NEW RESEARCH PROJECT PICKS

[markgoldie]

Hello forum. I am looking to research a selection method and follow it for profitability. Being a lazy type, I thought that posting the selections on the forum might keep my motivation up for continuing the necessary work (but no guarantees). This is not my major method of handicapping and play, but just a thought based on some pretty strong theoretical underpinnings.

Even though I am not a win bettor, I am doing this on the basis of win ROI.

The rules are the following: Horses selected must have an off-time odds of 5-2 or better and I am expecting an average odds of over 3-1.

I am omitting some selections which are virtually certain NOT to make the odds-cut. I am also including some horses which I will segregate that are UNLIKELY (in my opinion) to make the odds-cut of 5-2. But, you never know.

On rare occasion, I might post two horses in the same race. The rule is, play the one over 5-2 (if one is) OR play both if they both are over 5-2.

These selections are ONLY for tracks that I normally follow, simply because I am not downloading pps from all tracks just for this exercise.

Without further ado, I will post first selections on a fresh post.

Mark

[markgoldie]

Selections for 8/5/09:


Qualify but are unlikely to make the 5-2 odds' cut:

EVD R4 #3 It Just Got Better ML.5/2

PID R2 #1 Bobbie's Devil ML 5/2
PID R4 #6 A Nice Splash ML 3/1

HOO R8 #4 Monkey Dust ML 5/2
HOO R9 #2 Proud Jefe ML 2/1


Qualify and are more likely to make 5-2 odds' cut:

ARL R2 #5 Willie To Go ML 6/1
ARL R3 #6 D' Code ML 9/2

DMR R5 #2 Village Lady ML 7/2

HOO R4 #6 Terry D ML 4/1
HOO R5 #10 Angry Pirate ML 7/2

PID R5 #8 Private Exchange ML 7/2
PID R6 #8 Zun's Girl ML 7/2

PEN R3 #3 Case Notes ML 9/2
PEN R5 #2 Lucky Sila ML 4/1
PEN R7 #1 Gone Prospecting ML 3/1
PEN R7 #9 Euro Code ML 10/1 (Note: Follow 2-horse in same race rule).

EVD R11 #10 Dekalb Rex ML 6/1

End of selections. Note: Suffolk and Monmouth were considered but no plays.

[markgoldie]

Note: Feel free to post any comments, opinions, selections, etc. at any time. Always interested in the ideas of others.

Mark

[positive4th]

I'm not sure what to comment on b/c I don't know on what basis you were selecting your picks - - - this could be brilliant or ridiculous, but I have no idea b/c I'm not sure what made some horses eligible and some not. If you're essentially trying to predict overlays on horses have a ML of 5/2 or higher, then I guess we'll see if it works out and they go off like you want.

But really, again, without some more details on the selection method, we don't have much to comment on!

[positive4th]

I'm not sure what to comment on b/c I don't know on what basis you were selecting your picks - - - this could be brilliant or ridiculous, but I have no idea b/c I'm not sure what made some horses eligible and some not. If you're essentially trying to predict overlays on horses have a ML of 5/2 or higher, then I guess we'll see if it works out and they go off like you want.

But really, again, without some more details on the selection method, we don't have much to comment on!

And I really don't mean any of this to be rude, I am just honestly not able to comment much without some further details........we all have to have reasons for making our selections, and you gave some of yours as they pertain to the off-time odds. But to call it a research project, in my estimation, requires a little more detail on the parameters before useful input from others can be expected........

[markgoldie]

And I really don't mean any of this to be rude, I am just honestly not able to comment much without some further details........we all have to have reasons for making our selections, and you gave some of yours as they pertain to the off-time odds. But to call it a research project, in my estimation, requires a little more detail on the parameters before useful input from others can be expected........
No, I didn't mean that you had to comment immediately. What I was really trying to express is that I invite anyone to barge right in on the thread and say whatever you want. As far as the selection process itself, naturally I will not spell it all out in the POSSIBLE, but unlikely event that it might prove substantially profitable. However, that being said, two things: (1) I am a serious and successful handicapper and not a quack and (2) much of my core theory has been laid out on the forum in the past. My opening thread where I introduced myself to the forum contains a good deal of the theoretical underpinnings of my handicapping. If you are interested, you could look that thread up. I think it's safe to say that the methodology in making the selections at hand closely follow my theoretical philosophy of handicapping.

Mark

[CBedo]

Good luck with the project. You and I were on the same page at Hoosier today to a large extent (which didn't really work out--mostly from the odds being too so low).

[markgoldie]

Results of first day's selections:

Unfortunately, the number of plays was cut down considerably by odds that were too low. Please note that I am not particularly interested in what these lower odds horses do, since they do not qualify under the parameters of the system. However, yesterday, there were 9 such examples of horses with odds too low. 5 of them won, three more ran second, and 1 was out. There was a win profit associated with playing these, and certainly a place profit as well. If someone wants to keep statistics on these, fine.

We also lost 2 selections which were scratched.

That left us with 5 system plays. Since the system is based on win ROI, the actual finish of the horses is irrelevant. In other words, for my purpose, the horse either won or lost (with even a narrow second place finish constituting a loss).

The playable horses were:

DMR R5 Village Lady........Lost
EVD R11 Dekalb Rex........Lost
ARL R2 Willie To To.........Won......$19.60
ARL R3 D' Code...............Lost
PEN R5 Lucky Sila...........Won......$12.00

Total Wagered $10 Total Returned $31.60

Too early to start calculating ROI. Meaningless at this point.

Will post today's plays as soon as I do them.

Mark

[Anderon]

Nice Job Mark...!!! :)

[markgoldie]

Thanks Anderon. Today's plays will be up soon.

[markgoldie]

Plays for 8/6/09: (Remember guidelines, 5-2 closing odds or better. Again I have omitted horses which in my opinion have no chance of being at least 5-2.)

LAD R4 #3 Ima Champali ML 4/1

HOO R5 #4 Win Grammy Boy ML 4/1
HOO R6 #4 Waki Bird ML 7/2

PEN R1 #4 Dressed In White ML 6/1
PEN R3 #7 Fortunistic ML 3/1

EVD R7 #6 King Nasrullah ML 5/2

EMD R4 #3 Ax Me A Question ML 5/2
EMD R6 #6 Surf Academy ML 7/2

CBY R6 #2 Wild Shifter ML 7/2
CBY R7 #6 Ma Barker ML 4/1

That's it. The following tracks were considered but no suitable plays found: ARL, CRC, MON, OHIO 7&7, PID, DMR. Kind of slim pickings. Let's hope we get more in future.

Mark

[CBedo]

That's it. The following tracks were considered but no suitable plays found: ARL, CRC, MON, OHIO 7&7, PID, DMR. Kind of slim pickings. Let's hope we get more in future.Not sure how many tracks you look at on the weekends, but for my simplistic model, the number of bets explodes Friday-Sunday with 1) the number of tracks being much higher, and 2) something about structure of the weekend cards seems to give me a higher number of bets per track on average for some reason.

As the number of 2 year old races increases through the year, that hurts my model's number of bets since I'm currently passing them.

Good luck today.

[CBedo]

Mark, I notice (small sample) that there seems to be a midwest to west bias in the tracks. Is that conincidental, or does it have to do with what tracks you can wager, or is it something else (do you just like to sleep late, lol)?

[markgoldie]

Mark, I notice (small sample) that there seems to be a midwest to west bias in the tracks. Is that conincidental, or does it have to do with what tracks you can wager, or is it something else (do you just like to sleep late, lol)?
No, I look at some East Coast tracks like CRC, SUF, FLK, MON, also Kentucky but I bet with an offshore rebate service which doesn't carry DEL, New York, or PHA. You're right about weekend cards because you don't get all these maiden races with firsters. I filter them out. Also filter out turf because the numbers are not reliable (or should I say AS reliable) as the dirt numbers. But right now my biggest problem is short fields. It's really hard for me to make any headway when playing into these 5 and 6-horse events that we have all over the place. Even if you have 8 or 9 horses carded, by the time you get the scratches, you've often lost 2 or more. IMO we'd be better off with less tracks and bigger fields. But that's just me. Some guys love betting big numbers on 3-5 shots when there are only 4 other horses that can beat you. But I doubt if they're making any money doing it.

[CBedo]

No, I look at some East Coast tracks like CRC, SUF, FLK, MON, also Kentucky but I bet with an offshore rebate service which doesn't carry DEL, New York, or PHA. You're right about weekend cards because you don't get all these maiden races with firsters. I filter them out. Also filter out turf because the numbers are not reliable (or should I say AS reliable) as the dirt numbers. But right now my biggest problem is short fields. It's really hard for me to make any headway when playing into these 5 and 6-horse events that we have all over the place. Even if you have 8 or 9 horses carded, by the time you get the scratches, you've often lost 2 or more. IMO we'd be better off with less tracks and bigger fields. But that's just me. Some guys love betting big numbers on 3-5 shots when there are only 4 other horses that can beat you. But I doubt if they're making any money doing it.
My first quick filters in development were a) no turf, b) no 2 year olds (although I'm finding subsets that look promising), & c) no maiden specials (due to first time starters, and lack of information). I have found however that maiden claimers are doing pretty good for me. The hit rate there is a bit lower than overall, but the avg odds offset that.

I agree on the field size comments completely. Some solid 3/1ish horses in a 8 horse field get pounded down to nothingness in these 5 horse fields. The roi of my model correlates somewhat to field size--the bigger the better!

[markgoldie]

Results for Thurs. 8/6:

Once again we had lots of non-qulaifiers due to low odds.

Three horses qualified and all lost. They were:
HOO R5 #4 WinGrammy Boy
HOO R6 #4 Waki Bird
CBY R7 #6 Ma Barker

Running total is now 8 plays

Inv. $16

Ret. $31.60

Will post today's plays when done.

