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View Full Version : Anyone get money on Telling?


jognlope
08-16-2009, 09:55 PM
In yesterday's Sword Dancer at Spa, 10 cent super paid $3,900.

Odds were 39/1.

hbeck
08-16-2009, 10:09 PM
Yes, (not me)

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,53896,53925#msg-53925

jognlope
08-16-2009, 10:26 PM
Haha! I know that one hurt.

Murph
08-16-2009, 11:37 PM
Haha! I know that one hurt.So you just want to make sport of folks that lost money on this miserable excuse for a G1 contest? Telling was the poorest rated runner in the field, no matter who's ratings were used. A very high risk stab for anyone who used him in the win spot.

cmoore
08-17-2009, 12:25 AM
So you just want to make sport of folks that lost money on this miserable excuse for a G1 contest? Telling was the poorest rated runner in the field, no matter who's ratings were used. A very high risk stab for anyone who used him in the win spot.

I missed the race. But went back and looked over my procaps software..Telling was ranked number one in 9 of 20 categories..:eek:

Murph
08-17-2009, 12:51 AM
I missed the race. But went back and looked over my procaps software..Telling was ranked number one in 9 of 20 categories..:eek:Indeed!?! Yet that was not enough to make him a top rated choice in this field. I understand that stakes racing is about moving up in class but this one was a real stinker in my book. I didnt bet the race and I am certainly not amused with the result. Thanks for the input, Cliff.

ArlJim78
08-17-2009, 12:53 AM
I bet Telling to win. my own ratings had flagged him, and the more I looked at the PP's, the more I liked.

WinterTriangle
08-17-2009, 01:23 AM
Telling was the poorest rated runner in the field, no matter who's ratings were used.

I posted my pick for the win on another forum, so it's in writing. :)

I picked Telling to win.

I was laughed at and told to save my money after I posted.

If you look at his stats on the broodmare side, they are spectacular on turf at this distance...about 3 times higher than every other horse in that race. That's why I picked him, it jumped out at me.

Record is 17-5-4-4 record, he only finished off the board 4 times in his life.

WinterTriangle
08-17-2009, 01:35 AM
Oh forgot to say that when a horse is scratched out of a race, and entered in another right away, that always puts my antlers up. finding a better spot is often indicative of a possible win? that's been my experience, keeping track of scratches religiously for a while?

Anhyone else have this as an "angle"? Most recent I can think of is I saw Linda Rice had scratched Ahvee's Destiny, then showed up shortly in the Finney Stakes at Saratoga and won. I think the odds were around 4-1.

Murph
08-17-2009, 01:35 AM
I bet Telling to win. my own ratings had flagged him, and the more I looked at the PP's, the more I liked.Im happy for your play, Jim but there is not much to like about his last 10 races. He hadnt attended the pace well enough in his races this year to keep from having to circle the field to find room. He failed 3 back at odds on in a minor stakes. He hadnt won in more than 18 months. I don't see anything there that could put someone on this horse to win a major G1 stakes race.

Maybe I'm going blind.

keilan
08-17-2009, 02:00 AM
Anyone that boasts after hitting Telling should also post their ticket. I have trouble believing someone here played this horse with confidence ie $$$

I think Telling likes a harder turf surface but that win moved him forward more than was likely.

To triangle, so you played him in a contest but show us where you actually cashed a ticket. And Jim78 should probably toss his program in the trash if his program flag him but he continues w/ the more I looked at the PP's, the more I liked.. Uh Jim the PP's didn't show this horse in a positive light.

Finally triangle talks about the horse scratching to run in a G1 -- that's right scratched out of another race to run a G1. This has to be a Boxy angle :lol:

thanx for laughs guys keep em coming!!!

Murph
08-17-2009, 02:01 AM
Record is 17-5-4-4 record, he only finished off the board 4 times in his life.Twice in his past 3 races makes 3 times off this year. 1 win on turf and zero at the distance in 3 tries does not give me any confidence in the broodmare stats. I suppose I am old fashioned expecting G1 winners to actually be winners before the fact.

