True Favorite Exactas

[sligg]

I would like further comments on this betting angle:

The results for July 2009:

Boxing the true favorite with the 2nd and 3rd choice:

43 bets, collect on 28=65.1% for an ROI 19.2%

I read the previous comments on how these are bad bets and how one should couple the favorite with two solid 10/1 horses. Once again, how and with what consistency will you achieve? Can you do better than 65.1% collection rate? That is debatable?

The only plus for my method is that there is no handicapping involved and still get a 19.2% ROI, couple that with an 8% rebate...not too shabby. But that was for July, will it carry forward-I don't know but I will try in September.

[dav4463]

Every race I played at Arlington a couple of days ago had the result of a favorite and second favorite in the exacta. I lost every race I played that day. Perhaps I should take note of this post.

[fmolf]

Every race I played at Arlington a couple of days ago had the result of a favorite and second favorite in the exacta. I lost every race I played that day. Perhaps I should take note of this post.
look at the payout matrix and you to determine if you are getting value.I have a chart i believe it is from Meadows book.....there is a built in 10% overlay already in the prices given.This will tell you whether you are getting an overl'aid price on your exacta boxes.I believe this chart was reprinted in Quinn's The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping"..good luck...I do not shy away from exactas involving the two or three top favorites although i very very rarely box them.Sometimes i play a $1 box of 3 longshots just to have a watch bet on the race.

[ryesteve]

look at the payout matrix and you to determine if you are getting value.I can already tell you, he doesn't. He's depending upon an unrealistic hit rate in order to make a profit.

And about that hit rate... in a previious post, you decided to give up on this because of poor results for July '09. You had 64 bets where 53% of them finished 1st or 2nd. How did that get whittled down to 43 bets where 65% of them came in 1st or 2nd along with one of the other top 3 favorites?

And since your July results were bad, one might conclude that you had a disproportionate number of these horses finishing 2nd, which would lead to better exacta prices which aren't likely to carry forward.

[Robert Fischer]

I can already tell you, he doesn't. He's depending upon an unrealistic hit rate in order to make a profit.

And about that hit rate... in a previious post, you decided to give up on this because of poor results for July '09. You had 64 bets where 53% of them finished 1st or 2nd. How did that get whittled down to 43 bets where 65% of them came in 1st or 2nd along with one of the other top 3 favorites?

And since your July results were bad, one might conclude that you had a disproportionate number of these horses finishing 2nd, which would lead to better exacta prices which aren't likely to carry forward.
:confused:

I thought it was clear that this is either a guy fishing for suckers or an individual in his own world(neither of which i really have a problem with)...

[ryesteve]

I thought it was clear that this is either a guy fishing for suckersYou talking about the original poster? He's been posting here for a long time without ever asking anything from anyone.

[Robert Fischer]

You talking about the original poster? He's been posting here for a long time without ever asking anything from anyone.

yes.

never had a problem with him.

[sligg]

:confused:

I thought it was clear that this is either a guy fishing for suckers or an individual in his own world(neither of which i really have a problem with)...


What suckers are you talking about? I'm not asking for anything other than comments on my black box approach to handicapping.

My own world: Maybe you are right. I gave up on traditional handicapping because the grind, uncertainty, and old age wore me out. And isn't that why this forum exists: The holy grail. It's fast approaching somewhere, somehow, someone.

Viva, the Black Box.

Once again, all I want is comments on whether this is worth pursuing.

As Joe Penna, old time comedian would say, "Hey buddy, you want to buy a duck." But in this case, a horse or a horse selection for which I'm not selling either.

[dav4463]

look at the payout matrix and you to determine if you are getting value.I have a chart i believe it is from Meadows book.....there is a built in 10% overlay already in the prices given.This will tell you whether you are getting an overl'aid price on your exacta boxes.I believe this chart was reprinted in Quinn's The Best of Thoroughbred Handicapping"..good luck...I do not shy away from exactas involving the two or three top favorites although i very very rarely box them.Sometimes i play a $1 box of 3 longshots just to have a watch bet on the race.


I can tell you I had no value. It was 6/5 over a 2/1, 2/1 over a 8/5, etc.....no value, but that was all that was coming in on the races I bet. It was frustrating to watch the obvious horses run 1-2 over and over again.

[sligg]

I can already tell you, he doesn't. He's depending upon an unrealistic hit rate in order to make a profit.

And about that hit rate... in a previious post, you decided to give up on this because of poor results for July '09. You had 64 bets where 53% of them finished 1st or 2nd. How did that get whittled down to 43 bets where 65% of them came in 1st or 2nd along with one of the other top 3 favorites?

And since your July results were bad, one might conclude that you had a disproportionate number of these horses finishing 2nd, which would lead to better exacta prices which aren't likely to carry forward.

I started the exactas on July 10, thus the discrepancy. Of the 43 bets with the true favorite there were 17 bets where the TF came in first and 11 bets where the TF came in second for a total of 28 (65.1) ROI of 19.2%.

No handicapping, no judgment, no guessing games, just an old fashioned black box.

[sligg]

I can already tell you, he doesn't. He's depending upon an unrealistic hit rate in order to make a profit.

And about that hit rate... in a previious post, you decided to give up on this because of poor results for July '09. You had 64 bets where 53% of them finished 1st or 2nd. How did that get whittled down to 43 bets where 65% of them came in 1st or 2nd along with one of the other top 3 favorites?

And since your July results were bad, one might conclude that you had a disproportionate number of these horses finishing 2nd, which would lead to better exacta prices which aren't likely to carry forward.


The discrepancy is because I stared betting the exactas on July 10 so the full month wasn't covered.

There were 43 bets of which the TF won 17 and placed 11 for a total of 28 (65.1%) with a 19.2% ROI

No handicapping, no judgment, just a black box.

[markgoldie]

First, let me say I have no hard figures as to how this will hold up over the long term. However, as a person who worships theory (and I have done so since college), I can make a comment.

In pools where the possible number of combinations expand, such as exactas and even more radically, trifectas and superfectas, favorite combinations tend to become more and more overbet. That's because many players are unable to cover a significant number of combos due to bankroll restrictions. This alone is a powerful reason for the underlaying of favorite exactas.

However, there are other reasons why exotic pools overbet favorites. For example, if you like a longshot, it's relatively easy to put something on him to win. But if you want to play the same horse in an exacta, you are faced with a bunch of decisions- play him with the favorite? The co-favorite? Other longer-priced horses? No. It's easier to play him to win. Less investment. Cleaner and neater. For this reason, the longshot players (who should be balancing out the exacta pools like they do the win prices) tend to be less prominent in gimmicks.

In addition, exactas and other exotics attract chalk players who are not satisfied with the win price being offered. For example, if a favorite is 3-5, the chalk player knows he can't make much betting to win. So he may routinely look at the exacta probables, fishing for a better payoff. Here, he may select the second and third favorites for a 2-horse punch with a chance for better rewards. Also, the exacta may offer him some insurance against the favorite running second. This often happens when the favorite looks reasonably strong but a co-favorite or two may offer a risk. Here, the chalk player may want to hedge his opinion by palying the exacta, often for larger amounts with the favorite on top, but hedging the wager a bit with lesser plays with the favorite second to the two next choices.

The results of these effects tend to make favorite exactas overbet, no value propositions. Short term you may have some success, but you are bucking a strong theoretical trend for the long haul.

Mark

[bisket]

i play mostly exacta's and trifecta's and when worthwhile i'll have a win bet on a race. when there's a fav who i feel will win; i just play him with others if i feel i have a good insight on the exact order of finish. i mostly play 1 and 2$ tickets (wheeling and boxing them), but when a fav is gonna win i play 3-5$ straight exacta's and tri's. its just not worthwhile money wise to box or wheel a fav in the 1 hole in an exotic. this also leads to the exotic pool being overplayed with the favorite, but my return on my investment proves worthwhile over time. if i don't have a good insight on the exact order of finish in a race with the fav winning. i skip the race.

[WinterTriangle]

I read the previous comments on how these are bad bets and how one should couple the favorite with two solid 10/1 horses.

So basically, you are constructing your wagers purely based on odds?

You're assuming the odds you see are true odds, which they are not.

BOXING is very inefficient.....you're giving *equal* chances to horses that don't have equal chances. There are situations where I can't separate and then I pass the race.

I don't look at odds until I'm ready to construct. (Too many times, I've liked a 15-1 horse and if I know he's 15-1 I might shy off. Made a lot of mistakes doing that.) Anyway, I don't look at odds until I already *have* my horses.

Then, I will figure out the order and the payoff. I'm not interested in $6.00 exactas, so if it won't pay I don't bet.

I think there was a topic on this here recently about exacta theories (opposing pace {best early + best late}, P or S horses at fast tracks for place, unbalanced combo {speed but down in class or up in class but low speed}, lots of E and EPs will make a wall of horses that closers can pass, etc. ) Good read.

I've played around with a lot of stuff this year, including what you call "not handicapping"....jockey/trainer combos, trainer stats, scratched out of a race to enter another race, horses I put notifications in on my virtual stable, etc.

Good for you for experimenting. Just have a set time period for the experiment.

[bisket]

when choosing the horses that i like for a particular race i don't look at odds at all. when i reach a conclusion as to who i'm gonna play thats when i construct my ticket according to the odds. if odds are long on the one i like i'll give it a second look, but long odds don't scare me off a play. it actually inspires me to wager more on a race.

[andicap]

Favorites can sometimes offer great value in exactas if the bettors are confused enough to spread pretty deeply. I realized this yet again to my chagrin on Sunday at Saratoga's 9th race.

I liked the 5 and (a little less) the 11. The chalk was the 7 who i left out of most of my exotics because i thought it was a wide open race so why play a low price? The 5 was 9-2 when I bet it and 7-2 at post time. The 11 was 6-1.
The chalk won at 5-2 with my second choice finishing second, paid $59 for the exacta. I thought that represented pretty good value.

A 12-1 shot was third, the 7th choice in the race out of nine, and the TRI paid $573. So a hedge bet costing just $10 -- 7 (chalk)/5 and 11/5,11 and four others would have returned $286 for $10.

That is why all those "experts" who advise to always avoid favorites in exotics are dead wrong -- as experts often are.

Sure you have to pick your spots but it can be a pretty lucrative play in spread races and an excellent hedge/saver play. Now I'm not saying using the 7/5 exacta was necessarily value (I don't recall the will pays) but I would still submit a 7/5/ longshot tri would have paid decent money




First, let me say I have no hard figures as to how this will hold up over the long term. However, as a person who worships theory (and I have done so since college), I can make a comment.

In pools where the possible number of combinations expand, such as exactas and even more radically, trifectas and superfectas, favorite combinations tend to become more and more overbet. That's because many players are unable to cover a significant number of combos due to bankroll restrictions. This alone is a powerful reason for the underlaying of favorite exactas.

However, there are other reasons why exotic pools overbet favorites. For example, if you like a longshot, it's relatively easy to put something on him to win. But if you want to play the same horse in an exacta, you are faced with a bunch of decisions- play him with the favorite? The co-favorite? Other longer-priced horses? No. It's easier to play him to win. Less investment. Cleaner and neater. For this reason, the longshot players (who should be balancing out the exacta pools like they do the win prices) tend to be less prominent in gimmicks.

In addition, exactas and other exotics attract chalk players who are not satisfied with the win price being offered. For example, if a favorite is 3-5, the chalk player knows he can't make much betting to win. So he may routinely look at the exacta probables, fishing for a better payoff. Here, he may select the second and third favorites for a 2-horse punch with a chance for better rewards. Also, the exacta may offer him some insurance against the favorite running second. This often happens when the favorite looks reasonably strong but a co-favorite or two may offer a risk. Here, the chalk player may want to hedge his opinion by palying the exacta, often for larger amounts with the favorite on top, but hedging the wager a bit with lesser plays with the favorite second to the two next choices.

The results of these effects tend to make favorite exactas overbet, no value propositions. Short term you may have some success, but you are bucking a strong theoretical trend for the long haul.

Mark

[Tom]

Thursday, I caught one withe the fav over a 9-1 shot and it paid $48. I'll that all day long. The 9-1 was the one I liked, so I got 22-1 on him to place.

[markgoldie]

As we all know, you are a highly intelligent, thoughtful guy as well as a seasoned and successful handicapper and player. However, your post here is not up to your normal standards.

My post involved the theory behind playing favorite exactas and as we further know, general theories are not well-refuted by one-race anecdotes. But putting that aside, if you have any theoretical basis for believing that as a general rule favorite-types are overlaid in exactas or other gimmicks, I'd like to hear it. It's clear that favorites are underlaid in the win pool. To prove that, we can simply look at the ROI associated with playing all favorites to win. We can also look at the ROI associated with playing all second choices to confirm that they too are underlaid.

Now, if you have some theoretical reason to believe that combining these horses in an exacta (for example), where the possible combinations expand immensely, causes overplayed horses to be somehow overlooked such that they suddenly become profitable through their combination, I'm sure we'd all like to hear it. If it makes enough sense, I'd be willing to rethink my opinion, even though it would run counter to thousands of races that I hold anecdotally in my head. I'd also like to see a scientific study of some hundreds of races to either confirm or refute the question.

Mark

[fmolf]

one can make money betting the favorite in the exacta,as long as you check your charts to make sure you are getting an overlaid price.Sometimes you can look at the pp's and the first and second place horses are standouts.These combos will be overbet.If you box them you will lose any value you may have had.The best exacta plays i believe are the solid first second or third choice over a longer priced runner with a dissimilar style.I have had some success betting the only two speed horses in a lower class races, where none of the closers/pressers look to be in form.

[sligg]

one can make money betting the favorite in the exacta,as long as you check your charts to make sure you are getting an overlaid price.Sometimes you can look at the pp's and the first and second place horses are standouts.These combos will be overbet.If you box them you will lose any value you may have had.The best exacta plays i believe are the solid first second or third choice over a longer priced runner with a dissimilar style.I have had some success betting the only two speed horses in a lower class races, where none of the closers/pressers look to be in form.

What's good about the forums is the differing opinions which are all subjective and need to be tested. But that's all they are, untested opinions none of which would be of interest to me.

I don't want to think about handicapping anymore, it's too tiresome and I'm not that talented to think I know more than the next handicapper. And that is why I look for the black box.

What can be simpler? Find the True Favorite and close to post time, box it with the 2nd and 3rd choices. No thinking, no tinkering. Results for a partial month: 43 bets, 65% hit rate, 19% ROI. Nothing exceptional about these numbers other than they were positive. You can relax and maybe have a little fun if you don't take yourself too seriously and just play the game. If you let your ego soar, horse racing will deflate it for you.

I will test for September.

Sal

P.S. Any ADW with rebates worth checking?

[dav4463]

Have you tried it using the fair odds chart in Barry Meadow's book? How many plays would qualify using that chart?

[Space Monkey]

I understand where you're coming from Sligg, but do you realize that by playing that way, you'll never make much $ at all. Nickel and dimein it. :sleeping: More importantly, you'll never feel that excitement and pure joy of seeing a longshot you played come in. Why bother? You'd be better off playing the slots with the rest of the old folks. At least you'll have a chance of making a big score there. Well, unless you play the nickel slots :lol:

[Robert Fischer]

probability that a black box system would be profitable is extremely low.

on top of that add in that a parimutuel system with takeout is designed to slowly tax players who bet favorites without handicapping.


It's very bad.

but it could conceivably be fun to play with(if you don't think about it too seriously).

it also produces statistics that can sound attractive to the naive.

[sligg]

probability that a black box system would be profitable is extremely low.

on top of that add in that a parimutuel system with takeout is designed to slowly tax players who bet favorites without handicapping.


It's very bad.

but it could conceivably be fun to play with(if you don't think about it too seriously).

it also produces statistics that can sound attractive to the naive.

True Favorites are not just the post favorites. They are selected using factors in TSN's Insider Picks and Quick Play. They are so selective that I have gotten as high as >90% on place bets. These are not the 30% favorites. In over one year of testing, I never went below 60% on the win end in any one month. But at 60% there were no profits to be had, thus the idea of exactas came about.

My test with the exactas was for a partial July. I plan on testing for the month of September using TSN Advantage Plan @ $59.95. Wouldn't it be a surprise if the results are positive.

The Black Box: Exacta box the TF with the 2nd and 3rd post time choices.

I'm sure that all the handicapping experts can do better than 19% ROI by being more selective and/or more sophisticated in their picks for the second horse. But doing this month after month...maybe in your dreams.

Profits: How conservative can you get? Even if you bet $20 per exacta ticket my profit for the partial month of July would be $650. Stretching it to the full month, the profit may reach $1000 which is peanuts in today's economy. Bet $200 per ticket and that would impact the payout so the mutual system becomes self-defeating.

Getting rich playing the horses is a pipe dream.

[Robert Fischer]

I'm sure that all the handicapping experts can do better than 19% ROI by being more selective and/or more sophisticated in their picks for the second horse. But doing this month after month...maybe in your dreams.

Profits: How conservative can you get? Even if you bet $20 per exacta ticket my profit for the partial month of July would be $650. Stretching it to the full month, the profit may reach $1000 which is peanuts in today's economy. Bet $200 per ticket and that would impact the payout so the mutual system becomes self-defeating.

whoa whoa there slow down! lol
don't get backfitting a black box method and cherrypicking the most attractive bet type(in this case exactas) and adding in a best case rebate situation, confused with actually making the bets and showing a profit after all the bet types are accounted for.

and the reason the pari-mutuel system is against you has nothing to do with bet size - it is defeating you because of its basic nature:



the money goes into the pot
you get taxed (takeout)
your favorite wins!
EVERYONE ELSE WHO ALSO HAD YOUR FAVORITE SPLITS THAT REMAINING POOL WITH YOU
surest way to a slow death. - which for many admittedly may be better than losing a lot consistently.

using any numbers to generate selections from the high percentage end of or any numbers and skimming the high percentage just simply will not work for anything except generating a group of high percentage plays relatively consistently.


I don't want to discourage you from playing with it if it is entertaining to you. I am just explaining the pitfalls of it, if in fact you were genuinely asking us for our opinions of the method.

[Jeff P]

Sal, Nice going for finding a method that gets close to break even results with favorites - not the easiest thing in the world to do. Good work. :ThmbUp:

Mark, I mostly agree with your comments related to profitability of exotics, especially where favorites are concerned. The data sample that I'm about to post shows a general trend: favorites tend to be overbet in exactas.

Andy, Tom, As you both correctly pointed out - there are always exceptions to just about any general trend. And it pays to find them. It's what makes this game interesting.

The data sample below contains results I have for calendar year 2008 and the first six months of 2009 - 18 months in all - about 335,000 starters - from about 40,900 races.

All starters in the database - a flat $2.00 bet to WPS on each:
Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 507659.20 504239.50 504349.10
Bet -670628.00-670628.00-670628.00
Gain -162968.80-166388.50-166278.90

Wins 40955 81500 120093
Plays 335314 335314 335314
PCT .1221 .2431 .3582

ROI 0.7570 0.7519 0.7521
Avg Mut 12.40 6.19 4.20

All starters broken out by odds rank with the effect of a flat $2.00 bet to win on each:
By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -14267.00 84980.00 0.8321 14881 42490 .3502 2.8674
2 -15078.80 80664.00 0.8131 8422 40332 .2088 1.7097
3 -17489.40 80748.00 0.7834 5918 40374 .1466 1.2001
4 -17349.20 80442.00 0.7843 4294 40221 .1068 0.8741
5 -18193.90 80034.00 0.7727 3033 40017 .0758 0.6205
6 -18395.40 75580.00 0.7566 1994 37790 .0528 0.4320
7 -17158.50 64068.00 0.7322 1189 32034 .0371 0.3039
8 -14561.10 49140.00 0.7037 658 24570 .0268 0.2193
9 -11642.00 34504.00 0.6626 338 17252 .0196 0.1604
10 -8948.00 22610.00 0.6042 158 11305 .0140 0.1144
11 -5766.00 11034.00 0.4774 51 5517 .0092 0.0757
12 -3304.60 5756.00 0.4259 16 2878 .0056 0.0455
13 -655.10 730.00 0.1026 1 365 .0027 0.0224
14 -241.00 316.00 0.2373 1 158 .0063 0.0518
15 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
16 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
17 99.20 4.00 25.8000 1 2 .5000 4.0937
18 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
19+ -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000

An exacta matrix showing just the post time favorite with the other public choices broken out by odds rank... Fav over 2nd choice, Fav over 3rd choice, 4th choice, etc... down to the 8th public choice... and then a second matrix where the order of preference is reversed:
Exacta Matrix Odds Rank = 1

Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAV1/FAV2 004218 042490 0.0993 061805.40 -084980.00 -023174.60 0.7273
FAV1/FAV3 003227 042488 0.0760 064704.00 -084976.00 -020272.00 0.7614
FAV1/FAV4 002416 042437 0.0569 065591.20 -084874.00 -019282.80 0.7728
FAV1/FAV5 001818 041983 0.0433 066407.60 -083966.00 -017558.40 0.7909
FAV1/FAV6 001137 039765 0.0286 058417.80 -079530.00 -021112.20 0.7345
FAV1/FAV7 000678 033743 0.0201 046756.70 -067486.00 -020729.30 0.6928
FAV1/FAV8 000376 025831 0.0146 035196.90 -051662.00 -016465.10 0.6813
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAV1/X 013870 268737 0.0516 398879.60 -537474.00 -138594.40 0.7421


Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAV2/FAV1 003029 042490 0.0713 062341.40 -084980.00 -022638.60 0.7336
FAV3/FAV1 001987 042488 0.0468 061399.40 -084976.00 -023576.60 0.7225
FAV4/FAV1 001365 042437 0.0322 062737.60 -084874.00 -022136.40 0.7392
FAV5/FAV1 000873 041983 0.0208 057761.40 -083966.00 -026204.60 0.6879
FAV6/FAV1 000555 039765 0.0140 055509.90 -079530.00 -024020.10 0.6980
FAV7/FAV1 000320 033743 0.0095 046893.90 -067486.00 -020592.10 0.6949
FAV8/FAV1 000169 025831 0.0065 034539.90 -051662.00 -017122.10 0.6686
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X/FAV1 008298 268737 0.0309 381183.50 -537474.00 -156290.50 0.7092

Note that flat win bet roi for post time favorites is significantly higher than roi using favorites in exactas with the other public choices.

Sal, to my way of thinking - the only way to know whether or not profitable exacta play involving True Favorites is possible would be to record results and then make a careful analysis of what you have.

To that end can I offer a suggestion? Instead of looking at True Favorite over 2nd public choice or True Favorite over 3rd public choice... try something like True Favorite over YOUR 2nd choice or True Favorite over YOUR 3rd choice... or better yet: True Favorite over a horse YOUR handicapping says is being overlooked. My own results doing similar in exactas are much stronger than using horses chosen by the public.

Again, I think what you are doing has merit. Keep up the good work. :ThmbUp:


-jp

.

[fmolf]

Sal, Nice going for finding a method that gets close to break even results with favorites - not the easiest thing in the world to do. Good work. :ThmbUp:

Mark, I mostly agree with your comments related to profitability of exotics, especially where favorites are concerned. The data sample that I'm about to post shows a general trend: favorites tend to be overbet in exactas.

Andy, Tom, As you both correctly pointed out - there are always exceptions to just about any general trend. And it pays to find them. It's what makes this game interesting.

The data sample below contains results I have for calendar year 2008 and the first six months of 2009 - 18 months in all - about 335,000 starters - from about 40,900 races.

All starters in the database - a flat $2.00 bet to WPS on each:
Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 507659.20 504239.50 504349.10
Bet -670628.00-670628.00-670628.00
Gain -162968.80-166388.50-166278.90

Wins 40955 81500 120093
Plays 335314 335314 335314
PCT .1221 .2431 .3582

ROI 0.7570 0.7519 0.7521
Avg Mut 12.40 6.19 4.20

All starters broken out by odds rank with the effect of a flat $2.00 bet to win on each:
By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -14267.00 84980.00 0.8321 14881 42490 .3502 2.8674
2 -15078.80 80664.00 0.8131 8422 40332 .2088 1.7097
3 -17489.40 80748.00 0.7834 5918 40374 .1466 1.2001
4 -17349.20 80442.00 0.7843 4294 40221 .1068 0.8741
5 -18193.90 80034.00 0.7727 3033 40017 .0758 0.6205
6 -18395.40 75580.00 0.7566 1994 37790 .0528 0.4320
7 -17158.50 64068.00 0.7322 1189 32034 .0371 0.3039
8 -14561.10 49140.00 0.7037 658 24570 .0268 0.2193
9 -11642.00 34504.00 0.6626 338 17252 .0196 0.1604
10 -8948.00 22610.00 0.6042 158 11305 .0140 0.1144
11 -5766.00 11034.00 0.4774 51 5517 .0092 0.0757
12 -3304.60 5756.00 0.4259 16 2878 .0056 0.0455
13 -655.10 730.00 0.1026 1 365 .0027 0.0224
14 -241.00 316.00 0.2373 1 158 .0063 0.0518
15 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
16 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
17 99.20 4.00 25.8000 1 2 .5000 4.0937
18 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
19+ -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000

An exacta matrix showing just the post time favorite with the other public choices broken out by odds rank... Fav over 2nd choice, Fav over 3rd choice, 4th choice, etc... down to the 8th public choice... and then a second matrix where the order of preference is reversed:
Exacta Matrix Odds Rank = 1

Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAV1/FAV2 004218 042490 0.0993 061805.40 -084980.00 -023174.60 0.7273
FAV1/FAV3 003227 042488 0.0760 064704.00 -084976.00 -020272.00 0.7614
FAV1/FAV4 002416 042437 0.0569 065591.20 -084874.00 -019282.80 0.7728
FAV1/FAV5 001818 041983 0.0433 066407.60 -083966.00 -017558.40 0.7909
FAV1/FAV6 001137 039765 0.0286 058417.80 -079530.00 -021112.20 0.7345
FAV1/FAV7 000678 033743 0.0201 046756.70 -067486.00 -020729.30 0.6928
FAV1/FAV8 000376 025831 0.0146 035196.90 -051662.00 -016465.10 0.6813
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAV1/X 013870 268737 0.0516 398879.60 -537474.00 -138594.40 0.7421


Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAV2/FAV1 003029 042490 0.0713 062341.40 -084980.00 -022638.60 0.7336
FAV3/FAV1 001987 042488 0.0468 061399.40 -084976.00 -023576.60 0.7225
FAV4/FAV1 001365 042437 0.0322 062737.60 -084874.00 -022136.40 0.7392
FAV5/FAV1 000873 041983 0.0208 057761.40 -083966.00 -026204.60 0.6879
FAV6/FAV1 000555 039765 0.0140 055509.90 -079530.00 -024020.10 0.6980
FAV7/FAV1 000320 033743 0.0095 046893.90 -067486.00 -020592.10 0.6949
FAV8/FAV1 000169 025831 0.0065 034539.90 -051662.00 -017122.10 0.6686
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X/FAV1 008298 268737 0.0309 381183.50 -537474.00 -156290.50 0.7092

Note that flat win bet roi for post time favorites is significantly higher than roi using favorites in exactas with the other public choices.

Sal, to my way of thinking - the only way to know whether or not profitable exacta play involving True Favorites is possible would be to record results and then make a careful analysis of what you have.

To that end can I offer a suggestion? Instead of looking at True Favorite over 2nd public choice or True Favorite over 3rd public choice... try something like True Favorite over YOUR 2nd choice or True Favorite over YOUR 3rd choice... or better yet: True Favorite over a horse YOUR handicapping says is being overlooked. My own results doing similar in exactas are much stronger than using horses chosen by the public.

Again, I think what you are doing has merit. Keep up the good work. :ThmbUp:


-jp

.i have been playing solid favorites like that for years in the exactas.If my handicapping points me to an unbeatable favorite i look to handicap the race for second...then consult meadow's chart for the pays to see if i am getting an overlaid price.

[sligg]

Sal, Nice going for finding a method that gets close to break even results with favorites - not the easiest thing in the world to do. Good work. :ThmbUp:

Mark, I mostly agree with your comments related to profitability of exotics, especially where favorites are concerned. The data sample that I'm about to post shows a general trend: favorites tend to be overbet in exactas.

Andy, Tom, As you both correctly pointed out - there are always exceptions to just about any general trend. And it pays to find them. It's what makes this game interesting.

The data sample below contains results I have for calendar year 2008 and the first six months of 2009 - 18 months in all - about 335,000 starters - from about 40,900 races.

All starters in the database - a flat $2.00 bet to WPS on each:
Data Window Settings:
999 Divisor Odds Cap: None

SQL: SELECT * FROM STARTERHISTORY

Data Summary Win Place Show
Mutuel Totals 507659.20 504239.50 504349.10
Bet -670628.00-670628.00-670628.00
Gain -162968.80-166388.50-166278.90

Wins 40955 81500 120093
Plays 335314 335314 335314
PCT .1221 .2431 .3582

ROI 0.7570 0.7519 0.7521
Avg Mut 12.40 6.19 4.20

All starters broken out by odds rank with the effect of a flat $2.00 bet to win on each:
By: Odds Rank

Rank Gain Bet Roi Wins Plays Pct Impact
1 -14267.00 84980.00 0.8321 14881 42490 .3502 2.8674
2 -15078.80 80664.00 0.8131 8422 40332 .2088 1.7097
3 -17489.40 80748.00 0.7834 5918 40374 .1466 1.2001
4 -17349.20 80442.00 0.7843 4294 40221 .1068 0.8741
5 -18193.90 80034.00 0.7727 3033 40017 .0758 0.6205
6 -18395.40 75580.00 0.7566 1994 37790 .0528 0.4320
7 -17158.50 64068.00 0.7322 1189 32034 .0371 0.3039
8 -14561.10 49140.00 0.7037 658 24570 .0268 0.2193
9 -11642.00 34504.00 0.6626 338 17252 .0196 0.1604
10 -8948.00 22610.00 0.6042 158 11305 .0140 0.1144
11 -5766.00 11034.00 0.4774 51 5517 .0092 0.0757
12 -3304.60 5756.00 0.4259 16 2878 .0056 0.0455
13 -655.10 730.00 0.1026 1 365 .0027 0.0224
14 -241.00 316.00 0.2373 1 158 .0063 0.0518
15 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
16 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
17 99.20 4.00 25.8000 1 2 .5000 4.0937
18 -4.00 4.00 0.0000 0 2 .0000 0.0000
19+ -6.00 6.00 0.0000 0 3 .0000 0.0000

An exacta matrix showing just the post time favorite with the other public choices broken out by odds rank... Fav over 2nd choice, Fav over 3rd choice, 4th choice, etc... down to the 8th public choice... and then a second matrix where the order of preference is reversed:
Exacta Matrix Odds Rank = 1

Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAV1/FAV2 004218 042490 0.0993 061805.40 -084980.00 -023174.60 0.7273
FAV1/FAV3 003227 042488 0.0760 064704.00 -084976.00 -020272.00 0.7614
FAV1/FAV4 002416 042437 0.0569 065591.20 -084874.00 -019282.80 0.7728
FAV1/FAV5 001818 041983 0.0433 066407.60 -083966.00 -017558.40 0.7909
FAV1/FAV6 001137 039765 0.0286 058417.80 -079530.00 -021112.20 0.7345
FAV1/FAV7 000678 033743 0.0201 046756.70 -067486.00 -020729.30 0.6928
FAV1/FAV8 000376 025831 0.0146 035196.90 -051662.00 -016465.10 0.6813
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAV1/X 013870 268737 0.0516 398879.60 -537474.00 -138594.40 0.7421


Description Hits Plays Pct Mutuel Bet Gain Roi
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
FAV2/FAV1 003029 042490 0.0713 062341.40 -084980.00 -022638.60 0.7336
FAV3/FAV1 001987 042488 0.0468 061399.40 -084976.00 -023576.60 0.7225
FAV4/FAV1 001365 042437 0.0322 062737.60 -084874.00 -022136.40 0.7392
FAV5/FAV1 000873 041983 0.0208 057761.40 -083966.00 -026204.60 0.6879
FAV6/FAV1 000555 039765 0.0140 055509.90 -079530.00 -024020.10 0.6980
FAV7/FAV1 000320 033743 0.0095 046893.90 -067486.00 -020592.10 0.6949
FAV8/FAV1 000169 025831 0.0065 034539.90 -051662.00 -017122.10 0.6686
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
X/FAV1 008298 268737 0.0309 381183.50 -537474.00 -156290.50 0.7092

Note that flat win bet roi for post time favorites is significantly higher than roi using favorites in exactas with the other public choices.

Sal, to my way of thinking - the only way to know whether or not profitable exacta play involving True Favorites is possible would be to record results and then make a careful analysis of what you have.

To that end can I offer a suggestion? Instead of looking at True Favorite over 2nd public choice or True Favorite over 3rd public choice... try something like True Favorite over YOUR 2nd choice or True Favorite over YOUR 3rd choice... or better yet: True Favorite over a horse YOUR handicapping says is being overlooked. My own results doing similar in exactas are much stronger than using horses chosen by the public.

Again, I think what you are doing has merit. Keep up the good work. :ThmbUp:


-jp

.
Good suggestions. But doing this means no black box. I'm not handicapping so I don't have a 2nd or 3rd choice and I wouldn't know if any horse in a race is being overlooked. Data bases are a powerful aid to handicapping and can provide provocative statistics but they can also be overwhelming.

Apparently, my black box approach doesn't sit well with the handicappers on this forum. They are probably right and maybe my results for July were a fluke but I will try for one more month in September and I will post the results.

[fmolf]

Good suggestions. But doing this means no black box. I'm not handicapping so I don't have a 2nd or 3rd choice and I wouldn't know if any horse in a race is being overlooked. Data bases are a powerful aid to handicapping and can provide provocative statistics but they can also be overwhelming.

Apparently, my black box approach doesn't sit well with the handicappers on this forum. They are probably right and maybe my results for July were a fluke but I will try for one more month in September and I will post the results.
perhaps it might pay to keep the roi on the 4th and 5th choices as well?Maybe these two will offer greater value?...Just a thought...you probably have thought of it or actually did this already to no avail.

[sligg]

perhaps it might pay to keep the roi on the 4th and 5th choices as well?Maybe these two will offer greater value?...Just a thought...you probably have thought of it or actually did this already to no avail.


Isn't it true, the further out you go on the odds chain, the lower the hit rate.

There are so many ways to test the True Favorite concept, but I'm only one person and time is restrictive. And besides the amount of profit is not important other than to prove a methodology works. I'm committed to testing the TF with the 2nd and 3rd betting choice and if there is a better way, I will never know.

If there is no Black Box using the True Favorite, then on to the next method which will more than likely also prove fruitless, ad infinitum.

[AAcoolguy]

What can be simpler? Find the True Favorite and close to post time, box it with the 2nd and 3rd choices.

What do you consider the True Favorite? Obviously you aren't playing every race right? Your hit rate would be much smaller if you were, correct? And if you have a criteria for a True Favorite, isn't that handicapping? I'm not bashing your method I'm just curious. Thanks.

[riskman]

What do you consider the True Favorite? Obviously you aren't playing every race right? Your hit rate would be much smaller if you were, correct? And if you have a criteria for a True Favorite, isn't that handicapping? I'm not bashing your method I'm just curious. Thanks.

Go to post 24 of this thread. Sligg advises he is using TSN
Sheets. Maybe these? http://www.tsnhorse.com/samples/ppq.pdf

[AAcoolguy]

I should always read through the entire thread before I ask a question like that. But it still doesn't really answer what he considers a True Favorite and if he doesn't want to divulge that information that's ok too. I have used the TSN/BRIS sheets you suggest before and they can be very helpfull. Maybe he means the 3 star picks that come up every few days or so. Since there is not always a 3 star play every day, that would definitely cut down the number of plays in a month.

[sligg]

What do you consider the True Favorite? Obviously you aren't playing every race right? Your hit rate would be much smaller if you were, correct? And if you have a criteria for a True Favorite, isn't that handicapping? I'm not bashing your method I'm just curious. Thanks.

Handicapping is subjective, my True Favorite selection is mechanical, therefore everyone would select the same horse.

Selection must qualify on four factors:

1. Insider Picks
2. Quick Play
3. Trainer/Jockey stats.
4. Odds

All tracks and races are playable except for graded stakes and turf. This was done to minimize the work load from more than twenty tracks daily.

Using the two TSN PP charts, maybe there are other factors that might be more profitable, I don't know, and I will never know unless someone else does the work.

But then how much research is there in selecting a 2/5 favorite?