The cheerleading at CNBC

[Valuist]

I really need to get Bloomberg or the Fox Business Channel. Other than Fast Money, CNBC is just crap. They spent a good portion of yesterday fawning over the jobs report. The cheerleading and giddiness were reminiscent of the nonsense that went on back in 1999. The market has had a great rally in the past 5 months but does anybody really see improvement within the economy? I don't, nor do others I talk to. I think the market is setting up for a massive train wreck. Consider the headwinds:

1. Real unemployment is obviously much higher than the government numbers since those that are no longer eligible are not counted.
2. The Obama administration will destroy the U.S. economy. While the situation he inherited was bad, policies like cap & trade and universal health care could push the deficit to FOURTEEN digits (that's over 10 trillion) in less than 10 years. When he entered office, the number was at about 1/2 a trillion. By the end of this year, the number is expected to be closing in on the $2 trillion mark.
3. Housing---why would anyone cheer new housing starts? We currently have 11 months inventory of unsold homes. I heard one economist make an interesting analogy; homebuilders are like puppies. Puppies will eat until they make themselves sick. Builders will build until they bankrupt themselves.
4. At what point do the Chinese stop buying our Treasuries? That will happen and it will be sooner rather than later.
5. Rising commodity prices will cripple the U.S. consumer. The U.S. consumer shut down for 6 months or so but has started going thru withdrawal and gotten the urge to spend. But the credit is much tighter now. Don't need a PhD to see where this is going.

So if you see an idiot like Dennis Kneal going on about how he told everyone the recession is over, just remember we have a great chance to go back into recession, probably by early 2010.

[lamboguy]

I really need to get Bloomberg or the Fox Business Channel. Other than Fast Money, CNBC is just crap. They spent a good portion of yesterday fawning over the jobs report. The cheerleading and giddiness were reminiscent of the nonsense that went on back in 1999. The market has had a great rally in the past 5 months but does anybody really see improvement within the economy? I don't, nor do others I talk to. I think the market is setting up for a massive train wreck. Consider the headwinds:

1. Real unemployment is obviously much higher than the government numbers since those that are no longer eligible are not counted.
2. The Obama administration will destroy the U.S. economy. While the situation he inherited was bad, policies like cap & trade and universal health care could push the deficit to FOURTEEN digits (that's over 10 trillion) in less than 10 years. When he entered office, the number was at about 1/2 a trillion. By the end of this year, the number is expected to be closing in on the $2 trillion mark.
3. Housing---why would anyone cheer new housing starts? We currently have 11 months inventory of unsold homes. I heard one economist make an interesting analogy; homebuilders are like puppies. Puppies will eat until they make themselves sick. Builders will build until they bankrupt themselves.
4. At what point do the Chinese stop buying our Treasuries? That will happen and it will be sooner rather than later.
5. Rising commodity prices will cripple the U.S. consumer. The U.S. consumer shut down for 6 months or so but has started going thru withdrawal and gotten the urge to spend. But the credit is much tighter now. Don't need a PhD to see where this is going.

So if you see an idiot like Dennis Kneal going on about how he told everyone the recession is over, just remember we have a great chance to go back into recession, probably by early 2010.i have had no less than 5 people call to tell me they are missing this big run in the market. i tell them that the market is going up on air. probably gonna get to s+p 1100 and then start expecting 2000 point down days on the dow. maybe something like 3 torcherous down days in a row. there are plenty of guys going short right now, i believe just a tad early.we shall see.

[boxcar]

Back in!? We're not even out of it yet!

Boxcar

[Valuist]

Back in!? We're not even out of it yet!

Boxcar

They always declare that stuff after the fact. I think it was last September when they officially ruled that the recession started in December 2007. I can just see next January they'll decide the current recession ended in September 2009......and while they are saying that will likely will be back in another recession.

[Tom]

Obama said the market was no indicator when it was low, now he is claiming that it's a good sign. He lies like a rug.

We have massive unemployment, huge, crushing debt, no sign of manufacturing jobs coming back, and a inept government that lies to us.

We are in deep do do.
The only thing the Bear Market did for us is confirm what the bear did and where he did it.

I have absolutely no reason to ever trust the government or wall street ever again. Banks - never did trust them. I'm a Jesse James fan. Banks are evil.

[lamboguy]

Obama said the market was no indicator when it was low, now he is claiming that it's a good sign. He lies like a rug.

We have massive unemployment, huge, crushing debt, no sign of manufacturing jobs coming back, and a inept government that lies to us.

We are in deep do do.
The only thing the Bear Market did for us is confirm what the bear did and where he did it.

I have absolutely no reason to ever trust the government or wall street ever again. Banks - never did trust them. I'm a Jesse James fan. Banks are evil.as bad as obama is in his first term, he will be 10 times worse if he gets in the second time

[cj's dad]

as bad as obama is in his first term, he will be 10 times worse if he gets in the second time

The most pitiful excuse for a President in my lifetime !!

Lefties, please don't report me to the White House !!

At least not until after Saratoga !

[boxcar]

Pitiful but very dangerous.

Boxcar
P.S. Oops, I forgot to add -- far more so than "man-made" global warming.

[DJofSD]

FWIW, my investment partner quit watching CNBC when DR left. He started to watch Bloomburg but after a couple of weeks when asked, he did not think Bloomberg was any better or worse than CNBC. He continues to watch Bloomberg -- probably b/c it is a subscription for us on TWC -- but will occasionally watch CNBC.

[DJofSD]

So if you see an idiot like Dennis Kneal going on about how he told everyone the recession is over, just remember we have a great chance to go back into recession, probably by early 2010. Dennis is just an idiot. If his puss shows up on any program I happen to be watching, it gets turned off, immediately. It's too bad CNBC does not benefit in some way to get that kind of immediate feedback -- put this guys face on the TV, lose a viewer.

[toetoe]

I'm patiently waiting for a vitriolic routine about King Barack from the great Will Durst ( :lol: ), an absolutely laughable fellow --- except when he's cracking jokes ( :sleeping: ). Have been holding my breath ... am starting to turn blue. Maybe it's that King Barack is just so much better at presiding than Babykiller Shrub ever was ? :confused: .

[DJofSD]

Bushy and bush-baby -- they're both from the same mold. A different letter behind their name only means they lie about different things.

[ArlJim78]

CNBC for the most part is unwatchable. I switch between Bloomberg and Fox Business.

Who knows why the market has risen so much, I don't think its sustainable because nothing in the real economy is growing. also there is still much debt to clear out.

the jobs number yesterday was nothing to get excited about because what is happening now is that big numbers of people are falling off the roles on the back end. the number of people working continues to decline and as long as that happens I don't know how people can act like its time to pop open the champagne.

this thing could fall apart again this fall.

[BlueShoe]

This huge rally has gone way too far too fast.With fundamentals looking so bad,as others have mentioned,the bulls and those that think good times are back may have built castles in the sand.Some very sharp guys are predicting a sharp selloff in September-October,with the market perhaps even hitting the March lows.Wish that I had the nerve and the capital to invest in shorts,but have always felt that this was a bit like bridge jumping at the track;if you are very wrong you will lose a great deal of money in a very short time.About the only thing I want to buy in the near future is TIPS,when all this printing press money enters the system inflation will come roaring back and interest rates are going to go up sharply.

[Black Ruby]

Here's an appraisal of the economy that I think most of you on here will agree with. http://www.counterpunch.com/whitney08102009.html

[Tom]

CNBC for the most part is unwatchable.


I gotta disagree with you here.
CNBC is ALWAYS unwatchable! :lol:

[DJofSD]

Maria, Becky and a few others makes it bearable.

[ArlJim78]

I gotta disagree with you here.
CNBC is ALWAYS unwatchable! :lol:
normally I would agree with you, but yesterday I saw a video link from a great segment they did. they actually had knowledgable guests that were given plenty of time to speak. i'll try to find the link. there were no cheerleaders on this segment.

edit: watch this (http://www.zerohedge.com/article/mike-steinhardt-no-one-long-term-bullish) one. I thought it was a pretty good panel.

[chickenhead]

anyone see the piece they did on NorCal? I wasn't sure what to expect, but they actually covered it very well. Very accurate.

[Valuist]

anyone see the piece they did on NorCal? I wasn't sure what to expect, but they actually covered it very well. Very accurate.

You mean the Marijuana show?

[chickenhead]

Yes. Their specials are well done.

[rastajenk]

Just now I was flipping around, and CNBC had ten, that's right, ten, one-oh, double digits, talking heads in their little frames on all at once. It's hard enough for two or three yakkers to take turns and be heard; who in their infinite wisdom thought that 10 could manage it? :D The topic, as far as I could tell, was the health care reform debate, so of course everybody was amped up an extra notch or two anyway. It was almost as unwatchable as Olbermann. :ThmbDown:

[sandpit]

Who knows why the market has risen so much, I don't think its sustainable because nothing in the real economy is growing. also there is still much debt to clear out.

this thing could fall apart again this fall.

I know next to nothing about the market, but for several months now I have heard more than one national radio/tv guy say the stock market is having a fire sale and people should be investing. Maybe that is part of what is driving prices up?

[LottaKash]

as bad as obama is in his first term, he will be 10 times worse if he gets in the second time

The way things are going, in 4-years, we may not have a choice any longer....

best,

[DJofSD]

Spoken like a true loyalist. Long live the king.

[RaceBookJoe]

CNBC for the most part is unwatchable. I switch between Bloomberg and Fox Business.

Who knows why the market has risen so much, I don't think its sustainable because nothing in the real economy is growing. also there is still much debt to clear out.

the jobs number yesterday was nothing to get excited about because what is happening now is that big numbers of people are falling off the roles on the back end. the number of people working continues to decline and as long as that happens I don't know how people can act like its time to pop open the champagne.

this thing could fall apart again this fall.

I am not saying I know..but heres my best guess, through reading/research. The markets seem to be controlled and i think it went down something like this. End of May, Geitner went to China and i bet their leaders gave him an ultimatum. The were heavily invested in the US Market and TBonds. Unless the markets went up so they could profit China was probably gonna unload...and no more buying. This would have crushed our economy...all you have to do is look at the charts from that meeting through July...and remember that normally this is a slowdown season.
The market has moved well over 1000 points, when in the 2 months previous, the market barely moved. This is one reason and probably the main reason why i think the markets are controlled and why they have moved.
So heres the question.....how do you/we profit from it?? Buy when THEY buy and sell when THEY sell. As a reminded..this isnt all from between my ears...just piecing things together. rbj

[DJofSD]

A way to profit from all of that falderal is currency arbitrage. But then you're swimming in shark invested waters with the likes of Soros.

[Valuist]

I am not saying I know..but heres my best guess, through reading/research. The markets seem to be controlled and i think it went down something like this. End of May, Geitner went to China and i bet their leaders gave him an ultimatum. The were heavily invested in the US Market and TBonds. Unless the markets went up so they could profit China was probably gonna unload...and no more buying. This would have crushed our economy...all you have to do is look at the charts from that meeting through July...and remember that normally this is a slowdown season.
The market has moved well over 1000 points, when in the 2 months previous, the market barely moved. This is one reason and probably the main reason why i think the markets are controlled and why they have moved.
So heres the question.....how do you/we profit from it?? Buy when THEY buy and sell when THEY sell. As a reminded..this isnt all from between my ears...just piecing things together. rbj

The TBT, the ETF that is short the 10 year US Treasuries is one way to play it. Its not a matter of if, but when, China will stop buying our Treasuries.

[robert99]

Here's an appraisal of the economy that I think most of you on here will agree with. http://www.counterpunch.com/whitney08102009.html

Sadly those appraisals are closer to reality than the hopeless financial media ever report. Everything is about the price indicators of the minute being the truth rather than than the fundamentals of how economies actually work. Bloomberg is dull but also still falls into the trap of never testing their contributor's daft theories and alarmingly basic ignorance of the knowledge to do their jobs.

The stock exchange once was about supporting enterprise and funding innovations. Now it is just a pure gambling enterprise with the numbers indicating winners and losers.

Once recessions had a compensating benefit in removing tired and failing companies so that resources and budding entrepreneurs could be released into new and upcoming industries. Public finance only went into projects that would have higher future benefit than costs. Neither of those happen now - the giant companies export jobs and skills overseas and the smaller companies shrivel without the life blood of credit and investment. Public money disappears down a hole.

Only bright spot on Bloomberg is how much we can win betting on the number of words Chris Valerio can get into one minute - whether she is on helium or not.

[RaceBookJoe]

The TBT, the ETF that is short the 10 year US Treasuries is one way to play it. Its not a matter of if, but when, China will stop buying our Treasuries.

Good choice Valuist...and with the TBT you can also play the options...my favorites are the deep-in-the-money options that have a delta around 80 and expire 3-6 months past my sell date. Wishing you good fortune. rbj