for all the byer fans

[lamboguy]

RACHEL ALEXANDRA wound up with 116 from the HASKEL STAKES yesterday @ MONMOUTH

[kenwoodallpromos]

I'm beginning to like RA!

[Ron]

I think I might bet her next time out.

[castaway01]

What's a Byer?

[CBedo]

What's a Byer?opposite of a sller

[classhandicapper]

As is often the case, I want to go on record as thinking this figure should not be carved in stone. I didn't bother doing figures for the day because the track was such a mess it's likely that track speed was changing during the day anyway etc... However, I think a figure of a few point lower makes more sense in light of prior figures, prior trips, and the trips in the Haskell.

[bisket]

i didn't see any lightening fast times at monmouth yesterday. her time was truly above the rest for the day.

[lamboguy]

a byer figure is just a number that is placed on the horses achievement in the race. it is brought to you each and every day for each and every race track that the daily racing form carries. all you do is pay for the racing form which just went up to $6.00 for a simulcast edition that i had to buy yesterday at MONMOUTH. it is not the law of the land, just a guide. it also is not a tell all. i know plenty of people that swear its the greatest creation in the history of horserace handicapping. most of those people who think that way have come to me for some type of a loan.

none the less it is better than having no guide at all. someone using them might find their way to a few winners now and then.

[Track Collector]

a byer figure is just a number that is placed on the horses achievement in the race. it is brought to you each and every day for each and every race track that the daily racing form carries. all you do is pay for the racing form which just went up to $6.00 for a simulcast edition that i had to buy yesterday at MONMOUTH. it is not the law of the land, just a guide. it also is not a tell all. i know plenty of people that swear its the greatest creation in the history of horserace handicapping. most of those people who think that way have come to me for some type of a loan.

none the less it is better than having no guide at all. someone using them might find their way to a few winners now and then.

Creator Andy Beyer probably likes the figure too, or at least the profitability of selling it. ;) It is a great guide, but not magical all-encompassing number.

[DSB]

Beyer numbers are speed ratings - nothing more, nothing less.

They don't take pace, trip, or bias into account, and therefore can't be considered as "performance" figures.

Having said that, I will admit they are pretty good speed ratings.

[bisket]

Beyer numbers are speed ratings - nothing more, nothing less.

They don't take pace, trip, or bias into account, and therefore can't be considered as "performance" figures.

Having said that, I will admit they are pretty good speed ratings.
i absolutely totally disagree with this. i don't have time to discuss this right now, but there's absolutely every reason to use them to gauge a horse's performance. there's a level of subjectivity to them. they are not arrived at by a mathematical formula.

[DSB]

Well, there is no doubt that the figures don't take bias, pace, or trip into account.

If you think racing performance can quantified without taking these factors into account, that's your prerogative.

[bisket]

the beyer figures do take bias into account. as far as pace i can analyze that myself. basically i look at the times for each 1/4 or 1/2 and look at how the horse finished the race.then i analyze his beyer figure, his time against the track variant, and see how he ran the race. now as far as trip handicapping i think thats important to a degree, but i don't put as much emphasis on it as alot of people. i think alot of times a horse can make his own trip. ever notice how some horses just never get a good trip, and some with a similar running style always find a hole. now jocks can play a role in this, but when some horses are coming up on other horses from behind the other HORSES MOVE OUT OF THE WAY!!! trust me the horses are competing out there just like the jocks. some are the bug and some are the windshield.
the main reason to use them as a barometer for performance is beyer figs take previous performances into consideration when awarding horses there respective figs for each race. for instance they'll take the top 3 finishers and look at all there previous beyers into consideration. they'll say horse A has run these figs before. horse B and C these figs before. this is the time against the variant and this and that was done to the track before the race. so A's previous figs were ? and B's and C's previous figs were ? based on the condition of the track they ran these figs today.

[DSB]

ok... here is the best example i can give that proves my point.

Here's the scenario:

there is a pronounced speed bias, i.e. every race was won in wire-to-wire fashion with the winner cutting fast fractions.

one horse leaves the gate from post #1 and another from the outside post #12. when the gate opens, the 1 horse breaks sharply, gets out to an easy lead and has no pressure through a slow first half. he turns for home with a 5 length lead and turns on the speed heading through the stretch.

the 12 horse stumbles when he leaves the gate and spots the #1 horse 15 lengths. he regains his stride and begins to close in. when he does, he finds a wall of horses in front of him on the turn. he swings very wide and has to try to rally on the outside all the way around the turn. by the eighth pole he somehow catches every horse except the 1 horse who has had everything his own way. but the 12 horse digs in and finishes with a burst of speed to nail the #1 horse at the wire.

both horses get the same beyer.

now, I don't care which way you want to interpret the figures, there is no way you can say that both horses deserve the same "performance" rating.

the #12 horse overcame an unfavorable bias, trip, and pace.

The only thing the two have in common is the same finishing time.

Sounds an awful lot like a speed rating, doesn't it?

