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View Full Version : bisket's plays at sar 8/16


bisket
08-16-2009, 12:39 AM
somethings may change at racetime, but these are my thoughts going into the day. the changes will be minimal, but i'll decide exactly how i'll play my tickets about 15 minutes prior to the race. it seems speed was holding yesterday as a horse on the lead or chasing it won or finished in the money each race at saratoga on the dirt. the turf seemed to play a little more fair though.
race 1
this one looks pretty simple to read (sometimes that worries me). if the :8: jets tradition gets the lead it seems she wins. she seems to run 22 and change for his 1st 1/4 and that looks to get her into at least the 3 path going into the turn and the lead. in her last i really liked the horse that finished a 1/2 length behind her. so imop it was a strong win. the other in here that like is the :2: r betty graybull. it apears a pace of 22 and change sets her up for her best finishes. we'll box these two 1 and 2 in either a tri or exacta. if they are at short odds it may end up being a straight play. we'll see come race time, but right now thats the way it apears at this time. well fill out the tri tomorrow if thats what we'll decide to play
:2: / :8: boxed

bisket
08-16-2009, 01:13 AM
2 year old maidens with many 1st time starters. there's 1 here that will most likely get a play on his nose, and i may play an exotic. the :3: hidden value is one i think many will overlook due to his 13 length out of the money finish last out, but i think there may be a good reason for that. the last time he raced on short rest he just missed winning at 5 furs. i wonder if they are having a tough time getting him a good work in the mornings because all his works are very light breezes. so i think maybe lukas races him once to get a good work in him, and then plans on winning the horses next out. so i think he's a good choice to win here, and may just come in at long odds. the other i like is the :1: marabella. nice race last out but i think he's a better chance at finishing second than 1st. he backed up a little going 5 furs and gets another 1/2 fur in this one. of the first time starters i like the :4: bonita donita. a good workout line and both her gate works were sub 12 second furs.
win bet
:3: hidden valu (his name is appropriate)
i'll decide on exacta or trifecta tomorrow

bisket
08-16-2009, 09:23 AM
i'll handicap race 3 closer to first postime
race 4
this looks to be a nice evenly matched group of ladies. :1: jz warrior is back at the distance and surface that she's performed best on, and i think she may be at a good price. on top of that imop she's the class here. mott has also put her through two successive strong morning works coming into this race. that's unlike mott so when he does this i take notice. so she's a possible win bet. odds are going to make a difference here. the other who's in line for a win bet is :5: american queen. she has two good performances in her last two against lesser competition, but she wasn't pushed at all in the mornings. so she's due for an improvement off those last two wins. i don't think a career best is out of the question. :4: thunders dove is coming off the bench, but zito has put some good stiff works into her. she's fast early and fast late. if thunder brings her a game
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zf0ZyoUn7Vk
possible win bets on
:1: jz warrior
:5: americam dance
tri box
:1: jz warrior
:4: thunders dove
:5: american queen

bisket
08-16-2009, 10:44 AM
i'll wait for scratches for race 5
race 6
state bred maidens. the :9: common currency is probably going to attract the money, but he hasn't put the sweat equity out in the mornings to win off the bench. i'll pass. this means we just might get some good odds for other picks. the :8: one note samba broke poorly in last, and the fact johnnie v sticks with him helps to like him even more. although johnnie v is the stables go to guy, but he's chosen to take other mounts if he thinks the stables horse isn't up to winning. :4: make note looks as if he'll break well. every one of his gate works have been stellar. he's worked well enough in the mornings to be ready. is he good enough? i dunno. lets see how the track is playing. if its speed favoring the :4: moves up. this may be a good spot for a 3 horse exacta box. the :5: mineswept is coming out of the same race as samba, and i like him here as well. can't count that loss as a deciding factor as the winner in that race was much the best on that given day. as the variables in this maiden are very wide spread throughout the field. this isn't written in stone but this is how i'll probably play it
exacta box
:4: make note
:5: mineswept
:8: one note samba
and we may throw some coin on one of the aboves nose.

bisket
08-16-2009, 11:15 AM
i like 2 in this one, and an exacta box will be the play. i like everything about the :2: epicuris coming into this race. the :6: steve's kitten is coming off a nice 5 1/2 furlong work in his last race. he's got the speed to get good position off the short run for the turn. if wesley can beat them in england on the turf; he can do it here also. although if i don't cash in this race i'm hoping the :8: seattle mission wins. i'd really love to see that fella with the flashy sport coat from sackatoga get his picture taken again. that crowd knows how to have fun!!!
exacta box
:2: epicuris
:6: steve's kitten

bisket
08-16-2009, 11:27 AM
i just saw that the 4 chairman now broke in tha air in last race. he may get into the picture in race 7. lets see how the turf plays

bisket
08-16-2009, 11:49 AM
i think the :2: siren serenade will get the majority of play, but you just don't win on turf with last 1 and 2 furlong times she's posted. i'll look elsewhere. both pletcher and mott send horses in here off sprints. 3rd off the bench for mott is usually the charm, and the :1: whisked away fits the bill. i like horses going longer off nice even races in sprints. pletchers entry :3: enticille fits the even sprint scenario also. we'll box these two.
exacta box and maybe a win bet that'll be a race time decision
:3: enticelle
:1: whisked away

bisket
08-16-2009, 12:04 PM
i think you gotta go with the horse who's been running long and cutting back in distance in this race. for tweener sprint/route distances like 6 1/2 furs and 7furs i usually like a horse who's been running quick early in routes and cutting back. these longer sprints usually go to the horse who has a little more stamina than the others. this is why the :1: top it is my choice. we'll box him in an exacta with the :6: bz warrior.
ex box
:1: top it
:6: bz warrior
probably a win bet on 1 of these also. we'll decide race time

Bobzilla
08-16-2009, 12:12 PM
somethings may change at racetime, but these are my thoughts going into the day. the changes will be minimal, but i'll decide exactly how i'll play my tickets about 15 minutes prior to the race. it seems speed was holding yesterday as a horse on the lead or chasing it won or finished in the money each race at saratoga on the dirt. the turf seemed to play a little more fair though.
race 1
this one looks pretty simple to read (sometimes that worries me). if the :8: jets tradition gets the lead it seems she wins. she seems to run 22 and change for his 1st 1/4 and that looks to get her into at least the 3 path going into the turn and the lead. in her last i really liked the horse that finished a 1/2 length behind her. so imop it was a strong win. the other in here that like is the :2: r betty graybull. it apears a pace of 22 and change sets her up for her best finishes. we'll box these two 1 and 2 in either a tri or exacta. if they are at short odds it may end up being a straight play. we'll see come race time, but right now thats the way it apears at this time. well fill out the tri tomorrow if thats what we'll decide to play
:2: / :8: boxed


Would not at all be surprised if either one of these won, particularly the :2: . My three are :2: ,:3: , and :6: . Of the three I prefer Gold for the Queen, the :3: . She'll probably be able to rate in a comfortable spot behind the speed along the rail, a position she's enjoyed in some past successes. As a two year old she was knocking heads against such fillies as La Concerto and Sezzana, both of whom have gone on to bigger and better things. Her 6/3 race is decievingly good considering the loss of ground and she was cutting into the lead on the outside. The FL races were against good company and she was once again running wide around that FL turn. In fact in the 6/20 race she was taken up a little and was forced up. Currently she's at 10/1. There are some seasoned and tough ones in here as is often the case with NYSB OC25/ N2X but I think she might be a bit fresher today off the 43 day freshening. Good luck today Bisket and good analysis's.

bisket
08-16-2009, 12:20 PM
this is a tough one because you have 2 in here that are in the claiming level off some winning races at a higher level. the first one the :3: check it twice is throw out. he's raced once in 2 years. although robbins didn't seem to have much invested in this colt at the beginning this horse can't stay healthy, and if he was healthy he wouldn't be running for a tag. i'll pass. the other that fits this bill is the :9: starforaday. he's been knocking around for years now. off his slow works i think he may win at this level now. :2: fuhrever dancing is at his level and in the form of his life at 7
exacta box
:2: fuhrever dancing
:9: starforaday
win bet on one of these, but we'll wait until race time to decide

bisket
08-16-2009, 12:28 PM
bobzilla: i had the the :3: marked as a possible at first glance through the pps, but my reasons for eliminating her are mostly class related. as you stated she knocked heads with some good ones early on. i'm always skeptical of the class of horses who win on the inner dirt at aqueduct. class wise thats always the softest of all new york meets. than racing at finger lakes only reinforces that. good luck bob if she comes in you'll be sittin pretty for the remainder of the day :ThmbUp: maybe i'll throw a couple of your into tri

