Strange Trainer Moves

[Java Gold@TFT]

I really only follow NYRA so I know what most of the trainers training habits are but evry now and then one makes me wonder.

Today at the Spa Pletcher enterred a horse in the 4th named Whydah. Regardless if she goes or not the training is puzzling. He's been working her lightly at the Oklahoma track since it opened in the spring with fairly regular intervals for a 2yo. Then on 7/17 she gets a work on the turf course at the main track with the dogs up. Nine days later she works at the Belmont training track. Five days later she is entered in a maiden turf sprint.

What's going on here? Two weeks ago she is in Saratoga on the turf, then he ships her down to Belmont (for a look?) and then she's back to Sar for a race? I don't usually see this type of stuff out of Pletcher.

At the same time I am more than willing to accept the training of HOF Allen Jerkens. He has a horse in the 2nd that raced 7/22 at Bel, then worked 7/29 at Sar and is entered on 7/31 here. That's ort of norm for him.

Anybody have a clue as to why some trainers go so far off of their usual MO?

I saw a horse from Jerkens a few years ago who he was taking from sprints to its first route race. He always trains on the main track and sits near the 7F chute but this horses last work was 5F at the Oklahoma track. I knew he was just trying to put a little bit of belly in the horse and jumped all over it at 7-1. I'm just saying that sometimes when trainers go out of their norm I'm never sure exactly what they are doing. Did they ship and miss a race in today's example? I don't know.

[Ron]

Could it have to do with barn space why she was moved down at Belmont?

[ryesteve]

What's going on here? Two weeks ago she is in Saratoga on the turf, then he ships her down to Belmont (for a look?) and then she's back to Sar for a race? I don't usually see this type of stuff out of Pletcher.She was entered on 7/24, and scratched when the race came off the turf.

[Java Gold@TFT]

She was entered on 7/24, and scratched when the race came off the turf.
Thanks, I didn't see the scratch list this morning. that makes more sense.

[46zilzal]

Reading people from a distance: FILLED with error

Movie about Dizzy Dean

Father and son go to a baseball game. Child asks "Dad why are the catcher and picture coming out to talk to each other so much?" DAD: "They are talking about how to pitch to this guy."

Scene shifts to the actual conversation Dean to catcher "Do you still have that shotgun you had for sale?" Catcher: "Yes but why ask me about it now?" Dean: "I just wanted to get to you before the rest of the team got back in the clubhouse."

Trying to put YOUR meaning on another person's actives is IMPOSSIBLE in the long run.

A scratch or a maneuver you don't understand can be based on a MYRIAD of reasons

[Tom]

And it can be a repeatable pattern that you are able to make money off of.
Only your individual records can tell you that. But one thing is for certain, if you do not do the work and deny it works, you will never cash in on that aspect of game, like many many people do every day.

[CBedo]

46 seems to forget that chaotic systems are still deterministic.

[46zilzal]

46 seems to forget that chaotic systems are still deterministic.
yes altering the sensitive dependence on initial conditions is really predictive

[Java Gold@TFT]

46, I will always live by the creed that people (humans) are creatures of habit. When they step out of that pattern that they are so used to then something has changed whether it is for the good or the worse. I look to make money on those changes. Maybe a Pletcher or Asmussen horse suddenly works a bullet 3 days in advance of a race. That's a red flag to me. I want to figure out why. If I'm correct about my view of why then I can make some money. It would just be something outside of their personal MO's as I follow them. It's something that the average Joe may never notice and if it gives me even a slight advantage then I will follow it.

A better Baseball movie scene about talking to the pitcher was in Bull Durham when the whole infield was gathered to talk about wedding gifts for their team mate. The mgr came out to find out what was going on and made his suggestion and then sent them all back to the field to play.

[46zilzal]

Habit YES, but they treat horses as INDIVIDUALS.

What works for one may be counterproductive in the second

[Tom]

Habit YES, but they treat horses as INDIVIDUALS.

What works for one may be counterproductive in the second

Fact is, people have the data to show that their use of trainer patterns can be profitable. Show us your data that it is not.