[Mineshaft]

a byer figure is just a number that is placed on the horses achievement in the race. it is brought to you each and every day for each and every race track that the daily racing form carries. all you do is pay for the racing form which just went up to $6.00 for a simulcast edition that i had to buy yesterday at MONMOUTH. it is not the law of the land, just a guide. it also is not a tell all. i know plenty of people that swear its the greatest creation in the history of horserace handicapping. most of those people who think that way have come to me for some type of a loan.

none the less it is better than having no guide at all. someone using them might find their way to a few winners now and then.




$7 down here for the Form

[lamboguy]

$7 down here for the Formbut you don't pay extra for the byer

[Mineshaft]

but you don't pay extra for the byer





No i dont...

[Relwob Owner]

the beyer figures do take bias into account. as far as pace i can analyze that myself. basically i look at the times for each 1/4 or 1/2 and look at how the horse finished the race.then i analyze his beyer figure, his time against the track variant, and see how he ran the race. now as far as trip handicapping i think thats important to a degree, but i don't put as much emphasis on it as alot of people. i think alot of times a horse can make his own trip. ever notice how some horses just never get a good trip, and some with a similar running style always find a hole. now jocks can play a role in this, but when some horses are coming up on other horses from behind the other HORSES MOVE OUT OF THE WAY!!! trust me the horses are competing out there just like the jocks. some are the bug and some are the windshield.
the main reason to use them as a barometer for performance is beyer figs take previous performances into consideration when awarding horses there respective figs for each race. for instance they'll take the top 3 finishers and look at all there previous beyers into consideration. they'll say horse A has run these figs before. horse B and C these figs before. this is the time against the variant and this and that was done to the track before the race. so A's previous figs were ? and B's and C's previous figs were ? based on the condition of the track they ran these figs today.


Maybe I am missing something, but how do the Beyers(the pure final number) take a bias into account? Are you maybe referring to the variant?

[bisket]

Maybe I am missing something, but how do the Beyers(the pure final number) take a bias into account? Are you maybe referring to the variant?
yes

[bisket]

ok... here is the best example i can give that proves my point.

Here's the scenario:

there is a pronounced speed bias, i.e. every race was won in wire-to-wire fashion with the winner cutting fast fractions.

one horse leaves the gate from post #1 and another from the outside post #12. when the gate opens, the 1 horse breaks sharply, gets out to an easy lead and has no pressure through a slow first half. he turns for home with a 5 length lead and turns on the speed heading through the stretch.

the 12 horse stumbles when he leaves the gate and spots the #1 horse 15 lengths. he regains his stride and begins to close in. when he does, he finds a wall of horses in front of him on the turn. he swings very wide and has to try to rally on the outside all the way around the turn. by the eighth pole he somehow catches every horse except the 1 horse who has had everything his own way. but the 12 horse digs in and finishes with a burst of speed to nail the #1 horse at the wire.

both horses get the same beyer.

now, I don't care which way you want to interpret the figures, there is no way you can say that both horses deserve the same "performance" rating.

the #12 horse overcame an unfavorable bias, trip, and pace.

The only thing the two have in common is the same finishing time.

Sounds an awful lot like a speed rating, doesn't it?
yes both horses may get the same beyer, but i can look at the comment for the race and find out the horse stumbled. i can also just look at where the horse that stumbled was at the first call, and think why was he this far behind. when i look at a race and see all 1's i know the horse had his way. look when i look at things in the past performances i don't just look at 1 thing as the be all and end all. if you've been handicapping for years. you can just look at the pps and see alot of this within a few seconds. without buying thorograph for 10$ a race or whatever it costs. look i don't play 3 different cards in one day. i play one card and it takes me 4-5 hours to handicap it.

[bisket]

now i will tell ya. after a few races i see a speed bias; i change my picks sometimes. if you see a horse winning with 1's across the board or 2or3 then 1 you know if the track is speed biased this guy moves up. theres lots of things you can come to a conclusion with in pps without these extra handicapping tools. if you know what to look for and how to look at it. the one thing that alot of these computer programs can assist with is to help crunch numbers alot quicker. for a guy who's playing 3-4 cards a day my way of handicapping wouldn't be prudent, but it works for me.

[racefinder2]

Beyers 2nd book(I cant recall the name)went into great detail on 'trip handicapping' and the most important premise-that the way a figure was earned was at least as important as the number. I subscribe to that theory 100 percent. Supposedly the figure itself is a 'pure' number, based on variant-adjusted times, not for trips, pace, etc. Theres a ton of good information thats not in the PPs or bouncing around in the computers, it just takes some time and work to uncover it. The more you know thats misrepresented in the PPs, the better. Happy Hunting.

ps Awesome performance by Rachel on Sunday, but theres not much thats not public knowledge here. In retrospect the 1-2 seems generous.

Also-'The Winning Horseplayer' is the book.

[bisket]

some figs incorporate these type of things into their figure (stumbled, blocked, etc.) i don't like that. i just wanna know how fast the race was run in comparison to others that day. i wanna decide for myself how these other things effected the outcome of the race for the horse.

[the little guy]

Maybe I am missing something, but how do the Beyers(the pure final number) take a bias into account? Are you maybe referring to the variant?


They don't. Bias and variant, of course, are two completely different things.