Live Toteboard Super Chalk Selections For Tues 8-11-09 !!

[Anderon]

I will be posting my Super Chalk plays today live from the toteboard, these selections will Win and Place at an extremely high rate.



Let's Get Profitable !! :ThmbUp:

[markgoldie]

Hey Anderon:

Do you ever check ROI stats or even have a general feeling of how it's going?

[Anderon]

Hi Mark....I post my results and ROI's at the end of everyday in my threads. You can go to my past days threads and see how I've been doing. :)

[markgoldie]

Okay. Sorry. Shows how much attention I've been paying. Apologies.

[Anderon]

No problem at all Mark, your good !! :ThmbUp:

[Anderon]

Suf 2nd....#6 at 1/1

[markgoldie]

Here's what should be a safe chalk bet. Ohio R1 #6 Place

[Anderon]

Suf 2nd....#6 at 1/1

Winner....$3.60....$2.40....$2.20

[Anderon]

Here's what should be a safe chalk bet. Ohio R1 #6 Place

Nice call Mark !! :ThmbUp:

[markgoldie]

Horse jogged but paid $5.40 $2.80 $3.00 More for show than place. Now look guys, I can't keep giving these out if you're going to destroy my prices, LOL Just kidding, of course.

Correction $5.20 to win

[Anderon]

FL 2nd....#5 at 4/5

[Anderon]

Thisl 2nd....#1 at 1/5

[Anderon]

FL 2nd....#5 at 4/5

Ran 4th

[Anderon]

Thisl 2nd....#1 at 1/5

Winner....$2.80....$2.10....$2.10

[Anderon]

Up To Date Live Results !!


Suf 2nd....1st......$3.60....$2.40.....$2.20

FL 2nd....4th

Thisl 2nd..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10



Profits Per $2.00.....+$.40...-$1.50....-$1.70

[Anderon]

Suf 4th....#4 at 1/2

[Anderon]

Suf 4th....#4 at 1/2

Winner....$2.60....$2.40....$2.20

[Anderon]

Up To Date Live Results !!


Suf 2nd....1st......$3.60....$2.40.....$2.20

FL 2nd....4th

Thisl 2nd..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

Suf 4th....1st......$2.60....$2.40.....$2.20



Profits Per $2.00....+$1.00...-$1.10....-$1.50

[markgoldie]

FL R4 #5 California Gold to Place

The probable favorite #1 River City Rebel is wheeling back after only 4 days rest and following a prior layoff. Very possible bounce candidate. Let's ask the more reliable California Gold to run well here.

[Anderon]

Thisl 4th....#5 at 1/2

[Anderon]

Thisl 4th....#5 at 1/2

Winner....$2.80....$2.10....$2.10

[Anderon]

Up To Date Live Results !!


Suf 2nd....1st......$3.60....$2.40.....$2.20

FL 2nd....4th

Thisl 2nd..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

Suf 4th....1st......$2.60....$2.40.....$2.20

Thisl 4th..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10



Profits Per $2.00....+$1.80...-$1.00....-$1.40

[Anderon]

DW 4th....#2 at 1/1

[Anderon]

DW 4th....#2 at 1/1

Winner....$4.00....$4.00....$3.00

[markgoldie]

California Gold finished 3rd due to a horrendous ride in which while taking the lead the jockey allowed the horse to drift 8 wide off the turn thereby losing 3 lengths and the place spot by a half-length. That's racing.

[Anderon]

Up To Date Live Results !!


Suf 2nd....1st......$3.60....$2.40.....$2.20

FL 2nd....4th

Thisl 2nd..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

Suf 4th....1st......$2.60....$2.40.....$2.20

Thisl 4th..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

DW 4th.....1st......$4.00....$4.00.....$3.00



Profits Per $2.00....+$3.80...+$1.00....-$.40

[Anderon]

Thisl 8th....#2 at 3/5

[Anderon]

Thisl 8th....#2 at 3/5

Winner....$2.60....$2.20....$2.10

[Anderon]

Up To Date Live Results !!


Suf 2nd....1st......$3.60....$2.40.....$2.20

FL 2nd....4th

Thisl 2nd..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

Suf 4th....1st......$2.60....$2.40.....$2.20

Thisl 4th..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

DW 4th.....1st......$4.00....$4.00.....$3.00

Thisl 8th..1st......$2.60....$2.20.....$2.10



Profits Per $2.00....+$4.40...+$1.20....-$.30

[Anderon]

DW 7th....#10 at 3/5

[Anderon]

DW 7th....#10 at 3/5

Winner....$3.40....$2.60....No Show Wagering

[Anderon]

Up To Date Live Results !!


Suf 2nd....1st......$3.60....$2.40.....$2.20

FL 2nd....4th

Thisl 2nd..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

Suf 4th....1st......$2.60....$2.40.....$2.20

Thisl 4th..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

DW 4th.....1st......$4.00....$4.00.....$3.00

Thisl 8th..1st......$2.60....$2.20.....$2.10

DW 7th.....1st......$3.40....$2.60......NSW



Profits Per $2.00....+$5.80...+$1.80....-$.30

[Anderon]

Fairmount 6th....#2 at 4/5

[Anderon]

Fairmount 6th....#2 at 4/5

Winner....$3.40....$2.80....$2.20

[Anderon]

Up To Date Live Results !!


Suf 2nd....1st......$3.60....$2.40.....$2.20

FL 2nd....4th

Thisl 2nd..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

Suf 4th....1st......$2.60....$2.40.....$2.20

Thisl 4th..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

DW 4th.....1st......$4.00....$4.00.....$3.00

Thisl 8th..1st......$2.60....$2.20.....$2.10

DW 7th.....1st......$3.40....$2.60......NSW

FM 6th.....1st......$3.40....$2.80.....$2.20



Profits Per $2.00....+$7.20...+$2.60....-$.10

[Anderon]

DW 9th....#8 at 1/5

[Anderon]

DW 9th....#8 at 1/5

Ran 2nd....$2.10....No Show Wagering

[Anderon]

Up To Date Live Results !!


Suf 2nd....1st......$3.60....$2.40.....$2.20

FL 2nd....4th

Thisl 2nd..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

Suf 4th....1st......$2.60....$2.40.....$2.20

Thisl 4th..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

DW 4th.....1st......$4.00....$4.00.....$3.00

Thisl 8th..1st......$2.60....$2.20.....$2.10

DW 7th.....1st......$3.40....$2.60......NSW

FM 6th.....1st......$3.40....$2.80.....$2.20

DW 9th.....2nd...............$2.10......NSW


Profits Per $2.00....+$5.20...+$2.70....-$.10

[Anderon]

DW 10th....#7 at 9/5

[Anderon]

DW 10th....#7 at 9/5

Winner....$4.80....$3.20....$2.20

[Anderon]

Up To Date Live Results !!


Suf 2nd....1st......$3.60....$2.40.....$2.20

FL 2nd....4th

Thisl 2nd..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

Suf 4th....1st......$2.60....$2.40.....$2.20

Thisl 4th..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

DW 4th.....1st......$4.00....$4.00.....$3.00

Thisl 8th..1st......$2.60....$2.20.....$2.10

DW 7th.....1st......$3.40....$2.60......NSW

FM 6th.....1st......$3.40....$2.80.....$2.20

DW 9th.....2nd...............$2.10......NSW

DW 10th....1st......$4.80....$3.20.....$2.20



Profits Per $2.00....+$8.00...+$3.90....+$.10

[Anderon]

Thisl 14th...#2 at 3/5

[Anderon]

Fort Erie 9th....#7 at 1/1

[Anderon]

Thisl 14th...#2 at 3/5

Ran 2nd....$2.20....$2.10

[Anderon]

Fort Erie 9th....#7 at 1/1

Ran 3rd....$2.20

[Anderon]

Up To Date Live Results !!


Suf 2nd....1st......$3.60....$2.40.....$2.20

FL 2nd....4th

Thisl 2nd..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

Suf 4th....1st......$2.60....$2.40.....$2.20

Thisl 4th..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

DW 4th.....1st......$4.00....$4.00.....$3.00

Thisl 8th..1st......$2.60....$2.20.....$2.10

DW 7th.....1st......$3.40....$2.60......NSW

FM 6th.....1st......$3.40....$2.80.....$2.20

DW 9th.....2nd...............$2.10......NSW

DW 10th....1st......$4.80....$3.20.....$2.20

Thisl 14th 2nd...............$2.20.....$2.10

FE 9th.....3rd.........................$2.20


Profits Per $2.00....+$4.00...+$2.10....+$.30

[Anderon]

Yav 8th....#2 at 3/5

[Anderon]

Yav 8th....#2 at 3/5

Winner....$3.60....$2.20....$2.20

[Anderon]

Up To Date Live Results !!


Suf 2nd....1st......$3.60....$2.40.....$2.20

FL 2nd....4th

Thisl 2nd..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

Suf 4th....1st......$2.60....$2.40.....$2.20

Thisl 4th..1st......$2.80....$2.10.....$2.10

DW 4th.....1st......$4.00....$4.00.....$3.00

Thisl 8th..1st......$2.60....$2.20.....$2.10

DW 7th.....1st......$3.40....$2.60......NSW

FM 6th.....1st......$3.40....$2.80.....$2.20

DW 9th.....2nd...............$2.10......NSW

DW 10th....1st......$4.80....$3.20.....$2.20

Thisl 14th 2nd...............$2.20.....$2.10

FE 9th.....3rd.........................$2.20

Yav 8th....1st......$3.60....$2.20.....$2.20


Profits Per $2.00....+$5.60...+$2.30....+$.50

[Anderon]

I've got to go for the rest of the night !!

[Anderon]

Todays Results


14- Selections



10- Wins.............71.4%


2- Place..............85.7%


1- Show..............92.8%






Profits Per $2.00 to Win.......+$5.60...Place...+$2.30...Show...+$.50


Today's ROI per $2.00 to Win...+20.0%...Place...+8.8%...Show..+1.9%

[Anderon]

Last 10 Days Of Posted Results



96- Selections


59- Wins.............61.4%

16 - Place...........78.1%

8- Show..............86.4%




Profits Per $2.00 to Win......+$23.60

Profits Per $2.00 to Place....+$3.30

Profits Per $2.00 to Show....-$9.40


ROI per $2.00 to Win............+12.3%

ROI per $2.00 to Place.. .......+1.7%

ROI per $2.00 to Show........*-5.1%


* 5 races where there was no show wagering !!

[Anderon]

Daily Profits On Super Chalks (Per $2.00 to Win)


7-23......+$6.80

7-27......+$10.80

7-28......-($14.50)

7-29......+$5.80

7-30......+$2.40

8-3........+$.40

8-4........+$.60

8-6........+$2.00

8-10......+$3.70

8-11......+$5.60



Total........+$23.60

[whobet]

California Gold finished 3rd due to a horrendous ride in which while taking the lead the jockey allowed the horse to drift 8 wide off the turn thereby losing 3 lengths and the place spot by a half-length. That's racing.

It's very hard to keep up with Anderon.

He's doing very exceptional handicapping,

he is winning with "Super Chaulk",

That's hard to do,

Great job Anderon

[rusrious]

No doubt, Great Job tonight Anderon, i couldnt wait to get home and check out the results, Awesome, those night tracks are a killer, way to roll with the 7 str8,












like butta



:lol:

[Anderon]

It's very hard to keep up with Anderon.

He's doing very exceptional handicapping,

he is winning with "Super Chaulk",

That's hard to do,

Great job Anderon

Thanks Who, I know your not to bad at it yourself !! :) :ThmbUp:

GO Whobet !!!

[Anderon]

No doubt, Great Job tonight Anderon, i couldnt wait to get home and check out the results, Awesome, those night tracks are a killer, way to roll with the 7 str8,












like butta



:lol:

Well you just need to stay home and not miss out on anything and make some $$$$$ !! :D

Thanks again Dustin !! :cool:

[formula_2002]

A, NICE GOING.

check this out.
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/TopicReader.asp?topic=473&forum=General

[exactaplayer]

sir,
i went to the link and tried to post a reply/question. I had to be logged on etc. I am already on too many boards so I decided to post my query here.
I have been playing some exacta key wheels (1/234/1). After 75 plays I have 29 wins. Maybe this should be in a different thread but ? I know 75 plays is not a large sample but do you have any math like opinions on this small sample? Just chatting for a bit til the races start.
Also, way to go ultimate Anderon. ;)

[formula_2002]

for starters I would want to know the win percentage for all the horses in the races played.
a reasonable start would be to break them down by 5% increments adjusted for take out.
the takeout and breakage can be calculated by summing 1/(odds+1) for each race.
convert each dollar odds to %.
(1/(odds+1))/sum (1/(odds+1) yields the public's win probability(%) for each horse
now calculate each played exacta combination %, based horse's win probability(%).
that is calculated by, A horse win%x((B horse win%)/(1-A horse win%))

summing all of those EXPECTED exacta WINS and comparing that sum to your ACTUAL exacta WINS is a good start to understanding what may be going on.
if a>e and you are making a profit you could be beating the win pool and exacta pool takeouts.
if a>e and you are not making a profit, you could be beating the win pool but not beating the exacta pake out.
if a<e and you are making an exacta pool profit, I think you got very lucky!! :)

[PaceAdvantage]

Once again, I counted FOUR selections that you had posted that you later deleted (there is 10 minute window for editing or deleting).

May I ask why you deleted those four picks?

[Saratoga_Mike]

Once again, I counted FOUR selections that you had posted that you later deleted (there is 10 minute window for editing or deleting).

May I ask why you deleted those four picks?

So he's posting his selections with a few minutes to post and deleting losers within the 10-minute editing/deletion window? If so, how pitiful. Perhaps there's a more innocent explanation - I look forward to it.

[rusrious]

accually, no, the answer is. He posts them, because they fit his thinking, THEN, they slip odds, and no longer FIT for the pick, he deletes, even before the gate opens. I do know this, 100%

Sorry Anderon, had to step in, and set this straight.,

I can recall a few that he deleted, and won,

[banacek]

I mentioned one of the deleted picks to him on today's thread..at Thistledown I think..it actually won.

[Saratoga_Mike]

accually, no, the answer is. He posts them, because they fit his thinking, THEN, they slip odds, and no longer FIT for the pick, he deletes, even before the gate opens. I do know this, 100%

Sorry Anderon, had to step in, and set this straight.,

I can recall a few that he deleted, and won,

This is better handled, imo, by setting odds parameters in the original posting, not deleting the post.

[ryesteve]

I mentioned one of the deleted picks to him on today's thread..at Thistledown I think..it actually won.Not really... the horse finished 2nd, and the post disappeared during the inquiry

[banacek]

Not really... the horse finished 2nd, and the post disappeared during the inquiry

Oh, so the 2 ended up winning but only after the enquiry.

[ryesteve]

accually, no, the answer is. He posts them, because they fit his thinking, THEN, they slip odds, and no longer FIT for the pick, he deletes, even before the gate opens. I do know this, 100%Hell, I'm not even convinced the PICKS are coming before the gate opens, much less the deletions. Most of these posts have a time stamp that matches the race's off time... so theoretically, these posts could be coming in as late as 59 seconds after the race starts. Lord knows when there's any time to process and do a deletion without the race already being underway.

I'm officially not digging any of this anymore...

[Anderon]

I have deleted some posts due to the fact that I get a toteboard change in the gate and my selection no longer qualifies under my strict guidelines. I do play very close to the vest. I also at times make stupid mistakes on my part as I will preload a track in the window to post that I'm currently watching with the horse number and odds and when it's not a play and I'll go look at another track thats going off at virtually the same time and it will be playable. I then go back to the window thinking I've already preloaded that horse and race in the window to post and I'll hit the submit buttom and then go look at another track getting ready to go off and then realize that I didn't change my preloaded horse to the current race and then I delete it. I've done this more times than I'd like to admit. :bang: It does get very hectic for me to keep up with the multiple tracks at times.

Now if I were deleteing post with a 10 minute time frame to spare (which I did not know you had that much time) I would certainly have a better winning average and profits than what I do if I were trying to pull something over on a bunch of very smart horse players on this board that sniffs out every little thing there is to find if someone is not straight up. I have not only deleted losers but also some winners. I know that I deleted 2 winners today as well.

Now to address the issues of what Ryesteve has mentioned on the time stamping. I know I have addressed this before but will be more than happy to do so again. Let's say I post a race with a time stamp 4:02:02 ( I know we don't use the seconds but this is for illustrative purposes) here at Pace and the time stamp from Equibase for the race is 4:01:50. Now let's say that the real time difference between Pace and Equibase's clocks are maybe 20-30 seconds in difference becuase they are not ensync to each other for the exact same time. Now Equibase has a time stamp of the race going off at 4:01 and my post here will show 4:02 and it will look like a past post but in all actuallity it is not by any means, and vise versa. I could make a post at 4:01:50 and Equibase has race off time of 4:02 and it looks like I posted a minute early. I say this because I have looked at my post times here when I posted races and went and looked at Equibase and it showed I was a minute early on the race and I posted it as they were loading into the gate, and once again vise versa as well.

I do play live with a few board members here daily becuase we play the same types of selections and wager virtually the same way. They know when I delete a race because I tell them I did and it's not a playable race anymore. Now Rusrious has been playing with me live virtually everyday for the last 2 weeks or so and knows this as he has mentioned. There are a couple others as well.

I'm a straight up guy who has nothing to prove or try to pull one over on anyone here. I've always posted my results good or bad every single day I post (and I have had some very bad days). Being a toteboard player and posting I admit is somewhat difficult as I try to get that last bit of information just before they leave the gate and then there are times you get delays in the gate or scratches so I'm always trying to wait to the last second, and maybe that's not good for posting in this type of environment. I think you should not be given that much time to delete a post, in fact maybe it should be the other way around. You should be able to post without the 1 minute delay and only be able to delete your post within 1 minute.

If I have offended you or compromised my credabilty to any degree I sincerely apologize to everyone here on PaceAdvantage.

I will say this, If anyone is interested and would like to play live with me on any day that I'm playing, please feel free to let me know and I will invite you in on my live conference with a few other players and you will see that my numbers will speak for themselves as to what I do. :)

[PaceAdvantage]

So he's posting his selections with a few minutes to post and deleting losers within the 10-minute editing/deletion window? If so, how pitiful. Perhaps there's a more innocent explanation - I look forward to it.I didn't say that...I stated facts. It's up to you to interpret them and Anderon to explain them....

[markgoldie]

"I have deleted some posts due to the fact that I get a toteboard change in the gate and my selection no longer qualifies under my strict guidelines." - Quote from Anderon.

Anderon: You seem like a straight shooter but I have to question you about this statement. On your Thurs. thread, you picked a horse at Monmouth (Fiftycentsondollar R4 #5) that I also was following whose price fell drastically at the last minute, causing him to close at 3-5. (The horse had fallen to this price prior to loading). The horse won narrowly in a tough stretch duel. I posted to you that I also liked the horse but I thought the 3-5 was ridiculously low. And I asked if you didn't also think the price was too low.

You replied in post #24, that you did not think the price was too low and that you play your selections regardless of the odds, with the exception that if the horse is 1-5 or 1-9, you might not because then it's not worth it. To my knowledge, your deletions are nowhere near 1-5 or 1-9.

So I'm wondering about this contradiction. ???

Mark

[Anderon]

Hi Mark,

My selections have nothing to do with payoffs of the horse, my selections are based on toteboard patterns and if they hold up to those patterns, that's why I said I'll play it any price unless it's just way to low such as a 1/5 or 1/9 then I may just play them to place or show or not at all. Now some of these smaller tracks have very volatile pools and it is very difficult to get a pattern to hold so I tend not to play them as much (learned that the hard way and still learning). There are a number of things I look for in my pattern but I don't worry about if I'm getting a fair value for a horse, that does not enter into it at all. What I do look for is more of an underlay and not an overlay. I want to know the horse is being played more than he should be not less than he should be. I hope this helps Mark. :)

[markgoldie]

Interesting. Didn't consider that. So you're looking for action ON the horse, rather than receiving a fair-value price. Kind of the reverse of what I look for (meaning fair value) but then again, I'm not a tote-pattern player- more of a purist handicapper who has the nerve to think that he can pick winners without the sanction of the "hot" money. But whatever works.

Mark

[Anderon]

And from what I see on your project Mark your doing nicely at that !! Nice Job !! :ThmbUp:

Everyone has a method to their madness of some sort. I want to wish you well on your project and hope it holds up to continued winners and profits. :)

[Saratoga_Mike]

I didn't say that...I stated facts. It's up to you to interpret them and Anderon to explain them....

It's certainly what I inferred from your post; perhaps it's not what you meant to imply.

[markgoldie]

And from what I see on your project Mark your doing nicely at that !! Nice Job !! :ThmbUp:

Everyone has a method to their madness of some sort. I want to wish you well on your project and hope it holds up to continued winners and profits. :)
Thanks!