Done some reading, now what?

[hansend]

Hello again folks,

I've read a handful of books now and would like to try my hand at some "paper" handicapping without any money at this time and am having a hard time deciding what to do next.

I guess I am struggling with how on earth do you pick a track? Being here in Nebraska, yes there is a track going on some where (most of the time) so I'll probably play the minor track currently going on in Columbus (to support local), but I'd like to try my hand at another or two. Fonner Park offers a multitude of simulcast wagers so I am wondering how on earth do you go about choosing which track to play?

I know in a lot of the books I read they talked about establishing pars and things like that which I'd like to make this be a serious hobby and do all of the notetaking (currently building a database to enter times and such in as I am a programmer so that comes natural to me) required as I like a good challenge, but I can not see how all that can be done if you play a lot of tracks. I would think it may be hard to establish things if you bounce from track to track.

So what advice can you give for me on choosing track(s)? Are there really any "bad" ones that I should stay away from or just go and experience one? I can pull up Fonners Simulcast for today and see a dozen or more tracks to play.

[andymays]

At www.drf.com you can get the "Race of the Day" free past performances.

At www.dmtc.com they have a contest everyday with free past performances for the contest races along with other free handicapping stuff.

Stick with those two things for a couple of weeks and get your feet wet. Don't take on too much information or you'll go nuts!


Good Luck!

[illinoisbred]

I completely understand the quandry you're in.Picking a track can be difficult because most tracks represent a part of a circuit.To fully exploit a meet,you need to be well-aquianted with it's sister tracks,particularly early in the meet, or sit out of a lot of races. Personally, I think it's better to stay'local', you will have better knowledge of dramatic weather changes[if your local paper gives hourly wind speeds],you'll learn which track's shippers are to be taken seriously first out,and also begin to uncover the M.O. of some better outfits If Nebraska tracks are unappealing to you, and if you don't dislike synthetic tracks,I would recommend Woodbine to you,AN almost meet-exclusive circuit with a very stable horse population which runs from April-November..

[jonnielu]

Hello again folks,

I've read a handful of books now and would like to try my hand at some "paper" handicapping without any money at this time and am having a hard time deciding what to do next.

I guess I am struggling with how on earth do you pick a track? Being here in Nebraska, yes there is a track going on some where (most of the time) so I'll probably play the minor track currently going on in Columbus (to support local), but I'd like to try my hand at another or two. Fonner Park offers a multitude of simulcast wagers so I am wondering how on earth do you go about choosing which track to play?

I know in a lot of the books I read they talked about establishing pars and things like that which I'd like to make this be a serious hobby and do all of the notetaking (currently building a database to enter times and such in as I am a programmer so that comes natural to me) required as I like a good challenge, but I can not see how all that can be done if you play a lot of tracks. I would think it may be hard to establish things if you bounce from track to track.

So what advice can you give for me on choosing track(s)? Are there really any "bad" ones that I should stay away from or just go and experience one? I can pull up Fonners Simulcast for today and see a dozen or more tracks to play.

Any track will work, all the stuff you've read about variants and biases are just excuse making BS designed to make ineffective speed figures more commercially attractive, and their authors needed.

jdl

[GaryG]

I agree with jonnielu (sort of). This ia a game of people and horses, not numbers. Watch the races closely and tape them. Some are strong past the wire and some are ready to call 911. It is not easy and it is not quick. And there is no magic software. Best of luck, I know you will get a lot of conflicting advice.

[Imriledup]

The best advice i have is that if you are starting out and trying to learn the game, you want to learn the game at a track that's running a live race meet. Most of the best handicappers in today's world all learned the game going and seeing the horses up close. Of course, most of us started in a generation where there was no such thing as simulcasting, but i think you want to learn the game from the ground up.


Go watch the horses live. See them close in the paddock, watch the live races with binoculars, watch the horses gallop out, watch them come back to be unsaddled and stuff like that. Be very observant, every movement that every horse makes has meaning. Learn to watch live races and learn to view horses as athletes and not just statistics.

[fmolf]

The best advice i have is that if you are starting out and trying to learn the game, you want to learn the game at a track that's running a live race meet. Most of the best handicappers in today's world all learned the game going and seeing the horses up close. Of course, most of us started in a generation where there was no such thing as simulcasting, but i think you want to learn the game from the ground up.