bisket
08-16-2009, 12:43 PM
1$ tri wheel
:2: , :8: / :2: , :8: / :1: , :3: , :6:
2$ ex box
:2: and :8:
3$ win
:8:
we may bump the win bet close to race time. probably 2$

bisket
08-16-2009, 01:10 PM
good call bob. hope you had the :3: to win. closers take the 1st. although imop the srogest frontrunner 8 jets tradition was caught very wide on turn. so i'll see what happens going forward.

bisket
08-16-2009, 01:25 PM
5$ win :3:
2$ ex box
:3: - :4:

bisket
08-16-2009, 01:53 PM
3$ ex box
:1: - :6:
5$ win
:1: and :6:

bisket
08-16-2009, 02:00 PM
10$ win
1 top it

bisket
08-16-2009, 02:08 PM
top it missed the break or i think he woulda been there.

bisket
08-16-2009, 02:22 PM
no win bet
2$ tri box
:1: - :4: - :5:

bisket
08-16-2009, 02:47 PM
3$ ex box
:2: & :9:
1$ tri box
:2: & :4: & :9:

bisket
08-16-2009, 03:08 PM
:3: i'm entitiled sizzled through some opening fractions at monmouth last out. desormeaux is on him to strangle him at the start and parcel that speed over a little more ground than last out, and i'm buying. a couple of bombs after that pick. :10: inside info has ran 2 back to back strong outings in open claiming competition. his closing splits are better than everyone elses. he at least gets a piece but with the :1: he'll get a pace that'll make his closing kick even more potent. i like :9: citifests last 2 races in opoen competition also. i also like the :4: elusive fox last 3 races sdo we'll have a 4 horse tri box. the odds will make it worth it. i'm also goinmg to put 10$ win on :10: inside info.

bisket
08-16-2009, 03:22 PM
change the exacta box to a tri box
:4:& :5: & :8:
1$ ex box
:4: & :8:

bisket
08-16-2009, 03:49 PM
hit the ex and tri last race :jump: although it was pretty chalky, but we'll take it.

bisket
08-16-2009, 03:58 PM
2$ ex box
:2: & :6:
win bet on one of those but i'll wait until closer to race time
looks like sackatoga already hit their entry hard

bisket
08-16-2009, 04:12 PM
5$ win :2:

bisket
08-16-2009, 04:18 PM
whatya know sackatoga gets to party all night long :jump:

bisket
08-16-2009, 04:25 PM
we're gonna hit this race hard with the exacta
5$ ex box
:1: & :3: win bet decision will come later

bisket
08-16-2009, 04:41 PM
1$tri box
:1: & :2: & :3:
10$ win :1: & :3:

bisket
08-16-2009, 04:59 PM
the betting account would be looking a good bit fuller if the 3 could have gotten up for second, but i'll take it. hit the tri and win bet on that one :jump:

bisket
08-16-2009, 05:07 PM
2$ tri box
:3: & :9: & :10:
3$ ex box
:3: & :10:
10$ win bet
:10:

bisket
08-16-2009, 05:25 PM
shoulda went with the citidancer gelding. i had him boxed in the tri but liked the 10 better for the win. we were in the ballpark

bisket
08-16-2009, 05:44 PM
:7: banrock looks to be better than all of these and he's coming into the race in good order. i do give the :9: kutais a shot at beating him.he's had steady improving figs and races, and in last he was steadied after the start. the winner of that last race :2: hangingbyathread didn't get back on the track for a month after that race. he's a throwout.
2$ ex box
:7: & :9:
5$ win
:9:

bisket
08-16-2009, 06:01 PM
pennington ended up being banrocks main competition.

bisket
08-16-2009, 06:20 PM
i like 2 in this one. :3: smart trade has been holding his own in open allowance competition. i like him cutting back in distance. i'm gonna give :5: ghoul a shot in this race. he was competing in the new york circuit and just couldn't break through. he came close on several occassions. maybe the shot of confidence winning at mountaineer will help him get over the hump. well box those two in an exacta, and put a win bet on :5: ghoul
2$ ex box
:3: & :5:
5$ win
:5: