AND I QUOTE...

[lousycapper]

This much is certain about the 128th Preakness: Funny Cide won't get a dream trip again. He will start from post position 9, and inside him are five horses with a measure of early speed: Cherokee's Boy (post 1), Scrimshaw (2), Midway Road (6), Peace Rules (7) and New York Hero (8). The favorite is almost ensured of being parked wide on the first turn, and he may be forced to race outside his rivals for the entire 13/16 miles. Going wide on both turns of a route race is invariably costly, and it is more harmful at Pimlico than at most tracks. In distance races at the current meeting, horses breaking from post 8 and beyond are a collective 1 for 50.

Peace Rules figures to lose ground at the first turn after starting from post 7, but not as much as Funny Cide. Both likely will be a length or two behind the early leaders. What happens after that will depend on jockeys Edgar Prado and Jose Santos, because their mounts have similar talent and running styles. Both are tractable enough to stalk other speed horses. When the two faced each other in the Louisiana Derby in March, Funny Cide went to the front, and Peace Rules rallied to win. (Trainer Barclay Tagg said his gelding was still recovering from a throat problem at the time, so perhaps the result can't be taken at face value.)

In the Preakness, I believe Peace Rules has the edge, based strictly on trips. Funny Cide benefited from a perfect scenario in the Derby. With his outside post position at Pimlico, he is apt to have a slightly more difficult trip than Peace Rules. These factors ought to be worth more than two lengths -- but just barely. This Preakness has the earmarks of a race that will be decided after a close battle through the stretch.

Though it may be a thriller to watch, it is certainly not a thriller as a betting event. The two contenders will both be short prices, and there is no value in playing either to win. Exactas combining them will be minuscule, too. However, the trifecta may offer a glimmer of a possibility. The solid third choice in the wagering will be the entry of Scrimshaw and Senor Swinger; they are trained, respectively, by Wayne Lukas and Bob Baffert, who have won seven of the last nine runnings of the Preakness. But neither colt has convincing credentials. Kissin Saint -- who encountered significant trouble in the Wood Memorial while finishing third behind Empire Maker and Funny Cide -- can finish third behind the favorites in the Preakness, and he will be a big price.

-A. BEYER (C) WASHINGTON POST

THAT'S WHY WE LUV YA ANDY... YOU ARE SO FULL OF IT!

-L.C.

[cj]

Condemning the guy for a losing selection? I don't get it.

CJ

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
Condemning the guy for a losing selection? I don't get it.

CJ

============================
If I was condemning Mr. Beyer for a losing selection then that would be a case of the pot calling the kettle black. As a racing journalist he is excellent. My comment is directed at his, "holier than thou", attitude which IMHO he exudes in this article; that's all!

-L.C.

[cj]

He's been writing that way since before you were born. I'd rather a guy be confident in his picks then wishy washy. I feel holier than thou every time I place a wager, then about 80% of the bets, I lose. That is the way of the game.

CJ

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
He's been writing that way since before you were born. I'd rather a guy be confident in his picks then wishy washy. I feel holier than thou every time I place a wager, then about 80% of the bets, I lose. That is the way of the game.

CJ

============================

There's a big difference between confidence and arrogance. Confidence, yes! Arrogance, No!

-L.C.

[theotherside]

once again andy beyer has proven how irrelevant he has become.in his evaluation of the derby he talks about how funny cide got the perfect trip and this wont happen again because in his prerace prediction of the preakness he says funny cide will be outside on both turns.he was wright but it didnt matter.this horse will allways get a dream trip because he is an early presser,he will always sit perfect assuming a good break.or he can go for the lead if he wants.beyer is a dinosaur who has truly lost touch with any semblence of his once winning method.this self proclamed guru of speed figures hasnt picked a winner publicly in any big races since,hmmm i cant remember when.

[Speed Figure]

Beyer is way to "OLD SCHOOL" it's 2003 andy not 1975. When was the last time he picked a winner? Someone should sell him a software program fast!:D

[Tom]

There is probably a different amount of care and skill used to prepare nunbers you are going to use yourself and those you are going to sell the DRF. The best use of the Beyer I know of is when you find out one is wrong and can capitalize on it.
i am much more impressed with his partner, Mark Hopkins, than I ever was with Beyer. He is a winning player - that is probably why we never hear much from him. If he ever writes a book, it will be worth reading.

