Learn how to win first

[dav4463]

I was at an OTB today and I never heard so many guys complain how they had the winner, but missed the exacta or missed the trifecta.

If you can pick winners and get value........BET SOMETHING TO WIN !

Play exotics too if you have the bankroll, but it hurts to throw away a solid $12.80 winner by playing $24 worth of losing exactas!...........I speak from experience! ;)

[rusrious]

great post, i agree 110%

[andymays]

I was at an OTB today and I never heard so many guys complain how they had the winner, but missed the exacta or missed the trifecta.

If you can pick winners and get value........BET SOMETHING TO WIN !

Play exotics too if you have the bankroll, but it hurts to throw away a solid $12.80 winner by playing $24 worth of losing exactas!...........I speak from experience! ;)



Absolutely! :ThmbUp:

[Fastracehorse]

I was at an OTB today and I never heard so many guys complain how they had the winner, but missed the exacta or missed the trifecta.

If you can pick winners and get value........BET SOMETHING TO WIN !

Play exotics too if you have the bankroll, but it hurts to throw away a solid $12.80 winner by playing $24 worth of losing exactas!...........I speak from experience! ;)

1 win bet can really get you rolling.

We all want the big hit but we need the staple to form a financial foundation.

So tru.......so tru

[Valuist]

I know a guy who's a very good handicapper but absolutely terrible bettor. I've seen him come up with plenty of 8-1, 10-1 shots he has been waiting for to run back. Does he bet them to win? No, he invariably tries to crush the exacta with one ticket, almost always having the heavy chalk in the second slot. At least now he has learned to hedge by playing at least a small ticket the other way. But he just can't bring himself to bet to win. Stubbornness doesn't work too well at the track.

[bisket]

i get more of my winnings from betting exacta's and trifecta's, but i always have a win bet in a race. the only time i don't is when i think the heavy fav is a mortal lock, and then its usually a straight tri. the other reason i bet to win in races is because if i don't bet like this; i find my self handicapping to just figure WHICH HORSES HAVE A CHANCE OF WINNING. when handicapping you have to try and decide WHO'S GONNA WIN. i tend to get a little lazy if i don't handicap to win bet.

[illinoisbred]

i get more of my winnings from betting exacta's and trifecta's, but i always have a win bet in a race. the only time i don't is when i think the heavy fav is a mortal lock, and then its usually a straight tri. the other reason i bet to win in races is because if i don't bet like this; i find my self handicapping to just figure WHICH HORSES HAVE A CHANCE OF WINNING. when handicapping you have to try and decide WHO'S GONNA WIN. i tend to get a little lazy if i don't handicap to win bet.
Couldn't agree more!

[bisket]

yes what valu says is spot on. knowing how to bet your picks is as important as knowing who's gonna win.

[ryesteve]

Ok, I'm going to disagree. Compounding your edge by betting an exacta can take a negative expectation win bet and turn it into a positive expectation exacta bet. Let's say I have a set of criteria that identifies horses that produce a -5% ROI in the win slot. But, if I bet this horse in an exacta with 2-3 horses that exhibit another set of criteria, these exacta bets might return +10%.

Now, if I bet this race and my top horse wins, but I don't get the exacta, am I supposed to feel bad that I passed up a negative expectation bet that happened to win this time??

This isn't to say that the OTB whiners cited in the original post are operating at that level of sophistication, I'm just pointing out that having the "winner" but not betting it to win doesn't necessarily mean you bet the race incorrectly.

[Imriledup]

People don't want money, they want hero status. Heroes don't bet win.


I know, its silly, but more horseplayers are lifetime losers anyway, why not have that one shining moment you can tell your grandkids about?

[Fingal]

In the words of Herm Edwards-

" YOU PLAY TO WIN THE GAME "

Prices are nice, but you have to win the race first.

[JimG]

I was at an OTB today and I never heard so many guys complain how they had the winner, but missed the exacta or missed the trifecta.

If you can pick winners and get value........BET SOMETHING TO WIN !

Play exotics too if you have the bankroll, but it hurts to throw away a solid $12.80 winner by playing $24 worth of losing exactas!...........I speak from experience! ;)

I agree, however many guys you hear boasting at an otb like that really played multiple horses on top in exotics "hoping" to get lucky.

[wisconsin]

It's funny, but we've all probably been there. You know, spend $48 on a kinky tri wheel or $24 in exacta's, but hey, bet $20 on horses nose? No way, man. You do learn after awhile.

[dav4463]

I don't mind missing a trifecta or exacta if I am keying a 2-1 shot on top, but if I have a 12-1 shot that wins and I didn't bet him to win.....that's the one that makes you feel sick!

[bisket]

if your betting a 48$ tri wheel or a 25$ exacta betting 1 or 2$ tickets thats a waste of money and time. trying to buy a race will only put you in the negative. if i have a hard time narrowing down my ticket its time to a) skip the race or b) only play a simple win bet or exacta box with my best guess. sometimes you just take your best guess and live with it. thats why its gambling. you can't win'em all. if you can't handle losing this isn't the game for you.

