Pick 3 wager question

[penguinfan]

Let's say you play the pick three with the following wager, which is based on a $2 wager 1,2/3,4/5,6 That would be $16 for the ticket. The 1 wins the first race and the 3 is a late scratch in the second race so my understanding is you get the post time favorite in place of the 3. If the 4 is the post time favorite and wins and you hit the third race as well, do you now have 2 full tickets since you already had the 4 and if the 4 didn't win are you entitled to a refund of $8 for the scratch on the 3 since now you have only 1,2/4/5,6 Which is only an $8 ticket?

Penguinfan

[cj]

You get the winning payout for $4.

CJ

[Fastracehorse]

Becasue you were given the 4 in place of the 3 and he didn't win - too bad - :) :) :) :) :) .

I luv p-3's - they can be painful - but they are worth it if you bet quality plays.

You said you hit a few this week so U must know what I mean.

fffastt

[penguinfan]

Actually I am starting to like Pick 3's alot, more so than exacta's and especially tri's. Can't tell you how many times I had the winner in a rece only to not have the second horse and throw away the ticket. I am sure many of you can say the same and know what I mean. Tracks that have rolling pick 3's are the most interesting because it seems the tracks that only have 1 or 2 on the card always throw in some wild card race that has 3 first time starters or a really bad field of maiden claimers or something equally difficult to handicap.

Anyone have any interesting strategies for betting pick 3's??

Penguinfan

[Suff]

I single my TOUGH horses in the front...........

When I like a horse over 10-1... I single that horse and go wide in leg two and wider in leg 3.

I used to go wide up front.....and went alive on many many many pik3's that required me to get a Houdini home on the back end to make a score. I have no set strategy that I stick to...

But I do single or go two wide in the front.......and then give myself alot of options in the Middle and last leg to make hay with.

When I get a $30.00 winner singled and he pops...and I'm 4 wide to a 4 wide ....... Thats a LIVE TICKET.....when I'm going to a 2 wide to a single in that last leg..... Thats a hope and pray ticket.

I like LIVE Tickets.........

[rrbauer]

When I like a horse over 10-1 the first thing I do is bet it to win!

That's not to say I won't use it in some "pick" bets, but the worst thing you can do is dope out a nice price and then complicate it by having to sweat out the downstream races. I do think Sufferin's idea of the early single and then spreading downstream is good and it is probably a contrarian move as most players I know like to spread early to stay alive. Much of what you do is determined by how the races come up. Pick your spots where you have some handicapping edge and have the courage to take a stand against favorite-dominated combinations. Try and bet proportionate amounts such that you will have more money on the lower paying combos in your mix (assuming that those combos contain your best horses).

[Fastracehorse]

If you are alive to 5 of 7 horses in the last leg and they are going to pay well - you know what to do.

Gurantee a profit!!

:) :) :) :) :) :) :)

[freeneasy]

I look for a winner first of all. any winner in any race as long as iam convinced hes pretty much the surest winner on the card fo r that day. then i look to build around him as he will most likely be my key. if this horse is going to be the favorite then the races before and after has to have a horse with at least a good chance to win at good odds to make for a decent payoff.
if i have a good odds horse and good odds horses in the other races, all with a good shot to win to give me two good odds winner, then i dont mind going 5-6 deep in two races and even back up the single with 1 or 2 more horses in the same race. the ticket can come out anywhere from a $36 ticket to $72 to $108. theres a lot of good ways to work up a ticket

[Valuist]

I've been playing Pic 3s for about 13 years now and here's a few things I've learned:

1) The Pic 3 is a great play when you have a series of 3 races and your main opinion is a negative view of the favorite in at least 1 of the races (preferably 2 or 3).

2) Its good to have one leg where you go no deeper than 2 deep; But don't be afraid to go more than 4 deep in one of the legs. If you have to, don't be afraid to hit the "all" button. I remember about 10 years ago being alive going into the last leg. I had 6 of the 7 horses. I bet early so I was at work and couldn't bet a win saver on the 7th horse. Sure enough the one I left out won the race.

3) If you do like a first timer or two (or a layoff horse also) and the track has rolling Pic 3s, key that horse(s) in the middle or last leg. The value will be gone in the opening leg.

4) If you do like a 10-1 shot or better, concentrate on win betting. I'll use longshots in the Pic 3 as a "snag"; hoping to cash in on a negative opinion of the favorite.

5) Have a solid opinion in at least 2 of the 3 races. Sounds painfully logical, but the Pic 3 can be addictive and we've all forced Pic 3s hoping to get that $1000 payoff on races where we didn't have a strong opinions.

6) If you single a 6-5 shot in the opening leg, you'd better be tossing out chalk in the back legs.

7) Creative strategies work well; 2x2x2 is too plain and seemingly everyone plays that ticket. A 6x3x1 ticket could fetch a big payoff if you spread out in the right race. A typical Pic 3 will have 1 favorite, 1 overlooked contender, and 1 head-scratcher.

[Fastracehorse]

I've learned that if I'm going to be beat it is usually by a firster or by one of my later choices ( 5th choice for ex..).

P-3's taught that my 4th beats my top pick alot.

So the best strategy for me is patience - wait for a good single - and let loose.

fffastt

[Valuist]

I should probably define my term "snag". I do this in what I believe are "chaos" races; races where there is no good form to go by. It usually occurs in Mdn Clmrs or in NW2 claiming. I'll usually go 3 deep in these Pic 3 scenarios. I'll shoot for a 8-1/10-1 minimum price. I use several horses because no one is worthy of a single and my basic race opinion is against the favorites.

