Preakness Thoughts And Picks

[PaceAdvantage]

http://www.paceadvantage.com/Preakness_2003.htm

Value play is Midway Road at 7-1 or higher....numbers say Peace Rules still the better horse, but not by much over Funny Cide....

If pace is moderate, should be exciting finish...if pace is quick, like I expect, I think Midway Road will upset...

[Richard]

PA,
I think another potential upset is Ten Cents A Shine.If you review the Derby results charts you'll see he made some serious gains.

[keilan]

PA -- Agreed "Midway Road" is a solid value play, this horse is sitting on a big number. If he looks good in the walking ring and post parade I will be using him. I expect at least 10-1 on this horse.

[GR1@HTR]

Early analysis:
10 cent shine and Kissin Saint to bring value to the exotics...

[midnight]

I don't see Funny Cide in the money today. He's going to have a major traffic problem with the 1, 2, 4, 6 and 8 all leaving. The 2 (Cherokee's Boy) and 8 (New York Hero) should be adamant about the pace, with 7 (Peace Rules) looking for a spot to tuck in behind them. The 4 (Kissin Saint) and 6 (Midway Road) will also be going early. This leaves Funny Cide between a rock and a hard place. He'll probably have to use some energy to clear the 4 and 6, may have to go three-wide into the turn, and at best will end up a couple of lengths behind Peace Rules----a trip that he isn't comfortable with (the Derby was similar, but he got lucky and found the rail before the first turn and benefitted from Peace Rules pressing a sucidal pace). When the real running starts, Peace Rules will get first-run. Funny Cide will try to go after him, and the combination of the wet/muddy track, the traffic problems early, and the unaccustomed trip should do him in. Another problem is that he won't be 12-1 again like he was in the Derby. If it runs this way, Peace Rules winning by a few lengths, with Kissin Saint and Midway Road picking up the pieces, and Senor Swinger (1A) making one move late to possibly get a piece. The others just don't have it in them, in my opinion. Of course a muddy Pimlico track and a thousand other things can lead to unpredictable results.

And of course, the race can also run 5,000 other ways, some of which will get Funny Cide a good position early and give him a chance. Even with that, I don't see him repeating his Derby effort. Sentimentally, I hope I'm wrong, but I don't bet out of sentiment.

My Tri: 7/4-6/1(a)-4-6

[Suff]

I'm rooting hard for Funnycide. I won't bet him. But I'm a big Fan of NY racing and I think it will be great for racing and even better for NY racing to get him a shot at the TC in NY.

I like Barclay Tagg and I I'd like to see him have a shot as well.


I think FC looks like the one to beat from the 60 minutes I spent looking at the PP's. The Post I like for his trip. The Chute is so far back its damn near into the turn.... The Horse has almost 3 furlongs to work out a spot. Its almost like one of those ONE TURN routes they run at Belmont.

My Instructions to Santos.

I think I'd like to see FUNNY as many as 6-7 off the lead in to the first turn.... Put him in the two or three path up the straight away and watch how many go up to the lead pack. When they come out of the first turn..... If the field is bunched up, up front. Put him RIGHT ON THE RAIL going up the back stretch. Ask him for a little run 1/2 way into the far turn to get into your Closing position. Get within 2-3 lengths of the leaders as they break the turn. 1/8th pole.....its go time. Ask the horse for all he has...

[ljb]

I don't expect to find any value in this race.
Think funny cide can pull it off but need at least 3-1 for the play . Peace Rules gets a play at 4-1.
May consider Kissin saint at 6-1 this one could be part of it .
I see funny cide, peace rules and new york hero as early leaders. Think Kissin Saint will get up at the stretch for part of it.
depending on tote action i may box these three in exa. and/or make a place bet or two.
If I'm around near post time I may post a later opinion.
Best of luck to all today.
ljb

[MikeDee]

I can agree with all of the above as contenders except for midway road. Big jump in class and I don't think he can compete at this level.

[JustRalph]

Originally posted by MikeDee
I can agree with all of the above as contenders except for midway road. Big jump in class and I don't think he can compete at this level.

My numbers (ok...equisim numbers from the Bris file) show him around 8 back of funny cide and about two behind peace rules who is second. So...I don't know. If he improves he is on the board. This of course assumes they run near to the same races they did last time. He seems to be an up and coming horse and these are the kind of horses you can make money on. Reminds me of Western Pride in the WV Derby a few years back. He was coming out of allowance company into the WV Derby and they wrote him off. he had improved 3 races straight and was overlooked to the tune of 20-1 or maybe more
I can't remember exactly. But it was a nice score for me.

I am not real excited about his race. There are probably more advantageous races to bet on Today. I would like to see Funny Cide win it just to piss off a few more people. God Bless us Geldings.........(Does a Vasectomy Count?)

[Tom]

Bad race. Only two horses - PR and FC really fit the profile of a good winner - in terms of Beyers earned in graded stakes compettion at a mile and an eighth. And both really look shaky to me. I don't expect either to improve at all and I thinkg both are ready to regress. That leaves the race open for anything at all that feels good and like the track today.
I think I will wheel Kissin Saint in the place hole and hope for "Shock and Awe" on top.
but I will wait until I see how the track is playing later.
So far today, I have heard the track dries really well, that the track doesn't dry very well, that it will definately be sloppy, that it will probably be fast, yadda, yadda, yadda.
The only thing I am sure of is that it is the 11th race today!

[JustRalph]

After watching the first two races.....that track looks like Crap in the turn before the stretch. Standing water. It looks deep in the stretch too. I don't think anybody wants to be on the rail in the stretch. They seem to be losing ground down on the rail. But we are only two races in.........who knows.......but it's wet as hell right now. :cool:

[Rpd]

2003 Preakness Picks


1st - Faufa's Warrier

2nd - Entry (Scrimshaw/Senor Swinger)

3rd - Funny Cide

4th - New York Hero

[ceejay]

My bets:

Alive in Special/Preakness DD with Cherokee's Boy and Midway Road.

Tri Box: 2-6-7-9
Ex: 7-9 with 2-6

[David McKenzie]

The Preakness Stakes

PIM Race 12: 2-7 (9-8)

[delayjf]

I see Peace Rules and Schrimshaw bouncing. I think funny Cide will run a good race. But I agree with Keilan and PA with Midway Road. His two races at Kee were run against a extreme rail bias, so I feel they are deflated a bit. We don't know that he can't run against this class, only that he hasn't done it yet. We'll see today.

[tboles]

Attaching Procapper Picks Report on the Preakness:

Preakness.rtf

I know its almost post time but wanted to get my 2 cents in.
Looks like a tight race btw the Funny Cide and Peace Rules.
One would think this is not a good betting opportunity. I am
going to take an exacta bet on the 9/7 over 1/4/6 and the 1/4/6
over the 9/7

[linrom1]

Bet the Gr/ro colt, only one in the race.

[Kentucky Bred]

You were right...Midway Road was the value play of the race.

Kentucky Bred

[MikeDee]

I'll second that KB nice call by everyone who saw midway rd as a contender, made a nice ex and/or tri. Hope you had em!

[Stonepony]

I had the 1-6-7-9 boxed for everything except super. I tried to save money by going 7-9w7-9w1-6. So I cost myself 700 bucks.

[GR1@HTR]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&u=/030517/161/43ixz.html&e=9&ncid=996