[bisket]

12-1 is a definate 10-20$ win bet. then narrow your exotics to a reasonable amount. 6 ticket max for tri's and 2 ticket max for exacta. only go past this if if you have two longshots that you like in the exotic. then maybe go for a bigger amount, but these situations are few and far between. i have found by following this method with my bets i have a much bigger probability to staying in the black. trust your judgement and live with losing sometimes. its part of the game. you'll be playing with the publics money and not yours.

[Space Monkey]

I don't mind missing a trifecta or exacta if I am keying a 2-1 shot on top, but if I have a 12-1 shot that wins and I didn't bet him to win.....that's the one that makes you feel sick!

So true. I used to have a rule that I would always make a win bet on a horse if he is 6-1 or higher. Now I'm dropping that down to 4-1. Lower Win takeout and a more conservative, higher hit ratio goal are my reasons.

[WinterTriangle]

It's funny, but we've all probably been there. You know, spend $48 on a kinky tri wheel or $24 in exacta's, but hey, bet $20 on horses nose? No way, man. You do learn after awhile.

I'm grateful for this topic.

Sounds like me. Actually, another horseplayer has talked this out with me this week. I can often identify the horses, but am drawn to exotics then always put the horses in the wrong order, and often lose the win wager I *could have had* if I hadn't spent the $ on an exotic.

Really, thank you. :)

[dav4463]

I remember keying three horses on top of an exacta at Lone Star once and one of my horses went off at better than 30-1. The horse won. I got nothing. That's when I changed my betting style!

[racingplanet]

If you spot a horse that you think should be fav but isnt, then back it to win regardless of the price. Its a simple rule and you wont get many in a week let alone a day, but its a great way of making value bets.

http://mboard.infopop.cc/eve/forums?a=corfrm&cf=1236084792

GOOD LUCK

[fmolf]

I always bet to win if i feel the horse is overlaid,going as low as 8/5 if i think he should be even money.then i play no more than 3 horses underneath in the exactas.Any more than that and your wasting money skip the exactas if you have no strong opinion.In the long run i have found that if i double my exacta bets on my top two place horses my roi is better than playing 4 horses for less money underneath.

[dav4463]

[QUOTE=racingplanet]If you spot a horse that you think should be fav but isnt, then back it to win regardless of the price. Its a simple rule and you wont get many in a week let alone a day, but its a great way of making value bets.

http://mboard.infopop.cc/eve/forums?a=corfrm&cf=1236084792

GOOD LUCK[/QUOTE/

That is an excellent way to look at it. Thanks.

[BUD]

I was at an OTB today and I never heard so many guys complain how they had the winner, but missed the exacta or missed the trifecta.

If you can pick winners and get value........BET SOMETHING TO WIN !

Play exotics too if you have the bankroll, but it hurts to throw away a solid $12.80 winner by playing $24 worth of losing exactas!...........I speak from experience! ;)
Beside for being a great pitcher-the post is 100%Truth

[bobbyt62]

i've been at the horses for 29 years now, and been through my exotic stage. became a win only type in the mid 80's and did well (not a living, just profitable) for a long time. my problem (and ?? temporary ?? retirment) is the result of not knowing what you're going to get, in terms of win odds. i have posted about this in another thread.

[dav4463]

Beside for being a great pitcher-the post is 100%Truth


A little off topic, but I once used the line that I was the MLB pitcher Dave Stewart to pick up a girl. She was dumb enough to believe me! Yes, she was blonde and did not realize the pitcher was black and I was white. She just saw my name on TV and I convinced her it was me. I used my Driver's License to convince her!......Man, she was dumb! :lol:

[Fastracehorse]

Ok, I'm going to disagree. Compounding your edge by betting an exacta can take a negative expectation win bet and turn it into a positive expectation exacta bet. Let's say I have a set of criteria that identifies horses that produce a -5% ROI in the win slot. But, if I bet this horse in an exacta with 2-3 horses that exhibit another set of criteria, these exacta bets might return +10%.

Now, if I bet this race and my top horse wins, but I don't get the exacta, am I supposed to feel bad that I passed up a negative expectation bet that happened to win this time??

This isn't to say that the OTB whiners cited in the original post are operating at that level of sophistication, I'm just pointing out that having the "winner" but not betting it to win doesn't necessarily mean you bet the race incorrectly.

....that a 6-1 that you think would win, and you are a sharp 'capper, would lead to a + expectation bet.


fffastt

[bisket]

i only bet to win if i can make money by placing the wager. at least 3-1 odds

[ryesteve]

....that a 6-1 that you think would win, and you are a sharp 'capper, would lead to a + expectation bet.In the context of figuring out whether it is or not, the phrase "that you think would win", doesn't really have any meaning. It's "what's his probability of winning". If I think it's 14% or less, I wouldn't expect to make money on win bets, but that doesn't mean there aren't positive expectation exacta bets that use this horse on top.