Go watch the horses live. See them close in the paddock, watch the live races with binoculars, watch the horses gallop out, watch them come back to be unsaddled and stuff like that. Be very observant, every movement that every horse makes has meaning. Learn to watch live races and learn to view horses as athletes and not just statistics.
Excellent advice .I am a recreational/serious player who does most of his playing at the track.I go once a week sometimes twice and play the nyra circuit and then i choose one other track.now it is monmouth....before it was tampa...maybe before that it was laurel.....it varies for me but never more than two tracksat one time...I try to learn all i can about the trainers horses and jockeys at each track.My serious bets come when i am at the track and i pay serious close attention to the horses as they parade in the saddling area and during the warm up.I stick to the simpler bets win and exactas mostly with the occasional p3 and daily doubles.good luck and do keep accurate records to see where you are successful and where you are lacking.I keep records but i do not wager enough for them to be a big help.They are a good habit to develop though.good luck

[Viruss]

You might want to think about picking a track that runs year round..MNR PEN are a couple.............Good luck


Earl J

http://www.horse-races.net/library/links-pastperformances.htm

[ranchwest]

Rather than picking a track, you may want to pick a circuit -- a set of tracks with common participants (horse, jocks, trainers, hot walkers, etc.), usually with seasons that, considered as a set, run all or nearly all of the year.

Some circuits are more precisely recognized than others. For instance, Southern California is Del Mar, Santa Anita and Hollywood. NYRA is Saratoga, Belmont and Aqueduct. A slightly less recognizable circuit might be FG, LAD, OP and LS.

You'll likely get a much better feel for what is going on once you get familiar with the circuit.

Doing things like keeping pars is a lot of work, so you had best like that sort of thing or you'll rapidly suffer from burnout.

[Robert Fischer]

Start with New York if you are really that green. Take it slow and get a feel for things. You have to learn your strengths and your interests. Different tracks offer different qualities for different aspects, so once you know what you like you can move in that direction.

[acorn54]

Hello again folks,

I've read a handful of books now and would like to try my hand at some "paper" handicapping without any money at this time and am having a hard time deciding what to do next.

I guess I am struggling with how on earth do you pick a track? Being here in Nebraska, yes there is a track going on some where (most of the time) so I'll probably play the minor track currently going on in Columbus (to support local), but I'd like to try my hand at another or two. Fonner Park offers a multitude of simulcast wagers so I am wondering how on earth do you go about choosing which track to play?

I know in a lot of the books I read they talked about establishing pars and things like that which I'd like to make this be a serious hobby and do all of the notetaking (currently building a database to enter times and such in as I am a programmer so that comes natural to me) required as I like a good challenge, but I can not see how all that can be done if you play a lot of tracks. I would think it may be hard to establish things if you bounce from track to track.

So what advice can you give for me on choosing track(s)? Are there really any "bad" ones that I should stay away from or just go and experience one? I can pull up Fonners Simulcast for today and see a dozen or more tracks to play.


i am curious on why you chose horserace gambling as a venue of interest.
how old are you.
it seems nowadays the younger generations have more interest in the financial markets to make a go at making money outside of their job.

[Pell Mell]

I agree with jonnielu (sort of). This ia a game of people and horses, not numbers. Watch the races closely and tape them. Some are strong past the wire and some are ready to call 911. It is not easy and it is not quick. And there is no magic software. Best of luck, I know you will get a lot of conflicting advice.
And I agree with both. Mighty strange considering we all live in East TN:cool:

[JustRalph]

Race Shape........Race Shape..............Race Shape............


Did I mention ?

Race Shape........Race Shape..............Race Shape............


Learn it...................knowing how to predict it..........works in every race

[Robert Goren]

I grew up on the Nebraska circuit. Very cheap horses and cheaper trainers. I now bet maryland and delware. I do know some people who like the Fla curcit of CRC and Tampa. My advise is to watch the jockeys closely. There is usually one stand out who is getting a live horse in about every race. He is usually way over bet but you can find spots. One thing is for sure DO NOT bet a horse he is getting off of unless you seen that trainer pull that switch and win. It is almost always to the same "bad" jockey. If small trainer wins a race and he has another horse in a later race give it a extra look. Some of these guys like to parlay.

[LottaKash]

Race Shape

Learn it...................knowing how to predict it..........works in every race

Ralph, nailed it quite well, at least from my view of things....No matter the numbers, a horse must be in shape to win (most races).....

For me, a horse's shape (form) is one of 3-things, Improving, Regressing, or Staying the same.....I think that the "most important" aspect of all, when handicapping, is learning to recognize where a horse "is" in his current Form-Cycle....

All the numbers & ability, in the world are not of much value, if a horse is not in shape to take advantage of them....

If you can master this aspect of the game (race shape), then everything else will fall neatly into place, or at least you will have a better understanding of "why" horses may "Win & Lose"....

best,

[castaway01]

It's so hard to answer questions like this because the same thing won't work for everyone. In fact, the same thing can't work for everyone because if enough people focus on a certain tactic it kills the price. So, I would agree to start with a circuit, learn the trainers, figure out what kind of horse wins at each track, and pick your spots. If you want action, bet $2 in each race. If you want to win, start slow and pick your spots.

