a "pencil and paper" handicapper (and now electronically, of course), I believe that I have a very thorough understanding and a fairly accurate interpretation and opinion of what is presented, solely, in the "printed" past perfromances.... And so, earlier this year (09), Trackmaster, came out with a new iteration of the past-performances.....It is called "PACE-PERFORMANCES"....I took to this new look and feel, like a duck goes in the water....They present many new numbers, and time-splits, that were just not there before in the older versions of the past performances.....All the work that I was too lazy to do myself, for all these years, is right there now, and it has created a "Re-Birth" in the curent state of "my" handicapping....It was always what had been lacking for me, for so long....
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Since Harness horses, run at very frequent intervals, one might say that, a horse is (with few exceptions), only as good as His "last race(s)" in his current form-cycle...

So "SD" is mostly based and grounded in a horse's last race, and/or, "usually" no more than the 3d race back.....

It is "PACE" based & grounded, and IS the"FIRST" and most relevant number in SD, and everything else is either additive or negative to the horses "Current Pace" or "STARS"....

What has been always missing tho, was a way to quantify my opinion in a numerical or cryptic sort of way......."Star-DO" (SD) is the end result of piecing all that information together....(pace numbers, and handicapping basics, and angles)

It is based on "facts" & "numbers", with a tad of "art" & "intuition" thrown in for good measure...

So the "marriage" has finally been consumated, let the "BETA" begin.....:jump:
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If this SD "beta" test succeeds, then the "book" will happen, if not ?....
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stay tuned, if you care to...

best,

[LottaKash]

This post will deal with the makings of the "STAR-DO" (SD).....

SD is "very" comphrehensive in it's scope....Class, Form, Speed Ratings, Racing Position, Driver, and all my Pet and Time honored & tested Angles are "all" questioned, interpreted & included in the final Stars-Rating....

Please keep in mind, as with all of us, I will sometime miss a subtle nuance or blatantly ovelook some obvious fact, but overall, the accuracy of SD is very reliable....

It all begins, tho, with a horses's pace numbers and time splits, and everything else revolves and relies on a horses history and his current (or ultimate) ability to reproduce those numbers..
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A first look at SD, a ....(4***. (EML).****),: this would be a good example of an ultimate SD horse...I know it is very cryptic looking, but as you will soon see, it is both simple and very revealing in it's true significance.....(notice "all" the stars, this is what SD is all about, the number "first" and then the "stars".)...
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The best SD horse is a 4* horse, followed by a 3*, 2*, and finally a 1* horse....This is the pecking order of the contenders in a race....And, we are always trying to find the 3*, and 4* horses...

Still, each race is its "own" category, the "first star number" is only a "reflection" of the pace of a horse...followed by a "star" of anything that pertains to speed, such as the TM-SRing, or a horse with a superior middle fraction(s) or a horse that is, just the class of the field, and has shown superior stars in races further back, and had no need to use those stars in his most recent races....

So, a horse with a 3*** would be a horse with the best pace, middle fractions and speed rating...If he didn't have the middle or superior SR, then he would just be a 3* SD horse

Keep in mind tho, that a 1* SD horse, can be just as powerful a contender in his "respective race" as a 4* horse in his respective race.....

You can find a 3* or 4* (these are the best bets) horse, in "any" given class of race, on any given day, and that is the beauty of the SD-way....
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Next in the SD-rating will be a reflection of a horse's particular "running style", based on his last or no more than his 3d race back (with excuses for not using the last race)...This is the style he "USED" to garner that superor "Pace-*" rating....

E = Early running style...
M = Middle running style...
L = Late running style...

So, a horse with a (4** .(EML).**), is obviously a horse that can race in any style that he pleases, as his pace is superior in every call of his race....

A 3*. (L), is a horse that did his best racing from the 3/8th's & on...thus, he is labeled (L) or a 3* .(E) raced best from the start to the 3/4's or better...

A 2* .(E) is a horse that made his pace superiority in the first half of the race...thus the label (E)

A 2*. (M) is a horse that raced to his pace # , powerfully in the middle portion of the race...thus, the (M) label....

A 1*.(E) or a 1*.(L)....are horses that had produced the best Pace-*, in their race, and despite the low rating, should be considered a top contender...and one to beat, if the track is playing that way tonite....

I wanted to include this aspect (running style) into the Ratings, as often enough, when making picks ahead of time, there is no way to deteremine ahead of time, what significant "bias", may be at work at any particular track on any given nite.....(this is a key problem with all "public" handicappers)

So, if a horse earned top "star" (pace) honors in his respective race, he may not have any advantage at all ,if the track isn't playing to his running style....

Still, most 3* & 4* horses can set, maintain, and overcome almost any pace scenario that is thrown at them tonite....It gets a bit more difficult when the stars decrease in significance.....such as; a 1* horse that needs the lead or a closers bias to to do well, in tonite's contest, so he may not get his race and will be unable to show his ability ...
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The 3d part of the "SD-rating", contains all the relevant handicapping variables, the Quality(class and back class), the inherant Abilities and the Formfulness of the horse & any Angles that may be present....

So, a horse could look like (3**.(L). ***)... this horse not only is superior in his late pace, but he "also" has some other powerful handicapping factors that give his pace numbers more confidence & reliability, as he is a live one !!....Run to the windows, if you get your price, and the track is playing to that style, on a horse that looks like this...:jump:
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So, to summarize a bit, It doesn't really matter, all the time, that a horse is not a 3* or 4*....It really comes down to a horse's respective race, as the SD rating is merely a reflection of the competition of "his" race, and has nothing to do with any other race....

A (1**.(E or M or L).*** can be quite a good contender....as his competition may not be all that good to begin with, and that (1*) is enough to handle that bunch in his, today's race..... A 1* horse can often lead to a good score !...

Generally, the 3* & 4* horses are the best bets, but that is being quite tight and spotty,, so, if one needs more action, and who doesn't, there is more than one way to win....lower starred horses need extra stars to pull it off tho..
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As things progress, I believe that the SD-ratings will only get better...
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If you need to know more, well, you can always buy the "book", if I've got this right...haha...:jump:

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

LK: Good luck with your SD System for picking winners.

Hopefully a book will follow soon.

Best Of Luck


Sea Biscuit.

[LottaKash]

Hey Biscuit, thx for the kind words of encouragement....:)

best,

[Sinner369]

Kash.........I admire people who not afraid to express their beliefs, opinions, or even their systems......but I would like them to explain why their methods or systems did not work........sort of explain why the process failed (or succeeded)!

This way I can learn from your years of experience. It's easy to pick a horse to win.................but please state why you selected that horse in the first place.


sinner

[LottaKash]

Wed. 8/26/09....

Chester....Race-6 - #6...UP FRONT GEORGE..... (2***.(E).**)

I may have some others, later on, but I am running out of time today, to do it accurately...

best,

[JBmadera]

Hey LK - will be fun to follow another one of your threads - they're always very insightful.

thx for taking the time to post your thoughts.

jb

[LottaKash]

Kash.........I admire people who not afraid to express their beliefs, opinions, or even their systems......but I would like them to explain why their methods or systems did not work........sort of explain why the process failed (or succeeded)!

This way I can learn from your years of experience. It's easy to pick a horse to win.................but please state why you selected that horse in the first place.


sinner

Sinner, I think I kind of explained it, in my opening 2-posts in this thread, at least to the point, that you should kinda know ,what you are looking at and what the symbols equate to....Otherwise, you must read the book...Except that, there is no book to read yet...

I am just proofing the whole thing as of now....Just tracking the picks and having some fun with it....

It is very hard to equate so many variables and years of handicapping into a one liner, without using any words....But, that is what I am attempting to do here....The SD-formula tells the whole story in as brief a space as possible and necessary....

Sorry, that is the best that is going to happen here...

best,

[LottaKash]

Hey LK - will be fun to follow another one of your threads - they're always very insightful.

thx for taking the time to post your thoughts.

jb

Thx, JB, I am glad someone liked that stuff....This stuff will be "less" insightful tho, I think, than the other thread....

You will be on my "first list" for the autographed copies of my book....HaHa....If this fails, then it is back to the drawing board for a re-thought and renewed quantification of the facts, and the book will remain a work, still in progress....

best,

[Ray2000]

Good system Up Front George$10.40 to win


Go Johnny, hope there's more:jump:

[LottaKash]

Good system Up Front George$10.40 to win


Go Johnny, hope there's more:jump:

Thx Ray, there will be more....After all, it's "the holy grail"....:D

best,

[camfella]

Time to quit! 100% success!You will never beat that! but...what is your prefered wager? I think wagering is where most of us fall down and cant get up(sorry about the old reference LK), also when do you quit? CF

[cliffyy]

Thx Ray, there will be more....After all, it's "the holy grail"....:D

best,
`

lets test it for freehold on thurday do the thusday races at freehold and post them.


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[LottaKash]

`

lets test it for freehold on thurday do the thusday races at freehold and post them.


:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

Sorry, cliffyy, I stopped betting Fhld many moons ago....Years ago, I was a regular there.....but that track is weird these days....Too much insider stuff, for me...

best,

[LottaKash]

Time to quit! 100% success!You will never beat that! but...what is your prefered wager? I think wagering is where most of us fall down and cant get up(sorry about the old reference LK), also when do you quit? CF

Cam, time to quit...haha...just getting started....

Being primarily a spot player, for the past couple of years, I have been averaging aroung 40% winners and better than 65% place ....I truly believe that this formula will beat that, if not in win % than in ROI....

The past two weeks results, have commanded me to move forward with this project...Some of the "bombers" that have been identified using this "new" method, has gotten me startled a bit....Call me chicken, for not having the confidence thus far to bet some of my ratings, but without redboarding, I can honestly say, that many double digit horses are possible, handicapping this way....Still, it may be too early in the game to make any sweeping assumptions, but thus far the results have amazed me....I will be stepping out a bit more as the days pass....Much of this is new to me, and for the sake of the truth, I am trying to become a bit more religious in projecting the "stars" and such....I have most of it down to a science, tho,,,

When to quit ?....NEVER....even if this doesn't pan out, I will go down swingin'..

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

Wed. 8/26/09....

Chester....Race-6 - #6...UP FRONT GEORGE..... (2***.(E).**)

I may have some others, later on, but I am running out of time today, to do it accurately...

best,



Great job on Up Front George. John. Congrats.

We want more!!!:jump::jump::jump:

Sea Biscuit

[Sea Biscuit]

John: Do you mind giving the running line of Up Front George along with the fractional times.

I am just trying to understand what makes you decide to give a horse a 2 instead of a 4.

Thanks in advance

Sea Biscuit.

[LottaKash]

I am just trying to understand what makes you decide to give a horse a 2 instead of a 4. Sea Biscuit

thx, Biscuit...
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1 2 1 1 1 2/nk...... 26:2 54:1 121:4 1:51.....
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I'll bet you are second guessing my base-rating of 2....?

The rating of 2***. may not be what you think iit is....It is not a projection of power or prowess vs. the others....It is a result of "HIS" pace vs. the others...He is the leader of the pack in his pace numbers, and that basically, his 2 can be depended upon more so, vs. the others, who have similiar pace numbers but not necessarily the best...

I can't divulge much more than that, as presently, it is very proprietary, and will be included in the book....But know this, that any horse that can score any pace number from a lowly 1*....to a 4****, is the best in "HIS" respective race.... And, any (*) that is added to that number only strengthens his superior pace rating vs. the others...

Many other horses can come close, but to make a wager, there can only be "one" pace winner in each race or else no bets....Most races are very contentious...and on some days you will be hard pressed to find any horse with an edge or an advantage....yet, on other days, they flow like water....You never know until you get to see a fresh program....It is hard to project ahead of time, or at least until you get the Pace-Performances, and compare each horse's pace and fractional numbers...(remember the work I was always too lazy to do)

Even with the numbers that are supplied in the Pace-Perfromances, there is a certain amount of "freeform" interpretation involved in the base/pace number....It took me quite a good while of manipulation, speculation and premature ejaculation until I got it right.....At least I think it is right....Still there is always much danger when making "freeform" decisions....But, no matter how good a handicapper one may be, there are still decisions that must be made....This is what makes this game so much "fun" and challenging....And, the beauty of it is, it never ends....:jump:

So for now, this thread is more for showcasing the power of "Star-DO" rather than a "teaching/sharing tool"....I always love to share my information with any one who would listen, just not this, as of now...

For now, just enjoy it, and you "can" even bet on them, as they are almost always live horses, that should try....

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

thx, Biscuit...
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1 2 1 1 1 2/nk...... 26:2 54:1 121:4 1:51.....
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Wow is all I can say. The fractions were 26:2--27:4--27:3--29:3.

This horse expended so much energy in the first three quarters of the race and still finished by a neck second it is unbelievable that they let this horse go off at 4-1.

Way to go John


Sea Biscuit.

[LottaKash]

Wow is all I can say. Sea Biscuit.

4/1 was a nice number, and the crowd does make mistakes....they fell in love with the #8 horse who came out of the same race as this one (he finished 5th in that race)...they bet the 8 down to even money...go figure

It was a beautiful thing to see...the 6 sat a 4-hole trip, until just past the 3/8ths, and just floated out there, first-over, until the 3/4's when Nappy cracked down on the 6 and got eyeball to eyeball with the 8 by the top of lane, and then went right on by, for a handy and vey safe win..

best,.

[LottaKash]

Wed. 8/26/09....

Chester....Race-6 - #6...UP FRONT GEORGE..... (2***.(E).**)





SD Bet #1-.....B/WPS- $6.00... won...$10.40.....5.40.....2.80

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SD box score.....1..1..0..0 -


SD total wagers.....1
SD total amt. bet.....$6.00 Win $2.00.......Place$2.00.......Show$2.00
Total amt returned...$19.20 rtn..$10.40... rtn....$5.40........rtn...$2.80

[Sea Biscuit]

4/1 was a nice number, and the crowd does make mistakes....they fell in love with the #8 horse who came out of the same race as this one (he finished 5th in that race)...they bet the 8 down to even money...go figure

It was a beautiful thing to see...the 6 sat a 4-hole trip, until just past the 3/8ths, and just floated out there, first-over, until the 3/4's when Nappy cracked down on the 6 and got eyeball to eyeball with the 8 by the top of lane, and then went right on by, for a handy and vey safe win..

best,.

Besides the tote board was talking too. He opened up as 4/5 favorite and took tote action for much of the time. It was only in the last minute he floated to 4-1.

Best

Sea Biscuit.

[LottaKash]

Besides the tote board was talking too. He opened up as 4/5 favorite and took tote action for much of the time. It was only in the last minute he floated to 4-1.

Best

Sea Biscuit.

I always like to see a "strong" vote of confidence, on my plays, somewhere in the wagering, and that was it...I knew I was live...Even if he floated up to 20/1, the signal was in...

best,

[LottaKash]

SD Bet #1-.....B/WPS- $6.00... won...$10.40.....5.40.....2.80

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SD box score.....1..1..0..0 -


SD total wagers.....1
SD total amt. bet.....$6.00 ....Win $2.00.......Place$2.00.......Show$2.00
Total amt returned $18.60.. $10.40... ...rtn....$5.40.......rtn...$2.80

**corrected total amt retd from $19.20 to $18.60

[JBmadera]

sign me up for an autographed copy!

good luck today guys,

jb

[LottaKash]

Thur...8/27/09

MR......13R...... SD-Pick-(#2) .......#5 - DEE MAGIC MAN.... (2**.(L).***)

Making his 2d start since April....10yr.old, some back class, seemed fit at first asking, and was parked the mile and still had go at the end...

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

Good luck with the Magic Man, John

HPI does not even carry Monticello:confused:.

Hope he comes thru for ya.

Sea Biscuit

[LottaKash]

""STAR-DO" for Thur....8/27/09


MEA........1R.......SD-Pick-(#3) .......#3 - WYNDRIDGE BLISS.....(2**.(EL).*)


MEA........7R.......SD-Pick-(#4) .......#6 - STAR OF INDIA.......... (2**(ML).***)


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YR..........1R.......SD-Pick-(#5) .......#6 - KING BRANDON...........(2*.(E).***)


YR..........4R.......SD-Pick-(#6) .......#3 - LEAH........................(4*(EML).**)


YR..........12R......SD-Pick-(#7) ......#8 - BABY BOY GRIN..........(3***(L).***)


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[Ray2000]

Johnny... You're giving away too many :)

Dee Magic Man................. gotta love him if > 5/2

First start last week after 4 1/2 month layoff

P6> 8º 7º 7º 6 fin4 (2½)
29.8 29.8 29.2 29.6 1:58.4


Seriously, I hope you explain how you're establishing E | M | L

or I'll be forced to buy the book:)

[LottaKash]

Johnny... You're giving away too many :)

Dee Magic Man................. gotta love him if > 5/2

First start last week after 4 1/2 month layoff

P6> 8º 7º 7º 6 fin4 (2½)
29.8 29.8 29.2 29.6 1:58.4


Seriously, I hope you explain how you're establishing E | M | L

or I'll be forced to buy the book:)

The "book", autographed, of course....:cool:

best,

[andicap]

LK,
As a former "trotters" fan I have a soft spot for these types of ratings and I commend you for your hard work. It will be fun to track these picks and watch the races live. good luck with your project.

As far as your ratings, I'm wondering if people are a little confused by one thing -- and I might have this all wrong but I'll take a shot: Only one horse in each race gets a rating.

[LottaKash]

LK,
As a former "trotters" fan I have a soft spot for these types of ratings and I commend you for your hard work. It will be fun to track these picks and watch the races live. good luck with your project.

As far as your ratings, I'm wondering if people are a little confused by one thing -- and I might have this all wrong but I'll take a shot: Only one horse in each race gets a rating.

Andicap, people must understand this...This is an experiment....This "methodology", as opposed to it being a "system", thus far, is the clumination or end result of my current research and imagination....

For now, I am attempting to find the (imo) "best" and "most qualified" horse, "First"....

The SD-Rating, is just a "reflection" or "sum-total" of my interpretation of any horse's "pace figures", melded with any other handicapping factors that I have deemed important enough to have an impact on the form & performance of a horse, and/or the outcome of a race...

It is kind of a "shorthand", or the reasons, for my SD-pick(s)....So, instead of using a bunch of words to explain why I think that any particular horse, in any particular race, may have the best chance of winning, I simply devised this "shorthand" to replace the words....It is just my "opinion", expressed cryptically...

I am toying with the idea, further on down the road, of making an SD-rating for more than one horse in each race.....For now tho, I am concentrating my energies on just coming up with one horse per race....

My SD-Ratings, are no different than any other "spot play" horse, that I may have shared with others in this forum, in times past...

Also, please remember this, The "SD-rating" may not necessarily, be transferrable to another race....The SD-rating is just for "this race", for the "pick-horse" vs. the others in "that" race....

That is the "why", of only one horse per race....

Also, I am not envisioning myself in ever being a "public-handicapper" or "tout", I am just having some fun with a bunch of new ideas....I usually mark down, in a notebook, the reasons for my "spot-plays", now I just use the SD-rating, as it cuts down on the amount of words needed, and tells me how weak or strong my play may have been...(I think, haha)

My notes on a horse in his race, may look something like this.....(2**.(ML).***)...4RH.10. JSTR..GYE...7531 (ML)=.....This horse was the sitting a 4-hole rail trip till the half, went first-over from there, and had the lead at the top of the stretch, and said Good-bye, winning in a romp ! and the fractions of the race were approx. like, 27..55..1:23..1:51... This tells me at a glance what types of "running styles and fractions were winning the races on any given nite...So, in this case, his SD-rating was labelled M (middle) & L (late running)in his/that rating, and that is exactly how he won this race as well, and in those fractions....

best,

[LottaKash]

Thur...8/27/09

MR......13R...... SD-Pick-(#2) .......#5 - DEE MAGIC MAN.... (2**.(L).***)

Making his 2d start since April....10yr.old, some back class, seemed fit at first asking, and was parked the mile and still had go at the end...

best,

Ran a good race, was parked from the 3/8's on, and closed like a rocket coming up bit short, with the best last 1/4 of the bunch....Finished a game 2d...paying $3.80 and 2.50.... (he was live and well meant)

[LottaKash]

""STAR-DO" for Thur....8/27/09










MEA........1R.......SD-Pick-(#3) .......#3 - WYNDRIDGE BLISS.....(2**.(EL).*)
While he ran the best last 1/4 of the bunch, he was way out of position early on, and closed well enough for a 4th place finish, while running out of racetrack...
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MEA........7R.......SD-Pick-(#4) .......#6 - STAR OF INDIA.......... (2**(ML).***)
Palone, left a bit at the start, and then thought better of it, and was then close to the trailing position for most of the mile...Was widest, deepest, and closing the most, in fact he was flying in the lane, passing the others like crazy, except for the leader (winner),but came up a bit short, even tho his last 1/4 was a full second better than the field's, finished....2D...paying $3.40...2.60
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YR..........1R.......SD-Pick-(#5) .......#6 - KING BRANDON...........(2*.(E).***)

Was a judge's SCRATCH................
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YR..........4R.......SD-Pick-(#6) .......#3 - LEAH........................(4*(EML).**)
This horse cut the mile, and I thought that he would race from off the pace...Tired a bit and finished 3D....paying...$2.30
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YR..........12R......SD-Pick-(#7) ......#8 - BABY BOY GRIN..........(3***(L).***)
This horse was making a huge dip in class, and I really believed that he would've traded in some of his class & pace numbers, for a good contending position early on....but he trailed thruout, fanned the widest and deepest, and closed gamely, with the best last 1/4 of the bunch, finishing 3D....paying....$2.80.....


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Good news and bad news....The good, I didn't play any of these picks, the prices simply were too low to offer any value at all, and the bad: (for vanity's sake) They were the picks, and they have to stand and be counted.....

Without making any excuses, the fractions in all of the races, were just average if not pokey, making it very hard for any of these picks to advance from their uncontending early positions....They all raced "live late", but it doesn't really matter.....Another nite, who knows ?..
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I have a confession of sorts to make....Since my inaugual pick had won so convincingly, I may have been full-of-it today, and perhaps my "vanity" and confidence may have had something to do with my SD-picks for the day....

In retrospect, after going back to the form, and searching for answers, I believe now, that I may have been pushing a bit for the day.....Some of my assessments of the contenders may have been a bit more closer to my picks assessment than I had originally thought, at first....I apologize for that, still, I made the decisions and they have to stand....I won't apologize too much tho, they were "all" live and game to the end of their miles...

I just hate to lose so many, I would've thought that 1 or 2 of them, at least, would score a win...

================================================== ========

SD box score.........6..1..2..2..(1-scr)


Total Bet.....$36.00......TBW...$12.00........TBP...$12. 00.......TBS...$12.00
Total Rtn.....$36.00......Trtn....$10.40........Trtn..$1 2.60.......Trtn...$13.00
.................$.even......+/-...-$1.60.................+.60..................+1.00

All that for that ?.....:jump:


Stay tuned, if you care to....:rolleyes:

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

day....

I apologize for that, still, I made the decisions and they have to stand....I won't apologize too much tho, they were "all" live and game to the end of their miles...

best,

No need to apologize, John. It was just one bad day at the office and we all have that on a regular basis. Just don"t let that get to you.

Expecting to see a lot more winners in the near future.

My very best to you.

Sea Biscuit.

[LottaKash]

No need to apologize, John. It was just one bad day at the office and we all have that on a regular basis. Just don"t let that get to you.

Expecting to see a lot more winners in the near future.

My very best to you.

Sea Biscuit.

Thx Biscuit, actually, it doesn't get to me as much as you would think...It is just that I want "Kash", and I want it now....:jump:

Yesterday, I caught two decent ones at Chester, only it was "raining" there, and I didn't want to stick my neck out too much, in posting them....Thing is, they were both "high" starred horses, a 3*, & a 4*, and they performed just like the track surface didn't matter at all....One was with an early speed bias (WBIS), and he wired them, and the other, against the WBIS, coming from just about dead last to fly past all of them at the wire (the 4* horse)....The "power' of the 3's & 4's, is simply amazing at times......

More later, if I can get to a program soon.....I've got alot of honey-do's today...And some people over later...Yeesh, don't they understand ?....

best,

[LottaKash]

Been a bunch of days since I've posted any "Star-Do" picks....

I have been up my ears in commitments as of late, and I haven't been able to get near a program until close to post-time each nite....Had some modest success' with a few along the way....

I have been researching some interesting slants to the SD....But, not being a spreadsheet type of guy, I have to keep it all in my head, I have added and subtracted a few nuances to the SD-way of handicapping the Harness....It has improved it a some degreee...
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Funny thing, yesterday, I had about an hour's time to do the races ahead of time for Pocono, and so with all the work done, I had found a really good 3* SD-pick, so, I sat at my machine waiting and watching for that race to come up, as I didn't bet him ahead of time (I'' will explain about that in a sec)....and the next thing I know, I am opening my eyes only to see the replay of that race and then the brief flash of the mutuels of that race.....All I could say was "DAMN ...$12.40 for the win".....Funny how when you get olld, ain't it ?....

The thing is, any SD horse that is a 3* or 4*, is a fair bet at even-money, so I don't know why I just didn't play the horse and be done with it.....He was the 3/1 m.l. fave, and I really thought he would be below fair value of 1/1, and I decided to wait to make sure.....haha....bite me.....:eek:
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Tonite @Mohawk ....the 3RD Race....One of two divisions of the "Simcoe-Stakes"....#7 - WINNING MISTER.....3.5***.(EML),***....There are 3-other horses in here (the 3-9-10) that I think have very legitimate chances to win this race, but Winning Mister is still, my play....

This guy is just coming into the best days of his entire young career....Last week, He was really up against it, facing "Muscle Hill" in the "American Natiional" at Balmoral Park.....He raced out of his skin in that one, and finished 4th to the champ....The thing was, even tho the rest of the field was losing ground to the champ in that race, this guy, far back early, was closing a TON and actually was gaining in the lane along with the champ...An awesonme effort, I thought...The race before that he also ran a 3.25**.(EL).** in the $55K "Oliver-Stakes" at Indy....he wired them in that one as the $.80/1 fave.....He has run back to back a 102 & 101 TM_SR's in both of those nice races of his.....He has had some gait issues a few races back, but after those two big-miles, I suspect that is all done with....But, as with any 3yo-trotting horse, ya never know....Still, with not much quick early speed in this race, I believe he can get a good position early, using his good gate speed....He should be there tonite....
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Balmoral Park....12TH Race....#9 - ARTOMATIC PILOT....This guy is making his 6th start since coming back off of vacation from June....His SD-rating of 3***(EML).*** is tops over these.....In his last race he was trailing 9th by some 16-lengths and ending up closing like a Rocket, to win that race...He ran his last two-half-miles in 54:3 & 54:2 and his last 3/4's was timed in 1:21:2 Yikes !!.(for a $15K-claimer !)....The race before that, was the crackdown race since his vacation, and they let him run right to the front and he wired a much classier field than this, just missing the win by a "nk"....Normally I don't like a closer type from the extreme outside, but with his good new-found early speed, and his perceived class edge, he should get a good early seat vs. this bunch.... The crowd will probably be all over this one, as they love this type of horse at BmP....Still, He should be right there at the end, but the price ??....Ya never know....?
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Good luck "all", with all of your plays tonite, but, these will be mine....:jump:

best,

[LottaKash]

I failed to mention that "Dave Miller" is slated to drive #7 Winning Mister in the 3d@Mhk

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

------------------------------
and the next thing I know, I am opening my eyes only to see the replay of that race and then the brief flash of the mutuels of that race.....All I could say was "DAMN ...$12.40 for the win".....Funny how when you get olld, ain't it ?....

best,

Well John you should get one of those devises that you put on behind your ear and soon as you start dozing off and bend your neck, a bell goes.

I used to have one of those when I had to drive long distances.

Best of Luck with your picks

Sea Biscuit

[LottaKash]

Well John you should get one of those devises that you put on behind your ear and soon as you start dozing off and bend your neck, a bell goes.

I used to have one of those when I had to drive long distances.

Best of Luck with your picks

Sea Biscuit


Unnnnhhh...what ?...I'm up, I'm up....:sleeping:

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

Another one in the bag for the master handicapper.

Good work John Congrats.

Sea Biscuit

[Stick]

LK

Nice call at Balmoral $11.6

EX with a logical horse for second payed nice also.:)

[LottaKash]

Thx, Guys, every now and then, they win.....

And Biscuit, my wife calls me "the master", but it ain't about handicapping.....:D ...Can you guess of what it may be ?

She wanted me to do something today, but the more she nags me, the less inclined I am to do anything she feels I need to do..... She loves to have an agenda, and when she doesn't, she will try to give me one...I told her that, (even tho I am retired), "today is my day off"-"no can do"...:jump:

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

Thx, Guys, every now and then, they win.....

And Biscuit, my wife calls me "the master", but it ain't about handicapping.....:D ...Can you guess of what it may be ?

She wanted me to do something today, but the more she nags me, the less inclined I am to do anything she feels I need to do..... She loves to have an agenda, and when she doesn't, she will try to give me one...I told her that, (even tho I am retired), "today is my day off"-"no can do"...:jump:

best,

Well John one out of two ain't bad.

Maybe you should let your wife read some of the accolades you get on this forum maybe then she will give you more time for your favorite pastime and not nag you for chores to be done.

Best


SB

[LottaKash]

Well John one out of two ain't bad.

Maybe you should let your wife read some of the accolades you get on this forum maybe then she will give you more time for your favorite pastime and not nag you for chores to be done.

Best


SB

Hey Biscuit, actually, my wife is a very good sport about all of this, she gives me plenty of time, in fact all the time that I need....

She gets to share in the proceeds when they are there....I guess that is why...

best,

[LottaKash]

Just wanted to update this thread a bit....

"Star-Do" is still a reality, in fact, more so now than before...Been busy and ailing all at the same time....Trying to catch up with it all....
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Tonite @Mohawk ....the 3RD Race....One of two divisions of the "Simcoe-Stakes"....#7 - WINNING MISTER.....3.5***.(EML),***....There are 3-other horses in here (the 3-9-10) that I think have very legitimate chances to win this race, but Winning Mister is still, my play....

Off @4/1...Left to quick command, was jumped by the 3/8ths and was going backwards in the lane.....I may have made a mistake on this one, and he may be just a notch below the ones who beat him, or he may have suffered through a mini-bounce off of those hot fracitons when he was racing against "Muscle Hill" in his previous race....In any event I have dubbed this type of (3*) play as "Chancellor's Syndrome", as many young horses, particularly "trotters" suffer through this type of sequence, before they find their true "tops" and "ability level".....I am working on this....

I would add tho, 3 races later, Winning Mister, looking like he had recovered from his "C/S" @Delaware on "jug-day", goes off at 4/1 again, and was a(3*) horse again...He was on the engine the whole way around, until he "bolted", and I mean bolted, right infront of the horse who was following him who was beginning take out from off the rail at the top of the lane, and WM almost caused a wreck.... And I mean a "big-time" wreck...It could have been catastrphic, but thankfully it turned out ok...He then got back on his stride, and he was coming back like a "rocket", and yet he still missed out for the win at the wire, in a close one (1/2-L)....This horse owes me money now....:jump:

#9 won it...($6.40)
#3 was 2d....
#10 was 3d....

0 = $=return...


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Balmoral Park....12TH Race....#9 - ARTOMATIC PILOT....This guy is making his 6th start since coming back off of vacation from June....His SD-rating of 3***(EML).*** is tops over these.....In his last race he was trailing 9th by some 16-lengths and ending up closing like a Rocket, to win that race...He ran his last two-half-miles in 54:3 & 54:2 and his last 3/4's was timed in 1:21:2 Yikes !!.(for a $15K-claimer !)....The race before that, was the crackdown race since his vacation, and they let him run right to the front and he wired a much classier field than this, just missing the win by a "nk"....Normally I don't like a closer type from the extreme outside, but with his good new-found early speed, and his perceived class edge, he should get a good early seat vs. this bunch.... The crowd will probably be all over this one, as they love this type of horse at BmP....Still, He should be right there at the end, but the price ??....Ya never know....?

After that disappointment on the afternoon, I decided since I had a really goodone that nite, to play a little catchup, and I wagered more on this one than I usually do....I had some things to do that eve, so I knew I wouldn't be there "live" to see and bet, so I bet early, to make sure....(I never want to miss out on a 3* or 4* play.)

Litlle did I know at the time of the wager, that the regularly scheduled driver, Brandon Simpson, did not show up for that race, as he was stuck @ DuQuoin on "World Trotting Derby" day,featuring "Muscle Hill"... And because of all the rain, an almost a 6-hour delay ensued, and Simpson had a bunch of stakes races he had to drive in and of course stayed there...(He did quite well in most of them)....

So, I am stuck with a replacement pilot, Rodney Allums a 6% driver, replacing a 13%-er (a capable number on a Big-track)....So I go to Youbet to watch the replay, only to see my 3*-pick, not leave and is trailing early in the race, in fact almost the whole race.....At the top of the lane he fans out widest and deepest of all, and comes flying down the lane to just get the "WIN" by a long "Nose"......The 3* horses are that good most of the time, and this win proved it to me, once again.....

Won......$11.60.....4.80.....500 (ok), and the exacta with the 6/5 fave, came back $44.00
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SD box score.........8..2...2..2..(1-scr)...25%w...50%p....75%s


Total Bet.....$48.00......TBW...$16.00........TBP...$16 00.......TBS...$16.00
Total Rtn.....$61.20......Trtn....$22.00........Trtn..$2 1.20.......Trtn...$18.00
................+13.20......+/-...+6.00...............+$5.20..................+2. 00

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More to follow, soon....follow the "way of the stars"

best,

[LottaKash]

Been doing a lot of "Star-DO" research lately, and have some new thoughts and plans, and will share when I am clear enough, so as not to bore anyone.....

For the time being, I will be concentrating only on 3* horses, as they are the best-bets (4* horses are the best, but they are few and far in between, and usually are the champs or racing in the top classes)....3* horses are usually able to set, maintain or overcome most any paces that they are up against in their races tonite....Often enough, they are able to change their racing style to suit almost any occasion, be it, leading (when not doing so lately or ever), going first over, or closing like a rocket....They are even able to overcome an "off-track" on most nites (I needed to find out about off-tracks)....

The 2* horses have their moments, as well as the 1* horses, but of course, the luck factor is needed more for these types, as well as, the risk factor goes up when the star power goes down....I am making up some new do's and don'ts in that regard....Learning everyday, since March of this year....It takes awhile to rearrange a tried and true method of picking winners....There have been some bumps and misgivings along the way....But hey, learning is not cheap...
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10/2/09.....

Chester...R6.....#3 - SHARK MCGWIRE.....He has 3*, but no other edge but his good pace numbers....I still think he is best....Closed like a rocket in his last race, and is just waking up in form....Playback if a competitive loss, imo...

Chester...R12....#4 - EVERLASTING PRIDE.....I love this bet....This guy can race in any style, and a 3* horse is the most dangerous kind when it comes to multi-talented horses.....Lighty raced 3yo, and is 8 for 22 last 2-years...Has matured nicely, and found himself I think....his 1:21:4 last 3/4's last week, from a difficult spot and post, puts him right in this...He will go down swinging if loses...

Yonkers....R5....#7 -UP FRONT BETHANN....Was off for a good bit, (ouchy for good while, even way before they stopped with her), but she is back for her 5th start after her month off, and has some nice class and ability, and last week at Pocono, she showed her heels to a lesser bunch, going down the pike for an ez-score....I was impressed with the way she did it, tho....She picks up Yannick Gingras (red-hot lately), and that is a big plus, as he can motor them off the gate, as well as anyone....She will improve even further tonite, I think, because a lame horse just can't race as well as she has in her last two...I am a believer now, and will vote for her at the window tonite...
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I've got a bunch of other horses that are "on the fence" tonite, and are almost 3* horses, but just these tonite...When the weather is changing, it is best to limit the play to only the best, until the horses get adjusted to the change in temps and such... I have seen a bunch of funny things lately up north, and I believe it is weather related....safe...

Good Luck with your picks tonite....

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

Been doing a lot of "Star-DO" research lately, and have some new thoughts and plans, and will share when I am clear enough, so as not to bore anyone.....

For the time being, I will be concentrating only on 3* horses, as they are the best-bets (4* horses are the best, but they are few and far in between, and usually are the champs or racing in the top classes)....3* horses are usually able to set, maintain or overcome most any paces that they are up against in their races tonite....Often enough, they are able to change their racing style to suit almost any occasion, be it, leading (when not doing so lately or ever), going first over, or closing like a rocket....They are even able to overcome an "off-track" on most nites (I needed to find out about off-tracks)....

The 2* horses have their moments, as well as the 1* horses, but of course, the luck factor is needed more for these types, as well as, the risk factor goes up when the star power goes down....I am making up some new do's and don'ts in that regard....Learning everyday, since March of this year....It takes awhile to rearrange a tried and true method of picking winners....There have been some bumps and misgivings along the way....But hey, learning is not cheap...
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10/2/09.....

Chester...R6.....#3 - SHARK MCGWIRE.....He has 3*, but no other edge but his good pace numbers....I still think he is best....Closed like a rocket in his last race, and is just waking up in form....Playback if a competitive loss, imo...

Chester...R12....#4 - EVERLASTING PRIDE.....I love this bet....This guy can race in any style, and a 3* horse is the most dangerous kind when it comes to multi-talented horses.....Lighty raced 3yo, and is 8 for 22 last 2-years...Has matured nicely, and found himself I think....his 1:21:4 last 3/4's last week, from a difficult spot and post, puts him right in this...He will go down swinging if loses...

Yonkers....R5....#7 -UP FRONT BETHANN....Was off for a good bit, (ouchy for good while, even way before they stopped with her), but she is back for her 5th start after her month off, and has some nice class and ability, and last week at Pocono, she showed her heels to a lesser bunch, going down the pike for an ez-score....I was impressed with the way she did it, tho....She picks up Yannick Gingras (red-hot lately), and that is a big plus, as he can motor them off the gate, as well as anyone....She will improve even further tonite, I think, because a lame horse just can't race as well as she has in her last two...I am a believer now, and will vote for her at the window tonite...
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I've got a bunch of other horses that are "on the fence" tonite, and are almost 3* horses, but just these tonite...When the weather is changing, it is best to limit the play to only the best, until the horses get adjusted to the change in temps and such... I have seen a bunch of funny things lately up north, and I believe it is weather related....safe...

Good Luck with your picks tonite....

best,


So far a 2nd and a win. Your system certainly has merits.

Congrats John

Sea Biscuit

[LottaKash]

So far a 2nd and a win. Your system certainly has merits.

Congrats John

Sea Biscuit

Thx Biscuit, it will only get better from here on....bet on it....I will....:jump:

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

Thx Biscuit, it will only get better from here on....bet on it....I will....:jump:

best,

Chester 12th race

Everlasting Pride went to the half in 54 flat with the first three consequetive fast quarters and still finished 3rd by 1 1/2 lengths. This one did not have a breather in the race

I am putting this one in my VS Stable. Good one for next week.


Sea Biscuit

[LottaKash]

SD box score.........11..3...3..3.....25%w...50%p....75%s


Total Bet.....$66.00......TBW...$22.00........TBP...$22 00.......TBS...$22.00
Total Rtn.....$88.20......Trtn...$29.60........Trtn..$30 .70.......Trtn..$27.90
................+22.20......+/-...+9.60...............+$8.70............... +7. 90




10/2/09.....

Chester...R6.....#3 - SHARK MCGWIRE.....

The Shark went off at 1/1, and was not played by me, but a pick is a pick....As a rul, I almost "never", play a closer type horse at low or prohibitive odds, and this was the case here...

Was stuck behind a weak 1st over horse and had to go three wide all the way thru the last corner...In fact he went even wider than need be, actually a path or two more.....Closed like a rocket passing the whole field, except for the winner who had position on him.....

2d.....$2.80.....2.40....
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Chester...R12....#4 - EVERLASTING PRIDE.....I love this bet....He will go down swinging if loses...

This young 3yo is just getting the hang of running vs. older horses....He was involved in a 3-way battle for the lead to the 1/4 in 26:2, and was hounded by the 1st-over horse to just past the 5/8's...maintaind his lead even after a 54-flat mile half....and just shortened his stride with less than a 1/16th to go in a gutsy finish for 3d....1:22 & 1:51:1 finish....NOT sorry at all @5/1.....next week....I think that this guy can go a class or two higher before he levels out...we'll see...

3d.....$4.20...
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Yonkers....R5....#7 -UP FRONT BETHANN------------------------------------

This girl sat a 4-hole til just before the half, and then was stuck behind a weak 1st-over horse....Then she had had enough, and Gingras shot her 3-wide around the weak one, then took command just before the 3/4's and the win was oh so ez and safe.....She was 7/1 thru most of the wagering then 5/1, and the flash just before the start, she dropped sharply to 5/2.....still ok with that, tho.... as MOst 3* star horses at ok to bet @ 1/1 or higher...

1st.....$7.60...6.70 (ok)...3.30..
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Today Bet = $18.00....Return = $27.00....+$9.00 ....on the day...

best....better nights to follow...:cool:

[LottaKash]

Searched 6-tracks today, and the best I could come up with for 3* picks, is 2...Had a solid $6.80 play at The Red-Mile today, but didn't see it in time to report it here....too bad, he won ez...

Yonkers 10R.....#4 - IN THE MIX... 3.33**(EML)**.....This guy just keeps on going and winning....He is 11 for 28 on the season...loses Bouchard who is dedicated to the #7...Jordan Stratton, not as good, but capable enough from this spot...Is taking a step up in class from the $50K clm-ers to the $75K's, but most of these horses are pretenders at that number anyway....His superior pace numbers make him a strong contender for the win....
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Mohawk 11R.....#1 - JUSTICE CAM.....3***(ML)**.....This guy is 8/1, and is taking a huge dip in class, and I suspect 2/1 or 5/2 may be more like the closing odds on this one....He form-lines look suspect, but trust me this guy is fast and fit....HIs numbers will show up somewhere in this event....
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That's all I could find....Good Luck with your picks tonite....

best,

[LottaKash]

SD box score.........11..3...3..3.....27%w...54%p....81%s


Total Bet.....$66.00......TBW...$22.00........TBP...$22 00.......TBS...$22.00
Total Rtn.....$88.20......Trtn...$29.60........Trtn..$30 .70.......Trtn..$27.90
................+22.20......+/-...+7.60...............+$8.70............... +5. 90




best....better nights to follow...:cool:


Got this up to date, was off a bit on a thing or two...

best,

[melman]

Interesting stuff Johnny tks for posting. Taking the time to go into that kind of detail on a post is good for people who are taking a look at s-breds. Question----Your not really making any show bets are ya? The takeout and breakage will kill ya on those.

In the two "do" races tonight I have both of them as 2nd picks. At Yonkers R10 I like the 3 Allamerican Daddy and in R11 at Mohawk I like the 4 Dali lets see if we can make any cash tonight. BTW Ray likes your horse at Mohawk also.

In Yonkers R5 tonight I like the 4 Jolly Lester with 5 (Rays pick) 2nd and 3 Ball McCartney. As always will have to check the odds.

Best of trips Mel

[LottaKash]

Interesting stuff Johnny tks for posting. Taking the time to go into that kind of detail on a post is good for people who are taking a look at s-breds. Question----Your not really making any show bets are ya? The takeout and breakage will kill ya on those.

In the two "do" races tonight I have both of them as 2nd picks. At Yonkers R10 I like the 3 Allamerican Daddy and in R11 at Mohawk I like the 4 Dali lets see if we can make any cash tonight. BTW Ray likes your horse at Mohawk also.

In Yonkers R5 tonight I like the 4 Jolly Lester with 5 (Rays pick) 2nd and 3 Ball McCartney. As always will have to check the odds.

Best of trips Mel

Thx Mel, appreciate your comments and plays....

I am just keeping score to see how the Star-Do's do in all 3-betting catgories,in the long haul....

I am working diligently on exactas for the 3* & 4* star races...So far it is encouraging, to say the least....STILL needs work to make it into "prime-time", tho...So for now just the WPS scores....

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

Mohawk 11R.....#1 - JUSTICE CAM.....3***(ML)**.....This guy is 8/1, and is taking a huge dip in class, and I suspect 2/1 or 5/2 may be more like the closing odds on this one....He form-lines look suspect, but trust me this guy is fast and fit....HIs numbers will show up somewhere in this event....
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That's all I could find....Good Luck with your picks tonite....

best,

Hey John somebodys been reading your post.

Justice Cam opens up at 2-1 against ML odds of 8-1

Best

Sea Biscuit

[LottaKash]

Yonkers 10R.....#4 - IN THE MIX... 3.33**(EML)**.....This guy just keeps on going and winning....He is 11 for 28 on the season...loses Bouchard who is dedicated to the #7...Jordan Stratton, not as good, but capable enough from this spot...Is taking a step up in class from the $50K clm-ers to the $75K's, but most of these horses are pretenders at that number anyway....His superior pace numbers make him a strong contender for the win....

Resuts....
This guy off @9/5....Was a bit sluggish off the gate and despite his good early speed, the best he could manage was a 4-hole early seat....In fact, he was gapping in that position to the 1/2.....Was lucky enough to have the 3-hole horse take out into 1st-over position, and he followed that one til just before the 3/4's, when he went 3-wide around that one, and then flattened out a bit on the last corner losing a bit of ground in the process....Was able to gather up some steam late in the contest, and closed with a rush, in a very disappointing effort.....I thought he would be prominent tonite....Not so, perhaps his step up in class, despite his huge pace numbers, may have been to blame.....Sometimes horses with a big effort in their last race (pace-wise), will suffer a setback such as this.....Wasn't impressed with this effort, at all...

3d.....$2.80.
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Mohawk 11R.....#1 - JUSTICE CAM.....3***(ML)**.....This guy is 8/1, and is taking a huge dip in class, and I suspect 2/1 or 5/2 may be more like the closing odds on this one....He form-lines look suspect, but trust me this guy is fast and fit....HIs numbers will show up somewhere in this event....

Result:
Another flopperoo last nite.....This guy didn't want any part of the early going, and sat a 3d to last position all the way round the oval (granted, he isn't known for his quick early pace)....In fact, even the two racing in behind him, passed this one.....He offered nothing in the lane, whatsoever...NADA....

This horses pace-numbers, suggested that he was on the improve, and I like it when a horse is dropping big-time, and has hidden pace numbers....I really thought that this race would be the beginning of a "new" form-cycle.for this horse...I like to key in on horses that are just beginning to show that old back class, backed up with nice pace-numbers....But, why would I, or should I expect an 8% trainer to know how it's done.....Shame on me for betting and him for racing this horse, this horse is lame.....Off at 5/2, that hurts even more....raced like a 50/1 against....His super good pace numbers, really knocked him off his game..he sucked...needs a rest or something...

Finished = NADA......Sucker bet ?
-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Originally Posted by LottaKash
SD box score.........13..3...3..4.....23%w...46%p....76%s


Total Bet.....$78.00......TBW...$26.00........TBP...$26 00.......TBS...$26.00
Total Rtn.....$91.00......Trtn...$29.60........Trtn..$30 .70.......Trtn..$30.70
................+13.00......+/-...+3.60...............+$4.70............... +4 70
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Woke up this morning with the feeling that I used to have on the Sunday mornings following, a too much imbibing nite out.....Losing on "losers" sucks...I am used to horses that at least go down swinging when they don't win....These didn't...:D

Stay tuned if you care to....All is not lost, just one of those nites....
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Most of the tracks that I play in are in "transition form" right now.....I will explain that at a later time....But briefly these are the nites and/or a bunch of days, where the logical choices or "fans-plays", aren't doing all that well, and the horses being bet, without some great historical or pace/speed figures, and they win, despite our lack of definitive positives for these horses....These nites are usually preceeded by nites with many long-ones coming in....Each track is different, so there is no one line answer that can cover what I have just said....The "TRACKS" just like the horses have their "FORM-CYCLES" as well.....These are the nites when the most logical contenders do not perform as expected, and other horses are reacting to the new "Transition", but usually are being "BET" disproportionately vs. their current running lines.....This concept is very abstract, and ridiculously hard to explain in words....But, I do know that it it exists.....Or to put it another way, have you ever had times when you were doing quite well, and suddenly, continuing to use whatever method or sytematic approach in finding the contenders and hopefully the winners, then you just can't or doesn't seem to "DO-ZIP"....Generally, and I mean generally, these are transition nites....And often on these nites, it usually pays to not play too heavy or at all.....Such may have been the case tonite with my picks....Certainly other factors were at work, and that is what makes handicapping so exciting and frustrating all at the same time...It is a juggling act....Sometime it is hard to explain our losses....Is it our handicapping that is at fault, or is it a transition nite ?...A perceptive and/or advanced handicapper usually knows, but for those who are not so far along, transition nites are quite perplexing....On nites like these we usually leave the track talking to ourselves, not quite understanding what had just taken place tonite....For the less informed players, sometimes we will even accuse the drivers and trainers of cheating.....Confusion reigns on these nites, and that is usally the "telltale sign" on "transition nites"....If you are a decent enough handicapper, it probably isn't "all you", it is the track and "it's form-cycle"...Take heart, it always comes back, and you must adjust, and believe what you see next out or two, it is all part of the "track-cycle"....

I hate "transtions nites or spells".....

best,

best,



I sensed that "transitions" were taking place at a bunch of tracks that I usually play....Still the greedy human element takes over me at times, and I stuck my neck out anyway, knowing full well what was going on, and I got smacked for my disobedience to reality (as least the "transition" reality that I have learned about"....

[LottaKash]

After posting the previous, I had some additional thoughts on the matter of what may constitute a "transition nite".....

Harness players have an advantage over the T-bred players, in the sense that, there is this consistency of the dates, and the symmetry of the distance run (1-mile almost always) in harness racing vs. the many surfaces, varied distances and unreliable date factors of the the T-breds....In T-bred racing is much easier to cope with the surface or distance questions, than the date of a horse's last race, as it can present enormous handicapping challenges for the player, and unless a player is acquainted with the trainer's or horse's "date of race habits", they are really up against it in that regard...

So with the date factor being much more reliable in harness racing, we can get a better handle on a horse's form-cylce and can ascertain where a horse may be in his form-cycle based on his dates...Is his form- improving, regressing or staying the same ?....Since there is this consistency, the tracks have their own "Form-cycle" as well....Since studying pace more in depth, since Mar.09, I have come to see and realize that what I am saying (track-cycles) is true, and I can more or less prove it and often predict it....When I look for the 3* and 4* horses, as is often the case, and even last nite when I admitted that there was a shortage of 3 & 4* horses in all of the 6-tracks that I considered for play, so when there is a shortage of 3 & 4*'s I know that transition nite can't be very far off, and it probably is here already...This is my "BIG-SIGNAL" to stop and or least to slowdown my wagers....

Again, I will reiterate about this, as the notion of "track form transitions" are very abstract and hard to define, unless you are honest enough to admit that they "do" exist....That is what I am "attempting" to do here...

Have you ever, picked up a program, and scan the entries for the horses with the "best looking form lines", only to come to a conclusion, that running line-wise, no one seems to be in shape enough to win the race ?....Sure someone will win the race, but who?....Those are the telltale signs of a transition period, that is exclusive to that track, on that nite....How about the nites, when there may be 3 or 4 or more logical contenders (these are the "top-form" nites, and are opposite and dialectic to the "transition nites") that have a great shot to win the race, and this causes just as much confusion (who do you play when there are so many good ones to choose from) as the nites when no one (on paper) qualifies as a "quality play". ?...Are you beginning to seee where I am going with this ?....

There are many nites that I will get 3 or more 3* horses on the same card, and there may be just as many 3*'s at some of the other tracks that I like to play...Then there will be the in between times, when there is a mix of logical contenders and winners, and then there are the nites when the logical choices are nowhere around at the end....All these observed things (years of it) prove that all tracks have a "Form-cycle life" of their own....Some nights your system will have that "Feng-shui" thing going for it (everything is in complete harmony), and you will clobber them on that nite, as your way of going coincides with the tracks way of going as well.....It's your nite !!.... Then other nites, there will be a lot head scratching, and often enough the winner makes no sense to your way of thinking, and yet he is being bet large, and he wins with authority....MOre confusion to deal with....

This is why "Star_DO" was born, it is an attempt to find the horses, when they are there, that can overcome the "transition" nites, or at least know when they occur, and to back off enough, or wait for a more favorable and a more stable "track-form cycle" nite....Now if you compound this problem and add in a "Front-End Bias", and/or a Closer's-Bias, and the track is already in transition in it's form cycle for the types of horses that you like to play, then you are in for "real trouble" if you can't detect these things, early on, in the nite's card...

What contributes to a "track form cycle transition ?....Is it predictable ?....Yes and No to both....It usually starts with a lot of longshots coming home on a certain nite and surprising everyone,with the big-ballon payouts....Then there will be nites with a mix of some longshots, some middle priced horses and some favorites, then the favorites will start to just miss, then they will all lose, and then a nite comes when "your guess is a good as any as to who will win".....You see what can happens when the latter occurs, we begin to question our methods, no matter how successful they may have been, and it then causes confusion and doubt, then perhaps anger and frustration may set in, and any or all of these things will knock you right off your game...It does to me sometimes, if I let it, as I am not in the habit of losing too many in a row...A 3 or 4-race losing streak is devastating for me....That is why I try to tune in to the happenings at each harness track I play....Sometimes when I play too many tracks on a particular nite, I will become confused....I have learned (still learning) to just shut down my play at those tracks where I am struggling at lately, and then concentrate on the tracks tonite, that are still playing to my specifications....

I could go on and on about this, but I just wanted to share some of my personal opinions and insights about this crucial issue.....

Some nites it ain't you, it is the track, and it is in transition....simple......Once the new "track form" arrives, and it "ALWAYS" does, you will get back on the winning path again, and before you know it, you will have the renewed confidence to play "your way" again....

And weather, plays a very important role in all of this....Especially, prolonged bad weather and/or new temperature and humidity levels...They hinder good form and prolong transitions sometimes...

I hope someone can make something of this....I sincerely do hope that I was able to communicate something, that comes from my deep-down gut thinking about form-cycles (both horse and track) and all..

best,

[Ray2000]

I see what you're saying Johnny, but isn't this just result of trainers racing the rats in the winter and starting the current year's campaign with their better horses all about the same time, like in Apr? So when October rolls around, many are getting a little leg weary at the same time? If so, look for fresher horses with fewer than 20 starts.

[Sea Biscuit]

After posting the previous, I had some additional thoughts on the matter of what may constitute a "transition nite".....

Harness players have an advantage over the T-bred players, in the sense that, there is this consistency of the dates, and the symmetry of the distance run (1-mile almost always) in harness racing vs. the many surfaces, varied distances and unreliable date factors of the the T-breds....In T-bred racing is much easier to cope with the surface or distance questions, than the date of a horse's last race, as it can present enormous handicapping challenges for the player, and unless a player is acquainted with the trainer's or horse's "date of race habits", they are really up against it in that regard...

So with the date factor being much more reliable in harness racing, we can get a better handle on a horse's form-cylce and can ascertain where a horse may be in his form-cycle based on his dates...Is his form- improving, regressing or staying the same ?....Since there is this consistency, the tracks have their own "Form-cycle" as well....Since studying pace more in depth, since Mar.09, I have come to see and realize that what I am saying (track-cycles) is true, and I can more or less prove it and often predict it....When I look for the 3* and 4* horses, as is often the case, and even last nite when I admitted that there was a shortage of 3 & 4* horses in all of the 6-tracks that I considered for play, so when there is a shortage of 3 & 4*'s I know that transition nite can't be very far off, and it probably is here already...This is my "BIG-SIGNAL" to stop and or least to slowdown my wagers....

Again, I will reiterate about this, as the notion of "track form transitions" are very abstract and hard to define, unless you are honest enough to admit that they "do" exist....That is what I am "attempting" to do here...

Have you ever, picked up a program, and scan the entries for the horses with the "best looking form lines", only to come to a conclusion, that running line-wise, no one seems to be in shape enough to win the race ?....Sure someone will win the race, but who?....Those are the telltale signs of a transition period, that is exclusive to that track, on that nite....How about the nites, when there may be 3 or 4 or more logical contenders (these are the "top-form" nites, and are opposite and dialectic to the "transition nites") that have a great shot to win the race, and this causes just as much confusion (who do you play when there are so many good ones to choose from) as the nites when no one (on paper) qualifies as a "quality play". ?...Are you beginning to seee where I am going with this ?....

There are many nites that I will get 3 or more 3* horses on the same card, and there may be just as many 3*'s at some of the other tracks that I like to play...Then there will be the in between times, when there is a mix of logical contenders and winners, and then there are the nites when the logical choices are nowhere around at the end....All these observed things (years of it) prove that all tracks have a "Form-cycle life" of their own....Some nights your system will have that "Feng-shui" thing going for it (everything is in complete harmony), and you will clobber them on that nite, as your way of going coincides with the tracks way of going as well.....It's your nite !!.... Then other nites, there will be a lot head scratching, and often enough the winner makes no sense to your way of thinking, and yet he is being bet large, and he wins with authority....MOre confusion to deal with....

This is why "Star_DO" was born, it is an attempt to find the horses, when they are there, that can overcome the "transition" nites, or at least know when they occur, and to back off enough, or wait for a more favorable and a more stable "track-form cycle" nite....Now if you compound this problem and add in a "Front-End Bias", and/or a Closer's-Bias, and the track is already in transition in it's form cycle for the types of horses that you like to play, then you are in for "real trouble" if you can't detect these things, early on, in the nite's card...

What contributes to a "track form cycle transition ?....Is it predictable ?....Yes and No to both....It usually starts with a lot of longshots coming home on a certain nite and surprising everyone,with the big-ballon payouts....Then there will be nites with a mix of some longshots, some middle priced horses and some favorites, then the favorites will start to just miss, then they will all lose, and then a nite comes when "your guess is a good as any as to who will win".....You see what can happens when the latter occurs, we begin to question our methods, no matter how successful they may have been, and it then causes confusion and doubt, then perhaps anger and frustration may set in, and any or all of these things will knock you right off your game...It does to me sometimes, if I let it, as I am not in the habit of losing too many in a row...A 3 or 4-race losing streak is devastating for me....That is why I try to tune in to the happenings at each harness track I play....Sometimes when I play too many tracks on a particular nite, I will become confused....I have learned (still learning) to just shut down my play at those tracks where I am struggling at lately, and then concentrate on the tracks tonite, that are still playing to my specifications....

I could go on and on about this, but I just wanted to share some of my personal opinions and insights about this crucial issue.....

Some nites it ain't you, it is the track, and it is in transition....simple......Once the new "track form" arrives, and it "ALWAYS" does, you will get back on the winning path again, and before you know it, you will have the renewed confidence to play "your way" again....

And weather, plays a very important role in all of this....Especially, prolonged bad weather and/or new temperature and humidity levels...They hinder good form and prolong transitions sometimes...

I hope someone can make something of this....I sincerely do hope that I was able to communicate something, that comes from my deep-down gut thinking about form-cycles (both horse and track) and all..

best,

John: You know I have the greatest of admiration for you as a person as well as a handicapper. This is a discussion harness forum so please dont get riled up or angry at me for not agreeing with you on certain points.

I have heard of horse form cycles but track form cycles or tracks in transition are something I have never heard of.

Basically I think that the Justice Cam loss has thrown you off. When I have such a loss, I sit down and reflect as to why the winner won the race the way he did and I am talking about Dali in the same race as Justice Cam the 11th race on Oct 3 at Mohawk. Dali was racing with North America's best of the best such as Mister Big, Shark Jesture,Bettor Sweet, Big Time Ball as recently as June of this year and today he was racing in NW 12000 L6. Yikes. What a class advantage this guy had. Also after that terrible loss to Dinner Guest I read in the result sheet that the judges had listed him as allergic to lasix. The last time he had lasix was on Aug 15 and this race was on Sept 19 and I dont really know for how long the effects of lasix remains in a horse's system. To top it all off he was getting a positive trainer change from Duane Marfisi to Rene Allard. Yikes again. He went to the top and wired the field and went faster than the open handicap race that day which Ramegade Bruiser won and Big Time Ball came second and with faster half and three quarter times. Yikes again and again.. You cant really ignore class of that nature.

After the races I looked at the result chart and the judges had listed him as allergic to lasix again. Wow!!

Justice Cam was really bet to the hilt in the race. All you have to do is wait one week and I am sure if you have the right figures he will definitely make up for that loss.


Best


Sea Biscuit.

[LottaKash]

I have heard of horse form cycles but track form cycles or tracks in transition are something I have never heard of.
Best
Sea Biscuit.

Hey Biscuit, no offense taken, in fact none in the least......

Of course you haven't heard of Track-form cycles, it is my discovery,(or at least the descriptions of it) it is there,and most good handicappers perceive it, and experience it, but usually they will chalk it up to a bad bias, bad handicapping, or bad luck, or some other excuse for their bad nite, and that would make some sense....But for me, unhunh....The track has a life of it's own, and it does affect the form of the horse, and it is cyclical...

As for Justice Cam, he had nothng to do with any of the posts about "track transitions", at all....The trainer and his method's and/or lack of it, had all to do with Justice Cam's loss, and I was sucked into a play on him, and I am sorry to have mentioned him at all....As for the handicapping part of the race, I know all about what you were saying about "Dali", but, JC's pace numbers were better, and I was hoping to sneak in a nice one....Actually, I didn't even play him, so his loss didn't throw me off none at all....It is just that, that pick goes on the record, and some people have PM'ed me to say that, they actually bet on my selections, and that counts for much when it comes down to sincerity, integrity, and reputation, for whatever that is worth....I was pushing it a bit with that one (Justice Cam) as I just wanted to put something out there...

The subject of Track-transitions just happened to cross my mind at that particular time as it had had much to do with the lack of available 3* horses for the nite, at the 6-tracks that I was looking at to uncover them from...It had just crossed my mind that's all....But, since it had crossed my mind I just thought that I would go and share something about that, while it was still fresh in my mind...

If you or anyone else thinks that I am losing it, perhaps you should think again, and then I would ask you this....Haven't you ever had a nite when you couldn't even pick your nose ?.....If you are a decent handicapper, then how would you explain that ?...That is what I am talking about...that's all.

I didn't just make this up, it has been part of my handicapping thought process' for quite some time now....It is real, and it pops up with alarming regularity, and since I have been using the new TM "Pace-Past Performances" I now believe that I have the proof that I have long sought after, in order to answer some of the nagging questions that I have been pondering for a couple of decades, at least....:jump:

If you were privvy to the pace numbers models, and patterns that I use, I believe that you would understand more about this "track-transition" thing....
It is real....Next time you get skunked at the races....See if you can see it..It is more about this issue, than just plain "bad luck".....(this is key, and it will be in my book)(and it would be hard for me to give away the store, before the book is even finished and published)

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

Hey Biscuit, no offense taken, in fact none in the least......

It is just that, that pick goes on the record, and some people have PM'ed me to say that, they actually bet on my selections, and that counts for much when it comes down to sincerity, integrity, and reputation, for whatever that is worth....I was pushing it a bit with that one (Justice Cam) as I just wanted to put something out there...

best,

I can see the heavy burden you are carrying on your shoulders and I would like to lighten it a bit.

All those people who are pming you that they are betting your selections know as well as we do that no system on earth can pick 100% winners. There will be winners and there will be losers. That is all there is to it.

So lighten up John and keep up the good work.

Sea Biscuit.

[LottaKash]

I can see the heavy burden you are carrying on your shoulders and I would like to lighten it a bit.

All those people who are pming you that they are betting your selections know as well as we do that no system on earth can pick 100% winners. There will be winners and there will be losers. That is all there is to it.

So lighten up John and keep up the good work.

Sea Biscuit.

Hey Biscuit, I appreciate your soothing words.....

It is light, and not as burdensome, as you may have perceived, this is a "joy" for me, these days....It has been a long time since I have created anything in the way of a new systematic or methodical approach to handicapping the trots.....Thru the years, it has been a roller-coaster ride, in that regard....

Lately tho, since getting the new pace programs, a rebirth has emerged from all that new available info....I was leery at first,to tinker with the success' that I have been enjoying these past few years....It is shaky ground creating a new way of doing business, but with each passing day and race, I can only predict even greater things for myself, and anyone that will purchase my book in the not too distant future....That is what this thread is all about, it is a "BETA", and I am just keeping score and sharing my success's and failures, and that is all....

Still, I am very "serious" about this new "way of going", and when I give out a pick, I expect it to win, each and every time....Don't you ?....I know that it is totally unrealistic to expect 100% winners, but one can strive to that end, in any event....So that burden that you seem to think I have, is just an illusion...I have been playing this game far, far, too long to let a loser or two get to me...Pehaps you were caught up with a comment or two that I made about how I feel about losing....You see, I have this flair for the "dramatic", you know, to spice up a rather dull post from time to time. :sleeping: ....It makes for good copy...In fact, when I watch a race, I am much more clinical than emotional, to say the least....But I am still very much "Passionate" about this game, and more so than ever...:jump:

I wish I could share more about what I am "actually doing" (the medodology), but that would spoil it all, for the book part....Who would buy a book, when they already know all there is to know about "Star-Do"....

P.S. .. I hope none of your tracks are in "transition" tonite...:jump:

best,

[andicap]

LK,

Hey, way to stick to your guns. When the crowd calls you crazy, that's when you know you're on the right path. Remember what people were saying about the Sartin crowd when they first got going -- just a crazy cult. And throughout history -- Man fly? You gotta be insane. You'd get burned at the stake for thinking the Earth revolved around the Sun. And so on.

You're thinking originally, coming up with ideas that are off the wall -- in a good way. Are you right? Who the heck knows. The important thing is you're not afraid to go "out there" and stay there because that's what you're seeing on the track.

Stay the course! Stay crazy.

[LottaKash]

LK,

Hey, way to stick to your guns. When the crowd calls you crazy, that's when you know you're on the right path. Remember what people were saying about the Sartin crowd when they first got going -- just a crazy cult. And throughout history -- Man fly? You gotta be insane. You'd get burned at the stake for thinking the Earth revolved around the Sun. And so on.

You're thinking originally, coming up with ideas that are off the wall -- in a good way. Are you right? Who the heck knows. The important thing is you're not afraid to go "out there" and stay there because that's what you're seeing on the track.

Stay the course! Stay crazy.

Hey Andicap, thx for the rah rah and all, but "SARTIN", well, that may be a stretch.....:jump:.

Still, I have managed to create some new personal and rewarding angles that were spawined from some of the things that I have investigated and learned thru the years... In order to have any shot at beating this game, one "has" to be a bit creative in order to overcome the crowd's way of thinking and assessing things...Otherwise, it is break-even and mediocrity at best....

best,

[LottaKash]

I have been tutoring a neighbor with my new systematic approach to this game "star-do"....He is intelligent and catches on quick, and he has the "good fortune" of not knowing a single thing about horse racing whatsoever.....He just knows that the horses race and the first one to the wire wins....This is unlike some players, myself included, that have been bogged down with myth's and self taught fallacies about what wins (mostly not) a race... This "unkowingness" makes it possible for me to test my "new" way of going, and gives me a chance to edit as I go, on the book that I am working on....If I can teach just one person to learn some winning ways, then I am pretty sure that my book has a chance of success...

He asked me what motivated me to do a book ?....I told him it was "vanity" pure and simple...Well, that is not completely true, but any successful handicapper worth his salt, may have had this notion (writing a book) cross his mind, a time or two, I'll just bet...The vanity part has come and gone, sure it is still a motivator of sorts, but, mostly now it is simply a labor of love and a willingness to share (before my time comes,haha) what I may have learned from all the years in the "betting-wars".....And to enlight some of the "newer ones" just coming into the game (God knows we need to them in order for our game to survive)

Up until "Star-Do", I had been doing quite alright, I mean I make modest but steady profits from my "spot-play" way of going...It is a grind of course, but still, in my shoes, being retired and on a fixed income, it allows me some of life's luxuries that would otherwise be absent from my life in this stage of it....I know I am repeating myself a bit from past post's about my finacial status... It is because even tho moderately successful, I still wanted to expand my horizon's a bit and possibly find, after all these years, the "automatic play"....That is why "Star-Do" was created.....It is to the "automatic" that I am looking to........Well known author of racing, travelling, fictional novelist and a foremost professional horse player, Mark Cramer, once said something to this effect ( about the automatic play)...when I die, I want the epitaph on my headstone to be this: "He died searching for the "automatic"".....

I believe almost every handicappers ultimate dream, is to have at least one or a handful of "automatics", and their every and all energies would be devoted to finding that, or those automatics, religiously....Then life will be good, right ?...Maybe, but first the trick is to find the "automatic"......

Star-Do is the closest that I have come to realizing my handicapping-lifelong dream, "the automatic"....I wish that I could learn more quickly....Every time that I think that I am there, some new angle or point of view pops up and I have to stop and reflect a bit......As a result, I am making up new rules (almost daily) as well of a list of "do's & don'ts"......While (3* & 4*) horses are the backbone of star-do, they are as close to an automatic as I have ever been, but there are the other (1* & 2*) horses to be considered as well....The rules for the lesser-stars, are proving to be a bit more difficult and different than the ones that I have made up for the better starred horses.....So this in reality is a work still much in progress...

A couple of weeks ago, I had two horses that were 3*'s, one went off at 20/1 and the other at 18/1....I didn't have the "nutz" to play them, and they didn't win, but they both came close, finishing 2d...One paid $18.60 and the other $16.40 for the place.....Not to redboard, but it has inspired confidence since then, and I desperately trying to get out of this "tight-assed" handicapping spot that I am in.....It is this very strict "spot play" way that has given me the success that I have enjoyed these past few years.....But, now I realize that I am missing out on serious "coin" from not having the confidence to bet on horses that have the very Pace Patterns that have made Start-Do as good as it is right now.....In fact, last week, I gave out 3-star-do horses and they finished 1st, 2d & 3d on that nite, but here is the kicker, on that same card at Yonkers, there was a 3* horse by the name of "Dennis", and I didn't give him out as I was too tight and didn't want to stick my neck out, and he didn't have everything that my normal "spot play" method requires for a play.....I did play him tho, and he won from dead last on the last corner to win it safely at the wire....He paid $38.00 for the win.....The point here wasn't to redboard, but to point out the Star-Do-way will point the way to these types of plays, and in an ongoing basis, when they are there....In fact somedays there are 3* horses that I would love to give out, but because I believed that they would be prohibitive chalks, I just didn't bother.....Some of them pay way more than I had originally anticipated, that they would tho....Some nites you never know....Or, perhaps star-do is more powerful and remains hidden from the average Joe more than I thought....Still ironically, on some nites they bash the crap out of the odds on my 3* horses, and yet, some nites the crowd is clueless....I am still trying to figure out why that is.....stay tuned if you care to...

So in the end, if I can't get all of this defined shortly, on my tombstone I will ask this to be written, "He finally found the "automatic", and then he died"...hee, hee....

best,

[LottaKash]

I don't think any of these will go long, but hey, you never know....Sometimes I don't....

Woodbine....2R...# 6 - QUAIL SEELSTER....this girl beat this same bunch last week (an R-horse)...Still, she is a very solid (3**EML**) and can't be ignored...If need be, she can motor on the front-end as good as any of em, and at this facility, that may be the case tonite...

Woodbine....10R..# 6 - LIVE TO DREAM.....This girl got her (3**ML*) rating from racing vs. the top Preferred mares last week, (and drops tonite), and gained nearly 11-lengths in her last half in that race....she ran back to back 3/4 splits or 54: and change, and if she can come back to those numbers, and gets into contenting spot tonite, she has a good shot to be there at the end.... I Like #1 UPFRONT BETHANN, & #7 UNIQUE LEGACY for the Key/exacta box with her....Might be a nice price...

Pompano Park..7R..#4 - DAILYS SUPER BOY.....This horse has plenty of back class, and in his last two starts has come alive with a rating of(3**EML**)...Don't like the drive much, but this horse can overcome that...Just missed on the engine last week, but that was quicker than he had gone in quite some time....should improve off of that...

Yonkers........8R....#3 - CR DREAMCATCHER........I believe that the conditions of this race tonite were altered just for him, as generally this class is just listed as a straight "nw $18,000L6" and tonite it is nw$18,400L6, and his earnings in his L6 are $18,310, coincidence ?....Anyway, in his 3d start back from a June vacation, last week, he raced in a nw25K L6, and now drops tonite, but the thing is he got his (3.25**ML**) rating in that race, which was a better race and a better field of horses than the ones he faces tonite...., He overcame and finished evenly but swiftly in that one.....This guy doesn't win many, so with this type you must strike when they are hot, and he is right now, I think... He finished with 2- 2d's in his first two starts back from vacation...Maybe a price ?

Yonkers........11R....#5 - FORCE NINE..... This one I believe is a do or die race for him....He broke in his last race, but is dropping nicely into this softer spot for him....The race prior to his last race, was where he earned his (3**L***) rating...That rating is superior, and if the break in his last race was a fluke and/or the result of that monster 3* race, he should be able to win this, otherwise he is "LAME" and that is the risk in here, with this one....Was a beaten FAVE in last...(9/5) #1 -Mountbatten N & #8 Tell Me A Story for the underneaths and x-key box...

GoodLuck with your Friday nite plays...

best,

[LottaKash]

I don't think any of these will go long, but hey, you never know....Sometimes I don't....

Woodbine....2R...# 6 - QUAIL SEELSTER....this girl beat this same bunch last week (an R-horse)...Still, she is a very solid (3**EML**) and can't be ignored...If need be, she can motor on the front-end as good as any of em, and at this facility, that may be the case tonite...

Woodbine....10R..# 6 - LIVE TO DREAM.....This girl got her (3**ML*) rating from racing vs. the top Preferred mares last week, (and drops tonite), and gained nearly 11-lengths in her last half in that race....she ran back to back 3/4 splits or 54: and change, and if she can come back to those numbers, and gets into contenting spot tonite, she has a good shot to be there at the end.... I Like #1 UPFRONT BETHANN, & #7 UNIQUE LEGACY for the Key/exacta box with her....Might be a nice price...



GoodLuck with your Friday nite plays...

best,

I cancelled these plays for WOODBINE... for tonite....Raining and Sloppy....these horses running styles are not suited for this....especially this track,,,favors front runners and more so on a sloppy track....

best,

All other horses are go's

[Sea Biscuit]

John: Stop talking about dying, tombstones and epitahs.

I know you gonna live to be at least a 100:jump::jump::jump:

Best

SB

[LottaKash]

John: Stop talking about dying, tombstones and epitahs.

I know you gonna live to be at least a 100:jump::jump::jump:

Best

SB

Hey Biscuit, Mark Cramer started it.....:D

best,

[LottaKash]

Pompano Park..7R..#4 - DAILYS SUPER BOY.....
Left for quick command, and that was it, a safe winner....
1st...Paid $4.40...2.60...2.20


Yonkers........8R....#3 - CR DREAMCATCHER.....
I knew this guy was in trouble when he didn't leave and sat a 4-hole trip, caught some cover and was 2d-over, and never threatened....Bounced off of his tough fractions of last race, I think....raced backwards late ( a sure sign of a bounce)....One thing tho, a pick is a pick and it lost, but at 6/5 I passed on him for betting, haha.... A horse that is only 2/27 on the year, is never worth the risk at low odds.......The horse that I thought this guy would sit behind as the leader, wasthe leader and the winner @7/2, and easily at that, but 7/2 or higher is what this horse should have been, and the winner imo, should have been the 6/5...Ya never know what the crowd will do....:jump: ...My man "RAY" had him tho, good Ray....
Finished up the track....Paid $0.00

Yonkers........11R....#5 - FORCE NINE.....
Left for quick command, got jumped just past the 1/4 and he sat a nice comfy 2-hole trip til the top of the lane, and he used the lightning lane for an ez late score....
1st......$7.50...4.90...250.....and caught my advertised exacta key....$31.40
=========================================

SD box score.........16...5...3...4.....31%w...50%p....75 %s


Total Bet.....$96.00......TBW...$32.00........TBP...$32 00.......TBS...$32.00
Total Rtn....$115.00.....Trtn...$41.50.......Trtn...$38 .20.......Trtn..$35.30
................+19.00......+/-...+9.50..............+$6.20............... +3 30


No big money tonite, but it's comin (I think)...:jump:

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

Hey John 2 out of three ain't bad. Congrats again.

If you die before you finish your book, I'll kill you:D


Keep em rolling


SB

[LottaKash]

Hey John 2 out of three ain't bad. Congrats again.

If you die before you finish your book, I'll kill you:D


Keep em rolling


SB

Funny guy, that's you Biscuit.....:jump: :jump: :jump:

best,

[Ray2000]

Thx Johnny

especially this track,,,favors front runners and more so on a sloppy track....



You were 'right on' with the Woodbine comment

Last night 5 of 11 winners were on the lead at the half pole (and another was first over).

[LottaKash]

Thx Johnny



You were 'right on' with the Woodbine comment

Last night 5 of 11 winners were on the lead at the half pole (and another was first over).

Hey Ray, ..........Woodbine was sure quite a mess last nite, especially early on.....Still wondering what to do about tonite's card....Is there more rain in the forecast, and/or how will the track play if it is still drying out ?....Seems like most of the races were split into "two divisions", the early ones, and the rest of the bunch....I really don't like that track much, for that reason alone.....The opeining panel is so straight, that the field is pretty much set after the 1/4, and there are no real or meaningful moves til past the 5/8's, and if the front-end is strong, then closers or grinders don't have much of a realistic chance to score.....I hate that, about that place....We must adjust, I guess....I will wait to see more until the transition seems to be over somewhat....

best,

best,

[LottaKash]

Sat. 10/10/09

Had a nice 3* at Pocono today, but saw it too late to post it and thought it would be chalk anyway...($7.60)...surprised....As I was saying the other day, you never know about the closing odds on 3* horses, at times....ONe could make a nice living with plays such as that one....I wish I could get 3 or 4 of those each nite....:jump:

Here is another, that has a good shot tonite:

@ YONKERS..3R....# 1 - SOMETHING NEW.... A nice spot for this one, he is a solid (3**ML**)...Been off a week, I think becaus of that hot pace in his last encounter, but I am OK with that....Steve Smith is capable enough with a live horse....Class of field..
Price ?...your guess is as good as mine, as the inside horses are always bet disproportionately at that oval....

Good Luck with your picks

[LottaKash]

Sat. 10/10/09
SD box score.........17...5...4...4.....29%w...53%p....76 %s


Total Bet....$102.00.....TBW...$34.00........TBP...$34 00.......TBS...$34.00
Total Rtn....$121.20.....Trtn...$41.50.......Trtn...$41. 60.......Trtn..$38.10
................+19.20......+/-...+7.50..............+$7.60............... +4.10





@ YONKERS..3R....# 1 - SOMETHING NEW.... A nice spot for this one, he is a solid (3**ML**)..

Sat a nice 3-hole seat, and jumped the leader right at the half-way mark, and was hounded by the #4 from just past the 5/8th's on, and the 4 was able to out-neck my pick in the lane ($50.00)...they had the rest of the field well put away, tho....No excuse for the slim loss, but a top-driver may have gotten a little more out of this one, I think...heehee

2d.....$3.40...2.80

Hey, it wasn't so bad, made $0.20 on the deal...better n' losin...........:jump:

best,

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

2d.....$3.40...2.80

Hey, it wasn't so bad, made $0.20 on the deal...better n' losin...........:jump:

best,

Don't you have a minimum odds requirement before wagering?
He was the 7-5 fave.

[LottaKash]

Don't you have a minimum odds requirement before wagering?
He was the 7-5 fave.

Yes, anything above 6/5 is fair game, below that it depends on the horse, his opponents and the amount of overlay....A (3*) horse is usually a well thought out number, and mostly it is not a guess....The additional set of stars, the first set, is based on bonus speed points, and the second set of stars, is a bit artsy, and they reflect the noted handicapping points, such as angles and any advantage(s) that this horse may have over his comptetition....

So, a 3* horse starts out with a plain vanilla 3*, and then any speed advantage that he may have (a max of 3***'s) over the others will gain him an additional star or two for the speed capability....then the middle part is his preferred running style (this is important when assesing how the race may unfold),,then the 3d set of stars are "key" handicapping points, and here it is freerange, a horse can have as many (*'s) as he has advantages,....Generally, a superior horse has at least 2*'s in the handicapping star-zone....

best,

[Sea Biscuit]

Sat. 10/10/09

No excuse for the slim loss, but a top-driver may have gotten a little more out of this one, I think...heehee

best,

Maybe he was holding the reins in two hands like we do out here.:D

Best

Sea Biscuit

[LottaKash]

Maybe he was holding the reins in two hands like we do out here.:D

Best

Sea Biscuit

Sho nuff, y'all doit Kanadian stahl....:jump: ....We can doit with one hand tied behind our backs..

best,