Great card at Saratoga Monday

[cees with dees]

I have so many winners, there's no telling how much we can lose!!
Starting in the first, Dynaslew was a victim of circumstances which easily cost him the victory in same class but much tougher field in last start. Leparoux need only steer.
In the second, Idle Gossip(speed adding blinkers) Cherokee Moonlight(turf to dirt and the inside closer) either or should get it done.
In the 3rd, So N So needs no introduction at a severely short price.
In the 4th, Platinumplus, finally gets back to turf and likes when there's some give in the course. Morning line choice need only avoid trouble to kill this field.
In the 5th, Kickapoo drops again searching for a victory. Is faster than all the other speeds and barn loves to win upstate.
In the 6th, All Zipped Up got the worst of it against runaway Dutrow piece. Now moves inside and gets lasix.
Just a repeat of that effort wins this and has more than a license to improve dramatically.
The 7th is wide open with Operation Red Dawn in a perfect spot. But must use Dirge just because he's Dirge.
Inca King is always tough especially when able to relax and Broad River goes out off the Mott claim and the claiming game not the norm so when he steps in, look for big improvement.
The 8th is wide open only because I don't know if Dance Gal Dance is fast enough to get around the 1.
In the last, The Other Buddy showed speed and stopped in two dirt tries now adds blinkers getting his preferred surface(I hope). Must overcome wide draw and the presence of Senegal who can win from on or off the pace and has the bottom and conditioning edge on most of these.
Good luck to all.
Ben

[theguarantee]

After capping a great week of betting off by going to the track today and turning in another profit (which should have been much bigger as i wasted a 31 dollar winner missing the back end of the double on the fave, terrible)...

I must say I agree with your analysis. I almost get an eerie feel about tomorrow though. The 2-5 pick-4 looks very easy, though the 4th strikes me as a tough one to cap, the other 3 look almost too easy.

Literally agree on all accounts other than the first where I see no value on Dynaslew. Could certainly win this, but at those odds I like almost all of the other horses more in terms of value, with Tempest Storm the best shot to actually hit the wire first.

Good luck.

[cees with dees]

I just think Dynaslew is tons better than these and though I'd never bet him to win, the doubles should be fair with the 1 and 2 in the second and then the odds on horse in the 3rd for a small investment pick 3.
It bothers me when people say "there's no value". There certainly isn't any value in ripping a ticket and if I can turn and even money shot who I think can't lose, into a 2-1 shot or better by keying him in exotics, I consider that value.
It's along the same lines as when people say:it's a good betting race.
I don't consider a race of 12 starters, 8 of which are first time starters, a good betting race just because there is no prohibitive favorite. I pass or wheel those races if they come up in the pick 4's.
I think a good betting race is any race we can have a solid opinion. Regardless of price.
Good luck today and thank you for the feedback.
Ben

[cees with dees]

And by the way, anyone that can show a consistent profit at such a competitive meet like Saratoga, they're doing a good job.
Keep up the good work.
Ben

[lamboguy]

it would have been alot greater if they took the first race off the turf and let me unload on tight boundry like i was praying for last night. instead they took the 2yo maiden off.:mad:

[cees with dees]

The early pick 4 is a layup for small money.
1,2/4/ALL/7 $18
1,2/4/4,6,11/7 $6 but pressing it 5 times.
Ben

[keilan]

Early p4

1-4/1-3-4/3-9-11/7-8-9

[theguarantee]

Well, sometimes an eerie feeling is alright I guess.

Was dead wrong on Dynaslew, he broke the gate and then won, which I don't recall much ever seeing...obviously much the best there.

I did take half the double, pick-3 and pick-4 for race 5.

Played :1: :2: :4: :6: :8: / :4: / :3: :9: :11: / :7:

:4: :4: / :3: :4: :6: :9: :10: :11: / :3: :7:

:3: :5: :7: :9: :11: / :3: :7:

Not great plays on the pk-3 and double, but were minor hedges with a chance to add on a bit. All total a little under 700, minus whatever those crooks at the OTB take out. Should have went to the track today and not yesterday I suppose.

[theguarantee]

^I should mention I usually don't play a ton of horses on doubles, pick-3's or pick-4's...and at one point I almost was going to play 2/4/3,9,11 maybe another or two/7 for a buck a few times.

Also, to respond to your comment about value. I am actually in the same boat as you. Hence using So N So. My point was not that a horse at 7/5 has no value...just that I didn't think Dynaslew in that race at those odds did. But, like I said..you were right there.

[firstoffclaim]

And by the way, anyone that can show a consistent profit at such a competitive meet like Saratoga, they're doing a good job.
Keep up the good work.
Ben

Ben,
You're doing OK at the Spa considering the calk ban and the "hold the rail" theory is not a good Spa angle. I'll wait until the inner track to follow your plays, but wish you all the best at the Spa.