Giving Up On Racing

[rebrick99]

Well after 25yrs of handicapping and using 10 diffrent programs and studying
the form i have had enough. I was a loser then and still am. I dont want
to sound like sour grapes but i dont think many handicappers can honestly
say they are ahead in this game. For a owner and trainer to make a living in
this game they have to stay ahead of the public. You never know when they are trying to win a race. I see a horse that could beat a field it is in but the
trainer doesn't go for it today but will wait for another race down the road.You never know when they are trying to win or out for a conditioning
race. When you start to guess thats when you loose. I think i will find another
hobby.

[acorn54]

at the otb's in new york they have signs that say horsebetting is for entertainment purposes only. if you look at it like that you will have no disappointments. if you can come close to breakeven for the year you have a good time passer for very little money. personally i have had a -2 percent loss the past two years, but i get a kick out of using the software i use and it beats playing video games on the computer or playing the games at pogo.com.
the fact that there is a huge takeout rate of 15 percent or more and the fact that if you do beat the takeout and show a profit you have to pay taxes on that profit really shows that horserace betting is a very poor venue for trying to make money.
an old timer at the track once told me, "if you don't take this game too seriously it is alot of fun."

[rebrick99]

Yes horseracing is fun but i like to win. If i can't win at this game i'd rather
not play.

[njcurveball]

Well after 25yrs of handicapping and using 10 diffrent programs and studying
the form i have had enough.


One thing about this game, mentally exhausted handicapping isn't going to win. Best you take a break. If you miss it, come back, if not, you saved your cash. One suggestion for you is to stop looking at the last 25 years. You cannot recoup all of that cash in one day anyway.

If you decide to return, play each day slowly, betting about 2% of your bankroll maximum on any race. Log the results and make adjustments.

I have seen many losers, they all overbet their bankroll and they all try to make too many bets in a single race. Cover this, cover that, backwheel, across the board, many terms that losers use over and over.
It is a simple game that has a very large takeout making it tough to just break even. One thing you learn quickly in poker is playing too many hands with bad cards is a road to the poor house.

But what if my 9-10 unsuited would have flopped a straight or my 3-5 suited would have made a flush. Unlike poker it takes real talent to recognize which races to play or pass in this game.

What if you sat at a game of Texas Hold em and was allowed to look at every hand for free? Could you win? Of course you could. Just play pocket aces. There are 30 tracks running on most days. That is 300 races to pick and choose your very best bets.

Surely after 25 years you have some favorites. HTR has a few spots that are "pocket aces". I am sure other programs have similar. Just play them, NO other bets, no exotics, no wheels, no across the board, just best bets to win.

As long as you do not overbet your bankroll, you are pretty much assured of winning at least a little for the year.

Most would laugh if I told them to bet $100,000 to show a $1,000 profit for the year. Most would want $200,000 or more from that. That is why MOST lose.

[Handiman]

I play a lot of Poker and a lot of horses. I am disabled and so do not work. I can truly say I am a winning poker player. But that didn't happen until I heard the following and realized it's true. "You will never become a winning poker player until you can throw away winning hands." May sound stupid on it's face, but the idea is that you have to quit playing too many hands and can't get upset if the hands you throw away would have ended up winning.

So I started in the beginning, after hearing that, to throw everything away and just play premium hands. And over time I learned not to worry about what I missed, but how to play the good hands. And as a result I had more time to study the game and learned how to win with less powerful hands.

Where that relates to handicapping is playing a lot less races and just playing for value in specific situations. There is a free software that Doug Wood created that is helping several players turn their game around. You might want to try it and be very selective with the races you play. You might be surprised how you do and the fun might return.

But whatever you do, good luck and have fun!

Handi :)

[LottaKash]

Well after 25yrs of handicapping and using 10 diffrent programs and studying the form i have had enough. I

Hey Rebrick, I feel for you....Any handicapper-player that is worth his salt, has been in your shoes, and maybe more times than they would care to admit....I know I have...I have found my own way of going and it is working and quite well at that, but it wasn't always that way for me....

It seems that you are at a crossroads of a sort, and when it was like this for me, I would just take a good long break....I wouldn't even think about the ponies, whatsover....I always came back, it was mean't to be, I guess....This may not happen for you, but I urge you to take that much needed hiatus....It will only do you good, I think....

Perhaps, after using so many programs your head is swimming with too much information and you have lost your way....I have found that once back, I would try to simplify the process from what I had been doing prior to the vacation, and often, being freshened with a whole new "mental" outlook, things would be better than before...Maybe not peaches n' cream and knock em dead scores and such, but, still an improvement from days gone bye....

Me personally, I use only 2-factors to screen the entries for further handicapping and investigation...If any horse cannot pass muster on those two counts, then I will just continue searching for contenders....Once I find a hoss with the 2-counts, then I will expand my search to 6-factors, but generally no more than that...I have found that almost every single winning horse will have at least one of those 6-factors in his background.....That is about as simple as I can make it....But, this simplicity keeps me in check, and I know that I am always on a live horse when I play....

Maybe you can simplify things yourself....Maybe you are playing too many races or overbetting them as well....If my perception is correct, you seem to be dwelling on "trainer larceny" more than relying on your own skills....Second guessing yourself and or the trainer intentions, is the quickest way to the "poorhouse" that I know of....

Maybe reading one "new" good book, and dedicating yourself, for a good while, rather than jumping from one way to another, to just find that one philosphy or style or system that just might do the trick for you....

