what criteria do you use to throw out a horse

[bisket]

of course theres some easy throw outs in just about any race, but what are some of the things or reasons that lead you to throwout a contender on paper. i have some rules that i go by to help eliminate horses. one that has yielded some really profitable plays is if i don't see a work for a horse within two weeks of the horses last race he's a throwout. now in bottom level claimers i don't use this rule at all, but in allowance and stakes races its dam near 100% effective. its really good if this horse goes off at 3-5 :ThmbUp:

[Irish Boy]

Big drops in class with only a marginal advantage in speed rating (even if the advantage is consistent) is a toss for me- not so much because they won't win, but because they don't enough to justify the price.

[bisket]

Big drops in class with only a marginal advantage in speed rating (even if the advantage is consistent) is a toss for me- not so much because they won't win, but because they don't enough to justify the price.
if they are a class drop in an allowance the horse isn't in the best of form, and will be overplayed. in most cases i will include this horse in a tri though because an in the money finish is highly likely. alot of times in a stakes race goimg longer than 1 1/8 mile i'll eliminate a frontrunner/chaser if i think the horse is not in the form of his life. even if the horse has a win over the distance. alot of times distance is a good reason to eliminate a contender.

[Irish Boy]

I should say I'd toss from the win position, not necessarily altogether.

[Overlay]

Big drops in class with only a marginal advantage in speed rating (even if the advantage is consistent) is a toss for me- not so much because they won't win, but because they don't enough to justify the price.
I should say I'd toss from the win position, not necessarily altogether.

Your comments highlight the only valid reasoning for "tossing" a horse completely as a win wager -- based not on any given aspect of performance, but on lack of betting value (although the same horse may still offer value as part of an exotic combination).

[CincyHorseplayer]

One of the most dramatic false favorites tosses I ever saw was on August 20,2007 at Thistledown.There was a 6 horse maiden claiming field at 10 K and the favorite was a frontrunner dropping from MD Sp Wt nut his pace figures were awful compared to the other speed horse in the field who had but raced 4 times and only twice at a mile or better.This was on a day where the rail was drying out and bad,and the track was kind to closers.Not only did the logical winner pay 5-1 but the exacta paid 36.20.

In a 6 horse field that is big money.It was bias and pace vs class and running style.

[Bruddah]

When a horse ambulance pulls up to the starting gate and a horse is unloaded and enters the gate. A definite throw out. I've never seen one hit the board. :cool:

[BIG HIT]

Alw oc and horse in for price they do win.But i think at any price bad bet don't know the why's but do know very bad at least for me

[CincyHorseplayer]

Thus far it's been droppers with weaknesses.But it's also common knowledge at the end of a meet trainers will drop and send em.I betted against a ton of droppers late last season but got hammered doing so the last 2-3 weeks of the season(meets ending late Oct-Nov).

[Marshall Bennett]

When a horse ambulance pulls up to the starting gate and a horse is unloaded and enters the gate. :cool:
:lol: :lol:

[markgoldie]

In many ways, this is my specialty, since my major goal is to get as much value as possible in complex gimmicks. As the original poster pointed out, we are talking mostly about elimination for value, since the horses who are longshot throw outs are generally no-brainers.

I'll skip over what's been mentioned, such as suspicious droppers, except to say that there are a couple of hard and fast rules here. First, make sure that the trainer is a relatively low-percentage winner because high-percentage trainers may employ multiple drops routinely. Second, make sure there is a sufficient gap between the last race and the current event. This indicates that some thought went into the drop, probably following some advice of the attending veterinarian. But when a horse double drops, let's say, and wheels back in 10 0r 12 days, we might just have an over-reaction by the owner to a disappointing effort. Also, no works between events.

Unfavorable pace matchups are a great way to eliminate a contender. The target elimination will generally be a E type who shows two main characteristics: (1) a lack of pace numbers to get the front in the current event and (2) a history of significant fading when the top cannot be made. These types will get overbet coming off what appears to be a huge race, either winning or narrowly losing but in which the target animal had established a clear lead into slowish fractions. The large Beyer attracts the action but the pace scenario will cause that number to disintegrate in the current event.

Another unfavorable pace matchup may occur for S-types when they face either a very front-speed biased oval or a potentially paceless event populated by many E/P types, rather than straight E horses. The proliferation of E/P's is particularly damaging to the S horse because they can be both more comfortable and effective than straight E's when it comes to slower-than-normal paces. In races like this, even sharp S's will find they can't make ground as they normally do by passing burnt-up E's and E/P's played out by chasing a fast pace. These horses may have lowish odds due to consistently attractive Beyer numbers relative to the competition.

It is much trickier eliminating E/P and P types, at least from all positions on a complex vertical ticket.

Some of my best eliminations are found among flashy speed-types who enter a race with less-than-competitve figs. While speed types are always dangerous, you need a little deeper analysis to see how their speed has been effective. If they have been living off of clear leads and slowish pace numbers and their final figs (Beyers) are lower than a number of other performers, they are prime elimination material. This is doubly true if there appears to be something in the current event that may run with them early. But frankly, the elimination is better if there is no such early foot to impede them, because this is what draws the sucker money. The pace matchup boys jump all over such horses, but the final figs are coming like the grim reaper.

Other than that, I use a somewhat complicated method for adjusting final fig numbers and sometimes I can get key eliminations out of "false" fig numbers. I will not describe that process here, but if you search for my posts, I described it in a thread when I first introduced myself to the forum some months ago. If you're a true geek and want to know, just look it up.

Mark

[bisket]

another good elimination thats worked rather well for me in the sprint division; graded sprints in particular: first two races off the bench are almost always a sprinters best performances, and its down hill from there for at least a couple races. in the third race he's a good shot to finish third or worst. if you will notice the two eliminations i've posted are usually favored horses by the public. the sprinter will usually be coming off 2 wins or a win and an in the money finish, and be at very low odds. depending on who else is in the race this sprinter will drop out of the money, and the race will yield an excellant payoff. :ThmbUp: as mark has posted i look for ways to get value, and don't play races where value isn't available. if you can be right 30-50% of the time while betting value; you will always be playing with the publics money. :jump:

[fmolf]

we all know the obvious eliminations and how to tell when a horse is in for conditioning.Some animals just do not meet the pace and speed demands of todays race.i severely downgrade horss claimed in their last race by low % trainers off of high % trainers.also downgrade horses dropping for their second race in a row,unless drops are accompanied by increase in pace and or speed figures.

[Mike at A+]

My dad (God rest his soul - passed last November - and taught me just about everything I know about this sport) had a funny "throw out" strategy that be claimed to be amazingly accurate. If a horse took a dump during the post parade, it would never win. He claimed that it was almost bulletproof but I doubt if anyone keeps statistics on such things. What I can attest to is that every time I was at the track with him and he noticed this "event", the horse in question always did lose.

[Robert Goren]

This shows up at some smaller tracks once in awhile. No outrider in the post parade. I have never seen one of these win in over 40 years of betting horses.

[Canarsie]

My number one rule is kind of easy especially if I'm at the track. During the post parade I can throw out favorites or short priced horses depending how they look and act. I was at the Meadowlands yesterday and canceled a bet at the last moment a horse was acting up at the gate. He ran up the track I still didn't hit the race but felt good about my reasoning.

[bisket]

My dad (God rest his soul - passed last November - and taught me just about everything I know about this sport) had a funny "throw out" strategy that be claimed to be amazingly accurate. If a horse took a dump during the post parade, it would never win. He claimed that it was almost bulletproof but I doubt if anyone keeps statistics on such things. What I can attest to is that every time I was at the track with him and he noticed this "event", the horse in question always did lose.
i learned the game from my uncle. who was one of the best horse pickers i've ever come across. he loved pimlico, and would very disheartnend at the current condition of that track. his best advise to me was: if you plan to be good at this game trying to figure which horse is fastest is improtant, but if you always plan to be playing with publics money you have to learn to ride and train a horse for yourself. i always try to predict where a trainer will place their horse next in the graded division. since its impossible for me to be at the track all the time, i've adopted the big races and horses that run in them as my home track. when my uncle populated the md tracks on a regular basis he always knew which horse worked in the morning and what time the steed ran. he always said learn the way each trainer works and races his stable. this is how you'll know WHICH HORSE IS THE FASTEST TODAY. some other good advice he gave me. he said when watching a race always pay attention to the jockey and not so much the horse. the jock will let you know how the horse ran just by watching him. don't listen to the bullshit the trainers and jock tell the reporters. if their horse ran terrible or tired do you really think the trainer or jock will actually say that after the race. most times they'll give their run of the mill excuse. decide for yourself how a horse ran, and when you get good at that you'll be winning and not losing money!!

[bisket]

watching a horses body language before and during the race is always very important. this is one of the things io miss the most since i can't be at the track all the time now.