Pick 3 & 4 frustration

[FantasticDan]

I'm a nickel and dime weekend warrior that never played a P3 or P4 in my life until a month ago. For the last few weeks I've been betting $1 P3s and P4s (tho mainly P3s) two or three days a week, usually wheeling two or three horses in each race up to a $20 total ticket. I never go over $20.

So I've probably played about 15 total P3s. For eight or nine of those, I've had two out of the three winners. Several times I've hit an 8 or 10-1 in one race, only to lose the next where I wheeled a couple 5-2s.

But what's been the most frustrating has been hitting the first two races, and losing the third by a head. Or a neck. Or a hard-charging but not quite in time half-length. This has happened at least five or six times.

My latest example today at Finger Lakes:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/FL072009USA9.pdf

Nailed the 7th and 8th, and had both the 6 and 4 in the 9th.. the 6 was flying late but didn't get there. Par for my course.

Now I realize this is all podunk stuff to some of you big timers and grizzled veterans, but I was just wondering how you P3, 4, and 6 players deal with the (likely) consistant frustration of the narrow miss.

I figure I'm gonna keep playing the P3 until I finally break through and get one.. then I'll probably take a break and stick to the occasional DDs.

Losing on them is somewhat less frustrating. :lol:

[rrbauer]

You can't let your bankroll be your limiting parameter if it causes you to leave contenders out of the play.

Do your handicapping.

Build a play using your contenders.
If:
a> It's all chalk, forget it.
b> Cost is more than your money threshold, forget it.
c> Contenders fit - not all chalk - within your money threshold, play it.

I don't understand your logic of playing it until you hit it and then going off to something else. Why bother?

[wisconsin]

I regularly play the P4 at Los Al, and with quarter horses, near misses are a part of the game. I have had 3 of 4 on a regular basis, missing many a head bob. In the P4, I always look for one single, and rarely play without one. I am pretty good with those, but whenever I spread, it's dangerous, because when you spread, anything can happen, which is why I spread in the first place. Hold your head up, and keep using meaty horses, because it only takes one to get out of a lull. In your case of the P3, try and find a single in a leg, but not a favorite, unless it's between some meat. Don't be afraid to single a longer horse and spread in the chaos races. Good luck!

[arno]

Pick 3 and Pick 4 payouts are usually dictated by the first leg.
A 15/1 winner followed by a 5/1 followed by a 2/1 winner usually pays alot more than a 2/1 followed by a 5/1 followed by a 15/1.


Therefore here are my 2 rules that I use playing Pick 3's and 4's.

1. If first leg I like a heavy favorite I pass the PIck 3's and sometimes pass the Pick 4. Say sometimes as I can still get a nice price on a Pick 4 but less likely on a Pic 3.

2. I construct my ticket using more horses in 1st leg. A common ticket would be 5x3x2 for $30 or ALLx4x1.

So Yes, it's frustrating often for me but it;s worth it when I hit.

[toetoe]

Be strong, and recognize that it doesn't matter which leg you miss; it's just that you have invested more time and hope into it when you are two-fer-two.

Funny, but my experience is the opposite of Arno's. I remember having a pick-three to chalk that paid less than the parlay of the first two legs ( :eek: ).

Finally, anything pricy in the first leg should be hammered to win. Remember, you are parlaying $40 dollars if your first winner is at 19/1.

[andymays]

The biggest problem with a pick 3,4, or 6 sequence is that one or two legs are races you don't really like or have an opinion on.

Solution: Make Parlays with the two or three horses you like for the day and play them instead of the pick 3's,4's, and 6's with many horses you don't have an opinion on! ;)

[markgoldie]

Dan:

The cold hard fact is this: You simply are not investing enough money per play to be anything more than a donator to the pools. My advice would be to spend your $20 on win wagers on what you believe are slighlty overlaid contenders.

To play a pick rationally and with sufficient coverage, you can consult Steve Crist's book "Exotic Wagering" for the proper construction of tickets. Also, to even tweak that well respected work, I would add my vote to the gentleman who said front-load the plays- for yet another reason than the one he stated. Namely that being live into the final leg can allow some excellent "hedging" wagers when your probables are large. That way you can assure yourself of making money to the wager and (hopefully) without cutting too far into winnings if one of your horses hits in the final leg.

GL

Mark

[Irish Boy]

I'm a nickel and dime weekend warrior that never played a P3 or P4 in my life until a month ago. For the last few weeks I've been betting $1 P3s and P4s (tho mainly P3s) two or three days a week, usually wheeling two or three horses in each race up to a $20 total ticket. I never go over $20.