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by Tom

i am much more impressed with his partner, Mark Hopkins, than I ever was with Beyer. He is a winning player - that is probably why we never hear much from him. If he ever writes a book, it will be worth reading.

============================

Grampa says that Mr. Hopkins is one of the sharpest players around. He used to correspond with Mr. Hopkins right after the DRF started using the Beyer numbers. Grampa doesn't think he'll be writing a book even if he retires.

-L.C.

[superfecta]

Is how Beyer disparaged this horse after his win,saying this horse has no chance to win the Triple Crown.Sounded like sour grapes then and sour grapes now.Probably will write how sorry this years crop of 3 year olds are....which would be dumb until these horses run the rest of their careers and then see how they stack up against past champions.But no one accused him of being a rocket scientist.I bet most have accused him of just being an A-hole...

[Kentucky Bred]

Even though Beyer was wrong, the percentage chances of Funny Cide improving off of his major Derby win was improbable. The outside post was big, he had to rush up fast and then still be three wide on the first turn. Funny Cide should have been one of a long list of Derby winners which fade in the Preakness. He wasn't.

If I had to write the most popular racing syndicated column in the country, I think it would be boring to write that Funny Cide will repeat. I think it would be exciting to say that Funny Cide won't repeat and pick the 8-5 ML shot instead. Not so stupid, if you think about it.

Kentucky Bred

[superfecta]

Originally posted by Kentucky Bred

If I had to write the most popular racing syndicated column in the country, I think it would be boring to write that Funny Cide will repeat. I think it would be exciting to say that Funny Cide won't repeat and pick the 8-5 ML shot instead. Not so stupid, if you think about it.

Kentucky Bred Uh,You confused me KB.Write an article saying FC wont win and pick him to win?Your giving Beyer too much credit IMO,if you mean hes trying to make a case for a longshot.Some races its not picking a longshot to win,its picking those longshots in the other slots that can actually make a sure winner a good paying winner.

[theotherside]

the bottom line on beyer is that he just never picks winners in any big races,never,not in the breeders cup races,not in the triple crown races,not in nothing!

[plainolebill]

Beyer seems to have become part of the racing establishment where he was at one time on the cutting edge. So be it. Just happens to everyone and every business that becomes successful. I am glad that I'm not accountable to the public for all my losers.

I like what Baffert said after the race: That he lost track of where his horse was, and just watched Funnycide and enjoyed the excitement of the crowd. Also said he'd be rooting for FC to win the triple crown. Me too! Even if he won't offer any value. Hey the exacta WAS nice. Thanks PA and ESROI.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by Kentucky Bred
Even though Beyer was wrong, the percentage chances of Funny Cide improving off of his major Derby win was improbable.
K

I disagree here. After the work he put in and the way he looked during the last two weeks I was pretty sure he was going to improve again. I didn't expect him to beat the Preakness field by that much, but? I would say that he might be at the top right now. Much less likely to improve from here, but you never know. Then again, he is two thirds of the way home. No matter what happens at the Belmont, he earned his way. I think he just peaked at the right time. The trainers that start this Triple Crown trail chase too early are the one's sitting around bitching right now. Tagg just let his horse come to him and timed it right. I would say he has another race at top form before I look for a drop. Lets hope he doesn't have to beat a million of them in the Belmont. How many do they let start? Of course there is always Bobby Frankel and Empire Maker laying in wait with 5 weeks of freshening.

[andicap]

If anyone here remembers, Beyer also badmouthed Seattle Slew throughout his Triple Crown run, saying he never beat anyone good. Lots of writers do this, in order to draw attention to themselves. Who would read someone who just writes what everyone else does, that FC is the real thing?

On Seattle Slew, Beyer wasn't alone back then, however. Lots of "experts" never gave Slew any respect until he lost by a nose in that thriller (Jockey Club Gold Cup?) race to Exceller, I believe.

So this is nothing new for Beyer.

I disagree that he has become part of the "establishment."
If you read his columns, he continues to tweak the racing industry for all the dumb things they do -- I think he's as feisty as ever.

[lousycapper]

Originally posted by andicap


I disagree that he has become part of the "establishment."
If you read his columns, he continues to tweak the racing industry for all the dumb things they do -- I think he's as feisty as ever.

=============================

Grampa has a saying, "If only we could burn all the dummies in racing there would be no fuel shortage". Mr. Beyer puts his foot in his mouth on a regular basis, however he is right about the way things have gone down hill in the racing industry over the years. I wish the powers that be would listen to him on occasion.

-L.C.