Who's got the best Speed rating ???

[John]

Drf.
Bris.
TSN
Beyer.
Track program.[ the big book ]
Paid services.

From the above who has the most accurate Speed rating,In your opinion. I need to work with one, for a research project....Thanks

[formula_2002]

Bris speed rating wins inaccordance with the final odds.

no edge, but accurate.
Joe M

[John]

Thanks Joe,

It is Accuracy I need.......................... 1 point for BRIS

[John]

formula_2002...

Joe, is there a difference between Bris abd TSN.If you know.

[GR1@HTR]

Read the 2nd to last page of this 28 page .pdf file:

http://www.thesheets.com/presskit.html

[John]

GR1


thanks for the read. I guessRagozin sheets are the best. At $45.00 a day the sheets have held up over time. I did read somewhere the sheets do better on the West Coast than the East Coast

[sq764]

Can you justify $45.00 a day?

What makes a product with $45??

I may be biased a bit, since I think $5 for the DRF is a joke.

[andicap]

Best speed figs for the money....

Colts Neck. Used to be $100/month unlimited.

Downside...clunky old DOS application.
Upside...also provides pace figs and a nice "sheets like" graph that goes back 13 races.
Ignore his odds lines.

I never did understand the math he uses -- algebra -- to get his numbers, but many pros swear by Mike's figures. And he bets his own sheet too.

I don't have the phone number handy, but its around somewhere if you're interested.

[takeout]

Originally posted by sq764
I may be biased a bit, since I think $5 for the DRF is a joke.
Me too.

[GR1@HTR]

Keep in mind the sport stat study was done on only 1000 or so races for the major circuts (maybe just so cal only). Also the study was done a long time ago. I haven't seen stats on beyer (except for what is listed in the article), but I would conclude that except for ITS and equibase, the differences are minimal on the dirt. I had posted a while back that the best speed fig for the turf is the quirin speed fig Ken Massa produces...On the data I tested, if you took the last fig (if it was a turf fig) and played all of them, they actually showed a small profit. I would doubt it would hold up over the long term, but yet still impressive.

[Derek2U]

In total honesty I think the Beyers are great. But I've never seen
BRIS or TSN #s & so I can not compare. But, because i want to
put my thinking here, I gotta say that Beyers are V predictive.
** if any one here wants to hear more E me. derek

[Dave Schwartz]

Andicap,

As for Colt's Neck, one of users believes in it so strongly that he had us build an interface to the files. Kind of slick, actually, with the graphs and all.

Anyway, he swears by them.

Dave

[Derek2U]

Cant any 1 of U here define speed in a more clever way and then
DefinE + Measure it thusly. Im so bored w/ that Quirin guy's
ideas they DO NOT work ... I'm goading U all on here cause the
answer is quite EZ but many of U will Never accept it.. hehe

[hurrikane]

my girl friend. :cool:

[Shacopate]

I think making your own figures is the best way to get ahead of the game. Especially if you concentrate on one circuit. You'll be amazed how much you will learn about those tracks in the process. By developing class pars you will discover valuable nuances that can lead to big scores. Knowing how your tracks claiming levels compare to the allowance conditions is crucial for the daily player.

By learning how weather changes affect the track, you can get good value on horses that ran well against the bias.

Concentrating on one circuit also can keep you in tune with trainer patterns and idiosyncrasies. By learning which trainers like to work fast or slow, you will know what a good workout is.

Most people don't have the time to make their own figs.

When I don't, I use a combination of the DRF and BRIS. I like the pace figures provided by BRIS, especially the late speed number in turf and G1's on dirt. I prefer the Beyer figure when looking at a horses overall speed.

[formula_2002]

In almost 20,000 races, the top bris speed figure produced a dollar loss of 13% and average odds of 3.90-1.


Can anyone post some comparable speed figure data such as beyers, "the sheets" drf etc.?

As I recall, my database of Colts Neck Data may be in and around those results.

