Linda Rice

[NY BRED]

who needs a bull market with wild swings?

Just parlay Linda on the grass and double down when Alan Garcia
is up.


As a call option, go to Sar the night before any card, and buy 100 DRF's
at 5.00, return to Manhattan and sell at 5.75 ..:jump: :jump: :eek:

[tzipi]

I was a hotwalker for Linda back in the summer of 1997 at Belmont. Nice woman and very good trainer. Yeah she's on fire now,but you got to realize she does'nt run any route races at all really now,so she can just concentrate on mainly turf sprints and some dirt ones. So she's raking em up at Saratoga.

[Grits]

Tzipi, she's gone a route at Saratoga and won, too. On Opening day with Garcia at a 1 1/16, and another on 8/9 with Dominquez at a mile. The Opening Day was a gracious $17.20. This one and the Quick Call sprint on the 30th that paid $20.20 were fine prices. Needless to say, there's been almost no value since.

I'm beginning to want her to go home. LOLOL (Though I'd love to see her win the trainer's title.)

She ran well last summer too, as we all know.

[tzipi]

Yeah but I meant she used to run turf and dirt routes alot back in the day. Now shes a sprint specialist. Oh yeah she def will run a route once and a while. But look at her ratio now compared to 5-10 years ago.

Yeah she's killed me a couple times on horses I did'nt think she's get up,but she's winning lights out every sprint. Enough Linda,save some for Belmont.LOL

[BIG49010]

They had a great interview with her on A.M. Saratoga which I pick up on my dish, she talked about entering multiple horses for the 5 1/2 grass races and how she gate schools them to fire earily. She seems like a very nice lady.
__________________

[WinterTriangle]

Just parlay Linda on the grass and double down when Alan Garcia is up. :eek:

Last year it was the same, but with Garcia and McLaughlin.

[Rico8812]

When did she switch vets? Whoever she's using now is on fire.

[kenwoodallpromos]

When did she switch vets? Whoever she's using now is on fire.
I was wondering when someone was going to post something like this! Now for the list of violations, the complaints about low odds drop after the gates open and generally, short fields, and the continued drop in TBred handle...LOL!

[BIG49010]

Just made The Little Guy and Andy Beyer elgible for a dunce cap, with a win by Mother Russia!

[bisket]

awright they let that little rascal get away with 25 and on it went. yes linda is riding this saratoga wave

[BIG49010]

Props to Andy " The Little Guy" on Gun Rock though.

[bisket]

i had gun in my ex box but didn't put money on his nose. i thought his odds would lower than 4-1.

[classhandicapper]

I absolutely love when a top trainer has their entire barn geared up for a specific meet because a lot of otherwise excellent handicappers do not understand the inter-relationship between horses and trainers and their probability of winning.

Most handicappers look at speed figures, pace figures, class, trip etc.... trying to figure out who ran the best recent races. So do I. However, this is not a static game. Horse performance is dynamic.

IMO, there is no question that a horse's probability of running back to its recent good races or improving further are heavily correlated to the quality of the trainer.

When a trainer gets hot, sometimes it's random probability distribution (so you should note that). But sometimes you can see that all their horses are firing their best race or running new tops. When that happens, you can't evaluate the probabilities off their current form like many handicappers stubbornly insist upon doing.

For example:

Assume horse "A" ran an 85 Beyer last out, that is typical of its recent form, and the horse is trained by Linda Rice during the middle of a hot streak.

Assume horse "B" ran an 85 Beyer last out, that is typical of its recent form, and the horse is trained by Joe Blow.

There is no way in hell those two horses should be similar odds. The Rice horse should be solidly favored.

"X" percentage of the time any horse is simply going to run a poor race for no apparent reason, but "X" is way lower for Rice than Joe Blow when her barn is geared up.

"Y" percentage of the time any horse is simply going to run a new top for no apparent reason, but "Y" is way higher for Rice than Joe Blow when her barn is geared up.

That's why a lot of her horses are getting bet down so heavily to the objections of some. Yet despite that, her ROI has been tremendous!!!!!

Now I'm not saying that every horse she saddles is an automatic play, that every one should be expected to improve or fire a major effort etc... You have to focus on specific strengths and weaknesses and be selective. However, the fact that some people simply don't "get it" opens a lot of value opportunities.

The next trick will be to watch the first few at Belmont because after such a big meet, a lot of her horses could easily start heading south and disappointing. It will take the public a couple of weeks to stop betting them. So there may be an opportunity to bet against her soon.

But for Saratoga, stubbornly watching her win all those races without jumping on the bandwagon selectively was a blown opportunity to make easy money.