Karma Moves

[MANOWAR]

When do karma moves really work? In what type of situations? I know karma moves don't work all the time, but what should I be looking for in order to make a profit from these kind of moves?

[GameTheory]

Karma Moves = trainer moves = change of equipment, surface, jockey, etc, right?

If you don't have records of what the specific trainer likes to do, then there are a few things you want:

A) Decent odds. You're only gonna win about 15% of these.

B) A karma move, maybe more than one.

C) Some hint that this just isn't a desperation move to get something going, but that this horse really is ready to move forward today, or at least the trainer believes he is.

For example:

If we're changing jockey, is it to a jockey this horse has won with before?

Did this horse lead or was within a length at the first call last time when he usually isn't? (This is a strong signal on any horse, but coupled with some angle today blinkers on/off, second off layoff, favored jockey, etc. is a very good indicator.)

If switching surfaces, does he have the breeding?

If stretching out, does he have any early speed? (Don't bet on horses stretching out with no speed, even if they were fast closing in sprints -- that "they need more distance" stuff is crap.)

If this is a horse at least 4 years old and he's never shown the ability to win at this level, then forget it. If this is a young horse trying something for the first time, and you've got some evidence, go for it.

We're just looking for a decent hint that he can do what he's being asked today. We're generally going to be coming off an out-of-the money performance last time. Karma moves coming off an already strong race don't mean much...

[MANOWAR]

Game

That's exactly what I'm refering to. Trainer moves.

Calling this tread Karma Moves wasn't a good idea. Should have called it Trainer Moves.

[GameTheory]

See the thread on the AP 7th in General Racing Discussion. Karma move heaven!

[MANOWAR]

Game

Thanks. That thread really helped me out.