P6 for the Everyday Horseplayer

[positive4th]

I'd really be curious to know how many (if any) regular P6 players we have around here........and I guess by regular I mean its a normal fixture in your betting pattern, not just an occasional stab (small or large) that you take when a carryover is huge.

If you do play it regularly, any advice for others on how you approach it and keep it manageable??

[dav4463]

I never play it because I never find six races in a row that I find as playable.

[JustRalph]

i voted never

but I have put a few dollars together with a few friends before

but only a couple of times

[MickJ26]

I'm only a Saturday/Sunday player for the most part.
If I think it's hittable, I'll play between $50-$100. ticket.
If I don't, I'll just play a $2. ticket with all singles.
I've gotten lucky a few times and hit 5/6 on a $2. ticket.

[Java Gold@TFT]

An honest question. Can someone explain to me the dynamic of the P-6 takeout in NY? The take is 16% when there isn't a carryover but 26% when there is. If the carryover is $50k did they already take out the 16% from that and that amount is what's left over? Then on carryover day if $150k gets bet into the pool is the take of 26% just on the $150k wagered that day or is the $50k that was carried over previously also included in that days takeout? The total pool would still be listed as $200k but did they do a double scoop on the carryover? Just curious as it's something I've never understood even if I don't play it unless there is an obscene carryover and then it's only for a $32 ticket or throwing money in with friends to get a bigger ticket.

[FUGITIVE77]

I'd really be curious to know how many (if any) regular P6 players we have around here........and I guess by regular I mean its a normal fixture in your betting pattern, not just an occasional stab (small or large) that you take when a carryover is huge.

If you do play it regularly, any advice for others on how you approach it and keep it manageable??


XANAX

[BUD]

I'm only a Saturday/Sunday player for the most part.
If I think it's hittable, I'll play between $50-$100. ticket.
If I don't, I'll just play a $2. ticket with all singles.
I've gotten lucky a few times and hit 5/6 on a $2. ticket.

That is a cool way. I thought about trying it like that-I think I just may.

Thanks Mate

[positive4th]

An honest question. Can someone explain to me the dynamic of the P-6 takeout in NY? The take is 16% when there isn't a carryover but 26% when there is. If the carryover is $50k did they already take out the 16% from that and that amount is what's left over? Then on carryover day if $150k gets bet into the pool is the take of 26% just on the $150k wagered that day or is the $50k that was carried over previously also included in that days takeout? The total pool would still be listed as $200k but did they do a double scoop on the carryover? Just curious as it's something I've never understood even if I don't play it unless there is an obscene carryover and then it's only for a $32 ticket or throwing money in with friends to get a bigger ticket.

I am pretty sure (though not certain) that the takeout only applies to NEW MONEY ADDED to the pool - - which is why its higher on a Takeout day, b/c $$$ that has already been "taken out of" is being added, so the handle is going up, and charging more for it is a profitable move for the tracks.

So using rough math, if its a $50K carry and 200K in NEW money comes in, the new money loses 26% (so $52K) to takeout, making it 148K, BUT then the 50K is added (so we're back to 198K), 25% for consos are put aside, and the rest is up for grabs (which would be about 150K).

If you want a quick calculation that will give you an idea, usually about 55-60% of the TOTAL POOL (carrover included) is available for 6 of 6 tickets, as the rest goes to takeout and the 5 of 6 pool.

[ManeMediaMogul]

$32 is my favorite ticket...4x2x2 and three singles. I have hit it three times on a $32 ticket and once on a $24 sheet.

On big carryover days I usually syndicate.

One strategy that I use is to ignore the huge carryovers and play a big ticket at a track with second or third highest carryover if available. My theory is the dyed-in-the-wool Pick Six players shoot for the biggest carryover, so there is much less money bet into the secondary carryovers, giving me a better chance to take down the whole pool.

[Rapid Grey]

Small ticket player here as well, usually $16 with three singles and two in the other races. If I'm in a syndicate it's usually for around $100.

A few years ago my friends were live to two horses going in the final leg of a huge carryover at Churchill's fall meet. The payouts were to be $1.5 million or $800K, one was around 5-1, the other was the favorite. Think we ran 3rd and 5th and the pot carried to the next day.

