Haskell, Jim Dandy, WVirginia Derby...

[joanied]

What a great weekend of racing:jump: ...and I am frustrated as hell because I can't find wether or not Atomic Rain is going in the Haskell...anyone here know for sure? he's in the entires...but I'm not sure how recent the entries list is:faint:

I have my TV set to record the Haskell...it's the only race that is actually highlighted in the TV listings...no way I can record everything...so can anyone here tell me which channel has the W Virginia Derby airing?

I just cannot wait...and would give a couple of my fingers to be at Monmouth & Saratoga this weekend...clone me and get me there:D

Haskell...I am kinda scared of Summer Bird...been training so well, he'll be on his game...and Papa Clem is a fresh horse...but, here's the way I see it at the wire:
Rachel
Summer Bird
Papa Clem
Munnings

Jim Dandy...should be just that:) ...
Charitable Man
Miner's Escape
Kensei

W Virginia Derby...
Big Drama (by a nose)
MTB
Sunny Sunrise

Anyone esle care to jump in?

[RockHardTen1985]

I think Warriors Reward is really good. I am giving him one more chance tomorrow, and I am expecting a breakout performance. He is my pick 4 single. Taking a stand with him.

I like Munnings.

[Robert Fischer]

most likely is

Rachel

Kensei

MTB


The Jim Dandy looks like a tough betting race with the big 3 chalk all having a chance in my opinion.

The Haskel is worth looking at Munnings in the doubles, he probably won't pay much, but only if Rachel is very heavily bet in the doubles pool , try a few small combinations.

West Virginia derby I like Monty's Best a lot as a longshot (although Byron King went and wrote an article on him...) maybe he will still be forgotten. and Big Drama has a shot to wire. I think you go 3 deep in the 6-7-8 pk3 and the 8-9 late double EDIT= maybe you shouldn't even use MTB unless you are worried about getting cash in hand at an OTB

[RockHardTen1985]

most likely is

Rachel

Kensei

MTB


The Jim Dandy looks like a tough betting race with the big 3 chalk all having a chance in my opinion.

The Haskel is worth looking at Munnings in the doubles, he probably won't pay much, but only if Rachel is very heavily bet in the doubles pool , try a few small combinations.

West Virginia derby I like Monty's Best a lot as a longshot (although Byron King went and wrote an article on him...) maybe he will still be forgotten. and Big Drama has a shot to wire. I think you go 3 deep in the 6-7-8 pk3 and the 8-9 late double EDIT= maybe you shouldn't even use MTB unless you are worried about getting cash in hand at an OTB


I am not a fan of Big Drama at all, but how is MTB most likely ? He is totally up against it tomorrow. Big Drama has a huge tactical edge and considering he will 100% be the better price he has to be the play.

As for Rachel, sure she's most likely, but who cares ? She will be 3-5 if not lower I want no part of that. Munnings is fast and drew very well. This is going to be a true horse race, I am sure Munnings will make her work and I really think he wins.

Kensi... ughh. Sorry, Im just not a fan. Stretchout and 2 turns scares me. I love Warriors Reward in this spot and would use Convocation before Kensi.
As for the most likely comment, what is most likely ? Is that your opinion ? My opinion is Big Drama and Warriors Reward are most likely. I will also be betting Munnings, so I guess he's also most likely.

[Imriledup]

No real weight break for Rachel vs the Boys. She's getting 1 pound from most contenders. Interesting weight assignments.

[CBedo]

I have my TV set to record the Haskell...it's the only race that is actually highlighted in the TV listings...no way I can record everything...so can anyone here tell me which channel has the W Virginia Derby airing? I think they are all airing on TVG (HRTV probably airs a few as well, but I'm pretty sure all will be on TVG). It's ashame that we have such a great weekend of racing, and none of it on any of the major channels or ESPN. So much for the supposed "momentum in racing" we got from the Triple Crown races & Rachel. Since ESPN got the Breeders Cup contract and "committed" to racing, I don't think they've done anything but cut their coverage.

[Imriledup]

Can Coa make 111? Anyone know?

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Can Coa make 111? Anyone know?
I heard he is fasting for the entire week to make weight just to have an advantage in this race. No, he probably wouldn't have any energy left if he did that. I'm guessing that the final weight will be closer to 115 than 111. I don't know for sure though. Either way, Big Drama will be gettting a pretty decent weight break for a race that suits him perfectly.

My picks for these 3 races are:

Haskell - Rachel. She will not be beaten here. Munnings will tire down the stretch and Summer Bird probably needs more ground to get close to her.

Jim Dandy - Warrior's Reward. Give him a decent start and watch him kick past them all down the lane.

WV Derby - Big Drama. I actually think he's the second best 3-year old in the nation. Just my opinion.

[RockHardTen1985]

I heard he is fasting for the entire week to make weight just to have an advantage in this race. No, he probably wouldn't have any energy left if he did that. I'm guessing that the final weight will be closer to 115 than 111. I don't know for sure though. Either way, Big Drama will be gettting a pretty decent weight break for a race that suits him perfectly.

My picks for these 3 races are:

Haskell - Rachel. She will not be beaten here. Munnings will tire down the stretch and Summer Bird probably needs more ground to get close to her.

Jim Dandy - Warrior's Reward. Give him a decent start and watch him kick past them all down the lane.

WV Derby - Big Drama. I actually think he's the second best 3-year old in the nation. Just my opinion.


Munnings is primed for a big run.

I expect huge effort out of Warriors Reward.

Big Drama is the play, but second best 3 yr old ? I would think he's not even top 5 at this point.

[alhattab]

Munnings is primed for a big run.

I expect huge effort out of Warriors Reward.

Big Drama is the play, but second best 3 yr old ? I would think he's not even top 5 at this point.

I agree on the Munnings comment. A few more thoughts about Munnings: His female line may suggest he can get this distance. Second dam is La Gueriere who is by Lord At War and a Secretariat mare. Second is the racing surface. Monmouth is branded as speed favoring, and it often is but I never recall the track being souped up for the Haskell. However, there is threat of rain here Sunday and I suspect the surface may be tightened up a bit to prepare for that. Third, recall what Pletcher did with Left Bank. Yes a while ago (maybe others since then), but he won I believe the Tom Fool then tore up the Whitney, and Left Bank's pedigree in my view was not one that screamed 1 1/8.

[jonnielu]

What a great weekend of racing:jump: ...and I am frustrated as hell because I can't find wether or not Atomic Rain is going in the Haskell...anyone here know for sure? he's in the entires...but I'm not sure how recent the entries list is:faint:

I have my TV set to record the Haskell...it's the only race that is actually highlighted in the TV listings...no way I can record everything...so can anyone here tell me which channel has the W Virginia Derby airing?

I just cannot wait...and would give a couple of my fingers to be at Monmouth & Saratoga this weekend...clone me and get me there:D

W Virginia Derby...
Big Drama (by a nose)
MTB
Sunny Sunrise

Anyone esle care to jump in?


Mine That Bird
Awesome Reward
Big Drama

jdl

[RockHardTen1985]

Mine That Bird
Awesome Reward
Big Drama

jdl


What is Awesome Reward ?

[Bochall]

I love the Dandy because it's that tweener race. Are horses prepping for the Travers or are they meant to win today? Love to play against the Triple Crown runners as they may a bit tired and lookin for bigger money down the road. Anyone think Saratoga Sinner (the #1) has any shot in the Jim Dandy? He is a TRUE TWO TURN horse; unlike many in this field. Only Zito's non contender has a 2 turn victory. Ya put any stock in that? I love the Bel-Sar-Bel schedule in NY mainly because the tracks are so different with regard to the elongated "sprints" from 1m to 1 1/8m @ Bel. SarSinner may be purely prepping for the Travers and not well meant today, but his price should be there. Also, for no good reason I will try to beat Forever Together today in the Diana. Her price will be way low in a tough tough field.

[jonnielu]

What is Awesome Reward ?

#3 Awesome Rhythm

[jonnielu]

I love the Dandy because it's that tweener race. Are horses prepping for the Travers or are they meant to win today? Love to play against the Triple Crown runners as they may a bit tired and lookin for bigger money down the road. Anyone think Saratoga Sinner (the #1) has any shot in the Jim Dandy? He is a TRUE TWO TURN horse; unlike many in this field. Only Zito's non contender has a 2 turn victory. Ya put any stock in that? I love the Bel-Sar-Bel schedule in NY mainly because the tracks are so different with regard to the elongated "sprints" from 1m to 1 1/8m @ Bel. SarSinner may be purely prepping for the Travers and not well meant today, but his price should be there. Also, for no good reason I will try to beat Forever Together today in the Diana. Her price will be way low in a tough tough field.

Jim Dandy

Saratoga Sinner
Convocation
Kensei
Charitable man

jdl

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Munnings is primed for a big run.

I expect huge effort out of Warriors Reward.

Big Drama is the play, but second best 3 yr old ? I would think he's not even top 5 at this point.
I know Big Drama has to prove a little more to be given that status, but I think after the race today, more people will be thinking this. I'm a little more scared of Summer Bird than Munnings in the Haskell. I actually think Rachel is gonna have the early lead and Munnings will be coming from 2nd or 3rd. Summer Bird just gets better and better each time he runs.

[rokitman]

#3 Awesome Rhythm
What is Awesome Rythm?

[joanied]

WOW...everyone but me is on Warrior's Reward...but, I'm stickin' with my picks...kinda be chicken shit if I changed thm now:D ...

Zenyatta to crush...like you take on the Haskell... as long as Rachel wins, I am a very happy camper...but I see Munnings & Papa Clem breaking well and going for it, with RA sittin' 3rd for the run down the backstrecth...I hope Calvin has his game face on and is chilly on her...he cannot make a mistake in this one...Summer Bird looks great and does seem to get better...he'll be coming hard, but won't quite make it...Papa Clem is an awesome looking colt...I really think he & Munnings will take it to her.
I'm a wreck waiting for this one:faint: ...
the other biggies this weekend, I am just looking for great racing...although, I gotta admit...Big Drama is going to be tough...I have 2 picks list and he's the winner in one...the other I have MTB winning and that is what I'd like to see...Mike has all the pressure on him with MTB...

Good luck to all:ThmbUp:
May the best horses win...and all come home safe & sound:ThmbUp:

[joanied]

Hey, nice win for Col. John...didn't really expect anything else, despite the layoff...it was an easy spot for him, by design I assume, sure didn't expect him to pay $6.80...hope some of you guys had some bucks on him:)

He sure does look good...love those Tiznow's:ThmbUp:

[CBedo]

Hey, nice win for Col. John...didn't really expect anything else, despite the layoff...it was an easy spot for him, by design I assume, sure didn't expect him to pay $6.80...hope some of you guys had some bucks on him:)

He sure does look good...love those Tiznow's:ThmbUp:It will be interesting to see if Col John's connections reconsider what they said before the race. They had said that no matter what, they would be taking him back to the dirt/synth after this race. It really sounded like this was just the only race they could find for him to get him back on the track. Even though he might not have been primed for a big effort, his talent level was just too much I guess.

[joanied]

Col. John is just a really nice horse...IMO...I beleive the goal is the BC Classic...so regardless of this win...I would think, yes, they will be looking to return to dirt/syn.
Always good for a nice horse to get that all important 'morale' booster after a lay off:)

[Zenyatta To Crush]

Well, I couldn't be more wrong with my picks so far. Soul Warrior? Didn't think about betting him. That just makes Duke of Mischief look that much better for the Haskell. Big Drama and MTB didn't really come back to flatter Rachel either. Then, Kensei and Warrior's Reward go 1-2 in the Jim Dandy making Munnings look better. Maybe Rachel isn't as much of a lock as I first thought.

[Robert Fischer]

I am not a fan of Big Drama at all, but how is MTB most likely ? He is totally up against it tomorrow. Big Drama has a huge tactical edge and considering he will 100% be the better price he has to be the play.

As for Rachel, sure she's most likely, but who cares ? She will be 3-5 if not lower I want no part of that. Munnings is fast and drew very well. This is going to be a true horse race, I am sure Munnings will make her work and I really think he wins.

Kensi... ughh. Sorry, Im just not a fan. Stretchout and 2 turns scares me. I love Warriors Reward in this spot and would use Convocation before Kensi.
As for the most likely comment, what is most likely ? Is that your opinion ? My opinion is Big Drama and Warriors Reward are most likely. I will also be betting Munnings, so I guess he's also most likely.

yawn.

[WinterTriangle]

I play mountaineer a lot at night, track stats showed early rail winning dirt routes at almost a 70% rate. Had to include the #1 to win, which he did. MTB was at a disadvantage here with 2 speedsters.

wasn;t suprised about Big Drama, he sure has a beautiful running style though, but was quite winded at the end of this. I didn't, and still don't think that 9 furlongs is a good distance for him! I predicted him for place only. (posted that somewhere....maybe not here) He burns himself out at the end every time.

[bisket]

i love drama and think he'll make his mark before its said and done. he's just not a router. i little wrinkle that i wouldn't expect to see in comments for mine that bird. says he fought being rated. they may need to put some harder works into him. borel did comment in the belmont that bird wanted to go, and he let him. i don't like this. heres the chart from drf
http://drf.com/drfPDFChartRacesIndexAction.do?TRK=MNR&CTY=USA&DATE=20090801&RN=8

[OTM Al]

I hate deep closers (not personally, I think MTB is a pretty cool little horse) and the WV Derby just says it all. For deep clasers to win it all has to fall right. With Big Drama taking off like that, MTB had to move way early and couldn't make that closing kick. Just another way a deep closer loses, theres only about 40 of them and only 1 way to win. On the other hand, I'd love to own this horse. 3rd in a $750,000 means he just picked up 7.5x his purchase price. He's a winner no matter what happens, though odds are it doesn't include much winning. He'll probably pul a Giacomo and grab a bomb next year but I don't see him winning too often, but he'll certainly keep paying his keep and then some.

[Grits]

Depending upon what Rachel Alexandra does tomorrow in the Haskell, this may go down as one of Steve's better weekends. (Curlin's Dubai World Cup aside.)

Taking down the 750K GII West Virginia Derby (457K to the winner @ 5:44pm) and then 6 minutes later the 500K GII Jim Dandy (300K to the winner @5:50pm) is pretty good take.

It doesn't really matter whether one loves or loathes betting on him, this dude made a whole lotta money this afternoon in 6 minutes, guys.

Again now, I'm serious. SIX MINUTES!!!:faint:

And its QUITE possible, he's gonna make some more tomorrow.

[Java Gold@TFT]

I hate deep closers (not personally, I think MTB is a pretty cool little horse) and the WV Derby just says it all. For deep clasers to win it all has to fall right. With Big Drama taking off like that, MTB had to move way early and couldn't make that closing kick. Just another way a deep closer loses, theres only about 40 of them and only 1 way to win. On the other hand, I'd love to own this horse. 3rd in a $750,000 means he just picked up 7.5x his purchase price. He's a winner no matter what happens, though odds are it doesn't include much winning. He'll probably pul a Giacomo and grab a bomb next year but I don't see him winning too often, but he'll certainly keep paying his keep and then some.
Didn't Mine That Bird's connections get a combined $50K for just showing up? If so he barely made more than that in prurse money. I also loved that the exacta paid $111 and the tri paid $119 with almost equal sized pools. Must have been some interesting twists in the tri combos.

[GMB@BP]

I hate deep closers (not personally, I think MTB is a pretty cool little horse) and the WV Derby just says it all. For deep clasers to win it all has to fall right. With Big Drama taking off like that, MTB had to move way early and couldn't make that closing kick. Just another way a deep closer loses, theres only about 40 of them and only 1 way to win. On the other hand, I'd love to own this horse. 3rd in a $750,000 means he just picked up 7.5x his purchase price. He's a winner no matter what happens, though odds are it doesn't include much winning. He'll probably pul a Giacomo and grab a bomb next year but I don't see him winning too often, but he'll certainly keep paying his keep and then some.

Then how does Zenyatta win every time in a hand ride? Its the horse, if they are good enough they should overcome. This horse is woefully average.

[ghostyapper]

I hate deep closers (not personally, I think MTB is a pretty cool little horse) and the WV Derby just says it all. For deep clasers to win it all has to fall right. With Big Drama taking off like that, MTB had to move way early and couldn't make that closing kick. Just another way a deep closer loses, theres only about 40 of them and only 1 way to win. On the other hand, I'd love to own this horse. 3rd in a $750,000 means he just picked up 7.5x his purchase price. He's a winner no matter what happens, though odds are it doesn't include much winning. He'll probably pul a Giacomo and grab a bomb next year but I don't see him winning too often, but he'll certainly keep paying his keep and then some.

It's no secret that deep closers are always at a disadvantage but imo they are the most exciting to watch. He didn't get there today but it was only a 5 horse field. With his running style he probably will lose more often than win but he'll be a cash register for years.

[ghostyapper]

Then how does Zenyatta win every time in a hand ride? Its the horse, if they are good enough they should overcome. This horse is woefully average.

It'd be nice to see more races from her on dirt. Synthetics play more like turf and closers have the advantage there.

[toetoe]

I usually exaggerate these things, but I fear that Duke of Mischief won't go at the enormous odds I was expecting, now that the place horse from Iowa just won the W.V. Derby in gutty fashion.

[toetoe]

yawn.

Stay away from the mirror, Bobby. Yer playin' with fire, I'm tellin' ya.

[toetoe]

track stats showed early rail winning dirt routes at almost a 70% rate

Please define "almost a 70% rate."

[bisket]

i'm thinking maybe mtb is getting a little to eager. i know smith stated he wanted him closer to the pace, but the chart says mtb wouldn't rate. i think this explains him losing more than anything else. he actually lost some ground in the stretch. he's not the same horse as the preakness and derby. jmhop belmont and wva derby he lost ground in the stretch.

[ghostyapper]

i'm thinking maybe mtb is getting a little to eager. i know smith stated he wanted him closer to the pace, but the chart says mtb wouldn't rate. i think this explains him losing more than anything else. he actually lost some ground in the stretch. he's not the same horse as the preakness and derby. jmhop belmont and wva derby he lost ground in the stretch.

Belmont he did but today I don't think he lost any ground in the stretch. He was actually coming back after hanging early in the stretch.

[JustRalph]

Kensei was a stone cold big bet in my software......... nothing close to him.......

I sat and watched............he ran big..............and I didn't have a dime on him :bang: :bang: :bang:

[bisket]

Belmont he did but today I don't think he lost any ground in the stretch. He was actually coming back after hanging early in the stretch.
yeah but i think he was just slowing down less than the two who ran the faster fractions. i don't think you can attribute his late gain to him suddenly running faster. his past two races are reminding me of his races earlier this year. just an observation. he may have had his 5 muntes, but i still like his running style for the breeders cup. he may be a bomb there :jump: its not like it hasn't happened before in the cup.

[bisket]

Kensei was a stone cold big bet in my software......... nothing close to him.......

I sat and watched............he ran big..............and I didn't have a dime on him :bang: :bang: :bang:
i'm sure its happened to everyone at some point in time :mad: you gotta get yerself one of those sponge balls to squeeze or a pint helps sometimes. :faint:

[Relwob Owner]

yeah but i think he was just slowing down less than the two who ran the faster fractions. i don't think you can attribute his late gain to him suddenly running faster. his past two races are reminding me of his races earlier this year. just an observation. he may have had his 5 muntes, but i still like his running style for the breeders cup. he may be a bomb there :jump: its not like it hasn't happened before in the cup.



I think that there is a good chance that running in all three Triple Crown races has taken its toll.....the pace was quick up front and everyone was staggering home(last furlong over 14 seconds....ugh) and he couldnt make up the necessary ground....overall, the race was pretty unimpressive and compared poorly to lesser races earlier on the card

[jonnielu]

i'm thinking maybe mtb is getting a little to eager. i know smith stated he wanted him closer to the pace, but the chart says mtb wouldn't rate. i think this explains him losing more than anything else. he actually lost some ground in the stretch. he's not the same horse as the preakness and derby. jmhop belmont and wva derby he lost ground in the stretch.

They should get another rider, Smith doesn't know where to place the horse. Leperoux, KD, Robby, or Garrett Gomez would.

Smith, too late for the Preakness, too early for WV Derby. An apprentice should know not to start chasing so early at 9f. Ridiculous.

jdl

[OTM Al]

Then how does Zenyatta win every time in a hand ride? Its the horse, if they are good enough they should overcome. This horse is woefully average.

She is a poly horse, which is practically the same thing as a turf horse and that works a little differently. Let me restate. I hate deep closers on dirt.

[DanG]

She is a poly horse, which is practically the same thing as a turf horse and that works a little differently.
I respectfully disagree Al; (concerning Zenyatta). She just happens to have more starts on that surface. Her Oaklawn Apple Blossom is her most explosive race imo.

[Shelby]

Who got hurt today??? I read two horses broke down and two jockeys are hurt?

[Java Gold@TFT]

Who got hurt today??? I read two horses broke down and two jockeys are hurt?
Shelby,

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=MTH&date=2009-08-02&race=0

Check 4th and 5th races.

[Shelby]

Shelby,

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/instant_pdf.cgi?type=inc&country=USA&track=MTH&date=2009-08-02&race=0

Check 4th and 5th races.

Oh thank you!!! I never knew I could look there!

[classhandicapper]

I'm not sure I liked the ride on Big Drama.

Generally I'm a big fan of the Angel Cordero "open them up" school of riding the main speed. I don't like holding speed horses back, slowing down the pace a real lot, and allowing the rest of the field to be right on your ass turning for home the way a lot of modern riders like to do it. I think Cordero would take the modern riders to school. However, there is a practical limit to opening them up. At some point, even if you are the controlling speed and are clear you are using up more energy by opening the horse up further than you are gaining in position advantage and the ability to run evenly and unchallenged while in front. I think that's more or less what happened to Big Drama.

I'm not really in favor of choking back a rank horse, but I think you have to at least TRY to get the horse under control if he's running off. I didn't see much of an effort.

[OTM Al]

I respectfully disagree Al; (concerning Zenyatta). She just happens to have more starts on that surface. Her Oaklawn Apple Blossom is her most explosive race imo.

10 starts on poly and 1 on dirt is a poly horse. Not saying that she can't run well on dirt, but a sample of 1 is not proof of anything. She is very very good and I actually believe she intimidates her competition, but that running style on dirt will get you beat even if you are the best horse if something doesn't set up right.