Crist's Pick-Four Monday

[toetoe]

I come neither to apotheosize nor to bury Steven Crist, but indeed to observe that his successful ticket today was very well done. I recommend studying it at his D.R.F. blog.

With two odds on favorites, it still paid $577. His miss-one version cost $117, as opposed to a caveman ticket (all contenders covered equally), which would cost $162. The cutdown slashed the price by 27.77% (I try to slash by at least 40% myself, but I have outfoxed myself that way), and he played all his main horses for another dollar ($36 total, taking the investment to $153).

Of course, other options are miss-two and miss-three tickets. A pick-six can even be of the miss-five variety. SC has called his strategy the "avoid-one," as it gives him a slim shot at cashing when a near no-hoper wins, provided he has included it very cheaply. I recommend this approach to our very savvy darksider boardmates, especially when the Big M $1 pick-six carries way over. :jump:

One option I would at least consider if I were wearing SC's hair (oops :blush: ) is to single the big favorite in the nightcap on the extra half of the all-mains ticket. The horse won, but the main ticket did not hit, and this would save $24 more. My friend calls these variations "miss one and a half" tickets.

If this post is just too confusing (imagine that :rolleyes: ), please check out the ticket on the blog anyway. :ThmbUp:

[toetoe]

I speak of the early pick-four.

[toetoe]

Steve Crist hit the late pick-four also, but he only shaved $24 off of his $250 main tickets, something I would never do. If three backups won the second, third and fourth legs, a big payoff would be lost for the sake of saving under 10%. Just not a worthy shave, I say. I would simply spend $24 more. He hit for $1,603.50 anyway, on a $286 investment, I think. :jump:

[castaway01]

I'll take 'em both, thanks.

[Light]

I dont get how he is claiming to have hit the late pk4. That is an AABB ticket. Where does he say he used that combination? In fact he gives no strategy for the late pk4. Just claims to have hit it using a gazillion horses.

[toetoe]

Light, my distinguished colleague,

A successful "B" ticket needs only one "A" horse to win, provided the other races are won by "B" and/or "A" horses. Now, if a "C" horse won in the first leg, he would need all "A" horses for his ticket to cash.

By the way, thank you for refraining from the following pithy assessment:

"He sucks !!!" :D

[toetoe]

castaway01 has 100 in vCash, on top of everything else. :mad: .

[Grits]

Light, you may know all this already since you follow tlg so closely, but anyway, I imagine he, too, had it--if he played his picks in his last four races. Matter of fact, he probably had several pic 3s and doubles today along with the pic 4. He had a fine day with 4 winners on top, 2 second choices, and 1 third choice.

Now don't go getting upset Light, ok? 'Cause you seem to have some concerns about other handicappers, now and then. I just don't understand why though?

LOL. Its a great game.;)

[toetoe]

Gritzi Gaynor,

Why poke the beast with tlg rumors ? (:Tearing own hair out.) AAARGH !!!

[Grits]

Gritzi Gaynor,

Why poke the beast with tlg rumors ? (:Tearing own hair out.) AAARGH !!!

I know Toe, I'll be nice now. I'm sorry. I take it back! LOLOLOL

(Lock your mouth shut, Grits. And throw away the key. :D )

[toetoe]

C'mon, now, folks. Group cyberhug. (:Opening arms wide.) :eek:

[Light]

Just once,I would appreciate it if Crist or TLG would state what bet they are playing before the phenomenon of face sucking handicapping celebrities assumes they played whatever convenietly would be a winning bet. That is not the way it works in the real world.In the real world,you don't get paid for hindsight. In the real world, you got people losing their ass,people losing their rent money,people losing their food money,people who havent had a positive ROI in years, people going in debt, and people going broke. Neither Crist,TLG nor Beyer can help these people and the fact that they haven't quit their day jobs leads me to believe they couldn't help themselves.

[Tom Barrister]

Does Crist post these tickets on his blog or wherever BEFORE the start of the first race in the sequence (even if only seconds before "off", or even immediately after the start)?

Or are we treated to all of the analysis and such after one/half/all of the races are over?

[Java Gold@TFT]

Does Crist post these tickets on his blog or wherever BEFORE the start of the first race in the sequence (even if only seconds before "off", or even immediately after the start)?

Or are we treated to all of the analysis and such after one/half/all of the races are over?
He blogs during the day. The time stamps are pretty close to when they actually get online:

http://cristblog.drf.com/crist/


He doesn't post every P-4 and P-6 but he does post a lot of them before the races are run.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Sorry, couldn't edit that last line in time. He posts his ticket after the start of the first leg. You can still see his picks and use them in P-3's or rolling doubles if you are so inclined.

[cj]

Yes, first P4 off at 1:34, posted at 1:45.

Second P4 off at 3:50, posted at 3:55.

Since he bets these with real money, I think that is more than fair.

[ryesteve]

In the real world, you got people losing their ass,people losing their rent money,people losing their food money,people who havent had a positive ROI in years, people going in debt, and people going broke. Neither Crist,TLG nor Beyer can help these people .Who knew that was even part of their job description? Sounds more like a job for Gamblers Anonymous

[Grits]

Yes, first P4 off at 1:34, posted at 1:45.

Second P4 off at 3:50, posted at 3:55.

Since he bets these with real money, I think that is more than fair.

Sure he bets his real money as does everyone else. I still don't get all the anger with successful horseplayers. According to Light, the majority of us are losing everyday now, eating at soup kitchens and living in cardboard boxes under bridges. Funny . . . its August and I'm still getting $400 a month utility bills for this cardboard box.

[Light]

My point about people losing is just that. It doesn't help when handicapping celebrities get paraded around like they are some sort of financial oasis is a sea of losers. Furthermore it doesn't help when people say look he had this or that afterwards filling in whatever convenietly would work from 4 or 5 picks per race. This is like selling snake oil in a carnaval.

I still dont see Crists play of an AABB ticket on his website in the late pk4. In the early pk4 he did make a reference to what he specifically played,an AACA ticket. There is no such reference in the late pk4 yet he is claiming victory about it on his web site.

His first ticket paid a little over 5/2. Since he didn't specify what he played in the 2nd pk4 and having nothing else to go by, I'll use a caveman ticket for all his selections which is $500 in the 2nd pk4. That comes to a 2-1 return on his money. In both cases,most handicappers would pass on such low odds. So I have no praise for that either. Secondly betting like that in a pk4 is financial suicidal because all that needs to happen is to get the chalk winning and you will win the bet but lose your money.

My position is that Crist's betting strategies are not for the average joe.A)They are too costly and B)They are impractical. If you cant narrow the contenders in a race down to 2 or 3 horses,then you shouldn't play the race or any serial bets associated with it. Crist is praised like some handicapping Guru yet he plays like someone who cant handicap. It's sloppy handciapping when you have to spread out in every race and cannot take a stand anywhere.

His strategy is also inferior to the one's offered here and in books where you structure your tickets to hit it several times and guarantee it to yourself at least one time if you are right. His method of selective betting assures him that he will be throwing some tickets on the ground even if he is right while the caveman's cashes. The caveman's tickets I'm talking about are able to be caveman tickets because they don't use every horse in your thoughts. They are refined down to a managable number. You only need a rich and famous,sloppy type of spreadout ticket, when you have money to throw away and cant handicap. And most of us don't have that luxury.

[Grits]

Light, I don't get you here. Let's say, one doesn't play the late (or the early) pick 4 everyday. Let's say one is more conservative in that regard because one doesn't have Crist's annual income level.

Now, if you play for $1--4x4x4x4. Doesn't that equal a $256. ticket? If so, what is wrong with getting $1600 back for that amount? Or other days getting a larger return on such a ticket? Why does singling make you a better handicapper? I don't get this. It seems to me, yes, singling soothes the ego. Too, it may make you poorer, and not necessarily better in regard to skill? The goal, of course, being return.

One of the best superfecta players around, I'm told, as I've read many of his thoughts, is a gentleman named Ken Massa. Now, Massa constructs a ticket, let's say on a race that several can get there so he adds a couple of more horses to the bottom of the ticket:

AB
ABCD
ABCDEF
ABCDEF

The $1. ticket costs $72, or somewhere in that range. Again, why is this poor handicapping? Sure, you're not going to play it every race, but certainly, its a good bet at warranted times, no?

Light, I really am trying to understand you here, and I'm hoping you'll give horseplayers some credit. And I think you're not doing so. True, not all are wealthy like Crist, or on TV everyday like Crist and TLG, but keep in mind, folks do this nationwide/worldwide. And only but a few do it in front of the masses, Light. People are cashing tickets, if they weren't the game would, as we know it, not exist.

[keilan]

My point about people losing is just that. It doesn't help when handicapping celebrities get paraded around like they are some sort of financial oasis is a sea of losers. Furthermore it doesn't help when people say look he had this or that afterwards filling in whatever convenietly would work from 4 or 5 picks per race. This is like selling snake oil in a carnaval.

I still dont see Crists play of an AABB ticket on his website in the late pk4. In the early pk4 he did make a reference to what he specifically played,an AACA ticket. There is no such reference in the late pk4 yet he is claiming victory about it on his web site.

His first ticket paid a little over 5/2. Since he didn't specify what he played in the 2nd pk4 and having nothing else to go by, I'll use a caveman ticket for all his selections which is $500 in the 2nd pk4. That comes to a 2-1 return on his money. In both cases,most handicappers would pass on such low odds. So I have no praise for that either. Secondly betting like that in a pk4 is financial suicidal because all that needs to happen is to get the chalk winning and you will win the bet but lose your money.

My position is that Crist's betting strategies are not for the average joe.A)They are too costly and B)They are impractical. If you cant narrow the contenders in a race down to 2 or 3 horses,then you shouldn't play the race or any serial bets associated with it. Crist is praised like some handicapping Guru yet he plays like someone who cant handicap. It's sloppy handciapping when you have to spread out in every race and cannot take a stand anywhere.

His strategy is also inferior to the one's offered here and in books where you structure your tickets to hit it several times and guarantee it to yourself at least one time if you are right. His method of selective betting assures him that he will be throwing some tickets on the ground even if he is right while the caveman's cashes. The caveman's tickets I'm talking about are able to be caveman tickets because they don't use every horse in your thoughts. They are refined down to a managable number. You only need a rich and famous,sloppy type of spreadout ticket, when you have money to throw away and cant handicap. And most of us don't have that luxury.

Really, who are you to give that advice?

[schweitz]

[QUOTE If you cant narrow the contenders in a race down to 2 or 3 horses,then you shouldn't play the race or any serial bets associated with it. [/QUOTE]

I'm guessing you don't play many pick-4s.

[bigbrown]

My point about people losing is just that. It doesn't help when handicapping celebrities get paraded around like they are some sort of financial oasis is a sea of losers. Furthermore it doesn't help when people say look he had this or that afterwards filling in whatever convenietly would work from 4 or 5 picks per race. This is like selling snake oil in a carnaval.

I still dont see Crists play of an AABB ticket on his website in the late pk4. In the early pk4 he did make a reference to what he specifically played,an AACA ticket. There is no such reference in the late pk4 yet he is claiming victory about it on his web site.

His first ticket paid a little over 5/2. Since he didn't specify what he played in the 2nd pk4 and having nothing else to go by, I'll use a caveman ticket for all his selections which is $500 in the 2nd pk4. That comes to a 2-1 return on his money. In both cases,most handicappers would pass on such low odds. So I have no praise for that either. Secondly betting like that in a pk4 is financial suicidal because all that needs to happen is to get the chalk winning and you will win the bet but lose your money.

My position is that Crist's betting strategies are not for the average joe.A)They are too costly and B)They are impractical. If you cant narrow the contenders in a race down to 2 or 3 horses,then you shouldn't play the race or any serial bets associated with it. Crist is praised like some handicapping Guru yet he plays like someone who cant handicap. It's sloppy handciapping when you have to spread out in every race and cannot take a stand anywhere.

His strategy is also inferior to the one's offered here and in books where you structure your tickets to hit it several times and guarantee it to yourself at least one time if you are right. His method of selective betting assures him that he will be throwing some tickets on the ground even if he is right while the caveman's cashes. The caveman's tickets I'm talking about are able to be caveman tickets because they don't use every horse in your thoughts. They are refined down to a managable number. You only need a rich and famous,sloppy type of spreadout ticket, when you have money to throw away and cant handicap. And most of us don't have that luxury.


"His strategy is also inferior to the one's offered here and in books where you structure your tickets to hit it several times and guarantee it to yourself at least one time if you are right"

could you please provide a pointer to where I can read about this strategy "here" and/or a book reference about this?

[Light]

Now, if you play for $1--4x4x4x4. Doesn't that equal a $256. ticket? If so, what is wrong with getting $1600 back for that amount?

He posted a 4x5x5x5 ticket. Thats $500.There was no explanation of what combinations he was playing, then just credited himself as hitting it. You dont find that disingenuous?

Why does singling make you a better handicapper?

I never mentioned singling. In fact I think you should avoid singling as much as possible. I think this is the main reason TVG dude's do so poorly in their Pk4's.



AB
ABCD
ABCDEF
ABCDEF

The $1. ticket costs $72, or somewhere in that range. Again, why is this poor handicapping?

That ticket costs $288.

[Light]

Really, who are you to give that advice?

Someone with experience.

[Fastracehorse]

I'm guessing you don't play many pick-4s.

U don't have to spend alot of money to get a p-4

It's important for me 2 have singles - and I rarely go 5 deep in any leg.

fffastt

[keilan]

Someone with experience.


How do you get through life?

[Light]

could you please provide a pointer to where I can read about this strategy "here" and/or a book reference about this?

This is copied from another poster. This was described numerous times for the pk3 on this forum.Do a search. You can adapt this to a pk4. So in this case,instead of putting in $27 and hitting it once on a 3x3x3 ticket, you put in $35 and structure your ticket like this, and will get it multiple times if just one of your singles wins. At the same time,you are not relying on one single for the entire ticket. Instead you have multiple singles working for you to double or triple your payout. Should none of your singles win,you have backup.

A= Top Selection
B=2nd Selection
C=3rd Selection

Bet1 A/ABC/ABC

Bet 2 ABC/A/ABC

Bet3 ABC/ABC/A

Bet4 BC/BC/BC

[Light]

How do you get through life?

Dude,what if I told you my net worth is over $1 million,which it is. Will you STFU?

[keilan]

This is copied from another poster. This was described numerous times for the pk3 on this forum.Do a search. You can adapt this to a pk4. So in this case,instead of putting in $27 and hitting it once on a 3x3x3 ticket, you put in $35 and structure your ticket like this, and will get it multiple times if just one of your singles wins. At the same time,you are not relying on one single for the entire ticket. Instead you have multiple singles working for you to double or triple your payout. Should none of your singles win,you have backup.

A= Top Selection
B=2nd Selection
C=3rd Selection

Bet1 A/ABC/ABC

Bet 2 ABC/A/ABC

Bet3 ABC/ABC/A

Bet4 BC/BC/BC


This method works fine for p3, p4's not so much. There are much better ways to construct p4 's. You being the expert and all should know that.

[keilan]

Dude,what if I told you my net worth is over $1 million,which it is. Will you STFU?


My daughters net worth is much more than 1 mil and she's twelve. Whats your point?

[Grits]

Light, I was not giving the example of Crist's ticket. I was using the example of TLG's picks in the last four races of yesterday. I don't pay any attention to blogs. No one's.

Also, the bet I posted from Ken Massa was a superfecta ticket, NOT a pick 4 ticket, if you'll note again.............

I thought, before you made the change/correction in your post, that you had made a reference to singling. Of course, I could easily be wrong.

Sorry, if I was confusing, or confused.

[Light]

My daughters net worth is much more than 1 mil and she's twelve. Whats your point?

What's yours?

[Light]

Light, I was not giving the example of Crist's ticket. I was using the example of TLG's picks in the last four races of yesterday.



The problem is you dont follow his pk4's everyday to know how he does overall. I am following his picks everyday for Saratoga and will post his results after the meet ends,but I can tell you that if you played all his pk4's for Saratoga,you would be well in the hole.

[keilan]

Light, I was not giving the example of Crist's ticket. I was using the example of TLG's picks in the last four races of yesterday. I don't pay any attention to blogs. No one's.

Also, the bet I posted from Ken Massa was a superfecta ticket, NOT a pick 4 ticket, if you'll note again.............

I thought, before you made the change/correction in your post, that you had made a reference to singling. Of course, I could easily be wrong.

Sorry, if I was confusing, or confused.


Grits I looked at the superfecta structure of

AB
ABCD
ABCDEF
ABCDEF

and my comment would be not to follow that advice in a field size 8 horses or greater fwiw. Any ticket structure show be based on one's handicapping not some predisposed structure. ie say you like 3 horses to win the race or have a strong opinion on a horse going off at 10-1 or greater, would you structure the ticket the same? Hope that makes sense.

[Grits]

The problem is you dont follow his pk4's everyday to know how he does overall. I am following his picks everyday for Saratoga and will post his results after the meet ends,but I can tell you that if you played all his pk4's for Saratoga,you would be well in the hole.

Light, I do follow his Pick4s, and his picks on all the races. Don't agree part of the time either and have done fine doing so. As that's what is promoted, no one blindly follows any analyst. I've watched and wagered Saratoga almost everyday since it opened. The difference between us is--I don't care like you do. Too, I don't bet pk4s. I bet win, win/place, and exactas.

What I don't understand is the rub, the irritation you have with public handicappers.

Again, sorry for the confusion.

[Grits]

Grits I looked at the superfecta structure of

AB
ABCD
ABCDEF
ABCDEF

and my comment would be not to follow that advice in a field size 8 horses or greater fwiw. Any ticket structure show be based on one's handicapping not some predisposed structure. ie say you like 3 horses to win the race or have a strong opinion on a horse going off at 10-1 or greater, would you structure the ticket the same? Hope that makes sense.

Thanks Keilan, I wouldn't ever use this or any other structured formula without handicapping. But too, I'm not one to create a half dozen tickets per race. But, that's just me.

When I lived in Lexington, and would go to Keeneland for simulcasting or live racing, I used to see guys wheel trifecta tickets seven ways from Sunday, and still miss, repeatedly. And have meltdowns, right there in front of the tv. I couldn't do it.

[keilan]

Grits let me share this w/you. Lets say you have a strong opinion about an exactor you're thinking about playing ( u mentioned that you're a win - win/place x's player).

Say your ticket structure looks something like this A/BC or AB/ABC now if you wanted to try and crush a tri this can be a great opportunity if your opinion is sound. A/BC/BCDEF this is a relatively small wager with a tremendous upside if you play it 5 times or more.

For me this has proven to be one of the best ways for me to attack a tri play, similarly this can be another betting structure for a super. However I suspect a smart gal like you has already used such! :)

[point given]

FWIW - I am a reforming P4 bettor previously weaned off P6 small tickets. AND, I relapsed at the Spa Monday, I must admit playing both P4s having had a positive couple of days before. For the early P4 , I saw 2 singles with #4 So and So in the 3rd and #7 Kickapoo in the 5th. So in the 2nd race , first of the quad bet I used 5 horses, then single , then used 4 horses ( not enough) in the next and then the Kickapoo single , for a $20 ticket . In the late P4, I used the 1,5,10 in the first race ,then 2,3,6, then singled (why, oh why???) Dance Gal Dance , and went 2,3,5,7 in the last. HOWEVER, feeling guilty about taking the 5 out in winnowing down the ticket, I made a p3 with the 5 in the Dance Gal DAnce race , as she had the best closing ability. So I spent $36 on the p4 (not wanting to double it , and not successful in lobbying my buddy to go halves) and then $9 p3 , for $45 total. The p3 came in at $730 (which I had for a half )plus the Grand Slam for 3 times. BUT, (groan ) I wimped out on the p4 score. I just happened to be on yesterday, whereas on Saturday I was stumbleing my way through the card. Please dont take this post as redboarding. I'm just posting on it since it is specifically being discussed , and I read the Crist blog and cannot bet the amounts that he does . I'm still a caveman wandering my way through the jungle, sometimes finding a piece of low hanging fruit to grab along the way. I did however enjoy partaking of one hatties fried chcken sandwiches though along the way which may have put me on steves trail in some small way. ;)

[keilan]

Nice catch point given, though I rarely respond to redboarders I think you're being sincere.

I posted this here yesterday for Saratoga.

Yesterday, 10:43 AM
keilan
Registered User

keilan's Avatar

Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: At the wire
Posts: 2,620
vCash: 100

Early p4

1-4/1-3-4/3-9-11/7-8-9

The 4 was scratched late but would anyone believe me if I said the 6 horse in the 1st leg was my next choice.

[Tom Barrister]

My understanding is that people are entitled to opinions on this forum, and conducting personal attacks on people who have a contrary opinion isn't allowed.

The keilan/Light pissing match is getting old.

[point given]

Nice catch point given, though I rarely respond to redboarders I think you're being sincere.

I posted this here yesterday for Saratoga.

Yesterday, 10:43 AM
keilan
Registered User

keilan's Avatar

Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: At the wire
Posts: 2,620
vCash: 100

Early p4

1-4/1-3-4/3-9-11/7-8-9

The 4 was scratched late but would anyone believe me if I said the 6 horse in the 1st leg was my next choice.

Sure, and I can also relate ,because I didnot have the 6 in but the 4 was a scratch, as he ran off in the PP and my buddy was nagging me about the 6 ,so I put him in because I didn't want to hear about it if he somehow won the damned race, which he did. My buddy agreed with the 1,3,7,11 for the 4th race, so I went with it and couldnot have come up with the 9 if not going all for the race. The late P4 killed me though because I originally had it right and changed it up , costing me a $1600 payday, but c'est la vie, been there done that enough that I should know better, which is why I saved with the p3 on the p4 bet, took some of the sting out. Funny thing is my buddy , who rarely gets involved witht the p4 tried to get me into it on saturday and I was clueless and didn't bite and he partnered with someone and they went down, so he was reticent to get involved with me yesterday , but we both did OK, so all is well that ends well.

[rrbauer]

Yes, first P4 off at 1:34, posted at 1:45.

Second P4 off at 3:50, posted at 3:55.

Since he bets these with real money, I think that is more than fair.

It's a "past post" for the first leg. Plenty of time to dress up the game. How about he shows the tickets? Man with his resources, that shouldn't be a problem. Especially if he's betting online.

[ezrabrooks]

What part of "Since he bets these with real money, I think that is more than fair" doesn't anyone understand?

Ez

[speed]

He posted a 4x5x5x5 ticket. Thats $500.There was no explanation of what combinations he was playing, then just credited himself as hitting it. You dont find that disingenuous?



I never mentioned singling. In fact I think you should avoid singling as much as possible. I think this is the main reason TVG dude's do so poorly in their Pk4's.




That ticket costs $288.

AB
ABCD
ABCDEF
ABCDEF

LMAO you think this ticket is $288 well it is for a $4 wager

[keilan]

It's a "past post" for the first leg. Plenty of time to dress up the game. How about he shows the tickets? Man with his resources, that shouldn't be a problem. Especially if he's betting online.


More than a reasonable request, if it were me I wouldn't have it any other way!

[speed]

My daughters net worth is much more than 1 mil and she's twelve. Whats your point?


Since my net worth is negative 4 million

May i volunteer for an arranged marriage?

[proximity]

. I did however enjoy partaking of one hatties fried chcken sandwiches though along the way which may have put me on steves trail in some small way. ;)

the development of an aversion to barber shops is probably the next landmark on your journey....:)

[firstoffclaim]

I think that posting the play after the 1st leg is a redboard anyway you look at it. I doubt Crist is rearranging his play, but what handicapper wants to read about his " 40.00 singled A in the 1st leg" after it happens. It seems that his readers have fallen into the same bad habit of posting their huge hits after the race(s). Another problem with Crist is calling a 1500.00 pic-4 measly. Most of us would be quite happy with that. As another poster stated, a guy with his money should not be worried about someone playing his stuff for a couple of bucks.Crist seems to be a good guy, but he must stop the redboarding and his blog readers should stop egging him on.

[Irish Boy]

I call BS. When has Crist ever claimed to have singled a longshot on the first leg of a multirace play? Actually, since the first race of pick 4s and 6s tend to be maiden races, he goes extremely deep. He went six deep in the early pick four yesterday and four deep in the late one.

[Fastracehorse]

I call BS. When has Crist ever claimed to have singled a longshot on the first leg of a multirace play? Actually, since the first race of pick 4s and 6s tend to be maiden races, he goes extremely deep. He went six deep in the early pick four yesterday and four deep in the late one.

Longshot doesn't mean they aren't solid plays.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

I think that posting the play after the 1st leg is a redboard anyway you look at it. I doubt Crist is rearranging his play, but what handicapper wants to read about his " 40.00 singled A in the 1st leg" after it happens. It seems that his readers have fallen into the same bad habit of posting their huge hits after the race(s). Another problem with Crist is calling a 1500.00 pic-4 measly. Most of us would be quite happy with that. As another poster stated, a guy with his money should not be worried about someone playing his stuff for a couple of bucks.Crist seems to be a good guy, but he must stop the redboarding and his blog readers should stop egging him on.

Bottomline is: U can't say U cashed your selections either; no proof. There is HONOUR in the selction process however; providing they r posted b4 the off-time.

Good post Claim,

fffastt

[Light]

What I don't understand is the rub, the irritation you have with public handicappers.

When I see people singing the praises of a loser,I'm going to open my mouth. Even though I live in Ca.now,I was born and raised in Brooklyn,so maybe that's it.(Hope that answers all those who think I'm a Jihadist too)

[keilan]

Light -- guys like Sterling , Crist and Beyer our friends to horse players. What are you? Don't answer me but do think about it.

PA, Light doesn't get the "keilan Seal of Approval" ;)

[Light]

keilan

Dude,I may rub the public handicappers the wrong way,but you sure rub me the wrong way. You came out of nowhere to hassle me when I made one comment in the selections section,and PA called you on it. Now you're continuing with this personal harrassment. Stop beating around the George Bush. What's your problem? I know you think I suck as a handicapper,but I bet you cant find 1 guy on this board who has won more handicapping prizes in contests on this board than me.

[keilan]

keilan

Dude,I may rub the public handicappers the wrong way,but you sure rub me the wrong way. You came out of nowhere to hassle me when I made one comment in the selections section,and PA called you on it. Now you're continuing with this personal harrassment. Stop beating around the George Bush. What's your problem? I know you think I suck as a handicapper,but I bet you cant find 1 guy on this board who has won more handicapping prizes in contests on this board than me.


PA was out of line on that as he occasionally is, you started with some name calling as is your mo. and I moved along. I have no idea about your handicapping abilities and now your claiming that I'm PERSONALLY HARASSING you. Stating that I have an opinion about you as a player!!! (I don't) Asking if I know of anyone that has won more handicapping prizes than you. (I don't have any idea what you're talking about)

Listen young man I want to be absolutely clear about this -- What you think or do will never matter to me because I simply don't care. Your interaction with me in this thread is a bit frightening and you should probably seek out someone that is qualified to help.

I politely asked that you refrain from responding to my previous post and you went off again. I have nothing further to offer you other than a good-bye.

[Irish Boy]

Longshot doesn't mean they aren't solid plays.

fffastt

True. I just can't remember a time when a 20-1 shot ever one in the first leg and Crist said "yep, I singled him, good call be me, here's the rest of my play". He tends to go deep in the first leg because they tend to be maiden crapshoots. If he wanted to be tricky, he'd make his plays look smaller.