[ranchwest]

Ralph, nailed it quite well, at least from my view of things....No matter the numbers, a horse must be in shape to win (most races).....

For me, a horse's shape (form) is one of 3-things, Improving, Regressing, or Staying the same.....I think that the "most important" aspect of all, when handicapping, is learning to recognize where a horse "is" in his current Form-Cycle....

All the numbers & ability, in the world are not of much value, if a horse is not in shape to take advantage of them....

If you can master this aspect of the game (race shape), then everything else will fall neatly into place, or at least you will have a better understanding of "why" horses may "Win & Lose"....
best,

I believe JustRalph was using the term "race shape" to refer to comparative pace structure rather than form.

[LottaKash]

Ralph, nailed it quite well, at least from my view of things....No matter the numbers, a horse must be in shape to win (most races).....

For me, a horse's shape (form) is one of 3-things, Improving, Regressing, or Staying the same.....I think that the "most important" aspect of all, when handicapping, is learning to recognize where a horse "is" in his current Form-Cycle....

All the numbers & ability, in the world are not of much value, if a horse is not in shape to take advantage of them....

If you can master this aspect of the game (race shape), then everything else will fall neatly into place, or at least you will have a better understanding of "why" horses may "Win & Lose"....

best,

As a followup....

I would suggest that you "start" playing at a track where the "favorites" do well....And, stay at that track for a good-long-while......

Whatever "relative" measure of speed and performance you use, be it, the Beyer-ratings, DRF, or Bris and such.....I suggest you match it up with each horses's recent running lines, and see how that horse performed vs. the speed rating of that horse....After awhile you will begin to see what running lines are winning lines, or a losing line, and whether a particular horse is improving, regressing, or staying the same in his "form-cylcle" via how well he performed vs. those numbers....

Be consistent, and trust the numbers for now, and try not to second guess them.....This consistency, in using the same numbers, will be a short cut to gaining an insight to some "truths", and that is precisely what we are trying to measure when comparing each horse to another...the truth...

This is a good starting point, but, it takes time to really get really good at it, and any "good" handicapper will agree with this.....Stay alert, and bet small for a good while, otherwise you will get lost & confused, angry, or worse, in the process....

It should remain "fun" first....the profits can, and "should", come later on down the road....How long is that ?....As long as it takes to learn what the truth "is"...And, the truth, is a very complex thing and takes many forms and can be found by taking many different approaches & techniques.....But, ultimately, in the end, it wil be "your truth"...

best,

[Marlin]

I think you have the perfect circuit in your own state. Fonner, Lincoln?, Horsemans Park,and Columbus. (if they are all still operating) Plus I think they are only three days a week so you will not be overwhelmed. Diving into NY could be difficult. 5 days a week all year may be mentally and financially strapping. Good luck!

[ranchwest]

Keep in mind that the best situation is not when the favorite will win, but rather when the favorite will lose. Learn to find false favorites and you will be on the road to success.

[illinoisbred]

Yes,I agree.There are a lot of plusses in staying 'local'.First,you may develop friendships with other serious minded players,swap info.,and maybe share the workload on research.Secondly,and I know media coverage of racing generally sucks[at least here in chicago where the tribunes racing writer also covers high school girls volleyball] you may glean some information.

[LottaKash]

Keep in mind that the best situation is not when the favorite will win, but rather when the favorite will lose. Learn to find false favorites and you will be on the road to success.

Good advise, I think, ranchwest, still, when a person is first starting out, finding out what a legitimate favorite "looks like", I believe, should come first....

That is why I suggested to find a track where many favorites, do win....

In the end tho, they are "one in the same".... ultimately, it will still be a "yes" or "no".on the "legitimate" or "false" favorite......

best,

[ranchwest]

Good advise, I think, ranchwest, still, when a person is first starting out, finding out what a legitimate favorite "looks like", I believe, should come first....

That is why I suggested to find a track where many favorites, do win....

In the end tho, they are "one in the same".... ultimately, it will still be a "yes" or "no".on the "legitimate" or "false" favorite......

best,

I think you're on the right track. The question is whether the races run true to the data as you read it. Can you find the legitimate and phoney favorites at that particular track? A thorough knowledge of the circuit usually helps.

[LottaKash]

I think you're on the right track. The question is whether the races run true to the data as you read it. Can you find the legitimate and phoney favorites at that particular track? A thorough knowledge of the circuit usually helps.

HaHa, ranch, well now, "that is" the real handicapping and learning part, ain't it ?.....:jump:

One step at a time.....:lol:

best,

[riskman]

[QUOTE=ranchwest]Keep in mind that the best situation is not when the favorite will win, but rather when the favorite will lose. Learn to find false favorites and you will be on the road to success.[/QUOT

Yes sir, if you become good at this you will make money.
Your handicapping job is to identify the 2 out of 3 races that will not be won by the crowd favorite and to identify the two most likely non-favorite winners in these races.

[JustRalph]

I believe JustRalph was using the term "race shape" to refer to comparative pace structure rather than form.
:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[46zilzal]

Every one has a style of handicapping that works better at some courses than another. YOU have to find that fit so cap a variety of them before deciding.

[Light]

After playing 25 years,I've had to ask myself the same question. What tracks to play. Reasons are :

A) Artificial surfaces

B) Quality of racing has gone down. Fields are smaller and filled with classless horses.

c) Drug addicted horses and their drug pushing trainers.

Other than that,you have to ask yourself if you want to play Turf races. Can you handicap difficult distances races like 5f or 7.5f or 1 3/16. Do you like bullrings, 2 turn sprints, or large tracks with 1 turn routes? Or do you just like a standard dirt track with standard distances without turf racing. What type of horses do you like to play? Young or old. Maiden races or races for older,more seasoned horses. After you answer those questions to yourself,you'll cut out about 80% of the tracks and find your niche. Of course thats just for starters in choosing a track. After that,the party's just begining. You'll quickly find those books you read are best used as a general outline rather than specific criteria.

[Robert Fischer]

After playing 25 years,I've had to ask myself the same question. What tracks to play. Reasons are :

A) Artificial surfaces

B) Quality of racing has gone down. Fields are smaller and filled with classless horses.

c) Drug addicted horses and their drug pushing trainers.

Other than that,you have to ask yourself if you want to play Turf races. Can you handicap difficult distances races like 5f or 7.5f or 1 3/16. Do you like bullrings, 2 turn sprints, or large tracks with 1 turn routes? Or do you just like a standard dirt track with standard distances without turf racing. What type of horses do you like to play? Young or old. Maiden races or races for older,more seasoned horses. After you answer those questions to yourself,you'll cut out about 80% of the tracks and find your niche. Of course thats just for starters in choosing a track. After that,the party's just begining. You'll quickly find those books you read are best used as a general outline rather than specific criteria.

i don't necessarily agree with Light's ABCs but he just gave the best advice anyone has given so far in this thread.
you are supposed to pick a track that fits the things that you want and that you don't want! These tracks are not all the same. DRF has a nice page which shows some of the basic configurations. Looking at a chart or a replay or even some famous races on youtube can give you hints about what kind of races might be at a certain track. You might pick a track because it features the types of races you enjoy the most, or maybe because you think you can make money there etc...

[illinoisbred]

After playing 25 years,I've had to ask myself the same question. What tracks to play. Reasons are :

A) Artificial surfaces

B) Quality of racing has gone down. Fields are smaller and filled with classless horses.

c) Drug addicted horses and their drug pushing trainers.

Other than that,you have to ask yourself if you want to play Turf races. Can you handicap difficult distances races like 5f or 7.5f or 1 3/16. Do you like bullrings, 2 turn sprints, or large tracks with 1 turn routes? Or do you just like a standard dirt track with standard distances without turf racing. What type of horses do you like to play? Young or old. Maiden races or races for older,more seasoned horses. After you answer those questions to yourself,you'll cut out about 80% of the tracks and find your niche. Of course thats just for starters in choosing a track. After that,the party's just begining. You'll quickly find those books you read are best used as a general outline rather than specific criteria.
Excellent questions for the newcomer to consider.I'm considering adding a second track and I've been asking some of the same questions.My absolute advice would be to avoid tracks where many of the so-called supertrainers ply their trade.They're there for a reason-lax jurisdictions.Remember this,a drugged-up animal doesn't respond or comply with many handicapping theories.They don't bounce when expected and can run big race after big race on as little as 4-7 days rest.Isn't it uncanny how poorly they'll perform once some poor shmuck who's honest claims them.

[46zilzal]

TRUE LITTLE venues have better prices, that is OTHER than Woodbine which is great all the time

[illinoisbred]

I'm seriously considering Woodbine as my second track.I followed racing there last year and can't believe the purses they run for there.Why isn't everybody running a stable there?

[illinoisbred]

Just curious,is Assmussen still the only trainer required to place his entrants in the detention barn at Woodbine?I believe last year he was.

[46zilzal]

I'm seriously considering Woodbine as my second track.I followed racing there last year and can't believe the purses they run for there.Why isn't everybody running a stable there?
MANY of our trainers here have shipped out for that very reason.........BIG time place

[46zilzal]

Just curious,is Assmussen still the only trainer required to place his entrants in the detention barn at Woodbine?I believe last year he was.
No there are several required to stay there each day

[Space Monkey]

First of all I would suggest going to www.horseplayersassociation.org and click on "player resources" and then "track ratings" to learn about the takeouts at all the North American tracks. I stay away as much as possible from bets that have a takeout of 25% or higher.

