LONG TERM CAPITAL PLAYS. RECENT MODEL RECAP

[formula_2002]

THIS IS THE MODEL WHERE N155>=25 AND N157>=2.
ONE ASSET OF THIS MODEL IS THAT YOU NEED NOT KNOW THE FINAL ODDS. ANOTHER IS A POSITIVE ROI. :)

FROM 8/19/2009 THROUGH 8/23/2009

78 PLAYS
36 WINNERS (46%)
1.16 WIN POOL ROI
1.00 PLACE POOL ROI
.99 SHOW POOL ROI.
SEE ATTACH FOR BACKUP.
YOU CAN ALSO REVIEW THE DAILY RECAPS ON THIS FORUM.

[formula_2002]

here are the results for the same model tested on a 8976 race data base, sorted by field size.
It shows a winpool roi of 1.05 when field size>=8, and a 1.03 roi for all field sizes.

these results are determined after scratches.
the posted picks are determined before scratches and seem to do a bit better.

see attachment.

[markgoldie]

Hey Joe:

Nice job here. Talk about being selective, though! Almost 9000 races and only the low 100's per field size. But if you add them up (like between 7 and 11-horse fields), they start to get into a significant number. Problem would be bet size, though and how it would affect results. I'd imagine even $200 would lower the numbers, at least at some of the tracks.

[formula_2002]

Hey Joe:

Nice job here. Talk about being selective, though! Almost 9000 races and only the low 100's per field size. But if you add them up (like between 7 and 11-horse fields), they start to get into a significant number. Problem would be bet size, though and how it would affect results. I'd imagine even $200 would lower the numbers, at least at some of the tracks.

Thanks Mark

$78000 bet on that Sar race 1 horse.
It caculated out that there was no breakeage. I didn't do the math, but a couple of hundred dollar more at it could would have paid 4 cents less. Thats a lost of money to lose out on with these low yields.
As you say, there are some tracks in that sample where the total win pool is not 1/10 of that.

[formula_2002]

here is a breakdown by dollar odds.
the model is continuously profitable up through 4-1.
87% of the plays are within that odds range.

odds wmut pmut smut roi A E plays a/e
0 90 91 90 1.02 33 33.4 44 0.99
1 613 572 562 1.05 163 154.68 291 1.05
2 318 277 273 1.10 56 50.12 144 1.12
3 189 171 154 1.35 24 17.91 70 1.34
4 84 87 82 1.08 9 7.95 39 1.13
5 45 51 47 0.87 4 4.43 26 0.90
6 0 22 16 0.00 0 1.91 13 0.00
7 32 32 23 1.45 2 1.39 11 1.44
8 0 8 22 0.00 0 1.02 9 0.00
9 19 10 10 1.06 1 0.91 9 1.10
10 0 6 12 0.00 0 0.54 6 0.00
11 0 11 8 0.00 0 0.33 4 0.00
13 0 0 0 0.00 0 0.14 2 0.00
14 0 0 13 0.00 0 0.27 4 0.00
15 0 0 0 0.00 0 0.13 2 0.00
16 0 0 0 0.00 0 0.06 1 0.00
18 0 0 0 0.00 0 0.05 1 0.00
26 53 10 4 26.50 1 0.04 1 25.00
1,448 1,350 1,323 1.07 293 275.29 677 1.06



odds wmut pmut smut roi A E plays a/e
0 90 91 90 1.02 33 33.4 44 0.99
1 613 572 562 1.05 163 154.68 291 1.05
2 318 277 273 1.10 56 50.12 144 1.12
3 189 171 154 1.35 24 17.91 70 1.34
4 84 87 82 1.08 9 7.95 39 1.13
1294 1198 1161 1.10 285 264.06 588

[formula_2002]

here is a breakdown by odds ranking.
83% of the plays are favorites or second choices and produce a 1.10 roi at a 49% win rate.
the sum beyond those two rankings produce no profit.

rank ave odds wmut pmut smut roi A E plays
1 1.19 974 892 871 1.09 242 224.74 445
2 2.91 264 245 234 1.13 35 32.32 117
3 4.36 77 101 86 0.82 8 9.46 47
4 5.97 59 55 49 0.98 6 5.18 30
5 8.2 19 34 34 0.48 1 2.26 20
6 13.14 53 10 18 3.79 1 0.54 7
7 13 0 0 9 0.00 0 0.51 7
8 13.67 0 11 18 0.00 0 0.21 3
9 18 0 0 0 0.00 0 0.05 1
2.45 1,448 1,350 1,323 1.07 293 275.29 677



odds rank ave odds wmut pmut smut roi A E plays
1 1.19 974 892 871 1.09 242 224.74 445
2 2.91 264 245 234 1.13 35 32.32 117
1238 1137 1105 1.10 277 257.06 562