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bobbyt62
08-23-2009, 05:18 PM
i'll still be on here every day, but i gotta stop betting. i used to keep track of wins/losses in the 80's and 90's, with a net small gain, but it was a hobby anyway. the game has eclipsed me,and more to the point, the odds have eclipsed me. always a win only bettor (thus the 16 year gain of less than 20k), i had resigned myself to small hobby losses of $2000/yr in recent years. but the last year or two is worse, based on anecdotal recall (i quit keeping track when i resigned myself to not being able to win at a game i still enjoy). but i can't take it anymore. two most galling (many more i won't recount) are today at FL and last month at LAD. last race today at FL i bet $200 on #11 with 1 mtp (AT AN OFFSHORE WHICH IS OPEN RIGHT UP UNTIL POST) at 9-2. the horse had vacillated between 9-2 and 5-1 in a race the crowd couldn't make a favorite in. the horse lost, which i can easily accept. but after the race, i see his odds were 2-1. 2-1 !!! i would't have bet the horse at 2-1. i could see him slipping to 4-1/7-2 during the load (that's how late i bet) but 2-1 is a joke. last month a i had a bob young firster that i bet AS THE FIRST HORSE LOADED at 10-1. offshore bet for $100 paid 5-1 and change. 5-1 !!! sorry for the exclaimations, but remember, i'm only bringing up two, a lot of which has to do with the fact i've only bet 8 or 10 races in the last 6 weeks--though i watch tvg all the time. i love the game, but i'm capable of betting abstention, and that's what i gotta do. i'm just a fan now. i'll even renew my subscription to simulcast weekly when it's due in december, and i'll bet the BC and the KD. but that's it. i'm writing this in "public" to reinforce my resignation. good luck, and don't hold it against me when i chime in on someone else's thread.

Onion Monster
08-23-2009, 06:11 PM
"The man who runs away may fight again."

Demosthenes

lamboguy
08-23-2009, 06:32 PM
i'll still be on here every day, but i gotta stop betting. i used to keep track of wins/losses in the 80's and 90's, with a net small gain, but it was a hobby anyway. the game has eclipsed me,and more to the point, the odds have eclipsed me. always a win only bettor (thus the 16 year gain of less than 20k), i had resigned myself to small hobby losses of $2000/yr in recent years. but the last year or two is worse, based on anecdotal recall (i quit keeping track when i resigned myself to not being able to win at a game i still enjoy). but i can't take it anymore. two most galling (many more i won't recount) are today at FL and last month at LAD. last race today at FL i bet $200 on #11 with 1 mtp (AT AN OFFSHORE WHICH IS OPEN RIGHT UP UNTIL POST) at 9-2. the horse had vacillated between 9-2 and 5-1 in a race the crowd couldn't make a favorite in. the horse lost, which i can easily accept. but after the race, i see his odds were 2-1. 2-1 !!! i would't have bet the horse at 2-1. i could see him slipping to 4-1/7-2 during the load (that's how late i bet) but 2-1 is a joke. last month a i had a bob young firster that i bet AS THE FIRST HORSE LOADED at 10-1. offshore bet for $100 paid 5-1 and change. 5-1 !!! sorry for the exclaimations, but remember, i'm only bringing up two, a lot of which has to do with the fact i've only bet 8 or 10 races in the last 6 weeks--though i watch tvg all the time. i love the game, but i'm capable of betting abstention, and that's what i gotta do. i'm just a fan now. i'll even renew my subscription to simulcast weekly when it's due in december, and i'll bet the BC and the KD. but that's it. i'm writing this in "public" to reinforce my resignation. good luck, and don't hold it against me when i chime in on someone else's thread.i hate to agree with you but i do. i cannot blame you.

ryanxpress
08-23-2009, 06:40 PM
im on the same boat after today..need some time off..I usually shut it down after the breeders cup until gulfstream,but the Spa has been tough and Del Mar has raped me..

kenwoodallpromos
08-23-2009, 08:24 PM
Yes, I agree with you totally-- I also want to be the only one to bet at the last second!!
It was just reported that 15% of the pools were last-second offshore bets- and guess what- yours is among them!!

bobbyt62
08-23-2009, 09:17 PM
i don't think the place i deal with sends the money into the pools. but even if they do, and it represents 15% of the win pool----and i'll just keep it to the examples i've already cited-----how does 15% make 10+ to one into 5-1 ? i'm still gonna enjoy watching racing on tvg (just watched a $1 million yearling lose for 25k in del mar's 9th) and looking at the pp's for the races ( i have a free source for a lot of them). i can easily see myself becoming a 2 times a year horse player, and betting/following basketball more .

InsideThePylons-MW
08-23-2009, 10:10 PM
Do you think you are the only one betting?

Are you the only one who can spot a horse that is an overlay at 1 MTP?

bisket
08-23-2009, 10:38 PM
both of the tracks the author of this thread named are small tracks. as i posted on another thread similar to this. when playing online play large tracks like saratoga. the pools are much larger and the pools won't move anywhere near as drastically. i stay away from small tracks like the ones you named for other reasons that i won't get into ona message board, but its safe to say on tracks like this jocks make more betting on races than winning them. this is strictly my opinion. ;)

ryesteve
08-23-2009, 10:47 PM
the horse had vacillated between 9-2 and 5-1 in a race the crowd couldn't make a favorite in.Not true... your horse was the favorite in the DD pool, the P3 pool and the P4 pool. You had every reason to expect he'd end up being the favorite.

lamboguy
08-23-2009, 10:49 PM
both of the tracks the author of this thread named are small tracks. as i posted on another thread similar to this. when playing online play large tracks like saratoga. the pools are much larger and the pools won't move anywhere near as drastically. i stay away from small tracks like the ones you named for other reasons that i won't get into ona message board, but its safe to say on tracks like this jocks make more betting on races than winning them. this is strictly my opinion. ;)do you mean to tell me that i should take up betting at SARATOGA, because they don't have science fiction odds movement's after the start of the race?

i stopped playing speed there years ago, but i am told they are getting some nice moves after the breaks. a guy told me he saw a horse drop from 5-2 to 7/5 with a 5 length lead, and the horse got beat at the wire.

Imriledup
08-23-2009, 11:02 PM
i'll still be on here every day, but i gotta stop betting. i used to keep track of wins/losses in the 80's and 90's, with a net small gain, but it was a hobby anyway. the game has eclipsed me,and more to the point, the odds have eclipsed me. always a win only bettor (thus the 16 year gain of less than 20k), i had resigned myself to small hobby losses of $2000/yr in recent years. but the last year or two is worse, based on anecdotal recall (i quit keeping track when i resigned myself to not being able to win at a game i still enjoy). but i can't take it anymore. two most galling (many more i won't recount) are today at FL and last month at LAD. last race today at FL i bet $200 on #11 with 1 mtp (AT AN OFFSHORE WHICH IS OPEN RIGHT UP UNTIL POST) at 9-2. the horse had vacillated between 9-2 and 5-1 in a race the crowd couldn't make a favorite in. the horse lost, which i can easily accept. but after the race, i see his odds were 2-1. 2-1 !!! i would't have bet the horse at 2-1. i could see him slipping to 4-1/7-2 during the load (that's how late i bet) but 2-1 is a joke. last month a i had a bob young firster that i bet AS THE FIRST HORSE LOADED at 10-1. offshore bet for $100 paid 5-1 and change. 5-1 !!! sorry for the exclaimations, but remember, i'm only bringing up two, a lot of which has to do with the fact i've only bet 8 or 10 races in the last 6 weeks--though i watch tvg all the time. i love the game, but i'm capable of betting abstention, and that's what i gotta do. i'm just a fan now. i'll even renew my subscription to simulcast weekly when it's due in december, and i'll bet the BC and the KD. but that's it. i'm writing this in "public" to reinforce my resignation. good luck, and don't hold it against me when i chime in on someone else's thread.


You are smart to take a break, clear your brain for a while and think things over.

In the tracks with smaller pools, you are not going to get the odds you see with 1 mtp or even 0 mtp. If there is a horse who is hanging at 9-2 and it deserves to be 2-1, its going to find a way to get down to 2-1.

Here's the thing you need to think about. If your horse was a great 9-2 shot and SHOULD have been 2-1, you can't be mad that the horse went down to 2-1. Maybe 2-1 was the efficient market price for this particular horse. Now, if 9-2 was proper market value and someone made him 2-1 this ought to excite you because this means that there is a big bettor at your track that doesn't really know what he's doing. Smart bettors are not going to bet horses who are SUPPOSED to be 9-2 down to 2-1 and be around much longer as bettors.

You said you wouldn't have bet this horse at 2-1, what i would like to know is what price did you believe this horse should have been to be fair market value? You're thinking 2-1 is too low and 9-2 was good value, so somewhere in between i'm guessing.

bobbyt62
08-23-2009, 11:33 PM
ITP--i don't think i'm the only one who can spot an overlay. in fact i often fail to do just that, especially lately. that's why i don't win anymore. as i mentioned, i've already accounted for losing (small) at horse racing because i enjoy the involvement. but if you mean to tell me that prior to the simulcast age, you saw 9-2/5-1 horses at 1 mtp go off at 2-1, well......i don't believe you. i cut my teeth on TDN and WAT(now mrn) and the wat handles used to be $200,000. that didn't happen. i will say that i don't necessarily think there is cheating or foul play going on. it's just that too much of the eventual pool comes in at ??? actual post time ???. i've had numerous bets in the last few years THAT I WOULD NEVER HAVE MADE if the odds were anywhere near the off odds. in too many cases, win odds are not reflective of reality. i'm pretty sure i'll still enjoy the game , i'll just be betting in my head---that way all i lose is my mind !

bobbyt62
08-23-2009, 11:46 PM
imriledup, didn't see your post before i put up my last reply....i went on hold to watch seinfeld. well, as i stated , my wagering volume has been on the wane in recent years, so i think quitting will only be a small challenge. to qoute a line from your post, imriledup, "smart bettors are not going to bet horses who are SUPPOSED to be 9-2 down to 2-1 and be around much longer as bettors" .......well, maybe my offshore does feed my money back in---if they do, IT WAS me-------and YOUR QUOTE IS RIGHT.

Marlin
08-23-2009, 11:59 PM
Bobby you should apply for TVGs new show called Handicapper Makeover. It's a show where they take a hopeless horseplayer and inject new strategy and money management techniques into your game. You get to meet top handicappers and listen to their advice. They turn you from you into a beautiful new winner.

P.S. I don't think this show really exists but I came up with the idea after reading your post and thought I'd share it. Maybe they could call it "The Handicapper Whisperer".:)

46zilzal
08-24-2009, 12:05 AM
Bobby you should apply for TVGs new show called Handicapper Makeover. It's a show where they take a hopeless horseplayer and inject new strategy and money management techniques into your game. You get to meet top handicappers and listen to their advice. They turn you from you into a beautiful new winner.

P.S. I don't think this show really exists but I came up with the idea after reading your post and thought I'd share it. Maybe they could call it "The Handicapper Whisperer".:)
TVG has competent handicappers? news to many of us

Imriledup
08-24-2009, 12:06 AM
Bobby i can't help but think that in your original post there is a feeling i get from you that you feel people are betting after the start or there is some other shenanigan's going on.


If you truly felt that everything was on the up and up, would you be walking away from the game with your hands in the air?

Personally, i feel that you need to address that you are just not able to win at this point, due 100% to yourself and not to anyone else.

You felt the need to give us an excuse as to why you are going away, but you really just needed to say "i'm not good enough to win at this point"

The most important thing a horseplayer can do when he's losing is to take responsibility and admit he's losing because he's not good enough.

bobbyt62
08-24-2009, 12:30 AM
as i mentioned in my first post, i haven't won in six years. only i am to blame. that's why i'm quitting.

WinterTriangle
08-24-2009, 01:12 AM
The most important thing a horseplayer can do when he's losing is to take responsibility and admit he's losing because he's not good enough.

It's great when a bettor gets on here and actually admits "THIS IS NOT WORKING".

to me, that's an opportunity to share information......isn't that what forums are here for?

Telling somebody theyre *not good enough* offers very little in the way of constructive usable information, if you ask me.


I think you could re phrase this because the way you wrote it sounds strange to me.

I would say that perhaps his research, wagering schemes, and the like needs another look and some further study and this would be a great opportunity to mentor wouldn't it?

"not good enough." sounds like something inherent, like youre not good enough to be a major league pitcher. :)

studying horse racing isn't rocket science. we all have to tweak it once in a while. What we come here for is to share stories, annoyances, and information, yes?

Imriledup
08-24-2009, 01:51 AM
It's great when a bettor gets on here and actually admits "THIS IS NOT WORKING".

to me, that's an opportunity to share information......isn't that what forums are here for?

Telling somebody theyre *not good enough* offers very little in the way of constructive usable information, if you ask me.


I think you could re phrase this because the way you wrote it sounds strange to me.

I would say that perhaps his research, wagering schemes, and the like needs another look and some further study and this would be a great opportunity to mentor wouldn't it?

"not good enough." sounds like something inherent, like youre not good enough to be a major league pitcher. :)

studying horse racing isn't rocket science. we all have to tweak it once in a while. What we come here for is to share stories, annoyances, and information, yes?

Meant not good enough at the moment. Should have added 'at the moment'.

Its never inherent. Anyone can be great, but i think the first step to being great is admitting that you're losing because you aren't currently good enough to win.

kenwoodallpromos
08-24-2009, 03:32 AM
I respect your opinions and decision, and suggest while watching TVG you observe the top 2 choices in races that are most predictable- turf, dirt sprints, between 6/5 and 5/2 (by the time the gate opens!).

Track Collector
08-24-2009, 12:04 PM
It is obvious that many folks like to wager very close to post time, and that this can and does lead to big changes in odds.

What may not be clear though, is that the cause of these odds changes may be due not only to the "late" money, but also in part by WHEN much earlier off-track wagers are mingled in to the host pool.

For example, let's say that I place a wager with 15 minutes before post at an off-track location or through an ADW. When does that wager get sent in to the host pool? Is it within 1 minute of my placing of the wager? Is it longer? Is the difference between when I place it and the host pool receiving it different based on how close it is to post time? Is it and can it be different between one day and the next, one race and the next, and the different OTW/ADW's? Perhaps those much more knowledgable with the process can chime in here. My point here is that it may be possible that many earlier wagers (which would make current odds closer to final ending odds) are not batched expeditiously, thus making them look like late money when they are in fact not.

pandy
08-24-2009, 12:16 PM
im on the same boat after today..need some time off..I usually shut it down after the breeders cup until gulfstream,but the Spa has been tough and Del Mar has raped me..

As some of you know I have a selection service, and I bet the same horses myself. For years, I showed a flat bet profit mainly because of my So. Cal picks, which were solid mainly because of longshot maiden winners. I picked my spots very carefully in New York, especially when Saratoga was running. In the winter of 2008 (the Pro Ride debacle), I had a very bad slump. That made me decide once and for all to follow more tracks. Since maiden races are my strengths, I simply look for good spots at various tracks. For instance, this year I've got profits at Arlington, Philadelphia, Presque Isle Downs, and Woodbine, even Lonestar.

I don't know how else to say this, these secondary tracks are simply much easier to handicap, especially this time of the year. Del Mar and Saratoga can be brutal. I used to destroy Del Mar but it is not what it once was, the quality is way down and the track bias changes too much.

My point is, if you're going to bet, you may be better off concentrating on one or more of the secondary tracks. Where is it written that we have to bet New York and So. Cal?

lamboguy
08-24-2009, 12:22 PM
As some of you know I have a selection service, and I bet the same horses myself. For years, I showed a flat bet profit mainly because of my So. Cal picks, which were solid mainly because of longshot maiden winners. I picked my spots very carefully in New York, especially when Saratoga was running. In the winter of 2008 (the Pro Ride debacle), I had a very bad slump. That made me decide once and for all to follow more tracks. Since maiden races are my strengths, I simply look for good spots at various tracks. For instance, this year I've got profits at Arlington, Philadelphia, Presque Isle Downs, and Woodbine, even Lonestar.

I don't know how else to say this, these secondary tracks are simply much easier to handicap, especially this time of the year. Del Mar and Saratoga can be brutal. I used to destroy Del Mar but it is not what it once was, the quality is way down and the track bias changes too much.

My point is, if you're going to bet, you may be better off concentrating on one or more of the secondary tracks. Where is it written that we have to bet New York and So. Cal?good one pandy, i want to add that there was always bias on delmar due to the proximity of the the ocean, high tide and low tide makes big diference there. i was alway's able to deal with that aspect, but the actual change in temperature got me to turn the page and skip over delmar because of the synthetic.

in mountaineer you get the changes because it is close to a river, and when it gets dark the track alway's changes along with the grounds crew regrating the track after the 5th race. and yes mr. mark paterson you know exactly what i am talking about. but that doesn't bother me because i expect it!

ryanxpress
08-24-2009, 06:22 PM
As some of you know I have a selection service, and I bet the same horses myself. For years, I showed a flat bet profit mainly because of my So. Cal picks, which were solid mainly because of longshot maiden winners. I picked my spots very carefully in New York, especially when Saratoga was running. In the winter of 2008 (the Pro Ride debacle), I had a very bad slump. That made me decide once and for all to follow more tracks. Since maiden races are my strengths, I simply look for good spots at various tracks. For instance, this year I've got profits at Arlington, Philadelphia, Presque Isle Downs, and Woodbine, even Lonestar.

I don't know how else to say this, these secondary tracks are simply much easier to handicap, especially this time of the year. Del Mar and Saratoga can be brutal. I used to destroy Del Mar but it is not what it once was, the quality is way down and the track bias changes too much.

My point is, if you're going to bet, you may be better off concentrating on one or more of the secondary tracks. Where is it written that we have to bet New York and So. Cal? where do you start when you your going to start following a different track?trainers/trends/jockeys/owners..you may have to go a whole meet before you could wager..

lamboguy
08-24-2009, 06:40 PM
It is obvious that many folks like to wager very close to post time, and that this can and does lead to big changes in odds.

What may not be clear though, is that the cause of these odds changes may be due not only to the "late" money, but also in part by WHEN much earlier off-track wagers are mingled in to the host pool.

For example, let's say that I place a wager with 15 minutes before post at an off-track location or through an ADW. When does that wager get sent in to the host pool? Is it within 1 minute of my placing of the wager? Is it longer? Is the difference between when I place it and the host pool receiving it different based on how close it is to post time? Is it and can it be different between one day and the next, one race and the next, and the different OTW/ADW's? Perhaps those much more knowledgable with the process can chime in here. My point here is that it may be possible that many earlier wagers (which would make current odds closer to final ending odds) are not batched expeditiously, thus making them look like late money when they are in fact not.that is a great explanation for the science fiction odds changes

dansan
08-24-2009, 06:49 PM
thats why I dont bet chalk unless I play exotic I 'll use them other wise if its a win bet 10-1 or higher

bisket
08-24-2009, 07:47 PM
one other thing i'd like to add to this discussion. don't pick what horse your going to play according to the odds. pick the horse your going to play, and let the odds determine how you bet the race. thats the most glaring thing i get from fromm bobby's first post!! bobby step back for awhile and clear your head and rework your handicapping. only play with spare change!!!!!!

pandy
08-24-2009, 08:16 PM
where do you start when you your going to start following a different track?trainers/trends/jockeys/owners..you may have to go a whole meet before you could wager..

All of this stuff with knowing a track inside out is overrated. I'll tell you a story, I've handicapped NYRA every day since I was a teenager. Back in 1999 a colleague of mine asked me to cover So. Cal for his spot play picks service for the summer. I knew nothing about So. Cal racing. I gave out 2 to 3 horses a day and showed a flat bet profit of 9%. I found it much easier than handicapping NY. That really opened up my eyes. I realized that all this stuff about having to know a circuit inside and out was bull. Years ago it helped to know the trainer patterns, etc., but all of the stats are now right in the form.

lamboguy
08-24-2009, 08:28 PM
All of this stuff with knowing a track inside out is overrated. I'll tell you a story, I've handicapped NYRA every day since I was a teenager. Back in 1999 a colleague of mine asked me to cover So. Cal for his spot play picks service for the summer. I knew nothing about So. Cal racing. I gave out 2 to 3 horses a day and showed a flat bet profit of 9%. I found it much easier than handicapping NY. That really opened up my eyes. I realized that all this stuff about having to know a circuit inside and out was bull. Years ago it helped to know the trainer patterns, etc., but all of the stats are now right in the form.i knew a guy his name was HUGO, he was a dog handicapper, he bet dog races before they had the grading system. back in1946 they started using the grading system in dogs, he then quit the game.

not that long ago there was no such thing as condition claimers in gulfstream. if you had a horse that won its maiden for $5000 you would have to face horses with 8 wins. i used to wait for those horses to come up north, like to sulfok, rockingham,waterford park,charlestown. and bet them all. i did pretty good with that.

pandy
08-24-2009, 08:49 PM
Smart Angle, I look for those shippers coming up north to weaker circuits too.

njcurveball
08-24-2009, 09:35 PM
today at FL and last month at LAD. last race today at FL i bet $200 on #11 with 1 mtp (AT AN OFFSHORE WHICH IS OPEN RIGHT UP UNTIL POST) at 9-2. the horse had vacillated between 9-2 and 5-1 in a race the crowd couldn't make a favorite in. the horse lost, which i can easily accept. but after the race, i see his odds were 2-1. 2-1 !!! i would't have bet the horse at 2-1. i could see him slipping to 4-1/7-2 during the load (that's how late i bet) but 2-1 is a joke. last month a i had a bob young firster that i bet AS THE FIRST HORSE LOADED at 10-1. offshore bet for $100 paid 5-1 and change. 5-1 !!! .

The trainer of #11, Chris Englehart has won 34% for a flat bet profit the last 30 days. The race had it's two morning line favorites scratched and this horse was 6-1 ML. #6 was also "bet down" from 8-1 ML to 3-1.

The amazing part of your story is that with all this "inside money" the horse that won was 35-1.

Why do all these well bet horses lose? That would be my question. :bang:

bisket
08-24-2009, 09:41 PM
delaware and monmouth for sure with the claimers :ThmbUp:

bobbyt62
08-24-2009, 10:56 PM
i'm quitting betting racing for now, but i'm not quitting the game, so i'll respond. lamboguy, before the form became TOO informative, i kept notebooks of wat and tdn and pen conditions. waterford had a lot of different conditions other than nwl's. did well with those dropdowns. pen was even better because they had a range of claiming prices (unlike waterfords 98+% 1500 claimers) and the florida/et al. invaders would be run open for, say $2500 (and given a race over the track to boot, AND generate a bad last line) and RISE IN CLASS for nw2. i find it very interesting that guys don't run out of conditions as much as they used to. bisket , i don't "pick what horse i'm going to play according to odds.....etc." i make a contender line, and bet 30-50 % (or so) overlays, win only. i'm not interested in gimmicks (other than carryover p6's) any more than i am in football parlays compared to single game bets. and i'm not interested in betting with spare change anymore than i'm interested in playing 5 and 10 cent 7 card stud. njcurveball, you have the wrong race---#11 is lecesse, no late or early scratches, 10-1 m/l opened at 7-1, and was 5-1/9-2 with 1 mtp. as you can see, at 9-2/ 5-1, i have a good bet if i make the horse 2-1. as horseplayers, we put up with a lot of nonsense anyway, but i can't bet, as an analogy, pittsburgh -2 1/2 at -110 at 12:58 sunday afternoon, only to be informed that when the game starts i actually have pittsburgh -4 1/2 -110. for DECADES, the 1 mtp market has not been this volatile. and i'm used to small tracks and mid majors. in the army, i attended las, evd, ded, op, pim, lrl,bowie, turfway,kee, etc. as well as my locals of wat, tdn, pen, and pha, and beu in college (darby downs then). hey, i hope everybody reading this is killin' it---i'm not and never have made a living from betting horses. i'm just a guy who loves the game and this board . but as i mentioned in the football analogy, i can't bet this anymore.

lamboguy
08-24-2009, 11:14 PM
i'm quitting betting racing for now, but i'm not quitting the game, so i'll respond. lamboguy, before the form became TOO informative, i kept notebooks of wat and tdn and pen conditions. waterford had a lot of different conditions other than nwl's. did well with those dropdowns. pen was even better because they had a range of claiming prices (unlike waterfords 98+% 1500 claimers) and the florida/et al. invaders would be run open for, say $2500 (and given a race over the track to boot, AND generate a bad last line) and RISE IN CLASS for nw2. i find it very interesting that guys don't run out of conditions as much as they used to. bisket , i don't "pick what horse i'm going to play according to odds.....etc." i make a contender line, and bet 30-50 % (or so) overlays, win only. i'm not interested in gimmicks (other than carryover p6's) any more than i am in football parlays compared to single game bets. and i'm not interested in betting with spare change anymore than i'm interested in playing 5 and 10 cent 7 card stud. njcurveball, you have the wrong race---#11 is lecesse, no late or early scratches, 10-1 m/l opened at 7-1, and was 5-1/9-2 with 1 mtp. as you can see, at 9-2/ 5-1, i have a good bet if i make the horse 2-1. as horseplayers, we put up with a lot of nonsense anyway, but i can't bet, as an analogy, pittsburgh -2 1/2 at -110 at 12:58 sunday afternoon, only to be informed that when the game starts i actually have pittsburgh -4 1/2 -110. for DECADES, the 1 mtp market has not been this volatile. and i'm used to small tracks and mid majors. in the army, i attended las, evd, ded, op, pim, lrl,bowie, turfway,kee, etc. as well as my locals of wat, tdn, pen, and pha, and beu in college (darby downs then). hey, i hope everybody reading this is killin' it---i'm not and never have made a living from betting horses. i'm just a guy who loves the game and this board . but as i mentioned in the football analogy, i can't bet this anymore.i appreciate your post, you seem like you have been through the wars of the horseracing game. for sure things have changed with reguards to information. it is readily accesable at your fingertips. in the old days you would always see people charting races by hand that come to the track with loads of papers. i remember a guy that came to the track with a 2 wheeler with 3 boxes of papers in it. he then paid for a full table in the clubhouse to place all his papers infront of him. what really gets me are the intangibles in the game these days, like the very big outfits that have money behind them. they get to bring the best horse to a race. whether it takes hydrobaric chambers, shockwave treatments, or drugs during training that all these guys are being accused of. for sure there are plenty of random results that you can't make any sense of in a million years. so its a completly different game today. thow in the fact that the percentage on the takeout is alot higher than the old days it makes the game of betting horses a complely worthless waste of time to anyone except for a recreational player. you can see why the game is in a steep decline, there are plenty of other things wrong that i really don't need to ruin your evening with tonight. but for a brief moment, you have brought out a breath of fresh air for me. i truly hope you remain healthy and live a long life.

bobbyt62
08-24-2009, 11:37 PM
lambo, i have been through the wars and enjoyed it all. i hope i'm clear that losing and random results, per se, haven't pushed me away. there are certainly other things besides THE FACTOR, but i can't accept 9-2 to 2-1 in the last 1 or 2 flashes after i've bet as late as possible, or the 10-1 to 5-1 AFTER the first horse loads. as a longtime gambler at sports, poker, casinos, and horses, i will not put up with getting my money "in bad" if i can help it. and i can by not betting. interesting betting (for me) involves knowing my approximate or exact odds. but i am definitely looking forward to the travers , woodward, the bc, et al. i'll buy the forms ( i still collect) and watch, but won't bet---i rarely bet big races anymore anyways. most of my bets (90%) were in maidens, but i'm done with that. for now.