I would suggest the Illinois circuit. Arlington/Hawthorne. Fields are small, usually 6-9 horses. You don't want to get involved with NY as a rookie. Trust me, there are many more variables in handicapping the major circuits. Arlington is running now and is a polytrack and turf course. Just about all the horses have extensive poly form. The trainer/jockey colony is pretty stable. A lot of handicappers don't like the synthetics, but I don't have a problem with them, especially at tracks like Arlington. Favorite win %'s are very close to dirt, and you don't have to adjust your handicapping if it rains. I find it much easier handicapping turf races on soft or good conditions than dirt races on sloppy, muddy or good tracks.

I would stick to Win, Doubles, and Exactas at first. When you look at H.A.N.A's takeout spreadsheet you will notice that these bets have generally the lowest takeout and are the easiest to hit.

GOOD LUCK!!!

[illinoisbred]

First of all I would suggest going to www.horseplayersassociation.org and click on "player resources" and then "track ratings" to learn about the takeouts at all the North American tracks. I stay away as much as possible from bets that have a takeout of 25% or higher.

I would suggest the Illinois circuit. Arlington/Hawthorne. Fields are small, usually 6-9 horses. You don't want to get involved with NY as a rookie. Trust me, there are many more variables in handicapping the major circuits. Arlington is running now and is a polytrack and turf course. Just about all the horses have extensive poly form. The trainer/jockey colony is pretty stable. A lot of handicappers don't like the synthetics, but I don't have a problem with them, especially at tracks like Arlington. Favorite win %'s are very close to dirt, and you don't have to adjust your handicapping if it rains. I find it much easier handicapping turf races on soft or good conditions than dirt races on sloppy, muddy or good tracks.

I would stick to Win, Doubles, and Exactas at first. When you look at H.A.N.A's takeout spreadsheet you will notice that these bets have generally the lowest takeout and are the easiest to hit.

GOOD LUCK!!!
Illinois is a good choice.Arlington is a nice long meet and Hawthorne is its bookends.You'll need to get a handle on alot of shippers at AP,particularly early in the meet or sit races out.Hawthorne has real difficulty filling races during the late winter/early spring meet Most of the better horses winter at Tampa,Fair Grounds,or Oaklawn.The fall meet usually has full fields and gradually starts to come up short after Thanksgiving.It used to be that some outfits stabled at Hawthorne year-round,vanning up to AP to race.My Father always refered to Hawthorne's backstretch as the roach motel, horses check in and never leave.It's really a somewhat ugly facility in a very shitty area.I've played this circuit since 1982 and i haven't been to Hawthorne sinceGold Cup day in 1989.AP on the other hand is one of the most beautiful, immaculate racetracks in the country.The poly surface until this year was pretty consistent and the turf course is one of this nation's best.

[Space Monkey]

Tampa is my home track and I recommend it as a winter alternative. The takeout here (lowest) is in the top third of all the NA tracks :) . Yes, Illinoisbred, you see a ton of Haw horses here. There's a huge advantage following your horses down here if you pay attention to trainer patterns!!!

[46zilzal]

Tampa is a very good choice: variety of races, good weather, mostly logical races

[illinoisbred]

Tampa is my home track and I recommend it as a winter alternative. The takeout here (lowest) is in the top third of all the NA tracks :) . Yes, Illinoisbred, you see a ton of Haw horses here. There's a huge advantage following your horses down here if you pay attention to trainer patterns!!!
I've noticed that for a few years now.I often watch tampa's races but haven't played there.What do you think of Dale Bennett? He's winning at a pretty good clip here now.A relative of mine visits his barn often,says he's on the up and up.I think I've read here that he's had alot of bad tests at Tampa and they sweep them under the rug.Also,I'm always leery of Dini, wins alot with headscratchers.He also ships over to mountaineer quite a bit from here and I don't personally trust illinois trainers that ship-in there for a race,it doesn't make sense.

[Space Monkey]

I like Bennett. haven't heard any bad stuff about him. He did OK with only starting about half as many horses as most of the other top trainers.

Who is Dini?? Ness was the dominant trainer last meet and I heard they found some stuff left behind in one of his barns, but nothing came of it. Hes branched out this spring/summer. Trying to build on his recent success.

Kirk Zaidie is the trainer I think you're referring to. He has a ton of Florida violations, most at Calder, and he has skated pretty well on them so far. IMO hes the dirtiest of the group.

[illinoisbred]

Mike Dini,always wears khaki pants,light blue polo shirt,white gym shoes.He,s a trainer,stabled here but runs horses at Delaware,Churchill,and Mountaineer.He seems to win with alot of nondesript horses.He along with larry Rivelli ship to Mountaineer quite a bit for 1 race.It's a maneuver I don't trust.Dini seemed to win some races at Tampa last winter.