[fmolf]

i find it a lot like pure unadulterated gambling!I agree with the other poster ..in my 35 yrsof playing the horses i cannot remember ever coming across 6 playable races in a row.there fore i would just be guessing.If i ever decided to play i would just bet 2 4 or 6 dollars on phone #'s or birthdays!

[Space Monkey]

I agree with dav and fwolf. Its all about playable races. I'm not going to invest $ on races where you are forced to guess, like mdn 2 yr olds now and mdn turf races where 3/4 of the field has no turf form. I like PIk 3 and 4 betting. I treat it the same way. No bet unless all races fit my criteria. I don't want a multi race ticket where I have to go more than 3 or 4 deep.

[chickenhead]

I play a lot of Pick 6's. They are very difficult.

[turfnsport]

what interesting results so far...More than 80% say never or rarely.

I hope TVG's Tony Alevato sees the thread and finally does away with Pick 6 Central.

[positive4th]

Yeah, I've been a very occasional player, and my thought has always been pretty much the same.

Its an amazingly difficult bet (obviously) that is also amazingly over-rated. MOST players are really only equipped to play small tickets into large carryovers, which isn't super-helpful b/c they'll usually be forced to just cover the most obvious results and cross their fingers. If they hit, so will a whole pile of other tickets like theirs. NOW, if the idea is to find value, to find a price for something that is better than it should be, WHY would you want to construct a wager that everyone else will be?? Its kind of like over-betting a short priced favorite and griping when he runs 2nd.

But for the few players that can afford to chase the P6 daily, there's also not a strong case for doing so. Let's just say that Player X spends $200 per card on the P6 at his favorite track. He is, on an almost daily basis, simply padding that pool and effectively charging himself $200 just to begin playing the races. Why not make the $200 (or whatever amt.) a win bet on your best play for the day?? Sure, there's no huge jackpot, but you'll hit on a much higher rate.

FWIW, I'm more and more convinced that EVEN WITH CARRYOVERS, the P6 is essentially horse racing's answer to progressive-jackpot nickel slot machines in the smoky back-corners of Vegas's dingiest spots.

[DanG]

IMO: The P6 is the worst bet in racing for the under capitalized and / or the inexperienced player. I know there are examples of life changing scores of virtually every bet denomination; but the overwhelming number of plays between $32 and $600 is just setting fire to cash. $600 btw is a very straight forward sequence and is at the low end of the spectrum for reasonable coverage.

There is another thread going where a well intentioned person is asking about playing the bet and I don’t believe he has ever bet racing. It’s the equivalent of skipping basic math to enroll in trigonometry class.

Closing day forced payouts / extreme carry-overs where your fellow player has wiped out the rake + are the exceptions, but in general…it should not be played by most and should REALLY not be played without pooling a groups resources.

If your lucky enough to know +- 3 other like minded players who you trust; it can become one of the most enjoyable, educational and at times lucrative ways to gamble on horses. Once the ground rules are known up front and responsibilities are divided many find it helps they’re overall game beyond this wager when they brainstorm race sequences with group intensity.

In my eyes; the daily double should always be the first step into serial wagering and until that feels like 2nd nature I would never venture into the P3 much less the P4, 5, 6…pick 300. Even the P3 isn’t “1” step more complex then the DD…with each leg of a blind wager the complexity (and expense) goes up exponentially.

[spiketoo]

what interesting results so far...More than 80% say never or rarely.

I hope TVG's Tony Alevato sees the thread and finally does away with Pick 6 Central.

I hope Betfair sees every other TVGsux thread and does away with Tony and TheCrew.

Hijack completed ;)

[fmolf]

IMO: The P6 is the worst bet in racing for the under capitalized and / or the inexperienced player. I know there are examples of life changing scores of virtually every bet denomination; but the overwhelming number of plays between $32 and $600 is just setting fire to cash. $600 btw is a very straight forward sequence and is at the low end of the spectrum for reasonable coverage.

There is another thread going where a well intentioned person is asking about playing the bet and I don’t believe he has ever bet racing. It’s the equivalent of skipping basic math to enroll in trigonometry class.

Closing day forced payouts / extreme carry-overs where your fellow player has wiped out the rake + are the exceptions, but in general…it should not be played by most and should REALLY not be played without pooling a groups resources.

If your lucky enough to know +- 3 other like minded players who you trust; it can become one of the most enjoyable, educational and at times lucrative ways to gamble on horses. Once the ground rules are known up front and responsibilities are divided many find it helps they’re overall game beyond this wager when they brainstorm race sequences with group intensity.

In my eyes; the daily double should always be the first step into serial wagering and until that feels like 2nd nature I would never venture into the P3 much less the P4, 5, 6…pick 300. Even the P3 isn’t “1” step more complex then the DD…with each leg of a blind wager the complexity (and expense) goes up exponentially.
The p6 is a horrible bet even if trying to have some fun.Too difficult to hit and too expensive.Myself and three buddies at saratoga a few years ago decided to play a p4 and each player picked 2 horses per leg!Since every player handicapped with a different methodology we ended up with a 3x3x2x3 ticket with no favorites on it and one second choice that won!we hit and the p4 payed around 2 thous!We have tried it since to no avail!...beginners luck i guess!Excellent post Dan :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[singletax]

I would never play this bet everyday. I prefer the NY or CAL circuit with a two day or more carryover. I usually avoid the weekends because there are more competitive races unless rain will create a lot of scratches reducing the potential choices.

I have not hit the pic-6 but have had a few large 5 of 6 tickets. The closest I've come to hitting was 3 winners with three photo 2nds. I try to stay away from the chalk pic-6s because everybody has the same picks. I usually single 2-3 races and finish spreading the ticket with 2-2-2-2 or 2-2-3 or 2-2-4.

What attracts me is the large payout and it fits into my schedule about 2-3 times a month.

[DanG]

The p6 is a horrible bet even if trying to have some fun.Too difficult to hit and too expensive.
In case I left the wrong impression FM; (it wouldn’t be the first time) I believe the P6 under optimum circumstances is a great wager, but just not for most players. BTW: that’s not meant in a derogatory sense toward the majority. I played the races seriously for almost two decades before I met people who were expert at the wager and I felt like a complete amateur when I saw how they approached it.

Your not only playing an incredibly expensive bet that must stay funded to chase the inevitable dry spells / a very complex wager that requires skill in ticket construction, every imaginable race type, but on major carry over days you are facing the best players racing has to offer. It’s like playing short stacked against Phil Ivey. :eek:

http://images.cafepress.com/image/17196262_400x400.jpg

[fmolf]

In case I left the wrong impression FM; (it wouldn’t be the first time) I believe the P6 under optimum circumstances is a great wager, but just not for most players. BTW: that’s not meant in a derogatory sense toward the majority. I played the races seriously for almost two decades before I met people who were expert at the wager and I felt like a complete amateur when I saw how they approached it.

Your not only playing an incredibly expensive bet that must stay funded to chase the inevitable dry spells / a very complex wager that requires skill in ticket construction, every imaginable race type, but on major carry over days you are facing the best players racing has to offer. It’s like playing short stacked against Phil Ivey. :eek:

http://images.cafepress.com/image/17196262_400x400.jpg
I agree totally... one needs to have a very deep bankroll for this bet and a certain temperament.Neither of which i have :D .I prefer win and exacta betting with the occasional trifecta.I am still amazed at some of the p6 pools at the california tracks and wonder to myself how people can make this bet on such seemingly unpredictable results on the polytrack?All of that money even on non carryover days is impressive and at least a good portion must come from smaller everday players?Please let me know if I am wrong on this?I am assuming the whales and sharks are feasting on the guppies and minnows!

[Robert Fischer]

In my eyes; the daily double should always be the first step into serial wagering and until that feels like 2nd nature I would never venture into the P3 much less the P4, 5, 6…pick 300. Even the P3 isn’t “1” step more complex then the DD…with each leg of a blind wager the complexity (and expense) goes up exponentially.
:ThmbUp:

[W2G]

I'm fully aware that a small ticket P6 play is virtually hopeless, but I nevertheless always play a small ticket when the carryover is newsworthy. Sure the big players welcome this kind of money into the pool, but it is also their worst nightmare to share the payoff or even lose to the small player.

It's also an insurance policy. On a day when your handicapping is nearly flawless, how would it feel to see a giant P6 payout that you don't have because you wanted to save a few bucks?

[jayfree41]

hi all

my profitability in horse racing is EXCLUSIVELY due to the Pick 6. It requires a lot of study and capital.

However, occasionally you can lucky. I parlayed $216 into a $216,000 payday in December 2008.

[Greyfox]

IMO: The P6 is the worst bet in racing for the under capitalized and / or the inexperienced player.


I'm in total agreement. :ThmbUp:
If you want to throw a couple of bucks in that direction when the pool gets high
why not? Your numbers might come in just as much as the syndicates that are playing against you. Simply stated though, your chance of winning it even if you are a brilliant bettor are based on the probabilities of your winning one race by the probablities of the next race by the probabilities of the next and so on.
Start by proving you can hit a Daily Double or a Pick 3 consistently would be my advice. Otherwise, follow DanG's advice above and do not make heavy bets in that direction. Having said that, someone has to win. Maybe your small bet might win.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Two friends from the picnic area at Saratoga would put some money in together on P-6 ticket every day. It was never more than $32. One Travers day they hit a $90,000 P-6 on a $16 ticket. They were semi-handicapping off the program and throwing in the horse with their favorite jockeys or favorite sire. Shit happens sometimes on a small ticket but I'd be better off playing the lottery with those odds. MegaMillions is $170M on Teusday. they will get my $5 for those odds. P-6, not so much without a big carryover.

[PhantomOnTour]

I am in the majority with those who play small tickets and/or big carryovers only, and I think that makes us the big suckers of the pool. On a big carry day our small ticket has about as much chance as those who didn't play it at all. Big P6 players must love me. I have a lil method designed to hit 5 of 6 and only use it on big days (and I never wager more than about $64 total). Never hit 6 of 6 but many 5 of 6 tickets have payed well for me.

[Stillriledup]

I agree with Dan's post 16, you need a decent bankroll to play the Pick 6. My suggestion to people who want to eventually play the Pick 6 is to dominate the Pick 4 and pad your bankroll so that you can have enough money to invest into the Pick 6.

[PhantomOnTour]

I agree with Dan's post 16, you need a decent bankroll to play the Pick 6. My suggestion to people who want to eventually play the Pick 6 is to dominate the Pick 4 and pad your bankroll so that you can have enough money to invest into the Pick 6.
I am starting a movement to suspend your posting priviledges for 3 days for using such a phrase! :lol: Ken Rudulph must be happy!

[Stillriledup]

I am starting a movement to suspend your posting priviledges for 3 days for using such a phrase! :lol: Ken Rudulph must be happy!

Good luck and enjoy! :lol:

[rrpic6]

I'm closing in on 100 Pick 6 wins in my career (not counting using other people's money). Each of those feels like a true conquest, no matter what the payout. Feeling like Beethoven, Monet, Frank Lloyd Wright, etc. for a day makes all the sacrifices and long hours of handicapping in loneliness worthwhile. To me, if I did not have success at this Holy Grail of horseplayers, I really felt that I'd wasted 20 years of my life grinding away at $1 exactas and $2 daily doubles. My comfort zone in these plays lies somewhere in the $64 to $360 range, tho I did hit a miracle $9K win at Lone Star in '97 on a $16 ticket.

I do however lose sleep when missing out on "gimmes" like this past Sunday at Hollywood. $5500 for 6 logical horses (really 7 due to the dead heat) really burns me up when I only get 5.
Hollywood Park (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:%20byTrack%28%27Hollywood%20Park%27%29;) 4 Pick-6 (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:%20byPool%28%27Pick-6%27%29;) $2.00 1+4+5/6+9/4/2+7/1+2+5/2+10 $144.00 $144.40. How 'bout that 40 cent profit for 5!

RR

[Stillriledup]

I'm closing in on 100 Pick 6 wins in my career (not counting using other people's money). Each of those feels like a true conquest, no matter what the payout. Feeling like Beethoven, Monet, Frank Lloyd Wright, etc. for a day makes all the sacrifices and long hours of handicapping in loneliness worthwhile. To me, if I did not have success at this Holy Grail of horseplayers, I really felt that I'd wasted 20 years of my life grinding away at $1 exactas and $2 daily doubles. My comfort zone in these plays lies somewhere in the $64 to $360 range, tho I did hit a miracle $9K win at Lone Star in '97 on a $16 ticket.

I do however lose sleep when missing out on "gimmes" like this past Sunday at Hollywood. $5500 for 6 logical horses (really 7 due to the dead heat) really burns me up when I only get 5.
Hollywood Park (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:%20byTrack%28%27Hollywood%20Park%27%29;) 4 Pick-6 (http://javascript%3Cb%3E%3C/b%3E:%20byPool%28%27Pick-6%27%29;) $2.00 1+4+5/6+9/4/2+7/1+2+5/2+10 $144.00 $144.40. How 'bout that 40 cent profit for 5!

RR


This pick 6 was a blink away from paying 500k. If the Mandella horse loses and the 20-1 filly wins the stake (a few more strides she's in front) this thing pays boxcars. Personally, i lose sleep when i miss the 100k+ payouts and not the 5k variety. But, i know how you feel, when you are betting 144, this is one that you can't let get away.

That DH race turned into a race where there was no speed, and the 1 and 4 just stacked up the field behind a slow pace and the 6 and 7 never got into the flow. Cedeno on the 6 should have put his horse in the race more, but he got away last and wasn't able to make up the ground. The pace profile of that race was the downfall of a few who went 2 deep using the 6 and 7.

I see you used the 2 and 7? Refresh my memory, who was the 2 and why did you use him instead of the 1?

[KingChas]

On big carryover days I usually syndicate.



The only way to go.
If they want to make a pick-6 playable for the weekend warrior(non-pro),
They should have a $10 ticket ala the lottery were you get to play a total of 15 horses in the 6 races any way you choose with a betting slip.
I could get into that. ;)
No I am not Frankie S..................... :D

[rrpic6]

This pick 6 was a blink away from paying 500k. If the Mandella horse loses and the 20-1 filly wins the stake (a few more strides she's in front) this thing pays boxcars. Personally, i lose sleep when i miss the 100k+ payouts and not the 5k variety. But, i know how you feel, when you are betting 144, this is one that you can't let get away.

That DH race turned into a race where there was no speed, and the 1 and 4 just stacked up the field behind a slow pace and the 6 and 7 never got into the flow. Cedeno on the 6 should have put his horse in the race more, but he got away last and wasn't able to make up the ground. The pace profile of that race was the downfall of a few who went 2 deep using the 6 and 7.

I see you used the 2 and 7? Refresh my memory, who was the 2 and why did you use him instead of the 1?

The #2 was coming off almost a year layoff, but was trained by Bruce Headley and had 4 bullet workouts, along with a positive rider switch to Smith from Solis. The #1 was usable, as he had 3 races with increasing speed figures. I did not use him for a few reasons: is 6 years old, ran against only cal-breds, and had Atkinson aboard.

RR

[Stillriledup]

The #2 was coming off almost a year layoff, but was trained by Bruce Headley and had 4 bullet workouts, along with a positive rider switch to Smith from Solis. The #1 was usable, as he had 3 races with increasing speed figures. I did not use him for a few reasons: is 6 years old, ran against only cal-breds, and had Atkinson aboard.

RR

Oh, ok, i know what horse you used, it was that deep closer. I had him ranked 4th. The Atkinson horse was dangerous because if no one went to the lead, this horse could fall on the lead and just hold on. I liked the 2 also, but didn't think he would get the pace setup he needed.

[FrankieFigs]

Never have played the Pick 6. Don't have the bankroll to really attack it seriously, so I just stick to other wagers.

[HWright98]

I posted this in the author thread, but it relates here too. Has anybody ever read "How to WIN the PICK 6: Horse Racing's Big $$$ Payout" by Steven Kolb? All of the reviews seem really good; but I thought I'd ask a more trusted source in the people here.

[appistappis]

I'm happy hitting the pick one. :)

[carlonr]

i find it a lot like pure unadulterated gambling!I agree with the other poster ..in my 35 yrsof playing the horses i cannot remember ever coming across 6 playable races in a row.there fore i would just be guessing.If i ever decided to play i would just bet 2 4 or 6 dollars on phone #'s or birthdays!

What makes the Pick6 so popular is it is usually a combination of handicapping a few of the more playable races and "hoping for the best" in a few other races. Racing involves luck any way you slice it. The best handicappers are still at the mercy of "old lady luck" when it comes to things like a horse getting spooked in the stretch, a far inferior jockey/horse bumping into an obvious winner (early in the race) and costing the best horse the win, the list could go on ad infinitum.

[Actor]

I buy one $2 ticket, a single in each race, give it to the wife, tell her it's a lottery and she can keep the money if it hits. :)