RockHardTen1985
08-17-2009, 02:01 AM
Im happy for your play, Jim but there is not much to like about his last 10 races. He hadnt attended the pace well enough in his races this year to keep from having to circle the field to find room. He failed 3 back at odds on in a minor stakes. He hadnt won in more than 18 months. I don't see anything there that could put someone on this horse to win a major G1 stakes race.

Maybe I'm going blind.



Your wrong, he ran well at AP last time. Just as well came back to validate the race in a big way. I'm sure Jim saw that.

Murph
08-17-2009, 02:24 AM
Your wrong, Well of course I am! You and Jim and jognlope being on that winner proves it.

jognlope
08-17-2009, 02:37 AM
I didn't bet him. The Spa hates me, never gives me one dime. I'm a Beulah Park kinda girl.

WinterTriangle
08-17-2009, 03:21 AM
that's right scratched out of another race to run a G1. This has to be a Boxy angle :lol:

Um, with your philosophy, no horse would ever win their *first* G1. To win, you have to actually enter. ;)

Conversely, G1 winners often finish up the track in G1 races.



The horse was, as the trainer said, in deep, but they didn't think it was impossible. They paid their $$ to enter, and had every right to run.
It sounds like some of you think Telling shouldn't have been allowed in?



Sara was fun on Saturday......Are you guys gonna bust on these, too? (Better question.......did you play them? Because, if you want to make $50+ on a horse, you gotta have either a hunch or an angle, otherwise, they wouldn't pay so well. :) )

Saratoga:
Sean Avery/Saratoga Lightning: $370.55 EX
Heavenly Blaze ($51.50) Win
Prince Dubai ($57.50) win
Telling ($68.00) win

Mnth:
Two Notch Road $216.40 Win

I thought this is what makes racing exciting?

Judicious Player
08-17-2009, 04:40 AM
Winter Triangle,

Yes, that does make racing fun.

It is always best to price shop and find a reason -- if there is one -- to bet a price horse.

And, yes, angles catch the prices, traditional handicapping does not.

If you look closely, Telling had just made up monster ground in his last race, closing wildly into a slow pace (49.9 / 113.9) and running wide to boot. That is ALWAYS a wake-up call for a turf runner.

But, hey, what I do I know, I just use the best data in the business, HTR. No HTR does not pick your winners, but it provides superior data.

That said, I screwed up the race -- I put Telling in the 2 and 3 hole in the trifecta (not on top), as I thought the horse would close like a rocket and hit the board, but not win. Shit.

In any event, try to find reasons to bet price horses, and try to find reasons not to bet favorites or the day's best lock. "Logical plays" never land you in the IRS window.

JustRalph
08-17-2009, 08:15 AM
I didn't bet him. The Spa hates me, never gives me one dime. I'm a Beulah Park kinda girl.


Tight jeans and a foul mouth?
:lol: :lol:

Tom
08-17-2009, 09:24 AM
I did not like Grand C at all, and I didn't like the 5 too much, so I thought there might be an upset. I looked at Telling - he had a proven speed fig pattern, circling back with a good back number, plus a hot last fraction last out, but ultimately, I threw him out on class. I thought the G3 was not enough with these. I ended up on BTN but got shut out. Woulda coulda shouda.

Tom
08-17-2009, 09:48 AM
Well, using Beyers, that is.
I just looked at CJ's free figs for that race that I did not have Saturday.

I would have thrown him out a lot quicker. :blush:

cj's dad
08-17-2009, 10:22 AM
Actually Tom, I just looked at the kids #'s and I believe it was 7 and 9 races back which were both within a 1/2 f. of Saturdays distance, there was notable overall figure improvement from the 9th back to 7th race back. The speed figure he achieved 7 races back put him in with most here. certainly the #'s 6-8-10.