[Space Monkey]

Never heard of him. Can't find him on the top trainer list. While Tampa is my home track, I'm not a regular. I currently live 45 minutes from there and have a demanding work schedule. I do 90% of my betting from home and spread it out over many tracks. But I think I'm going to change that this winter. I plan on concentrating on the Tampa meet more. It has a limited schedule in Dec. and Jan is the shipping month. It takes until the first of Feb b4 you can get a consistent line on the races.

[raybo]

To the thread starter's question. What you do next is get yourself some sort of tracking application, whether it be commercial or home grown in Excel, or similar. Before you take the next step make sure you're ready to learn from your mistakes and your successes.

It really doesn't matter which tracks you start at, because what lies ahead of you is strictly a learning exercise. If you start with tracks that are beyond you, skills-wise, and you are tracking all your "paper" wagers AND the reason(s) you made them, you will quickly realize that you're not ready for that track, or those tracks.

I agree with the poster(s) that stated that it is important to be able to recognize a "true" favorite and those that aren't. Actually seeing races that run the way they should, gives you a solid base for the harder, more profitable methods, like looking for "value" in horses that actually have a decent chance of winning or running in the money, depending on which types of wagers you are making.

I also agree that race shape is extremely important. This is a little advanced but you might as well start getting familiar with it. Lone speed horse vs multiple speed horses is like night and day when it comes to "seeing" the race before it runs. The public likes speed and the sooner you learn that speed can kill, the closer you'll be to becoming profitable.

I've saved my most important suggestion for last by getting all the other "important" things out of the way first.

The most important thing for new handicappers to learn is how to discern, as accurately as possible, the current condition (physical status) of each horse in each race. A very good horse in poor or declining form can and will be beaten by a lesser horse in good or improving form. This task is, in my opinion, the most difficult aspect of handicapping. Why do you think that favorites only win around 1/3 of their races? Even odds-on or lower favorites only win 1/2 their races. There is more than one reason for this, but, the most frequently occurring factor is their physical condition.

While it's not as frequent in higher class races, as lower ones, it still impacts each race, in one way or another.

My motto is and always has been: "Current condition determines everything else", and I stand behind that statement 100%.

Finally, you need to ask yourself a few very personal questions: "Am I just a gambler or am I an investor?". If you're just a gambler, what can you stand to lose? Because, you will almost certainly lose.

If you are an investor, what are your goals? Do you want to make a living at this or do you just want additional income?

The answers to these questions will decide which of the myriad of playing choices you should pursue.

[Space Monkey]

Great post Ray.

I had to laugh (in agreement) when I read the line that stated that the physical condition of the horse is less of a factor in higher class races. I make most of my $ in the claimers where it is MUCH easier to determine, not only the fitness, but also the trainer patterns that are so important in determining the winner.

[BUD]

My Apologies if this was already written-

Find a good place to wager-Don't get suckered into TVG's free 3 months-
That .25 will destroy any newbie //novice--Paying to see the vid? OK talk about
Idiacy in action---
Make sure you Wagering Co-Has the Tracks you decide on-Also in the very begining try to make sure you can watch your money run--If you don't you my find your money runing away from you and slowly you lose interest.

This forum is loaded with real good folk--& is a good spot to learn from many here--(for free)--Best of the Bets to you.

[raybo]

Great post Ray.

I had to laugh (in agreement) when I read the line that stated that the physical condition of the horse is less of a factor in higher class races. I make most of my $ in the claimers where it is MUCH easier to determine, not only the fitness, but also the trainer patterns that are so important in determining the winner.

Agreed, I play 3yo and up, cheap claimers, almost exclusively.

[Space Monkey]

Ray, what are your favorite "cheap" tracks to play? Nowadays you can find lower level races at even the most prestigious meets. In my handicapping retooling process so far I like the Illinois circuit, ARL/Haw, Indiana and Tampa. I don't like MNR's wagering menu and the jury is still out on Praire Meadows. Tomorrow I'm giving Finger Lakes a shot for the first time in decades. Might take a look at Suffolk next, just for old times sake.

[raybo]

Ray, what are your favorite "cheap" tracks to play? Nowadays you can find lower level races at even the most prestigious meets. In my handicapping retooling process so far I like the Illinois circuit, ARL/Haw, Indiana and Tampa. I don't like MNR's wagering menu and the jury is still out on Praire Meadows. Tomorrow I'm giving Finger Lakes a shot for the first time in decades. Might take a look at Suffolk next, just for old times sake.

Haw, Tam, Hoo, Hou, FG, LaD, EvD, LS.