So I've probably played about 15 total P3s. For eight or nine of those, I've had two out of the three winners. Several times I've hit an 8 or 10-1 in one race, only to lose the next where I wheeled a couple 5-2s.

But what's been the most frustrating has been hitting the first two races, and losing the third by a head. Or a neck. Or a hard-charging but not quite in time half-length. This has happened at least five or six times.

My latest example today at Finger Lakes:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/FL072009USA9.pdf

Nailed the 7th and 8th, and had both the 6 and 4 in the 9th.. the 6 was flying late but didn't get there. Par for my course.

Now I realize this is all podunk stuff to some of you big timers and grizzled veterans, but I was just wondering how you P3, 4, and 6 players deal with the (likely) consistant frustration of the narrow miss.

I figure I'm gonna keep playing the P3 until I finally break through and get one.. then I'll probably take a break and stick to the occasional DDs.

Losing on them is somewhat less frustrating. :lol:

Here's one idea I adopted, which I think came from Davidowitz's book, but I can't remember. I'm a small time player as well that was curious about getting into multi-race wagering. I play almost entirely Pick 3s, and have a $30 system with 1 A horse, 2 Bs, and 1 C in each race. I have six tickets total, that work like this:

Ticket 1: A/ABB/ABB = $9
Ticket 2: ABB/A/ABB = $9
Ticket 3: ABB/ABB/A = $9
Ticket 4: C/A/A = $1
Ticket 5: A/C/A = $1
Ticket $6 A/A/C = $1

Total = $30

The idea is that you need at least one of your three picks in the races to win (I figure if you're not good enough to hit one, you don't deserve it anyway.) If you get two "A" horses and a B, you get it twice, and if you hit all three A horses, you get it three times. You're still alive if you get a C, so you can save yourself. I tend to avoid the M/L favorite in the A position, especially if they're really heavy, since it depresses the prices so much.

[schweitz]

What Mark said is correct.

[jonnielu]

I'm a nickel and dime weekend warrior that never played a P3 or P4 in my life until a month ago. For the last few weeks I've been betting $1 P3s and P4s (tho mainly P3s) two or three days a week, usually wheeling two or three horses in each race up to a $20 total ticket. I never go over $20.

So I've probably played about 15 total P3s. For eight or nine of those, I've had two out of the three winners. Several times I've hit an 8 or 10-1 in one race, only to lose the next where I wheeled a couple 5-2s.

But what's been the most frustrating has been hitting the first two races, and losing the third by a head. Or a neck. Or a hard-charging but not quite in time half-length. This has happened at least five or six times.

My latest example today at Finger Lakes:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/FL072009USA9.pdf

Nailed the 7th and 8th, and had both the 6 and 4 in the 9th.. the 6 was flying late but didn't get there. Par for my course.

Now I realize this is all podunk stuff to some of you big timers and grizzled veterans, but I was just wondering how you P3, 4, and 6 players deal with the (likely) consistant frustration of the narrow miss.

I figure I'm gonna keep playing the P3 until I finally break through and get one.. then I'll probably take a break and stick to the occasional DDs.

Losing on them is somewhat less frustrating. :lol:

My question would be why you didn't have the #8? That is the one you need to understand in order to win the Pk3 on purpose. Richard also makes an excellent point, when you move to the exotic you need a proper bankroll. Because you will need to learn to be a little more inclusive in your thinking.

The lesson in being nosed consistently is that you are being too exclusive in betting, because you should have had that nose in there. The answer is to loosen a little, not tighten. The Pk3 is a great object for pursuit though, since it offers big return for relatively small investment.

There is another lesson in your example too. Three longshots on the board, any of which could have won, and a favorite that ran out, also one that you would have to see as qualified to win. A healthy trifecta for anyone that could expect this to happen. The best thing you will learn in pursuing the Pk3, is to expect the unexpected.

Start putting your nickels and dimes into the piggy bank, and work the Pk3 on paper until you can consistently isolate the 3 solid contenders for today's races. 1 of them is going to be the favorite, so you just need to find two more that can beat the favorite today.When you are getting those three right more often then not, you might have enough bankroll to start playing them. But, don't start doing that yet.

Because by now, you've probably noticed that in working on getting the "right" three contenders for the Pk3, there is a percentage of trifectas that just consistently fall into place, just like your example. But, you now know that going after a trifecta on purpose, with only three horses is just as crazy as going after a Pk3 with only 2 horses.

However, realizing that you may have found the perfect backup for Pk3,4,6 play, you might elect to stay in research mode just a little longer. Because now you have found a role for the "trouble" horse that you always have trouble tossing. That is contender #4, for the trifecta backup, and it goes into any Pk that you are concerned about. Because it is about having the right horses, not about ticket cost. Consistent wins will easily cover the cost.

Inconsistency will be your emergency brake. Now see if you have a bankroll that will allow you to bet all $1 Pk3's on the card 3X3X3, plus all of the trifecta's with a 4 horse box. Even if it is a .50 cent tri ($6.00). Have you got that much now? Good.

Take $100 and hide the rest from yourself because you don't want to use it, you just want to know that you've got it. Now, take the $100 and bet the first two Pk3's @$1, depending on your use of #4 contender (which should be judicious), this will take between $54 and $72, then you'll need $24 for the Trifecta's in those four races. The change, and $2 more will get you a shot of Jack Daniels to steady the nerves.

If you win, then you've got wagering work to do into the afternoon. If you lose, you have to go replace the $100 some other way while you make corrections in your analysis before you can come back and try it again.

jdl

[Irish Boy]

I disagree on the "proper bankroll" line of thinking, to a certain degree. Here's how I think about it:

Every bet is either negative expectation or positive expectation in the long term. In theory, every single bet you make should be positive expectation. Of course, that's impossible, but still, it's an ideal. Playing $256 worth of Pick 4 tickets is no better than playing $8, if half or more of those 256 tickets are negative expectation in the long run while all 8 of the others are positive expectation.

Now, all this is much easier said than done. But aggregating bad bets isn't a key to success, although it might cut down on variance and dry spells. If you play 8 positive expectation pick 4 tickets a day, you'll win in the long run, but it might take you a long time to get there. I'd suggest collecting some recent results and seeing what types of horses typically pay out more than parlay odds at the tracks you follow. If you have the patience to wait out some losses, it'll pay off in the long run.

[Bettowin]

Nobody mentioned checking out the pick 3 pools before playing. At some small tracks the P3 pool might be $300 max. Is it worth putting together a ticket that costs more than $24 or so? I was looking through some of the track results in our region and was surprised to see how little is in some of the pools. Make sure you get paid for sniffing out 2 longshots and hitting a P3:)

[1GCFAN]

I don't play much because I don't usually have time to handicap ahead, but how do you guys handle rolling pick 3's. I usually try and repeat with the my same horses as each race goes off. It never seems to work because as soon as one leg runs out it kills two or three tickets and I wish I had stuck with the tri.

Also, I recommend the Crist book that was mentionted.

[Robert Fischer]

i had a pick 3 the other day, and I was playing for cash in hand at an OTB (rather than a bankroll on the computer)
I look at the Will-PaYs when it flashes, and I misread the amount thinking it was significantly higher.:bang:

So I am playing for cash-in-hand and I go crazy with a large double to leverage any other possible horses... My Original P3 hits something like $70 for a $12 wager, and I don't even break even. :blush:

[Robert Fischer]

Do your handicapping.

Build a play using your contenders.
If:
a> It's all chalk, forget it.
b> Cost is more than your money threshold, forget it.
c> Contenders fit - not all chalk - within your money threshold, play it.


Nice advice , simple and in the right direction.:ThmbUp:

[point given]

As told to me for p3, not what i do, but good for small p3 plays.

Single a long shot you like in the 1st leg then 3 x 3 for the next 2 legs , total $9 bet. Repeat as you see fit. The key is getting a price in the 1st leg which pays better as most use the obvious bet horses to be alive. Depends if you've got the stomach to tear up tickets early rather than later

[Relwob Owner]

I'm a nickel and dime weekend warrior that never played a P3 or P4 in my life until a month ago. For the last few weeks I've been betting $1 P3s and P4s (tho mainly P3s) two or three days a week, usually wheeling two or three horses in each race up to a $20 total ticket. I never go over $20.

So I've probably played about 15 total P3s. For eight or nine of those, I've had two out of the three winners. Several times I've hit an 8 or 10-1 in one race, only to lose the next where I wheeled a couple 5-2s.

But what's been the most frustrating has been hitting the first two races, and losing the third by a head. Or a neck. Or a hard-charging but not quite in time half-length. This has happened at least five or six times.

My latest example today at Finger Lakes:

http://www.equibase.com/static/chart/pdf/FL072009USA9.pdf

Nailed the 7th and 8th, and had both the 6 and 4 in the 9th.. the 6 was flying late but didn't get there. Par for my course.

Now I realize this is all podunk stuff to some of you big timers and grizzled veterans, but I was just wondering how you P3, 4, and 6 players deal with the (likely) consistant frustration of the narrow miss.

I figure I'm gonna keep playing the P3 until I finally break through and get one.. then I'll probably take a break and stick to the occasional DDs.

Losing on them is somewhat less frustrating. :lol:

Dan,


Being a fan of TVG, I found myself getting sucked into the Pick 4"s....I am a 50-100 dollar ticket guy and after a year, threw in the towel. I just think, like others have said, you need more money(just my experience). I have had far more success zeroing in on each race and betting the races individually. It ios impossible to have a strong opinion about all four races and with a smaller bankroll, you dont have enough money to cover the races you dont feel strongly about...good luck with whatever you do!

[MAGICHORSEMAN]

I have to comment on the pick 3 and 2 of 3 story. If you play 3 races in a pick 3 and all 3 races have 10 horses there are 27 ways to get 2 of 3 in the pick 3. There is just one way to get 3 of 3 in the pick 3 unless there are dead heats.

So from now until the day you stop playing horses or die you will pretty much get 2 of 3- 27 of every 28 times you play unless you get better at picking horses. Then there are some times you will only get one of 3 right. And other times you will get none of 3 right.

The pick 3 and pick 4 are the very best bets for you to make and get leverage and a great return on investment. If you can learn to single 6-1 shot or higher prices you can be playing horses for a long time with little investment with some nice returns.

Just remember that 2 of 3 is something to be expected everyday just like the sun coming up every morning. And to be a great player you have to moderate your temperment and not get too upset like other players and stick it out for some nice paydays.

Good Luck

[magwell]

I find that you have to be very selective on the sequences of the three races you choose, good size fields where you think you have a good opinion of value horses you think can beat the favorites, even using the favorites go deep and hope you can beat them... that's where the good scores are, if you cant beat them you still have a chance to get your money back or make a little or lose a little. Now with Saratoga opening that's where you will find those spots that I wait for all year....:cool:

[positive4th]

My own 2 cents on the P4 - - - - - its expensive, hard to hit, and while you can be a benefactor of uninformed $$$, you can also spend a bucket and a half to get that chance.

Playing it "TVG Style" is ruinous most of the time.

[ryesteve]

What Mark said is correct.I'm not sure I agree when it comes to the P3 bets. Betting 20 combinations doesn't seem like unreasonably low coverage at all. The problem is you have to understand your hit rate will be low and you can't get discouraged after only 15 losses in a row.

[jonnielu]

I'm not sure I agree when it comes to the P3 bets. Betting 20 combinations doesn't seem like unreasonably low coverage at all. The problem is you have to understand your hit rate will be low and you can't get discouraged after only 15 losses in a row.

Why will the hit rate be low?

jdl

[ryesteve]

Why will the hit rate be low?

jdl
Because if you bet too many combinations with favorites, you're betting underlaid combinations and you'll lose money.

[BlueShoe]

Because if you bet too many combinations with favorites, you're betting underlaid combinations and you'll lose money.

This is one of the major frustrations of playing the p3;play too few combinations and you will get taken out by a contender you really could have used.Spread and go too deep and you will be investing a lot of money for little return.Betting $36 and getting a $48 return is not good busines.My preference is to use fewer combinations bet multiple times.Long losing streaks,but when you hit a three figure payoff that you have several times makes it worthwhile.Must have at least one single in the sequence,and,as others have stated,cannot be the favorite in the first leg.

[SoCalCircuit]