In any event, take the vacation....and Good-Luck in whatever you do next...

best,

[kenwoodallpromos]

I have ony been following racing seriously (not always often) for about 12 years. Here is some of what I found out what I have to do to win:
1) Paper test a small combination of likely angles until you adjust the correct angles in the correct race types.
2) Keep up with the changes of track speed, weather, trainers' general conditioning methods as well as specific method that works for specific horses.
3) Bet only on overlays of 25% or more (to beat the takeout) based on statistical probabilities.
4) Bet specific tracks that are good for your handicapping methods.
5) If you begin losing more than winning, something general may have changed on the track in racing, not streaks of good or bad luck.
6) Do not waiver off of your proven methods at all. Brisnet's "Handicapper's Edge" is good to watch for track trends.
7) Remember- almost always bettors as a group bet the same tote odds over time- they do not really make drastic shifts in betting (except recent online, last minute bets.
8) Anticipate last minute odds changes and scratches, usually to the low odds horses, but sometimes away from the favorite if overbey close to post time.
Good luck with whatever fills your handicapping time!

[Jake]

One thing about this game, mentally exhausted handicapping isn't going to win. Best you take a break. If you miss it, come back, if not, you saved your cash. One suggestion for you is to stop looking at the last 25 years. You cannot recoup all of that cash in one day anyway.

If you decide to return, play each day slowly, betting about 2% of your bankroll maximum on any race. Log the results and make adjustments.

I have seen many losers, they all overbet their bankroll and they all try to make too many bets in a single race. Cover this, cover that, backwheel, across the board, many terms that losers use over and over.
It is a simple game that has a very large takeout making it tough to just break even. One thing you learn quickly in poker is playing too many hands with bad cards is a road to the poor house.

But what if my 9-10 unsuited would have flopped a straight or my 3-5 suited would have made a flush. Unlike poker it takes real talent to recognize which races to play or pass in this game.

What if you sat at a game of Texas Hold em and was allowed to look at every hand for free? Could you win? Of course you could. Just play pocket aces. There are 30 tracks running on most days. That is 300 races to pick and choose your very best bets.

Surely after 25 years you have some favorites. HTR has a few spots that are "pocket aces". I am sure other programs have similar. Just play them, NO other bets, no exotics, no wheels, no across the board, just best bets to win.

As long as you do not overbet your bankroll, you are pretty much assured of winning at least a little for the year.

Most would laugh if I told them to bet $100,000 to show a $1,000 profit for the year. Most would want $200,000 or more from that. That is why MOST lose.

Some very good advice given here. You can make good money playing the right races, and having the discipline never to overbet your bankroll. But very few handicappers can mentally stay the course long term.

[rrbauer]

at the otb's in new york they have signs that say horsebetting is for entertainment purposes only. if you look at it like that you will have no disappointments. "

And, no money. The "hint" on racing as entertainment comes from the steady decline in the live gate over the past 15 years.

[DanG]

Great advice in this thread.

The poker / racing analogy is perfect imo. Hands are dealt in a cyber second on line; even a hand of strength can be thrown away because your brain knows the cyber dealer is shuffling the deck until infinity.

In racing; you probably have spent considerable time on one event and ‘mucking’ all that hard work (sometimes several times a day) can take the discipline of a Buddhist monk. Let the players who have spent literally days on the first two Saratoga cards (11 grass races I believe) have them washed out by rain and then take their blood pressure. It’s tough and anyone who tells you differently is selling you something.

However; with all its flaws it’s still the most stimulating game imo and perhaps the most self satisfying to excel at.

[Tom Barrister]

Well after 25yrs of handicapping and using 10 diffrent programs and studying
the form i have had enough. I was a loser then and still am. I

If you haven't learned to win in 25 years, after reading all of the books and using all of the different programs you probably never will. It's time to either move on to something else or limit yourself to easily affordable bets (i.e. $2).

[jonnielu]

Well after 25yrs of handicapping and using 10 diffrent programs and studying
the form i have had enough. I was a loser then and still am. I dont want
to sound like sour grapes but i dont think many handicappers can honestly
say they are ahead in this game. For a owner and trainer to make a living in
this game they have to stay ahead of the public. You never know when they are trying to win a race. I see a horse that could beat a field it is in but the
trainer doesn't go for it today but will wait for another race down the road.You never know when they are trying to win or out for a conditioning
race. When you start to guess thats when you loose. I think i will find another
hobby.

Why quit now, there must be something you like about horseracing to stick around for 25 years. Now that you have reached some understanding of the game, it seems that you only need to re-apply yourself. You have learned and verified something that escapes 97% of handicappers even after 70 years of observation. That is, that the handicapping is already done.

Those four contenders at the bottom of the program page will win 70% of the races today. You have learned that. It is as good as past performance handicapping gets, and there are literally thousands of people that are willing to stay up all night long studying form until their eyes bleed, trying to do better. You know that they can't. This is a major advancement for you.

Your statement above also causes me to suspect that you may even realize who you playing against. Not the other players, because it is impossible to play against them while you are doing all the same things in the same way that they are, through past performance handicapping. Sure they may be playing different angles, but all of the past performance angles in the world just make a big bag of angles. You probably have concluded that as well, no further study is needed.

You have arrived now at the point you need to be in order to stick one leading foot into the 3% zone of winners. Why pull up? If you are confident in the above, you are free to study horseracing as it is, without betting a dime, or leaving the house. What could be better?

Hell, since you are quitting anyway,you could do some important research for the whole board, Saratoga opens tomorrow, and everybody here thinks there is something tough about playing that meeting. You could follow it without betting or handicapping, with an eye toward which contender will run well today.

Here's how, take note of the 4 lowest ML odds horses, and at 5 MTP see if any are on the board at half of the ML, yes? Then look to see if that horse is warming up extensively or beyond normal or alone. If yes, then bet to win on paper. If no, look to the rest of the field for another that is half its ML - 20-1 goes to 10, or 10-1 goes to 5. Look for that extensive warmup. Yes is a paper bet, no is pass.

Let us know your results after Labor day, when you announce your comeback.

jdl

[1st time lasix]

With the time you have been pouring over stats and pp's.....go to the gym and workout every day....slowly at first to avoid injury. By Labor day you will feel a lot better. Go to the Breeder's Cup simulcast treating it merely like entertainment. If you keep up the exercise....by Thanksgiving there will be a new you. Your attitude will improve and your family will appreciate that you will live a longer healthier life.

[joanied]

I prob'ly have no business in this thread....but I hate to see anyone give up on anything, rebrick99... the guys gave you some good advice for staying in the game and tossing out the last 25 years of handicapping...'I think Jonnielu's idea for you to 'handicap' Saratoga, without placing bets as a sort of research thing for the board is excellent...it'd give you 'entertainment', keep you at the track and might possibly give you fresh insight into the handicapping game...my suggestion would kinda go along with this idea of jonnielu's....just get out to the track and enjoy the beauty and courage of the horses...watch the races with an eye towards the splendor of the sport...the horses, the colors, the rush:jump:
:) :) :)

[DJofSD]

With the time you have been pouring over stats and pp's.....go to the gym and workout every day....slowly at first to avoid injury. By Labor day you will feel a lot better. Go to the Breeder's Cup simulcast treating it merely like entertainment. If you keep up the exercise....by Thanksgiving there will be a new you. Your attitude will improve and your family will appreciate that you will live a longer healthier life.
To see this advice in action, watch "The Hanny Project" on the Golf Channel to see Charles Barkley (yes, that one) work on his 'tude, swing and losing weight. You would not believe the effort he's making to change 10+ years of a deteriorating swing. He used to be a single digit handicap golfer.

Additionally, learning to take breaks from the handicapping can keep you from burning out. Ask Tom Brohamer about his fishing trips.

[DeanT]

rebrick,

Thanks for the post. There have been probably millions of you who have left the sport because they feel they have no chance to beat it, for greener pastures; but they will not say anything, they just fade off.

I left it for several years in the 1990's because it was too difficult and I found other things to do with my time and money that were less difficult. I came back after several years to play. Perhaps some time off would help you along.

Regardless, whatever you decide I hope you are happy with it. Thanks again for sharing your story.

D

[andymays]

Once it's in your blood you can want to walk away and you can try to walk away but something will pull you back in.

The Godfather line ... "I though I was out and they pulled me back in" or something like that.

[Donnie]

DJofSD and 1st time Laxis both hit the nail on the head: don't forget to live your life!! I see too many players "all consumed" by handicapping. They burn themselves out and forget to enjoy life. Handicapping should be a part of life, not the other way around!

Couple quick self exploratory questions:

1. In the past 25 years, what have you changed? The game most certainly has changed.....
2. 10 software products? Do these come with support, either direct (from the writer directly) or informal (Bulletin Boards, message boards, etc.). Help from a peer can make all the difference in the world. Not trully understanding what the software is doing for you will lead to confusion and mis-steps.
3. Have you explored areas that may take more time than just analyzing the Form? Trainer patterns? Personal Speed Ratings? Viewing replays? I don't see how a person could make money off just the info in the Form. Everybody sees that data. Very few are willing to make the effort to Learn More.

[Light]

I dont think its enough to just take a break. You might win some off the layoff but soon you'll be back in the same old rut,making the same sucker bets.

What keeps us hooked is that adrenaline rush,its a high. You need to detox. You're actually at a good point now. The darkest hour is just before the dawn. In life,we dont grow from pleasure. We grow mostly from pain. It is the motivator.

If you get serious on a comeback you have to dissect your own handicapping. Do test runs,keep records of how certain angles you like do.What I thought was a good angle was not totally true. I was following alot of myths. They are still repeated on this board over and over again. Turns out certain angles I liked depended on certain other factors being present or absent. That turned a losing ROI angle into a winning one. That's what research will uncover.And if you cant find something that works,either quit or dont play with any expectations and you wont be dissapointed.

[Imriledup]

Well after 25yrs of handicapping and using 10 diffrent programs and studying
the form i have had enough. I was a loser then and still am. I dont want
to sound like sour grapes but i dont think many handicappers can honestly
say they are ahead in this game. For a owner and trainer to make a living in
this game they have to stay ahead of the public. You never know when they are trying to win a race. I see a horse that could beat a field it is in but the
trainer doesn't go for it today but will wait for another race down the road.You never know when they are trying to win or out for a conditioning
race. When you start to guess thats when you loose. I think i will find another
hobby.

First of all, your mindset needs to change. To believe that no one can beat the races because YOU can't beat the races reeks of ego. You need to admit that there are players out there who are just better than you. Admitting it is the first step. Second, you need to stop thinking that trainers are pulling shenanigans and that's why you are losing. Third, the fact that you have been in this game 25 years means squat. Being a pro player is not like working for a company for 25 years and getting that gold watch upon retirement. Its what have you done for me yesterday. You have to prove your meddle on an everyday basis, handicapping horses doesn't let people sit on their laurels.

The only thing you need to think about is that right now you aren't as good as your competition and you need to figure out why. If you believe you are not good at sniffing out trainer intent, you need to work on that part of your game and stop making excuses.

