Bobzilla
08-02-2009, 11:20 AM
"Drenching" thunderstorms are in the forecast and when I look at the weather map it's not too promising for much of the N.E.. Let's hope that the Spa and MTH can manage to dodge the heavy parts of this system.
Today's Fourstardave, R7 at SAR, is a pretty salty group of veterans and looks like an excellent betting race. If someone were to hold a gun to my head I might go with COWBOY CAL w/ Dominguez along the rail. But since my life doesn't depend on my being right I'll think value and give consideration to WESLEY, a pace dependent sort who may actually get it, at least I hope.... how often does it look on papaer there will be an honest pace and a few hold back and one never materializes, seems often. Wesley is reunited with Castellano, the two have enjoyed success together in the past. W won on the Inner Turf last year (today it's the Mellon) at SAR in the G2 HOF stakes for 3 year olds. Since then has run some credible races, most notably the Miami Mile G3 back in April, which he won with an outside stalking type trip, and the Dixie G2 at Pimlico on Preakness day finishing a fast closing 3rd. His last two might suggest being off form but I'm more inclined to think that the distances might have been too long for him, the going might not have been to his liking in either case (for different reasons) and he may have also been going through a developmental regression in his current cycle.
Hopefully the rain will stay the hell away and not ruin what appears to be an interesting and competitive race. I'll play W in exotics with CC and if his win odds are anything like the ML of 15/1 I'll play him there as well and hope there is an honest pace. Good Luck today.
Today's Fourstardave, R7 at SAR, is a pretty salty group of veterans and looks like an excellent betting race. If someone were to hold a gun to my head I might go with COWBOY CAL w/ Dominguez along the rail. But since my life doesn't depend on my being right I'll think value and give consideration to WESLEY, a pace dependent sort who may actually get it, at least I hope.... how often does it look on papaer there will be an honest pace and a few hold back and one never materializes, seems often. Wesley is reunited with Castellano, the two have enjoyed success together in the past. W won on the Inner Turf last year (today it's the Mellon) at SAR in the G2 HOF stakes for 3 year olds. Since then has run some credible races, most notably the Miami Mile G3 back in April, which he won with an outside stalking type trip, and the Dixie G2 at Pimlico on Preakness day finishing a fast closing 3rd. His last two might suggest being off form but I'm more inclined to think that the distances might have been too long for him, the going might not have been to his liking in either case (for different reasons) and he may have also been going through a developmental regression in his current cycle.
Hopefully the rain will stay the hell away and not ruin what appears to be an interesting and competitive race. I'll play W in exotics with CC and if his win odds are anything like the ML of 15/1 I'll play him there as well and hope there is an honest pace. Good Luck today.