No Value

[Pell Mell]

There has been a lot of discussion concerning how to get value, vulnerable favorites and such.
First of all, I may be wrong about this, but if memory serves me correctly, which may be doubtful at my age, 30% was a pretty high winning % for favorites. I distinctly remember playing many different meets where fav. only won at a 20-22% clip. In checking stats I see many tracks today where the winning % is approaching 40%.
I know that many attribute this to more info available, computers, etc. This may all be true but I have a different take on a lot of it.
One can easily see that at most tracks there are 2-3 or even more trainers that win at outrageous rates. Trainers like Hollendorfer, Autry, Lake, etc. There are many of them and they especially dominate the smaller tracks. I see trainer-jock combos winning at 40% rates and higher.
I don't ever remember seeing this stuff 40-50 yrs ago.:confused:
I believe one of the big reasons for these high win percentages is the fact that in a lot of places, I don't know how many but would love for someone to give me a list, the "Jail House" rule was done away with.
If you will take note one can see that these high % trainers are constantly dropping horses out of the clouds. They think nothing of claiming a horse for 20 grand and a week later dropping it in for 5 g's.
The rule was initially in place to protect trainers that had worked hard to get a horse in shape. If the trainer had a horse in shape and dropped it in class and it was claimed, the new owner had to enter it for 25% more than it was claimed for until a 30 day waiting period was up. The horse during that time was said to be in jail.
The small time trainers today seem to be reluctant to drop their horses in class to get a win because these top trainers gobble up everything in sight. For whatever financial reasons, they seem to have no problem entering these horses next week for 1/2 or less of what they paid. Seems like the little guy has no chance except in rare instances.
At any rate, this is just one of my pet peeves and I just wanted to vent.
PS- Does anyone actually know why the rule was done away with in so many places? And how do I find out where it is still in effect?

[ryesteve]

If you will take note one can see that these high % trainers are constantly dropping horses out of the clouds. They think nothing of claiming a horse for 20 grand and a week later dropping it in for 5 g's.I'd have to ask why. Obviously someone's going to grab that horse for 5k, so they're not making any money with this kind of maneuvering. What's the purpose?

[Pell Mell]

I'd have to ask why. Obviously some one's going to grab that horse for 5k, so they're not making any money with this kind of maneuvering. What's the purpose?

Most of the time nobody takes them. Maybe they don't want to claim from one another or there is an unwritten agreement or some other nefarious reason.:bang:

[cj]

Shrinking field size has certainly contributed to rising win percentages of favorites.

[ryesteve]

Most of the time nobody takes them. Maybe they don't want to claim from one another or there is an unwritten agreement or some other nefarious reason.:bang:I have a hard time believing this. You're basically saying that the top trainers are allowed to screw over the other trainers, and the unwritten rule is that everyone else is supposed to let them do it. I'm not buying it. I'd need to see a list of horses dropping 75% off a claim without anyone taking them, before I'll believe this.

[formula_2002]

TO ALL, FYI

I HAVE A BOOK THAT GOES BACK TO THE MID 1930’S AND THE GUY IS SAYING THAT FAVORITES WIN ABOUT 30% . I ALSO HAVE SOME 1970 BOOKS WHERE THEY TALK ABOUT 33% WINNING FAVORITES.

IN A RECENT DATA BASE OF 6457 FAVORITES, THEY WON 36% OF THE TIME, AVE ODDS =1.63-1, ACTUAL WINS / EXPECTED WINS=.86

WHEN FIELD SIZE <8;
AVE ODDS=1.37-1, A/E=.87, FAV WON 46%

WHEN FIELD SIZE =8
AVE ODDS=1.66-1, A/E .85, FAV WON 35%

WHEN FIELD SIZE>8
AVE ODDS=1.88-1, A/E .84, FAV WON 38%

[Robert Goren]

Shrinking field size has certainly contributed to rising win percentages of favorites.:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[Pell Mell]

I have a hard time believing this. You're basically saying that the top trainers are allowed to screw over the other trainers, and the unwritten rule is that everyone else is supposed to let them do it. I'm not buying it. I'd need to see a list of horses dropping 75% off a claim without anyone taking them, before I'll believe this.

You think what you want and I'll think what I want.

I remember asking an owner friend of mine why he wouldn't consider claiming a horse that was taking a big drop. His answer;" That's Lassiter's horse and if I claimed it he'd claim every damn horse I enter".

[ryesteve]

You think what you want and I'll think what I want.This kind of thing doesn't require a debate. It either happens, or it doesn't. Well, I guess if it doesn't happen, you're entitled to keep thinking it does anyway, but I don't see the point...

