Who benefits...

[Cholly]

Who benefits from last second chaotic odds changes? I would guess the prime beneficiaries are the larger computer betting groups. They are likely running sophisticated computer models that predict the final odds without having to refer to the tote board.

Prior to last year, I’ve always directed 90% of my wagering to NYRA races. The past two years I’ve been including Monmouth. There’s a lot I like about the racing there, but the last second dramatic shift in odds is very frustrating—I tend to lower my bet amount due to diminished confidence in what price I’ll be getting.

With the rolling doubles at NYRA (and pick 3 will-pays on almost every race), you can get a pretty good idea even at 10 MTP on what the final tote will look like. Not only does Monmouth not have the rolling doubles, but they stagger their multi-race exotics to minimize the number of races that have a will-pay. And that leads me back to the original question…is Monmouth doing this intentionally as a way of pandering to the computer betting whales?

Personally, I don’t play multi-race exotics, and I wouldn’t be contributing to the pool of rolling doubles if Monmouth were to institute them. But I would bet larger amounts into the W/P and exacta pools if I had the information they provided.

[ryesteve]

They are likely running sophisticated computer models that predict the final odds without having to refer to the tote board.Honestly, I don't think anyone can do that. I would think the best they can do is come up with an accurate line and assure that the horse will not go off at odds above that line, but I don't see how they can account for other heavy players who either have a stronger opinion, or place their bets simultaneously, resulting in lower odds than they would've liked or anticipated.

[InsideThePylons-MW]

There are 100's or 1000's of bettors out there (whales, non-whales, computer guys, non computer guys, standing at window etc.) all waiting till the last minute looking and betting on the overlays.

What happens is they all end up on the same horse/horses (usually speed horses) and the odds drop significantly on those.....a lot of times the overlay becomes an underlay and they are taking the worst of it.

Anybody sharp can almost predict where the late money is going to go so my best advice is to go where they ain't.

[Overlay]

I'm sure that the whales have very sophisticated algorithms at their disposal. However, short of rampant fixing or illegal wagering tactics, there are no guarantees. Not knowing which way the odds will move after the race starts is a difficult circumstance to address, but I think that reliable value can still be found by keeping the full field in view and using a balanced, multi-factored odds-assignment model.

[Rutgers]

Monmouth Park has had "last second chaotic odds changes" since at least the 1980's when I started playing races there. It comes from having small pools, especially when compare to NYRA.

Along those lines, when the pools are small the will pays are less likely to accurately reflect odds. So even with rolling doubles (where the handle would probably be less than 10K) the will pays probably would not be that reliable of a predictor of final odds.

[takeout]

http://news.cnet.com/Stock-traders-find-speed-pays%2C-in-milliseconds/2100-1014_3-6249912.html

[snip]
But as new marketplaces have emerged, PCs have been unable to compete with Wall Street's computers. Powerful algorithms--"algos," in industry parlance--execute millions of orders a second and scan dozens of public and private marketplaces simultaneously. They can spot trends before other investors can blink, changing orders and strategies within milliseconds.

High-frequency traders often confound other investors by issuing and then canceling orders almost simultaneously. Loopholes in market rules give high-speed investors an early glance at how others are trading. And their computers can essentially bully slower investors into giving up profits--and then disappear before anyone even knows they were there.
[snip]

Comment: Has to make a horseplayer wonder.

[11cashcall]

There are 100's or 1000's of bettors out there (whales, non-whales, computer guys, non computer guys, standing at window etc.) all waiting till the last minute looking and betting on the overlays.




I rermember when Pinnacle was still taking bets on horse's,at times waiting until the last min. was like waiting to see if your lighter would still work in a storm.