[rusrious]

My thoughts, find a place to buy a Daily Race Form, then sit and go thru the entire Form, using what you learned. Test yourself. Then, go to DRF.com, or a site where you can find the results, and look at the results, log them into the Daily Form, next to your races. Then go thru EACH race, and find things that stand out to WHY the horse won. I say Won, because starting out, thats your main objective, FIND THE WINNER. STAY AWAY FROM EXOTICS FOR A FEW YEARS, SERIOUSLY.

Then, the next day, do it again.. This time, right your picks in a notebook, then go thru whole process again..

Now, with the second day Form, you can use this for a few rounds, meaning do the whole process a few times, maybe even 5-6 times, like I did. You will teach the brain to look for KEYS, this works very well, for me anyways.. But seriously, use the same Form a few times, they arnt that cheap.. Do this for a few days, then take a week off, doing nothing with handicappin. Then, do it allllllll over again, for a few days, and take another week off.. I did the process, seriously, about 1000 times, over the course of 4-5 years.. Once a month, hit the OTB, if you have one, and go with nothing more then enough to bet on 10 races, or $20. Dont drink beer, dont go with friends, just go to test your skills. Use your winnings to buy more programs or the Daily.

Im tellin ya, this isnt easy, well, not at the beginning ( 3-4 years )..

Soon, you should be able to go thru the form, and pick your winners, and spending as little time as 30 seconds a race.

Its hardcore training of the brain..

Keep records of YOUR results..

Just my 2cents,

Great Luck Bud

[acorn54]

what i find interesting is that the original poster has not returned to respond to any of these replies.
is he even reading this stuff?

[TimesTheyRAChangin]

what i find interesting is that the original poster has not returned to respond to any of these replies.
is he even reading this stuff?

He was on at 9:30 last night.

[hansend]

Yes, I am reading it and jotting things down. All the help and advice is very helpful. I just like to see what everyone has to say. Some peoples replies seem a bit unnecessary. I've been doing a few buying/reading of forms already and am not hitting to many winners yet (whether there would have been a bet or not I can not say as I usually do them all then check results later), but I keep going at it.

[Space Monkey]

Sometimes, especially when the original poster doesn't respond to the people that are responding to him, they start their own conversations.

[acorn54]

Yes, I am reading it and jotting things down. All the help and advice is very helpful. I just like to see what everyone has to say. Some peoples replies seem a bit unnecessary. I've been doing a few buying/reading of forms already and am not hitting to many winners yet (whether there would have been a bet or not I can not say as I usually do them all then check results later), but I keep going at it.

i am still curious as to why you chose gambling on horseraces as a venue of interest. it seems the younger generation finds it more fruitful to learn how to invest in stocks, options, currencies, or futures.

[46zilzal]

i am still curious as to why you chose gambling on horseraces as a venue of interest. it seems the younger generation finds it more fruitful to learn how to invest in stocks, options, currencies, or futures.
Because time (World Com) and time (Madoff) and time (Enron) and time (junk bonds) and time (the wall street meltdown) again we are reminded of how HONEST horses are. People would steal a ring off of a severed arm after it was left out on a field from a plane crash. Horses wouldn't.
It's history is remarkable, deeply moving..the animals are beautiful courageous beings, coming back trying the BEST THEY CAN FOR US every single time.

Corny, probably, but it is the beauty of a game that you put your wits up against the crowd and not some back alley deal making slime who would steal you blind and then laugh about it.

[hansend]

i am still curious as to why you chose gambling on horseraces as a venue of interest. it seems the younger generation finds it more fruitful to learn how to invest in stocks, options, currencies, or futures.

More of a challenge really. I would be fine if I never made a bet in my life but I can for a few dollars a week "entertain" (I use that loosely) myself by giving myself a challenge of analyzing horses. Obviously the time and effort I put in will lead me to making a bet, but I'm not out there to make a living.

Stock market does not interest me to go along with the fact that you need a good extra bit of money to play it. I was a chess player, Nebraska is not exactly a hotbed for that either, however here in Grand Island there is Fonner Park which has simulcasting all the time so I can always have that challenge.

[acorn54]

More of a challenge really. I would be fine if I never made a bet in my life but I can for a few dollars a week "entertain" (I use that loosely) myself by giving myself a challenge of analyzing horses. Obviously the time and effort I put in will lead me to making a bet, but I'm not out there to make a living.

Stock market does not interest me to go along with the fact that you need a good extra bit of money to play it. I was a chess player, Nebraska is not exactly a hotbed for that either, however here in Grand Island there is Fonner Park which has simulcasting all the time so I can always have that challenge.


your reasons seem realistic. you should do fine then in the hobby of horserace gambling

[46zilzal]

your reasons seem realistic. you should do fine then in the hobby of horserace gambling
A lot more than a hobby for many of us. FAR more serious an avocation.

[jonnielu]

Yes, I am reading it and jotting things down. All the help and advice is very helpful. I just like to see what everyone has to say. Some peoples replies seem a bit unnecessary. I've been doing a few buying/reading of forms already and am not hitting to many winners yet (whether there would have been a bet or not I can not say as I usually do them all then check results later), but I keep going at it.

Well then, this might be a good time to step back and consider some reality before you get sucked into some 30 year habits.

People have been reading forms and not getting too many winners for over 100 years now. Not just a couple of people, but millions of people. After all of that practice, anybody on this board will telll you that you can't win at the race track, except for me. But, just ask them about that too.

Think with me for a couple of minutes, every public and track handicapper looks in the form for winners. Go watch the DRF's "Talking Horses" for a week.

The best handicappers in the country are doing good to get 3 winners out of 10 from the form. Even Steve Crist will admit to putting 8 horses on a ticket for one race. He employs the best handicappers in the country.

After a couple of minutes, you might have to conclude, that might be as good as it gets, from the form. 30%, more or less, roundabout.

Any public source will give you that much, without you doing or buying anything besides the program and a newspaper. With millions of people handicapping the form, you would think that someone would be doing better, if, what you need to make the difference between winning and losing is in the form. Rest assured, in the form, you only have what everybody else has.

These are the meaningful statistics/facts of this sport, upon which you can build a method of winning.

1. The morning line favorite will win 1/3 of the races on virtually a daily basis.

A staggering consistency that is still largely unrecognized.

2. The top 4 ML win win 2/3 of the races on virtually a daily basis.

Another staggering consistency that is still largely unrecognized.

3. The horse that just won the race probably felt like winning a race and put that on display. However, 99% of handicappers are too busy looking for more than 30% winners in the form to notice.

Physicality represents 1/3 of the available information that will impact today's race to a large degree. There is no publication for it, and 90% of horseplayers make no attempt to collect it.

4. The "best horse" may or may not win the race today, but the horse that best executes the distance will.

5. Cheap horses cannot rate, champions can.

6. It is not how fast they run, it is how they run fast.

7. The handicapper is done as soon as he finds the horse with the best "past" performances, and assumes that this is the "best horse". This is the analysts starting point.

8. Past or present, a horses performance in a race is a product of that particular gathering of horses. Whatever it did last, today will likely differ to some extent.

9. At the root of all that stands, there is a sound, firm foundation that does not shift.

Set your method on such a foundation and you will know consistency that the form handicapper is unable to believe.

jdl

[TurfRuler]

Because time (World Com) and time (Madoff) and time (Enron) and time (junk bonds) and time (the wall street meltdown) again we are reminded of how HONEST horses are. People would steal a ring off of a severed arm after it was left out on a field from a plane crash. Horses wouldn't.
It's history is remarkable, deeply moving..the animals are beautiful courageous beings, coming back trying the BEST THEY CAN FOR US every single time.

Corny, probably, but it is the beauty of a game that you put your wits up against the crowd and not some back alley deal making slime who would steal you blind and then laugh about it.


46zilzal; just because they escape justice for a length of time before being found out and then they die and leave the world for others who want to take their places and swindle fortunes away from all those who trust in them; what a pessimist you are about great criminals. :mad:

Handsend:

Stick with paper racing, mind wagers, for as many years as it takes you to firmly understand what it takes to win wagers. For each and every subject you want to master, check the search forums at this site and read and re-read the posters comments. This topic has many jewels for you to use. Start now or as early as possible to follow the horses from the beginning of their racing careers until their retirement to the breeding shed and beyond, follow their progeny. Know the leading sires by following the Bloodhorse.com lists and foreign horse leaders as well. Begin keeping your own list of horse to watch and use it as part of your paper and mind wagers. Know as much about the horses you make a money wager on as well as the ones you watch for fun. Don’t shy away from watching maiden claimers as well as Grade I races.

Remember there are disadvantages wagering on horses running for the first time as well as there being advantages expected of winners with skilled riders, there is an advantage to wagering on horses that lead out of the starting gate and well as coming from the clouds. Race shape is form and also how the race is going to be run today, whether it is for the closer or the front runner.

To get a thing at 100% less, you will follow the right path by paper racing before staring to make money bets. In real life horses shoot away from the gate like a flock of birds and some of them bolt or shy away or throw their riders and you lose. Always depend on the horse but he can suffer injury by bucking, breaking his leg and suffer colic or become infected from another horse. Feeding the mutual pools does not feed you unless you become a winner. Take the money but be confident that you are picking winners first.

[rusrious]

lots of great info here fellas, even a long time handicapper can refresh from a differant perspective, awesome, (TurfRuler,jonnielu) great posts fellas:ThmbUp: