what's everyone's thoughts on summer bird in the travers

[bisket]

everyone's been obsessing over rachel and mtb. the pps won't be out for the travers for awhile yet, but one thing that looks to be a given if rachel and quality road are there the pace will be probably be fast. one thing that i took from haskell was i was impressed with summer birds race. they put him into the race more than we saw from him previously. i liked this new style for him and i think it moves him up for his next race. with the hot pace and long stretch at saratoga tactically this race could fall right into birds hands. could rachel and quality burn each other out enouigh to give summer a legit shot at winning? what are everyone's thoughts on this scenerio. hey it worked for exceller!!

[Java Gold@TFT]

Looks like Summer Bird will go back to his old ways and the Haskell was a one time deal:

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/editorial/news/article.cgi?id=15973

The pace scenario will be interesting. It looks like Zito will enter Our Edge who wants the lead. Whether Rachel or Kensei go, they would probably sit right off him. Then it's up for grabs with huge jockey decisions on positions as Quality Road, Warrior's Reward and Charitable Man will all probably try to stay fairly close with Quality Road being the quickest of them. That leaves a gap to Summer Bird if Ice is telling the truth and he wants to be 6 lengths back and then another gap to Mine That Bird. If Rachel is in then she and Quality Road pass Our Edge at the 3/8ths and start to seperate themselves from the rest of the field enterring the stretch. Summer Bird passes everyone else for 3rd. Without Rachel, Quality Road runs exactly the same race but doesn't have to contend with her in the stretch and cruises to an easy win. Summer Bird gets past Kensei to finish 2nd.

PP's for nominees are here:

http://www.equibase.com/premium/eqbHorsemenAreaDownloadAction.cfm?sn=SNPP-SAR-20090829-486852

[bisket]

just because he'll be 6 lengths back doesn't necessarily mean he'll run any differently in the travers. if he's 6 lengths off a faster pace it only means the other horses are running faster. i'm gonna have to really analyze summer's times when the pps come out. i just thought summer bird quietly improved in the haskell, and if things get out of hand the race could fall into his lap.

[Java Gold@TFT]

just because he'll be 6 lengths back doesn't necessarily mean he'll run any differently in the travers. if he's 6 lengths off a faster pace it only means the other horses are running faster. i'm gonna have to really analyze summer's times when the pps come out. i just thought summer bird quietly improved in the haskell, and if things get out of hand the race could fall into his lap.
No need to wait. Click on the link atthe end of my post. It gives the Equibase PP's for every horse nominated to the Travers. Before the Haskel SB had never even been within sniffing distance of a pace that was run around 47 and change. Suddenly he was near the pace when it went in 46 and change. Ice says it was a on race experiment and he'll sit back this time. If you really look at Rachel's and Qr's PP's they are both just very hign quality horses who are capable of running where needed for any given race. They both show a high cruising speed and the abilty to lay off of horses who may be going too fast up front. I honestly don't believe there will be any kind of speed duelif they both show up. They have just proven themselves to be superior runners who can sit and rate or just take over a race from the start. Summer Bird hasn't done the same.

[Robert Fischer]

he doesn't have a chance in hell, unless the quality of the race comes back to him like it did for Col. John/mambo Seattle

[DRIVEWAY]

Summer Bird is still lightly raced. Mile and a quarter should be right in his comfort zone. Haskill was a nice prep for this.

Will be in contention in stretch. If good enough gets picture taken.

Rachel will insure good odds. In my opinion, Rachel is a poor fit at this distance.

Summer Bird could pay $16.

[Hanover1]

Summer Bird is still lightly raced. Mile and a quarter should be right in his comfort zone. Haskill was a nice prep for this.

Will be in contention in stretch. If good enough gets picture taken.

Rachel will insure good odds. In my opinion, Rachel is a poor fit at this distance.

Summer Bird could pay $16.
Rachel is x factor-toss her and this bird has flown-I agree. QR reaching 2nd out after extended layoff, despite hot 6-1/2f last out, little birdie sez 1 more for him b4 ticket time.....but they DO make liars out of us.

[bisket]

these are the type of plays i like. you have two horses who are going to be very short in odds that are speed horses. one, quality road, may be the best horse on the track, but he's not going to be coming into a 1 1/4 mile race under optimum conditions so he may a little short. what i mean by short is you usually want to gradually step up in distance to a route like this. 1 mile to 1 1/8 mile then the classic distance. you have another that for the first time will have speed just as impressive as hers to contend with, and he's the first colt she'll face that has the stature to intimidate her. don't just glance over this as if its nothing. its a fact colts have the ability to bully the fillies. on top of that you have a 3 year old in summer bird who's been lightly raced and just may be ready show his true ability. hey he's probably gonna be 10-1. so you only have to right about a play like this 1 in 9 times to make money on this. horses aren't unbeatable. horses lose its part of the game. i'll have to wait for the pps but its just a thought going into the race.

[Hanover1]

I expect shorter than 10-1 on this bird. If he gets off like that then its the bank across the board-hedge bet using him in gimmicks, but I suspect no worse than 3rd choice going to post, perhaps 6-1 or lower imo. Rachel still x factor for me-need to see draw......However they draw, RA or not, This "bird" appears the value. Want to see RA in however, in a romp. Might tone down the skeptics.

[Space Monkey]

Well we have to see how the track is playing, but I'm surprised to read that RF says Summer Bird has virtually no chance. I don't think QR should be trying 1 1/4 at this stage and I expect him to be short and pressure RA like shes never been before. This race as of now, sets up for a closer.

[bisket]

if pps say bird has a shot this is how i would usually bet a situation like this. i think no matter how this shakes out you can cover this in the exotics with a few simple plays. quality and rachel keep it sensible up front and its a formful race. formful then i just bet the race according to who's i feel is best. 5$ straight tri: quality/rachel/ summer. they go a lttle faster for their own good. with quality coming in a little short he falls to third and maybe even out of top three. i'll have to see who shows up. 5$ tri wheel or straight summer/rachel/quality,maybe one more for third. 5$ win summer bird. even if summer's odds go past 10-1 this is still a 5$ win bet.

[eastie]

why would they run RA when it could be worth $20 million to them if Kensai wins the Travers ? It certasinly isn't gonna Make RA worth that much more. It's a no brainer, Kensai will run, not RA, and Summer Bird should prove tough to handle. Quality Road, however, has looked like a champion since breaking his maiden, and will win the Travers.

[bisket]

if they want to win they'll run rachel. running kensei is a pretty slick way of not running rachel and appearing like your trying not avoid the race for her. kensei is lucky to make the super.

[eastie]

they have everything to gain, and nothing to lose, by running Kensei. What is it that you are not comprehending ?

[Rico8812]

Belmont stakes winners are a good bet against for the rest of their careers. He'll be lame by the BC. Definite bet against at the Spa.

[Hanover1]

Belmont stakes winners are a good bet against for the rest of their careers. He'll be lame by the BC. Definite bet against at the Spa.
Despite my earlier post, history proves your point quite well. I will stay pat.

[Grits]

http://www.drf.com/news/article/106678.html

Announced this morning, MTB will not run.

[WinterTriangle]

I think Ice is out of his element in Sara and I always get the feeling he doens't know what stategy he wants to use for his horse. SB, IMHO, has no chance towin the Travers. Ditto for HMB, Mott hasn't figured this horse out yet as concerns surface, it's getting late, and he was training on turf?

I haven't looked at PPs, jocks or post positions yet, but I trust Wilkes, McLaughlin, Pletcher and Asmussen for a race like this. Unless anyone thinks Our Edge can wire 10F with little class?

[joanied]

I still haven't checked the post postitions, jocks ect. yet either, WinterT...but, no matter...since I can't bet $$...here's my pix for the Travers:

1-Quality Road
2-Kensei (I am torn between these two, so either one wins and I am way happy)
3-Summer Bird (I think he can get a piece of this today, if he handels the off track)
4-Warrior's Reward

all subject to change :D after I watch the paddock and post parade:)

GOOD LUCK today, WT:ThmbUp:

[andymays]

I like the Bird and I will bet him!


In fact................The Bird is the Word! http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZThquH5t0ow

[Stevie Belmont]

Lemon Drop Kid

Birdstone

Medaglia d'Oro


Belmont stakes winners are a good bet against for the rest of their careers. He'll be lame by the BC. Definite bet against at the Spa.

[dansan]

#2chariitable man#1 hold me back #5 our edge ex box

[depalma113]

Lemon Drop Kid

Birdstone

Medaglia d'Oro


That would actually be Point Given not MDO as that one finished second, but still three in the last ten years.

[bisket]

its a shame i didn't get to bet this one :bang: . i don't know if i woulda stuck with it after reading the form, but this was my tri box without the form!!! i thought summer bird improved in the haskell, and he wopuld move forward off his race.

[CincyHorseplayer]

its a shame i didn't get to bet this one :bang: . i don't know if i woulda stuck with it after reading the form, but this was my tri box without the form!!! i thought summer bird improved in the haskell, and he wopuld move forward off his race.

At 5/2 I don't think you missed out much.Plus if you really,really,really loved him you would have found a way to bet!;)

[bisket]

probably true. i coulda called one in, but withoput handicapping the race with the form. it wasn't worth it. i got back about 1/2 hour afterwards. hit some bigtime traffic on the jersey pike

[Tom]

Lemon Drop Kid

Birdstone

Medaglia d'Oro

Moss said on ESPN that 30 Belmont winners have taken the Travers.

[rastajenk]

Out of 59 that have tried. That's a pretty good stat.

[Hanover1]

I expect shorter than 10-1 on this bird. If he gets off like that then its the bank across the board-hedge bet using him in gimmicks, but I suspect no worse than 3rd choice going to post, perhaps 6-1 or lower imo. Rachel still x factor for me-need to see draw......However they draw, RA or not, This "bird" appears the value. Want to see RA in however, in a romp. Might tone down the skeptics.
This bird HAS flown........sweet day as Spa here. Not bad for a stupid ol horseman........ :rolleyes: