Paulick asks, "acting like a spoiled kid?"

[Grits]

At the Paulick Report:

http://www.paulickreport.com/blog/jackson-acting-like-a-spoiled-kid/

[cj]

I think it is more a case of a guy sticking to what he believes in. The BC screwed up big time giving the races to SA two years in a row, why should he reward them?

[DJofSD]

He's entitled to his opinion and Jackson is entitled to do what he wants with RA.

I have not followed the RA/Jackson controversy closely. Perhaps Jackson's concern about BC 2009 is not so much the plastic dirt as it is Santa Anita.

[cj]

I agree. If the BC was being held at Delmar, nobody would be blaming Jackson with all the recent breakdowns.

[Grits]

Unless it DOES have to do with promoting poly and the Europeans, I'll never understand, for the life of me, why the Breeders' Cup decided to place this event at this venue, two years running. I'll never get it. And at this point, nor do I believe will many others.

Again, its Mr.Jackson's horse. Like all owners, he's picking up the tab.

[fmolf]

I agree. If the BC was being held at Delmar, nobody would be blaming Jackson with all the recent breakdowns.
excellent point about Jackson not rewarding the bc people.Not his responsibility or his concern.Horse of the year should be already wrapped up.Who else has or could do what she has already done this year?

[sandpit]

It's his call to run wherever he wants, and that's the way it's always been. Man o' War's owner skipped the Derby I believe because of the lack of perceived prestige at the time.

However, he may be depriving the BC folks for running the race over the synthetics, but he's also depriving the fans of one of the few chances of seeing her on network television. And I'd venture to guess if you took a poll, the majority of racing fans would want to see her run in the BC.

[Imriledup]

Why should Jackson run on that stuff? I mean, if you asked him to run on broken glass and rocks and he said no, would you hold it against him?


I'm 100 pct behind Jess here, in fact, there's really no debate.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

When Keeneland first shoved polycrap and all the good things about it down the industry's throat which made it go crazy for synthetics......They had to know (should have known) something like this was certain to happen.

[andymays]

The Pro Ride surface at Santa Anita is Hocus Pocus Junk in my opinion. It is an “extreme” surface and it plays more like Turf than any other synthetic surface. Very few that run on or near the lead are successfull over it. How many closers won last years Breeders Cup? The closers won every race. It is also absurdly inconsistent producing nearly 50% carryovers at the last meet. That carryover rate is unheard of. Most importantly it is not the same surface that was first installed. It has ground up and degraded because of usage, weather, and maintenance.

Jackson is right to speak up against synthetic surfaces. In a recent poll nearly 3 or 4 experienced Handicappers hate them. Synthetic surfaces are a blight on Racing except in areas that experience as many rainy days as sunny days.

Most objective people are now admitting these surfaces were a big mistake and Jackson is doing Racing a favor by not bowing to the pressure!

[DrugS]

Not exactly one of Paulick's better efforts to say the least.

He also somehow doesn't mention that Steve Asmussen has mind-boggling bad stats with synthetic track runners - except for his 2yo's going 4.5 furlongs on it.

[DeanT]

I think Jackson has played this well and he is playing us all like a violin.

He is upset Curlin lost last year and blames it on the track; that is the reason he is not going to SA with Rachel.

Then he masterfully places it as a synthetic argument because he knows synth is a wedge issue, and that trainers and some horseplayers who do not like synth will follow him into the sun.

This guy did not make hundreds of millions by being dumb. He is playing this perfectly, in my opinion.

[andymays]

Not exactly one of Paulick's better efforts to say the least.

He also somehow doesn't mention that Steve Asmussen has mind-boggling bad stats with synthetic track runners - except for his 2yo's going 4.5 furlongs on it.


I sent him our poll on synthetic surfaces and he's yet to reply or publish the results.

I like his website but I have the feeling he's another one of those elite journalists who wants to tell us what to like and not like. Maybe I'm wrong but this article kind of points him out.

[Imriledup]

I sent him our poll on synthetic surfaces and he's yet to reply or publish the results.

I like his website but I have the feeling he's another one of those elite journalists who wants to tell us what to like and not like. Maybe I'm wrong but this article kind of points him out.

Paulick is being selfish. He wants to see Rachel at the BC and he's willing to toss all the horseplayers who hate this stuff under the bus to satisfy his own whims. I love Rachel as much as the next guy, but i'm willing to sacrifice seeing her in the BC if it means that California will rethink their position and go back to dirt.

[cj]

I sent him our poll on synthetic surfaces and he's yet to reply or publish the results.

I like his website but I have the feeling he's another one of those elite journalists who wants to tell us what to like and not like. Maybe I'm wrong but this article kind of points him out.

He is a journalist, but elite, not really.

[DrugS]

Paulick is being selfish. He wants to see Rachel at the BC.

I'd love to see Rachel Alexandra at the BC so I can empty my pockets to bet against her .. even if she would go in the Distaff.

While I don't agree at all - I have no problem with what Paulick wrote - other than the curious fact that he made no mention of how Steve Asmussen trained runners perform on synthetic tracks.

His ROI is utterly laughable on them from a very big sample - and it would be even lower if 4.5 furlong baby races were removed from the sample.

[andymays]

He is a journalist, but elite, not really.


A couple of months before you did the poll I sent him several emails asking him to take a poll on synthetic surfaces. For whatever reason he refuses to do so.

Any Website that puts up any article on synthetic surfaces knows it's a hot topic and a website like the Paulick Report would get tons of hits and responses from people on both sides of the issue.

I just think there's a reluctance to get the truth out there. Maybe they (the Horse Racing Media) don't want to hurt business for the Tracks with synthetic surfaces. Maybe they don't want to offend certain Racing Executives and have their access limited. I really don't know why but I do know that the majority of Ray's customers and Horseplayers in general do not favor synthetic surfaces!

One of the worst things that can happen to a Journalist is to get too cozy with the people in the industry that he covers.

I don't know Ray so I'm just speculating with a little observation from going to his website on a daily basis.

[joanied]

It's his call to run wherever he wants, and that's the way it's always been. Man o' War's owner skipped the Derby I believe because of the lack of perceived prestige at the time.

However, he may be depriving the BC folks for running the race over the synthetics, but he's also depriving the fans of one of the few chances of seeing her on network television. And I'd venture to guess if you took a poll, the majority of racing fans would want to see her run in the BC.

sandpit... August Belmont didn't run Man O War in the Kentucky Derby because he thought it was too soon for a young horse to go 1 1/4 mile (maybe everyone back then should have taken that line of thought and run with it...I think the Derby would have better served the horses (and their connections) being on the 1st Sat. in June...but, that's another discussion....just thought you'd like to know the reason the big horse didn't make the Run for the Roses.
:) :) :)

[Stevie Belmont]

I agree, it's possible she still could run her on the grass but I doubt that as well. If I owned her, I would not be to anxious to go out there and run on it either.


I think it is more a case of a guy sticking to what he believes in. The BC screwed up big time giving the races to SA two years in a row, why should he reward them?

[joanied]

Like everyone else, including Paulick...I crave seeing RA at the BC...but I also support Jackson's 'boycott'.

I really think it has everything to do with getting the Euro's here...as if American race fans give a good crap about how many Euro horses show up...and we do have turf races on the card...so it's not as if we were trying to shut them out!!!

Maybe Jackson is 'spoiled'...but I seriously doubt he's acting like a 'spoiled child'...he is simply sticking to his belief that synthetic surfaces...well...suck!!
hell, now even Delmar is having troubles...and I was beginning to think the surface there was OK...evidently...not.

I have no doubt that keeping RA away from the BC is bothering Jackson as much as anything...do you think he really wants to miss being center stage on racings biggest day(s)....I'd bet it's driving him crazy! But for a man to stick to his convictions, despite all he might loose (in the way of publicity and being center stage)...well, you have to admire that courage...and for Jackson to 'buck the trend' and not go....IMO, is taking considerable courage on his part.

The BC guys screwed up royally...and they know it, but like most people in power...you will never hear them admit their mistake.

Tear out that damned plastic crap...put in a 6"-8" clay base with lots of sand and top soil...but hey, what do I know:rolleyes:

[fmolf]

Like everyone else, including Paulick...I crave seeing RA at the BC...but I also support Jackson's 'boycott'.

I really think it has everything to do with getting the Euro's here...as if American race fans give a good crap about how many Euro horses show up...and we do have turf races on the card...so it's not as if we were trying to shut them out!!!

Maybe Jackson is 'spoiled'...but I seriously doubt he's acting like a 'spoiled child'...he is simply sticking to his belief that synthetic surfaces...well...suck!!
hell, now even Delmar is having troubles...and I was beginning to think the surface there was OK...evidently...not.

I have no doubt that keeping RA away from the BC is bothering Jackson as much as anything...do you think he really wants to miss being center stage on racings biggest day(s)....I'd bet it's driving him crazy! But for a man to stick to his convictions, despite all he might loose (in the way of publicity and being center stage)...well, you have to admire that courage...and for Jackson to 'buck the trend' and not go....IMO, is taking considerable courage on his part.

The BC guys screwed up royally...and they know it, but like most people in power...you will never hear them admit their mistake.

Tear out that damned plastic crap...put in a 6"-8" clay base with lots of sand and top soil...but hey, what do I know:rolleyes:this years breeders cup will be just as boring as last years for me ....i may not even watch this year i hope the weather is nice so i can go golfing.People stop complaining and start talking with your gambling dollars...boycott all tracks with poly and gamble elsewhere.drop a line at your home track letting them know you have stopped betting their racing product.they'll get the message!Jess Jackson is to be commended :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[david botsford]

Well if the 78% that say they want it ripped out boycotted wagering at those fake dirt tracks then they would get the message. If you wager at these tracks then you are guilty of aiding by a betting.

[joanied]

Well if the 78% that say they want it ripped out boycotted wagering at those fake dirt tracks then they would get the message. If you wager at these tracks then you are guilty of aiding by a betting.

Love your play on words...'aiding by a betting'...brilliant:ThmbUp:

[classhandicapper]

I'm going to take the contrary opinion and mostly agree with Paulick, though I wouldn't call Jackson selfish. I'd call him mistaken. And everyone knows I'm not much of a fan of synthetic racing.

1. As far as I am concerned, it wasn't the synthetic track that beat Curlin last year. Non transferable speed figures aside, I thought he ran well. IMO it was superior European turf horses that can handle synthetics well, combined with what was probably a very wide premature move by Curlin that got him beat. That surface is a lot like turf. It is better to wait a little longer before moving otherwise horses tend to hang badly.

2. RA has already won on a synthetic track.

3. RA is not an unrateable speed horse that might be badly compromised by that surface.

4. She has nothing to lose.

If RA lost to Zenyatta legitimately, they could always blame the surface just like they did with Curlin last year. If she really hated the surface, it would be obvious. She'd still get an Eclispe award and possibly HOTY based on her incredible campaign to date. Her greatness is already signed, sealed, and delivered. If RA beat Zenyatta at home on her own surface, it would make this campaign legendary. So why not take a shot?

The debate about synthetics is not going to be settled based on whether RA goes or not. If anything, the case for removing it would be stronger if she went out there and got her head handed to her because no one could possibly doubt that the surface mattered.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Why do people ignore the fact that Jess Jackson is a California guy? He lives there and works there and was a long time supporter of Cal racing. He knows all too well what happened and the Curlin thing is just a transparent excuse. I don't think he really believes it anymore than Moss thinks that Zenyatta can't run in NY because Giacomo got upset in the detention barn. Jackson is making a statement about the condition of California racing and the track conditions in particular. That's his right.

Next weekend, how much water will the maintenance crew put down about 3 races before Zenyatta runs? Don't try to tell me that the track super doesn't know how to setup a track for a closer. People bitch all the time about tracks being souped up for speed on big days that may favor certain horses and race times but next weekend I am willing to bet that the Del Mar track is "souped down" during the day at some point. Just a guess.

[DJofSD]

4. She has nothing to lose.

5. She has nothing to prove.

[OTM Al]

He is a journalist, but elite, not really.

I believe the proper word is not "elite", but "elitist".

[bisket]

man o wars owner didn't think it was right to ask a 3 year old to go a 1 1/4 mile that early in the year, and the owners home base was bmore

[bisket]

i'd say the vast majority of reporters don't agree with paulick.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Synthetics are a 3rd surface,period.It isn't a universal surface,it isn't an equal opportunity surface,it's a completely different surface than what most horses have ever run on and some horses don't take to it,not because they are speed horses,but because they never get their footing on it.

The Breeders Cup needs to add a 3rd day for the 3rd surface.If that sounds absurd so does the idea of adding a 3rd surface that just clouds the view of the championship picture while not living up to the self proclaimed safety measures it was meant to provide.

[Imriledup]

What will end up happening is that Rachel will ship to Santa Anita and train over the surface. If she loves it, she might run. Jess will ask for an honest opinion from Steve and Calvin if she is loving the footing or not and then make a decision. Also, if HOY is of utmost importance, RA can run in the race that Zenyatta does NOT run in and either way be unscathed.

If RA runs in the distaff with Z running in the Classic, Rachel will get a few LB weight break and be 1-9 and win easy. Jess is still fuming over Curlin but when the time comes for the BC, he may change his mind.

Also remember, that if Jess DOES change his mind in a couple months, he'll look like more of a hero to the racing community than he would look if he just didn't say anything.

[classhandicapper]

5. She has nothing to prove.

I don't agree.

I think she has already proven she is one of the greatest fillies of all time, but IMHO, a win over Zenyatta in CA would make this a truly legendary campaign that would seperate her from the pack. It might even help call into question the idea that modern horses can't take tough campaigns (her current campaign may already be). That would be a great development for racing.

[Imriledup]

I don't agree.

I think she has already proven she is one of the greatest fillies of all time, but IMHO, a win over Zenyatta in CA would make this a truly legendary campaign that would seperate her from the pack. It might even help call into question the idea that modern horses can't take tough campaigns (her current campaign may already be). That would be a great development for racing.

If she went to Calif and beat Z in the BC she would cement her legacy as the best 3 yo filly ever. Even the Ruffian fans would have to take a backseat.

[andymays]

A couple of months before you did the poll I sent him several emails asking him to take a poll on synthetic surfaces. For whatever reason he refuses to do so.

Any Website that puts up any article on synthetic surfaces knows it's a hot topic and a website like the Paulick Report would get tons of hits and responses from people on both sides of the issue.

I just think there's a reluctance to get the truth out there. Maybe they (the Horse Racing Media) don't want to hurt business for the Tracks with synthetic surfaces. Maybe they don't want to offend certain Racing Executives and have their access limited. I really don't know why but I do know that the majority of Ray's customers and Horseplayers in general do not favor synthetic surfaces!

One of the worst things that can happen to a Journalist is to get too cozy with the people in the industry that he covers.

I don't know Ray so I'm just speculating with a little observation from going to his website on a daily basis.

This just in from Ray Paulick!


Andy,

Thanks for the note and I apologize for the delay in responding. I’ve been in the car all day, driving from my brother’s place near San Luis Obispo back to Del Mar, where I’ve got one more day of racing before heading home.

I saw the poll on Pace Advantage that you sent me. Paulick Report did a poll last October on synthetic tracks relative to holding the BC on that type of surface. You can see the results here: http://www.paulickreport.com/pollsarchive/?poll_page=25

We try to come up with different poll questions rather than repeat the same ones. I’m sure we’ll do a synthetic track poll again, just not sure when.

Of course, these polls aren’t scientific, but they are interesting to look at. It’s clear many horseplayers do not like them, both from what I read on boards and from the people I talk to, back East and out here in California. In California, there is acceptance of the tracks as reality and not quite as much hostility directed toward them. Many trainers feel that way, too. They don’t like the tracks, but it’s a little bit like the weather…there’s not much they can do about them.

I’m interested in seeing the science. I really don’t have an opinion, other than saying I’ve given up trying to bet on Keeneland’s Polytrack surface. I play the California tracks regularly, and I think that’s easier because it’s the same horses running over the same surfaces for the most part. At Keeneland, especially in spring, you’ve got horses coming from everywhere with little experience on Polytrack.

Thanks again for the note. It’s always good to hear from you.

Ray


Now I feel bad for knocking him a little. He showed some class in responding to my earlier email!

[jonnielu]

A couple of months before you did the poll I sent him several emails asking him to take a poll on synthetic surfaces. For whatever reason he refuses to do so.

Any Website that puts up any article on synthetic surfaces knows it's a hot topic and a website like the Paulick Report would get tons of hits and responses from people on both sides of the issue.

I just think there's a reluctance to get the truth out there. Maybe they (the Horse Racing Media) don't want to hurt business for the Tracks with synthetic surfaces. Maybe they don't want to offend certain Racing Executives and have their access limited. I really don't know why but I do know that the majority of Ray's customers and Horseplayers in general do not favor synthetic surfaces!

One of the worst things that can happen to a Journalist is to get too cozy with the people in the industry that he covers.

I don't know Ray so I'm just speculating with a little observation from going to his website on a daily basis.

There are several reasons for the industry to be reluctant in offending its information arm, and that entities legions of followers. It would be like telling a 45 yearold that has believed whole-heartedly in the tooth-fairy for that lifetime, that there is no tooth-fairy.

Sure, you need to break the news somehow, but it is probably best to bring about a situation where reality might be able to come out naturally, if possible.

When people hold a hard core belief, it doesn't matter whether it is true, or untrue. And, it doesn't really matter how they came upon their belief either, especially if they have been hanging on to it for years as one of the few things in life that is real. The truth, at this point is subject to their point of view.

If you are unable to lead them to another conclusion, you will never do any better but to earn their resentment for telling them what they themselves can not discover.

jdl

[andymays]

There are several reasons for the industry to be reluctant in offending its information arm, and that entities legions of followers. It would be like telling a 45 yearold that has believed whole-heartedly in the tooth-fairy for that lifetime, that there is no tooth-fairy.

Sure, you need to break the news somehow, but it is probably best to bring about a situation where reality might be able to come out naturally, if possible.

When people hold a hard core belief, it doesn't matter whether it is true, or untrue. And, it doesn't really matter how they came upon their belief either, especially if they have been hanging on to it for years as one of the few things in life that is real. The truth, at this point is subject to their point of view.

If you are unable to lead them to another conclusion, you will never do any better but to earn their resentment for telling them what they themselves can not discover.

jdl


Botton line is that most Customers of Racing don't like synthetic surfaces for multiple reasons and some are valid and some are not. At this point in the debate they should pay attention to the majority of Customers they have left!

I know I won't stop attacking them until they're gone from Southern California or I'm dead. I know what you're thinking. Don't say it! :D

[rwwupl]

Botton line is that most Customers of Racing don't like synthetic surfaces for multiple reasons and some are valid and some are not. At this point in the debate they should pay attention to the majority of Customers they have left!

I know I won't stop attacking them until they're gone from Southern California or I'm dead. I know what you're thinking. Don't say it! :D
-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long live ANDY! :ThmbUp:

[joanied]

andymays....glad Paulick got back to you...and thanks for posting his email (do ya suppose he's read the 'elite journalist' stuff in this thread :eek: )...

anyway, I'll just toss one thing in here (I really don't feel like I should post much in this thread because I'm not a handicapper)... but last time I looked, majority rules...why don't 'they' take a vote (no names, just ballots)...keep the stuff or tear it out...this vote would be among ALL the horsemen in S Cal. (that would include trainers, owners and jocks)...even if nothing came from such a vote, at least the powers that be would see (and accept) what ALL the horsemen out there want.

[Imriledup]

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Long live ANDY! :ThmbUp:

I agree, andy Mays is one of my favorite posters,

LONG LIVE ANDY!! :ThmbUp:

[andymays]

Thanks for the compliment guys. I'm sure Miesque and a few (OK 100) others are gagging right about now! :D

[fmolf]

I agree, andy Mays is one of my favorite posters,

LONG LIVE ANDY!! :ThmbUp:
I'm behind you 100% andy...keep plugging away...Joannie it's a great idea but will never happen....don't bite the hand that feeds theory....

[Relwob Owner]

Thanks for the compliment guys. I'm sure Miesque and a few (OK 100) others are gagging right about now! :D


Many talk Andy, you act....you are going to take ypour knocks but ignore them....well done as always and keep plugging away

[sandpit]

sandpit... August Belmont didn't run Man O War in the Kentucky Derby because he thought it was too soon for a young horse to go 1 1/4 mile (maybe everyone back then should have taken that line of thought and run with it...I think the Derby would have better served the horses (and their connections) being on the 1st Sat. in June...but, that's another discussion....just thought you'd like to know the reason the big horse didn't make the Run for the Roses.
:) :) :)

joanie, thanks for the info; being a KY bred, I've always heard it was because of Belmont's disdain for Churchill and other midwest tracks, which he considered inferior to the NY ovals.

[miesque]

Thanks for the compliment guys. I'm sure Miesque and a few (OK 100) others are gagging right about now! :D

Not so much gagging, but since you are hell bent on this anti-synthetic campaign, why don't you do me a favor and spend your time talking the sharpest and more profitable of the smart money currently in the synthetic pools into heading back to dirt track pools, have them all knock heads against each other somewhere like New York. Shouldn't be a problem to convince such sharp, savvy players since you have your act together so and have stated such compelling and irrefutable arguments in your favor, you should be able to dumb down all those synthetic pools in no time. Can you do a gal a favor since I actually like playing synthetic tracks. :)

[KingChas]

Paulick,Rachel/Jackson,Zenyatta.................all moot points!

The Breeders Cup committee or whatever,whomever.
Dropped the ball ,period.

To all it's ignorant members,a big thank you!

Thanks for ruining the greatest day in horse racing. :mad:

[kenwoodallpromos]

"I play the California tracks regularly, and I think that’s easier because it’s the same horses running over the same surfaces.
So now Iwill search his website for his handicapping technique in Ca!! Anybody willing to share their Ca horse-for-course angles there?

[andymays]

Not so much gagging, but since you are hell bent on this anti-synthetic campaign, why don't you do me a favor and spend your time talking the sharpest and more profitable of the smart money currently in the synthetic pools into heading back to dirt track pools, have them all knock heads against each other somewhere like New York. Shouldn't be a problem to convince such sharp, savvy players since you have your act together so and have stated such compelling and irrefutable arguments in your favor, you should be able to dumb down all those synthetic pools in no time. Can you do a gal a favor since I actually like playing synthetic tracks. :)

C'mon you were gagging! ;)

I'm not really following what you're asking me to do.

It is a true statement that I am hell bent on this anti-synthetic campaign.

Does the poll started by CJ carry any weight?

[miesque]

C'mon you were gagging! ;)

I'm not really following what you're asking me to do.

It is a true statement that I am hell bent on this anti-synthetic campaign.

Does the poll started by CJ carry any weight?

I hate to break it to you but Pace Advantage is not the center of the horse racing universe and a poll with a hundred or so responses may be a reflection of the views at Pace but this participants on this board are actually a more narrow subset of racing fans and horseplayers. The more telling poll was the one asking how many people are playing Del Mar and play without regards to surface (or some such thing) and if I recall that number was clocking in at around 50%, which is definitely not what one would think if one was just reading the ranting and raving. Actual behavior paints a much more accurate picture then what someone "wants." In polls people constantly say they want healthy alternatives in fast food restaurants, but do those items actually have decent sales in lines with predicted results from the poll? No, not even close.

As for the anti-synth debate, well even I am getting tired of it so I am not going to jump in as much, because on this board its pretty much reached the point where its just beating a dead horse. But don't let that fool you into thinking that I am betting synthetic tracks less as I get ready to head to Chicago tomorrow to hopefully further pad my positive ROI I have at Arlington so far this year. :)

[andymays]

I hate to break it to you but Pace Advantage is not the center of the horse racing universe and a poll with a hundred or so responses may be a reflection of the views at Pace but this participants on this board are actually a more narrow subset of racing fans and horseplayers.

I hate to break it to you but a lot more people read PA than you might think. Just because they don't all vote doesn't mean theyr'e not paying attention. You can minimize the results of the poll if it suites you but I think the result are quite accurate when measuring Horseplayers who play 3 or more times a week. All of the Journalists I quote from when I paste their articles read the posts. Indirectly PA can shape public opinion more than you think.

I doubt that you like it when some say that the HANA membership is not the center of the Horse Racing universe and a thousand or so members may be the views of some of the HANA membership but are actually a more narrow subset of racing fans and Horseplayers! I know I don't like it when people tell me that.

The more telling poll was the one asking how many people are playing Del Mar and play without regards to surface (or some such thing) and if I recall that number was clocking in at around 50%, which is definitely not what one would think if one was just reading the ranting and raving. Actual behavior paints a much more accurate picture then what someone "wants." In polls people constantly say they want healthy alternatives in fast food restaurants, but do those items actually have decent sales in lines with predicted results from the poll? No, not even close.

The more telling poll would be to put the identical poll up with Saratoga in place of Del Mar! Do it if you dare but you may not like the results!

As for the anti-synth debate, well even I am getting tired of it so I am not going to jump in as much, because on this board its pretty much reached the point where its just beating a dead horse. But don't let that fool you into thinking that I am betting synthetic tracks less as I get ready to head to Chicago tomorrow to hopefully further pad my positive ROI I have at Arlington so far this year. :)

I am well aware that you are tired of the synthetic debate. As the truth about synthetic surfaces comes out, slowly but surely Horseplayers are finding out that the infomercial from which they were sold was just a little misleading!

Please excuse the way I responded (format) because I don't seem to know how to divide quotes but then again I'm just one dumb synthetic hating Horseplayer! ;)

[DanG]

What [Miesque] / Theresia said…squared. :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[miesque]

I am well aware that you are tired of the synthetic debate. As the truth about synthetic surfaces comes out, slowly but surely Horseplayers are finding out that the infomercial from which they were sold was just a little misleading!

Please excuse the way I responded (format) because I don't seem to know how to divide quotes but then again I'm just one dumb synthetic hating Horseplayer! ;)

Well, since you bring it up I will just suffice it to say that the one positive side effect of listening to the non-stop synth whining is that it has been quite the boost to the cerebral ego, which I am sure is not what those complaining had in mind, so I suppose I should thank you instead. :D


Well there are a lot more people lurking then participating on Pace that is certainly true, but its important to note that you can't vote in a poll unless you are a registered member and the number of votes in these polls is really in line with the number of active posters not those lurking anyway. So in other words, the biggest mouths/whinners (of which I guess I am included in by default), I mean you post enough for 10 posters by sheer volume. ;) If things were as bad as the biggest complainers are alleging then tracks like New York handle should have doubled while tracks like Calfornia should have an 80% drop in handle, instead Belmont handle dropped 14% for the lastest meet.

[proximity]

I hate to break it to you but Pace Advantage is not the center of the horse racing universe and a poll with a hundred or so responses may be a reflection of the views at Pace but this participants on this board are actually a more narrow subset of racing fans and horseplayers.
.

now can you prove this scientifically? :rolleyes:

you may find this subset to be narrow, but you can't deny that it is extremely hardcore.....

[miesque]

now can you prove this scientifically? :rolleyes:

you may find this subset to be narrow, but you can't deny that it is extremely hardcore.....


Oh its hardcore alright, no argument from me on that front, although some might argue its a bit too hardcore at times which is why there are so many more lurkers then active participants. :)

[andymays]

Well, since you bring it up I will just suffice it to say that the one positive side effect of listening to the non-stop synth whining is that it has been quite the boost to the cerebral ego, which I am sure is not what those complaining had in mind, so I suppose I should thank you instead. :D


Well there are a lot more people lurking then participating on Pace that is certainly true, but its important to note that you can't vote in a poll unless you are a registered member and the number of votes in these polls is really in line with the number of active posters not those lurking anyway. So in other words, the biggest mouths/whinners (of which I guess I am included in by default), I mean you post enough for 10 posters by sheer volume. ;) If things were as bad as the biggest complainers are alleging then tracks like New York handle should have doubled while tracks like Calfornia should have an 80% drop in handle, instead Belmont handle dropped 14% for the lastest meet.


http://www.nctimes.com/articles/2009/08/05/sports/horseracing/zc9c10e37b9ecd137882576070074f539.txt

Excerpt:

If it's free, it's me

Track attendance was up 45 percent last Wednesday, as Del Mar offered its first "Free & Easy Wednesdays."

Fans received free admission, programs and seats for signing up for the track's Diamond Club ---- which offers half-price admission on other days. Fans were also treated to half-priced beers, sodas and hot dogs.

The masses responded.

A total of 14,503 fans took advantage of the offer, up from 9,989 in 2008, and the on-track handle was up 46 percent.
Del Mar only wishes the rest of the week had gone as well.

Total handle was down 8.8 percent on Thursday, 21 percent on Saturday and 28 percent on Sunday ---- even with an extra race on the program.

Notice the big number on Wednesday was spun as On Track Handle with no mention of total handle. The total handle numbers for all those days doesn't look so good! ;)

[joanied]

I'm behind you 100% andy...keep plugging away...Joannie it's a great idea but will never happen....don't bite the hand that feeds theory....

fmolf..... I know:faint:

[joanied]

joanie, thanks for the info; being a KY bred, I've always heard it was because of Belmont's disdain for Churchill and other midwest tracks, which he considered inferior to the NY ovals.

I think he held disdain about many things & places:) ...but the bottom line was the fact he thought 1 1/4 miles was too much for a young horse...have you read the book 'Man O War' by Dorothy Ours...best read about the big horse ever...excellent book:ThmbUp:

[mountainman]

andymays....glad Paulick got back to you...and thanks for posting his email (do ya suppose he's read the 'elite journalist' stuff in this thread :eek: )...

anyway, I'll just toss one thing in here (I really don't feel like I should post much in this thread because I'm not a handicapper)... but last time I looked, majority rules...why don't 'they' take a vote (no names, just ballots)...keep the stuff or tear it out...this vote would be among ALL the horsemen in S Cal. (that would include trainers, owners and jocks)...even if nothing came from such a vote, at least the powers that be would see (and accept) what ALL the horsemen out there want.

Let's poll all players instead. They pay the tab.

[mountainman]

Not so much gagging, but since you are hell bent on this anti-synthetic campaign, why don't you do me a favor and spend your time talking the sharpest and more profitable of the smart money currently in the synthetic pools into heading back to dirt track pools, have them all knock heads against each other somewhere like New York. Shouldn't be a problem to convince such sharp, savvy players since you have your act together so and have stated such compelling and irrefutable arguments in your favor, you should be able to dumb down all those synthetic pools in no time. Can you do a gal a favor since I actually like playing synthetic tracks. :)

Are you kidding? People who prefer stabbing on synthetics are EXACTLY the folks I want to match wits with-on conventional dirt races. Your post implies that fake tracks are beatable, but just require superior skills. That's a bit like saying the guy who throws in a 1/2 court hook to win the car has more game than nba ballers.

[DeanT]

Mark,

Why is it that if player A can not win at synthetics and player B can, player B is lucky. But if player A wins at dirt tracks he is not lucky, but good?

I know you play your home track and do a damn good job of it, but believe me when I tell ya (or don't), there are some players taking piles of cash out of synth tracks; and those players are excellent. The 10M handles at KEE and DMR are not from mom and pops; there are not that many mom and pops out there.

[andymays]

andymays....glad Paulick got back to you...and thanks for posting his email (do ya suppose he's read the 'elite journalist' stuff in this thread :eek: )...

anyway, I'll just toss one thing in here (I really don't feel like I should post much in this thread because I'm not a handicapper)... but last time I looked, majority rules...why don't 'they' take a vote (no names, just ballots)...keep the stuff or tear it out...this vote would be among ALL the horsemen in S Cal. (that would include trainers, owners and jocks)...even if nothing came from such a vote, at least the powers that be would see (and accept) what ALL the horsemen out there want.


A vote would be nice but they don't want to know what we want. They want to tell us what we want! :rolleyes:

The handle at Del Mar will wake them up in a big way! It's down significantly while Saratoga has held it's own. Go Saratoga :ThmbUp:

[andymays]

Mark,

Why is it that if player A can not win at synthetics and player B can, player B is lucky. But if player A wins at dirt tracks he is not lucky, but good?

I know you play your home track and do a damn good job of it, but believe me when I tell ya (or don't), there are some players taking piles of cash out of synth tracks; and those players are excellent. The 10M handles at KEE and DMR are not from mom and pops; there are not that many mom and pops out there.

Dean you know as well as I do that if we reverse your comments above and say why is it that if player A cannot win at dirt and player B can, player B is lucky. But if player A wins at synthetic tracks he is not lucky, but good?

Bottom line is that most Horsplayers that play on a regular basis prefer a dirt surface.

[DeanT]

I'd never say either Andy. If you win at this game you are good whether you are playing poly, turf, dirt or harness, and deserve some respect. Beating rakes are one tough thing to do.

[OTM Al]

You know, one thing I don't understand is why people don't see poly as a huge opportunity. With the advent of poly tracks a bettor had the chance to be one of the first to figure out its dynamics and take advantage of the types of skewed odds that haven't existed since the days before the published speed fig. But instead we just complain. I have the feeling there are some players that keep their mouths closed that are raking it in on the synth...

[andymays]

I'd never say either Andy. If you win at this game you are good whether you are playing poly, turf, dirt or harness, and deserve some respect. Beating rakes are one tough thing to do.


The more I think about it maybe it breaks down that most Old School Handicappers like myself who read the pp's, watch videos, and use workouts are mostly in favor of dirt surfaces. It seems to me that most of the guys who use programs to do their handicapping and use betting systems seem to prefer synthetic surfaces or at least don't care about the surfaces. Maybe that's how it breaks down. Who knows? Maybe another poll! :)

[mountainman]

Mark,

Why is it that if player A can not win at synthetics and player B can, player B is lucky. But if player A wins at dirt tracks he is not lucky, but good?

I know you play your home track and do a damn good job of it, but believe me when I tell ya (or don't), there are some players taking piles of cash out of synth tracks; and those players are excellent. The 10M handles at KEE and DMR are not from mom and pops; there are not that many mom and pops out there.

With all respect dean, kee and dmr would handle 10m if they ran over candied yams. And I am indeed skeptical of players who claim to have synthetics solved. When good horses back up on dawdling fractions, or the leaders are 5 across in mid stretch- and to some extent, I think such scenarios do typify all-weather competition-it's a crapshoot, not horseracing.

By the way, I'm less provincial than you might suspect. I play an array of tracks in my spare time. All dirt.

[cj]

You know, one thing I don't understand is why people don't see poly as a huge opportunity. With the advent of poly tracks a bettor had the chance to be one of the first to figure out its dynamics and take advantage of the types of skewed odds that haven't existed since the days before the published speed fig. But instead we just complain. I have the feeling there are some players that keep their mouths closed that are raking it in on the synth...

I have said tons of times I don't mind betting on the stuff, it is pretty easy actually. I just don't think it is good for the game for various reasons.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

Watch the 5th race and 9th race from Del Mar today (Wed) if you want to see why synthetics are ridiculous.

Every jockey grabbing leather right out of gate.

Both horses that fell into lead walked entire way and won.

The only jockey in either race that moved his hands forward was Vergara on the 1 in the 5th race. She was 67-1, got left somewhat at the start, he shoved her up rail to be laying 2nd, and then finished 3rd.

Synthetics = jockey racing

[DeanT]

it's a crapshoot, not horseracing.


Mark, people say that about the Mountain all the time. It's different if you know how to play it tho, wouldnt you say?

And I am indeed skeptical of players who claim to have synthetics solved.

CJ above, just said this:

I have said tons of times I don't mind betting on the stuff, it is pretty easy actually.

You can be skeptical of CJ, but I think you'd have to look for awhile to find a more honorable poster here. And a damn good horseplayer too!

[DeanT]

The more I think about it maybe it breaks down that most Old School Handicappers like myself who read the pp's, watch videos, and use workouts are mostly in favor of dirt surfaces. It seems to me that most of the guys who use programs to do their handicapping and use betting systems seem to prefer synthetic surfaces or at least don't care about the surfaces. Maybe that's how it breaks down. Who knows? Maybe another poll! :)

I think that would be a good poll. Might be something to that.

[Imriledup]

Watch the 5th race and 9th race from Del Mar today (Wed) if you want to see why synthetics are ridiculous.

Every jockey grabbing leather right out of gate.

Both horses that fell into lead walked entire way and won.

The only jockey in either race that moved his hands forward was Vergara on the 1 in the 5th race. She was 67-1, got left somewhat at the start, he shoved her up rail to be laying 2nd, and then finished 3rd.

Synthetics = jockey racing

Agree 100%.

[DrunkenHorseplayer]

If Zenyatta shows and RA doesn't then Zenyatta is the Horse of the Year; simple as that. I've got to believe that if the BC were at Belmont then Zenyatta would be coming; time for Jackson to man up and take a shot.

[Imriledup]

If Zenyatta shows and RA doesn't then Zenyatta is the Horse of the Year; simple as that. I've got to believe that if the BC were at Belmont then Zenyatta would be coming; time for Jackson to man up and take a shot.

Its not really that simple. Zenyatta has to carry her track around with her while Rachel wins on many different tracks and states. I think its the other way around, the horse who 'stays home' has to venture out in the big, bad world in order to make a case for HOY

[mountainman]

Mark, people say that about the Mountain all the time. It's different if you know how to play it tho, wouldnt you say?



CJ above, just said this:



You can be skeptical of CJ, but I think you'd have to look for awhile to find a more honorable poster here. And a damn good horseplayer too!


Watch the 5th race and 9th race from Del Mar today (Wed) if you want to see why synthetics are ridiculous.

Every jockey grabbing leather right out of gate.

Both horses that fell into lead walked entire way and won.

The only jockey in either race that moved his hands forward was Vergara on the 1 in the 5th race. She was 67-1, got left somewhat at the start, he shoved her up rail to be laying 2nd, and then finished 3rd.

Synthetics = jockey racing ( I wasn't sure how to cut and paste this post that preceded yours.)





I'll see your cj and raise you one itp. We could go on like this for days. In the end, my position will be proven (far) more popular amongst serious players. And even if you are correct about fake surfaces being beaten on a consistent basis,-and again, I'm very skeptical-you might as well inform me that certain horseplayers have mastered how to handicap Arabians. Good for them, but it's not thoroughbred racing.

[OTM Al]

I have said tons of times I don't mind betting on the stuff, it is pretty easy actually. I just don't think it is good for the game for various reasons.

I could tell the way you talked about it you were one of the few who saw it as an opportunity. Now if it's good for the game is an entirely different question. Personally I think the stuff only makes good sense as a winterized track, but then again Aqueduct has a pretty good winterized track and it isn't made of that stuff.

[DeanT]

Mark,

It is not about cutting and pasting, or what your, or others personal feelings are about it, or what percentage of horseplayers agree with you. I was simply saying that there are people doing well at it, like CJ, in contrast to your personal feelings that no one is doing well at it.

We all know how hard horseplaying is. Horseplayers have a tendency - and I do not think this is there in any other game - that if someone is winning at something that said player can't, it must be smoke and mirrors. I read any handicapping book and it tells me that I can't make money betting show. I read here and elsewhere that I cant make money playing polytrack. Maybe I can't, but that does not extrapolate to "everyone can't". I know sharp players that make money at poly, I know sharp players (actually one person) that make money at show betting. Why? Because they are better than I am, and I have to improve to reach that level, or choose to move on.

I agree with you that it is different racing, eventho that was not my point of the above. But it is still horse racing. Just like one looks at horses shipping to the Mountain by certain trainers on dirt, I look for that on poly. ITP is right as well with riders, but just like I love to see Rex Stokes on a speed horse from outside first time, and in the right pace set up at the Mountain on dirt, I might look for the same things at Arlington via Junior in routes. Just like I will analyze the above situations at the Mountain based on the track bias of the day, I will look at the same situation on poly in January at Turfway. It can be equally said about turf. That is a trainers and riders and pace and bias game. But I still play it.

For about a year or two I was led to believe that handicapping poly was impossible, and anecdotally I thought it was. But seeing some players whom I respect tell me that they were doing well, I decided that maybe it was me, not the track, and I tried to analyze it with an open mind. I continue to try and learn it and work at it each and every day - that does not mean everyone could or should, or wants to - just that I think if other people can and do well, it is worth it for me to give it a shot, no matter what I think of some of the racing in this non-pure form that is polytrack.

[andymays]

West Points: He's not spoiled; he's prudent

http://startelegramsports.typepad.com/west_points/2009/08/spoiled-or-prudent-jackson-wont-go-the-breeders-cup.html

Excerpt:

Last year, not one horse who had been campaigning on dirt won any of the traditional Breeders’ Cup dirt races. NOT ONE HORSE. All of the “dirt” races were won by horses that had prepped either on turf or synthetics. With that memory fresh, many owners and trainers in the East, I suspect, will decide not to travel with their horses to California for the Breeders’ Cup. And who can blame them?

As I’ve said before, the decision to take the sport’s championship event to Santa Anita in consecutive years was stunningly wrongheaded. If the Breeders’ Cup fails to attract the top horses, don’t blame the top horses. Blame the Breeders’ Cup.

[miesque]

I think its important to keep in mind the very basic rule that people are different and process information in a different manner and have different preferences. Even within the traditional confines of racing you have strong preferences and dislikes among horseplayers. Some can't stand turf sprint and rant accordingly, some hate state bred races, some can't stand maiden races (guilty - maiden races are an auto skip unless they happen to be on turf and I see a first timer on the turf with decent enough turf breeding and odds to warrant a play), some can't stand cheap claiming races, some can't stand bull rings, etc. Some can't stand XYZ track because its "crooked" and it makes no sense (I have heard in reference to a lot of tracks, mostly dirt I might add).

The above reason is why I really don't get the hostility towards synthetics. Its another variety of options with different characteristics and the fact that is a paradigm shift in many ways gives those who haven't been handicapping for 40+ years an opportunity for a slight leveling of the playing field in those races, maybe thats also why I like them. If you are really speed fig based you probably can't stand the synth, but there are still plenty of tracks where if you rely on them. You may not like the quality of horses at all those tracks but there are plenty of options available to you. I personally don't like playing or even watching for that matter races where is pretty obvious which horse is going to grab the lead on the rail and improve his position, but many love playing those races even though the payouts are often not very lucrative. I prefer complicated situations because I enjoy try to solve the puzzle, which most of my play has migrated to turf and synthetics. I let getting into the nuances of different horses in the race. If racing was as simple as pushing a button and getting a number and betting that number, I wouldn't be doing it very much even if it was profitable.

[mountainman]

Mark,



For about a year or two I was led to believe that handicapping poly was impossible, and anecdotally I thought it was.

With all respect Dean, it's your evidence to the contrary that sounds anecdotal. My burden of proof is high. I would have to see bottom lines and betting records-built up over a considerable period of time. Until then your argument consists mainly of swaggering into a saloon and saying to me; " Are you calling my friend here a liar?" Take it easy cowboy. I'm not looking for trouble.

[DeanT]

some can't stand bull rings

If you try and get me to play Charles Town, you are off the Christmas card list :D

Some can't stand XYZ track because its "crooked" and it makes no sense (I have heard in reference to a lot of tracks, mostly dirt I might add).

If you give me a tip at Penn, you are off the birthday card list, and not only because of the takeout.

Point taken. There are a lot of places or types of races that I don't think I can learn, and don't even want to learn.

[DeanT]

With all respect Dean, it's your evidence to the contrary that sounds anecdotal. My burden of proof is high. I would have to see bottom lines and betting records-built up over a considerable period of time. Until then your argument consists mainly of swaggering into a saloon and saying to me; " Are you calling my friend here a liar?"

No probs Mark. We'll simply agree to disagree. No harm in that! :ThmbUp:

[miesque]

With all respect Dean, it's your evidence to the contrary that sounds anecdotal. My burden of proof is high. I would have to see bottom lines and betting records-built up over a considerable period of time. Until then your argument consists mainly of swaggering into a saloon and saying to me; " Are you calling my friend here a liar?"

This statement is the equivalent of a horse player who thinks betting turf sprints is a crap shoot saying someone who specializes in it and states that they are profitable with those races a liar just because they themselves don't do well or have an edge in them.

[mountainman]

This statement is the equivalent of a horse player who thinks betting turf sprints is a crap shoot saying someone who specializes in it and states that they are profitable with those races a liar just because they themselves don't do well or have an edge in them.

Not at all. But i do think we would disagree about what constitutes consistent, proven success.

[mountainman]

No probs Mark. We'll simply agree to disagree. No harm in that! :ThmbUp:

Much respect to you Dean (and cj too, btw- i've heard he is quite a handicapper). I enjoyed the exchange.

[miesque]

If you try and get me to play Charles Town, you are off the Christmas card list :D



Exactly, different strokes for different folks. Its just like a know a few people who constantly tell me that not only would they never play tracks like Penn, Delaware, Hoosier, Beulah, CT and Mountaineer, but they wish "all those crappy tracks with shitty horses" would shut down and go away as fast as possible, so there are all sorts of different perspectives people are coming from.

[Bobzilla]

West Points: He's not spoiled; he's prudent

http://startelegramsports.typepad.com/west_points/2009/08/spoiled-or-prudent-jackson-wont-go-the-breeders-cup.html

Excerpt:

Last year, not one horse who had been campaigning on dirt won any of the traditional Breeders’ Cup dirt races. NOT ONE HORSE. All of the “dirt” races were won by horses that had prepped either on turf or synthetics. With that memory fresh, many owners and trainers in the East, I suspect, will decide not to travel with their horses to California for the Breeders’ Cup. And who can blame them?

As I’ve said before, the decision to take the sport’s championship event to Santa Anita in consecutive years was stunningly wrongheaded. If the Breeders’ Cup fails to attract the top horses, don’t blame the top horses. Blame the Breeders’ Cup.


Boy did he hit the nail on the head.

A few years back I was disappointed when I learned that the BC was going to be held at SA for the 2008 rendition. Out of a sense of geographical fairness I understood that the west coast was past due, it had been five years afterall, but being of the opinion that the AWSs are at first a difficult, if not impossible in some cases, transition for many horses who have established themselves at a top level on what we consider traditional dirt I felt that the surface would be inappropriate for the event. I was willing to grin and bear it for a year and try to maintain an open mind. Then one day while watching TVG an analyst mentioned that there was a rumor floating around that the BC was considering hosting the event two years in a row at SA. I was disappointed but not at all shocked as it pretty much confirmed for me my suspicions. In fact Steven Crist mentioned in his blog recently that he had learned there was a strong faction within the BC who had pushed hard for this event to be held at SA for two consecutive years with the hopes of legitimizing synthetic surfaces. This, and not marketing synergies, I believe to be the real reason as to why we're seeing the BC at SA two years in a row.

I suspect that there are others like myself who may not consider ourselves nearly as anti-synthetic as much as we consider ourselves pro-preservation of North America's traditional dirt surfaces. They really are the true medium by which we've historically gauged and compared past and present performances. With the latter comes responsibility, however, on the part of all in the industry to ensure that these dirt tracks remain as safe as many of us have been arguing they can be if given half the effort that went into totally replacing them. In other words they would need to do a better job than previously, remember Del Mar and Arlington 2006. Is sealing a dirt track the most appropriate method of getting a dirt track to dry? That said, it would be nice if the industry could some day deal seriously with the more underlying factors contributing to equine injuries. I thought Barry Irwin wrote a good piece in the Bloodhorse a few years back about monitoring drugs through an on-track pharmacy, never heard another thing about it.

[andymays]

Exactly, different strokes for different folks. Its just like a know a few people who constantly tell me that not only would they never play tracks like Penn, Delaware, Hoosier, Beulah, CT and Mountaineer, but they wish "all those crappy tracks with shitty horses" would shut down and go away as fast as possible, so there are all sorts of different perspectives people are coming from.


Jess Jackson believes the Pro Ride at Santa Anita is a crappy track surface.

Are you cool with Jackson and his decision not to go to Santa Anita because of the crappy surface?

[miesque]

Jess Jackson believes the Pro Ride at Santa Anita is a crappy track surface.

Are you cool with Jackson and his decision not to go to Santa Anita because of the crappy surface?


Well it is his decision, but the fact that Rachel Alexandra won on Poly at Keeneland makes his decision and the fact he had no issue when she was racing over the surface she raced over at Monmouth makes me :rolleyes:. Never forget, its all about Jess Jackson from the manner in which he makes sure he is the one who announces with a big flourish where Rachel is going to run next (most often with a press conference) maximizing the amount of spin, to announcing the Limited Edition Kendall Jackson wine in her honor. He has sold millions of bottle of over overpriced mediocre wine so he obviously knows a thing or two about promotion and more power to him, its the American way.

[andymays]

Well it is his decision, but the fact that Rachel Alexandra won on Poly at Keeneland makes his decision and the fact he had no issue when she was racing over the surface she raced over at Monmouth makes me :rolleyes:. Never forget, its all about Jess Jackson from the manner in which he makes sure he is the one who announces with a big flourish where Rachel is going to run next (most often with a press conference) maximizing the amount of spin, to announcing the Limited Edition Kendall Jackson wine in her honor. He has sold millions of bottle of over overpriced mediocre wine so he obviously knows a thing or two about promotion and more power to him, its the American way.


The surface at Keenland (Polytrack) and the surface at Santa Anita(Pro Ride) are quite different although I don't like either as you well know.

The Pro Ride surface produced quite a few breakdowns and an abnormal amount of soft tissue injuries.

The most telling statistic about the Pro Ride at Santa Anita was the near 50% carryover rate. How any Handicapper on the planet can support racing on such a surface is beyond me. This is one of those issues where everyone who plays the Horses should agree! Nearly 50% carryovers! :rolleyes:

Jackson is smart enough to know that sending Rachel to race over Pro Ride would be a huge mistake!

[miesque]

The surface at Keenland (Polytrack) and the surface at Santa Anita(Pro Ride) are quite different although I don't like either as you well know.

The Pro Ride surface produced quite a few breakdowns and an abnormal amount of soft tissue injuries.

The most telling statistic about the Pro Ride at Santa Anita was the near 50% carryover rate. How any Handicapper on the planet can support racing on such a surface is beyond me. This is one of those issues where everyone who plays the Horses should agree!

Jackson is smart enough to know that sending Rachel to race over Pro Ride would be a huge mistake!

I can argue with you all day about this and we won't get anywhere as we have been over this before and I need to catch a flight to Chicago this afternoon.

As far as Jackson and Breeders Cup, I have reached the point where I really don't give a rats ass whether he goes or not, especially if horses like Sea the Stars and Stacelita come over from Europe, because I have reached the saturation point of hearing about it.

[andymays]

I can argue with you all day about this and we won't get anywhere as we have been over this before and I need to catch a flight to Chicago this afternoon.

As far as Jackson and Breeders Cup, I have reached the point where I really don't give a rats ass whether he goes or not, especially if horses like Sea the Stars and Stacelita come over from Europe, because I have reached the saturation point of hearing about it.


I love it! :)

[Grits]

Well it is his decision, but the fact that Rachel Alexandra won on Poly at Keeneland makes his decision and the fact he had no issue when she was racing over the surface she raced over at Monmouth makes me :rolleyes:. Never forget, its all about Jess Jackson from the manner in which he makes sure he is the one who announces with a big flourish where Rachel is going to run next (most often with a press conference) maximizing the amount of spin, to announcing the Limited Edition Kendall Jackson wine in her honor. He has sold millions of bottle of over overpriced mediocre wine so he obviously knows a thing or two about promotion and more power to him, its the American way.

God:faint: . . . . didn't you say you had a plane to catch?

Between this, and the last paragraph in a couple of posts back, more a.m. entertainment provided. Clearly getting the drift on how good you are on the synthetics now, while peppering the boasts with handicapping puzzle tips.

Hoping, too, you don't miss that flight.

[miesque]

God:faint: . . . . didn't you say you had a plane to catch?

Between this, and the last paragraph in a couple of posts back, more a.m. entertainment provided. Clearly getting the drift on how good you are on the synthetics now, while peppering the boasts with handicapping puzzle tips.

Hoping, too, you don't miss that flight.

Well I am glad you are entertained and that you continue to hang on my every word.

[andymays]

Well I am glad you are entertained and that you continue to hang on my every word.


I could say the same about you! :lol:

[Grits]

Well I am glad you are entertained and that you continue to hang on my every word.

Don't count on it, young lady. You're simply fodder for my entertainment.

[miesque]

I could say the same about you! :lol:


Fear not, I don't read all your posts and ignore the ones that are repetitive. ;)

[andymays]

Fear not, I don't read all your posts and ignore the ones that are repetitive. ;)


You coulda fooled me! Are you sure? ;)

[miesque]

You coulda fooled me! Are you sure? ;)

Yes, because I am very good at skimming over what I don't want to read and don't agree with and pretty much just assume after a half sentence you are repeating yourself if it looks that way. :p

[andymays]

Yes, because I am very good at skimming over what I don't want to read and don't agree with and pretty much just assume after a half sentence you are repeating yourself if it looks that way. :p

:p

[DeanT]

For the record Andyroo, I read all your posts.

I have been amazed at your use of synonyms to describe all weather surfaces. You break up your descriptions of them nicely in each new post. Sometimes you use 'junk', sometimes 'crap', sometimes 'garbage' and sometimes words that I don't think are even words, but I think (by deduction) they mean you don't like polytrack.

Good work fella :)

[andymays]

For the record Andyroo, I read all your posts.

I have been amazed at your use of synonyms to describe all weather surfaces. You break up your descriptions of them nicely in each new post. Sometimes you use 'junk', sometimes 'crap', sometimes 'garbage' and sometimes words that I don't think are even words, but I think (by deduction) they mean you don't like polytrack.

Good work fella :)


It is true, I am not the best of writers compared to most on the Board. I'd like to think I have a little "street sense" that some don't seem to have. ;)

Up until recently my writing was limited to making circles around numbers in Racing Programs and even then I put the circles around the wrong numbers most of the time! ;)

[DeanT]

No, I was not making fun of you A. You are a passionate guy. If a track I grew up with and loved, played differently because of the surface, I would prolly not feel too differently than yourself. I would be making up new words , as well as or better than you :)

[andymays]

No, I was not making fun of you A. You are a passionate guy. If a track I grew up with and loved, played differently because of the surface, I would prolly not feel too differently than yourself. I would be making up new words , as well as or better than you :)


I was positioning myself as a Victim. Now you ruined it! :D

[Grits]

The above reason is why I really don't get the hostility towards synthetics. Its another variety of options with different characteristics and the fact that is a paradigm shift in many ways gives those who haven't been handicapping for 40+ years an opportunity for a slight leveling of the playing field in those races, maybe thats also why I like them.

If you are really speed fig based you probably can't stand the synth, but there are still plenty of tracks where if you rely on them. You may not like the quality of horses at all those tracks but there are plenty of options available to you.

If you rely on them? What if?

. . . . OK, forget that thought, on to next thought.

I personally don't like playing or even watching for that matter races where is pretty obvious which horse is going to grab the lead on the rail and improve his position, but many love playing those races even though the payouts are often not very lucrative. I prefer complicated situations because I enjoy try to solve the puzzle, which most of my play has migrated to turf and synthetics. I let getting into the nuances of different horses in the race. If racing was as simple as pushing a button and getting a number and betting that number, I wouldn't be doing it very much even if it was profitable.

Please, read some of this stuff before anxiously hitting submit. It substantially diminishes your wealth of knowledge.

Your skim reading can be likened to your skim writing skill. Both never lacking in abundance.

[GaryG]

Well, I find it pretty enjoyable to know who will take the lead and improve their position from there. If I want a puzzle I will try a crossword. I'll take the easy winners and dead presidents any day.

[miesque]

If you rely on them? What if?

. . . . OK, forget that thought, on to next thought.



Please, read some of this stuff before anxiously hitting submit. It substantially diminishes your wealth of knowledge.

Your skim reading can be likened to your skim writing skill. Both never lacking in abundance.

Sorry Professor, I should have typed "if you solely rely" and I will go sulk back to my corner and spare you from reading my attrocious posts and leave this sandbox for you since that is what you really want. Again, nice to see someone is reading what I wrote and has the time to so kindly pick it apart so that I can see the error of my ways.

[Grits]

. . . . . again, that flight.

I'll keep your handicapping tips close, while looking forward to the Million Day card.

Enjoy the cheap stuff; maybe a bottle of the Dom for ya next year.:jump:

Hugs and Kisses to Mr.D.

[DeanT]

Well, I find it pretty enjoyable to know who will take the lead and improve their position from there. If I want a puzzle I will try a crossword. I'll take the easy winners and dead presidents any day.

Gary,

What do you do with obvious dirt speed on some of those tracks to make some scratch? I have real trouble making any headway at a place like MTH when the track is like that. I can pick 6 winners a card it seems, but I can never make any money as I find the winners are bet really hard. I have trouble betting anything under 2-1 as a horseplayer, so I think it is just my bias that might be stopping me.

Any thoughts?

[miesque]

. . . . . again, that flight.

I'll keep your handicapping tips close, while looking forward to the Million Day card.

Enjoy the cheap stuff; maybe a bottle of the Dom for ya next year.:jump:

Hugs and Kisses to Mr.D.

You keep on thinking its the cheap stuff, if thats what makes you feel better about yourself.

[GaryG]

Gary,

What do you do with obvious dirt speed on some of those tracks to make some scratch? I have real trouble making any headway at a place like MTH when the track is like that. I can pick 6 winners a card it seems, but I can never make any money as I find the winners are bet really hard. I have trouble betting anything under 2-1 as a horseplayer, so I think it is just my bias that might be stopping me.

Any thoughts?Dean,

Monmouth has been one of my best meets in the past, but this one has been tough for sure. There were a couple of days with an impossible speed bias (July 4, 10 and 24) but it has been pretty fair. July 1 was the only day I found an anti-speed bias. I wish Tampa started tomorrow. Monmouth is going to get the Philly juicers this month as they take the month off. Uncle Ed has one well placed in the 2nd tomorrow (Dazzling Look).

[DeanT]

Merci, that answered things perfectly. Because I found MTH having some well bet horses still win, but the pattern I was not seeing at all, it makes perfect sense what you tell me about the fair track. I too did decently there the last two years (seeing winners), so I thought I was going off the deep end.

I wonder if the track crew did what they did with HAW the last year and drop a little more dirt on the track. Anyhoo, thanks again.

[DanG]

Mountainman ~ My burden of proof is high. I would have to see bottom lines and betting records-built up over a considerable period of time. Until then your argument consists mainly of swaggering into a saloon and saying to me; " Are you calling my friend here a liar?"

I am indeed skeptical of players who claim to have synthetics solved. it's a crapshoot, not horseracing.

I’m curious Mark; does this same burden of proof apply to someone who claims to profit from turf sprints and if not…why not.

If your “crapshoot” theory is valid; wouldn’t tote favorite %'s follow suit?

Tote favs...
Fld TS-W% TS-WP% AS-W% AS-WP%
10 29% 49% 32% 50%
11 25% 43% 28% 46%
12 25% 45% 28% 47%
andymays ~ The more I think about it maybe it breaks down that most Old School Handicappers like myself who read the pp's, watch videos, and use workouts are mostly in favor of dirt surfaces. It seems to me that most of the guys who use programs to do their handicapping and use betting systems seem to prefer synthetic surfaces or at least don't care about the surfaces.
This one really confuses me Andy. The surfaces are being described as Hocus Pocus / crapshoots / inconsistent etc and you’re saying computer programs thrive in that environment? As my x-wife could testify to I’ve watched enough video for 10 lifetimes and I don’t see why that angle (and a computer approach) doesn’t apply to California artf racing in spades.

[andymays]

I’m curious Mark; does this same burden of proof apply to someone who claims to profit from turf sprints and if not…why not.

If your “crapshoot” theory is valid; wouldn’t tote favorite %'s follow suit?

Tote favs...
Fld TS-W% TS-WP% AS-W% AS-WP%
10 29% 49% 32% 50%
11 25% 43% 28% 46%
12 25% 45% 28% 47%

This one really confuses me Andy. The surfaces are being described as Hocus Pocus / crapshoots / inconsistent etc and you’re saying computer programs thrive in that environment? As my x-wife could testify to I’ve watched enough video for 10 lifetimes and I don’t see why that angle (and a computer approach) doesn’t apply to California artf racing in spades.


Just throwing that out there as a possible reason for the heated disagreement over the synthetic surfaces. I really have no idea why some people like synthetic surfaces. Since almost 3 out of 4 of us on the board dislike these surfaces I would put the burden of proof on the minority to convince us otherwise!

I've had some success in the past and when I handicap a card it takes me about 6-8 hours to cover everything. I read every PP from the bottom up beginning with workouts since raced. Then break down the speed, class, and all the other things you need to make note of. Then the video replays and then the workout analysis to see if I missed any contenders that might be waking up since their last race! Then brush over everything again after scratches and changes and then the visual inspection of the Horses on the Track.

It's a time intensive pain in the ass and it doesn't pay off for me on synthetic surfaces. It seems to me that much depends on how the Jockey decides to ride his horse. On synthetic surfaces it is easy to change running styles but on dirt not so much.

I'm not so good at polling but someone who is could probably word one so we can find out if handicapping and betting styles relate to the types of surfaces we prefer!

[mountainman]

I’m curious Mark; does this same burden of proof apply to someone who claims to profit from turf sprints and if not…why not.





I'm not sure turf sprints are relevant to this discussion, but I would indeed require proof before believing any player who claims to beat them. While I'm certain that some handicappers do profit consistently from such races, talk is cheap, confirmation less common. I hope that answers your question Dan.

[Indulto]

Just throwing that out there as a possible reason for the heated disagreement over the synthetic surfaces. I really have no idea why some people like synthetic surfaces. Since almost 3 out of 4 of us on the board dislike these surfaces I would put the burden of proof on the minority to convince us otherwise!AM,
Where do you get that figure from?I've had some success in the past and when I handicap a card it takes me about 6-8 hours to cover everything. I read every PP from the bottom up beginning with workouts since raced. Then break down the speed, class, and all the other things you need to make note of. Then the video replays and then the workout analysis to see if I missed any contenders that might be waking up since their last race! Then brush over everything again after scratches and changes and then the visual inspection of the Horses on the Track.

It's a time intensive pain in the ass and it doesn't pay off for me on synthetic surfaces.That's how I felt in 2007 and 2008.It seems to me that much depends on how the Jockey decides to ride his horse. On synthetic surfaces it is easy to change running styles but on dirt not so much.

I'm not so good at polling but someone who is could probably word one so we can find out if handicapping and betting styles relate to the types of surfaces we prefer!I finally started to do better at SA-HOL-DMR when I gave up win and horizontal exotic wagers there and started concentrating on Trifectas and dime supers at those tracks.

I'm definitely more comfortable betting dirt races than synthetic. My main problems with SoCal racing as a player are 1) the small fields (a situation I believe is made even worse by synthetics) and resulting lower payoffs, 2) that SA is less reliable as a successful Triple Crown prep venue, and 3) fewer marquee horses are willing to ship in for stakes races. As a resident, I just see the mandate as another dysfunctional move among many by the seemingly corrupt and/or incompetent TOC-CHRB unholy alliance whose dysfunctionality is exceeded only by the State Legislature and recent Governors.:bang:

[andymays]

I got the figure from CJ's poll on synthetic surfaces.

View Poll Results: How soon should synthetic surfaces be removed where the weather is not a big factor?

This poll will close on 08-06-2009 at 10:38 PM

Immediately 79 voted for 64.23%

< 1 year 8 voted for 6.50%

< 3 years 4 voted for 3.25%

Keep them 32 voted for 26.02%

[DanG]

I'm not sure turf sprints are relevant to this discussion, but I would indeed require proof before believing any player who claims to beat them. While I'm certain that some handicappers do profit consistently from such races, talk is cheap, confirmation less common. I hope that answers your question Dan.
That gets to the heart of any of these discussions Mark. I or no one I associate with would be willing to have our financial records subpoenaed by an internet forum just to further an argument.

You’re absolutely correct; talk is cheap…so I produced an example of another sub set of races to challenge your characterization of synthetics as a “crapshoot”. “Conformation” will always be less common in a pari-mutuel environment and as message boards so often prove…people will believe what they choose to believe and I think we will both confirm that assumption.

You and Nancy have fun this weekend at the Mountain.

[Indulto]

I got the figure from CJ's poll on synthetic surfaces.

View Poll Results: How soon should synthetic surfaces be removed where the weather is not a big factor?

This poll will close on 08-06-2009 at 10:38 PM

Immediately 79 voted for 64.23%

< 1 year 8 voted for 6.50%

< 3 years 4 voted for 3.25%

Keep them 32 voted for 26.02%:lol:
Well, you can certainly say that almost 3 out of 4 posters voting in that poll appear to dislike synthetics, but I'm not sure that would reflect all active posters much less the entire board.

I'd guess it's about half and half since the "Who's betting Del Mar" poll indicates that more people are betting on races over Del Mar's synthetic surfaces than are avoiding them.

[andymays]

:lol:
Well, you can certainly say that almost 3 out of 4 posters voting in that poll appear to dislike synthetics, but I'm not sure that would reflect all active posters much less the entire board.

I'd guess it's about half and half since the "Who's betting Del Mar" poll indicates that more people are betting on races over Del Mar's synthetic surfaces than are avoiding them.


Some people that hate em still bet em but they'd rather go traditional dirt in my opinion! I think CJ's poll is more accurate than you might think in that I believe most of the people here who participated bet 3 or more times per week. They would represent the hardcore base of all Horseplayers for the most part. No hard data to prove my point though so it's just my informed opinion!

Beyond that would you say the HANA poll on takeout is invalid as well? I believe less people voted in that poll than CJ's!

[46zilzal]

Some people that hate em still bet em but they'd rather go traditional dirt in my opinion! I think CJ's poll is more accurate than you might think in that I believe most of the people here who participated bet 3 or more times per week. They would represent the hardcore base of all Horseplayers for the most part. No hard data to prove my point though!
Like I posted before: horse men on BOTH coasts I have spoken to: don't like it
Handicappers all around North America dislike it. Seems that this small sample does reflect a larger dislike than one gives it credit for disclosing.

[mountainman]

That gets to the heart of any of these discussions Mark. I or no one I associate with would be willing to have our financial records subpoenaed by an internet forum just to further an argument.

You’re absolutely correct; talk is cheap…so I produced an example of another sub set of races to challenge your characterization of synthetics as a “crapshoot”. “Conformation” will always be less common in a pari-mutuel environment and as message boards so often prove…people will believe what they choose to believe and I think we will both confirm that assumption.

You and Nancy have fun this weekend at the Mountain.

Thanks for the figures and for your illuminating response Dan. But I don't find the data or sample size compelling (or broad )enough to refute my opinion.

[cj]

Thanks for the figures and for your illuminating response Dan. But I don't find the data or sample size compelling (or broad )enough to refute my opinion.

These are from the figures I make, with no handicapping at all, on synthetics for non maidens. Betting the top last out synthetic figure, period. Distance at which the figure was earned isn't considered, nor is a difference in brand of synthetics. If a horse hasn't raced on synthetics, he is ignored and is not considered a contender:


Distance Runners Winners WinPct AvgPay Return ROI +/-
<6 783 206 26.31% $7.34 $1,511.30 96.51% ($54.70)
>=6,<8 5330 1379 25.87% $7.39 $10,184.70 95.54% ($475.30)
>=8 3603 902 25.03% $7.33 $6,611.60 91.75% ($594.40)

All 9716 2487 25.60% $7.36 $18,307.60 94.21% ($1,124.40)



Now, again, that is no handicapping. The average horse loses about 24 cents on the dollar. With these, and keep in mind everyone says figures don't work on synthetics, you lose less than 6%. I wish figures performed as well on dirt.

[DanG]

find out if handicapping and betting styles relate to the types of surfaces we prefer!
I think that’s more to the poorly written point I was trying to make Andy. The only issue I was trying to discuss was the perceived randomness associated with them and Mark’s skepticism that requires someone’s betting records for validation.

I can’t show anywhere near a long term profit on off / dirt tracks, but yet I would never presume that no one can...just because I can’t. To think that there isn’t someone specializing in races that confound others seems to paint a pretty varied population with a broad brush imo.

As we speak there may be some nut smoking tree bark in Transylvania applying angles we have never dreamed of.

Now Andy; you mentioned that you don’t like synthetic surfaces…I had no idea! :D "Carry on" as Doug would say and our industry needs your energy on many issues well beyond this particular crusade imho.

[andymays]

I think that’s more to the poorly written point I was trying to make Andy. The only issue I was trying to discuss was the perceived randomness associated with them and Mark’s skepticism that requires someone’s betting records for validation.

I can’t show anywhere near a long term profit on off / dirt tracks, but yet I would never presume that no one can...just because I can’t. To think that there isn’t someone specializing in races that confound others seems to paint a pretty varied population with a broad brush imo.

As we speak there may be some nut smoking tree bark in Transylvania applying angles we have never dreamed of.

Now Andy; you mentioned that you don’t like synthetic surfaces…I had no idea! :D "Carry on" as Doug would say and our industry needs your energy on many issues well beyond this particular crusade imho.

I'm sure there are some Horseplayers who do well on synthetic surfaces but I can honestly say I don't personally know any. Every single one of the Horseplayers that I personally know from going to the Track for several years have a negative opinion of synthetic surfaces. Now let me qualify that group as those Horseplayes who had the ability to make a significant score now and then during the year. And I don't mean a guy who spends a few hundred and makes a pick 4 ticket going 4 by 4 by 4 by 5 and has it for a dollar and it pays 10k or 15k. Most of the Horseplayers I know who did well wouldn't spread so much and would have P'3 20 or 30 or 100 times and P4's 10 or 20 times. They don't play that way on synthetic surfaces because they don't have the same confidence they have on a dirt surface. The same thing applies to Tri's and Supers. On dirt you can add or eliminate contenders based on their running styles with some degree of confidence (like a horse who needs the lead not being able to get that lead), but on a synthetic surface style changes are a common occurence and you rarely get a true pace.

My animosity towards these surfaces is directed at the people who lied to the public and attacked people that were against synthetic surfaces. That went on for over two years with the public rarely hearing the truth.

The Truth is:

1. Synthetic surfaces are significantly more expensive to maintain!

2. They are not much safer than a dirt surface with a new base if at all!

3. They are not immune from biases from race to race and day to day!

4. The majority of Horseplayers dislike them. In a recent poll that I'm going to cite repeatedly for the next several months nearly 3 of 4 Horseplayers dislike synthetic surfaces! :)

On top of everything else they had to put all weather surfaces in the part of the country with the best weather that just happens to be in my back yard at my home Tracks. I think it rained at Del Mar twice in the last 20 years during the live meet. This stupidity pisses me off to no end and I plan to remind the Racing Officials and Racing Executives in California on a regular basis until they all apologize for lying to the public, put a dirt surface back in, or resign. As far as the rest of the country goes I can live with the junk at Keenland and Arlington even though I'd rather have dirt there as well.

As far as using my energy in others areas I would be happy to help but I tend to piss people off because of my strong opinions on certain things. For example I know my stance on synthetic surfaces pisses off some of the HANA guys because they love Keenland and rated it #1 last year. I don't support that move and hope they don't do it again particularly when they know a significant number of the members dislike synthetic surfaces. I have repeatedly conveyed my opinion to them that they are underestimating the animosity that most regular Horseplayes feel about synthetic surfaces but they don't get it. I believe the Track Ratings were a disaster for recruiting members even though the numbers they used were valid. The format in which they were presented gave more people a reason not to join than to join HANA. I hope they take that into consideration in their next rating.

But that's it Dan. That's what I believe and that's what I know. Until someone convices me otherwise I'll stick to my guns!

[DanG]

I'm sure there are some Horseplayers who do well on synthetic surfaces but I can honestly say I don't personally know any. Every single one of the Horseplayers that I personally know from going to the Track for several years have a negative opinion of synthetic surfaces.
I know this isn’t a news flash Andy, but I disagree with most of your characterization of the surfaces and best players I’ve known for more then 15 years are thriving on them.

That’s all we bring to the discussion…our experiences; our close circle of friends or whatever. I’m lucky enough to know some Nevada and So Cal players who learned to embrace them and use it to their advantage. If I watched races from a NY press box and all my friends played NYRA year round for example there is little doubt my perception would change.

Everyone is entitled to their take on surfaces, racing regulations, ranking horses historically etc…but to make blanket statements that all players feel one way or achieve the same poor results just because my slice of the universe says so is lacking perspective imo.

BTW: Somehow this turned into the whole tired synth / dirt debate and the only thing I wanted to convey (and did a piss poor job of obviously) was not all people are struggling with this and to label them as chaotic is just not my experience.

Have a good weekend.

[andymays]

I know this isn’t a news flash Andy, but I disagree with most of your characterization of the surfaces and best players I’ve known for more then 15 years are thriving on them.

That’s all we bring to the discussion…our experiences; our close circle of friends or whatever. I’m lucky enough to know some Nevada and So Cal players who learned to embrace them and use it to their advantage. If I watched races from a NY press box and all my friends played NYRA year round for example there is little doubt my perception would change.

Everyone is entitled to their take on surfaces, racing regulations, ranking horses historically etc…but to make blanket statements that all players feel one way or achieve the same poor results just because my slice of the universe says so is lacking perspective imo.

BTW: Somehow this turned into the whole tired synth / dirt debate and the only thing I wanted to convey (and did a piss poor job of obviously) was not all people are struggling with this and to label them as chaotic is just not my experience.

Have a good weekend.


My blanket statements are based on my experiences from what I read and what I see and what I hear. I know the blanket statement Mark made didn't sit well with you but they are based on his experiences as well. The point of the board is to express your opinions and discuss them while tring to pursuade the other party to your point of view. I am trying to change hearts and minds with my opinion particularly in regard to synthetic surfaces. This year in particular there have been quite a few articles from various sources to back my opinion so I try to put them up in defense of my opinion.

Anyway, you have a good weekend as well Dan!

[DanG]

I know the blanket statement Mark made didn't sit well with you but they are based on his experiences as well. The point of the board is to express your opinions and discuss them while tring to pursuade the other party to your point of view. I am trying to change hearts and minds with my opinion particularly in regard to synthetic surfaces.
If I said anything to the contrary; I apologize Andy.

Your right; it didn’t sit well because the statement didn’t reflect what I know to be true and I’ve always had an aversion for the adverb “always” when all we can represent is our own narrow point of view.

You obviously represent your case very well Andy and if I was on trail for my life I would definitely want you on my side.

Its time to get back to that grass & “dirt” at the Spa! :)

[andymays]

If I said anything to the contrary; I apologize Andy.

Your right; it didn’t sit well because the statement didn’t reflect what I know to be true and I’ve always had an aversion for the adverb “always” when all we can represent is our own narrow point of view.

You obviously represent your case very well Andy and if I was on trail for my life I would definitely want you on my side.

Its time to get back to that grass & “dirt” at the Spa! :)


You didn't say anything to the contrary and never any need to apologize to me Dan. I like hearing your opinion even if I disagree with it.

Grass and Dirt at the Spa! :)

[mountainman]

I think that’s more to the poorly written point I was trying to make Andy. The only issue I was trying to discuss was the perceived randomness associated with them and Mark’s skepticism that requires someone’s betting records for validation.

I can’t show anywhere near a long term profit on off / dirt tracks, but yet I would never presume that no one can...just because I can’t. To think that there isn’t someone specializing in races that confound others seems to paint a pretty varied population with a broad brush imo.

As we speak there may be some nut smoking tree bark in Transylvania applying angles we have never dreamed of.

Now Andy; you mentioned that you don’t like synthetic surfaces…I had no idea! :D "Carry on" as Doug would say and our industry needs your energy on many issues well beyond this particular crusade imho.

Let me clarify my position. I don't maintain that nobody is beating synthetic surfaces, merely that I'm dubious many can do so in the long run. Your 'tree bark in transylvania' analogy helps make my argument. An angle or approach may well work for awhile, but in the long run lacking real insight, the profits will evaporate. In my opinion, fake tracks are a crapshoot bearing small resemblance to horseracing as we know it. And they WILL go the way of the buffalo. The tide has inexorably turned.

[mountainman]

If I said anything to the contrary; I apologize Andy.

Your right; it didn’t sit well because the statement didn’t reflect what I know to be true and I’ve always had an aversion for the adverb “always” when all we can represent is our own narrow point of view.



Please show me where I used the word 'always' -in any of my posts on this thread. Being misquoted doesn't sit well either Dan.

[DanG]

Please show me where I used the word 'always' -in any of my posts on this thread. Being misquoted doesn't sit well either Dan.
Maybe you didn’t use the word ‘always’…I hope you accept my 2nd apology in this thread. 99% of when I post I’m trying to do three things at once and will be the first to admit I don’t commit every post to memory.

Your doubting anyone can beat them in the “long run” or another version of ‘always’ in loose terms. If each year they have been in So Cal counts as ‘long term’; I can speak 1st hand they are being beaten…I can’t speak for the future however. If you doubt my word Mark; our conversation has hit a dead end I’m afraid, but I respect your opinion as always.

[mountainman]

Maybe you didn’t use the word ‘always’…I hope you accept my 2nd apology in this thread. 99% of when I post I’m trying to do three things at once and will be the first to admit I don’t commit every post to memory.

Your doubting anyone can beat them in the “long run” or another version of ‘always’ in loose terms. If each year they have been in So Cal counts as ‘long term’; I can speak 1st hand they are being beaten…I can’t speak for the future however. If you doubt my word Mark; our conversation has hit a dead end I’m afraid, but I respect your opinion as always.

No need to apologize Dan. I consider us friends and don't doubt your word. We've both made our opinions here clear. No wish to belabor it. I love to debate, but it's distasteful to me when passionate threads (inevitably) become personal.

[DrugS]

I love to debate, but it's distasteful to me when passionate threads (inevitably) become personal.

I'm the opposite.

I hate to debate .. but I love it when things get all personal.

[DanG]

I'm the opposite.

I hate to debate .. but I love it when things get all personal.
Too much! :D

Good note to end on Mark and the feeling is mutual. Have a good show tonight.

[CincyHorseplayer]

Some of these arguments are really,really funny.I mean there is a huge contingent on here that come out in droves when anybody says racing is beatable period!!!Much less this surface or that surface,this circuit or that circuit.

My big argument with synthetics is that last year's BC just clouded the view of true champions(turf discluded)by introducing a 3rd surface.Period.That's my entire argument.

Because of time zones and geography,I don't have to deal much with synthetics.But I'm sure if I did I would make the necessary adjustments needed to get the ROI to a respectable level.

Winning or aspiring to win is what it's all about.But it is so adverse to the thinking of many posters on here that put their mentality on display that I take their synthetic arguments with a grain of salt,simply because they don't think winning is possible on any surface,under any circumstances and want ADW statements and tax papers if you say you do!!!

Andymay, I love your energy and enthusiasm and somone is needed to combat the will of these horseplayer hating tracks.The utter BS of what these surfaces were supposed to represent are just that.You're the guy.Keep up the good work:ThmbUp:

[mountainman]

Some of these arguments are really,really funny.I mean there is a huge contingent on here that come out in droves when anybody says racing is beatable period!!!Much less this surface or that surface,this circuit or that circuit.

My big argument with synthetics is that last year's BC just clouded the view of true champions(turf discluded)by introducing a 3rd surface.Period.That's my entire argument.

Because of time zones and geography,I don't have to deal much with synthetics.But I'm sure if I did I would make the necessary adjustments needed to get the ROI to a respectable level.

Winning or aspiring to win is what it's all about.But it is so adverse to the thinking of many posters on here that put their mentality on display that I take their synthetic arguments with a grain of salt,simply because they don't think winning is possible on any surface,under any circumstances and want ADW statements and tax papers if you say you do!!!

Andymay, I love your energy and enthusiasm and somone is needed to combat the will of these horseplayer hating tracks.The utter BS of what these surfaces were supposed to represent are just that.You're the guy.Keep up the good work:ThmbUp:

To the contrary, i know plenty of players who beat the races on a consistent basis. But talk is cheap, and my hunch is that few people who boast online of being in the black actually are. I've been to forums where NOBODY loses. It's the i-n-t-e-r-n-e-t. Wake up and smell the coffee.

[DanG]

To the contrary, i know plenty of players who beat the races on a consistent basis. But talk is cheap, and my hunch is that few people who boast online of being in the black actually are. I've been to forums where NOBODY loses. It's the i-n-t-e-r-n-e-t. Wake up and smell the coffee.
I completely agree with that and there is also the flip side. (Present company excluded)

The internet doesn’t preclude anyone (both good / or bad) from participating and I feel sometimes the premise of 'guilty until proven innocent' precludes some very interesting people from posting.

The very first time I became aware of this forum it was from a thread started by I believe “Lucky Maria” and she went into detail about her P3 / P4 strategy etc…She was unceremoniously ripped a new one to put it mildly.

I became good friends with a woman at the Palms who played full time and she didn’t want ANYONE knowing she played because as she put it…”she was tired of male players rolling their eyes at her”. Maybe the male chivalry trait kicked in to defend “Lucky Maria”, but its no mystery why to my knowledge she never posted again.

There are ALL kinds on this or any forum…lurkers who will never post and have so much to say. There are those who are completely full of horse shit and all points in between. Over time; there seems to be a BS (cynical) meter that develops, but until I’m very sure…I try and treat people with the respect they show me because after all…these posts aren’t typed from another galaxy. (Most of them anyway :D )

BTW: I met a woman at Tampa Bay Downs last year who e-mailed me from this forum and you couldn’t meet a more down to earth / interesting person. I’m assuming the PA party at the Spa points this out each year that most of who is taking time to type isn’t some three headed monster after all; two headed at the most.
http://www.magnetreps.com/wp/wp-content/uploads/2007/06/x3headed_man_final_detail.jpg

[CincyHorseplayer]

To the contrary, i know plenty of players who beat the races on a consistent basis. But talk is cheap, and my hunch is that few people who boast online of being in the black actually are. I've been to forums where NOBODY loses. It's the i-n-t-e-r-n-e-t. Wake up and smell the coffee.

Well duh!!!That's obvious and that's what I was pointing out.One of the issues with horseplayers is that they are close mouthed and non public.The losers on here definitely outshine the winners because the bitterness is on display as soon as you mention the word "winning".Like this thread.The few that have barely uttered a word about liking synthetics and winning on them are being hammered.

[DeanT]

I'm sure there are some Horseplayers who do well on synthetic surfaces but I can honestly say I don't personally know any.

Hey Andy,

What about CJ here; I wonder what you think of that. Here is pretty much a black box that gives you a 94% ROI. I know you are a good horseplayer, I can tell that from your posts, so lemme ask ya: If you start with a 94% ROI on synth, are you going to make money?

Add a 3% rebate from Betamerica, filter out a thing or two, and use your gambling skill..... I bet that would get you ten points. You would be a winning synth player no?

Dont answer that dammit, I need you to keep posting you dont like them :)

Seriously tho, would you not be a winning player on synth using the above, do you think?

[andymays]

Hey Andy,

What about CJ here; I wonder what you think of that. Here is pretty much a black box that gives you a 94% ROI. I know you are a good horseplayer, I can tell that from your posts, so lemme ask ya: If you start with a 94% ROI on synth, are you going to make money?

Add a 3% rebate from Betamerica, filter out a thing or two, and use your gambling skill..... I bet that would get you ten points. You would be a winning synth player no?

Dont answer that dammit, I need you to keep posting you dont like them :)

Seriously tho, would you not be a winning player on synth using the above, do you think?


I said "I personally don't know any" as in friend or aquaintance that I know from the Track.

One other thing that I might as well add. When synthetic surfaces are playing as fast or faster than dirt I think they're playable. I just can't stand it when all the Jocks have the brakes on and all the others are running up on heels.

Right now Del Mar is playing decently but that's because everyone complained about them digging it up on tuesdays so they changed it a little.

This from Bruno De Julio of www.racingwithbruno.com

This is the link to Del Mars site where he posts some stuff!

http://www.dmtc.com/handicapping/bruno/index.php?f=/handicapping/bruno/090805.html

Excerpt:

Pleasantly surprised this morning of how good the track was for this Wednesday's works. Horses are handling it great. The track sup was very conscious of the fact he made the track resemble quicksand last Wednesday drawing the ire of many horsemen, players and yours truly.

You know managament always frowns on complaints, however, Del Mar MGMT, Dado, Fravel, Harper, Robbins and company have always lent an ear. Some players or fans may call it ranting and raving, but as far as the end result what better way to get the message across, and, much to their credit they listened. "I took some much $@@^&,'' the track sup told a friend of mine, "I only did it lightly on Tuesday''. In reference to the degree of digging up the track and putting it back together again.

I can tell you from experience, I had a filly that didn't eat and lost weight off a race last Wednesday. She was visibly knocked out by the deep and tiring quicksand we call polytrack.So, if that's a rant, so be it, I call it passion for the sport and my horses. I am always going to call it as I see it, especially, when it comes down to my investments and horse's well being.


This business of constantly changing things up in the maintenance routine after two years is nuts and it drives me nuts!

As far as CJ goes I believe he does win if he says he does. Everything I've seen him post tells me he knows what he's talking about for sure. I am not a figure player so maybe that's it but who knows.

[mountainman]

Well duh!!!That's obvious and that's what I was pointing out.One of the issues with horseplayers is that they are close mouthed and non public.The losers on here definitely outshine the winners because the bitterness is on display as soon as you mention the word "winning".Like this thread.The few that have barely uttered a word about liking synthetics and winning on them are being hammered.

Charlie Hustle should be in the hall. Are we friends now?

[CincyHorseplayer]

Charlie Hustle should be in the hall. Are we friends now?

Always been friends.In fact we were both pointing out the obvious.No friction there man!

[Imriledup]

Charlie Hustle should be in the hall. Are we friends now?

Agree on Chuck Hustle. How he's not in is a travesty.

[classhandicapper]

Hey, being one the most contrarian people I know, I'd like to change this debate a little. I'm going through one of those periods where I feel so lost I can barely pull the trigger on any bet. To me many of the results make no sense at all, a lot of the time I don't even understand why the favorite is the favorite (and then it wins), my mid priced horses are running like terds etc...

But I'm talking about dirt racing!

So I pretty much hate dirt racing and think it's a crapshoot! :lol:

[mountainman]

Hey, being one the most contrarian people I know, I'd like to change this debate a little. I'm going through one of those periods where I feel so lost I can barely pull the trigger on any bet. To me many of the results make no sense at all, a lot of the time I don't even understand why the favorite is the favorite (and then it wins), my mid priced horses are running like terds etc...

But I'm talking about dirt racing!

So I pretty much hate dirt racing and think it's a crapshoot! :lol:

Post of the year.

[toetoe]

Love your play on words...'aiding by a betting'...brilliant:ThmbUp:

Me too. Huzzah, horseplayer. :ThmbUp: .

[toetoe]

Post of the year.

Explain, please, Mark. I didn't get it ... :confused: .

[mountainman]

Hey Andy,

What about CJ here; I wonder what you think of that. Here is pretty much a black box that gives you a 94% ROI. I know you are a good horseplayer, I can tell that from your posts, so lemme ask ya: If you start with a 94% ROI on synth, are you going to make money?

Add a 3% rebate from Betamerica, filter out a thing or two, and use your gambling skill..... I bet that would get you ten points. You would be a winning synth player no?

Dont answer that dammit, I need you to keep posting you dont like them :)

Seriously tho, would you not be a winning player on synth using the above, do you think?

So an exceptional set of proprietary figures covers most of the skim, and that proves that synthetics produce predictable results? What about players who employ other approaches? Handicapping factors are like yin and yang, and minus the take, don't forget, win pools are a zero sum game. So if numbers horses show such a surprising roi (and I would have to see a larger sample size to concede that), somebody else is losing their shirt by stressing other conventional factors. And your post pre-supposes that the fig roi can be improved by filtering, but the exact opposite may be true. My sense is that all-weather results may be so out of whack that incorporating other factors with cj's figs would knock down the roi-if not the win % as well.

[DeanT]

I don't know Mark. All I see from CJ's figs is that the results of those figs result in a 26% win rate and a solid ROI compared to most other figs. So that tells me that the results on synthetic surfaces are fairly modelable.

[andymays]

fairly modelable.[/QUOTE]

Dammit Dean! Knock it off! :rolleyes: :D :lol:

[mountainman]

I don't know Mark. All I see from CJ's figs is that the results of those figs result in a 26% win rate and a solid ROI compared to most other figs. So that tells me that the results on synthetic surfaces are fairly modelable.

LOL. I'm notorious for seeing goblins where there are none Dean. In fact, I sleep with the lights on. And I could be dead wrong about fake tracks. But my finely tuned skepticism has served me well both as a player and analyst.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

As a bettor who bets about 70% of his handle in tri's and super's, the number of unexplainable horses that fall into the number underneath due to lack of pace or extreme trip advantage happens much more on synthetics. That is just my opinion and yes I do bet Del Mar.

[andymays]

LOL. I'm notorious for seeing goblins where there are none Dean. In fact, I sleep with the lights on. And I could be dead wrong about fake tracks. But my finely tuned skepticism has served me well both as a player and analyst.


Thank you!