Joe M

[tcat]

Whoa! What about the Cramer ratings? His have been some of the strongest for years and has offered challanges to anyone to beat them.

Most of the researchers I know readily admit that speed ratings as a handicapping tool can very unrealiable. Afterall, horses race against each other, not clocks. Horses and many jockeys are not able to tell time very well.

I remember a researcher many years ago saying, time was the result of a race, not the cause of the race.

[cj]

Originally posted by tcat
...
I remember a researcher many years ago saying, time was the result of a race, not the cause of the race.

Maybe so, but that time, along with the internal fractions, can tell us tons about a horses ability.

CJ

[lefthandlow]

The Rag Sheets are probably the best but again its up to the user
to pick the correct Play from the numbers.One story about Len F
that happened about 10+years ago when Foxboro Raceway was open and they had simulcasting.I saw 2 guys in a private room
and felt a bit slighted so I asked why they got the VIP treatment.
Well my freind who worked there knew them as the NY Rag creatorsThey were betting 45,000+ a day everyday mostly on the NY card and some Cal.I asked how they did for the summer and he said they had one losing day out fo 50.They flew in very week and played there cuz they wanted to bet in private.They moved to Belmont NH dog track after that to get the REBATES offered there.So those figs WIN but they may just be good.So when people say the Rags are good at least you know that the guy who makes them uses them to win.I'd like to see if the other guys win with theirs.. LL

[Whirlaway]

Best last race Cramer Speed Figure:

Win%: 26.3%
Average Odds: 2.23-1
ROI: -14.88%

Based on about 13,000 races. Ties occur roughly once every 13 races.

[formula_2002]

Whirlaway

thanks.. now that is information.

The bris speed data i posted was aslo for the best speed/last race.

Joe M

[Lefty]

What's best mean? Best of last, last 2, last 3, etc. I'd still bet DRF+SR be hard to beat under any of the conditions.
I don't use a form anymore so prgms i'm using either have the Cramer no. or the TSN speed no. Anyway, prob. best for cntrs and not final judgements.

[so.cal.fan]

I agree with Shacapate on sticking to one circuit.
At least for those of us who do all our work, without a computer program.
Beyer numbers are good here in So. Cal. If you do what Shacopate suggests, you can see where the Beyers are on or off.
I may be wrong....but I think the "sheets" are only $30 a day here?

[formula_2002]

Lefty

There is one thing that beats ALL speed figures....the track take-out.


If only it weren't so.


Joe M

[Foolish Pleasure]

The Sheets are the biggest joke in all of horse racing.

First he managed to find a 1000 race subset from what, ten years ago to prove what exactly?

Second the guy just won his first major handicapping contest in close to a decade, he won with a lone F bomber, then proceeded to explain how he won, without mentioning pace or trip.

See as long as the guy maintains pace/trip are not relevant and they charge $30.00 a card, they are the biggest hucksters on the entire racing landscape.

It's been statistically proven they are garbage, and how they maintain their mystique from 25 years ago when few had speed numbers is a riot.

[gonatas]

Its hard to compare all the figure options against the value each may offer, because the most popular and readily available ones are going to effect the price more. The ones used by the biggest bettors are also going to effect the price.

I was impressed by how the recent DRF book on the Beyers spent a lot of time recommending how to bet AGAINST the Beyers. Like anything else, understanding how to interpret the figures is the only way you are going to be able to profit by them.

Personally, I think the Beyers are a great shorthand when you have a lot of races to look over in the age of simulcasting. But I don't think I would ever make a horse a bet based on high Beyers alone.

The Sheets worry me a little bit. Expensive, yes; but they also seem to be followed by many with a quasi-religious faith. I think their main advantage is that they have their followers thinking in ways and seeing patterns that typical Form players might be missing. If everybody used The Sheets they would be worthless.

No matter how good the information gets, favorites are still winning at about the same percentage they always have.

[so.cal.fan]

gonatas does have a good point:

"No matter how good the information gets, favorites are still winning at about the same percentage they always have".

[Fastracehorse]

quote:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Originally posted by sq764
I may be biased a bit, since I think $5 for the DRF is a joke.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Me too.

You 2 are tough.

I luv the form.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<you will discover valuable nuances that can lead to big scores.

I do make my own speed figs - well sort of, I actually improve the Beyer's applicability.

Please exapnd on you above statement.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

Any quality speed figure would do better than a commercial brand.

I know mine does.

fffastt

[Fastracehorse]

<Whoa! What about the Cramer ratings? His have been some of the strongest for years and has offered challanges to anyone to beat them.

Most of the researchers I know readily admit that speed ratings as a handicapping tool can very unrealiable. Afterall, horses race against each other, not clocks. Horses and many jockeys are not able to tell time very well.


I'd luv to challenge Cramer - where do I do this??

Further, speed figs on their own aren't as powerful as when you h a n d i c a p.

:cool:

fffastt

[Lefty]

Formula, track take beats a lot of things but I didn't think we were talking profit but comparing diff speed figs against one another. And I say, figs like SR+var, Bris or TSN figs prob as good as any expensive ones.
A few yrs ago Sportstat pub. it's analysis and SR+Var beat em all.
But I don't think you can use such a simplistic approach to make profits and never said so.

[Fastracehorse]

<But I don't think you can use such a simplistic approach to make profits

This is so true.

fffastt

[Jaguar]

Jim Cramer makes the best Speed Figures I've seen in 23 years of grinding away at this game.

In fact, I'm a 14 year- or so- customer of BRIS and I'm amazed that they haven't come up with something better than the Beyer numbers.

All the best,

Jaguar

[cj]

Last time I checked, BRIS does not use Beyer numbers!

CJ

[Speed Figure]

Last time i checked, The bris number's were looking a lot like the beyer's!

[cj]

Originally posted by speed figure
Last time i checked, The bris number's were looking a lot like the beyer's!

How so?

CJ

[Tom]

[QUOTE]Originally posted by Foolish Pleasure-MW
[B]The Sheets are the biggest joke in all of horse racing.
***
Not everyone is laughing. A lot of successful handicappers use them and win with them
***
It's been statistically proven they are garbage, and how they maintain their mystique from 25 years ago when few had speed numbers is a riot.
***
Who? How? When? I don't think so. Their enduring mystique might have to do with the success people are having with them.
Just because YOU can't figure them out dosen't mean they are garbage. How many people are lining up to pay you for YOUR opinion?

[Tom]

Originally posted by cjmilkowski
How so? (BRIS numbers looking a lot like Beyer numbers)

CJ

1. Mostly 2-digit, some 3-digit numbers
2. Bold fonts
3. Location in the PPs
Yep, sure do look like Beyers! :rolleyes:

[Fastracehorse]

Popularity doesn't prove anything about the rags.

People like to mythologize - it's in human nature - heard of the Greeks??

The standard race track program is by far the most popular tool and how successful can people be with that??

And saying that alot of people make money with them?? Who are these lots of people Tom??

Maybe the rags are good but there are still lots of price horses escaping the betting public - so, there are other methods too - not that you said there wasn't.



:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

fffastt

[gonatas]

One thing you can say for The Sheets is that a number of horsemen use them. Frankel for one talks The Sheets when he is interviewed but is paid to endorse The Form.

Of course trainers our not always the best handicappers.

[Fastracehorse]

<Of course trainers our not always the best handicappers.

This much is true - I really believe that handicappers are the best handicappers. And, if a player doesn't believe that he probably is an average player at best.

Afterall, would you like a handicapper to train your horse??

Further, other trainers like Mike Mitchell in S. Cal. like clockers' sheets for claiming.

Almost every professional handicapper has a speed fig, I'm sure the rags are just speed figs with some elements of handicapping.

fffastt

[formula_2002]

while trainers may find the "sheet" a very good indicator of a horse's ability, so then does the racing public, eliminating any possible gain in the pari-mutual betting.


Joe M

[kenwoodall]

If trainers use clocker sheets, what do you think about the honesty of the workouts? I think most are.

[MarylandPaul@HSH]

I've never been a sheet user, so I can't speak to their quality....but I submit that some of their perceived value is based on the cost. If it's expensive, it must be good.

If they were 5 bucks a day, I bet they'd have been out of business years ago.

MP

[Fastracehorse]

There are some clockers that are respected for their private info..

I remember Mitchell claiming a Maiden filly off her first start while she put up a 90-plus Beyer. Partly because of a clocker's sheet.

Lucy had some 'splaining to do.

fffastt

[Tom]

Originally posted by MarylandPaul@HSH
If they were 5 bucks a day, I bet they'd have been out of business years ago. MP

True, but funny.

[Shacopate]

You asked me to expand on my statement on how making your own fig's and developing class pars can lead to big scores.

Lets say the first race at your local track is a maiden claiming event. The favorite finished 2nd in his last race, but you know (by developing class pars) that his effort was well below par for this class and the others who have started are even worse.

This opens the door for a first time starter. I look for a well-connected horse with SLOW, consistent, evenly-spaced (a sign of fitness) works.

You'll be amazed at the prices and these types win their fair share.

[Fastracehorse]

<You'll be amazed at the prices and these types win their fair share

I also like slow works - or very light prepping.

A good firster can get most of what he/she needs from galloping. So, fast works can mean they are trying to get something into her/him - if that makes sense to U.

What is really difficult for 'cappers to accept is that firsters are really good bets.

There was a horse at Wdb yesterday that finished 3rd of 171 horses in a prep - this horse was also a firster - won easily at 9-1. It was almost obvious.

I just finshed saying I like light works - but a very quick work in the midst of some slower prepping is a very good sign.

Thanx for the reply,

:) :) :) :) :) :) :)

fffastt

[Shacopate]

Fffastt,

Here are the class pars for Churchill Downs I compiled for last years summer meet. I tried to use a minimum sample of 15 races for each class. The numbers have been adjusted to equal Beyer speed figures for convience.

MSW - 88
fillies - 79

MSW Turf - 80
fillies - 77

Mdn Clm 50k - 78
fillies - 73

Mdn Clm 30k - 72
fillies - 68

Mdn Clm 25k - 67
fillies - 64

Mdn Clm 20k - 66
fillies - 62

Mdn Clm 17.5k - 65
fillies - 61

Mdn Clm 15k - 62
fillies - 59

2 year old MSW - 80
fillies - 77

2 yr Mdn Clm 80k - 76
fillies - 71

2 yr Mdn Clm 50k - 65
fillies - 61

2 yr Mdn Clm 25k - 55
fillies -51

Claiming levels (males)
5k - 71
7.5k - 76
10k - 80
15k - 85
25k - 88
35k - 90
75k and up - 94

Alw (males)

N1X - 90
N2X - 96
N3X - 98

Stakes (males)

Ungraded - 100
Grade 3 - 103
G2 - 106
G1 - 109

For horses making their first start in the US, I subtract 14 points from the timeform rating to get a "rough estimate" on how it equates to a Beyer figure.

[gonatas]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
<I also like slow works - or very light prepping.

A good firster can get most of what he/she needs from galloping. So, fast works can mean they are trying to get something into her/him - if that makes sense to U.

What is really difficult for 'cappers to accept is that firsters are really good bets.

There was a horse at Wdb yesterday that finished 3rd of 171 horses in a prep - this horse was also a firster - won easily at 9-1. It was almost obvious.

I just finshed saying I like light works - but a very quick work in the midst of some slower prepping is a very good sign.

Thanx for the reply,

:) :) :) :) :) :) :)

fffastt



You have to pay attention to the trainer's record with firsters. Some very good trainers almost never win with them by design.

I seriously doubt that too many horses can win first time just by galloping (especially in sprints). I think it is more likely that some trainers make a point of hiding their fast work more than others do. Sometimes the quicker moves are hidden in the internal fractions of a longer works. But is all goes back to the way individual outfits work prepare their horses.