Mark

[markgoldie]

Picks for 8/7/09 (See rules of play on page 1)

Will now post picks in post-time order, rather than track order:

Ohio R4 #8 Just Call Me Mr K ML 7/2
HOO R5 #9 Good Morning Nell ML 5/2
HOO R6 #5 Catch Up Cat ML 5/2
Ohio R9 #4 Itsaffirmed ML 7/2
FL R9 #1 Wiseman's Jet ML 4/1
LAD R7 #4 Real Eddy ML 9/2
EVD R2 #7 Easy On The Co Two ML 7/2
MNR R5 #10 Miss Guided ML 5/1
PEN R7 #6 Like Gangbusters ML 9/2
PRM R5 #7 Alyssouthern Storm ML 7/2
PEN R10 #1 Bid from Bourtai ML 4/1
CBY R 8 #4 Wide Ide ML 7/2

That's it. Hopefully, the odds will hold up on most of these. The HOO pair of ML 5/2 shots may not. Also, the ML oddsmaker in Ohio is probably off on the two ML's of 7/2 on these horses. Likely to be much lower. But I listed these horses just in case. Quite a few valid selections were not listed because I am sure they will never reach the 5-2 wagering threshold.
The MNR selection faces a tough post at a flat mile but I'm hoping we get extra odds because of it. Also, she should have enough tactical speed to avoid being hung too wide in the first turn.
A number of additional tracks were scanned but without suitable plays. Will not bother to list them. What's the difference?

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Results for 8/7/09:

Once aqgain, lots of non-qualifiers despite the fact that most of the selections were not morning line favorites. This could mean one of two things: Either the morning lines are inaccurate or someone is pounding these selections. I think we can safely rule out the second possibility.

At any rate, there was one scratch and only two horses qualified for play at 5-2 or over. They were:

MNR R5 #10 Miss Guided ......Lost
PRM R5 #7 Alyssouthernstrom.....Won Paid $7.40

Running total: 10 selections
Investment $20
Return $39.00

Will post today's selections when done.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Sat. 8/8/09:

In post time order. Hopefully, we get more plays.

HOO R5 #4 Runaway Jake ML 5/2
HOO R6 #2 Caught In A Net ML 4/1
FL R5 #9 Wild Logic ML 5/1
OHIO R7 #6 Apache Chief ML 5/2
OHIO R13 #6 Smokem Cohiba ML 5/1
ELP R10 #5 Starstreak ML 5/1
DMR R4 #8 Yankee Station 3/1
EVD R2 #10 Hometown Hottie ML 7/2
PRM R2 #3 Chesapeake Bay ML 4/1
MNR R6 #4 Raka ML 9/2

That's it. Once again, many plays were filtered out because they are virtually certain not to make the necessary 5/2 odds stipulation. As you can see by the ML odds that are associated with these picks and the many selections that go off at lower odds than needed, this is meant to be a rather high strike-rate selection system. My gut tells me it should produce close to 30% winners and the average odds should be somewhat over 3-1. But, we shall see.

Mark

[markgoldie]

Once again, too many horses bet down. Only three qualified for play.

For my purposes, they all lost, although two ran second. Interestingly, one had appeared to have won the race on the live feed and was called the winner by the race announcer at River Downs but the photo revealed he lost. The announcer and I were baffled. They didn't post the photo, although presumably it was available at the track.

This makes 13 total plays for a return of $39.

I am discontinuing the project because it's too much work for so few plays.

Mark

[ryesteve]

I am discontinuing the project because it's too much work for so few plays.Isn't there some way to automate your process? Seems a shame to tank it when your ROI is still +50%.

[GameTheory]

Once again, too many horses bet down. Only three qualified for play.

For my purposes, they all lost, although two ran second. Interestingly, one had appeared to have won the race on the live feed and was called the winner by the race announcer at River Downs but the photo revealed he lost. The announcer and I were baffled. They didn't post the photo, although presumably it was available at the track.
I was watching that. They corrected it -- your horse did win. Check again.

[markgoldie]

Unbelievable. I never saw anything like that before. They posted the 9 horse as the winner and then changed it??!!

Anyway, that makes the results a little better. Now the 13 plays yielded $46.20.

Ryesteve: I guess theoretically, at least, this could be automated. The problem is I take so many things into account, it would take someone far better than me to do it. The other problem is that my main wagering, as I have posted here before is complex gimmicks, mostly superfectas and actually I am a contrarian player. I look for situations with vulnerable favorites and I have had some tremendous scores when low priced chalk runs off the ticket. So I really don't have the kind of mindset that wants to play ON horses. This has made me notice something that I was only vaguely aware of in the past, though. That is, unless we are talking about the biggest-handle tracks, it is very hard to shoot for a specific win odds because they are changing radically after the race starts. Even a decent- handle track like Arlington can have a horse drop a full point after they have been loaded into the gate. These last-minute win-odds fluctuations have no bearing on the gimmick pools, of course, because the gimmick players can't react to these changes.

Anyway, my work load is pretty large as it is. I'll see. Maybe I can keep working it in.

[ryesteve]

Ryesteve: I guess theoretically, at least, this could be automated. The problem is I take so many things into accountAll the more reason to automate as much as you can, so long as we're not talking about subjective criteria. Hope you find the time to continue. Whatever you're doing certainly is working so far.

[markgoldie]

Okay, reviving this thread after two days in which I was very busy.

Recap has the system at 13 plays with a $2 win-bet return of $46.20.

Plays in post-time order. Tues. 8/11

SUF R7 #4 Handsome Reward ML 3/1
Ohio R9 #1 Its In the Blood (Part of entry) 7/2
MNR R1 #7 Peak Of Style M/L 8/1
MNR R6 #3 Bough Breaker ML 12/1
MNR R9 #10 Save Me Some ML 6/1

That's it unfortunately. The MNR selections have unusually high ML odds associated with them, but that's a good thing because MNR is a home of chaos. I know a lot of guys are crying about artificial surfaces and the lack of consistency but trying playing MNR for awhile. I rarely do.

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Results of plays for Tues. 8/11

4 horses qualified for play.

3 failed to win. They were: SUF R7 #4 Handsome Reward; MNR R1 #7 Peak Of Style; and MNR R9 #10 Save Me Some (all 3 were on-the board placings but since this is a win-only system, we don't count that).

There was one winner: MNR R6 #3 Bough Breaker. He paid $22.40.

So, the running totals now are: 17 plays $2 win return $68.60, which would make it a tad over a 100% positive ROI. And as we all are fully aware, these results cannot possibly be sustained.

Mark

[098poi]

Mark keep going till you have at least 100 picks! You're the one who wanted to open a thread to try this so you would stay motivated. Consider this a pep talk. Don't throw in the towel yet.:ThmbUp:

[Donnie]

Nice job Mark!
Was wondering if you would be interested in posting the # / % of place and show horses? Although you may not be looking for these spots, to me, success in these holes help validate the winners. I think a person needs to strike a balance between hit and value and you appear to be hitting a nice balance of both right now.
Here's to continued success!

[markgoldie]

Nice job Mark!
Was wondering if you would be interested in posting the # / % of place and show horses? Although you may not be looking for these spots, to me, success in these holes help validate the winners. I think a person needs to strike a balance between hit and value and you appear to be hitting a nice balance of both right now.
Here's to continued success!
Hey Donnie; Way too busy to do that but if you or someone else wanted to, it's all here on the thread. All you have to do is get the plays and look up the charts on Brisnet or some other results' service.

[Light]

Results of plays for Tues. 8/11

So, the running totals now are: 17 plays $2 win return $68.60, which would make it a tad over a 100% positive ROI. And as we all are fully aware, these results cannot possibly be sustained.

Mark

I've rarely seen anyone posting in this section with that kind of an ROI even with a short run.

I think this is one of the fun side things that some handicappers do. They go to the drawing board like scientists,play around with a few factors and try to crack the riddle. I've come up with something that caught 2 price horses (singled) in a row in its initial start.(6-1 and 11-1). I should be more excited but I've been there,done that and it usually doesn't pan out as well as it starts.But we'll never know unless we give it the real test.

[markgoldie]

Okay. Here we go for Wed. 8/12

SUF R9 #4 Annconda ML 3/1
ARL R6 #3 Brave Hunter ML 3/1
ARL R8 #6 Rose Princess ML 6/1
ARL R8 #5 Super Poni ML 5/1 (same race rule bet either or both at >=5/2)
PEN R2 #5 War Tempo ML 6/1
PEN R6 #8 Mystery Hunter ML 5/2
EVD R10 #7 Toss For Cash ML 6/1

That's it. Notes: The SUF selection is actually the second choice on the ML and we have a large scheduled field. But even with that, I think the ML is off and we may not get the right price. Brave Hunter ARL R6 is the ML fav. at 3/1 but I think we may get the price here. ARL R8 is a very balanced field and we may get the right price on both selections. Mystery Hunter PEN R6 is in a large scheduled field and Brisnet's Prime Power has him ranked 3rd. On the other hand, he has a seemingly huge early-speed advantage over the rest. Will be interesting to see his closing odds. Toss For Cash EVD R10 has a ML of 6/1, but I think the EVD ML odds' maker was having lunch when he put that number on him. Will be much lower but might make the 5/2 stipulation.

GL Mark

[CBedo]

ARL R8 #6 Rose Princess ML 6/1
ARL R8 #5 Super Poni ML 5/1 (same race rule bet either or both at >=5/2)
I thought this seemed like a wide open race....Shows what I know, as the favorite cruised home at 5/2.

I hope since you're a "gimmick" player, you caught a piece of the exacta and/or the trifecta with your posted picks running 2-3.

$45 exacta & $315 tri

[markgoldie]

I thought this seemed like a wide open race....Shows what I know, as the favorite cruised home at 5/2.

I hope since you're a "gimmick" player, you caught a piece of the exacta and/or the trifecta with your posted picks running 2-3.

$45 exacta & $315 tri
I think it WAS an open race. I also think my two horses ran their races as expected but they were victimized by a very big effort on the part of the 8.
I AM a gimmick player but this race didn't fit my criteria for field size. Also, I generally play supers and not tri's. So far I haven't played any of the selections because as I said, it's an experiment at this point. That's not to say there's any lack of seriousness on the part of the selection process. It's based on very sound theory. Also, and I haven't said this before, I make the selections early and I'm not factoring in sloppy tracks. If anyone is playing these and the track is real bad like PEN tonight, I'd back off.

Mark

[Tape Reader]

Isn't there some way to automate your process? Seems a shame to tank it when your ROI is still +50%.

YES! There is. Let's all petition P.A. to sell us his Auto-bet program.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=53321

I'll start with a $700 bid.

Hey, if we all wanted to work for a living, we wouldn't be visiting this site.

[CBedo]

YES! There is. Let's all petition P.A. to sell us his Auto-bet program.

http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=53321

I'll start with a $700 bid.

Hey, if we all wanted to work for a living, we wouldn't be visiting this site.Auto-betting is easy; it's automating what to bet that can be tough!

[Tape Reader]

Auto-betting is easy; it's automating what to bet that can be tough

"if you really want something in this life, you have to work for it. Now quiet! They're about to announce the lottery numbers." --Homer Simpson !

YES! Auto-bet, with a better chance than the lottery.

[markgoldie]

Results for Wed. 8/12:

There were 4 playable horses and none won. As mentioned earlier in the thread, the two horses in ARL R8 both performed well and at nice prices of 6-1 and 10-1 respectively. They finished pretty much next to each other but fell victim to a very sharp winner. War Tempo in the second At PEN did not fire at all in the slop and Mystery Hunter PEN R6 had his expected lead but folded.

We now have 21 plays with a win return of $68.60.

Will post today's plays shortly.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Thurs. 8/13:

MON R2 #4 Four's A Plenty ML 3/1
MON R4 #5 Fiftycentsondollar ML 5/2
CRC R6 #1 Go Go Go ML 5/2
ARL R6 Officer Frank ML 7/2
HOO R6 #6 Cowboy Contender ML 5/2.
PID R8 #4 Baby Clay ML 3/1

Unfortunately, that's it. Notes: The MON R4 and CRC R6 selections might make necessary odds because the scheduled fields are very large. The HOO selection probably won't make odds but put in just in case.

[markgoldie]

Adding two plays which I missed earlier for Thurs.:

CBY R6 #1 Silver Senorita ML 5/1
CBY R7 High Life Lady Ml 9/2

Please add to earlier plays.

Mark

[markgoldie]

Note: I am removing the CRC R6 pick of GO Go Go. I made a mistake. The horse does not qualify on recency. Sorry for error.

Mark

[GameTheory]

Officer Frank is running in AP R5, not R6....

[markgoldie]

Officer Frank is running in AP R5, not R6....
Thanks for that correction.

Results for day:

One scratch and once again, lots of non-qualifiers. The late removal of Go Go Go was a non-issue as the odds were too low and she ran second.

Only two qualifiers, both at CBY: Silver Senorita won in the 6th and paid $9.60. High Life Lady ran 3rd in the 7th, which is a loss.

Results: 2 plays, 1 winner for $9.60

Running total: 23 plays return $78.20

Haven't been following the non-qualifiers but I know they're winning at a reasonable rate. If someone has those numbers and would like to post it, I'd appreciate it. Thanks.

Mark

[PaceAdvantage]

Auto-betting is easy; it's automating what to bet that can be tough!Bingo!

[markgoldie]

Selections for Friday, Aug. 14:

Looks like we have more selections than normal, but I'm working the final touches as I post, so we'll see. Here goes:

HOO R2 #8 Asheba's Glitter ML 5/2
FL R5 #6 Deewanee ML 5/2
CRC R5 #6 Gianysbee ML 3/1
LAD R5 #3 Judge Parkr ML 3/1
MON R9 #1 Celestial Flight ML 7/2
Ohio R13 #3 Megone ML 6/1
PID R2 Mack's Monarch ML 4/1
LAD R9 #10 Handsome Wish ML 3/1
PEN R5 #3 Golden Tree ML 5/2
EVD R6 #3 Yukon Bandit ML 8/1
EMD R3 #2 Eyelshes ML 3/1
EMD R7 #7 Toss'm Again ML 3/1
EMD R8 #4 Hot Tub Party ML 5/2
HST R7 #1 Destiny's Home ML 7/2

That's it. Let's hope we get some playable odds. In going through the cards today, I see some big time chalk. Should be a hectic day for Anderon.

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Here are the results for Friday 8/14/09:

We had one scratch and a bunch of non-qualifiers which wasn't very surprising since the ML odds on many of yesterday's selections were comparitively low. However, the qualifiers perofrmed nicely. They were:

HOO R2 Asheba's Glitter.... won Paid $7.00
LAD R9 Handsome Wish... won Paid $5.20 (went off at 4-1 but won in DH)
EVD R6 Yukon Bandit...... won Paid $13.80
EMD R7 Toss'm Again.... won Paid $10.80

That was all the qualifiers. Running total: 27 plays Return: $115.00

ROI: +112.9%

Note: This is a near-impossible run of good luck. We know this because the non-qualifiers who actually have lower odds are not performing this well. Again, I haven't kept the figures for the non-qualifiers and I'm too busy to do it but if anyone has spare time and would like to run them, all the selections are here on this thread. Also, the place and show figures would be interesting on the non-qualifiers (we can safely assume they are positive on the qualifiers). Bottom line, we cannot not expect the current numbers on qualifying selections to hold up. Still, it's interesting through 27 selections.

Will post today's when finished. Mark

[formula_2002]

Here are the results for Friday 8/14/09:

We had one scratch and a bunch of non-qualifiers which wasn't very surprising since the ML odds on many of yesterday's selections were comparitively low. However, the qualifiers perofrmed nicely. They were:

HOO R2 Asheba's Glitter.... won Paid $7.00
LAD R9 Handsome Wish... won Paid $5.20 (went off at 4-1 but won in DH)
EVD R6 Yukon Bandit...... won Paid $13.80
EMD R7 Toss'm Again.... won Paid $10.80

That was all the qualifiers. Running total: 27 plays Return: $115.00

ROI: +112.9%

Note: This is a near-impossible run of good luck. We know this because the non-qualifiers who actually have lower odds are not performing this well. Again, I haven't kept the figures for the non-qualifiers and I'm too busy to do it but if anyone has spare time and would like to run them, all the selections are here on this thread. Also, the place and show figures would be interesting on the non-qualifiers (we can safely assume they are positive on the qualifiers). Bottom line, we cannot not expect the current numbers on qualifying selections to hold up. Still, it's interesting through 27 selections.

Will post today's when finished. Mark
indeed.
good luck

[markgoldie]

Selections for Saturday 8/15:

Ohio R3 #7 Sister Tea Ml 3/1
Ohio R6 #1 Zydaco ML 7/2
Ohio R7 #1 Levinson ML 3/1
Ohio R10 #1 Forward Wisconsin Ml 4/1
Mon R9 #9 Malibu Prayer ML 7/2
HST R5 #4 Just Like Dreads ML 10/1
EVD R1 #9 Hillbilly Jay ML 7/2
HST R8 #8 Drafting for Speed ML 3/1
PEN R4 #1 Marilyn Plays #1 ML 3/1
EMD R10 #8 Tiger Mtn Road ML 3/1

Notes: Little disappointed that after looking at so many races, this is all we come up with, but it is what it is, as they say.

GL Mark

[GameTheory]

Selections for Saturday 8/15:

Ohio R3 #7 Sister Tea Ml 3/1
Ohio R6 #1 Zydaco ML 7/2
Ohio R7 #1 Levinson ML 3/1
Ohio R10 #1 Forward Wisconsin Ml 4/1
Mon R9 #9 Malibu Prayer ML 7/2
HST R5 #4 Just Like Dreads ML 10/1
EVD R1 #9 Hillbilly Jay ML 7/2
HST R8 #8 Drafting for Speed ML 3/1
PEN R4 #1 Marilyn Plays #1 ML 3/1
EMD R10 #8 Tiger Mtn Road ML 3/1

Notes: Little disappointed that after looking at so many races, this is all we come up with, but it is what it is, as they say.

Ohio R3 contains RUBY TEA and SISTER GAL, but not SISTER TEA...

[markgoldie]

Sorry Game, thought I could skate by with a little scam and take credit for either one (LOL). Sister Gal. Number and ML were correct. Thanks for correction.

Mark

[GameTheory]

Sorry Game, thought I could skate by with a little scam and take credit for either one (LOL). Sister Gal. Number and ML were correct. Thanks for correction.

As if you need the help! I'm gonna go with ANGER RISING (ML 4-1) in this one...

[ryesteve]

However, the qualifiers perofrmed nicely. Bottom line, we cannot not expect the current numbers on qualifying selections to hold up. Still, it's interesting through 27 selections.
"nicely" and "interesting"... you have a flair for the understatement :)

Keep rollin'... :ThmbUp:

[markgoldie]

Results for Sat. Aug. 15:

Only two horses qualified for play by closing at or above 5-2. They were:

MON R9 #9 Malibu Prayer and HST R5 #$ Just Like Dreads.

Both failed to win. So the running total now is: 29 plays, $2 win return $115.

Note: I think I need to remove Hastings from the tracks I consider. The problem is that the jockey strategy on these small tracks with hairpin turns is driven more by getting the proper positioning than anything else. In that, it's more like harness racing than t-bred racing. It's also the reason why I have never had much success in betting Charlestown. In my opinion these tracks have to be played by track specialists who know positioning game much better than I do. As for the horses, their performance is very track-specific, since those that want to go wide on the turns have little chance against the rail-huggers. These are factors that the casual handicapper just can't get a handle on. And so, better to just pass them.

Will post today's picks when they are done.

Mark

[markgoldie]

Selections for Sunday 8/16:

MON R2 #6 Charlie's Diva ML 6/1
FL R2 #7 Bruce Tickets ML 6/1
FL R4 #8 Blue Monster ML 5/1
CRC R5 #2 Trick's Honor ML 5/2
HOO R6 #7 Just Take It ML 5/2
FL R8 Miller's Mint ML 10/1
PID R4 #3 Wonderful Me ML 7/2
GG R8 #9 You're My Boy Blue ML 7/2

That's it.

Note: Not sure what's up with the FL ML odds' maker here. Maybe the normal guy is on vacation but IMO the ML odds on these three FL selections are WAY off. I base this comment not solely on my handicapping skills, but each of the three also have the top Brisnet Prime Power number which is a pretty good predictor of wagering action. Maybe he's looking to pad his odds a little for his own wagering action.

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Results for Sun. 8/16:

Dose of reality here.

Four horses qualified and all failed to win. They were: MON R2 #6 Charlie's Diva; FL R2 #7 Bruce Tickets; PID R4 #3 Wonderful Me; GG R8 #9 You're My Boy Blue.

Running total now 33 plays, Return $115

Note: Still haven't changed my rough guess that the win rate will settle ballpark 30% and that the average odds will be ballpark 3-1, But we'll see.

Will post today's when finished.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Monday 8/17

PRM R2 #2 Live Prospect ML 5/2 (2nd choice on ML)
TDN R8 #9 Rollinretiredtires ML 9/2
MNR R9 #6 Spicey Dish ML 6/1

That's it unfortunately. Once again, there were plays that I am not listing because they are virtually certain not to make the odds' barrier. The PM selection may have a chance because the horse is the second choice on the ML.

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Results for Monday 8/17:

Two out of the three selections were actually plays! Hard to believe. Anyway, they were TDN R8 #9 Rollinretiredtires who failed to win (although he ran a respectable second) and MNR R9 #6 Spicey Dish who won and paid $10.20.

That makes running total: 35 plays return $125.20 ROI +78.8%

Note: At least the system broke it's little mini-slump.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Tuesday 8/18/09:

FL R2 #7 Regal Enchantment ML 3/1
OHIO R7 #5 Rev Cayce ML 12/1
OHIO R10 #6 Dinkers Valentine ML 6/1
YAV R8 #1 Buck's Easy Goer ML 5/1
PEN R4 #4 Conga Gold ML 5/2
MNR R6 #7 Delaware Twitch ML 5/2 (2nd choice on ML)
MNR R10 #7 Mascaron ML 3/1

That's it. Note: Conga Gold PEN R4 is in a very large scheduled field which may allow odds minimum to be achieved. Delaware Twitch MNR R6 is the second choice on the ML so there's a chance for proper odds, but I kind of doubt it. Also, throwing in a Yavapai selection which I don't normally do, but we'll see how it goes.

GL Mark

[formula_2002]

OHIO R10 #6 Dinkers Valentine ML 6/1

you really have to love this game
I like the beast if it goes <2-1, you like it if it goes >=5/2 :)

[ryesteve]

you really have to love this game
I like the beast if it goes <2-1, you like it if it goes >=5/2 :)
... so I guess if she's 2/1, she has no shot :D

[formula_2002]

... so I guess if she's 2/1, she has no shot :D
that's even better!! :)

[markgoldie]

you really have to love this game
I like the beast if it goes <2-1, you like it if it goes >=5/2 :)
Actually, I just pulled the figure 5-2 out of the air, so to speak. I did that feeling that the system could possibly produce a 30% strike rate. And I knew that the average odds would be low so I wanted to keep the average above 3-1. Demanding a 5-2 minimum seemed a good way to do that. Now you might think that 5-2 is a little high when you're only looking to average 3-1. But my thinking process was that at a 2-1 cutoff, you might not get it. That's because a bunch of horses at or just above 2-1 coupled with the 5-2 shots and the 3-1's might drag you under a 3-1 minimum average.

But the key point here is that everything I'm doing revolves around the results we see because I am not doing any pre-data mining like you are. So while your 2-1 has a large data base behind it, my 5-2 is simply a guess. The problem is that I don't have the time to data-mine my own results, so I've been trying to coax someone out there to do it for me but so far no one has stepped up or if they have, they're keeping it to themselves.

Anyway, with these few plays that the system is generating, if I were playing it, I'd like to bet around $400 per selection to make it worthwhile. But I not sure that the $400 itself wouldn't affect the odds at some of these tracks. On the other hand, if you dropped the minimum odds to 2-1, you'd get more plays so you could reduce the bet size a bit. However, all this is a bit premature since the sample size doesn't mean a whole lot at the moment.

[markgoldie]

Results for Tues. 8/18:

Two horses qualified for play. They were:Rev Cayce OHIO R7 and Dinker's Valentine OHIO R10. Both lost.

That brings play total to 37 plays Return $125.20

Note: It was a good day for those that failed to qualify, however, 5 horses, 4 won with an aggregate payout of $23.90. 3 of the 4 winners were over 2-1 in odds.

Will post today's when done.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Wednesday 8/19/09:

PID R2 #6 Sparkling Lover ML 3/1
HOO R6 #7 Thought I Could ML 5/2
PEN R1 #7 Warren's Holiday ML 8/1
PID R5 #2 Lovely Senorita ML 4/1
HOO R7 #5 Solon Express ML 7/2
EVD R7 #8 Danger Present ML 4/1
EVD R9 #2 Shanghai Girl ML 6/1

That's it.

[formula_2002]

we both have;
HOO R6 #7 Thought I Could ML 5/2

now that I've removed my odds restrictions he can win at any price :)

[markgoldie]

we both have;
HOO R6 #7 Thought I Could ML 5/2

now that I've removed my odds restrictions he can win at any price :)
Just looked at him again since you're on him as well. He should win if he runs his race (and, of course, if nothing jumps out of the woodworks).

[formula_2002]

Just looked at him again since you're on him as well. He should win if he runs his race (and, of course, if nothing jumps out of the woodworks).

he did!! :)
Hoosier Park - Race 6 Chart
# Win Place Show
7 $5.20 $3.60 $3.20

[markgoldie]

Results for Wed. 8/19:

Only one horse out of that total group qualified for play at odds of 5/2 or better which was EVD R7 #8 Danger Present who lost.

Running total now is 38 plays win return $125.80

[markgoldie]

Selections for Thursday 8/20/09:

OHIO R10 #3 Midnight Spiece ML 9/2
HOO R6 #1 Sir Dakota ML 7/2
PID R7 #2 Wise Answer ML 8/1
PID R8 #8 Gully Hill Road ML 3/1
PEN R6 #4 Lucky Citizen ML 3/1
CBY R6 #2 Voracious ML 7/2

That's it unfortunately.

Note: Will try a new feature here (if I remember to do it in the future). I will give best bet of the group with analysis. Today's best bet of the group is Gully Hill Road PID R8 #8. He returns in 20 days after a top-flight performance for these with slightly better. He has great stalking speed in a field which does not offer a whole lot of pace. He should take the lead somewhere on the last turn and should be very difficult to run down.

GL Mark

[CBedo]

Selections for Thursday 8/20/09:

OHIO R10 #3 Midnight Spiece ML 9/2
HOO R6 #1 Sir Dakota ML 7/2
PID R7 #2 Wise Answer ML 8/1
PID R8 #8 Gully Hill Road ML 3/1
PEN R6 #4 Lucky Citizen ML 3/1
CBY R6 #2 Voracious ML 7/2
Interestingly, this is the first day that I've seen any intersection between your choices and one of the models I'm running, and there are actually two today. I also have Sir Dakota at Hoosier & Lucky Citizen at Penn. My guess is that if they are showing up on both our lists, we're not going to get the price either of us would like.

Good luck today.

P.S. Just to be complete, our models have different picks in one race, a beautiful (lol) maiden claimer in Ohio. While you land on some potential value, my model lands on the chalk, the 5, Holding Hands, who is 5/2 on the morning line.

[markgoldie]

Results for Thurs. 8/20

Two qualifiers both lost. They were: OHIO R10 Midnight Spice and PEN R6 Lucky Citizen. Presque Isle was cancelled after 6th so the two selections there did not run.

Running total: 40 plays $2 win return $125.80.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Fri. 8/21/09:

FL R5 #7 David's Lab ML 5/1
OHIO R14 #2 Khrisgo ML 5/2
PID R4 #2 Chimchar ML 4/1
EVD R1 #12 Mymamastillstandin ML 9/2
MNR R2 #6 Moonshine Talk ML 5/2
PID R6 #4 Bk's Clearanceisle ML 8/1
PID R8 #3 Hamilton Hall ML 5/1
EVD R10 #2 Independent Miss ML 4/1
CBY R8 #1 Email Alert ML 9/2
EMD R5 #7 Swiss S S T ML 5/2

That's it.

Notes: Best bet of day is PID R4 #2 Chimchar. This horse is an E type with a remarkable flexibility to run with the pace at longer and to close at this 6f distance. Should lay off the pace here and overwhelm these with much superior ability. (Yesterday's BB did not run due to cancellation of late PID card).

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Results for Friday 8/21:

Only two horses qualified by price (one was scratched). They were: FL R5 #7 David's Lab and PID R8 #3 Hamilton Hall. The Finger Lakes horse ran second at $13.30 - 1 and the Presque Isle horse won and paid $9.40 to win.

Running total now is: 42 plays, win return $135.20 ROI +60.9%

THe best bet was pounded to $.80 and ran 3rd. (Poor ride IMO as the horse was forced to run in a duel for the lead, which is not his best game at the 6f distance.)

Will post today's when done.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Saturday 8/22/09:

HOO R3 #8 Sultry Pleasure ML 7/2
OHIO R3 #3 Crackerbox Palace ML 7/2
HOO R4 #2 Crown's Big Day ML 5/2
FL R7 #1 Silver Heels ML 5/2
MON R10 #7 Sleek John ML 7/2
LRL R10 #3 Perfect Pet ML 3/1
PID R8 #7 Miss May ML 4/1
EVD R6 #7 Tom Dick Or Harry ML 6/1

Unfortunately that's it, after looking at almost 100 races which made it through the initial filter.

Note: Discontinuing best bet selection. This was a hairbrained idea that was the result of some sort of mental cramp. We all know that there is no such thing as a best bet in this game, fraught with randomness as it is, when you have no idea of closing odds. It's a numbers and percentages game and let's stick to that. Also, this "system" has another big problem which is obvious but I haven't mentioned before (although it was briefly touched on by an earlier poster). That is, with the last second odds' movement at some of these tracks, you would have bet thinking that you had the proper odds only to find out that they had plummeted after the bell. I would imagine that this would "come out in the wash" over the long run, but still it violates the premise of an odds' minimum. There doesn't seeem to be a good way to avoid this dilemma.
Still very much unsure if this is worth the effort with so few plays but I guess I'm learning something through the process.

GL Mark

PS. Anybody doing anything with these plays? If you are, don't be afraid to say so because it doesn't bother me at all.

[GameTheory]

Selections for Saturday 8/22/09:

HOO R3 #8 Sultry Pleasure ML 7/2
OHIO R3 #3 Crackerbox Palace ML 7/2
HOO R4 #2 Crown's Big Day ML 5/2
FL R7 #1 Silver Heels ML 5/2
MON R10 #7 Sleek John ML 7/2
LRL R10 #3 Perfect Pet ML 3/1
PID R8 #7 Miss May ML 4/1
EVD R6 #7 Tom Dick Or Harry ML 6/1

Unfortunately that's it, after looking at almost 100 races which made it through the initial filter.

Note: Discontinuing best bet selection. This was a hairbrained idea that was the result of some sort of mental cramp. We all know that there is no such thing as a best bet in this game, fraught with randomness as it is, when you have no idea of closing odds. It's a numbers and percentages game and let's stick to that. Also, this "system" has another big problem which is obvious but I haven't mentioned before (although it was briefly touched on by an earlier poster). That is, with the last second odds' movement at some of these tracks, you would have bet thinking that you had the proper odds only to find out that they had plummeted after the bell. I would imagine that this would "come out in the wash" over the long run, but still it violates the premise of an odds' minimum. There doesn't seeem to be a good way to avoid this dilemma.
Still very much unsure if this is worth the effort with so few plays but I guess I'm learning something through the process.

GL Mark

PS. Anybody doing anything with these plays? If you are, don't be afraid to say so because it doesn't bother me at all.Re: last minute odds movement -- not necessarily a problem, but that is why you do a test with real money to see if the picks you actually end up betting on make money, not just the "research" sample. Of course, this IS the research sample...

[formula_2002]

Still very much unsure if this is worth the effort with so few plays but I guess I'm learning something through the process.
at a 1.60+ roi..I would hang in there!!! :rolleyes:

I posted 35 picks today after "looking" at 3500 horses and I get JOLLY when I can get to a .97 roi..

[Robert Goren]

If you decide to give up this, please post your method. I might figure out way to take some of work out of it.

[Bennie]

Mark,
Please don't give up. I have been following and using your selections with much success. Having limited races is a good thing. It let's you focus on those races and if you use those as your "key" horses in exotic wagers you can turn 3-1 and 4-1 horses into 20-1 to 40-1 payouts. I am only a weekend player and usually leave for the track before you post but as soon as I get home, I check to see if there are still playable races. Tonight, for instance, there were the 8th at Presque and the 6th at Evangeline still not run. You know the results. Two plays, two winners and based on a $2 wager, $4 out and $16+ back. That my friend is an excellent roi. It's not the quantity of plays, it's the quality.
I also try to play during the week after I get home from work and to give you another example, about a week or so ago there was a horse at Mountaineer you listed. I made a flat bet to win and then keyed that horse on top of D. Parker and Feliciano, the 2 best jocks running in that race, and hit an $88 exacta.
:ThmbUp:
I for one, look forward to your picks. They keep me on my budget and make money. Can't ask for more than that.:ThmbUp:

[TexasDolly]

Good job Mark. Keep'em coming.
TD

[markgoldie]

Thanks to Bennie and Texas Dolly for the encouraging words.

Results for Sat. 8/22:

There were 5 qualifying horses and 3 won: HOO R3 #8 Sultry Pleasure was out. FL R7 #1 Silver Heels won and paid $9.50. LRL R10 # 3 Perfect Pet lost (but ran 2nd by a nose at over 10-1 and for the back and forth exacta wheelers, the exacta paid over $1700). PID R8 #7 Miss May won and paid $7.40. And finally, EVD R6 #7 Tom Dick Or Harry won and paid $9.00.

That made results for the day: 5 plays, Investment $10 Return $25.90

Running Total now is: 47 plays; Investment based on $2 bet $94; Return $161.10; ROI +71.4% or as Formula 2002 expresses it, 1.714.

Will post today's when done.

[formula_2002]

Running Total now is: 47 plays; Investment based on $2 bet $94; Return $161.10; ROI +71.4% or as Formula 2002 expresses it, 1.714.

another way I look at it is, you are beating a 17% track takout by 210%..stunning :faint:
(1.714/.83)=2.10

[Canarsie]

I appreciate these plays also and what really impresses me is that most of the selections whether win or lose give a great accounting of themselves.

The ROI is off the charts it's become a large enough sample to think it will stay positive over the long haul.

Keep up the good work. :ThmbUp:

[markgoldie]

Thanks to Formula 2002 and Canarsie for the nice words. And now that the selections have been formally jinxed, here's todays plays:

Selections for Sunday 8/23/09:

LRL R1 #4 Callmemisterlouis ML 5/1
FL R1 #4 Face In The Mirror ML 7/2
HOO R4 #3 Uno Ducksy ML 5/2
FL R4 #7 Sarasthejudge ML 3/1
LAD R2 #4 Ladygoeseasy ML 5/1
REM R4 #5 Hoya ML 7/2
RD R8 #10 Preachinupastorm ML 7/2
Yav R5 #5 Slew Stuff ML 4/1

That's it.

GL Mark

[formula_2002]

RD R8 #10 Preachinupastorm ML 7/2

we are both on this beast

[markgoldie]

Let me take another look at him since we're both on him, although my selections don't seem to be running today.

The risk here is that he's not an E or E/P type which win the majority of races at this speed-favoring oval. Mitigating against that, however, is his good early speed despite the stalking tendencies. A proper ride would find him restrained just off the all-out speed runners and launching a bid nearing the head of the stretch.

I also think the ML of 7/2, which makes him the second choice by price, is incorrect. I predict he'll probably be slammed with late money and a final win odds of 4-5 is not out of the question. I filter out a bunch of plays every day in which I'm certain the final odds won't approach 5/2 and I might have filtered out this one as well if he were not the ML oddsmaker's second pick. This gives me hope for a slightly better price but I seriously doubt it here.

Other than that, if he repeats either of his last two races, he should win unless another of these slugs goes way out of parameter on the upside.

[markgoldie]

Results for Sunday 8/23:

Three horses qualified and none won. They were: LRL R1 #4 Callmemisterlouis; FL R4 #7 Sarahsthejudge; and YAV R5 #5 Slew Stuff.

Running total is now 50 plays; return $161.10 which drops ROI to +61.1%.

Will post today's when done.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Monday 8/24/09

Limited plays today because of the tracks that I consider, only 31 races passed the initial filter for deeper consideration. Also, some imbalanced fields made several races virtually certain not to provide the needed odds on the selected horse. I have omitted these (no use wasting time with horses that have 4/5 to 7/5 morning lines. I even omit 2-1 morning lines unless for some reason I think the line may be far off. So far to my knowledge I have not omitted a play that has eventually made the 5/2 stipulation).

SUF R6 #10 J P's Hannah ML 4/1
FL R8 #1 Pinky Freud ML 3/1 (part of entry; make sure proper one starts)
MNR R9 #8 Commit Me ML 8/1

That's it. Notes: The line on the MNR horse is WAY off. Horse will be much lower.

Also, since this is such a slow day, I'll include a different kind of play just for fun. This is what I normally do- play superfectas in two types of events: (1) So-called chaos races and (2) Races in which there is a weak favorite. R8 at TDN is a chaos race in which IMO there is no possible way to separate out a large group of possible winners. It's listed as a 12-horse field and I hope that all of them run.
I would attack this event in the following way, as a part-wheel.
:3: :4: :6: :8: :9: :11:
:1: :3: :4: :6: :8: :9: :11:
:1: :3: :4: :6: :8: :9: :11: :12:
:1: :2: :3: :4: :6: :8: :9: :11: :12:

This is a 6 x 6 x 6 x 6 punch for 1296 combinations. This is playable for a 10-cent bet costing $129.60. The three eliminated horses seem to be solid throw-outs, although one of them carries a 6/1 ML. The trick here is to let the chaos work for you, going for a 50%+ cash rate, a very small chance that the winning ticket will produce a loss, and a potential for a very large payout (situations like this will sometimes produce a $600+ payout for the dime-based wager. At Churchill Downs this year, a similar set up paid over $4000 for the dime, although that won't happen at TDN with much smaller pools). One caution is that scratches can disrupt the desirability of the play.

GL Mark

[CBedo]

Just for fun, I'll take a shot at the super too (and noone should take this seriously, since I know zilch about supers. Also, this was pretty mechanical--so definitely not comprehensive handicapping.

My quick look comes up with quick eliminations of 5 & 7 (just as Mark did), and a top six of 1 3 4 6 9 11. The 12 looks to be just below those with the 2 8 & 10 below that. Since I can't really separate those 3, I'll structure my ticket slightly differently to keep the cost down.

:1::3::4::6::9::11:
:1::3::4::6::9::11::12:
:1::3::4::6::9::11::12:
:1::3::4::6::9::11::12::2::8::10:

total cost is about the same as Mark's, $126. Good luck!

[markgoldie]

Note on fun bet: The number :2: has been scratched, so I will substitute number :10: in his place (fourth position only) and the cost will remain the same.

[CBedo]

Wow, I didn't look at the odds board at all before I posted. Watching the :8: get pounded on the board didn't make me feel very good about only having him in the last spot. Nice job Mark of having it cold in your top six horses.

Good fun! (and a $1185 super!)

[formula_2002]

good luck to both of you.

[formula_2002]

Wow, I didn't look at the odds board at all before I posted. Watching the :8: get pounded on the board didn't make me feel very good about only having him in the last spot. Nice job Mark of having it cold in your top six horses.

Good fun! (and a $1185 super!)
$0.10 Superfecta 11-6-9-10 $86.59

how come?

[markgoldie]

Chris:

That trip to CA must have been fun and you're still on the hangover. The :8: was 32-1 and I only caught the :10: after the scratch of the :2: .
Anyway, we lost a little as the dime paid $86.59, but take my word for it as a man who has done hundreds if not thousands of these type races, anything could have happened in there. In the previous race (7th) saw a dime super pay $1185.

PS to Joe: he was looking at the $2 super payout.

[markgoldie]

$0.10 Superfecta 11-6-9-10 $86.59

how come?
Correction. He must have been looking at the 7th race payout.

[formula_2002]

Correction. He must have been looking at the 7th race payout.
thanks...

[CBedo]

thanks...oops, lol. Well, we would have hit the 7th too! haha

[markgoldie]

Results for Monday 8/24

Only one horse qualified for play and did not win. She was J P's Hannah in SUF R6.

Running total now is: 51 plays; $2 bet return $161.10.

Note: As predicted the ML odds of 8/1 on Commit Me (MNR R9) were far off as he closed at 2/1. The fun bet cashed but we lost 50% or so of the wager. The chances were there, though, as in true chaos-race fashion, 4 horses were across the track for the show placing. Price was depressed by three 4/1 co-choices running 1-2-3.

Will post today's when they are finished.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Tuesday 8/25/09:

OHIO R6 #2 Hardcount ML 8/1
FL R7 #5 System Restore ML 3/1
OHIO R14 #3 Install ML 7/2
PEN R6 #5 Chief Speed ML 4/1
MNR R7 #1 Majestic Karakorum ML 5/2

That's it.

Notes: After a review, I am tweaking the system to be a bit more selective in one area and a bit less so in another. Hopefully, this will work out in our favor. The ML odds on Hardcount (OHIO R6) seem far out of whack to me. Would like to take half of that. I doubt we'll see it, but who knows?

GL Mark

[CBedo]

Ohio Race 6 was one of those races that confuses a model from time to time. The 7, True Genius was a horse that had an interesting projection pattern for me a couple races ago, and then in his next race, ran well early but needed a race, and I was looking forward to him coming back. Unfortunately, when he did come back, he came back in a turf race where he ran credibly, but nothing special. He then comes back today back on the dirt. So the question becomes can a model play from multiple races ago still apply today. It was a judgement call, but at 7/1 I thought it was worth a shot. Hopefully, the turf race just hides the dirt form cycle. Human judgement is still better than my computer models--sometimes, lol.

He ran a great race, dueling for the lead all the way, and hanging on for a nice 16.60 payoff.

[CBedo]

It looks like a model I'm using also has horses in Mnr 7 and Pen 6, and neither are the same as Mark's so i thought I'd take a quick look at both races.

Mnr 7 looks like a race between the three favorites to me. Mark's pick is the 1, Majestic Karakorum (5/2 ml). My model has the 3, Mr. Regent (2/1 ml). The other horse that might be in the mix is the 2, Secret Fever (3/1 ml).

Pen 6 is interesting in that from my model's view, Mark's horse the 5, Chief Speed (4/1 ml) and my model's pick the 10, Coastal Drive (4/1 ml) look extremely similar. Both haven't been the most consistent lately, and both ran numbers big enough to win this race in their last if they don't regress. The model gives its pick a slight (very slight) edge early, and Mark's horse a slight edge late. Since my model isn't taking into account post position, I'd guess that Mark's horse should get the shorter path probably. One horse that model does not like is the favorite, the 1A Ahead of Time, who is a closer who just doesn't appear fast enough unless both of the other two run clunkers. From a personal standpoint with only a quick look handicapping it, I'd probably watch the odds board and if the 5 & 10 are somewhat similar, I'd bet the higher odds of the two. If there is a very large divergence, I might bet the lower (Bayesian inference application maybe).

Good luck!

[GameTheory]

(Bayesian inference application maybe).Elaborate...

[CBedo]

Elaborate...I should have known you'd catch this, lol! I just know from my history that although my even money shots perform better than my 3/1s who perform better than my 5/1s, etc, that within each odds group there is still a positive correlation between performance and public odds. So a horse that I make 2/1 is more likely to win if he is actually even money than if he is 3/1.

Since I recognize this, I have in the past used a bastardized Bayes inference type of logic to use the public odds as new evidence to adjust a predicted win probability.

So in this case, if the odds are similar, I'd still assume roughly the same win percentage, and would get better value by choosing the higher odds of the two, but if there is a huge odds divergence, that means I more than likely missed something, and the lower odds of the two has a much better chance of winning. The roi portion of this discussion is long, less clear, and still ongoing, but the bottom line right now for me is that in similar situations to this, the lower odds horse has provided the better roi of the two (although not necessarily good enough to bet). Basically, I think in these divergent situations, the conclusion is that I probably don't have as good a handle on the race as I thought I did and more than likely should pass the race.

Does that make any sense at all?

[GameTheory]

I should have known you'd catch this, lol! I just know from my history that although my even money shots perform better than my 3/1s who perform better than my 5/1s, etc, that within each odds group there is still a positive correlation between performance and public odds. So a horse that I make 2/1 is more likely to win if he is actually even money than if he is 3/1.

Since I recognize this, I have in the past used a bastardized Bayes inference type of logic to use the public odds as new evidence to adjust a predicted win probability.

So in this case, if the odds are similar, I'd still assume roughly the same win percentage, and would get better value by choosing the higher odds of the two, but if there is a huge odds divergence, that means I more than likely missed something, and the lower odds of the two has a much better chance of winning. The roi portion of this discussion is long, less clear, and still ongoing, but the bottom line right now for me is that in similar situations to this, the lower odds horse has provided the better roi of the two (although not necessarily good enough to bet). Basically, I think in these divergent situations, the conclusion is that I probably don't have as good a handle on the race as I thought I did and more than likely should pass the race.

Does that make any sense at all?It makes 100% sense to me, but then I'm been posting similar thoughts for years in the face of the "all of your 3/1 horses should win at the same rate no matter what the public odds" crowd. I was just wondering why divergent odds brought up Bayesian inference...

[CBedo]

It makes 100% sense to me, but then I'm been posting similar thoughts for years in the face of the "all of your 3/1 horses should win at the same rate no matter what the public odds" crowd. I was just wondering why divergent odds brought up Bayesian inference...I just threw it in to try to sound smart, and you busted me.......:bang:

[GameTheory]

I just threw it in to try to sound smart, and you busted me.......:bang:I'm currently seeing 2-5 on the #5 and 12-1 on the #10. I'd say they are divergent. But then maybe that is just the early money from people following this thread...

[riskman]

PN Race 6-Won by # 5 Chief Speed -- Final Odds 1.90

Wire to Wire Win.

[Light]

CBedo

Roughly what percentage of your plays would you say are model plays?

[CBedo]

Light, I've hijacked Mark's thread enough already. Let's take this to the General Racing Forum. I'll post thoughts and see what everyone else has to add.

By the way, both my model picks lost, and both somewhat predictably (perverse way to describe). The Pen race, my horse was not able to secure a good tracking position from his outside post and Mark's horse just crushed him (at low odds unfortunately). In the Mnr race, the model horse ran a pretty good race, but gunning early cost him some energy late, and he got passed by what I thought was the other logical (and best closer) horse, the 2. It made for a pretty nice $35 exacta with a below even money favorite.

[markgoldie]

Okay. Quickly about the discussions of the PEN and MNR race. In the PEN race, Chris is correct. The outside horse couldn't get the right position to threaten. In the MNR race, my horse was way, way below par due to what just looked to me me to be lameness (although that's just a guess). He did very little running but just enough to soften Chris' horse for the late kill and Chris correctly identified that horse as a potential contender based on his erractic closing ability. But neither of us did too much more than the track handicapper who had them at 2/1, 5/2, and 3/1 and far below his next pick which was 8/1.

Results for Tues. 8/25:

No horses qualified for play at 5/2 or better. this makes the running total unchanged.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Wed 8/26:

Posting this one now because it's coming right up.

SUF R1 #2 Big Cash ML 4/1

Will post other soon.

Mark

[CBedo]

But neither of us did too much more than the track handicapper who had them at 2/1, 5/2, and 3/1 and far below his next pick which was 8/1.I agree with that, but as seems to be often the case at Mountaineer, the public latches onto one or two horses and pounds them into submission, leaving other logical contenders overlaid (I love Mnr by the way). I have nothing concrete to support this, but it just seems that the favorites that should be 2/1 go off at 1/1 more often than not. The morning line maker had it right, but the public pounded my horse down below even money and let the 2 go off at around 5/1 if I remember right. The $35 dollar exacta was more than fair.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Wed. 8/26/09:

SUF R1 #2 Big Cash ML 4/1 (as noted in previous post)
PID R4 #3 Yvett's Pride ML 5/1
PID R5 Sneaking Upon You ML 7/2
HOO R8 Arabian Cheetah ML 4/1
PID R7 #6 Wise Answer ML 8/1
EVD R7 #9 Betterthanfiction ML 3/1
PEN R9 #3 Five Demon Bag ML 3/1

That's it.

Notes: As of this writing, the R1 SUF horse has already raced (that's why I put it in an earlier post). The horse qualified for play and ran third, but racing luck killed him. He was seemingly making the winning move up the rail when he ws shut off, had to be taken up and pulled to the outside. He then gained strongly late, losing by what looked like a length or so but his loss of momentum and ground cost him much more than that. But that's racing for you!

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Results for Wed 8/26:

A frustrating day in which all the horses that qualified for play failed to win and all of those who were under the 5/2 barrier won. There were 3 horses that qualified and lost. They were Big Cash SUF R1; Wise Answer PID R7; and Five Demon Bag PEN R9.

Running total now is: 54 plays $2 win return $161.10.

[CBedo]

Results for Wed 8/26:

A frustrating day in which all the horses that qualified for play failed to win and all of those who were under the 5/2 barrier won. There were 3 horses that qualified and lost. They were Big Cash SUF R1; Wise Answer PID R7; and Five Demon Bag PEN R9.

Running total now is: 54 plays $2 win return $161.10.If Big Cash doesn't get shut off on the rail turning for home, you probably would have had a profitable day. He's been added to my watch list for next time hopefully. Good luck today.

[markgoldie]

Selections For Thurs. 8/27/09:

PID R3 #6 Crimson Doon ML 7/2
EVD R1 #1 Straight Shooter ML 5/2
EVD R2 #9 I Forty Nine ML 7/2
PID R7 #2 Penn Star ML 4/1
PID R 8 #6 Gully Hill Road ML 5/2
EVD R7 #1 Island In The Sand ML 3/1

That's it.

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Results for Thurs. 8/27:

Only 1 horse qualified for play, PID R3 #6, and she did not win.

Running total now: 55 plays Return for $2 win bet $161.10.

[markgoldie]

Plays for Friday 8/28/09:

HOO R6 #8 Sea Of Enquiry ML 7/2
OHIO R6 #7 Fleet Rita ML 3/1
ELP R6 #6 Jolly Ol' Nick ML 4/1
PID R5 #5 Celtic Meal ML 5/2
PEN R5 #2 Long Lost Pal ML 7/2
PRM R3 #6 Lord Alexander ML 5/1
MNR R10 #10 Yankee Victress ML 8/1
EMD R8 #1 Wood Be Fabulous ML 3/1

That's it.

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Results for Fri. 8/28:

Qualifiers were: HOO R6, #8 Sea Of Enquiry; PID R5 #5 Celtic Meal; PEN #2 Long Lost Pal; PRM R3 #6 Lord Alexander. None won.

Runnig total 59 plays. Return $2 win $161.10.

[markgoldie]

Note: Going on vacation for a week. Will have my laptop so I can check in on you guys but I won't be downloading all the files necessary to make the picks. Sorry. Will most likely pick this up when I return.

Mark

[Canarsie]

Note: Going on vacation for a week. Will have my laptop so I can check in on you guys but I won't be downloading all the files necessary to make the picks. Sorry. Will most likely pick this up when I return.

Mark


Have a great trip and a fun time. :) I remember hooking up my cell phone to a dial up account on the road before every hotel had wireless. My have times changed.

[markgoldie]

Okay. Back from vacation. Was able to keep up with you guys from laptop.

Recap of this thread. All plays must have 5-2 minimum odds to be considered a play. I realize this is difficult sometimes due to late odds' changes. But something in the ballpark should be okay.

Results to date were: 59 plays with $2 win return of $161.10. ROI +26.75.

System was on something of a skid when last posted.

Plays for 9/7/09:

RD R2 #1A (POE) Wink At Richie ML 4/1
HOO R6 #10 Townie's Dream ML 5/2
ELP R5 #7 Smokin Silver ML 5/1
SUF R7 #5 Preacher Buck ML 3/1
ELP R8 #11 I'm Something ML 3/1
RD R8 #1 (POE) Vintage Dave ML 5/2
PRM R2 #8 Ainsley D. ML 3/1
PRM R5 #5 Brew Or Two ML 4/1
YAV R6 #10 Bereguedex ML 6/1
YAV R7 #6 Strum Bum ML 3/1
YAV R8 #11 Cause I'm A Blur ML 5/2
EVD R4 #5 Out Of Gwedda ML 7/2
EMD R9 #6 Oneknightledo ML 3/1

That's it.

Notes: As always, some plays were taken out because they obviously have no chance to make the required 5/2 odds. Even with those posted, as we know from past experience, more than a few will not. But let's hope we get some eligible plays anyway.

GL Mark

[formula_2002]

WE ARE BOTH ON THIS ONE
YAV R8 #11 Cause I'm A Blur ML 5/2

AT SUF R 7, WE COMBINE FOR A 5/7 EXACTA.

GL

[WinterTriangle]

HOO R6 #8 Sea Of Enquiry ML 7/2


This is interesting. WILD AND CRAZY!

I accidentally was looking at your picks from 8/28 not today!!!!!

for Hoosier 6, on 8/28, not today 9/7, you had
The #9 is Sea of Enquiry (7/2).

So I'm looking at it and saying, what is he talkig about? Sea of Inquiry is the #9, not the #8!!!

The #8 is Release Me Now at 15-1.

I thought what the heck--- mistakes are sometimes precognitive / prophetic. I didn't want to play Sea of Enquiry because a lot were touting it, I always get off horses like that.

So, I played Release Me Now, at 19-1.

AND WON :lol: $41.20

So, WRONG DAY, WRONG HORSE, and won a bundle. :lol:

And, just coincidentally, Sea of Inquiry must've scratched on 8/28 OR was running again today, so I didn't NOTICE I was on the WRONG DATE because the horse was running in Hoosier 6 today, 9/7, just as he was on 8/28 :lol:

[markgoldie]

Kudos to WinterTriangle. Probably the only way humanly possible to bet Release me Now in that race. Nothing in the form pointed him out.

Anyway, results for 9/7:

Only two horses qualified for play PRM R5 #5 Brew or Two, won and paid $7.80 and YAV R6 #10 Bereguedex who according to the chart, must have nearly died out on track.

Running total now: 61 plays, $2 win return $168.90 ROI +38.4%

[markgoldie]

Selections for Tuesday 9/8/09:

FL R4 #3 Thisguycanfly ML 4/1
TDN R4 #4 Carson Guy ML 9/2
TDN R5 #8 Country Connection ML 3/1
TDN R6 #7 Mr. Cash In ML 8/1
FL R8 #5 City In The Clouds ML 15/1
YAV R4 #5 Tahoe Legs ML 3/1
MNR R7 #4 Florida Jackpot ML 3/1

That's it.

Notes: Trying to eliminate more of the selections that will not make the odds' requirement of 5/2 so as not to waste time and effort. The FL R8 selection is interesting at a 15/1 ML odds. Bris Prime Power has the horse well down, which is a concern, but the horse has been improving, especially in final-speed numbers. Should have a live shot at whatever odds. I'm on the verge of eliminating Yavapai as a track that's playable due to very inconsistent performances of the horses (or is it goats they race?) there. One last shot with a horse that looks strong on paper, if that means anything.

GL Mark

[markgoldie]

Results for Tues. 9/8:

Two horses qualified for play and both lost (we had one scratch). Qualifiers were: TDN R4 #4 Carson Guy andFL R8 #5 City In The Clouds.

New totals: 63 plays $2 win return $168.90. ROI +34.04%

Note: The Yavapai goat referred to in yesterday's selections did win, although he paid something like $5.80 which did not qualify him as a play. On the other hand, it may mean that goat-capping is possible after all.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Wednesday 8/9/09:

TDN R3 #7 Jamacian Girl ML 6/1
SUF R7 #11 Bentbutnotbroken ML 5/2
PID R3 #4 Rollicking Vista ML 3/1
DMR R10 #2 Soverign Lord ML 9/2

That's it. Not much unfortunately.

Notes: The Del Mar race, due to its huge size and contentious numbers actually qualifies a what I call a "chaos" race. However, the system points to Soverign Lad, although in this particular instance, I might like to see something over 7-1 odds and I think it's likely we will see that.

GL Mark

[formula_2002]

Selections for Wednesday 8/9/09:

TDN R3 #7 Jamacian Girl ML 6/1
SUF R7 #11 Bentbutnotbroken ML 5/2
PID R3 #4 Rollicking Vista ML 3/1
DMR R10 #2 Soverign Lord ML 9/2

That's it. Not much unfortunately.

Notes: The Del Mar race, due to its huge size and contentious numbers actually qualifies a what I call a "chaos" race. However, the system points to Soverign Lad, although in this particular instance, I might like to see something over 7-1 odds and I think it's likely we will see that.

GL Mark

Mark, suf r7 could be interesting. if my 6 horse goes off as the fav or 2nd choice, i'll combine it with the 11 for a cold 6/11

[formula_2002]

Mark, suf r7 could be interesting. if my 6 horse goes off as the fav or 2nd choice, i'll combine it with the 11 for a cold 6/11
it appears the 6 went off as the third choice and won...so much for that

[markgoldie]

Results for 9/9:

Only one horse qualified for play and that was #2 Sovereign Lord in the contentious 10th at DMR yesterday. He finished third. As I had mentioned, the race was chaotic and it turned out that way. I should have posted the event as I sometimes do as a superfecta "fun" bet. The payoff was over $600 for the dime play and was hittable in a variety of ways, either with Sovereign Lord as a key horse, or for a slightly bigger investment, without him as a key.

At any rate, as far as the system is concerned, it was 0-1 yesterday.

Running totals: 64 plays. $2 win return $168.90 ROI +31.9%

[markgoldie]

Selections for Thursday, 9/10/09:

TDN R3 #2 One Oh Five ML 7/2
TDN R4 #6 Skim Scam ML 3/1
MTH R6 #3 Cotton King ML 7/2
LAD R 4 #7 Bandit's Booty ML 3/1
AP R6 #3 Spanish Ambassador ML 4/1
PID R5 #5 Headline ML 3/1
PEN R5 #3 Bright Gem ML 3/1
PEN R7 #3 Outrageous Sadie ML 7/2

That's it.

GL Mark

[bks]

Mark,

Has anyone begun to round up the results from the non-qualifiers? If not, I can begin the process this weekend and post the info.

Many thanks again for continuing this effort (though I haven't made a cent on it!)

[markgoldie]

I had a partial rundown going back about 4 or five cards and the ROI was much lower than the 5/2 or better picks. It was still plus, but only about 7%.

[markgoldie]

Results for 9/10: Three qualifiers, all failed to win. They were TDN R3 #2 One Oh Five; TDN R4 #6 Skim Scam; LAD R4 #7 Bandit's Booty.

Running totals: 67 plays $2 win return $168.90 ROI + 26.0%

[markgoldie]

Selections for Friday 9/11/09:

LAD R3 #10 Dream On Silky ML 3/1
TDN R5 #1 Ima Bender Boo ML 4/1
MON R8 #1 Subtitles ML 6/1
GG R5 #10 Campfire Wish ML 8/1
FPX R7 #8 Lil Legal Linda ML 5/1
PID R8 #4 Flying Incognito ML 4/1
EMD R6 #5 Rio Torre ML 7/2

That's it.

GL Mark

[CBedo]

Selections for Friday 9/11/09:

LAD R3 #10 Dream On Silky ML 3/1
TDN R5 #1 Ima Bender Boo ML 4/1
MON R8 #1 Subtitles ML 6/1
GG R5 #10 Campfire Wish ML 8/1
FPX R7 #8 Lil Legal Linda ML 5/1
PID R8 #4 Flying Incognito ML 4/1
EMD R6 #5 Rio Torre ML 7/2

I have about 25 possible bets lined up for today (before scratches), and we have two races in common. I am riding the same horse with you in TDN R5 (which probably means the 4/1 ml is off), and my model is going against you in EMD R6, where I have the #1, Schuster Way 3/1. So we have both the favorites covered, hehe.

Good luck today.

[markgoldie]

The 6th at Emerald was a bit of departure from my normal call. Prime Power has Schuster Way on top with 111.2 and Rio Torre second at 108 (not that I depend on PP, but it agrees with you here). Also, Schuster Way seems to have an early pace advantage. However, my call on Rio Torre is based on two things: (1) The hot pace scenario and (2) a greater consistency of figures. There are two E7's and an E5 in the race beside Schuster Way (E5) and even though SW is probably quicker, I wouldn't be surprised if the pace was hot. If it is, RT's normal stalk-close number could be enough to win.

I'm not playing the event, so if you are, GL. Hope you win.

[CBedo]

The 6th at Emerald was a bit of departure from my normal call. Prime Power has Schuster Way on top with 111.2 and Rio Torre second at 108 (not that I depend on PP, but it agrees with you here). Also, Schuster Way seems to have an early pace advantage. However, my call on Rio Torre is based on two things: (1) The hot pace scenario and (2) a greater consistency of figures. There are two E7's and an E5 in the race beside Schuster Way (E5) and even though SW is probably quicker, I wouldn't be surprised if the pace was hot. If it is, RT's normal stalk-close number could be enough to win.

