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pandy
08-09-2009, 12:37 AM
Well, it's official, harness racing's greatest race is now one of the worst races of the year. 3 years in a row the chalk marches to the front early, no one else leaves, and there is NO excitement at any point in the race. They made it so the horseman can choose their post if they win the elimination (so they try), but now the best horse gets the inside and jogs. The drivers on the outside have been asleep for the last 3 years. How do you not leave for 1.5 million when everyone knows that speed rules!

The track is speed favoring, the bikes are speed favoring, the times are ridiculous. This once great race, which was run in heats, and used to be amazing, is now a joke.

LottaKash
08-09-2009, 01:06 AM
Yeah Bob, don't ya just hate it when the best horse in the race wins, in his own style of running, and no one goes after him because they know it would be sheer suicide to do so....Sure, I am just being silly, but, in the end, if you take away the "titlle" of the race, it just becomes another plain old case of the best horse winning at the lowest price available....Just like any old race that you may see any old day of the week....Hambo or no Hambo...

I don't believe that most of the other races on the card were that boring at all...It wasn't like "all" the odds on horses won all the races or even wire to wire, at that....I thought there were some pretty exciting and competitive races won and lost by all sorts of scenarios on the day...

Heats or no heats, I just think that "Muscle Hill" proved that he is in a "class" of his own, and a horse for all time, and he proved to be what most thought would be true on this day, and in a a big way.....He never showed anything to disuade me of that fact.... Some people were talking as if he was some kind of "vulnerable" favorite and that he should somehow be attacked in the betting pools....Sure a winning odds-on favorite is boring, I guess, even when it is in the "Hambo"...Maybe next year it will be different....

I just hope next year there will still be a "Meadowlands"....

best,

botster
08-09-2009, 08:50 AM
Well, it's official, harness racing's greatest race is now one of the worst races of the year. 3 years in a row the chalk marches to the front early, no one else leaves, and there is NO excitement at any point in the race. They made it so the horseman can choose their post if they win the elimination (so they try), but now the best horse gets the inside and jogs. The drivers on the outside have been asleep for the last 3 years. How do you not leave for 1.5 million when everyone knows that speed rules!

The track is speed favoring, the bikes are speed favoring, the times are ridiculous. This once great race, which was run in heats, and used to be amazing, is now a joke.

I have to say this was the most boring Hambo that I have witnessed going back twenty years now.I couldn't believe Mike Lachance was the only one that left hard with his colt, and he has all kind of gaiting and head issues.Mike babbied this colt around the track in the elims last week,but at least had the guts to try to leave hard and make it resemble a race before he broke.
One of the two horses I keyed on here 60-1 CHANCELLOR left, but for some unknown reason didn't advance up any closer than fourth or fifth on the outside to put pressure on MUSCLE,instead while still parked at the 3/4's he finally gained cover behind #5 who didn't even trot one step from that point on.CHANCELLOR had to go three wide and wound up being outgamed for the show spot to a tripsitter for a nice payday FOR HIS CONNECTIONS, in what I would call a tremendous effort by him.

The track was all speed, just about all day, with the top horses in the game just taking advantage being up close to the pace AND GOING INSANE FRACTIONS. It was actually one of the more cooler days for the Hambo, that I could recall, WHICH MAKES ME SCRATCH MY HEAD even more.Humidity was not really a factor and most of the horses were not showing the signs of it being a factor either before and after the races.

I should add in one other comment.The horse CINDARELLA GUY who finished third from the Tracy Brainard barn int the 11th race yesterday, was noticeably very lame after his race, in where he finished third.Sometimes "tying up" would be the cause of this, but this horse raced a very good mile on a day when it was fairly dry, and cool,so lame is the call here.

Until Next Time...

pandy
08-09-2009, 09:00 AM
They really have to change the draw, just have all owners draw a post out of a pill box, giving the best horse the rail is a joke.

The weirdest race of the day was Noble Falcon, he goes :25.3 to the quarter (:53.2 half) and wins easily, no one gains in the stretch! This race alone is an example of how the speed and the bikes have ruined the sport. Noble Falcon should have crawled home but speed carries too well with the super bikes.

botster
08-09-2009, 09:09 AM
They really have to change the draw, just have all owners draw a post out of a pill box, giving the best horse the rail is a joke.

The weirdest race of the day was Noble Falcon, he goes :25.3 to the quarter (:53.2 half) and wins easily, no one gains in the stretch! This race alone is an example of how the speed and the bikes have ruined the sport. Noble Falcon should have crawled home but speed carries too well with the super bikes.

Something needs to be done with the draw, that is for sure.

I have a feeling, it won't be long before it's carded just as "another race" at night, just like every other million dollar race at the Meads...NO JOKE!

OffNPacing
08-09-2009, 11:15 AM
No offense, but shouldn't a sign of a bias be helpful for handicappers??

I personally look for a bias. I could care less personally about how "Exciting" a race is or what kind of bikes the drivers use. I personally care about winning. If its a hobby, understandably you want an exciting race, but for somebody who handicaps and bets on the races at hand, I don't care how much they win by, as long as I win my wager. And in my opinion, a bias helps!!

Anybody agree or disagree??

pandy
08-09-2009, 11:38 AM
I personally prefer honest tracks, but as far as betting, I'm interested in the sport for both reasons, one is to bet and the other is as a fan of racing. I think a lot of people fall into that category, which is the reason why the attendance is high when a great horse is racing.

From a marketing perspective, a speed bias hurts the sport because it makes the races less exciting. So while it may be good for you, or a few cagey bettors who take advantage of the bias, in the long run it slowly but surely aids to the downfall of the sport. If you like betting harness racing and would like to continue to bet harness racing, you need the sport to thrive.

A yawner like yesterday's Hambo, the third straight boring Hambo, is a bad omen for the sport, in my opinion. This is supposed to be the sport's marquee race and for 3 years in a row the favorite took the lead on the first turn and wired the field and no one left the gate or challenged at any point. People who love the Hambletonian should be seriously concerned about this.

The Kentucky Derby gives thoroughbred racing a huge boost. Without it, the sport's decline would be much greater than it already is. These marquee races are important. Let's not forget that the Hambletonian is the only harness race that is shown on national tv (NBC).

Pacingguy
08-09-2009, 11:43 AM
Well, it's official, harness racing's greatest race is now one of the worst races of the year. 3 years in a row the chalk marches to the front early, no one else leaves, and there is NO excitement at any point in the race. They made it so the horseman can choose their post if they win the elimination (so they try), but now the best horse gets the inside and jogs. The drivers on the outside have been asleep for the last 3 years. How do you not leave for 1.5 million when everyone knows that speed rules!



The Oaks was just as bad. The four elimination winners had the inside posts and they went around the track all together in front until the stretch when the leader tired. Three of the heat winners were there at the end.


I have been arguing this on my blog for a while now. We need to change the rules for the Hambo and the Oaks so it was more like the Battle of Brandywine. No eliminations. Top ten seasonal money earners race in the final (main event); next ten race in one consolation; next ten in a second consolation. Enter and you don't get in? Your substaining payments are refunded. Get in, your starting fee depends on which race you get into. If they did this with the Hambo, you could have had a final worth only a million, the first consolation worth $350,000 and the second consolation worth $150,000. Everyone goes through an open draw and you have three competetive races with a dash for the cash.

What we have now is so contrary to logic. Would we have an Open Handicap with the best horses drawing for the inside? Nope, yet we do it here. A great horse will win regardless of the post position and if the racing gods are not kind, they will bounce back and show their class the next start.

botster
08-09-2009, 11:54 AM
No offense, but shouldn't a sign of a bias be helpful for handicappers??

I personally look for a bias. I could care less personally about how "Exciting" a race is or what kind of bikes the drivers use. I personally care about winning. If its a hobby, understandably you want an exciting race, but for somebody who handicaps and bets on the races at hand, I don't care how much they win by, as long as I win my wager. And in my opinion, a bias helps!!

Anybody agree or disagree??

O N. P. no offense taken...You make a legit argument, no doubt for some.The problem here exists in the short prices they result in,and the edge I lose, because of the bias.Other factors in which the GP very rarely catch, when investing their money, don't play a factor for me as much anymore.It becomes much too obvious for the average player now to win on occasion more than they have done in years past.I am NOT putting you in that category, because I do not know you,but that is my opinion.

These trainers today are racing their steads on substances that cause these horses to go a much faster rate and even the top caliber horses are coming back cripples after they race.I had mentioned earlier about CINDARELLA GUY in whom was barely able to return on his long journey back to the M1 paddock yesterday.Pain Killers in abundance are being used, playing havoc with the bias.A lethal combination of preracing today has hurt my ROI drastically.

LottaKash
08-09-2009, 12:19 PM
It's funny how last year "Deweycheatumandhow" was the darling of all, yet this year we have a colt that is probably the equal or greater than Dewey, and this year we all find it boring....go figure....

And as for nobody making any moves on the Muscle Hill, they couldn't, that was the fastest they had gone in their whole racing careers....The One Horse that had the best shot at Muscle, was the 2 and he struggled every step of the way to keep up with the leader, so how were any other of the lesser horses supposed to leave out of there when they didn't have the ability to bang heads with the new "champ" in the first place....Muscle Hill didn't have to give any more than he had to in his previous races, it is as simple as that, I think....

I guess Rachel Alexandra was just as boring this year too.....

How about "Secretariat" or "Bret Hanover" I guess they were boring as well...heehee

I don't understand some of you guys at all....You witnessed a "great" horse, winning the greatest race in "trotting" and he still doesn't get your respect, and you find his greatness "boring"....What do you want, or did you expect ?....I was not surprised at all....

Sea Biscuit
08-09-2009, 12:22 PM
No offense, but shouldn't a sign of a bias be helpful for handicappers??

I personally look for a bias. I could care less personally about how "Exciting" a race is or what kind of bikes the drivers use. I personally care about winning. If its a hobby, understandably you want an exciting race, but for somebody who handicaps and bets on the races at hand, I don't care how much they win by, as long as I win my wager. And in my opinion, a bias helps!!

Anybody agree or disagree??

OffNPacing you are a very wise man. I agree with you 100%.

There is nothing more exciting than cashing a good ticket. I don’t need more excitement other than that.

After all this is a betting game. The bottom line is profit and everything else is secondary.

On a big day like the Hambo, I am sure there were a lot of new faces at the track and they too love to cash a ticket on their first day of racing. I am sure there were a lot of happy faces at the track because they were able to cash their tickets even if it happened to be a ticket with only 30 cents to a dollar profit.

Believe you me that when a heavy favorite like Muscle Hill wins a big race like that it is good for racing excitment or no excitiment.

Do you really think when Mine That Bird won the Kentucky Derby at 50-1, it was good for racing. Most definitely not.


Sea Biscuit.

OffNPacing
08-09-2009, 12:37 PM
Well Said LK and SB. I agree. It was a 1 horse race, it happens from time to time. You think when Zenyatta Destroys the G1 field this weekend for her 12th straight victory, that the race will be boring? Speed is not dominant all the time. Sometimes at The Meadowlands, a Pace-Setter doesn't win all night. No way can anybody run around saying a race like that was "Boring", or that Speed is the *All Mighty*.

Bias' do exist, as to how the track is running that night. Sometimes, it is less powerful than other times. Yes Muscle Hill did take advantage of the existing Bias last night, but that wasn't the reason he won. I mean come on, horse had lost once in his career coming in, that was as a 2 YO. All wins this year were by a ton. It was evident the horse was going to ROMP the field. Every handicapper saw it, hence the odds.


As far as the *VALUE* goes, thats just ridiculous. Some nights, Meadowlands doesn't have a winner less than $8.00. There is value from time to time, but when there is a HUGE day as Hambo Day, the best handicappers spend good money on their wagers, and the odds sink. Not to mention the best horses are racing, and you get fields in which the race is a 1 horse race.


Just a few days ago, August 6th, there were 3 winners over $20.00. On the 5th there were 3 Winners over $10.00. There is value out there, and just because the horse that wins the Hambo was such low of odds, and he set the pace, doesn't mean the value isn't there, or Speed is *The way of the sport*, or that the sport has gotten boring. If you believe this, why complain?? Making money should be the way of handicappers. Winning seems to be easier when races come up such as this. Ya the winner may pay $2.80, but thats more than the bet cost, and if its that obvious to you, why look elsewhere for value?

As far as the harming of the animals. I will agree, the sport has become of substance, and drugs. Bute,Lasix,Ace, and other drugs are being used to help the horses, which in the end hurts them. I agree 100%.


Just my take.......

botster
08-09-2009, 12:44 PM
[QUOTE=LottaKash]It's funny how last year "Deweycheatumandhow" was the darling of all, yet this year we have a colt that is probably the equal or greater than Dewey, and this year we all find it boring....go figure....

And as for nobody making any moves on the Muscle Hill, they couldn't, that was the fastest they had gone in their whole racing careers....The One Horse that had the best shot at Muscle, was the 2 and he struggled every step of the way to keep up with the leader, so how were any other of the lesser horses supposed to leave out of there when they didn't have the ability to bang heads with the new "champ" in the first place....Muscle Hill didn't have to give any more than he had to in his previous

Why did Mike leave then? Lachance did what a driver is supposed to do in a race like the Hambo.Andy training THE CHANCELLOR himself, wasn't driving to get in the top two spots IMO, AT ALL!

We both agree MUSCLE answered the question, of whom was the better horse between himself and the #2.I believe wholeheartedly that THE CHANCELLOR, would have given MUSCLE all he could handle, if he was sitting the same trip however.

Sea Biscuit
08-09-2009, 12:58 PM
It's funny how last year "Deweycheatumandhow" was the darling of all, yet this year we have a colt that is probably the equal or greater than Dewey, and this year we all find it boring....go figure....

And as for nobody making any moves on the Muscle Hill, they couldn't, that was the fastest they had gone in their whole racing careers....The One Horse that had the best shot at Muscle, was the 2 and he struggled every step of the way to keep up with the leader, so how were any other of the lesser horses supposed to leave out of there when they didn't have the ability to bang heads with the new "champ" in the first place....Muscle Hill didn't have to give any more than he had to in his previous races, it is as simple as that, I think....

I guess Rachel Alexandra was just as boring this year too.....

How about "Secretariat" or "Bret Hanover" I guess they were boring as well...heehee

I don't understand some of you guys at all....You witnessed a "great" horse, winning the greatest race in "trotting" and he still doesn't get your respect, and you find his greatness "boring"....What do you want, or did you expect ?....I was not surprised at all....

You are right Lk. It was a treat to watch MH win the race. He is a trotting machine. 1:50:1 wow. Only one horse has been able to duplicate such a feat (I think) and he was from the aged category which was Lucky Jim.

Congrats to the connections of Muscle Hill

Sea Biscuit.

pandy
08-09-2009, 01:00 PM
The Oaks was just as bad. The four elimination winners had the inside posts and they went around the track all together in front until the stretch when the leader tired. Three of the heat winners were there at the end.


I have been arguing this on my blog for a while now. We need to change the rules for the Hambo and the Oaks so it was more like the Battle of Brandywine. No eliminations. Top ten seasonal money earners race in the final (main event); next ten race in one consolation; next ten in a second consolation. Enter and you don't get in? Your substaining payments are refunded. Get in, your starting fee depends on which race you get into. If they did this with the Hambo, you could have had a final worth only a million, the first consolation worth $350,000 and the second consolation worth $150,000. Everyone goes through an open draw and you have three competetive races with a dash for the cash.

What we have now is so contrary to logic. Would we have an Open Handicap with the best horses drawing for the inside? Nope, yet we do it here. A great horse will win regardless of the post position and if the racing gods are not kind, they will bounce back and show their class the next start.

That's a good idea. Something has to be changed with the post position draw or I doubt very much that you'll see NBC cover this race for much longer.

LottaKash
08-09-2009, 01:08 PM
[We both agree MUSCLE answered the question, of whom was the better horse between himself and the #2.I believe wholeheartedly that THE CHANCELLOR, would have given MUSCLE all he could handle, if he was sitting the same trip however.

Dan, I don't understand where you are getting that from ?...."The Chancellor's" only win this year, in 7-tries, came from a race with an opening panel of 29:1 and a 57:1 half......In his last race, facing Muscle Hill, he took the lead in an opening split of 27:2 and a juicy 55:1, so that was a very worthy effort, and his best try to date...But, when it came to crunch time, when it counted the most, The Muscle said "toodle-oo" to the whole bunch of em.....Plus the fact that, the trainer Greg Peck, had Muscle Hill change his racing style in his last race, to have his horse familiar and ready to race in another dimension if need be....The "need-be" never materialized...I believe that the others were finally convinced of just who "Muscle Hill really is, and decided to save their horses for a different kind of race....The race for "MINOR" spoils...That makes the most sense to me....

best,

DeanT
08-09-2009, 01:15 PM
That was the best Hambo I have seen in a bunch of years because of the presence of the best 3YO trotting colt that was head and shoulders above the rest. He could have started from Paddock Park and won.

There were no other leavers because it was suicide, and the speed of the race was indicative of that. You can not challenge what you can't catch.

botster
08-09-2009, 01:37 PM
That was the best Hambo I have seen in a bunch of years because of the presence of the best 3YO trotting colt that was head and shoulders above the rest. He could have started from Paddock Park and won.

There were no other leavers because it was suicide, and the speed of the race was indicative of that. You can not challenge what you can't catch.

Mike left, because he thought he was giving his colt a shot.This was a horse he drove with EXTREME CAUTION in the elims, because of his breaking tendencies.When the big money is on the line you are suppose to drive accordingly.

LottaKash
08-09-2009, 01:50 PM
Mike left, because he thought he was giving his colt a shot.This was a horse he drove with EXTREME CAUTION in the elims, because of his breaking tendencies.When the big money is on the line you are suppose to drive accordingly.

Dan, I agree with you about the competitiveness issue, it is just that, in my experience with 3yo trotters that are prone to breaking of their stride, that the most untimely thing to do with this type is to be aggressive when going after the greatest horse of "it's" respecive time....So, he did what he usually does, as with any other break-prone horse will do under severe pressure, he broke....In addition to Mike LaChance, Dave Miller had the same problems with that one...That is too bad, as I believe that Hot Shot Blue Chip has much potential as a racehorse, but, I think that, the trainer should be the most held to task, for this horse's failures...

best,

DeanT
08-09-2009, 01:52 PM
Yep, he was giving his horse a shot, I have no problem with that. But he was not leaving to take a lead in 27 against MH. That would have been nuts, as I am sure you agree. He was leaving for a decent position.

As for going head to head against MH I would submit an owner, or trainer, or driver or two thought before the race, or in previous races they could. From here on out I think we will be seeing a whole lot of grabbing leather. This aint Glidemaster, or Dewey, or Donato, or Windsongs Legacy, this is Muscle Hill.

badcompany
08-09-2009, 02:08 PM
The drivers on the outside have been asleep for the last 3 years. How do you not leave for 1.5 million when everyone knows that speed rules!



The purse size tends to make the drivers of the lesser horses drive more conservatively because they don't want to be completely out of the money.

Third money in this race was 180K.

LottaKash
08-09-2009, 02:11 PM
The purse size tends to make the drivers of the lesser horses drive more conservatively because they don't want to be completely out of the money.

Third money in this race was 180K.

BadCo, that about says it all, I think......At least in this race, this year....:jump:

best,

Pacingguy
08-09-2009, 02:12 PM
[QUOTE=LottaKash]It's funny how last year "Deweycheatumandhow" was the darling of all, yet this year we have a colt that is probably the equal or greater than Dewey, and this year we all find it boring....go figure....

QUOTE]

I am not disputing how good Dewey was and Muscle Hill is. I am happy to see such great horses race. My problem is we should let them exhibit their greatness on even terms with their peers, not giving them an advantage over the rest of the horses in a race. If he draws the rail fair and square it is one thing; to give him the rail is another. Think of it in terms of the runners. It would be like all the fillies in a stake race carrying 121 pounds except Rachel Alexandra; she would get to carry 115 pounds. It makes no sense.

botster
08-09-2009, 02:15 PM
Yep, he was giving his horse a shot, I have no problem with that. But he was not leaving to take a lead in 27 against MH. That would have been nuts, as I am sure you agree. He was leaving for a decent position.

As for going head to head against MH I would submit an owner, or trainer, or driver or two thought before the race, or in previous races they could. From here on out I think we will be seeing a whole lot of grabbing leather. This aint Glidemaster, or Dewey, or Donato, or Windsongs Legacy, this is Muscle Hill.

Lachance DID, indeed try to leave for the the top.Why would you leave from the four hole and not?..Especially when the two and three were already taking their respective positions around the first turn.

DeanT
08-09-2009, 02:27 PM
Lachance DID, indeed try to leave for the the top.Why would you leave from the four hole and not?..Especially when the two and three were already taking their respective positions around the first turn.

Sure he did, but that was because a lot of people thought that MH would not push the rail. Horses leaved against Beach as well many times because Paul would quarter pole. All I am saying is that once MH goes to the lead in 27 and backs that up with a 27.4 you are not going to see anyone going to the top, they are looking for a spot and being snatched up just like Mike did.

wilderness
08-09-2009, 03:34 PM
[QUOTE=LottaKash]It's funny how last year
I am not disputing how good Dewey was and Muscle Hill is. I am happy to see such great horses race. My problem is we should let them exhibit their greatness on even terms with their peers, not giving them an advantage over the rest of the horses in a race. If he draws the rail fair and square it is one thing; to give him the rail is another. Think of it in terms of the runners. It would be like all the fillies in a stake race carrying 121 pounds except Rachel Alexandra; she would get to carry 115 pounds. It makes no sense.

Pacingguy,
Perhaps we should eliminate the mobile starting gate (I'm sure that would go over well with the masses and the media) and assign "foot" handicaps as we used to in North America, and they still do in both some Euro and Oceanic races.

EX:
Because Muscle hill was so much better than the rest?
He'd be required to start 120-feet or more behind the others?

I'm sure both the owners who make sustaining payments to the race and the Hambletonian Society whom accepts the sustaining payments (to assure the success of the race) would vomit at the reduced entires and/or sustaining payments ;)

wilderness
08-09-2009, 03:36 PM
The Oaks was just as bad. The four elimination winners had the inside posts and they went around the track all together in front until the stretch when the leader tired. Three of the heat winners were there at the end.


I have been arguing this on my blog for a while now. We need to change the rules for the Hambo and the Oaks so it was more like the Battle of Brandywine. No eliminations. Top ten seasonal money earners race in the final (main event); next ten race in one consolation; next ten in a second consolation. Enter and you don't get in? Your substaining payments are refunded. Get in, your starting fee depends on which race you get into. If they did this with the Hambo, you could have had a final worth only a million, the first consolation worth $350,000 and the second consolation worth $150,000. Everyone goes through an open draw and you have three competetive races with a dash for the cash.

What we have now is so contrary to logic. Would we have an Open Handicap with the best horses drawing for the inside? Nope, yet we do it here. A great horse will win regardless of the post position and if the racing gods are not kind, they will bounce back and show their class the next start.

It sure is easy to spend other people's money ;)

wilderness
08-09-2009, 03:41 PM
First, I'd like to thank everybody at the Meadowlands, Hambletonian Society,
the many other organizations and the participating horsemen (at all levels)
for putting on a superb show.

The extensive presentation and interviews by Greg Peck were quite
honorable, dedicated and even touching.

You may view a post-race interview here:
http://www.youtube.com/ustrotting#play/all/uploads-all/0/1S2MnMwSJAo

Not sure if it was the Meadowlands website video or the NBC coverage, which
provided some reflection by Ray Schnittker, however even that interview was
enjoyable.

The miscall of the winner of Hambo Oaks by the NBC folks was a
disappointment, however considering their T-Bred focus and as bad as the
error was, it's excusable (considering the lack of coverage of harness
racing by the major networks). Whomever advised Donna Barton is where the
finger should be pointed. The problem lay in what ever camera position NBC
had for the replay.
When I was watching the race, it was clear to me that Broadway Schooner had won the race, however the replay shown (by NBC) made Raising Rachel appear the winner.

Perhaps NBC needs more coverage experience of harness races in the future
to avoid these types of mistakes?

wilderness
08-09-2009, 03:47 PM
Did any of you happen to catch the early non-betting race of the four Harness Horse Youth Foundation Kids being seated with their favorite drivers?

The post-race interview with the 13YO girl that won the race, whilst
standing next to the composed John Campbell, was quite enjoyable.

What a thrill for these kids on Hambo Day and with 25k in attendance.

Overcall
08-09-2009, 10:20 PM
Pandy said

"They made it so the horseman can choose their post if they win the elimination (so they try), but now the best horse gets the inside and jogs. "

I miss heat racing....but alternately... elim winners should pick their post. Its
better for the bettor.. The real tradjedy was Well Said winning his elim, then
rewarded with post 10. What are they thinking at Mea?

How many heat races left? Jug, Ky fut, Flamboro 3yocp?

LottaKash
08-09-2009, 11:19 PM
Pandy said

"They made it so the horseman can choose their post if they win the elimination (so they try), but now the best horse gets the inside and jogs. "

I miss heat racing....but alternately... elim winners should pick their post. Its
better for the bettor.. The real tradjedy was Well Said winning his elim, then
rewarded with post 10. What are they thinking at Mea?

How many heat races left? Jug, Ky fut, Flamboro 3yocp?

Luck of the Draw....The way it should be, imo....

best,

Pacingguy
08-10-2009, 07:11 AM
I did a quick study since they eliminated the heat racing in the Hambo and allowed heat winners to pick their post positions in 1997. Since then the Hambletonian final was won by a heat winner 76.92% of the time. Granted there are multiple heat winners each year, but this shows you how you basically are making the final a walkover. We may as well just invite the heat winners back the following week to race the final and let the others move on to their next race.

I had earlier suggested changing the rules to make the race conditions like the Battle of Brandywine. Obviously if they did that, it would not take place for a three years as the conditions for 2010 and 2011 have already been published. Owners can then decide whether or not to enter. How would it be received? Well the Battle draws at least 30 horses each year; I think there would be more interest in the Hambo by horsemen than there is now. For the Battle of Brandywine all horses pay $3,750 to get to entry box. If you draw into the $500,000 race you pay an extra $5,000 to start; for the $200,000 consolation you pay $2,000 to start; for the $100,000 consolation you pay $1,000 to start. If you enter but don't get to race you get your original $3,750 refunded. If you don't enter, then you loose your substaining payments. Don't think horsemen would like this? Do the same with the Hambletonian except you don't refund the early payments; only those paid the current year, that means you would loose only your $25 nomination and $500 2yo substaining payment. Rather than less horsemen going to give it a try, you will have more interest in this race as smaller breeders will give it a try.

Eliminations are a farce. We put such a pittance in the purse that we basically 'rig' the draw of the final to give horsemen an incentive to win. If we are unwilling to make the elimination purses meaningful enough in themselves, then let's get rid of them. Either allow the top money earners to win or go to divisions like some of the races are run. The current way does not work. Plain and simple.

wilderness
08-10-2009, 10:38 AM
I did a quick study since they eliminated the heat racing in the Hambo and allowed heat winners to pick their post positions in 1997. Since then the Hambletonian final was won by a heat winner 76.92% of the time. Granted there are multiple heat winners each year, but this shows you how you basically are making the final a walkover. We may as well just invite the heat winners back the following week to race the final and let the others move on to their next race.

"Howard Cossell, Wide World of Sports, 'Excuse me Mohammed, your stats are slightly flawed!' "

In the previous 70 Hambletonian Stakes (1926-1996), how many four-heat winners were there?
Of the four heat winners, how many of these winners gained entry to the 4th heat by winning the 3rd heat?

BTW, ALL the Hambletonian's have been raced on one-mile perimeters (even
when raced at (Syracuse, Lexington and Empire City (Yonkers; 1943)), for the sake of comparison, how many of the previous winners went 1:50 and change?

DeanT
08-10-2009, 10:39 AM
I did a quick study since they eliminated the heat racing in the Hambo and allowed heat winners to pick their post positions in 1997. Since then the Hambletonian final was won by a heat winner 76.92% of the time. Granted there are multiple heat winners each year, but this shows you how you basically are making the final a walkover.

Heat winners are the best horses, so they should win a large percentage of the time. That percentage does not seem out of whack at all.

wilderness
08-10-2009, 11:41 AM
4th heats required:

Park Avenue Joe & Probe 1989
Steve Lobell 1976
Egyptian Candor 1965
Blaze Hanover 1960
The Intruder 1956
Lord Jim 1934
The Marchioness 1932

In 1932 The Marchioness won her 1st heat, finished 4th in his 2nd heat (likely a small field), finished 2nd in the race-off, requring a 4th heat which she won.

In 1934, Lord Jim won his first heat and finished 4th in the race-off requiring a 4th heat which he won.

In 1956 the Intruder shows 11-1-1, and it's likely that the field was small and there were not multiple divisions/heats and the same horses simply raced back in heats one and two.

In 1960 Blaze Hanover won his heat, however finished 7th in the 2nd (likely another small field), then finished 3rd in the race-off, requiring a 4th heat, which he won.

In 1965 Egyptain Candor finnished 5th in his first heat, won his 2nd heat (likely another small field), however finished in the 2nd race-off, requiring a 4th heat which he won.

In 1976 Stevel Lobell finished 14th in his first heat (likely another small field), won his 2nd heat, finished 4th in the race-off, requiring a 4th heat, which he won.

In 1989 both Park Avenue Joe and Probe lost one of their 1st or 2nd heats. however won their third heats (likely large field), requiring a 4th heat race-off.

As a result of these fourth heat Hambletonian explanations, it becomes apparent that in the past 83 years of the Hambletonian, a horse has NOT gained entry to the final heat via winning the 3rd heat race-off, while simultaneously NOT winning a previous heat.

Pacingguy
08-10-2009, 11:42 AM
Heat winners are the best horses, so they should win a large percentage of the time. That percentage does not seem out of whack at all.

Agreed, heat winners are more likely to repeat, but that percentage does seem high to me. Regardless, stake races should be open draws. If we have to offer favorable post positions to ensure a good performance in an elimination, there is a bigger problem. It should be addressed other ways, not by putting the other horses at a disadvantage.

DeanT
08-10-2009, 12:24 PM
I dont disagree with that. I think there are better ways to do it.

Elims with an open draw are a step backwards, though. We used to do that and bettors complained that drivers were stiffing because a top 5 finish or whatever meant a spot in the final. This was a bit of hyperbole as well, because the elim winners usually went on to win the finals anyway.

Open draws draw the ire of horseman, that's for sure. Shadow Play won his elaim in the Confederation Cup last year and drew 8 for the final. They were pissed about that in the press.

Some stakes finals, like the LBJ are nothing more than coronations often times. On half mile tracks that is the way i like to look at them. I will not be looking for spine-tingling excitement in too many Jug finals, and I dont want the best horses to draw seven or whatever in finals just for me as a fan. They are what they are, and the elims are, and always have been (imo) the most exciting part of the Little Brown Jug for me.

Imriledup
08-10-2009, 09:38 PM
Well, it's official, harness racing's greatest race is now one of the worst races of the year. 3 years in a row the chalk marches to the front early, no one else leaves, and there is NO excitement at any point in the race. They made it so the horseman can choose their post if they win the elimination (so they try), but now the best horse gets the inside and jogs. The drivers on the outside have been asleep for the last 3 years. How do you not leave for 1.5 million when everyone knows that speed rules!

The track is speed favoring, the bikes are speed favoring, the times are ridiculous. This once great race, which was run in heats, and used to be amazing, is now a joke.


Interesting post. I agree with you but, just for kicks, i'm going to play devils advocate.

I think that your post comes from the heart of a horseplayer who wants to see an exciting betting race. If you werent' a player, you would love this kind of stuff because its all about great horses. The last 3 Hambos have featured incredibly gifted horses who figured to win and did. This is no different than Zenyatta winning yesterday vs a bunch of overmatched horses. People showed up to see Zenyatta and didn't care that she created an unbettable race. These Hambo finals are unbettable races, you just have to watch them as a fan of the sport and take advantage of the other races that are very good betting races.

Unfortunately, you are right about the speed being too dominant. Back in the 1980s, no horse who went fast early was going to be around at the end. Now, you have these incredible catch drivers with souped up equipment, modern chemicals to help breathing and they go to the front and go as fast as they can and don't stop sometimes.

There are a few things wrong with harness racing, but i'm not sure that a great horse going wire to wire in the sports biggest race and paying 2.40 is one of them.

Hambo's were much better with heat races, but since owners matter and bettors do not, the owners get their way and the heat racing went by the boards.

If you owned a horse in the Hambo, would have you told your driver to leave into the favorite who might park you the mile or would you have told him to race from behind and hope to get a check? I know personally if i owned a longshot in that race, my driver would be driving for 5th. If you get 4th great, but 5th is what we want.

pandy
08-11-2009, 07:20 AM
I'm really not looking at the Hambo strictly from a betting standpoint. This is the sport's most prestigious race and they should try to make it more exciting. The way the draw the post positions is to let the winners of the eliminations choose their post, this is a joke. If the favorite had post 10 the race would've been much better. It should be the luck of the draw. With the superbikes and fast times, giving the favorite the inside post is bound to result in many more boring Hambos and eventually you may see NBC drop the race and handle and interest in the race erode.

As for the drivers, last year I picked Art Official to win against supposedly unbeatable Somebeachsomewhere in the Big M Pace. Art Official left and was used hard but he got the two hole and upset at $28. It was the only race that Somebeachsomewhere ever lost. Ron Pierce drove Art Official and he said that the horse felt good warming up so he figured he'd take a shot. There were horses in this race that could've taken a shot too. The thing is, the way harness racing is now, if you have an outside post and you don't leave and at least try to get early position, you are probably not going to get a check because in these very fast races no one gains.

Zenyatta is on a more level playing field because there's no heavy bias, on Hambo day the track was super fast and with the superbikes it made it tough to gain. One horse went :25.3 to the lead and drew off, no one gained! Years ago with the wood bikes this horse would've stopped cold.

LottaKash
08-11-2009, 11:38 AM
One horse went :25.3 to the lead and drew off, no one gained! Years ago with the wood bikes this horse would've stopped cold.

Bob, given your skils and expertise in the Harness-Game, I don't quite understand why you picked out this particular race to make an example of a speed bias....I know you are referring to the "Noble Falcon" win on that day....

On Hambo-day, I only made two-wagers on that card, and they both won....One of them was "Noble Falcon"....($5.40)....I thought the Falcon to be a lock or sorts vs. who he had to beat on this day, in that race.....

Three races back, in his elimiination for the $500K- "Franklin" at Chester, he finished a close-up 4th (3/4's of a length) to "Mister Big" & "Art Official", and that, after an opening panel, on the engine, of 26-flat.....Then, in the Final from the 8-hole he ran pace numbers good enough to win that race, (in 1:48) and yet, despite being last over, still passed two horses in the last quarter and gained a length in the process (this is big, especially given how Chester's stretch is one of the shortest in all of harness racing)...His TM-SR of that race was "107",,,The following week he went out of town (to the Meadows) for an $50K Invitational and cut the mile losing only by a nk, finishing 3d, for the "whole pie".....

So, now he is back in a nw$25K-l6 ( clearly a "big-big" drop in class)....vs. a field comprised mostly of horse moving up a notch or two, and some horses that "may" at one time or another, belonged in this classification, but were surely out of shape and not in winning form as of late.....Easy pikins' if you ask me...

So he takes command in a 25:3 (only 2-ticks off of his close up finish to "Mr Big") opening panel...And on sheer heart and "class" keeps the lead and even extends it to the finish with the mile going in 1:48 and change.....So, Bob, I ask you, "who" was supposed to beat him in this race. ?...Bike or no Bike, or Bias or no Bias, he bottomed out the field early-on, and there was comphrehensively, no horse classy enough, or speedy enough to overcome that first 1/4 spanking he gave them.....

....***( I will say tho, that even tho he was moving up in class, "Doug's Fame" gave a
monster, 1st-over perfromance in losing (2d) to Noble Falcon)

Bob, with all due respect, and I sincerly mean that, "right cause"...wrong example (imo)

best,

DeanT
08-11-2009, 01:37 PM
I agree with that. NF would have won no matter what fractions in there. Hambo day the track is almost always hard and fast so seeing speed hold is not something out of the ordinary, as well.

I think it is a different world today with speed. And it has little to do with equipment or drivers, or whatever. We could do a pile of new vet work, slap on a Harmer and put Brian Sears on Most Happy Fella and he will still be a one move grinder..... same with Albatross, or most anything from the pre 1980's.

Today there ain't no one move grinders at the top level, there are three move horses who are so fast they can almost go a quarter as fast as a route horse in the tbreds, then re-move. Not long ago, I watched a horse train in 154 with two 27 quarters in a jog cart - modern horses are fast. We can try and slow them down with tricks and whatever, but good luck with that. I doubt it is going to happen.

LottaKash
08-11-2009, 02:23 PM
I agree with that. NF would have won no matter what fractions in there. Hambo day the track is almost always hard and fast so seeing speed hold is not something out of the ordinary, as well.

I think it is a different world today with speed. And it has little to do with equipment or drivers, or whatever. We could do a pile of new vet work, slap on a Harmer and put Brian Sears on Most Happy Fella and he will still be a one move grinder..... same with Albatross, or most anything from the pre 1980's.

Today there ain't no one move grinders at the top level, there are three move horses who are so fast they can almost go a quarter as fast as a route horse in the tbreds, then re-move. Not long ago, I watched a horse train in 154 with two 27 quarters in a jog cart - modern horses are fast. We can try and slow them down with tricks and whatever, but good luck with that. I doubt it is going to happen.

Not only that Dean, but on "Hambo-day"...there wasn't a pure early speed bias present...I thought the track was playing "very" fair on the day.....

There "was" a definite "Class" bias at work, and the very best and classiest horse horses won their respective races on or near the engine, and what is wrong with that ?....The rest of the races were very competitive "racing-style wise", imo...
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

The facts remain, Heat racing is dead, and wooden bikes are dead and they will never return, I don't think.....I miss that aspect too....but onward and forward....

I think the draw for post positions in the Hambo should be a "pill" style draw in the Hambo....At least that "is" fair.....

As for closers, the track maintenance guys can take care of that problem....It would be ez.....Bank the turns, and put in some softer type of surface that would make the early-speed horses tire a bit more, and allow the closers a better shot at winning.....I would like that....

But for now, unless something changes, I will continue to search for and use early speed and position, as it gives us something to rely on and allows us to measure the horse's speed and performances vs. their respective numbers, on a consistent basis...It took me years to get there, and now that is "my" reality....If it changes then I will change as well...I used to make much more money when closers had a better shot, than today....But, conversely, I am now much more selective and patient, and that helps me make up for the lack of "closer" action, that was me in earlier times-in-harness.....

best,

pandy
08-11-2009, 10:12 PM
He's a nice horse, but even with the super speed conditions you see today, it's actually quite rare to see a horse get parked to a :25.3 opener and win. Personally I was shocked that no one was able to gain on him.

botster
08-11-2009, 10:15 PM
He's a nice horse, but even with the super speed conditions you see today, it's actually quite rare to see a horse get parked to a :25.3 opener and win. Personally I was shocked that no one was able to gain on him.

So was everyone... even those who bet on him.Let's be honest here now...How does he come back like that after his previous start at the Meadows?

LottaKash
08-11-2009, 11:09 PM
He's a nice horse, but even with the super speed conditions you see today, it's actually quite rare to see a horse get parked to a :25.3 opener and win. Personally I was shocked that no one was able to gain on him.

Pandy, I think you need a vacation.....:eek:

best,

LottaKash
08-11-2009, 11:19 PM
So was everyone... even those who bet on him.Let's be honest here now...How does he come back like that after his previous start at the Meadows?

You are saying that losing a $50K invite, by a neck, is a dramatic loss...?....And that his hard fought and well done races vs. the "BEST PACERS in the LAND" were embarrassments....How honest does a horse have to get, to beat the junk he had to face on that day....?....

Again, WHO was supposed to beat him ?.....honestly now...

Disappointed in both of you....take a rest.....

botster
08-12-2009, 12:37 AM
You are saying that losing a $50K invite, by a neck, is a dramatic loss...?....And that his hard fought and well done races vs. the "BEST PACERS in the LAND" were embarrassments....How honest does a horse have to get, to beat the junk he had to face on that day....?....

Again, WHO was supposed to beat him ?.....honestly now...

Disappointed in both of you....take a rest.....

Best pacers in the land...Who's WAR BOOTS? I don't follow these upper class horses too closely, but I don't think he is anywhere in the category as MISTER BIG.

Yes, he was the class there Saturday and Brower put him in at 3-1, so nobody was fooled.IMO he should have won his last start...NO? The GP bet him down, because of the class drop from the MISTER BIG races and he lost, so what made him look so good Saturday at, or around, the same price?

Your right LK, there wasn't much in there,but I saw him lose off the drop in his last at the Meadows with that short stretch, so why would I go bet him here at the M1, now at a similiar price?

Gigantic improvement off of his prior start at the Meadows...drop or no drop IMO.Not because he won necessarily, but how easily he did it.

Sea Biscuit
08-12-2009, 01:30 AM
Gigantic improvement off of his prior start at the Meadows...drop or no drop IMO.Not because he won necessarily, but how easily he did it.

He won easily because he got away with a cheap middle half. A 55:4 middle half is slow for a 1:48:3 mile.

JMO

Sea Biscuit

botster
08-12-2009, 02:43 AM
He won easily because he got away with a cheap middle half. A 55:4 middle half is slow for a 1:48:3 mile.

JMO

Sea Biscuit

Myself not being too much of a "time guy", especially with these type of horses, I must say I did overlook this SB. Combined with the class edge, THAT IS GOOD ENOUGH, WHY HE WON ON THE TRACK.

Now give me a legit reason to bet him ON PAPER, at such a low odds BEFORE Saturdays race, and you can complete the sale.:ThmbUp:

botster
08-12-2009, 03:09 AM
Someone posted these numbers from Saturday.

6 races had horses win on the front end by the half...1-6-7-8-10-14.
3 races had horses win from the pocket.....11-12-15.
3 races had horses win from first over...3-5-9.

Only three races horses truly closed...RIGGINS,PAIR OF DICE, and POOF SHE'S GONE.

That certainly is a bigtime bias.

Those winners that truly closed paid:

POOF SHE'S GONE $14.40
RIGGINS $6.80
PAIR OF DICE $6.60

wilderness
08-12-2009, 11:18 AM
Hambo 2009: An exhibition, not a race (http://www.ustrotting.com/absolutenm/anmviewer.asp?a=33176&z=1), by Dean Hoffman

The View from the Hill: Operation Hambletonian complete (http://www.ustrotting.com/absolutenm/anmviewer.asp?a=33172&z=1), by Greg Peck

LottaKash
08-12-2009, 04:47 PM
Someone posted these numbers from Saturday.

6 races had horses win on the front end by the half...1-6-7-8-10-14.
3 races had horses win from the pocket.....11-12-15.
3 races had horses win from first over...3-5-9.

Only three races horses truly closed...RIGGINS,PAIR OF DICE, and POOF SHE'S GONE.

That certainly is a bigtime bias.

Those winners that truly closed paid:

POOF SHE'S GONE $14.40
RIGGINS $6.80
PAIR OF DICE $6.60

Dan, no one can argue those statistics, but there is one caveat that you failed to mention.....It is about "WHO" won those races on or near the engine...

The Favorites won most all of the raceson the "Hambo" card....I think there is a big difference in a " racing style-bias" vs. "favorites" bias.....

Some nites there is a definite Early-Speed bias, and one can quickly tell if this is so....When the cheap speed horses are rattling off fast fractions and stealing races on the front end, leaving the "legitimate closing type favorites" in the dust, and all or most of the races are won this way....Well to me that is a significant (big-time) "bias"....

On Hambo day, the "BEST" horses who happened to be the "FAVORITES" won most of the races....In fact there were several races that were won from off the pace, by the "favorites" as well......

Top Drivers know what is happening out there on any given day....Are you suggesting they race their horses differently from the way that they win best in doing ?.....My philosophy, if I were a driver, would be to take the lead if the day allowed it, and say "catch me if you can".....The favorites did just that, on that day, and nothing more....They were the "best" and the "quickest", and that is a bias in and of itself.....A "favorites bias"....

Also, at the Meadowlands, and at many other tracks as well, on Matinee race-days (daytime), especially in the warmer weather, the front end is almost always a friendlier place to be, especially for the best and swiftest horses....

1st race...2d choice wins (maybe the best one at that)
2d race...3d choice wins...(contentious race) off the pace
3d race...2d choice wins...(I thought this horse was best)
4....race...2d choice wins...fave is 2d...(from off the pace)
5....race...fave wins...(easily thetwo best in race fin 1 & 2)
6....race...fave wins...(best of these for weeks now)
7....race...fave wins...(Lucky Jim)
8....race...fave wins...(Noble Falcon)
9....race...3d choice wins ...(contentious race) 4-horse blanket finish
10..race....fave wins...(Muscle Hill)...
11..race....fave wins...(best horse ,imo) lucky to win it tho...
12..race....6/1 wins....(last year's superstar comes to life, beating fave "Mr Big"
13..race....fave wins (off the pace)
14..race....2d choice wins....
15..race....fave wins....(after torrid pace, trapped on rail and loose late

Sometimes an apparent "early speed bias" is an illusion, and it is really a "favorites" bias...

So you see it was more of "favorites" bias on an afternoon card.....And no one unqualified to do so, stole anything from anybody....The best horses simply won the day.....

There is no other point here for me...

best,

botster
08-12-2009, 07:23 PM
Dan, no one can argue those statistics, but there is one caveat that you failed to mention.....It is about "WHO" won those races on or near the engine...

The Favorites won most all of the raceson the "Hambo" card....I think there is a big difference in a " racing style-bias" vs. "favorites" bias.....

Some nites there is a definite Early-Speed bias, and one can quickly tell if this is so....When the cheap speed horses are rattling off fast fractions and stealing races on the front end, leaving the "legitimate closing type favorites" in the dust, and all or most of the races are won this way....Well to me that is a significant (big-time) "bias"....

On Hambo day, the "BEST" horses who happened to be the "FAVORITES" won most of the races....In fact there were several races that were won from off the pace, by the "favorites" as well......

Top Drivers know what is happening out there on any given day....Are you suggesting they race their horses differently from the way that they win best in doing ?.....My philosophy, if I were a driver, would be to take the lead if the day allowed it, and say "catch me if you can".....The favorites did just that, on that day, and nothing more....They were the "best" and the "quickest", and that is a bias in and of itself.....A "favorites bias"....

Also, at the Meadowlands, and at many other tracks as well, on Matinee race-days (daytime), especially in the warmer weather, the front end is almost always a friendlier place to be, especially for the best and swiftest horses....

1st race...2d choice wins (maybe the best one at that)
2d race...3d choice wins...(contentious race) off the pace
3d race...2d choice wins...(I thought this horse was best)
4....race...2d choice wins...fave is 2d...(from off the pace)
5....race...fave wins...(easily thetwo best in race fin 1 & 2)
6....race...fave wins...(best of these for weeks now)
7....race...fave wins...(Lucky Jim)
8....race...fave wins...(Noble Falcon)
9....race...3d choice wins ...(contentious race) 4-horse blanket finish
10..race....fave wins...(Muscle Hill)...
11..race....fave wins...(best horse ,imo) lucky to win it tho...
12..race....6/1 wins....(last year's superstar comes to life, beating fave "Mr Big"
13..race....fave wins (off the pace)
14..race....2d choice wins....
15..race....fave wins....(after torrid pace, trapped on rail and loose late

Sometimes an apparent "early speed bias" is an illusion, and it is really a "favorites" bias...

So you see it was more of "favorites" bias on an afternoon card.....And no one unqualified to do so, stole anything from anybody....The best horses simply won the day.....

There is no other point here for me...

best,

LK, I wasn't posting these stats, because I was trying to prove a point.I just wanted to show exactly how speed favoring this track was Saturday, favorites, or not.They were top quality horses that won pretty much all day, so NO, they didn't steal those races IMO.

The races were very boring still for a mile track.The mile track is suppose to make the races more exciting.I would go to Yonkers if I want to see a majority of speed line-ups.... SORRY, JUST BORING!

camfella
08-12-2009, 07:28 PM
Have to say LK, that you "get it" , your points are entirely correct. Muscle Hill is one of the top 8 trotters of all time RIGHT NOW! with out racing another race,only Lucky Jim would have had a shot at him,but Muscle Hill would have beaten him too,he is a super horse,there has got to be some awe in watching his Secretariat like win.
As far as speed bias, yes the track was playing speed, so the fact that everyone knew it,why weren't they all going to the lead??because it's the obverse, when you have the best horse ,you want the lead by the half,which skews your front end winner's numbers , and the best knowing that he wins if he makes front,is your statistical double whammy-Camfella

wilderness
08-14-2009, 09:56 PM
Tom Charters of the Hanbletonain Society was kind enough to provide the following in a private reply.
Those folks at the Hambletonian Society have had a hectic few weeks and are anxiously awaiting the wind-down of the Meadowland's meet.


Forgot Bonefish which was the only 3rd heat winner to ever take the trophy with a 4th heat.

I read this discussion. In the 71 editions under the heats format, the trophy was won in straight heats (1-1) I think about 45 times (63%). Another 12 or so, did not win the 1st heat, but won the next two consequtive heats (80%). The stats, given the small sample, are not significantly different that the number winning elims and the final since 1997.

Heats are not about stamina... there about a 2nd chance in the years before Speedy Crown. (wilderness; believe Tom is referring here to pedigree).

Zman179
08-15-2009, 08:59 PM
The Hambletonian is just another forgettable race with an inflated purse ever since they got rid of the heats. I can't remember who won the race two or three years ago, heck last year is a fog, but I'll never forget the Park Avenue Joe/Probe dead heat or when Mack Lobell won.

toetoe
08-16-2009, 02:46 PM
In 1976 Stevel Lobell finished 14th in his first heat (likely another small field),

:lol: .

toetoe
08-16-2009, 02:57 PM
As for the drivers, last year I picked Art Official to win against supposedly unbeatable Somebeachsomewhere in the Big M Pace. Art Official left and was used hard but he got the two hole and upset at $28.

I picked him also, and I believe he paid $25.60.

I don't give Pierce too much credit, as he didn't even have a plan until warmups ... :confused: .

Also, another pacer actually went very aggressively, and his stalling "forced" MacDonell to tip three wide; that was a huge factor in SS's defeat. Maybe MacDonell was having a Desormeaux moment --- who knows ? :D .

This is not to discount your main point, Bob. I just don't count on Ron Pierce for world class aggressive driving. Nice effort by Lachance, anyway. :ThmbUp: .

Pacingguy
08-16-2009, 03:45 PM
Tom Charters of the Hanbletonain Society was kind enough to provide the following in a private reply.
Those folks at the Hambletonian Society have had a hectic few weeks and are anxiously awaiting the wind-down of the Meadowland's meet.


Forgot Bonefish which was the only 3rd heat winner to ever take the trophy with a 4th heat.

I read this discussion. In the 71 editions under the heats format, the trophy was won in straight heats (1-1) I think about 45 times (63%). Another 12 or so, did not win the 1st heat, but won the next two consequtive heats (80%). The stats, given the small sample, are not significantly different that the number winning elims and the final since 1997.

Heats are not about stamina... there about a 2nd chance in the years before Speedy Crown. (wilderness; believe Tom is referring here to pedigree).

Your figure about straight heat winners doesn't surprise me being a heat winner was given the rail in the next heat. In a way the same as being done now with eliminations. A little less objectionable since that is the standard for heat racing. My whole point is by assigning posts as a result of the finish in an elimination race is in effect 'rigging' the final. The final is not a fair event.

pandy
08-17-2009, 05:59 PM
Muscle Hill one of the top 8 trotters of all time? Probably not. He certainly didn't prove much in the Hambo, he had the rail, was allowed to set his own pace, no one challenged, the track was lightning fast. It was essentially a time trial. There are about many trotters that could have won that race in that scenario. I need to see him rough it like Une de Mai did when she was parked the mile and a quarter without cover against the likes of Nevele Pride, lost ground on the turns, yet still ran him down in the lane to win the Roosevelt International Trot against one of the best field of trotters ever. You guys are being fooled by the fast times, Muscle Hill is a great 3yo, but his standing in the list of all time trotters remains to be seen. Now if you're only talking about American trotters, he moves up, but when you include the French and Swedes, well, he's got a lot to prove. I certainly don't think he could've beaten Varenne, and maybe not Fool's Goal or Moni Maker, Peace Corps, Ideal du Gazeau. These horses competed against the best in the world and proved it time and time again, without easy rail trips and back then, the other drivers actually challenged!

botster
08-17-2009, 07:16 PM
Muscle Hill one of the top 8 trotters of all time? Probably not. He certainly didn't prove much in the Hambo, he had the rail, was allowed to set his own pace, no one challenged, the track was lightning fast. It was essentially a time trial. There are about many trotters that could have won that race in that scenario. I need to see him rough it like Une de Mai did when she was parked the mile and a quarter without cover against the likes of Nevele Pride, lost ground on the turns, yet still ran him down in the lane to win the Roosevelt International Trot against one of the best field of trotters ever. You guys are being fooled by the fast times, Muscle Hill is a great 3yo, but his standing in the list of all time trotters remains to be seen. Now if you're only talking about American trotters, he moves up, but when you include the French and Swedes, well, he's got a lot to prove. I certainly don't think he could've beaten Varenne, and maybe not Fool's Goal or Moni Maker, Peace Corps, Ideal du Gazeau. These horses competed against the best in the world and proved it time and time again, without easy rail trips and back then, the other drivers actually challenged!

That post you are referring to Pandy that declared him to be such, was not even worth a response... TOTAL LUNACY!!!!

People are so quick to determine GREATNESS and MUSCLE HILL has yet to prove greatness.The media hype is to be blamed to a large degree.There are PROBABLY trotters currently racing in France that are better than him...lol.

pandy
08-17-2009, 07:42 PM
That post you are referring to Pandy that declared him to be such, was not even worth a response... TOTAL LUNACY!!!!

People are so quick to determine GREATNESS and MUSCLE HILL has yet to prove greatness.The media hype is to be blamed to a large degree.There are PROBABLY trotters currently racing in France that are better than him...lol.

You are right, in Europe there are usually quite a few powerful trotters, that's what made Varenne so great, he took them all on and rarely lost.

LottaKash
08-17-2009, 09:29 PM
:jump: ... Hey, I've got a "great idea"...Let's all chip in and SEND "Muscle Hill" to France and then Sweden....:jump: After all, it's not his fault that he ran out of 3yo-trotters to beat....Let's test him.....That would be the only way to find out for "sure"....Speculation on who could've beat who, is nice for chatting, but foolish to say who "really" could've beaten who...

Trouble is, few American-greats, don't get to do that anymore, they go to stud, or are sold off to the "foreign" interests, and that really kills off the really good, competitive, and exciting, top-level racing that could have been, and certainly, once was...Especially the great "trotters"....And we in America, are left with "rags".....

best,

botster
08-17-2009, 10:53 PM
SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE showed his greatness on the track at two and three.His mile at Yonkers in where he went first over on the off track ,and the ultimate performance that catapulted him into greatness was his defeat in the M1 pace.

MUSCLE HILL has yet to trot a mile similiar to these performances.Getting easy leads and winning in fast times is just not deserved of greatness status.If he retires without showing one of these type of miles, he will always be seen as the best horse in his division that raced during the years he was on the track, but not one who deserves to be forever listed among the greats.

LottaKash
08-17-2009, 11:46 PM
MUSCLE HILL has yet to trot a mile similiar to these performances..

He hasn't had to.....That is up to the competition to prove him....He hasn't had any competition....He is either "that good", or else his competition is "that bad"....Which is it ?....

As I see it, so far, no one has had the strengh and stamina to go head to head with him, and beat him....That has to count for something....

best,

LottaKash
08-18-2009, 12:01 AM
SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE .

Another one that "jumped ship" after his 3yo-season was over.....Many other "greats" at least hung around for awhile and gaves us some more exciting races, even after their 3yo seasons were memories, and they faced other champions of their 3yo seasons....That's what is "really" missing these days....Great horses hanging around for awhile...

Taking nothing away from SBSW....He was a formidable horse.....

botster
08-20-2009, 12:48 AM
Another one that "jumped ship" after his 3yo-season was over.....Many other "greats" at least hung around for awhile and gaves us some more exciting races, even after their 3yo seasons were memories, and they faced other champions of their 3yo seasons....That's what is "really" missing these days....Great horses hanging around for awhile...

Taking nothing away from SBSW....He was a formidable horse.....

The last word...AGAIN by you LK,until now, proving my point once again!

SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE "a formidable horse"...LOL.

At three he proved his greatness, proof positive that TODAY IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A HORSE SHOW HIS GREATNESS at three.

MUSCLE HILL has yet to prove that!!!!

LottaKash
08-20-2009, 01:42 AM
The last word...AGAIN by you LK,until now, proving my point once again!

SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE "a formidable horse"...LOL.

At three he proved his greatness, proof positive that TODAY IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A HORSE SHOW HIS GREATNESS at three.

MUSCLE HILL has yet to prove that!!!!

What is wrong or funny about denoting that SBSW was a "formidable" horse...

Definition from dictionary..: "formidable"

1. Arousing fear, dread or alarm..

2. Inspiring "awe", "admiration" or "wonder"...

3. Difficult to undertake, surmount or "defeat"

What else would you have liked me to say about "SBSW" ?....

P.S. I apologize again, "Muscle Hill" really sucks and he shouldn't be mentioned here anymore.... And, I apologize again, for his "shellacking" of all of his opponents this year, I mean that really sucked, didn't it ?...Couldn't possibly be any hint of greatness there, right ?

You win again, Dan...

best,

Hanover1
08-20-2009, 02:06 AM
The last word...AGAIN by you LK,until now, proving my point once again!

SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE "a formidable horse"...LOL.

At three he proved his greatness, proof positive that TODAY IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A HORSE SHOW HIS GREATNESS at three.

MUSCLE HILL has yet to prove that!!!!
Gee, lets see...wire them all year, and win handily as well in record time, and hes not great :lol: what does he have to do to prove to YOU that he is great?? Just because his connections might retire him before you can see him race as an aged trotter means nothing. Until another 3yr old can trot as fast or win like he does, and can prove his consistency-then Muscle Hill is GREAT until that colt shows up. (3yr old and Horse of the Year considerations mean nothin to you???) With that speed, he outtrots French/Swede/Norse/Italian, ect.....any time anywhere. SPEED KILLS :p

botster
08-20-2009, 01:10 PM
Gee, lets see...wire them all year, and win handily as well in record time, and hes not great :lol: what does he have to do to prove to YOU that he is great?? Just because his connections might retire him before you can see him race as an aged trotter means nothing. Until another 3yr old can trot as fast or win like he does, and can prove his consistency-then Muscle Hill is GREAT until that colt shows up. (3yr old and Horse of the Year considerations mean nothin to you???) With that speed, he outtrots French/Swede/Norse/Italian, ect.....any time anywhere. SPEED KILLS :p

Final times...HAHAHAHAHA!!!

Sea Biscuit
08-20-2009, 01:27 PM
Final times...HAHAHAHAHA!!!


Bots let me ask you a question.

If I were to take away the final times and the fractional times away from your program and blot them out would you still be able to cap harness races.

From some of your posts I gather that you don't bother to look at fractional times and final times.

Sea Biscuit.

botster
08-20-2009, 04:17 PM
Bots let me ask you a question.

If I were to take away the final times and the fractional times away from your program and blot them out would you still be able to cap harness races.

From some of your posts I gather that you don't bother to look at fractional times and final times.

Sea Biscuit.

I do look at fractional times SB, and I do factor them into my handicapping more than I ever have over the last ten years.With that being said, it still is not the #1 factor for myself, and I do not put as strong of an emphasis on it compared to other factors.Speed figures and speed numbers are a sure fire way to disaster for a handicapper.They produce short priced horses and will not hold up, because other factors are just more important IMO.

To answer your question, yes we need fractional times to handicap are overnight races, but when you get to the classier stock it means almost NOTHING to me, other than one that may be coming off a rest or a green type. Otherwise any of these horses on any given night can go one or two seconds faster than their previous.

A horse like MUSCLE HILL needs to show me more, before I put him in the same category as the same Pandy had listed earlier, or more recently, a horse like SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE.

These front end, never challenged miles, with fast final times mean very little today considering how they were accomplished and how the "souped up" speed factors come into play today.

botster
08-20-2009, 04:43 PM
The last word...AGAIN by you LK,until now, proving my point once again!

SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE " was a formidable horse"...LOL.

At three he proved his greatness, proof positive that TODAY IT IS POSSIBLE TO HAVE A HORSE SHOW HIS GREATNESS at three.

MUSCLE HILL has yet to prove that!!!!

LK you don't get it!!! The underlining of the word WAS by you,still does not defer from the fact that greatness CAN be assigned to a horse retiring after his three year old season.

That was my point, along with you of course always wanting to get the last word in on every topic discussed on this board!;)

LottaKash
08-20-2009, 08:13 PM
LK you don't get it!!! The underlining of the word WAS by you,still does not defer from the fact that greatness CAN be assigned to a horse retiring after his three year old season.

That was my point, along with you of course always wanting to get the last word in on every topic discussed on this board!;)

This is the last word.....haha....:jump:

It is a forum Dan, they don't set the hours for discussion...Don't read it, then...

Look, you bet a horse at high odds...NOthing wrong with that....it lost, nothing wrong with that...We all swing for the fences from time to time....Hey, we bet our money and take our chances....We have all been doing that for years...Nothing wrong with that....I love a gambling adventure as much as the next guy...And I have done just what you did on hambo-day at one time or another...

Believe it or not, I agree with much of what you have said about "anything" along this way....I am not that naive or so vain to think that someone else's ideas, opinions or race-picks are not valid...

But, you accused me of being a know it all...I have never given out anything to anyone in this forum without believing that it was the truth as far as I knew it to be...I take offense to that....If I was wrong or misinformed on a subject, I have always admitted to that, and you know that....

I have given out my personal race-picks, many times, and I have always provided my reasons for them....Yet you take offense to my style of sharing..What is up with that ? ...People do like hear the reasons for a pick...

But, here is where Yours & Pandy's posts rubbed me the wrong way....Yes, Pandy too....

Neither one of you gave any credit or accolades to the winner of the "Hambletonian"....

Rather than that, here is what you both came up with....(remember Pandy's best bet on hambo-day was "Explosive Matter", & finished 2d to the champ)( Botster's pick was 78/1)

All Pandy could say was:
the hambo was a snoozer.....
they need to change the draw....
some old horses like "Une de Mai" etc., and others from 20 years, ago could've beaten Muscle Hill.....
(in another race on the card)... I can't believe that a horse could go a really fast first 1/4, and still win.....
No praise whatsoever for the "champ"

All Botster could say about the winner was:
boring race....
how could my horse win, the champ had the rail...
my horse couldn't get the lead because of the insane fractions....
my horse had a bad trip....
other drivers drove in a lackluster style, and that is why my horse lost....
total lunacy....
my horse would've won if he could get the lead....
then, on about pre-racing and drugs...
then, on about another horse going lame in another race, on the card...
SBSW last's years pacing champ ( a 3yo pacing colt, not a 3yo trotting colt) was a way better horse...
No praise whatsoever for the "champ'

So now comes the follow up to the Hambo the "Colonial Trot" and here is Botster again....
i can't see him losing there, he has the 4-hole....
he needs a decent trip to win...
how could I win, my poor horse was first over....
then back to SBSW...
if he had an ez lead he could've been there...
Again, no praise for the winner, the next best 3yo-trotting colt in the land...

So this is my gripe...Not your picks, nor your opinions, but your "Whining" and "Complaining"....like a kid, waaaah, my horse lost, they cheated me...

Back in the day, with the guys, that I hung around with at the track, if they heard complaing like that....Well, they would've told you to stick a special part of your anatomy into another part of your anatomy, and shut up....

For me, I just hate it when someone does, an after the race "REDBOARD".... and all the woulda, coulda, shouldas..

for all my faults, no one here has ever seen me do that, when one of the picks that I gave out, failed....They just lost...

camfella
08-20-2009, 10:53 PM
This is the last word.....haha....:jump:

It is a forum Dan, they don't set the hours for discussion...Don't read it, then...

Look, you bet a horse at high odds...NOthing wrong with that....it lost, nothing wrong with that...We all swing for the fences from time to time....Hey, we bet our money and take our chances....We have all been doing that for years...Nothing wrong with that....I love a gambling adventure as much as the next guy...And I have done just what you did on hambo-day at one time or another...

Believe it or not, I agree with much of what you have said about "anything" along this way....I am not that naive or so vain to think that someone else's ideas, opinions or race-picks are not valid...

But, you accused me of being a know it all...I have never given out anything to anyone in this forum without believing that it was the truth as far as I knew it to be...I take offense to that....If I was wrong or misinformed on a subject, I have always admitted to that, and you know that....

I have given out my personal race-picks, many times, and I have always provided my reasons for them....Yet you take offense to my style of sharing..What is up with that ? ...People do like hear the reasons for a pick...

But, here is where Yours & Pandy's posts rubbed me the wrong way....Yes, Pandy too....

Neither one of you gave any credit or accolades to the winner of the "Hambletonian"....

Rather than that, here is what you both came up with....(remember Pandy's best bet on hambo-day was "Explosive Matter", & finished 2d to the champ)( Botster's pick was 78/1)

All Pandy could say was:
the hambo was a snoozer.....
they need to change the draw....
some old horses like "Une de Mai" etc., and others from 20 years, ago could've beaten Muscle Hill.....
(in another race on the card)... I can't believe that a horse could go a really fast first 1/4, and still win.....
No praise whatsoever for the "champ"

All Botster could say about the winner was:
boring race....
how could my horse win, the champ had the rail...
my horse couldn't get the lead because of the insane fractions....
my horse had a bad trip....
other drivers drove in a lackluster style, and that is why my horse lost....
total lunacy....
my horse would've won if he could get the lead....
then, on about pre-racing and drugs...
then, on about another horse going lame in another race, on the card...
SBSW last's years pacing champ ( a 3yo pacing colt, not a 3yo trotting colt) was a way better horse...
No praise whatsoever for the "champ'

So now comes the follow up to the Hambo the "Colonial Trot" and here is Botster again....
i can't see him losing there, he has the 4-hole....
he needs a decent trip to win...
how could I win, my poor horse was first over....
then back to SBSW...
if he had an ez lead he could've been there...
Again, no praise for the winner, the next best 3yo-trotting colt in the land...

So this is my gripe...Not your picks, nor your opinions, but your "Whining" and "Complaining"....like a kid, waaaah, my horse lost, they cheated me...

Back in the day, with the guys, that I hung around with at the track, if they heard complaing like that....Well, they would've told you to stick a special part of your anatomy into another part of your anatomy, and shut up....

For me, I just hate it when someone does, an after the race "REDBOARD".... and all the woulda, coulda, shouldas..

for all my faults, no one here has ever seen me do that, when one of the picks that I gave out, failed....They just lost...

the definition of crazy is someone who keeps making sense and then expecting a different result, I have found that in our infancy of wagering,we had an uncle ,father,or friend who was the "one" ,and we all imported the truisms ,like "time only matters in jail", "horse cant win with a poor driver", ""last quarter gains are the most important" etc,etc,blah, ad noseum. all of them are partly true in context of the addendum you add to the platitude, for example "the last race time was poor but he was parked the mile in fast fractions" a clear case where time didnt matter. Somehow these truisms get carried on and on,until they obscure the truth and the original reason they were offered. Time matters,but sometimes it doesnt, drivers matter most ,but not all of the time,the horse matters the most, etc ,etc. So if our mentor said it 20 years ago,we cant change the ten commandments of horse playing,even though they are wrong most of the time on their own...without explanation-CF

wilderness
08-20-2009, 11:03 PM
"the last race time was poor but he was parked the mile in fast fractions" -CF

You mean to tell me that you didn't enjoy seeing those :28-1:00-1:32-2:05's

DeanT
08-21-2009, 12:41 AM
Muscle Hill is the fastest trotter I have ever seen.

Sea Biscuit
08-21-2009, 06:27 AM
I do look at fractional times SB, and I do factor them into my handicapping more than I ever have over the last ten years.With that being said, it still is not the #1 factor for myself, and I do not put as strong of an emphasis on it compared to other factors.Speed figures and speed numbers are a sure fire way to disaster for a handicapper.They produce short priced horses and will not hold up, because other factors are just more important IMO.

To answer your question, yes we need fractional times to handicap are overnight races, but when you get to the classier stock it means almost NOTHING to me, other than one that may be coming off a rest or a green type. Otherwise any of these horses on any given night can go one or two seconds faster than their previous.

A horse like MUSCLE HILL needs to show me more, before I put him in the same category as the same Pandy had listed earlier, or more recently, a horse like SOMEBEACHSOMEWHERE.

These front end, never challenged miles, with fast final times mean very little today considering how they were accomplished and how the "souped up" speed factors come into play today.

This is my opinion only.

Speed and analyzing pace and who did what in a race is THE most important factor in harness racing. The rest of the factors like post position switches, driver changes, trainers, breeding, class and class changes,angles etc etc are all secondary.

You were once a trainer and I don't know your stats as a trainer so I really can't comment on that but let me tell you that all trainers, drivers, commentators and good handicappers are all impressed by fast speed and fast final times. True final times have to be considered in conjunction with what happens at the half and the three quarters. The slower these fractions are the slower will be the final times and vice versa. The speedier animals go on to become champions and win hundreds and thousands of dollars and the lesser kind are delegated to the claiming ranks forever.

Just recently I was reading an interview by Annette Lorentzon and up and coming trainer from Sweden and I am taking an excerpt from an interview which is as follows:

"Howthehaloareyou is progressing,” Lorentzon said. “He was just unlucky last year. He was beaten by a neck at the Red Mile [in a Bluegrass division] and that’s why he’s a maiden. He finished very strongly in his first start back and I was surprised he could go in 1:54.2 already [in the second NJSS leg]. I hadn’t trained him with any speed yet, he surprised me.”

Her complete interview can be read at the following link

http://www.harnesslink.com/www/Article.cgi?ID=72898

So you see my friend Speed does matter. Speed is important but how you interpret is even more important.

My best to you

Sea Biscuit.

Pacingguy
08-21-2009, 08:28 AM
History determines who the greatest horse is. Speed is one factor; longevity, the level of competition and ability to battle adversity races also factor in. You can't judge that until you are able to look back.

Think about it, Donato Hanover was proclaimed the greatest; then came Deweycheatemnhowe and now Muscle Hill. We used the term the greatest too freely.

In my opionion Muscle Hill will not be the greatest. After all, we will never know how performs as an aged trotter. He may turn out to be one of the best 3yo trotters, but I can't say he will be one of the greatest. Face it, if he turns out to be a bust as a sire in a few years they will be saying Muscle Hill and Shiaway St Pat in the same breath. A great horse will be remembered whether a success or a flop as a sire.

wilderness
08-21-2009, 10:44 AM
On the "trotting side" and even though it was a different time?

How can anybody be compared to Nevele Pride?
He was HOY as a 2YO, 3YO and 4YO. No horse did it before (course HOY didn't begin until 1947) and no trotter has done it since.

Bret Hanover on the pacing side did the same thing in the three years preceding Nevele Pride. No paced has done it since (or before).

Maybe the HOY voters were just drunk for six years ;)

botster
08-21-2009, 11:01 AM
This is my opinion only.

Speed and analyzing pace and who did what in a race is THE most important factor in harness racing. The rest of the factors like post position switches, driver changes, trainers, breeding, class and class changes,angles etc etc are all secondary.

You were once a trainer and I don't know your stats as a trainer so I really can't comment on that, but let me tell you that all trainers, drivers, commentators and good handicappers are all impressed by fast speed and fast final times. True final times have to be considered in conjunction with what happens at the half and the three quarters. The slower these fractions are the slower will be the final times and vice versa. The speedier animals go on to become champions and win hundreds and thousands of dollars and the lesser kind are delegated to the claiming ranks forever.

Just recently I was reading an interview by Annette Lorentzon and up and coming trainer from Sweden and I am taking an excerpt from an interview which is as follows:

"Howthehaloareyou is progressing,” Lorentzon said. “He was just unlucky last year. He was beaten by a neck at the Red Mile [in a Bluegrass division] and that’s why he’s a maiden. He finished very strongly in his first start back and I was surprised he could go in 1:54.2 already [in the second NJSS leg]. I hadn’t trained him with any speed yet, he surprised me.”

Her complete interview can be read at the following link

http://www.harnesslink.com/www/Article.cgi?ID=72898

So you see my friend Speed does matter. Speed is important but how you interpret is even more important.

My best to you

Sea Biscuit.

SB I do respect your opinion and you make very good points when it comes to overnight handicapping events.I can understand why you consider speed to be the determining factor, but I don't, and have succeeded in only using it as a secondary factor in most cases.

Training horses and handicapping them are handled very similiarly for me.I can get a pretty good idea when my horse will perform well. I can tell by their attitude,soundness ,and how they handle themselves on the training track.The only time I can see fractional times being a factor is when I bring one off a lengthy rest, otherwise I in most cases, never bother to put any emphasis on what my horses are doing in respect of their individual times during their racing season.

Classifying my horse is essential to have them perform well.If my horse has been performing well and has two consecutive starts in where he regresses, or begins to sore up to where I can't get him physically where i think he needs to be, I drop him.Trainers are the most important factor for me in my handicapping I need to know exactly how they operate and only then will I begin to turn a profit.Trips are another aspect that I need to watch using replays it's what the program can't tell me is what helps me win.

I don't need to look at times when I race a HORSE TO KNOW WHEN HE NOT BEING COMPETATIVE ENOUGH TO MAKE MONEY FOR ME.Neither, do I need to look at times when I handicap a race to know when a horse is not being competative.

I had mentioned before, that I try to keep records of every horse racing at a particuliar meet and evaluate them as individuals.This is the reason I am able to succeed and win.I must continue what works for me.I know I go against the norm in this manner, but if those who look at speed being the determining factor win, then great for them!

THE CHANCELLOR has improved since his race in where he tired in his elimination.Here I did use times, he only had a few starts back and was lightly raced anyway.The speed intention that Miller had that night with this colt was a great sign that the horse would improve...AND HE DID! Nobody watching the Hambo replay could deny that effort on such a speed favoring afternoon.I have caught a slew of these types over the years and WILL NEVER be afraid of the odds board when I see one similiar to this type.Maybe he won't beat EXPLOSIVE MATTER, but I think he will be the favorite to win the Yonkers Trot.If he does accomplish that feat I would say he had improved drastically from his elimination loss for the Hambo.

I am sorry for the long winded response SB;) .

camfella
08-21-2009, 11:37 AM
You mean to tell me that you didn't enjoy seeing those :28-1:00-1:32-2:05's
I saw many 2:20 trot races in what could best be described as quagmires,40 years ago most trotters and pacers were very rough gaited,it was not unusual to have 2-3 breakers in a pace,which is much more rare now.
The capper had much less info back then,most good info was from watching races. I think the low prices now are from the advent of information overload,access to replays and charts. We used to make our own class and speed variants and ratings,if good you won. Driver win % were much lower, catch drivers very rare, training miles common,they raced them into shape. The trainers who understood equipment changes made their own riggings and bits,head poles etc. Race bikes were terrible,usually bolted together.
The races were always backed way down in the middle, closers dominated,speed horses were an iffy play. Pace became the key element as time went on,drivers would bottom fields out, the Yonkers/Roosevelt circuit was the origination of that tactic ,that with equipment has become the norm today with the better equipment and racing surfaces.
I can remember the first time that I saw 1/2 times under a min, it was crazy, how could they win? in a 58 half,seems funny now-CF

botster
08-21-2009, 12:28 PM
[QUOTE=Sea Biscuit]This is my opinion only.



You were once a trainer and I don't know your stats as a trainer so I really can't comment on that but let me tell you that all trainers, drivers, commentators and good handicappers are all impressed by fast speed and fast final times.

Interesting comment and very true.This is a factor in why I am able to get overlays.An old player of the game once told me that "TIMES WERE FOR THOSE SERVING A SENTENCE IN JAIL".The GP who ARE MANY TIMES BAD HANDICAPPERS, rely to heavily on times in MANY cases, make poor favorites, and create some good value for other players.

Commentators use speed to try to hype the sport and it's fans.Not all trainers are all impressed by speed.If you talk to those who were around in the game in the seventies and eightees before the newer trainers arrived on the scene the opposite was true.I remember many during the ON THE ROAD AGAIN/NIHILATOR era ,who would "give their left nut" before claiming the speed ball NIHALATOR was anywhere near in ability as the grinder/powerful closer, more versatile ON THE ROAD AGAIN.

wilderness
08-21-2009, 12:36 PM
I can remember the first time that I saw 1/2 times under a min, it was crazy, how could they win? in a 58 half,seems funny now-CF

CF,
The first half-time under a minute that I recall at Northville Downs was when a horse named Chabru driven by Ted Smith went 59.3.
A Leroy Copeland driven-trained horse named Penn State won the race.

Don't recall much of Chabru after that.
This may have even been before the SS bikes ;)

I also recall some races at DRC-Wolverine Raceway when the weekly Inviationals were playing with the two-minute mark (Johnny G, Gaviland and The Big Bear were a few).

LottaKash
08-21-2009, 02:51 PM
Does anyone ever wonder why, "trainers" when training their horses, still carry "stop watches" ?... I wonder ?

best,

LottaKash
08-21-2009, 02:59 PM
I saw many 2:20 trot races in what could best be described as quagmires,40 years ago most trotters and pacers were very rough gaited,it was not unusual to have 2-3 breakers in a pace,which is much more rare now.
The capper had much less info back then,most good info was from watching races. I think the low prices now are from the advent of information overload,access to replays and charts. We used to make our own class and speed variants and ratings,if good you won. Driver win % were much lower, catch drivers very rare, training miles common,they raced them into shape. The trainers who understood equipment changes made their own riggings and bits,head poles etc. Race bikes were terrible,usually bolted together.
The races were always backed way down in the middle, closers dominated,speed horses were an iffy play. Pace became the key element as time went on,drivers would bottom fields out, the Yonkers/Roosevelt circuit was the origination of that tactic ,that with equipment has become the norm today with the better equipment and racing surfaces.
I can remember the first time that I saw 1/2 times under a min, it was crazy, how could they win? in a 58 half,seems funny now-CF

I remember all that as well...Harness-racing wasn't nearly as slick as it is nowadays....

But, as in all things, time changes everything....Just look at NASCAR racing, it has become too slick for me, also....I remember a different look and feel for stock-car racing....I think the same may be true for Harness as well, and perhaps that is not too good a thing....

Still, we must adjust, period, or quit......Never !!!...I will just keep adjusting...:jump:

best,

wilderness
08-21-2009, 03:05 PM
Does anyone ever wonder why, "trainers" when training their horses, still carry "stop watches" ?... I wonder ?

best,

They still train their horses within a specific time frame. Remembers most training tracks are not the same quality of surface as a racing track.

There are many trainers and/or drivers with such extensive experience that can tell you the approximate times without a watch.

I recall a recent read of an old-timer that used to take wagers and let people state a time for a "split" and then wager on the time within a fifth ;)

Horses these days don't get the training trips they used to.
In the old days there were double and triple hitters (times even more) where the training mile was reduced gradually. These training procedures were generally twice a week and one may have been replaced with a race day.

A good read on the old methods is in the "OLD (1969 Ver)" Care and Training of the Trotter and Pacer by the USTA.

LottaKash
08-21-2009, 03:19 PM
They still train their horses within a specific time frame................ A good read on the old methods is in the "OLD (1969 Ver)" Care and Training of the Trotter and Pacer by the USTA.

That was my point, about the watches....

And, the Old 69' book, (I still have it) is equivalent to the "King James Bible" -1611 edition....:jump:...Both original, "masterpieces"...

best,

LottaKash
08-21-2009, 03:50 PM
Just recently I was reading an interview by Annette Lorentzon and up and coming trainer from Sweden and I am taking an excerpt from an interview which is as follows:

Her complete interview can be read at the following link

http://www.harnesslink.com/www/Article.cgi?ID=72898

So you see my friend Speed does matter. Speed is important but how you interpret is even more important.

My best to you

Sea Biscuit.

Hey Biscuit, it's good that you noticed her talents too...

I believe she can train with any of-em.....:jump:

I first noticed her last year @Pocono Downs, she had a yound nw-type, that she had recently, just cracked down on, and I thought this one was nicely speed tightened in those past two races ,but the running lines didn't look all that good, at least to the players that are looking for a more formful looking running line...

I was a bit bothered by the 8-hole, and that she was driving the horse herself, but when she opened up @5/2, I was sure that I may have been on to something....She drifted up to 10/1 then wildly roller-coasted up and down on the odds board, thruout the wagering.....Each time there was a wild swing, I bet more on her....

After being parked to the 3/8ths I thought I was doomed, but she just kept rolling along, spanking the leader as she went by him, and she won it in a hand-ride....she ended up paying something like $8.80 I think....

You never know when or where she will turn up with a horse, as I have seen her race in many different places....Her horses always seem race-ready, and try hard....

Go Annette Lorentzon !!....:jump:

best,