[castaway01]

There has been a lot of discussion concerning how to get value, vulnerable favorites and such.
First of all, I may be wrong about this, but if memory serves me correctly, which may be doubtful at my age, 30% was a pretty high winning % for favorites. I distinctly remember playing many different meets where fav. only won at a 20-22% clip. In checking stats I see many tracks today where the winning % is approaching 40%.
I know that many attribute this to more info available, computers, etc. This may all be true but I have a different take on a lot of it.
One can easily see that at most tracks there are 2-3 or even more trainers that win at outrageous rates. Trainers like Hollendorfer, Autry, Lake, etc. There are many of them and they especially dominate the smaller tracks. I see trainer-jock combos winning at 40% rates and higher.
I don't ever remember seeing this stuff 40-50 yrs ago.:confused:
I believe one of the big reasons for these high win percentages is the fact that in a lot of places, I don't know how many but would love for someone to give me a list, the "Jail House" rule was done away with.
If you will take note one can see that these high % trainers are constantly dropping horses out of the clouds. They think nothing of claiming a horse for 20 grand and a week later dropping it in for 5 g's.
The rule was initially in place to protect trainers that had worked hard to get a horse in shape. If the trainer had a horse in shape and dropped it in class and it was claimed, the new owner had to enter it for 25% more than it was claimed for until a 30 day waiting period was up. The horse during that time was said to be in jail.
The small time trainers today seem to be reluctant to drop their horses in class to get a win because these top trainers gobble up everything in sight. For whatever financial reasons, they seem to have no problem entering these horses next week for 1/2 or less of what they paid. Seems like the little guy has no chance except in rare instances.
At any rate, this is just one of my pet peeves and I just wanted to vent.
PS- Does anyone actually know why the rule was done away with in so many places? And how do I find out where it is still in effect?

What you "remember" is simply not true---favorites won 30% or more of the time 75 years ago. They do win more now because fields are smaller (as CJ said).

[Black Ruby]

weren't smaller fields also supposed to be the reason for repeal of the Jailhouse rules? They did away with it to try and increase field sizes.

[bisket]

the idea is that favs lose 60-70% of the time. one of the best handicapping tools that you want to aquire is to know when the fav is vulnerable and when he's not. when you can aquire this simple judgement call and get it right you've opened yourself to always playing the game with the public's money.

[CBedo]

You think what you want and I'll think what I want.

I remember asking an owner friend of mine why he wouldn't consider claiming a horse that was taking a big drop. His answer;" That's Lassiter's horse and if I claimed it he'd claim every damn horse I enter".Wouldn't that suggest the strategy of claiming one of his horses, and then running your own horses above their actual value since "he'd claim every damn horse I enter?"

:lol:

[Java Gold@TFT]

Quote from Jay Cronley, not me"

Handicappers known as value hunters don't like me so much. A value hunter would rather run fourth on a 20-1 shot than win by 10 on an even-money charge. I have written that all winners have value. So how can value hunters afford to carry their message from one year to the next? They're on TV and get paid no matter who wins. Most critical messages from horse players have a way with words if not always logic.

[Overlay]

Quote from Jay Cronley, not me:

"A value hunter would rather run fourth on a 20-1 shot than win by 10 on an even-money charge."

I'd correct that to, "A value hunter would rather win less often with horses that pay enough when they do win to make an overall profit, than win more often with horses that don't pay enough to compensate for the losses from the times when they don't win."

[proximity]

Most of the time nobody takes them. Maybe they don't want to claim from one another or there is an unwritten agreement or some other nefarious reason.:bang:

many of these big super-trainer drops will (or figure to) win so you'll lose the condition and will be forced to run the horse in a tougher spot regardless of what the claiming price of the next race is.

and of course unless you're using super-trainer juice, the horse will almost definitely perform worse for you.....

[raybo]

All I have to say is:

If you're going to bet favorites, on win tickets, and you're going to do it more than rarely, you'd better be getting them cheap.

Unless you can win over 40% of the races you bet favorites in, well, I don't need to tell you what your avg. post time odds needs to be. There aren't many favorites that go off at those odds.

[fmolf]

usually a trainer will drop off the claim to a level where if he does win and the horse is claimed the combination of the winners share of the purse and the claiming price will give him a small short term profit.

I think it may have been Quinn or Quirin who said "
you know you are a good handicapper when you can still make money in races with low priced favorites"....I will use them in exactas on top with some longer priced horses who figure for me qand are offering overlaid payouts in the exacta pools.Sometime i will bet a very solid 7/5 shot who I figure should be even money.