[Steve 'StatMan']

I too noticed the 'they decided not to try' comment. I'm wondering about your pespective on handicapping and the game when you are feeling that losses are because 'they aren't trying' today. Some races, they horse is out there and they are trying to figure out what they have or hoping something will be developing, or hoping their form is still holding. But many times, the horse just isn't capable of getting it done that day - at the major tracks at least, I don't think any connections can afford to 'not try' to win a race they can actually win if the horse has the ability to run it's best that day - many times they don't hold form very long, so need to strike while the horse is readly. Perhaps some time off, and reconsideration of 'the game' and what it is that is really going on out there. Sounds like maybe your methods and your reliance on the output of computer programs have been making far bigger expectations for you than the horse's actual chances, and even higher hopes than the connections might realistically have. Stakes races are different from Allowances, different from claimers, different from conditional claimers, different from Maiden Specials, different from Maiden Claimers. Get away for a bit, and if you still want to try the game, look closely at what you think are 'givens' to be sure they are really 'given'. I know when I first tried to bet seriously and gague my game, and lost 5 prime bets in a row, I had to stop and review and see if I actually knew what a trule prime bet really was. Spent a good 2-3 weeks, and the following month, not betting and reviewing my entire game and methods, made me much, much stronger when I came back.

[LottaKash]

I Stakes races are different from Allowances, different from claimers, different from conditional claimers, different from Maiden Specials, different from Maiden Claimers. Get away for a bit, and if you still want to try the game, look closely at what you think are 'givens' to be sure they are really 'given'.

Rebrick, these are good points made by Steve (above)....In keeping with that theme (about different types of races), one size does not fit all, and one must keep that in mind....Perhaps you are trying to handicap all of those categories in much the same way as "all" of the others....Meaning, most of the handicapping variables you use to find the contenders and hopefully the winner, may not be same for all the categories... But, the "order of importance" of these variables, for each classification, may be quite or at least a little bit different from any of the others ....

If you can get your hands on it, a great book that adresses this very issue, was written by Mark Cramer, "The Odds on Your Side"....It deals with the differences between the different categories of races that are carded at any given track....For me it was a "wake-up call", and was the single most infuential book on horse race handicapping, that I have ever read....It nudged me into a whole new way of thinking about horseracing....Highly recommended...:ThmbUp: :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

best,

[rokitman]

Come back. Please.

[Light]

In his book "Commonsense Handicapping",Dick Mitchell opens with a chapter called "Winners and Losers"



A loser wants something for nothing. He wants to win without doing the requisite work. A loser tends to have his ego invested in his selections. If his horse wins,he's a certified genius,and if he loses,he's a low life ignoramus. Hence the need for finding an excuse when he loses. A winner takes a balanced view. He takes responsibility. He understands that there's only one real reason for losing a bet-he bought the wrong ticket. (Most of the time,this losing ticket is a good bad with a bad outcome.) He realizes that losing is part of winning. Most winners are former losers and understand that each losing race offers a handicapping lesson,not a lesson in creative excuse making. A loser wants to forget the agony of defeat. A winner insists upon learning from defeat regardless of the pain and anguish....

Many a handicapper thinks he has 20 years experience when in fact he has one years experience repeated 20 times.

Winners have goals,and plans to get them to their goals. Losers have daydreams about winning the lottery or about a long lost relative dying and leaving them a fortune. Losers believe that winners are "lucky". They believe that external forces are responsible for their destiny. They never realize that each of us creates our own circumstances. We create our own destiny. "As ye sow,so shall ye reap."

Horseracing is a form of spirituality. People laugh at me when I say this. Mitchell understood.

It's an extremely fine art of balancing ego,materialism,detachment and self discipline at the same time. When you die you will not take the pk6 jackpot you won right before your death as happened to Ron Cox. You'll take nothing but the internal struggle you experienced doing it. It doesn't matter if it's horseracing or some other occupation. Everything we do is spiritual and horseracing offers the challenge of self control. A higher level of consciousness.

[KingChas]

It was the night before.....Xmas...errr...Saratoga...oops wrong story!
What a depressing thread. :(

[banacek]

Horseracing is a form of spirituality.

I'm going to use that. When I lose, I'll just explain that it was a tithe.:)

[baldvin]

I odn't know why you pepole playing horses. They run around circle and who knows the winner might be.

Betting sports you win 50 per cent of time! Much easier.

I like to learn this hrorse game however; but it seem so verry hard!

[kenwoodallpromos]

I odn't know why you peole playing horses. They run around circle and who knows the winner might be.

Betting sports you win 50 per cent of time! Much easier.

I like to learn this horse game however; but it seem so verry hard!
I like handicapping for the brain exercise! More fun that solving crossword puzzles!!
Most horses run around a 1 mile track; some run less. Horses cannot run more than 1/2 way around at full speed; All you have to do is figure out which 1 can run the race at the highest average speed that day, and not tire as much as the rest!!
Knowing about the horses and their histories leading to today's race and how they will handle the distance, the trainers' styles and success, and influences on the track will help. Kmowing the horse's actual chances of winning today and wht the final odds may be is important too so your total payoffs for the day beat the money you pay for tickets!

[jonnielu]

Here's how, take note of the 4 lowest ML odds horses, and at 5 MTP see if any are on the board at half of the ML, yes? Then look to see if that horse is warming up extensively or beyond normal or alone. If yes, then bet to win on paper. If no, look to the rest of the field for another that is half its ML - 20-1 goes to 10, or 10-1 goes to 5. Look for that extensive warmup. Yes is a paper bet, no is pass.



Are you on it yet? Because today could have been your first 100% day.

3rd Saratoga #9 Gold Trippi $18.00

jdl

[classhandicapper]

Rebrick,

There is only one reason to handicap and play horses.

You love it.

Even if you become a winning horseplayer, most people could make more money with less effort doing any number of other things. They might even enjoy those things just as much. I love investing too. I have had days in the market that were better than my best years at the track and years that are better than my accumulated lifetime winnings at the track. But I still get a huge thrill out of finding a $10 horse that should have been 2-1 and I still love waiting for the next champion or matchup between great horses.

