Spa a trainer's game - not a speed game on the main.

[Fastracehorse]

A multitude of main track pace collapses, even b4 the top of the stretch, have changed this handicapper's strategy - comparatively speaking of course.

Watching the dirt races is weird. Too many horses vieing for the lead, and in many races, one horse shakes loose form the duel but is easily engulfed by predatory stretch runners, often bombs.

Late runners are more formidable than speed at the Spa. Speed can hold, but it has to be MUCHTHEBEST types.

U handicap a 6 1/2 furlong dirt race and you wonder if the horse can get the distance! Charlton Baker prepped a horse 1 mile, b4 one of these sprints, and it worked, weird again.

Many smaller barns have made a splash at the meet. Linda Rice, not a small barn, has been incredible, mostly on the lawn though. Watch Juan and Paulina Ortiz, William Badgett, James Ferraro, and those Arab guys, they are kicking again after only 1 win I believe at the Belmont meet.

Anyways, see what tomorrow brings.

fffastt

[the little guy]

Telling people to watch out for Jimmy Ferraro, right after he had two big price winners, is like warning people about a tornado a day after it flattened their house.

[rokitman]

He listed Ferraro as one of the small barns that "have made a splash at the meet." He didn't say anything that could be even remotely interpreted as "watch out for Ferraro."

[Bison]

Late runners are more formidable than speed at the Spa. Speed can hold, but it has to be MUCHTHEBEST types.
fffastt


I'll continue to bet the early leaders. It's been profitable for me at Saratoga.
First call leaders at that track are very profitable in all sprint races.

[Tom Barrister]

When was Saratoga NOT a trainer's track?

[46zilzal]

Speed at the SPA is much better than at Belmont. Always has been, and unless they radically resurface (due to energy distribution requirements) it should remain that way

[JustRalph]

I show it hugely speed tiring in sprints and speed favoring in routes

[classhandicapper]

I have a theory that "figures" of all types are less effective at this time of year (at least in NY).

All figure makers remember the days when making speed and pace figures for turf races was somewhere between difficult and impossible. There were typically only a few turf races on any given card with which to estimate the track speed, a lot of slow paces to complicate the analysis, sometimes 2 different turf courses at the same track, rails up, rails down etc...

These days it's a "little" easier (but still difficult) because they card so many more turf races on the average day . However, that automatically means they card fewer dirt races. So I think making accurate track variants for dirt races is more complex at this time of year.

I think at this time of year the "error rate" goes up for all kinds of figures.

[Fastracehorse]

More of the same today.

A L. Rice horse opened up at 8:5 on the main, probably because she was the only speed - she stopped.

Michael Ferraro today in the 1st. A real 'pot pourri' of trainers today.

fffastt