I'm not playing the event, so if you are, GL. Hope you win.I think your analysis seems spot on to me. My model tries to pick horses with pace advantages that do not absolutely need the lead, but I have noticed a good number of them getting caught up in these heated up front pace battles, especially at the smaller tracks, where apparently, jockeys are not allowed to read the racing form (or can't read). It's definitely an adjustment I need to look further into.

[CBedo]

The Emerald race didn't play out like I thought, but still got the same result with your horse just being much the best. I guess everyone else saw the same thing with your horse being the favorite.

In the Thistle race, the second was disappointing, but because of an embarassing use of the ALL button, I did have the trifecta for 380ish so at least that eased the pain a bit, haha.

[markgoldie]

Results for 9/11/09:

Three horses qualified for play and none won. They were: TDN R5 Ima Bender Boo; GG R10 Campfire Wish; and PID R8 Flying Incognito.

Running totals now: 70 plays, $2 win return $168.90 ROI +20.6%

Note: As I predicted much earlier, the chickens are coming home to roost.

[rokitman]

Results for 9/11/09:

Three horses qualified for play and none won. They were: TDN R5 Ima Bender Boo; GG R10 Campfire Wish; and PID R8 Flying Incognito.

Running totals now: 70 plays, $2 win return $168.90 ROI +20.6%

Note: As I predicted much earlier, the chickens are coming home to roost.
Pluck 'em.

[bks]

Among the non-qualifiers, winners included Lil Legal Linda ($6.40) and Rio Torre ($6.20) as mentioned above.

Dream on Silky ran second, and Subtitles scratched.

[markgoldie]

Selections for Saturday 9/12/09:

TP R2 #1 Running Eagle ML 4/1
TP R3 #9 Gatorlicious ML 8/1
CRC R6 #10 Varitek ML 5/1
Hoo R6 #9 She's Due For One ML 5/2
PID R4 #6 Koda ML 6/1
PID R8 #1 Furka Pass ML 3/1
PEN R9 #9 Pick Magnet ML 4/1

That's it.

Notes: Varitek (CRC R6) is a rare sighting of a strange bird...the S8 bird. This is a horse that by definition likes to have the top in his races but continues on with sustained speed. Sort of like Secretariat's Belmont.. only this one is a NW 3L $10,000 claimer with 2 wins in 33 lifetime starts. (Horse should actually be designated as an S3 or S4 at best). However, he could take advantage of an extra 2F here.

GL Mark

[speculus]

Results for 9/11/09:

Running totals now: 70 plays, $2 win return $168.90 ROI +20.6%

Note: As I predicted much earlier, the chickens are coming home to roost.

Don't lose heart markgoldie.

Just keep on doing what you HAVE BEEN DOING.

I took a public trial like this recently, and my performance turned from gold to copper between bet#52 & bet#80, and there was severe negative criticism, but I KEPT ON DOING WHAT I WAS DOING FROM BET#1, and finally acquitted myself fairly well in the proposed 100-bet trial. You can check the results here (http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tehnXqImC-08t1dpHaOdCGw&single=true&gid=2&output=html) .

All the best to you markg.

[markgoldie]

Speculus: Brilliant performance to say the least! :ThmbUp: :)

[markgoldie]

The Emerald race didn't play out like I thought, but still got the same result with your horse just being much the best. I guess everyone else saw the same thing with your horse being the favorite.

In the Thistle race, the second was disappointing, but because of an embarassing use of the ALL button, I did have the trifecta for 380ish so at least that eased the pain a bit, haha.
Chris:

You're right. The Emerald race didn't play out like either of us would have predicted. Schuster Way apparently did not fire at all and therefore was no a part of the pace. But this is what happens all the time and it's one of the problems I have with over-use of pace profiling. If one or two horses miss their break or don't fire for some reason, the pace profile can go out the window in a heartbeat.

[CBedo]

Chris:

You're right. The Emerald race didn't play out like either of us would have predicted. Schuster Way apparently did not fire at all and therefore was no a part of the pace. But this is what happens all the time and it's one of the problems I have with over-use of pace profiling. If one or two horses miss their break or don't fire for some reason, the pace profile can go out the window in a heartbeat.You are correct. That is why in my automated model, I am trying to have it stay away from horses that will be affected detrimentally by a bad pace (either too fast or too slow). Unfortunately, at some of the smaller tracks especiallly, the jockeys sometimes don't seem to share my opinions of what should happen, lol.

[formula_2002]

Don't lose heart markgoldie.

Just keep on doing what you HAVE BEEN DOING.

I took a public trial like this recently, and my performance turned from gold to copper between bet#52 & bet#80, and there was severe negative criticism, but I KEPT ON DOING WHAT I WAS DOING FROM BET#1, and finally acquitted myself fairly well in the proposed 100-bet trial. You can check the results here (http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=tehnXqImC-08t1dpHaOdCGw&single=true&gid=2&output=html) .

All the best to you markg.
CHECKED MUM RACE TRACK. LOOKS LIKE A 10% TAKE OUT . COOL

http://www.indiarace.com/aspdata/results/R-results.asp

[speculus]

Speculus: Brilliant performance to say the least! :ThmbUp: :)

Thanks Markg. Hope your profits too go up substantially by the 100th bet. Good luck.

[speculus]

CHECKED MUM RACE TRACK. LOOKS LIKE A 10% TAKE OUT . COOL

Mumbai (formerly Bombay) racetrack take is 16% on WIN bets. But BTC (Bangalore Turf Club) Tote where I bet charges 14% on WIN bets.

[formula_2002]

Mumbai (formerly Bombay) racetrack take is 16% on WIN bets. But BTC (Bangalore Turf Club) Tote where I bet charges 14% on WIN bets.
then obviously the odds posted in the result charts are not accurate.
the book % summed to bit more than 1.10

[markgoldie]

Results for Sat. 9/12:

There were 6 qualifying horses and all of them failed to win.

Running total 76 plays Win return $168.90 ROI +11.1%

Note: I am shutting this down now. When I started, I had no idea what we would find. I could have researched it for past results, but I don't have the time for stuff like that, so I decided to post it so we all could see what it would do. The problem is that it ususally does little more than predict favorites and we all know where that leads. Even when the ROI was very high, I predicted that it would collapse because the lower-priced selections had a much lower (negative) ROI and even a lower percentage strike-rate than the qulaifying selections of 5/2 or over. This never boded well since as Dave Schwartz in particular has pointed out many times, tote action is actually a very good predictor of strike-rate success. Another running example is Formula 2002's project which works best (as he says) when the system-selected horse is either the favorite or the co-favorite.

Even if the system were to go back on a better streak, I don't believe that it would be useful, again, because I think it predicts favorites too much and that is no way to show reasonable profits. As we went along, I began to eliminate more and more horses that were "called" by the system but which I knew would not make the odds' cut. In fact, by the end I was eliminating more calls than I was posting. This alone should have been an indication that we were bucking a strong negative tide.

Hopefully, we all have better angles than this one for uncovering value. In fact, I am noticing something new recently, which predicts long-shot winners. To make up for shutting this down, I will open a new thread where we may research this new angle together.

Thanks to those who offered encouragement over the course of this. I am now convinced that there are better ways for us to make money.

Sincerely,

Mark

[formula_2002]

Mark, in dark times, it's good to seek out Churchill..he had so many of them and yet lived long with great accomplishments.

Success is the ability to go from one failure to another with no loss of enthusiasm.
Sir Winston Churchill
British politician (1874 - 1965)

[speculus]

then obviously the odds posted in the result charts are not accurate.
the book % summed to bit more than 1.10

Formula,

The odds posted in the result charts you are talking about are BOOKMAKERS' ODDS (we have a dual system--Tote as well as bookies).

Bookmakers' odds on all horses are generally, on the average, 20% better than the Tote odds on the same horse. My profits of the said public trial would have been extra-ordinary if I had logged in records for those odds. But there would never be agreement on the bookies' odds at any given time, as there are about 50 bookmakers operating in an enclosure (we call it the "bookies' ring), and in their frenzied efforts to collect maximum business, they constantly keep on changing odds to outbid one another. So generally, there is no consensus figure for those odds, only approximate.

Although more profitable, the bookmakers' odds therefore serve no purpose as benchmark.

By contrast the Tote collections and dividends are absolutely transparent, though not as lucrative for profit. But since transparency is soul of a public trial, I kept track of only the Tote odds although that meant my profit figures would be way less than they would have been if someone followed those choices by backing with the bookies.

Hope this clears the issue for you,

[speculus]

Even if the system were to go back on a better streak, I don't believe that it would be useful, again, because I think it predicts favorites too much and that is no way to show reasonable profits.
Mark

I have nothing to say about your desire to stop here, because you know what you are doing and must be justified in taking this step. However, one thing I can personally vouch for is that if you predict 40+% winners, even if most of them are favorites, you will normally be able to still beat this game over both short term and long term. The trick could be to invent some sensible qualifier rules (like I did with my choices in the public trial) which would automatically eliminate many more losers than winners, helping your strike rate to go over the desired 40+%. or better still, close to 50%.

Think about it before you summarily scrap your present system, because I think it surely must have some merit. Of course, I understand you are not really too enthused about it.

[formula_2002]

Formula,

The odds posted in the result charts you are talking about are BOOKMAKERS' ODDS (we have a dual system--Tote as well as bookies).

Bookmakers' odds on all horses are generally, on the average, 20% better than the Tote odds on the same horse. My profits of the said public trial would have been extra-ordinary if I had logged in records for those odds. But there would never be agreement on the bookies' odds at any given time, as there are about 50 bookmakers operating in an enclosure (we call it the "bookies' ring), and in their frenzied efforts to collect maximum business, they constantly keep on changing odds to outbid one another. So generally, there is no consensus figure for those odds, only approximate.

Although more profitable, the bookmakers' odds therefore serve no purpose as benchmark.

By contrast the Tote collections and dividends are absolutely transparent, though not as lucrative for profit. But since transparency is soul of a public trial, I kept track of only the Tote odds although that meant my profit figures would be way less than they would have been if someone followed those choices by backing with the bookies.

Hope this clears the issue for you,


thank you...i wish we fix odds betting here !!!