Bubbles
05-13-2003, 09:08 PM
Hey all...
Was right about every horse but Brancusi in the Derby. Let's see if I can improve on that in the run for the Black-Eyed Susans.
Keep in mind that these are the early PPs. If a contender emerges, I'll change 'em. Here goes...
CHAMPALI-Reminds me a lot of Harlan's Holiday from a few years ago. Not incredible, but he'll win his share. In my opinion, he can beat a lot of horses, but he just isn't in the upper echelon. May contend in the early pace though.
CHEROKEE'S BOY-His Tesio win was impressive. However, he had the benefit of moderate early fractions and the ability to get loose on the lead. He won't have that luxury here, as I expect a sizzling pace; still like him in exotics though, as he's never run a really bad race.
DURING-He bounced BIG TIME in the Bay Shore last out. It may have been because he was unfamiliar with the track, but most of it was because Baffert took the blinkers off. But, blinkers or not, I think he'll stop after a mile. He's never run a race beyond 1 and 1/16, and he tired then too; lots of other speed in here makes this one hard to pull for.
FOUFA'S WARRIOR-This race sets up for a closer. Unfortunately, there are no closers that are real good. This one has never finished off the board, but his times are SOOOOOOOO BAD compared to 'Cide and PR; elsewhere.
FUNNY CIDE-The undisputed winner of the Derby appears to be the class of this field. His work at Belmont interests me, and he ran an absolutely brilliant race in KY. He's also one of the few horses in this field that can lift a hoof on a wet track; the best shot at a Triple Crown I've seen in years (NY REPRESENTIN!!!!!!!).
KISSIN SAINT-Incredibly consistent. Rebounded from a rough start to finish a decent third in the Wood. A versatile horse, he can go for the lead or run from the middle of the pack, and this may help him on Saturday; would not be a shock to see him hit the board on either a fast or off track.
MIDWAY ROAD-Good-Won by a dozen last out. Bad-Never gone farther that 1 1/16 and there is TONS of speed in here; too iffy to bet heavy, but may be able to do something on an off-track, as his works aren't that bad.
New York Hero-His past performances don't show hat he's capable of. He has worked splendidly at Aqueduct (VOMIT!) and his Withers and Wood were not bad at all; not likely, but if he runs back to his effort at Turfway, he wouldn't be an upset.
PEACE RULES-Always game. Stayed on after a solid pace in the Derby to finish a very good third and reeled off four straight before that one. This horse completes my exacta on a fast track, but his one off-track race was mediocre at best; won't touch him there.
SCRIMSHAW-The auxilary gate killed him at Churchill. And really, when does it not kill a horse's chances? I haven't totally given up on this one yet, and Lukas sent him here for a reason; kinda interesting.
SENOR SWINGER-The word "overrated" comes to mind. Every time Baffert has a three year old running in a big race, we all think he's the next Point Given. Nope, not even close. His turf race was impressive, but this ain't grass; elsewhere.
TEN CENTS A SHINE-I've seen better moves in the Derby, but his wasn't bad. He had a ten-wide trip and was still gaining when he hit the wire. There's a rule of thumb that states that closers rarely win at Pimlico. And, while this one is not incredible, he would not be an incredible bomb if he pulled it off.
DA PICKS
Fast
1) FUNNY CIDE
2) PEACE RULES
3) NEW YORK HERO
4) CHEROKEE'S BOY
5) KISSIN SAINT
Off
1) FUNNY CIDE
2) KISSIN SAINT
3) NEW YORK HERO
4) MIDWAY ROAD
5) CHEROKEE'S BOY
Was right about every horse but Brancusi in the Derby. Let's see if I can improve on that in the run for the Black-Eyed Susans.
Keep in mind that these are the early PPs. If a contender emerges, I'll change 'em. Here goes...
CHAMPALI-Reminds me a lot of Harlan's Holiday from a few years ago. Not incredible, but he'll win his share. In my opinion, he can beat a lot of horses, but he just isn't in the upper echelon. May contend in the early pace though.
CHEROKEE'S BOY-His Tesio win was impressive. However, he had the benefit of moderate early fractions and the ability to get loose on the lead. He won't have that luxury here, as I expect a sizzling pace; still like him in exotics though, as he's never run a really bad race.
DURING-He bounced BIG TIME in the Bay Shore last out. It may have been because he was unfamiliar with the track, but most of it was because Baffert took the blinkers off. But, blinkers or not, I think he'll stop after a mile. He's never run a race beyond 1 and 1/16, and he tired then too; lots of other speed in here makes this one hard to pull for.
FOUFA'S WARRIOR-This race sets up for a closer. Unfortunately, there are no closers that are real good. This one has never finished off the board, but his times are SOOOOOOOO BAD compared to 'Cide and PR; elsewhere.
FUNNY CIDE-The undisputed winner of the Derby appears to be the class of this field. His work at Belmont interests me, and he ran an absolutely brilliant race in KY. He's also one of the few horses in this field that can lift a hoof on a wet track; the best shot at a Triple Crown I've seen in years (NY REPRESENTIN!!!!!!!).
KISSIN SAINT-Incredibly consistent. Rebounded from a rough start to finish a decent third in the Wood. A versatile horse, he can go for the lead or run from the middle of the pack, and this may help him on Saturday; would not be a shock to see him hit the board on either a fast or off track.
MIDWAY ROAD-Good-Won by a dozen last out. Bad-Never gone farther that 1 1/16 and there is TONS of speed in here; too iffy to bet heavy, but may be able to do something on an off-track, as his works aren't that bad.
New York Hero-His past performances don't show hat he's capable of. He has worked splendidly at Aqueduct (VOMIT!) and his Withers and Wood were not bad at all; not likely, but if he runs back to his effort at Turfway, he wouldn't be an upset.
PEACE RULES-Always game. Stayed on after a solid pace in the Derby to finish a very good third and reeled off four straight before that one. This horse completes my exacta on a fast track, but his one off-track race was mediocre at best; won't touch him there.
SCRIMSHAW-The auxilary gate killed him at Churchill. And really, when does it not kill a horse's chances? I haven't totally given up on this one yet, and Lukas sent him here for a reason; kinda interesting.
SENOR SWINGER-The word "overrated" comes to mind. Every time Baffert has a three year old running in a big race, we all think he's the next Point Given. Nope, not even close. His turf race was impressive, but this ain't grass; elsewhere.
TEN CENTS A SHINE-I've seen better moves in the Derby, but his wasn't bad. He had a ten-wide trip and was still gaining when he hit the wire. There's a rule of thumb that states that closers rarely win at Pimlico. And, while this one is not incredible, he would not be an incredible bomb if he pulled it off.
DA PICKS
Fast
1) FUNNY CIDE
2) PEACE RULES
3) NEW YORK HERO
4) CHEROKEE'S BOY
5) KISSIN SAINT
Off
1) FUNNY CIDE
2) KISSIN SAINT
3) NEW YORK HERO
4) MIDWAY ROAD
5) CHEROKEE'S BOY