[bisket]

pletcher is one of the most predictable trainers. if his horse has raced 4-5 times i can usually predict where he'll run next, and when the horse will win. most of pletchers horses have a distinct form cycle. pletchers dad was a trainer back in the day, and pletcher is like a good claiming trainer. a good trainer of claimers has two attributes
1- he/she can handicap with the best of them. one thing most don't take into consideration. some of the best trainers can't handicap a lick. they just know their horse, and how to teach the horse the game. any trainer who is good at the claiming game can handicap. pletcher has this attribute.
2- any good claiming trainer has to know what effort he's gonna get and when. this is everything in the claiming game. you don't want the winning effort to come at the lower claiming price. pletcher knows what he's gonna get and when. he likes it that way. he spots his horses better than alot of trainers.
another thing to keep in mind is pletcher gets a percentage of his horses breeding deal at the end of their career. alot of times pletchers horses are in classic races just to have the horses name in the papers. keep this in mind when playing his horses. just by running a horse in the derby or classic increases the money the horse brings at stud.

[ranchwest]

Reading people from a distance: FILLED with error

Movie about Dizzy Dean

Father and son go to a baseball game. Child asks "Dad why are the catcher and picture coming out to talk to each other so much?" DAD: "They are talking about how to pitch to this guy."

Scene shifts to the actual conversation Dean to catcher "Do you still have that shotgun you had for sale?" Catcher: "Yes but why ask me about it now?" Dean: "I just wanted to get to you before the rest of the team got back in the clubhouse."

Trying to put YOUR meaning on another person's actives is IMPOSSIBLE in the long run.

A scratch or a maneuver you don't understand can be based on a MYRIAD of reasons

Anyone who knew much about Dizzy Dean probably figured out that he probably didn't give a flip what the catcher thought about baseball.

You have to figure out what's a possible angle and what is likely noise.

[fmolf]

Anyone who knew much about Dizzy Dean probably figured out that he probably didn't give a flip what the catcher thought about baseball.

You have to figure out what's a possible angle and what is likely noise.
I always thought that was the basic definition of handicapping:determining the likely winner of a race through his past history and the history of the horses connections.There are lots of trainers that tip off when they think their horse is gonna run a peak race....Some raise the horse, some drop the horse, some switch to a favorite distance,others switch to the stable jock,some switch to a bugboy,some run the horse back quickly....the list goes on and on. You need to study trainer intent and maneuvers of the individual circuit your betting to learn all their nuances.

[Brogan]

Habit YES, but they treat horses as INDIVIDUALS.

What works for one may be counterproductive in the second
Sounds good in theory, but many trainers with more than a few horses have neither the time nor the inclination to treat them as individuals. The horse either fits the program or doesn't remain in the barn for long.

This makes good claiming opportunities for others. What does it do for handicappers? Who knows?

[bisket]

one thing to keep in mind about pletcher is he makes more money most times from the horse at stud than by training them. just an example would be any givin saturday. he opens his 3 year old season with a very strong race against street sense in the tampa derby and loses. its at 1 1/16 miles. he comes back and runs decent but losing race in the wood. then he falls off the cliff in the derby. i didn't have ags in any exotics for the derby!! now he comes back in the haskell first out. runs a better beyer than tampa but beats curly and hard spun. i hit a big exacta on that race. ags best beyer in his first 3 races was first against ss in tampa. ags comes back in the brooklyn and wins but matches his beyer in the WOOD ALMOST EXACTLY. finishes in the back in the cup matching his beyer in the derby. i had him in his only win. why? because pletchers runners ALWAYS REPEAT FORM CYCLE ALMOST TO A TEE. just match beyer speed figs. now ags ran with derby fav in a prep and loses narrowly, and is talked about just as much as any other horse in the most popular race of the year. WHETHER THE HORSE WINS OR FINISHES UP THE TRACK THE HORSE'S NAME IS ON EVERYBODIES LIPS. FREE ADVERTISING FOR THE HORSES BREEDING CAREER!!!!. HORSE WINS A BIG 3 YEAR OLD RACE AND THE BROOKLYN. THE HORSE IS ON EVERYBODIES LIPS IN THE SECOND BIGGEST RACE OF THE YEAR!!!.... THE CUP..... FREE ADVERTISING. now when a farm is looking for a mate for their mare ags is a well known horse, and has really only won 1 big race :p . look at dunkirks form cylce this year!! just look at beyers see if everyone of them is the same. its a shame he got hurt in the belmont because wherever his next race would have been he was going to run a BIG ONE $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ petcher does this with every 3 year old. he still hasn't gotten a decent horse to win these two classics, but he's made out pretty good with what he's had to work with.

[bisket]

along this exact same thought process. MUNNINGS IS IN THE HASKELL BECAUSE RACHEL IS THERE AND ITS A BIG RACE MEDIA WISE. think about it. leave him out of your exotics!!