Personally, I think first time starters are overbet most of the time. In races without much form players tend to gravitate to firsters and overlook horses showing only one or two starts that may not look very good. Horses making their second or third starts can improve dramatically, and at inflated prices.

[Fastracehorse]

<You have to pay attention to the trainer's record with firsters. Some very good trainers almost never win with them by design.

While there are some dangerous barns that is not the most important factor in determining the prognosis of a firster. If U believe that then U miss out on many opportunities. Trainer stats are way over-rated - it is the horse! Low % trainers win with pricier firsters because 'cappers are all too aware of who the successful connections are.

Works just muscle the animal up.

A horse gets alot out of galloping - and if he's already muscled well...........what is the point of trying to put more into him??


<Personally, I think first time starters are overbet most of the time.

Not true. Firsters are underbet because of the psychological fear of the unknown.


:cool: :cool: :cool: :cool:

fffastt

[gonatas]

Originally posted by Fastracehorse@DRF
<<Personally, I think first time starters are overbet most of the time.

Not true. Firsters are underbet because of the psychological fear of the unknown.


:cool: :cool: :cool: :cool:

fffastt

Interesting. I would say that firsters are overbet because of unrealistic expectations on the part on the bettors. Well, I am sure somebody has an ROI on firsters.

But seriously, you can't disregard the trainer. Do you have any idea how many instruct their riders that "the horse is not ready" first time? Plenty of guys use the first race to school the horse and come back more serious the second time. Lukas for one. Zito is another. This is not to say that these guys do not win first time on occasion. But these ain't good bets first time.

Trainers' intentions are a lot more important here than you think.

[Fastracehorse]

<But seriously, you can't disregard the trainer.

I don't. I think that people over-estimtate their value - and I'm well aware of the efficacy of hot trainers.

But if U only look at the hot trainers - your going to miss value else-where. This game is about broadening your horizons. It's not that you can't simplify it some - but, don't simplify it too much. Be open to other factors that work.

<But these ain't good bets first time.

They are if they are going to run well. That's my point. If you look at firsters from only one view-point you only get a few winners.

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:

fffastt

[Shacopate]

I remember that you said how you liked a fast work thrown into a mix of slow ones for a first time starter.

I think this might interest you.

Today (22 May) at Pimlico, the 3rd race was for Mdn Clm 16k fillies going 6 furlongs. I've got the class par at a 55 Beyer for this track. The favorite is She's Valid, she has four starts and towers over the ones who have started with Beyers of 44,35,46,33. This was 11 points higher than the next top figure horse. So the crowd sent her off at 2-5. With the winning par at 55, I think we could both agree that it is "first time starter time."

Only one first time starter had more than two published works.
Pars Stellae had shown a steady work pattern with 5 SLOW, evenly spaced workouts followed by a BULLET just eight days ago. The only fast work on the 6 race work tab.

Result: 16.40 for the win.

Not a bad way to beat a 2-5 favorite.

[Fastracehorse]

That's a smart way to beat a 2:5 - nice job.

I believe that you don't always have to work them fast - if they are good they can get what they need from their gallops - works are to muscle them up some.

Maybe, the weak ones are worked hard 'cause they have no girth - not always the case.

I know I just repeated what I said earlier - and, nothing is written in stone - just trying to uncover some angles.

fffastt

[Shacopate]

I know that Quinn popularized the theory of the second time starter. But in my experience it means little in maiden claiming races unless the horse had some serious trouble in his first race.

The angle works best with a well-connected, blue-blooded first tme starter in a Maiden Special Weight race. If you plan on betting second time starters in maiden claiming races, I would
be happy to book your wagers.

[gonatas]

Originally posted by Shacopate
I know that Quinn popularized the theory of the second time starter. But in my experience it means little in maiden claiming races unless the horse had some serious trouble in his first race.

The angle works best with a well-connected, blue-blooded first tme starter in a Maiden Special Weight race. If you plan on betting second time starters in maiden claiming races, I would
be happy to book your wagers.

Can I get credit with you?:D

I know what you are saying and I agree. In a maiden claiming race there is no real incentive to "give a horse a race" if it has any quality at all. More likely it is the MSW horse with little distinguishable form that can be very dangerous running for a tag first time.

The main point I am making is that trainer intention is the most important factor with first time starters, because this factor alone is going to save you a lot of pain by avoiding guys who don't usually try first time.

[andicap]

Originally posted by Shacopate
I remember that you said how you liked a fast work thrown into Today (22 May) at Pimlico, the 3rd race was for Mdn Clm 16k fillies going 6 furlongs. I've got the class par at a 55 Beyer for this track.

How do you calcuate beyer pars beyond the ones posted in the Simulcast Weekly. That is, how do you adjust them beyond older males?

[Fastracehorse]

<If you plan on betting second time starters in maiden claiming races, I would
be happy to book your wagers.

From my experience U are right - especially with Eastern tracks - S. Cali. is more likely to run well 2nd start - why?? - working theory but Cali. is quite a bit different than the East.

My theory on 2nd-timers back East: 1) If they try first out they usually back off 2nd out, ie, run flat - unless there is a nice vacation - 40 days or so to bring the animal back.

2) If they run well in Mdn claiming first out and move up in class - don't bet them until they move down again - they are being protected until the drop for the score.

3) Sometimes the trainer will drop them off a good effort - don't bet them until they move up again - the move signals trainer intent and usually occurs greater than 30 days from the last good effort.

4) A nice way to bet 2nd-timers is if they run an even race first out and then are entered back quickly but double-dropped in class - this shows big intent.

I luv maidens - just know when to fold 'em

:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:

fffastt

[Shacopate]

I use Quirin-style numbers that I make from alot of old racing forms. I like pace numbers for cheaper races. As far as adjustments go: Timeform -14 = Beyer. Claiming fillies/mares -deduct 3/5 from male par sprints and 1 second for routes.
alw or msw deduct 2/5 sprints and 3/5 routes.
State breds -3 (FL and Cal) -1. Starter Alw x 1.5 to get comparable claming level. To those using Pizzola's numbers (not for me) his adjustments should be adjusted. He recommends add 6.3 prints an 6.4 routes when adjusting 1/2 fur, but if the Beyer is is above 90, then 6.2 and 6.3 is more accurate.

I also adjust 3-year old claming races according to the time of year. Nothing new, just trying to make the pars more accurate.

[andicap]

Thanks!

:D

[Storm Cadet]

As a horse owner, you can be assured that we went for the win-no such thing as a workout race...we trained for the win...placed him well at Saratoga...and got lucky and won...twice with 2 different horses in their first time out.

And don't be so believing of those morning clockers....or the numbers that are posted!!!!;)

[John]

Storm cadet,

WOW!!!! Now that is what I call coming right from the horse mouth. I can see a horse coming in and out of a form cycle.never believed they were work-out races.

Like you, I have a close trainer friend . I never ask him about his horses because he, does not bet and tries all the time.

also, you are so right about clockers worrkouts that are posted. My friend has not raced a horse for over 60 days more than once. The rule, is must show a workout before you can be entered for a race. All it took was a phone call.

[Shacopate]

I believe the first rule of clocker school is that 46 = 50.;)

[John]

shacopate

Once a guy write a book and I think he said , he was a clocker and hinted that the real fast ones are saved and sold or for his personel use.

[Fastracehorse]

<WOW!!!! Now that is what I call coming right from the horse mouth. I can see a horse coming in and out of a form cycle.never believed they were work-out races.

Many trainers try first out - in fact most do. But races for prepping and conditioning are a reality.

Further, it is my belief that if U want to learn about handicapping, U must talk to handicappers, afterall, it is their domain.

Horse's don't speak good English.

:cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool: :cool:

fffastt