Calder July 23rd Race 6

[OverlayHunter]

When horses win at a price I like to see if I can figure out what might have been in the PP's to alert that the horse had a better shot than its odds suggested. The morning line on the winner of the race was 12:1.

It's not that I don't understand why the winner, Don't Wink, was a contender, I do, but I can't seem to find anything that would have alerted me that it was a longshot worth the wager even though it paid about $70. What about it made it a good wager for the odds and would likely produce a profit over the long term? Or is it simply that if a horse you believe is a contender to win goes off at 35:1, by definition it's worth a wager?

[cmoore]

That would of been a tough Filly to pull the trigger on..The Omega Code/ Elusive Quality pedigree could of easily got you on her the first race and possibly the 2nd career start..But after a hesitated and step slow start in both races. It would of taken some confidence that this runner will work out her start issues very soon. The trainer did get a high layoff figure in this type of race..http://www.breedingwinners.com/aspspecial/pdfdisplay.asp?filename=racereports/20090723-CRC-T.PDF

Many times these mdns will improve drastically. Sometimes there are small bits of info that lead to it. This particular race. There wasn't much there to justify a bet..

[coach_lowe]

When horses win at a price I like to see if I can figure out what might have been in the PP's to alert that the horse had a better shot than its odds suggested.

First off, it is just human nature to look back and "find what you missed". But I can tell you from experience that it is very easy to look back and find a reason why a horse won AFTER the race. I'm not knocking you, but you need to be a very realistic person to know when you simply overlooked a horse.

[OverlayHunter]

cmoore - thanks for the your analysis

coach - "But I can tell you from experience that it is very easy to look back and find a reason why a horse won AFTER the race. I'm not knocking you, but you need to be a very realistic person to know when you simply overlooked a horse."
I can usually find a reason after the race and, as I said, I believed the horse was a contender to win but I felt others had a greater chance to win and still can't come up with a sound logic to wager on this winner. I can't tell from your reply if you believe the horse was worth a wager or not and, if so, why.