As for the argument that his bets are too costly- yes, the pick 4 and pick 6 are beyond the bankroll of most players. But so what? He writes for the DRF, which is the specialist horseplayer publication; if not in the DRF, where are people supposed to talk about these things without being written off as bypassing the masses (you hear it about TVG all the time in regards to the multirace plays). He has written a book on multirace plays. That's just what he does, and he has a very clear rationale for it. He writes spectacularly, and I enjoy following his plays during the day as I sit in the office. I'm not sure what more people expect, but horseplayers will always find something new to complain about.

[WinterTriangle]

Well, in some ways, I kinda see Light's point.

I see public handicapper sites giving ridiculous wagers all the time.

To me, if you have to include so many horses in a wager, it's not handicapping......., its Lotto playing! Throwing 1/2 or more of the field in and hoping something sticks. :rolleyes:

And, it CAN get expensive. Esp. if you lose.

I personally don't have $2,000+ to wager on a card every day. I'm gonna assume that some do........but*most* don't.

I respect horseplayers who can "narrow down". Otherwise, I suspect they don't have very good handicapping skillls.

[CBedo]

Is Crist's giving out a pick 4 ticket that is too expensive any more ludicrous that than the TVG guys who "limit" their Pick 4s to $60 or less caveman tickets?

It's public handicapping. It is what it is.

[keilan]

Winter Triangle, Saratoga is a quality meet were some of the most promising horses in the country get their first test. It's a showcase for graded horses and top trainers to run for large purses and get some International attention. In many of these contests a case can be made for each horse as this is their proving ground.

IMO it's the astute public handicapper who tries to make a case for each worthy contender, only a fool would play this game with a single shot 22. Firstly not the best horse wins each race, secondly there are too many other variables in a race to discuss here and lastly it's ultimately about making money. Picking and playing the fastest and best horse in each race doesn't provide the most lucrative results.

Lots of guys/ gals can handicap but much fewer make any money. I read a thread today about whether a player could make decent wagers and win using the true favorite with the horses most likely to finish 2nd in the x's. My immediate reaction was "who cares" the question I'd be asking myself is where are the races w/ false favorites -- those are the races I want to exploit.

There are many skills a player learns over 30 years of bad beats but one of the most elementary and important questions is whether the betting favorites is legit or not!!!

[Java Gold@TFT]

For me I look at Crist's tickets to see how he structured them and not to see who he bet. I'm not going to put the :8: in my "A" slot in the 4th race just because Crist did if I don't like the horse to begin with. If I have a strong opinion on a single or two I really don't care if he went deepr than me because he has a bigger bankroll. Public handicappers are tools to be used to learn more about your own strengths and weaknesses. I have strong opinions on baby races and rarely go deeper than 2 in those races. Crist and Andy hate them and go a lot deeper than I ever would. I like to see why they picked certain horses and why they structured their bets certain ways but I pick my horses myself. Anyone who would just play Crist's P-4 ticket blindly because he played it should just get out of the game.

[DanG]

It seems like a good time to revisit Barry Meadow’s post from a TVG lynching party thread.

Barry Meadow ~ Occasionally on this forum there is the following bashing of folks on TVG or in the Form or their local paper, which goes something like this:

"Jimmy is an idiot. If you followed his selections you'd be down $2 trillion for this meet. I could do a better job of handicapping than he can. Why don't they give me the job?"

There is a vast difference between "professional handicapper" and "professional gambler." One has nothing to do with the other.

A professional handicapper has to turn in his work on time (if working for a newspaper) or show up at the studio for his shift every day. He has to prepare to either talk about or write about upcoming races. He has to follow the format required by the people who hire him (make a pick 6 ticket each day, select three best bets for a phone line, pick one horse in every race, say nice things about even the most incompetent trainer, etc.).

It is completely irrelevant to his being hired and retained whether he has ever made any money gambling.

The professional gambler has an opinion and takes personal financial risks; the professional handicapper simply has an opinion.

A professional handicapper doesn't have to earn any money from gambling. Whether he never gambles, plays for small stakes, or has lost every year of his life doesn't matter. His expertise at the windows, or lack thereof, has pretty much no effect on his ability to earn a living with his opinion of the races. I doubt that any television or newspaper handicapper has ever been fired because he picked too few winners or had a lousy ROI.

On television, they're hired to entertain, fill the space between races, and encourage people to play via their particular betting service. On radio, they push their 900 line or are there to sell commericals. In a newspaper, they satisfy certain customers who buy the paper solely to read the daily handicap.

Should you pay attention to the opinion of a professional handicapper? If you haven't seen a particular race and a professional handicapper tells you that A's win was a bias-aided setup, or if you don't attend the morning workouts and a clocker lets you know that B is suddenly training much sharper than usual, you can benefit from these professionals' expertise.

Just don't take their selections seriously.

And give these guys a break.

[Grits]

When I see people singing the praises of a loser,I'm going to open my mouth. Even though I live in Ca.now,I was born and raised in Brooklyn,so maybe that's it.(Hope that answers all those who think I'm a Jihadist too)

Light, I've never thought of you, or anyone here, certainly, as a Jihadist. Though, even such comments can be viewed as extreme. LOL
Too, I've never felt the desire to term anyone a loser--it would do absolutely nothing to elevate my perceived status or my self esteem. Where you were born and raised has no relevance to the topic either. One's zip code doesn't dictate, necessarily, one's knowledge of . . . New York racing or Florida racing. Midwest racing or Cal racing.

What I'm saying is . . . we have a different perspective on the weight these matters carry. As I've noted, not all of us do this for a living, or have contest experience and success.

And Keilan, thank you for the exacta and super notes, while I know they are good ones, I didn't want to take the topic further off course. Like the guys at Keeneland, I can (and have) wheeled and then raised hell when I lost. Often now, I box them. Been known to use 5, now and then--not often, (with longshots) in a 10 or 12 horse field. Dumb bet, yeah. If I lose. But when the favorite or the 2nd choice both run out, it suits me fine. And, my blood pressure remains, its calm, even, 110 over 70.

The situation these threads result in can sometimes boil down to one thing. Testosterone. Something females lack. And for that, I'm grateful.

[schweitz]

it's ultimately about making money. Picking and playing the fastest and best horse in each race doesn't provide the most lucrative results.


BINGO! In my opinion it's not about how few selections you used in your pick-4 that makes you a good handicapper but whether you can show a profit long term no matter how you structure your pick-4 wager.

[Light]

There is a vast difference between "professional handicapper" and "professional gambler." One has nothing to do with the other.

The professional gambler has an opinion and takes personal financial risks; the professional handicapper simply has an opinion.

I disagree that there is no connection between the two. You first have to be a successful handicapper before becoming a successful gambler. If you are not a successful handicapper,it is a quantum leap to think that somehow you can turn a losing ROI as a handicapper into success as a gambler.

[Java Gold@TFT]

I disagree that there is no connection between the two. You first have to be a successful handicapper before becoming a successful gambler. If you are not a successful handicapper,it is a quantum leap to think that somehow you can turn a losing ROI as a handicapper into success as a gambler.
I've met quite a few 'charters' over the years who would say otherwise. Some don't even look at PP's or a program. All they do is sit there with their pads and chart odds changes and betting patterns with exacta probables. Some of them really do make money. They are pure gamblers and don't have a handicapping bone in their body. Some tried it at the start but weren't good at it so in order to make a living they just follow other people's money.

[Light]

Well we all know that being a successful handicapper ROI wise on paper,does not guarantee you will be a successful gambler. We mostly blow it. We play the exactas when our pk3's would have hit or vice versa. Or we should have just played our top picks to win,but played exactas instead etc,etc. Figuring out what to play and what will pay for optimum profits is alot harder than handicapping. This is a step up in class. You almost have to be psychic. Like about a year ago, I noticed my top 2 picks would have cleared a big pk6 in NY that nobody caught. So can I take credit for that? Hell no. I handicapped correctly but sucked in forsight. Great on hindsight but like I said,nobody gets paid for that in the real world. So if I was a public handicapper,people would praise me and say what a great handicapper I was. Caught a big pk6 on paper. That means squat when you couldn't figure out beforehand what to do with your picks. How should I have known my top 2 picks would catch every race? Most of the time they dont so there was no reason for me to even think of playing the pk6. The only way I would have caught it would be to play it everyday with some psychic notion that I was going to hit it. In the meantime I probably would have gone broke by the time it came around. Just totally impractical to pamper someone about.Childish and irrelevant.You still get goose eggs to show for it and thats the bottom line.

That's just one example of how difficult it is to be a good handicapper with a positive ROI on paper and step into the finesse of a gamblers world. But to expect someone who cant even break even on paper to enter a gamblers world and do what successful handicapers on paper can't do is in the words of Spock "Not Logical".

[castaway01]

Since some of you are only here to troll and don't actually seem to pay attention to Crist's posts, he posts after the start of the first leg of Pick 4s and Pick 6s every single time. The idea is that he's spending up to a couple thousand dollars to come up with these complicated Pick 6 tickets with As, Bs, and Cs and he wants to prevent anyone from piggybacking his picks. I have absolutely no problem with it---as if posting after the first leg of a Pick 6 means he's automatically going to hit it.

[Bison]

Since some of you are only here to troll and don't actually seem to pay attention to Crist's posts, he posts after the start of the first leg of Pick 4s and Pick 6s every single time. The idea is that he's spending up to a couple thousand dollars to come up with these complicated Pick 6 tickets with As, Bs, and Cs and he wants to prevent anyone from piggybacking his picks. I have absolutely no problem with it---as if posting after the first leg of a Pick 6 means he's automatically going to hit it.

This a bogus way of doing it. Mysteriously, he always survives the first leg.

[Bison]

This a bogus way of doing it. Mysteriously, he always survives the first leg.

I recant. I see he has his pick 4's posted before the 7th. Sorry.

[firstoffclaim]

yea, he listed the late pic-4 today before the 1st leg, and came up with zip:eek:

[Bison]

yea, he listed the late pic-4 today before the 1st leg, and came up with zip:eek:

Interesting, indeed.

[the little guy]

Interesting, indeed.

I laughed.

Keep knocking the few people that make a positive difference in this game for horseplayers. What exactly have you done?

[firstoffclaim]

Andy reveres Crist, yet rips the other cappers on the show mercilessly. If I was Litfin, I would put that dunce cap on him permanently;)

[the little guy]

TLG was actually right about the last race today. He made a good call on Apple Grove.

If I had seen your comments that I'm never right, I would have bet more. ;)

[Tom Barrister]

PA was out of line on that as he occasionally is, you started with some name calling as is your mo. and I moved along. I have no idea about your handicapping abilities and now your claiming that I'm PERSONALLY HARASSING you. Stating that I have an opinion about you as a player!!! (I don't) Asking if I know of anyone that has won more handicapping prizes than you. (I don't have any idea what you're talking about)

Listen young man I want to be absolutely clear about this -- What you think or do will never matter to me because I simply don't care. Your interaction with me in this thread is a bit frightening and you should probably seek out someone that is qualified to help.

I politely asked that you refrain from responding to my previous post and you went off again. I have nothing further to offer you other than a good-bye.

You're way out of line, mister.