If you don't feel like that, quit the game.

If your losses are more than you can comfortably afford for entertainment, definitely quit the game.

[ryesteve]

Are you on it yet? Because today could have been your first 100% day.Not by following the advice you quoted, since Gold Trippi was neither among the 4 ML favs, nor going off at half his ML odds.

[miesque]

Rebrick,

There is only one reason to handicap and play horses.

You love it.

Even if you become a winning horseplayer, most people could make more money with less effort doing any number of other things. They might even enjoy those things just as much. I love investing too. I have had days in the market that were better than my best years at the track and years that are better than my accumulated lifetime winnings at the track. But I still get a huge thrill out of finding a $10 horse that should have been 2-1 and I still love waiting for the next champion or matchup between great horses.

If you don't feel like that, quit the game.

If your losses are more than you can comfortably afford for entertainment, definitely quit the game.

That was very nicely stated and I concur. This is also why I personally feel that horseplayers need to pay attention to when then need a slight break and the length and frequency of that break will vary dramitically based on the situation and also the individual. If it ever starts feeling like a grind that means you are probably overdue for a little hiatus and that may just mean take the weekend off, but I think paying attention to those sorts of things both improves your longevity in the game and overall profitability.

[fmolf]

pick a specialty and stick with it....maybe it would be maiden races ...maybe the claiming game....maybe stakes and handicaps....all these horses are trained differently.maybe turf sprints is your thing....maybe dirt marathons.I am only a recreational player have been since sneaking into belmont at age 15 in 1972.I have had winning years and losing years.Back in the 70's racing used to shut down...their was not all this action we have today....maybe you need to just pick a few meets well spaced from each other and concentrate on those.lets say Tampa...then saratoga next....after saratoga then wait till gulfstream build in your own breaks with a well thought out handicapping schedule.

[andymays]

Not too many things in life are as fun and exciting as handicapping races and picking winners and going on a winning streak. :cool:

Making a nice score is one of the best feelings in the world! It is a tremendous rush and a great experience. :)

On the other hand...

There is nothing more miserable and painfull than handicapping races and picking losers and going on a losing streak. :confused:

Getting disqualified from a big score is one of the worst feelings in the world! It is a terrible low and a miserable experience. :bang:


Winning is fun and losing is not but both are the consequences of making a bet and it goes with the territory!

[WinterTriangle]

Everything we do is spiritual and horseracing offers the challenge of self control. A higher level of consciousness.


Bruce Lee would completely agree!!! what enabled him to do the physical stuff he was doing was because he was basically, a philosopher, not a martial arts expert. He made this very clear. He merely applied philosophy to his craft in order to accomplish his goal.

Few people realize how much Lee revolutionized things....and how he was able to accomplish, and excel, mainly because he had attuned himself to 1) his authenic self and 2) the nature of reality as he knew it...he was clear about how goals are accomplished and dreams fulfilled. He was quite disciplined about it. Bruce Lee aligned himself and "became" what he was doing.

Take a break, but go to the track; watch the horses on TV. Learn to physically handicap the horses. Perhpas you can enjoy this. I agree with whoever said you gotta love it. If I had to deal with 5 software programs and just a lot of paper crap, I wouldn't even bother. It would ruin racing for me. I'd be a stockbroker instead. I have ZERO interest in anyone else's picks except to congratulate them after the fact. The *endeavor* of handicapping, and watching the horses, is what keeps me going.

they asked Lee if he was bothered by certain things (injustices toward Asians, etc.) and he said no, then I wouldn't be able to be Bruce Lee. He didn't get bogged down in that stuff. He just moved forward, and very positively.

If you think trainers *know* what a horse is going to do, you're mistaken. :) Spend some time out in a pasture with some horses, and then report back after a month. They are quite moody.

[Space Monkey]

Are u sure Sir Charles used to be a single digit handicap golfer?? No way. He is so god awful now that I can't imagine that he would continue to play if he was that good at one time.

Rebrick take some time. You got a lot of good advice from some very nice people here. Hope you come back. I know that this game became a lot more fun for me when I woke up one day and realized that betting with my disposable income instead of my "needed" income was the way to go. There's enough pressure in life, you don't need it here.

[jonnielu]

Not by following the advice you quoted, since Gold Trippi was neither among the 4 ML favs, nor going off at half his ML odds.

Okay, I'll play, but only for you Steve. Which horses were half of their ML?

jdl

[Marlin]

With the time you have been pouring over stats and pp's.....go to the gym and workout every day....slowly at first to avoid injury. By Labor day you will feel a lot better. Go to the Breeder's Cup simulcast treating it merely like entertainment. If you keep up the exercise....by Thanksgiving there will be a new you. Your attitude will improve and your family will appreciate that you will live a longer healthier life.This might be the best advice ever given. After 25 years you are probably............you! Don't change your angle. Don't change your program again. Feel good about you and YOU will probably do better.
For ME discipline seems to work. However I do not pretend to have the patience to practice it. But I know that. I can't play poker, unless it's Omaha High/Low! I have to play every hand. I know my card is coming! LOL:) I have learned, in horse racing, how to play every hand. Horizontal wagers for me. Pick 3s, 4s, and 5s. Then I hammer the horse I love. I can't do it for a living, and I probably am a long run loser. However I like ME and have fun playing the horses. As a few others mentioned, If it's not fun don't do it. It's not a job. (for most of us)

[ryesteve]

Okay, I'll play, but only for you Steve. Which horses were half of their ML?Who cares? You're playing the "I told you so" game with a horse that didn't come close to satisfying your objective criteria, and you're redboarding the subjective criteria.

And you wondered in another thread why you have no credibility?

[njcurveball]

Are you on it yet? Because today could have been your first 100% day.

3rd Saratoga #9 Gold Trippi $18.00

jdl

In this race, the top 4 ML horses were

1.) Riley Tucker 2-1
2.) Bold Start 4-1
3.) Silver Edition 5-1
4.) Pyro 6-1

If you want to say ANY horse who is half their ML with 5 minutes to post, you certainly can put the winner in there. However, your other rules make it impossible to test the theory, so you could potentially say every winner qualified and every loser did not.

Although this was clearly your advice

Here's how, take note of the 4 lowest ML odds horses,

Mix and match enough things and discount all those that don't fit and you may be up for a 46 award on here. :rolleyes:

[Light]

There are alot of people on this board who have also been losing for 25 years like Rebrick. The difference is they are fine with that. It is a form of entertainment for them. But when someone starts to get frustrated from losing ,then its no longer entertainment or fun. They are taking it more seriously.

That person has reached a crossroads. Do you continue playing like a gambler, or just quit, or finally begin to realize what it takes to beat this game. If you want to just play the role of a typical gambler,then you will have to wait for re birth to beat this game. If you want to try to beat the game,then you face the daunting task of turning a game that was formerly a form of pleasure into a form of that includes pain. This will force most people to quit at this point. That's why,past this point,I say this game turns disciplined and spiritual in order to survive this next level. Very few will make it from here.

It's alot more comfortable to stay down there at level one where its all kicks and giggles. But once you get that inner calling to step it up,you can't deny it,only delay it.

[Imriledup]

There are alot of people on this board who have also been losing for 25 years like Rebrick. The difference is they are fine with that. It is a form of entertainment for them. But when someone starts to get frustrated from losing ,then its no longer entertainment or fun. They are taking it more seriously.

That person has reached a crossroads. Do you continue playing like a gambler, or just quit, or finally begin to realize what it takes to beat this game. If you want to just play the role of a typical gambler,then you will have to wait for re birth to beat this game. If you want to try to beat the game,then you face the daunting task of turning a game that was formerly a form of pleasure into a form of that includes pain. This will force most people to quit at this point. That's why,past this point,I say this game turns disciplined and spiritual in order to survive this next level. Very few will make it from here.


It's alot more comfortable to stay down there at level one where its all kicks and giggles. But once you get that inner calling to step it up,you can't deny it,only delay it.


Good post.

[Track Collector]

Well after 25yrs of handicapping and using 10 diffrent programs and studying
the form i have had enough. I was a loser then and still am. I dont want
to sound like sour grapes but i dont think many handicappers can honestly
say they are ahead in this game. For a owner and trainer to make a living in
this game they have to stay ahead of the public. You never know when they are trying to win a race. I see a horse that could beat a field it is in but the
trainer doesn't go for it today but will wait for another race down the road.You never know when they are trying to win or out for a conditioning
race. When you start to guess thats when you loose. I think i will find another
hobby.

Rebrick99,

Before reading the following response, please consider that the comments below may be a bit harsh, but are written with good intentions and without the purpose of personal attack.

From reading your post, I would guess the following:

(a) You are looking for a "black box" program, or one that automatically points to the selection(s) you should make. Reality would dictate that even if one existed, it could not be offered commercially and remain profitable.

(b) You do not keep extensive records. Keeping records and studying them would make you much more profitable than you are today. They identify which tracks, factors (such as dirt/turf, distance, class, etc.), and wager types (win, exacta, trifecta, etc.) you are currently profitable at and should CONTINUE to play, and, those that you are poor at and should continue studying, but STOP playing immediately. Please note that recordkeeping is not a guarantee to profitability, but will certainly provide one with a vehicle to better results than without them. I agree completely with someone who postulated that it is virtually impossible to be a long-term winner without good recordkeeping.

(c) You feel that racing is unbeatable due to numerous factors that are beyond our control. Many winners are impacted by these same unknowns as well. They have found a way to win in spite of them, and it does not involve special and/or inside knowledge with those who run this game. While taking on a winning attitude is no guarantee of success, lack of a winning attitude IS A GUARANTEE of losing. The human mind is a powerful tool, and it will do its' best to help you achieve whatever outcome you believe is possible, regardless of whether it is positive or negative. The belief of success ALWAYS comes before the actual achievement of success.

(d) You do not accept personal responsibility for your lack of success. This is not an uncommon trait of those who are not successful. Denial of personal responsibility is another sure-fire way to guarantee failure. On the other hand, accepting personal responsibility will allow you to see that it is YOU who has the ability to work harder and make changes which could lead to the desired "successful" outcome.

Hopefully you can come back at a future time and give us a success story!

Track Collector

[DJofSD]

Are u sure Sir Charles used to be a single digit handicap golfer?? No way. He is so god awful now that I can't imagine that he would continue to play if he was that good at one time.

Rebrick take some time. You got a lot of good advice from some very nice people here. Hope you come back. I know that this game became a lot more fun for me when I woke up one day and realized that betting with my disposable income instead of my "needed" income was the way to go. There's enough pressure in life, you don't need it here.
Well, I have no way to prove it. What I heard was stated by a third party during the episode aired early this week. Perhaps if there's a repeat broadcast it can be verified. And, yes, his swing is godaweful. I can understand why everyone would doubt my statement.

[Partsnut]

One thing about this game, mentally exhausted handicapping isn't going to win. Best you take a break. If you miss it, come back, if not, you saved your cash. One suggestion for you is to stop looking at the last 25 years. You cannot recoup all of that cash in one day anyway.

If you decide to return, play each day slowly, betting about 2% of your bankroll maximum on any race. Log the results and make adjustments.

Most would laugh if I told them to bet $100,000 to show a $1,000 profit for the year. Most would want $200,000 or more from that. That is why MOST lose.

njcurveball has given some very realistic and some sound advice. The Honesty of the afformentioned statements are very much appreciated and something should that in my opinion should be well taken.

Taking a breather is a good idea. Get your act together.
During this break, I would suggest reading and studying Steve Fiero's " Four Quarters Of Horse Investing". This book is a very honest and realistic book on how to approach and beat the game. As far as I'm concerned, this is one of the best books ever written on the subject.
I believe this book will teach you the things needed to be reasonably successful at the game and give you some realistic expectancies.

[fmolf]

just like horses we handicappers need a freshening!Give yourself a one month freshening...come back strong in a few conditioning races..then third start back go for the big score....
ok...here it is in lay terms...go on a nice vacation with your wife or a loved one.....come back home and watch the races for a couple of days......if you still have a desire to handicap dig right in,and start playing selectively.....I truly believe most losing players bet too many races.try a lighter approach maybe.the amt of money i lost on my losing days got less and the amount of money i won on winning days stayed somewhat constant when i started being a bit more selective on my prime bets.I still make a small $2 or $4 exacta play on every race when at the track....gotta have action! :lol:

[jonnielu]

In this race, the top 4 ML horses were

1.) Riley Tucker 2-1
2.) Bold Start 4-1
3.) Silver Edition 5-1
4.) Pyro 6-1

If you want to say ANY horse who is half their ML with 5 minutes to post, you certainly can put the winner in there. However, your other rules make it impossible to test the theory, so you could potentially say every winner qualified and every loser did not.

Although this was clearly your advice

Here's how, take note of the 4 lowest ML odds horses,

Mix and match enough things and discount all those that don't fit and you may be up for a 46 award on here. :rolleyes:

Why doesn't anybody read beyond the first sentence?

@ #Saratoga (http://twitter.com/search?q=%23Saratoga) WED 7/29 - 3rd R - Warmup * = #9 Gold Trippi Wins $18.00 Paddock * = #4 Pyro is 2nd - The Physical Ex =$90 about 21 hours ago (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2914116181) from web


@ #Saratoga (http://twitter.com/search?q=%23Saratoga) WED 7/29 - 3rd Race - Paddock Star = #4 Warmup Star = #9 about 21 hours ago (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2913870177) from web

Which ones were half their ML at 5 MTP?

jdl

[Bettowin]

Someone needs to show him it can be done. I am too busy so someone else please start a thread with a mythical $100 bankroll and show him that through patience and betting within a bankroll you can make a profit.

[fmolf]

Someone needs to show him it can be done. I am too busy so someone else please start a thread with a mythical $100 bankroll and show him that through patience and betting within a bankroll you can make a profit.
jonnie will square him up!

[Rpunchbuggy]

[QUOTE=Handiman] There is a free software that Doug Wood created that is helping several players turn their game around. You might want to try it and be very selective with the races you play. You might be surprised how you do and the fun might return.

Where would I find the free handicapping software from Dave Wood?

[TommyCh]

Almost everyone is missing some of Rebrick's most salient points, all based on the human element of the game. Politicians and the betting lords approve massive takeouts. Horse medication is so out of control that who knows how a horse is going to feel on raceday? And absolutely NOONE in the game is showing the leadership to speak up and demand a stop to the use of drugs. Trainers and jockeys do run races as glorified workouts. Some jockeys are so incompetent, you wonder how they survive. Some border on fraudulent. Racing stewards are a joke by not demanding that jockeys give their best effort in every race, and most stewards have very little gumption in taking horses down. America is sorely lacking in this regard. Wagering technology is so far behind that there can be legitimate doubt about the integrity of the tote. Artificial surfaces are a cruel joke installed as a knee-jerk reaction in the interest of public relations and for the economic benefit of the people who market them. Look at Del Mar already this meet. Even the Kentucky Derby is a joke with too many horses and too many horses who have no business being in that race, such as those trainers and owners who know full well theirs is suited only for the turf or a shorter distance. These are some of the things horseplayers really have to put in the backs of their minds, but you can't get away from them. I still play this tremendous game, but I've changed it up a lot. Such as never playing the Derby again and limiting my wagering to stakes and graded stakes races where there is more on the line for all involved, leading to the notion that there is more to gain and more to lose in such races, forcing better behavior. You can't blame Rebrick for feeling put upon by these totally fixable forces.

[fmolf]

Almost everyone is missing some of Rebrick's most salient points, all based on the human element of the game. Politicians and the betting lords approve massive takeouts. Horse medication is so out of control that who knows how a horse is going to feel on raceday? And absolutely NOONE in the game is showing the leadership to speak up and demand a stop to the use of drugs. Trainers and jockeys do run races as glorified workouts. Some jockeys are so incompetent, you wonder how they survive. Some border on fraudulent. Racing stewards are a joke by not demanding that jockeys give their best effort in every race, and most stewards have very little gumption in taking horses down. America is sorely lacking in this regard. Wagering technology is so far behind that there can be legitimate doubt about the integrity of the tote. Artificial surfaces are a cruel joke installed as a knee-jerk reaction in the interest of public relations and for the economic benefit of the people who market them. Look at Del Mar already this meet. Even the Kentucky Derby is a joke with too many horses and too many horses who have no business being in that race, such as those trainers and owners who know full well theirs is suited only for the turf or a shorter distance. These are some of the things horseplayers really have to put in the backs of their minds, but you can't get away from them. I still play this tremendous game, but I've changed it up a lot. Such as never playing the Derby again and limiting my wagering to stakes and graded stakes races where there is more on the line for all involved, leading to the notion that there is more to gain and more to lose in such races, forcing better behavior. You can't blame Rebrick for feeling put upon by these totally fixable forces.
weve all felt frustrated at times.I understand rebricks points.All he is looking for is a little consistency and we all would like it as well.How much better the game would be if we could look at a horses pp's and not wonder was he doped for that big win two back that seemed a complete form reversal!If the illegal drugs could be removed from the game it would be easier in my opinion to ascertain trainer intentions than it is now.

[andymays]

When you're in a bad slump go back to basics. Bet win and place for a while till the mojo comes back!

[Bison]

Some jockeys are so incompetent, you wonder how they survive. Some border on fraudulent.

I totally agree. In most races it appears the majority of jocks are not trying for the win. It's a joke. They should be hauled in and questioned after these garbage rides.

[Imriledup]

Almost everyone is missing some of Rebrick's most salient points, all based on the human element of the game. Politicians and the betting lords approve massive takeouts. Horse medication is so out of control that who knows how a horse is going to feel on raceday? And absolutely NOONE in the game is showing the leadership to speak up and demand a stop to the use of drugs. Trainers and jockeys do run races as glorified workouts. Some jockeys are so incompetent, you wonder how they survive. Some border on fraudulent. Racing stewards are a joke by not demanding that jockeys give their best effort in every race, and most stewards have very little gumption in taking horses down. America is sorely lacking in this regard. Wagering technology is so far behind that there can be legitimate doubt about the integrity of the tote. Artificial surfaces are a cruel joke installed as a knee-jerk reaction in the interest of public relations and for the economic benefit of the people who market them. Look at Del Mar already this meet. Even the Kentucky Derby is a joke with too many horses and too many horses who have no business being in that race, such as those trainers and owners who know full well theirs is suited only for the turf or a shorter distance. These are some of the things horseplayers really have to put in the backs of their minds, but you can't get away from them. I still play this tremendous game, but I've changed it up a lot. Such as never playing the Derby again and limiting my wagering to stakes and graded stakes races where there is more on the line for all involved, leading to the notion that there is more to gain and more to lose in such races, forcing better behavior. You can't blame Rebrick for feeling put upon by these totally fixable forces.

Excellent post. Do you feel that if everything was fixed, the original poster would become a winning player? I guess if the takeouts were slashed in half, that would make all the break-even players winners, but i'm not sure the other stuff would make a losing player into a winning one.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Excellent post. Do you feel that if everything was fixed, the original poster would become a winning player? I guess if the takeouts were slashed in half, that would make all the break-even players winners, but i'm not sure the other stuff would make a losing player into a winning one.
If all was well with racing, honest charts and PP's, workots, jockeys, officials, trainers, easier to 'cap, all else perfect, lower takeout, and winners get back all but a small amount, ther would still be mostly losers because winning 'cappers would bet many more races. So, since we do not play against the house but against others, the other players have to deal with the same issues.
I have invented 5 different totally different systems that have produced +ROI at least for awhile but under certain races and situations. Between 10-25% return. But I do not bet many races every week; sometimes I bet for awhile then take a vacation and just observe to find trends and angles that will work at least for awhile then take advantage.
The truest statements in Thoroughbred betting are that you can win a race but not all races; And that the 2 biggest things that change are the horses' names and race conditions and biases.
Find out what works today, this week, this meet. Do not worry about anyone who bets every race every track every day on computer- there are enough of the opposing players who bet wrong to give you the edge you need. (My top 2 was not working SUnday, worked today!; Calder only worked late in the day, One race today on turf the 3 co-favorites were 4-1, one of my longshots came in and paid $46.+!
Bet with the crowd when the crowd is right, bet against the crowd when the crowd is wrong!!

[TommyCh]

Imriledup (member.php?u=4492),
Not sure if I can say Rebrick would become a winner if these things are "fixed." But we would be reasonably assured the horse is "au natural" and the jockey is trying. Like Snidely Whiplash lurking about, Jeff Mullins had to feel strongly that he was going to get away with it at Aqueduct, which lets you know you can probably get away with it at Aqueduct. Racing officials have to know it affects handle. There is an individual jockey at my home track, Arlington, whom I will not bet, nor the races he's in. And I don't bet the Arlington Polytrack, just the turf. And, if you watched the show Jockeys, you saw the stewards lay out a convincing case against Joe Talamo in more than one race and then not have the guts to sit him down. He should have been sat down, and it would have been a valuable lesson for the young rider—but only if enforcement were consistent throughout the game. I would really love to find out from truly veteran handicappers—those who have played for at least a couple of decades—if they find themselves playing significantly fewer races because of these factors.

[harcapper]

Well after 25yrs of handicapping and using 10 diffrent programs and studying
the form i have had enough. I was a loser then and still am. I dont want
to sound like sour grapes but i dont think many handicappers can honestly
say they are ahead in this game. For a owner and trainer to make a living in
this game they have to stay ahead of the public. You never know when they are trying to win a race. I see a horse that could beat a field it is in but the
trainer doesn't go for it today but will wait for another race down the road.You never know when they are trying to win or out for a conditioning
race. When you start to guess thats when you loose. I think i will find another
hobby.

rebrick,

I am a standardbred capper and have been so for some 40yrs. You actually touched on the reason that you have struggled to turn a profit playing horses. In my humble opinion a serious handicapper needs to learn to identify when a trainer has found either the right time or spot for his horse. How you do that in the t-bred world is a mystery to me so will refrain from trying to elaborate.

A handicapper who learns to think like a trainer has a shot to turn a profit. Without that thought process you have no shot to do anything other then lose the takeout.

Just giving you my two cents.

Har