Wish I would have seen this at the time !! Would have been worth a few $$ at 30+/1

ArlJim78
08-17-2009, 10:33 AM
I did not like Grand C at all, and I didn't like the 5 too much, so I thought there might be an upset. I looked at Telling - he had a proven speed fig pattern, circling back with a good back number, plus a hot last fraction last out, but ultimately, I threw him out on class. I thought the G3 was not enough with these. I ended up on BTN but got shut out. Woulda coulda shouda.
I know what you mean about the class aspect, but at 12 furlongs but there isn't much in the way of proven class in the US since there are so few races going long.

Grits
08-17-2009, 10:50 AM
Sorry, gentlemen, women can be foolish and clueless all at the same time I guess. I bet Telling--I bet him across the board, not just the win spot. I think of this as saving.

I bet Quijano to win only--that one gave it up at the top of the stretch. So much for my money on that one.

I also boxed Telling, Quijano, and Lauro for the exacta. As we know, front runners have been known to get a mile and a half on the front end. Zito's DaTara came to mind. Lauro didn't get it.

I threw out Grand Couturier altogether. The horse had been OTM in his last three races, including the BC Turf. For some reason, that sorta concerned me. Maybe its just me in my ignorance, but I have a habit of going back in running lines--way back if necessary, particularly if I think one's improving. I do this after I've read comments like Telling's last three races. (5th of 12, Best stride LATE.) (6th of 10, EVENLY; wide stretch.) (2nd of 7, RALLIED; up for place.)

In further confusion, I look at raw times, (I know, how stupid of me) along with speed figures. With the above three finishing comments read, and his October G3 Sycamore at Keeneland, where he finished 3rd, one length back in 2:30.4 I simply got the notion, somehow, that he could do this, or do part of it. That he'd come flying late.

The four horses making up the superfecta, the winner and the fourth place finisher, both, came out of the Arlington Handicap. True it was a Grade 3, but horses do, as someone has pointed out, move up in company everyday.

All of these things, along with the fact, if one also knows a little bit about Midwest racing, instead of focusing all their energy on New York racing all of the time, and relying on their software, one knows Steve Hobby ain't no slouch.

Maybe it comes down to the "blind squirrel" thing, but I've hit some fine priced horses thinking outside the box. The box, most often, being New York. This being true of the Saratoga meet in general.

MY GROSS ERROR--underestimating the "old man." He is the runningest fella I've ever seen. What a racehorse!!!

Produce my ticket for those inclined to not believe me? I don't think so. Not likely.

Redboarding? I could give a damn; given Keilan's statements.

Its a horse race. At Saratoga, in particular, one can anticipate the unexpected to occur.

Like I've stated, I don't do this for a living, its entertainment. And I love it. I don't have to be correct as often as others. And I don't plan to argue further about Telling's win. Someone asked. And I replied. EOC.

11cashcall
08-17-2009, 11:37 AM
Yes, (not me)

http://www.thorograph.com/phorum/read.php?1,53896,53925#msg-53925

TG had him 7th best in the field.The tip off was Steve Hobby shipping in!

Next time.

ryesteve
08-17-2009, 11:48 AM
TG had him 7th best in the field.The tip off was Steve Hobby shipping in!Yeah, that -0.71 ROI he has when shipping is awesome :rolleyes:

keilan
08-17-2009, 12:46 PM
Actually Tom, I just looked at the and I believe it was 7 and 9 races back which were both within a 1/2 f. of Saturdays distance, there was notable overall figure improvement from the 9th back to 7th race back. The speed figure he achieved 7 races back put him in with most here. certainly the #'s 6-8-10.

Wish I would have seen this at the time !! Would have been worth a few $$ at 30+/1


The highest figure given to Telling came 7 races back at Kee (106). I think most of us that use his numbers would agree that Kee numbers can on occasion be overstated. In addition I always look at the way the number is earned, a fast or slow paced raced can have a significant effect on the power number (overall figure number).

Considering Telling's running style and lack of early estimated pace combined with his 0 fer 5 in G3 races based on his last nine starts doesn't make him worthy for a serious wager imho.

I suppose most of us can find something in a winner after the fact but really who here was seriously betting this horse w/ real money?

ddog
08-17-2009, 02:46 PM
Now that lack of estimated pace is interesting,, I thought there was a good chance for a strong pace given the foreign horse(6) as well as the 3-8-10 in the race and played a small 7-2 on the board for the tri.
Thought BTN was over the hill, costly mistake.

Close , but NO cash.

I thought and still do that the AP race both of those came from was LIVE.

and 0 - fer is JUST the time for a serious wager, why always be late to the party?

:)

ddog
08-17-2009, 02:49 PM
Yeah, that -0.71 ROI he has when shipping is awesome :rolleyes:


TOO OBVIOUS!

he did SHIP DIDN'T he!!

:bang:

ddog
08-17-2009, 02:52 PM
I know what you mean about the class aspect, but at 12 furlongs but there isn't much in the way of proven class in the US since there are so few races going long.


there isn't much in the way of proven class in turf anymore here at all.

Cat Thief
08-17-2009, 06:12 PM
Logical plays sure don't land you in the iRS window. You have to furrow out all those unknowns and keep track of the odds.

dansan
08-17-2009, 06:30 PM
boxed 4 horses genteman chester lauro better talked now telling thre the 9 horse out brass hat nailed exact $644.00 dont know why i didnt play suoer because it was super box 5 for a dime 12.00 usually do but ran out of time barely got the bet in!

cj's dad
08-17-2009, 06:42 PM
The highest figure given to Telling came 7 races back at Kee (106). I think most of us that use his numbers would agree that Kee numbers can on occasion be overstated. In addition I always look at the way the number is earned, a fast or slow paced raced can have a significant effect on the power number (overall figure number).

Considering Telling's running style and lack of early estimated pace combined with his 0 fer 5 in G3 races based on his last nine starts doesn't make him worthy for a serious wager imho.

I suppose most of us can find something in a winner after the fact but really who here was seriously betting this horse w/ real money?

So, both of us are geniuses - neither had the winner! go figure !!

dansan
08-17-2009, 06:44 PM
had exacta the winner was in there :)

dansan
08-17-2009, 06:50 PM
I kick butt on the lawn

cj's dad
08-17-2009, 06:53 PM
had exacta the winner was in there :)

Pretty obvious don't you think ?!?

dansan
08-17-2009, 06:58 PM
seems like most big payoffs i been getting are on the grass even at delmar caught the last race the 10 malibu win 33-1 only reason i bet it was comment in drf said dont sell this outfit short think im going to only play lawn at delmar from here on out dirt kills me

cj
08-17-2009, 07:00 PM
I considered him, didn't play him.

keilan
08-17-2009, 08:30 PM
I considered him, didn't play him.


Guys I'm just having some fun. I actually bet the horse $1000.00 across and keyed in $10 tri and $5 supers.

dansan
08-17-2009, 09:39 PM
that wps bet was stupid lol :D should of had all on the nose

keilan
08-17-2009, 10:38 PM
Yeah but putting it all to win would have diluted the odds plus I kinda treated it like a saver. The tri's and supers more than made up for what I left on the table no?

toodles :jump:

Robert Fischer
08-17-2009, 11:07 PM
whats hard(not really but it's slightly complicated) is objectively looking back at the race.

A horse like Telling was not a smart choice for win regardless of the outcome.

The race worked out that there were some tosses that would need a miracle to win (Brass Hat, Rising Moon, Lauro). Then there was the horse prepping for the marathon Americain and it was going to be moderately-heavily overbet and had little chance of winning so he was a must-toss for anyone but the birthday number players.

So now you have 6 horses. Of those 6 you could look a number of ways
worst value = better talk now, quijano
highest win probability = grand couturier, musketier

looking at the prices, nobody was really a good deal. Couturier and Musketier especially being the bigger probability horses where very dull in price. This made the game unplayable for a small conservative, efficient player.


However for the gambler! -- Telling and Gentleman Chester were at least paying prices, but they were also low probability horses.

if you wanted to gamble and had a lot of bankroll to waste, you would key Telling and Chester together in trifectas so that these 2 would be in each "leg" with the other 4 of6 filling in the rest
AB x CDEF x CDEF = 24 , each way = $72
you would play Telling and Chester in the Doubles and pick3s
and key the two price horses top and bottom of the other 4 non-tosses.

None of this took a tremendous amount of skill really it was more a matter of making an accurate assesment of the horses and deciding if you want to gamble with a lot of combinations or pass.

The most skill probably involved Rising Moon. After he was urged wide in the Suburban vs a perfect trip horse, and has been a prospect for Dutrow for some time, he could easily be a red herring to good handicappers(although the dull ones would likely miss him altogether.). However watching his last 2 races carefully would reveal his "achilles heal" that has prevented him from having a chance. Americain was somewhat of an advanced toss as well, but picturing the trip he was extremely likely to get(and did) was pretty basic to anyone who knows the circuit.


so to wrap this up --> unless Castellano/jockeyagent/trainer was riding in the back of your cab talking on the phone about how this new change of tactics was going to be the difference with Telling , betting on him was probably a longterm losing move:p, and i give you no credit lol, although he figured well enough to fit in any gambler's shotgun/spread group after tosses

theguarantee
08-17-2009, 11:08 PM
had the dollar exacta. played the 7 on top of GC, the 3 and BTN. Had singled BTN in doubles, but liked Telling for the same reasons that were already posted in here. Realized it was a bit of a longshot, but I really began to like the horse the more I looked, in large part because none of the other horses seemed like standouts. Either they had serious question marks or didn't look in form...Telling seemed to have some upside on the turf conditions and seemed as likely as any of the non-GC and BTN horses to like the distance.

Obviously there was a lot of luck and a plus plus trip didn't hurt, but I do think there was an angle there, many people wouldn't have seen it as enough, but not being much of a figure player I spent three bucks on it.

Have the OTB picture on my phone and on my blog, though I don't think anyone is doubting the dollar exacta ticket haha.

Grits
08-18-2009, 12:01 AM
Yeah but putting it all to win would have diluted the odds plus I kinda treated it like a saver. The tri's and supers more than made up for what I left on the table no?

toodles :jump:

Are you a grown man, simply trying for cute?

Why do you continue with insults?

WinterTriangle
08-18-2009, 02:13 AM
Talk about looking back, I just checked Breeding Winners, they had him in the top 3 to win....their reports are pedigree/trainer centered.

So, for whatever reason, it appears Telling was a live longshot in more than one source. Eh, it's always that way, just like Mine That Bird was touted by a few handicappers that most of us didn't notice until after the KY Derby was run. :)

dansan
08-18-2009, 08:21 PM
did they have the bomb that came in at monmouth sat also two notch rd paid $216 i bet someone had him and i bet it was a gambler not handicapper ;) :eek:

Overlay
08-22-2009, 02:24 AM
It is always best to price shop and find a reason -- if there is one -- to bet a price horse.

And, yes, angles catch the prices, traditional handicapping does not.

In any event, try to find reasons to bet price horses, and try to find reasons not to bet favorites or the day's best lock. "Logical plays" never land you in the IRS window.

I agree with your point, but would only add that "traditional" (i.e., "non-angle") handicapping can highlight those price horses, too, as long as the race is viewed in terms of assessing the winning probability of each entrant in comparison to its odds, rather than with the goal of narrowing the field down to one selection by finding reasons to completely eliminate every other horse from all consideration for a wager.