hey everyone, i'm new posting but i've been lurking here for a while, but i thought i'd give my two sense about this.
i'm a big pick 4 player, when I go to my otb or track to bet i'll usually play one large pick 4 for the day and then play some small exactas, doubles, etc., in between races to keep me busy. additionally, i'll usually place atleast a small pick 4 everyday, even if i can't watch the races. in regards to the original question, you are right in that getting the last race is by far extremely frustrating. just last week at hollywood i had a late p4 in play, first two races were both around 9-1's, then a 2-1, and then i had 4 solid horses going into the final leg and got beat by a 19-1 who I still can't see winning on paper. (i also got the first race wrong in the place pick all and the rest of them right, and that ended up paying $9000, but im still more frustrated about the $2500 pick 4!) and while whoever posted that it doesn't matter which leg of the 3 or 4 you get wrong is obviously correct, the loss definitely stings a little bit more if its on the final race, after seeing the will pays, etc. i've found that the best thing to do is be a lot more disciplined in picking the race card to play a pick 4 in. scan through the tracks you like, and keep in mind that most good tracks will offer 2 pick 4s a day (and rolling pick 3s if thats what you prefer). the multiple ticket option that someone mentioned is a good method, i've caught several longshots in that way, which i wouldnt have been able to get if it had been in a single ticket. keep in mind that it is EXTREMELY unlikely that a longshot is going to win every race, it is also EXTREMELY likely that a favorite will win one race. so one potential is to wheel the favorites in 3 or so tickets. if you prefer the simple single ticket, the best thing i can recommend is search through all the tracks, even days in advance, and find one chalk who you think has no chance of losing, preferably in the second half of the pick 4 (or 3). next, try to find one race that you think will just be complete chaos, preferably in a small field, and press the all button (i know most of you veteran handicappers are probably agaisnt this, but there's a great feeling watching a race and just hoping for madness to occur) and for the other 1 or 2, just find 2 or 3 horses. this method has worked for me quite often. and yes, the tickets do get pricey, but like someone else said for the multiple-race bets, you really need money to make money

[FantasticDan]

Just wanted to thank everyone that's contributed to this thread.. great insights and fascinating stuff.. lots to think about! :ThmbUp:

[1st time lasix]

Surprised------not one comment regarding takeout? Be fully aware of the several venues that rake 25% out of pick 3's-----when their doubles only remove 18%. Anyone who plays regularly/frequently should be cognizant of the pick 3 and pick 4 takeouts in my humble opinion. Particularly if the pools are not very large. I personally love the chance for exotic overlay returns that are possible in these plays....but electing how you structure your tickets and what pools {takeouts} you play after doing your handicaping is a big part of the paramutual game. Frustration in pick 4's and pick 6's is impossible to avoid,,,,but unlike some others who post here...... I do consider a "hedging" strategy if i have nailed a longer shot or two on my early legs alive into the last. Cheers!

[jonnielu]

Because if you bet too many combinations with favorites, you're betting underlaid combinations and you'll lose money.

Do you want to win the bet, or are you happy just making the bet. If you leave out any fav., you are just playing on luck. Winning will verify nothing.

jdl

[ryesteve]

If you leave out any fav., you are just playing on luck. Since favorites lose 2/3 of the time, how is it you aren't relying on luck there too?

But please, by all means, demonstrate how you can make a profit on P3's that consist of all three favorites. And no, a "demonstration" doesn't consist of posting a twitter feed 3 days after the races have been run.

[SoCalCircuit]

something to keep in mind is that there's a difference between favorites and THE favorite. from experience, a pick 3 or 4 can still pay quite nicely with 3-1s across the bored, as long as each race had its share of 5-2's, 7-2's, etc. While, mathematically there has to be A favorite, the amount by which it is the favorite will not be statistically significant if were dealing with a 2-1 vs. a 5-2 (especially in smaller pools). now, if the winners are 4-5, 1-2, and 1-1, well that pick 3 is not even worth playing unless your going to play it straight and play it for 20 or turn it into a pick 6 since you already have 3 singles. like I said earlier, it all depends on the card that day. you can gain a huge advantage, also, by tracking the double will-pays for the first 2 races

[positive4th]

There aren't alot of ways to make a long-term winner out of underlays, period. That's true in WPS betting, and equally as true in P3's.

Gotta have a good opinion in multiple legs of the P3 (unlike the 4 or 6, where you can have a few obvious winners and still get a good payoff with 1 or 2 bombs). One way, and certainly not the only, is to do it like this:

a/a/a (x9) = $9

abb/abb/a (X1) = $9

abb/a/abb (x1) = $9

a/abb/abb (x1) = $9

abb/a/a (x3)= $9

a/abb/a (x3) = $9

a/a/abb (x3) = $9

You could add on other combos too, but the idea is to give yourself an bunch of winning tickets if 2 of your a's come home, and a veritable jackpot if all 3 make it.........you could hit a relatively small payout (say $35) with 3 faves in 3 competitive fields, but you'll have it 21 times and run to the bank :)

[ryesteve]

There aren't alot of ways to make a long-term winner out of underlays, period.

you could hit a relatively small payout (say $35) with 3 faves in 3 competitive fields, but you'll have it 21 times and run to the bank :)
Well, I started out agreeing with you, but then you lost me. It's hard for me to imagine a $35 P3 not being underlaid... and betting it 21 times is just loading up on what's most likely the most underlaid combination you're using. Sure, it'll seem like easy money when you collect a lot of money on such a chalky outcome, but once you back out all the instances when you bet that combo 21 times and tore up the tickets, I've got to believe the bottom line is pretty ugly.

[positive4th]

Well, I started out agreeing with you, but then you lost me. It's hard for me to imagine a $35 P3 not being underlaid... and betting it 21 times is just loading up on what's most likely the most underlaid combination you're using. Sure, it'll seem like easy money when you collect a lot of money on such a chalky outcome, but once you back out all the instances when you bet that combo 21 times and tore up the tickets, I've got to believe the bottom line is pretty ugly.

I'm going to have to agree with you (or at least not disagree) simply b/c I haven't tried it enough times to know for certain either way. It'd be interesting to know if anyone has good enough records on their own plays of the P3 to tell us for sure.

[markgoldie]

Surprised------not one comment regarding takeout? Be fully aware of the several venues that rake 25% out of pick 3's-----when their doubles only remove 18%. Anyone who plays regularly/frequently should be cognizant of the pick 3 and pick 4 takeouts in my humble opinion. Particularly if the pools are not very large. I personally love the chance for exotic overlay returns that are possible in these plays....but electing how you structure your tickets and what pools {takeouts} you play after doing your handicaping is a big part of the paramutual game. Frustration in pick 4's and pick 6's is impossible to avoid,,,,but unlike some others who post here...... I do consider a "hedging" strategy if i have nailed a longer shot or two on my early legs alive into the last. Cheers!
I discussed this in a thread some weeks ago but I'd never be able to find it now. So let me briefly recap it. A daily double and a pick 4 are essentially both parlays. However, in the structured gimmick, you are only exposed to the takeout one time, whereas in playing a standard parlay, you are exposed to the track takeout in each leg, so to speak. To calculate the advantage in playing a structured gimmick, we can compare a standard parlay of win bets to a daily double and then a pick 4. Let's assume that the track takeout is 15% for a win bet, 18% for a daily double, and 25% for a pick four.

In the daily double, the track returns 82% of wagered money, while in the 2-race parlay, it returns 85% x 85% or .85 x .85= .7225 or 72.25%. The advantage of playing a daily double, then, is .82 - .7225= .0975 or 9.75% advantage. (For the math wizzes, I am using a simplistic terminology of % advantage for illustration and comparison purposes. The "true" percent advantage is even higher because the % savings (difference) must be gauged as a percent of the larger return. So .0975 should technically be divided by .82, which equals 11.89%.)

In a pick 4, the track returns 75% of the wagered money. However in a standard parlay, the return would be .85 x .85 x .85 x .85= .522 or 52.2 %. Here, the simplistic % advantage is 22.8%. And the simplistic advantage to playing a pick 4 versus a daily double is 13.05%. (Technical advantage 30.4% - 11.89% or 18.51% advantage).

In other words, if you are concerned about track takeout, it is more advantageous to play a pick 4 at a 25% takeout rate than a daily double at an 18% takeout rate. This, of course, does not address the inherent problems such as bankroll size required, strike rates, forced inclusion of otherwise non-playable races, etc.

[positive4th]

a/a/a (x9) = $9

abb/abb/a (X1) = $9

abb/a/abb (x1) = $9

a/abb/abb (x1) = $9

abb/a/a (x3)= $9

a/abb/a (x3) = $9

a/a/abb (x3) = $9



Assuming the favorite is winning 1/3 of all races, and also (BIG ASSUMPTION HERE) assuming that you've selected the most likely winners of these races the other 2/3 of the time, (and help me with the math if its off here) you've got the following chances:

Ticket 1 = 3.7%

T. 2, 3, 4 = 14.8% each, & 42.4% cumulatively

T. 5,6,7 = 7% each, and 21% combined

So you've got maybe a two-thirds chance with that array in a given P3, but again we're assuming that our handicapping is pretty darn good or pretty darn lucky, and neither one will always be the case, so that two-thirds has no real basis in reality.........what then are the relative odds of hitting with that spread, b/c that will help us to figure out when to play it or not

[positive4th]

I discussed this in a thread some weeks ago but I'd never be able to find it now. So let me briefly recap it. A daily double and a pick 4 are essentially both parlays. However, in the structured gimmick, you are only exposed to the takeout one time, whereas in playing a standard parlay, you are exposed to the track takeout in each leg, so to speak. To calculate the advantage in playing a structured gimmick, we can compare a standard parlay of win bets to a daily double and then a pick 4. Let's assume that the track takeout is 15% for a win bet, 18% for a daily double, and 25% for a pick four.

In the daily double, the track returns 82% of wagered money, while in the 2-race parlay, it returns 85% x 85% or .85 x .85= .7225 or 72.25%. The advantage of playing a daily double, then, is .82 - .7225= .0975 or 9.75% advantage. (For the math wizzes, I am using a simplistic terminology of % advantage for illustration and comparison purposes. The "true" percent advantage is even higher because the % savings (difference) must be gauged as a percent of the larger return. So .0975 should technically be divided by .82, which equals 11.89%.)

In a pick 4, the track returns 75% of the wagered money. However in a standard parlay, the return would be .85 x .85 x .85 x .85= .522 or 52.2 %. Here, the simplistic % advantage is 22.8%. And the simplistic advantage to playing a pick 4 versus a daily double is 13.05%. (Technical advantage 30.4% - 11.89% or 18.51% advantage).

In other words, if you are concerned about track takeout, it is more advantageous to play a pick 4 at a 25% takeout rate than a daily double at an 18% takeout rate. This, of course, does not address the inherent problems such as bankroll size required, strike rates, forced inclusion of otherwise non-playable races, etc.

Thanks Mark - - - I'm someone interested in the numbers but not always bright enough to punch them out.........is this basically what Steve Crist was getting at ("Exotic Betting") with the idea of buying more apples for a discounted "per apple" rate SO LONG AS you want them all (hence a P4)??

[markgoldie]

There aren't alot of ways to make a long-term winner out of underlays, period. That's true in WPS betting, and equally as true in P3's.

Gotta have a good opinion in multiple legs of the P3 (unlike the 4 or 6, where you can have a few obvious winners and still get a good payoff with 1 or 2 bombs). One way, and certainly not the only, is to do it like this:

a/a/a (x9) = $9

abb/abb/a (X1) = $9

abb/a/abb (x1) = $9

a/abb/abb (x1) = $9

abb/a/a (x3)= $9

a/abb/a (x3) = $9

a/a/abb (x3) = $9

You could add on other combos too, but the idea is to give yourself an bunch of winning tickets if 2 of your a's come home, and a veritable jackpot if all 3 make it.........you could hit a relatively small payout (say $35) with 3 faves in 3 competitive fields, but you'll have it 21 times and run to the bank :)

A bit confused here. I'm assuming that your "a" selections represent the favorites in the races. If so, in this illustration, you would hit the gimmick 7 times, not 21 as stated. Your investment was $63. Your return (assuming that the $35 payout you quote is for a $1, rather than $2 ticket) would be $245. And your achieved odds on your $63 wager would be 2.89 - 1. Not exactly what I believe constitutes what you characterized as a "run to the bank" or a "veritable jackpot."

[positive4th]

A bit confused here. I'm assuming that your "a" selections represent the favorites in the races. If so, in this illustration, you would hit the gimmick 7 times, not 21 as stated. Your investment was $63. Your return (assuming that the $35 payout you quote is for a $1, rather than $2 ticket) would be $245. And your achieved odds on your $63 wager would be 2.89 - 1. Not exactly what I believe constitutes what you characterized as a "run to the bank" or a "veritable jackpot."

the 7 tickets are weighted out - - the numbers in parentheses (9+3+3+3+1+1+1) equal the 21 hits

[positive4th]

the 7 tickets are weighted out - - the numbers in parentheses (9+3+3+3+1+1+1) equal the 21 hits


Notice, for example, that a/a/a would only be a $1 play, the reason it comes out to $9 like all the rest is b/c it was punched 9 times.......................it was simply an idea of how to play the P3, not the greatest idea since gravity

[markgoldie]

Thanks Mark - - - I'm someone interested in the numbers but not always bright enough to punch them out.........is this basically what Steve Crist was getting at ("Exotic Betting") with the idea of buying more apples for a discounted "per apple" rate SO LONG AS you want them all (hence a P4)??
Yes. I prefer supers to horizontals because I have strict rules as to what types and field sizes I will play. I can virtually never get a four-race spread of these races in a pick 4. But I will play horizontals when there is a reasonable carry-over.

The mathematical advantages of playing horizontals is slightly better than verticals assuming equal field sizes because in the verticals, each time you select a tier, you are reducing the remaining field by one (because some horse has to appear in that tier and horses can't be in multiple tiers in the same race, eg. a horse can't finish second and third in the same event.
Still, the takeout advantage is considerable.

[markgoldie]

the 7 tickets are weighted out - - the numbers in parentheses (9+3+3+3+1+1+1) equal the 21 hits
Sorry, my bad.

[Robert Fischer]

you can gain a huge advantage, also, by tracking the double will-pays for the first 2 racesI'd like to hear more about your method here, if you don't mind sharing.

[positive4th]

Yes. I prefer supers to horizontals because I have strict rules as to what types and field sizes I will play. I can virtually never get a four-race spread of these races in a pick 4. But I will play horizontals when there is a reasonable carry-over.

The mathematical advantages of playing horizontals is slightly better than verticals assuming equal field sizes because in the verticals, each time you select a tier, you are reducing the remaining field by one (because some horse has to appear in that tier and horses can't be in multiple tiers in the same race, eg. a horse can't finish second and third in the same event.
Still, the takeout advantage is considerable.

yup, you edited based on the question i was about to ask about why you had "horizontals" (multirace) and "verticals" (intrarace) crossed up.........makes plenty of sense now. Cheers!!

[Light]

In the initial post,FD obviously knew the chalk was vulnerable in the last leg at FL. The other races were formful. You really have no one to blame but yourself. That leg was a chaos race and you knew it. You have to come clean with yourself and say,"this is a chaos race and I'm going to use alot of horses in it" or "I know its a chaos race and I cant afford to use alot of horses in it and if I lose,I lose". There's no need to be frustrated. You knew it was coming. I just went through that Sunday at FL.Throughout the entire Pk4,I said to myself,this horse is the only one that can beat me but I didnt want to increase the ticket by 33%. And he beat me.I had all the other legs.I made a choice and I was wrong.I take full responsibility for it,learned my lesson and move on.

[SoCalCircuit]

Robert,
Much of my methodology in betting deals with tracking money, looking for numbers which seem out of place, as well as classic handicapping. The double will pays have become an incredibly useful tool for me. when playing a pick 4, the first race obviously gives you the most information because you can track where the moneys been going. Has any horse been bet down alot? Have any chalks been receiving no money at all? This is why, as many have stated, that if you could pick a longshot in any of the 4 races, you would want it to be the first, as I have found that a lot of less experienced bettors with money to burn simply let the bet-downs handicap the first race for them. looking at the double will pays (the first race of the double being the first race of the pick 4, and the second being the second), can give you a very accurate glimpse into the future. what i do is a take any horse from race 1 as a constant (say horse A) and look at how much the doubles will pay with horse A from race one and horses A, B, C, D... in race 2, and write them down these will pays. I next compare them to the morning lines, and look for anomalies. very often, the horses with the best odds will be paying the least, as you'd expect; however, sometimes a lot of money will be where you wouldn't expect it, and that can become very valuable information when playing your bet.

[Robert Fischer]

Robert,
Much of my methodology in betting deals with tracking money, looking for numbers which seem out of place, as well as classic handicapping. The double will pays have become an incredibly useful tool for me. when playing a pick 4, the first race obviously gives you the most information because you can track where the moneys been going. Has any horse been bet down alot? Have any chalks been receiving no money at all? This is why, as many have stated, that if you could pick a longshot in any of the 4 races, you would want it to be the first, as I have found that a lot of less experienced bettors with money to burn simply let the bet-downs handicap the first race for them. looking at the double will pays (the first race of the double being the first race of the pick 4, and the second being the second), can give you a very accurate glimpse into the future. what i do is a take any horse from race 1 as a constant (say horse A) and look at how much the doubles will pay with horse A from race one and horses A, B, C, D... in race 2, and write them down these will pays. I next compare them to the morning lines, and look for anomalies. very often, the horses with the best odds will be paying the least, as you'd expect; however, sometimes a lot of money will be where you wouldn't expect it, and that can become very valuable information when playing your bet.
Much Appreciated.

[jonnielu]

Are there successes to report with these dice-throwing methods?

jdl

[ddog]

what a gem that one! dice throwing he asks!!!

:D :D