Trainer streaks

[andicap]

I would love any insight into why trainers go on winning and losing streaks. One reason I imagine is that if one horse gets a cough it could spread to the others.

Any more insights?

[hurrikane]

sometimes it is because the trainer just isn't there. They take vacations..get colds..have horses at different tracks..etc. It is tough to track especially with simulcast. I remember playing MD tracks and when Letherbury was in town his horses would win at about 29% but when he was at DEL or NJ tracks his horses in MD would only win about 10%..huge difference. Problem was knowwhen he was or wasnt' there to oversee the stock.

I think changing grooms may have an effect too.

Then there is anouther thought...in the case of Baffert..may have to do with how many poppy seed bagles get left in the barn.

[so.cal.fan]

Nowadays with all the medications, horses blood counts go down after a few races, they tail off for a while.
Usually, if a trainer has a real hot streak at one meet, they are likely to tail off at the next, unless they get a fresh supply of horses. The big barns like Baffert have so many, they always have a fresh supply of stock.
I have noticed at Santa Anita, if a barn is real hot (unusually hot), and all of a sudden all their runners start coming back through the paddock to the test barn-the hot streak ends, even if you don't hear about it. LOL

[takeout]

andicap,
I think this might be one of the 64k questions.

The part I don't get is the ones that have put together decent streaks in the past that can't seem to do it anymore. Some of these guys just fall completely off the map. Maybe someone else was doing the training when they were winning and the horses were just running in their names. Who knows? Some 'cappers say: "When they're hot, I'm on them and when they're cold, I'm off." In my own experience, I've found that easier said then done.

hurrikane,
The part about Leatherbury is interesting. I always heard that he hardly ever went to the barn.

I always thought that the grooms probably had a lot to do with it too. And, maybe a lot of it is a question of how much money the owners are willing throw at the game in terms of all the stuff that can be done by the vet and others to keep them healthy and physically sound.

so.cal.fan,
I remember a trainer that was cold for an entire year after getting caught for drugs. These days he's as hot as ever and he's no small-timer either. Think he found something new?

[andicap]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by takeout
[B]andicap,
I think this might be one of the 64k questions.

The part I don't get is the ones that have put together decent streaks in the past that can't seem to do it anymore. Some of these guys just fall completely off the map. Maybe someone else was doing the training when they were winning and the horses were just running in their names.


I think a couple of things are happening here:

1. Trainer had an excellent assistant or groom or other help in the barn that he no longer has.

2. Stewards finally figured out what trainer was using, couldn't prove it, but warned him to stop it. See Oscar Barrera in the '80s.

3. Claiming trainer loses good owner(s).

[hurrikane]

Andi...I think especially in the claiming ranks the owner is way underestimated. And your point about trianers loosing a good owner could be right on the mark