which means most to you?

[BIG HIT]

When looking at pp which would you take as your selection of the to horse you have it down two.One w\fast time of last race or one with best fig.
Both ran same dist one had fast time for his race verse other had better fig and now they are raceing agianst each other today.Just like to know how you guys handle it and generaly speaking which % wise win over other

[Overlay]

Restricting consideration only to those two factors, and looking at it from the standpoint of pure winning probability, I'd favor the horse with the higher Beyer figure, since that would at least cover some of the elements that contributed to each horse's final time. (However, from my particular perspective, the horse's odds would also have to offer value for it to be worth a bet.)

[BIG HIT]

Interesting i know there is alot varibles and agree price is always final decision that or no play at all.Today at LRL R7 like #3 and #9 one ml for 3 is 12\1 and 9 is 8\1 #3 5 and 1\2 furlongs in 103 spd fig 78 and #9 ran 5f in 56and 2\5 spd fig 92 b0th faced same pace.I took the #3 as both race were fast but felt #3 is running 5 1\2f same dist as today race all rest of my bet had spd fig advantage thanks agian

[rastajenk]

Man, that was a tough read. :confused:

[magwell]

If it was yesterday on the dirt at saratoga I would go for the one with early speed but today I would go for the closer..... :cool:

[njcurveball]

When looking at pp which would you take as your selection of the to horse you have it down two.One w\fast time of last race or one with best fig.
Both ran same dist one had fast time for his race verse other had better fig and now they are raceing agianst each other today.Just like to know how you guys handle it and generaly speaking which % wise win over other

Why not dutch them if the odds allow? If not, then pass the race. Indecision is the cause of more money lost at the track then any other factor. There will never be a way to separate these two where you are right 100% of the time. Most people zig and zag with whatever happened last. In effect, they lose more than if they just flipped a coin.

If your handicapping is sharp, bet both to WIN, forget the exactas, and stay on the plus side if your handicapping is right.

[ryesteve]

If you're using figures that you have any confidence in at all, why are you even bothering to look at what the raw times are?

[bisket]

did one go all out to win last? what about works? where are they in their form cycle? lots of other things to look at to decide between. times and speed figs are important, but theres lots of other things to look at.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Pick the one with the best work since the last race.

[magwell]

Go with the one that looks best on the track, [post parade and warm up] if the track is playing fair........

[dansan]

best time!

[markgoldie]

I suppose if the question is one of which of these two factors is more important, I see little argument against the fig being superior. In fact, the initial rationale for creating figs is to take into account variable track speed. Raw times simply don't do that. By now it's perfectly clear that many other factors affect figs. But that is true of final times as well. So in a vacuum of information, the fig must be considered better.

[BIG HIT]

Why i ask was ray talbourt used raw times with spd fig and jim lehane author ofcalibration handicapping.Both are sucessful useing raw times although jim also uses adjustments.Mark find you most interesting as a pro but thanks for all replies

[bisket]

if you look at raw times like i do, you will see that when analyzing times in 1/4 to 1/2 mile splits that theres really not alot of fluctuation in a horses times. you don't have to give as much weight to track variant and bias. viewing replays in important cases as the one that the author of this thread has presented is very helpful also. viewing a speed fig that takes all these things into account is very problematic. when looking at times in splits somethings i do is if the horse held or raced close to the lead at the beginning of the race and his time at the finish is better than his usual finish time then i know the track was probably playing faster than usual. lots of times the beyer fig will back this up and the track variant will also. theres a proponderance of tools in the pps to take variant and bias into consideration when analyzing a horses raw times. by viewing a horses raw times you get an overall view of how a horse runs his races and how he reacts to different pace situations. for instance if you are looking at a chaser. a good horse that everyone is familiar with that was a chaser would be friesan fire. prior to going to the fairgrounds all of his races last year were ran in beginning times for the leader at 22-23 second 1st quarters. 1/2 miles in 45-46 and 3/4 in 110 and change. fire was always only a couple lengths off the leaders pace and finished badly in each race. he gets to fairgrounds and his first race is run in fast opening times and as usual he was close to the leader at the beginning of the race and he finished badly. next race is run in 24 48 112 and fire is his usual 1-2 lengths off the lead and wins. all of fires graded wins at fairgrounds were run in openings of 24 48 112. lots of people are all over him. he's getting great speed figs etc. etc. so if your a speed fig handicapper he's in the tri!! well if your a raw times handicapper your very skeptical. first off he's never ran past 1 1/16 mile and he got a favorable pace in all his wins. when having to run faster at the beginning he always faded at the end. a sure sign of a horse thats not going to like 1 1/4 mile. so your handicapping the derby. you look at what the probable pace leaders times will be. if they are 23 or faster fire is a throwout. handicapping 101 from da bisket. the surest sign of a chaser is he's always in the same position at the beginning of the race no matter what the opening fractions will be. this is a horse you can always get a good read on.

[bisket]

in addition fire has never really beat the track variant in any of his races. another sign that he's not quite grade 1 quality.

[BIG HIT]

Bisket very interesting 101 or not your frist one that has gave example of raw time and how you use it thanks

[bisket]

bigD :cool:

[fmolf]

the only raw time calculations i use is for determing a horses acceleration as in turn time figures.I would choose the horse who has the best secondary characteristics....hot jockey or trainer...better record at this track or distance.....sharper more regular workout tab....ascending beyer pattern or a multitude of ether positive factors that make up a comprehensive handicapping approach.