I know what you're saying about those 4th or 5th choices. These are the true sleepers; horses who's form doesn't knock you out, but isn't bad either. I find that the early tote action and horses' appearance often tell the tale with these sleepers. Unfortunately, if its the 2nd or 3rd leg of a Pic 3 our money has been invested long before we see the action or appearance.

[Fastracehorse]

They are my fascination - one aspect I'm working on is a balance between probability and ROI.

fffastt

[Jeff P]

One of the All Ways newsletters a few years back laid out a strategy for pick three betting that makes perfect sense. Let's say you wanted to wheel three horses in all three legs of a pick three. Horse A is your top pick, horse B is your seceond choice. And horse C is your third choice. Your ticket $1.00 pick three ticket would look like this:

ABC-ABC-ABC

This combination would cost you $27.00. If you manage to get a winner in all three legs, fine, you have a single winning combination.

But what if you restructured the bet to look like this?:

A-ABC-ABC
ABC-A-ABC
ABC-ABC-A
BC-BC-BC

This set of combinations costs just $35.00 ($1.00 base). But - get this- you now have the possibility of hitting not once, but TWO or even THREE times.

Think about it.

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Jeff P
One of the All Ways newsletters a few years back laid out a strategy for pick three betting that makes perfect sense. Let's say you wanted to wheel three horses in all three legs of a pick three. Horse A is your top pick, horse B is your seceond choice. And horse C is your third choice. Your ticket $1.00 pick three ticket would look like this:

ABC-ABC-ABC

This combination would cost you $27.00. If you manage to get a winner in all three legs, fine, you have a single winning combination.

But what if you restructured the bet to look like this?:

A-ABC-ABC
ABC-A-ABC
ABC-ABC-A
BC-BC-BC

This set of combinations costs just $35.00 ($1.00 base). But - get this- you now have the possibility of hitting not once, but TWO or even THREE times.

Think about it. Only way to play those types of combos is with lower paying horses,and a vulnerable favorite in at least one leg.Because it doesn't pay to bet straight,too low odds.And you don't want to key longshots unless this is an additional ticket with win tickets or other exotics on your longshot(or you happen to be able to hit longshots than low odd horses.)And you need to figure if it will pay a minimum around 100 bucks per ticket because otherwise you are putting too much money into the bet.Unless you win 60+% of these bets on a consistent basis.

[rastajenk]

I was led to that All Ways site just yesterday for the first time. There's a lot of interesting reading there.

[GR1@HTR]

I like the above strategy better than the 3x3x3 combo...but the problem w/ the above formula is that you beleive that all A horses are equal (ie that they all are of same value and probability).

The odds of hitting 3 A horses in a row are as follows...

Say all A horses have a 50% chance of winning (highly unlikely, and if so you will be cashing a $20 P3) is 12.5%

Now something more realistic (30% hit rate).
Your odds of hitting 3 of those in a row is 2.7%

Hence I play a variation of the ALL Ways example>>>> 4 tickets but some of them will have 2 or 3 horses on top w/ at least 1 single (A horse) in one of the legs.

[Fastracehorse]

I too balance probability of winning with odds ( projected ROI ).

It is a fickle projection but it is a practice in pseudo-discipline.

Please give more pictures of your toilet drinking dog I mean please give some All Ways tickets examples.

My best memory last year of a p-3 was where I singled a $40 winner in the last leg on a multiple ticket - I have many agonizing memories - like last night - ohhhhhh, betting when tired, bad thing.

This year my best hit has been a p-4 - where I had a 6-1 single.

I always do well if I can find a circle bet - meaning that if I circle say, 3 horses, I have the leg won - theoretically, ahhhh, I had a circle bet last weekend and it got beat so, nothing is for sure - probability/expected ROI.

fffastt

[lousycapper]

Grampa taught me to play the pic three when you have no more than two choices in each of the three legs. Then you have less than a "Jackson" [another of his sayings] at risk. I went to the track with him once when he cashed two pick-three's that paid over $3k each and he had each one twice.

-L.C.

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by GR1@HTR


The odds of hitting 3 A horses in a row are as follows...

Say all A horses have a 50% chance of winning (highly unlikely, and if so you will be cashing a $20 P3) is 12.5%

Now something more realistic (30% hit rate).
Your odds of hitting 3 of those in a row is 2.7%



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If your top 2 choices win @ 50% then you should win around one out of eight pick three's. If your top two choices win @ 60% then you would win a little more than one out of five trys. Wasn't it Sartin who claimed his top two choices won better than 60% of the time. He must be extremely wealthy. Id est, if he bet pick three's. Even if he didn't he should be. .6 * [$8.50 [average payout] = $5.10 - $4.00 = $1.10 / $4.00 = 27.5% return * .9 [your bet's odds influence over a season] = 24.75%. Sounds easy, doesn't it? Welcome to the next crop of millionaires. LOL

[Fastracehorse]

< Wasn't it Sartin who claimed his top two choices won better than 60% of the time.

I think Sartin's calculator was low on batteries - one of the authors stated that if he could find the winner 70 % of the time in his top 5 he's doing well - even that's hard to do.

:cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool:

fffastt

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
one of the authors stated that if he could find the winner 70 % of the time in his top 5 he's doing well - even that's hard to do.

fffastt

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I would think one should be able to find the winner in their top 5 horses about 80% of the time. I surely hope so. Has anyone out there done a study?

-L.C.