[keilan]

You're way out of line, mister.


Really, why don't spend more time constructing your p4's and less time reading my post. You didn't do so well today.

[Fastracehorse]

True. I just can't remember a time when a 20-1 shot ever one in the first leg and Crist said "yep, I singled him, good call be me, here's the rest of my play". He tends to go deep in the first leg because they tend to be maiden crapshoots. If he wanted to be tricky, he'd make his plays look smaller.

As for the argument that his bets are too costly- yes, the pick 4 and pick 6 are beyond the bankroll of most players. But so what? He writes for the DRF, which is the specialist horseplayer publication; if not in the DRF, where are people supposed to talk about these things without being written off as bypassing the masses (you hear it about TVG all the time in regards to the multirace plays). He has written a book on multirace plays. That's just what he does, and he has a very clear rationale for it. He writes spectacularly, and I enjoy following his plays during the day as I sit in the office. I'm not sure what more people expect, but horseplayers will always find something new to complain about.

.........in the fabrication of the tickets in terms of ROI over longterm. This would be a more useful study for a serious player because I think most of us know how to fabricate a $260 p-4. But as you know, it's important not to burn out over time. I agree, Crist's p-4's may attract more readership. My favorite writer was Beyer.

fffastt

[Tom Barrister]

Really, why don't spend more time constructing your p4's and less time reading my post. You didn't do so well today.

If that's the best you can do, then you aren't worth the time of anybody who values their time.

I don't play the pick four, and you have no way of knowing how I did yesterday or even if I made any bets.

[toetoe]

I regret that my businesslike thread has been hijacked and driven into off-topic hell.

Bison,

I beseech you to refrain from the namecalling that is typical of other boards. We can do better hereon. :) .

I have spoken with Light, and he has ... well, seen the light ... sort of. Crist does not always bend over backward to explain his tickets, so Light was at sea. I think he has a new appreciation of the method's worth.

Grits,

Thanks for your discretion. What are you doing tonight ? ;)

[ezrabrooks]

I regret that my businesslike thread has been hijacked and driven into off-topic hell.

Bison,

I beseech you to refrain from the namecalling that is typical of other boards. We can do better hereon. :) .

I have spoken with Light, and he has ... well, seen the light ... sort of. Crist does not always bend over backward to explain his tickets, so Light was at sea. I think he has a new appreciation of the method's worth.

Grits,

Thanks for your discretion. What are you doing tonight ? ;)

Hey Toe...I thought you were just serving one up for your buddy Light to knock out of the park. And you thought Light wouldn't jump on this Thread like a duck on a june bug? Come on..

Ez

[toetoe]

Today's ticket was a real mess. I won't get into it, but it's almost inexplicable, and I think its cost is miscalculated.

I'll wait for a tidier day.

Bison,

If TLG called you something nasty, I didn't see it. Maybe I'm like the ref that throws the flag on the guy that responds to a foul.

[Grits]

jump on this Thread like a duck on a june bug

LOLOL

At last . . . . some humor!

Ez, I don't know where you reside, but you're bound to have Southerner somewhere in your bloodlines.

Toe, I hate that your thread took a hard left. (There's a poor choice of words--given I'm lefthanded.) Anyway, there's just no such thing as decorum anymore is there?
The internet has become the worst places on earth for one to carry on a civil conversation.

[nobeyerspls]

I regret that my businesslike thread has been hijacked and driven into off-topic hell.

Bison,

I beseech you to refrain from the namecalling that is typical of other boards. We can do better hereon. :) .

I have spoken with Light, and he has ... well, seen the light ... sort of. Crist does not always bend over backward to explain his tickets, so Light was at sea. I think he has a new appreciation of the method's worth.

Grits,

Thanks for your discretion. What are you doing tonight ? ;)

I wanted to post on this thread but too many off-topic posts ruined it. I started a new one on horizontal wagers and look forward to your input.

[Light]

NB

But it's more fun to beat up on Crist and TLG than to just talk theory... What? That was a joke. ;)

Toeman

Now that you have shown me how to figure out what Crist does in his Pk4's where he doesn't state what he is doing or how much he is betting, I'd say his method is strictly created for him. He chops his ticket by a varying percentage but only practical when when you have a big amount you are going to put in. Most of us rarely play on that level. I still prefer my method which is to do a better job of handicapping to narrow down the contenders in a race. One method to achieve the narrowing down process if handicapping gets you nowhere is modeling. If the model is correct,you can play the percentages when they are in your favor like a blackjack player who counts cards and bets more when the odds are in his favor.

[PaceAdvantage]

I'm so freakin' tired of these RETREADS like Bison...what is their point when they are so obvious at times?

[PaceAdvantage]

If I had seen your comments that I'm never right, I would have bet more. ;)I couldn't bring myself to delete this comment (even though it references a deleted Bison post) because TLG actually used an emoticon for, I think, the second time ever...:lol:

[Grits]

I'm so freakin' tired of these RETREADS like Bison...what is their point when they are so obvious at times?

PA, how long does it take you to realize they're retreads, and probably not even Michelins?

I mean, really, do you just push a button, a filter, or what? LOLOL

[toetoe]

I couldn't bring myself to delete this comment (even though it references a deleted Bison post) because TLG actually used an emoticon for, I think, the second time ever...:lol:

Andy is hereby outed as a rightist; yes, he is an emoti-con. Hooboy.

There's a woman out there searching for Andy --- alias Mr. Right. :p .

[PaceAdvantage]

PA, how long does it take you to realize they're retreads, and probably not even Michelins?

I mean, really, do you just push a button, a filter, or what? LOLOLIt usually doesn't take long for them to set the alarms off in my head...then I go to the history books...:lol: