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rispa
07-20-2009, 09:57 AM
Hi all;

Anyone have any thoughts about the upcoming Saratoga meet which starts a week from Wednesday, and/or what to expect in 2009?

Thanks.

1st time lasix
07-20-2009, 10:29 AM
The Spaaaa.....mmmm....what to expect---nice crowds although may be a bit down from last year. Quickly changing track conditions {bias} based on Summer rain downpours. High takeouts on tris, supers, pick 3, 4, and pick 6's....lower takeouts on win, exacta and doubles. Too many carded NY bred races. Chalk favorites winning around 35% of the time despite the track's old reputation as the "graveyard of favorites." Lots of nice well bred two year old's making their debuts. Many trainer-jocky combinations being underlays. Restaurants and bars in Saratoga alive with action after all the tickets have been torn up and thrown away.

46zilzal
07-20-2009, 11:13 AM
Very formful. Very few hidden moves. A great meeting

markgoldie
07-20-2009, 11:19 AM
After a bad day at the windows, you can always spin over to the trots at night to try to get even. Had some summers where I would have been better off just playing the trotters and passing the t-breds. Did see the famous epic battle between Jaipur and Ridan in the Travers. Lord knows what year that was. Do remember that the two of them were so gassed from dueling that a little-known upstart by the name of Military Plume was flying at the end and almost ruined the storybook race. Remember my favorite jockey was Johnny Sellers. But this is off topic, sorry.

KingChas
07-20-2009, 11:39 AM
Go to DRF and click on Saratoga-Saratoga trainer stats-sample pages.
They give you a few free pdf files from last year.
Jockey stats,wet sire stats,Contessa stats.
Click on save file and put them in a folder.
Not much, but nice little freebies.
Good luck "At the Spa".

MickJ26
07-20-2009, 12:01 PM
Pay attention to Linda Rice.
She often gets overlooked at Saratoga.
Her winning percentage is up there with the big boys.

cj's dad
07-20-2009, 12:14 PM
My hardest track to h'cap- possibly because I'm hanging out in the "big red tent" drinking ice cold beer all day with the PA crew.

badcompany
07-20-2009, 12:16 PM
Pletcher tends to get overbet. So, if you can find a race in which you think he's vunerable, overlays can be had.

The trainer that's hot early in the meet will often be cold later in the meet because his well spotted horses that won will have had to move up in class and are often in over their head, but the public still bets the "Hot Trainer."

I like to keep my bets smaller earlier in the meet because there are horses coming from everywhere and there simply are too many unknowns. It's kinda like the Derby in that way.

To elaborate on what Mark said about the trotters, the Racino has a pretty good all-you-can-eat buffet, with tip, it's $20. You can sit there and handicap while you gorge yourself.

rrbauer
07-20-2009, 12:26 PM
... the Racino has a pretty good all-you-can-eat buffet, with tip, it's $20. You can sit there and handicap while you gorge yourself.

You can also build your own ala carte meal from their offerings for less than $10.

BRIS had a copy of this newsletter in their last issue of Handicapping Times that covers both Del Mar and Saratoga.

http://www.frandsen.com/newsletters/July%202009/BRIS/July%20Newsletter%20ALL-Ways%20Handicapping%20Software.pdf

califhorse
07-20-2009, 07:00 PM
clocked some in the a.m. from the gate. almost fell over when the posted times came up three seconds slower than mine the next day in the office. followed these. as you can guess, were pounded in dbls & p3s. they ALL WON, my advice is to follow the $ and will pays, esp. in baby mdn. races. as told to me by a great, late, clocker, " DON'T BELIEVE WHAT YOU SEE IN THE FORM '' So, what im saying is, "the boys" make their scores at the SPA. you too can score if you stay focused. good luck !

offtrack
07-20-2009, 07:22 PM
Saw a bullet work held at the request of the trainer on an unraced colt. Clockers
said the rule was the trainer had to request it. So indeed be careful with the unraced horses.

parimutual
07-20-2009, 07:29 PM
Anyone know the status of Siros? I see they have booked their entertainment for the post race cocktail parties but with the place for sale could changes be far behind? Any changes in dining and entertainment options?

the little guy
07-20-2009, 07:35 PM
clocked some in the a.m. from the gate. almost fell over when the posted times came up three seconds slower than mine the next day in the office. followed these. as you can guess, were pounded in dbls & p3s. they ALL WON, my advice is to follow the $ and will pays, esp. in baby mdn. races. as told to me by a great, late, clocker, " DON'T BELIEVE WHAT YOU SEE IN THE FORM '' So, what im saying is, "the boys" make their scores at the SPA. you too can score if you stay focused. good luck !


While I imagine most here understand how to deal with workouts, I think a quick study of 2YO maiden results at Saratoga recently will prove this completely untrue. It seems to me since the unfortunate death of Marty ( the Clocker ) Katz a few years ago, the tote action on 2YO maiden races in NY has been misleading on a regular basis.

pandy
07-20-2009, 10:38 PM
Very formful. Very few hidden moves. A great meeting

Yes there have been meets that were quite formful, there have also been meets that were impossible. Sometimes the chalk does poorly in the beginning of the meet, then improves during the last two weeks. Last year the favorites won 33% but it was not an easy meet for "form" handicappers, even the better public handicappers did poorly.

Time will tell if this meet is going to be chalky or impossible, but it could go either way at the Spa.

Easy Goer
07-21-2009, 12:01 AM
Over the years I've always made some nice coin by backing two trainers who often do well @ Saratoga, although I'll admit that last year it didnt work out as good as it had in past years. Still its been so good for me before then that I'm going to stick with it.

Those two trainers are H. James Bond & Nick Zito. I know these two are household names, but for some reason their horses go off at decent prices & they run well (ITM). I was told that it had something to do with them training their horses year round at Saratoga, but I'm not totally sure about this.

the little guy
07-21-2009, 01:36 AM
Those two trainers are H. James Bond & Nick Zito. I know these two are household names, but for some reason their horses go off at decent prices & they run well (ITM). I was told that it had something to do with them training their horses year round at Saratoga, but I'm not totally sure about this.


You are correct that both Jimmy and Nick are both stabled at the Oklahoma pretty much the entire time it is open from April through October.

Java Gold@TFT
07-21-2009, 05:07 AM
You are correct that both Jimmy and Nick are both stabled at the Oklahoma pretty much the entire time it is open from April through October.

I saw recently in the rumor mill that Bond has one of his strongest strings in years and is primed for a big meet - FWIW.

KingChas
07-21-2009, 08:53 AM
I'm interested to see if Baffert sends any of his 2yr olds to th Spa from the west.
Excert from DRF article;

Baffert is loaded.
"I've got some nice ones," he admitted. "The majority of them will be ready toward the middle of the meet."

What else is new? :D

andymays
07-21-2009, 08:56 AM
A one mile oval with a traditional dirt surface and quality racing.

What a concept!

Look for Saratoga to blow the "handle doors" right off Del Mar!

Go Saratoga!

the little guy
07-21-2009, 09:11 AM
A one mile oval with a traditional dirt surface and quality racing.

What a concept!

Look for Saratoga to blow the "handle doors" right off Del Mar!

Go Saratoga!


It's a 1 1/8 mile oval.

delayjf
07-21-2009, 10:03 AM
Question for CJ,

With all the horses decinding on Sar from NY, KY, NJ, etc. Do you find speed figures as effective in the first few weeks of the meet?

slewis
07-21-2009, 10:05 AM
And no one has even mentioned steeplechase racing???

You know, the aspect of racing where the mortality and injury rate is 10 TIMES greater than flat racing....

Oh, but the NTRA safety alliance would never dare F- the those that race jumpers..

So I pose the question to those that defended the NTRA in my post regarding Delaware Park...

Is the life of a jump horse 10 times less valuable then that of a flat runner???

Hypocracy gone mad.... the NTRA...:bang:

For the "good" of the game...:lol:

cj
07-21-2009, 10:08 AM
Question for CJ,

With all the horses decinding on Sar from NY, KY, NJ, etc. Do you find speed figures as effective in the first few weeks of the meet?

Yes, I find they work fine. Of course there a lot of 2yo races where they are pretty irrelevant.

rokitman
07-21-2009, 10:23 AM
Hi all;

Anyone have any thoughts about the upcoming Saratoga meet which starts a week from Wednesday, and/or what to expect in 2009?

Thanks.
Expect to get your clock cleaned in 2009. There's a very good chance you won't be disappointed. :ThmbUp:

1st time lasix
07-21-2009, 10:58 AM
While I imagine most here understand how to deal with workouts, I think a quick study of 2YO maiden results at Saratoga recently will prove this completely untrue. It seems to me since the unfortunate death of Marty ( the Clocker ) Katz a few years ago, the tote action on 2YO maiden races in NY has been misleading on a regular basis. Not sure what this means......other than your recognition of Mr Katz. Could you please elaborate? Thank you.

the little guy
07-21-2009, 11:31 AM
Not sure what this means......other than your recognition of Mr Katz. Could you please elaborate? Thank you.

It was pretty straight forward. Based on the results vs the betting action in 2YO maiden races in NY ( particularly Belmont and Saratoga ) the theoretical inside information is very unreliable. If you don't believe me, take a look for yourself. Live outfits seem to win a big prices with the same regularity they get routinely buried at short prices. Just last week, a Jimmy Jerkens firster was bet off the board.....and finished off the board. Todd Pletcher won the race, for fun, with a firster at $13 and change. The next day, Todd ran a firster that was even money.....he finished third ( beaten a city block ). Saturday, Kimmel ran a 3:5 firster, in a five horse field, and didn't even hit the board. The next day, Kimmel ran a firster, a filly against colts, who won at 7:1 ( though there were a lot of stories on that horse ).

The 2YO races at Saratoga are a minefield for people who think they have inside info. Capt. Candyman Can, now a multiple Graded stakes winner, crushed a field in his debut last summer and paid over $30. David Carroll won with a firster who's name escapes me ( she was just 4th in the Prioress ) that paid almost $40 and went on to win stakes. Devotee, arguably one of Godolphin/Darley's better 2YO won in a laugher and paid around $40. Now, she probably trained at the private center, but even so, these are examples of how tricky trying to read the board in 2YO races has become in NY.

Now, I've thought about this, a lot, as basically I have to. And, the only thing I can come up with is that Marty is no longer with us. I understand, I'm not saying this is the only reason ( or even close ), but believe me, and people who are involved in NY racing would back this up, he controlled the board in 2YO races. He was THE source.......and maybe it is a tribute to him, as since he left us, using the board to play 2YO races is like russian roulette.

This is a more thoughout response to the previous poster who declared that magically the board gives all the answers to the plethora of 2YO races in Saratoga. Since this thread asked a question about playing Saratoga, I thought I would offer another ( and very different ) opinion.

rjorio
07-21-2009, 04:18 PM
Horses for courses,the way to go at Spa.

jefftune
07-21-2009, 06:00 PM
Horses for courses,the way to go at Spa.

And trainers for courses. I use Jim Mazur's "Saratoga Handicapper" book. Pays for itself every year!
Early in the meet is the time I usually make $$$. Playing against the faves is the way to go at the Spa. Also the races are so competitive that pick threes are tougher. Last year NY added the rolling daily double. Much easier to hit two races than three. The rolling double was my key to a winning 2008 Saratoga meet.

-Jeff Tune
www.angelfire.com/pa/tune (http://www.angelfire.com/pa/tune)

Cratos
07-21-2009, 08:07 PM
Hi all;

Anyone have any thoughts about the upcoming Saratoga meet which starts a week from Wednesday, and/or what to expect in 2009?

Thanks.
Handicapping Saratoga to me is far different than any other racetrack that I have handicapped.

The big reasons for me are: (1) All horses are shippers, (2) Handicapping against some of the best handicappers in North America, (3) Many stake races (and that is good), and (4) Distraction (there are a lot of things to do in Saratoga)

Therefore I hope all of you success and I’ve attached a layout of the racetrack for those of you not familiar with the Saratoga track layout.

Chris Longshot
07-21-2009, 09:39 PM
I like focusing on longshot trainer outfits that have done poorly or mediocre at the current Belmont meet, who horses show signs of life towards the last few days leading up to the Spa, you might see a double digit winner or even a subtle as a 3/1 winner. The assumption being there real intent is to fire big and at a price at the Spa, these are generally small but capable outfits that just can't seem to win a race at the current meet, then suddenly and sometimes without warning, erupt at Saratoga, just an observation. :)

thespaah
07-21-2009, 10:16 PM
Hi all;

Anyone have any thoughts about the upcoming Saratoga meet which starts a week from Wednesday, and/or what to expect in 2009?

Thanks.Turf routes offer the best value. These events usually have the largest fields.
When SAR is "fast" closers seem to do well..Especially in dirt sprints. Weird.
One thing I do notice is in sprints "middle moves" ,that is horse that gun for the lead around the far turn can gallop away to open length wins. Seen that happen a bunch.
Another poster mentioned changing track conditions due to weather. He is spot on.
Saratoga can be a strange track to bet. There could be three or four straight front end sprint winners and then in the next, BOOM, big closer comes off East Avenue and goes by 'em all.

andymays
07-21-2009, 10:20 PM
It's a 1 1/8 mile oval.


Thanks for the correction. My bad. I still like it!

Cratos
07-21-2009, 10:28 PM
It was pretty straight forward. Based on the results vs the betting action in 2YO maiden races in NY ( particularly Belmont and Saratoga ) the theoretical inside information is very unreliable. If you don't believe me, take a look for yourself. Live outfits seem to win a big prices with the same regularity they get routinely buried at short prices. Just last week, a Jimmy Jerkens firster was bet off the board.....and finished off the board. Todd Pletcher won the race, for fun, with a firster at $13 and change. The next day, Todd ran a firster that was even money.....he finished third ( beaten a city block ). Saturday, Kimmel ran a 3:5 firster, in a five horse field, and didn't even hit the board. The next day, Kimmel ran a firster, a filly against colts, who won at 7:1 ( though there were a lot of stories on that horse ).

The 2YO races at Saratoga are a minefield for people who think they have inside info. Capt. Candyman Can, now a multiple Graded stakes winner, crushed a field in his debut last summer and paid over $30. David Carroll won with a firster who's name escapes me ( she was just 4th in the Prioress ) that paid almost $40 and went on to win stakes. Devotee, arguably one of Godolphin/Darley's better 2YO won in a laugher and paid around $40. Now, she probably trained at the private center, but even so, these are examples of how tricky trying to read the board in 2YO races has become in NY.

Now, I've thought about this, a lot, as basically I have to. And, the only thing I can come up with is that Marty is no longer with us. I understand, I'm not saying this is the only reason ( or even close ), but believe me, and people who are involved in NY racing would back this up, he controlled the board in 2YO races. He was THE source.......and maybe it is a tribute to him, as since he left us, using the board to play 2YO races is like russian roulette.

This is a more thoughout response to the previous poster who declared that magically the board gives all the answers to the plethora of 2YO races in Saratoga. Since this thread asked a question about playing Saratoga, I thought I would offer another ( and very different ) opinion.


A very well stated case of the Saratoga “mine field.”

Java Gold@TFT
08-15-2009, 06:39 AM
Pay attention to Linda Rice.
She often gets overlooked at Saratoga.
Her winning percentage is up there with the big boys.
OK, dragging this one back up. How has everyone's Saratoga handicapping theories been going for you after 3 weeks? I know that Mick must be doing well as Linda had the trainer lead at the midway mark and they were all turf races and many were way overlooked.

I've been doing well with the 2yo's who spent their summer in KY so far. They are a lot more farther along in their development than the NY based horses who lost so much training time and potential races due to the summer of rain in NY.

Not many off the turfs and something like 30% of the races have qualified for the bonuses put in place to get full fields. The hot and muggy weather of yesterday looks to continue for the mext 3 days. Lots of horses getting hosed down in the paddock before the race.

Tom
08-16-2009, 04:44 PM
My 2 cents - the racing sucks.
It is the worst meet I have ever seen.

I played a couple of days and after Saturday, want no part of it at all.
I vote for going back to 4 weeks and cut out the crap races, which are about 80% so far.

If I hadn't paid for my hotel already, I would cancel my trip there this week.
I just downloaded Thursday's card and it is a miserable card of crap racing at it's worse. I will be NOT be playing the SPA races while I am there - only simulcast races. This is going to be more of a social visit than anything. I tell you this, this is my last year of Toga, as it is with all of NYRA in general.

Bring on Presque Isle Downs.......

classhandicapper
08-16-2009, 08:20 PM
My 2 cents - the racing sucks.
It is the worst meet I have ever seen.

I played a couple of days and after Saturday, want no part of it at all.
I vote for going back to 4 weeks and cut out the crap races, which are about 80% so far.

If I hadn't paid for my hotel already, I would cancel my trip there this week.
I just downloaded Thursday's card and it is a miserable card of crap racing at it's worse. I will be NOT be playing the SPA races while I am there - only simulcast races. This is going to be more of a social visit than anything. I tell you this, this is my last year of Toga, as it is with all of NYRA in general.

Bring on Presque Isle Downs.......


THere have been a lot of races that are outside my circle of competence, but Presque Isle Downs is going a little too far. ;)

point given
08-16-2009, 11:54 PM
Put $2k into the p6 today and had 3 live ones (around 55-$69k s), going into the last but came up empty in one of those lovely 5 1/2 F turf sprints. Tough game. p6 paid $119k. I wonder what hedging he did ?

PaceAdvantage
08-17-2009, 01:57 AM
I don't know...I kinda like it...been having a lot of fun lately as a matter of fact...:lol:

Can't wait to get up there....

jonnielu
08-17-2009, 07:10 AM
My 2 cents - the racing sucks.
It is the worst meet I have ever seen.

I played a couple of days and after Saturday, want no part of it at all.
I vote for going back to 4 weeks and cut out the crap races, which are about 80% so far.

If I hadn't paid for my hotel already, I would cancel my trip there this week.
I just downloaded Thursday's card and it is a miserable card of crap racing at it's worse. I will be NOT be playing the SPA races while I am there - only simulcast races. This is going to be more of a social visit than anything. I tell you this, this is my last year of Toga, as it is with all of NYRA in general.

Bring on Presque Isle Downs.......

Hell Tom,

Just let TLG do the work, if a horse looks sharp in the paddock and TLG spends 15 seconds explaining that he doesn't want any part of it, run to the window.

jdl

RichieP
08-17-2009, 07:31 AM
Hell Tom,

Just let TLG do the work, if a horse looks sharp in the paddock and TLG spends 15 seconds explaining that he doesn't want any part of it, run to the window.

jdl

I will never understand why it is necessary to demean someone working for the good on racing's behalf (or in any other walk of life for that matter)

Tom
08-17-2009, 07:31 AM
I may just play his picks. He did pretty good Saturday.
All given out before the race, by name and number.

I actually found myself playing all the FL races and basically ignoring the Toga races Saturday at the track.

Tom
08-17-2009, 07:33 AM
TLG did pretty good Saturday...all picked and identified before the race ran.
You should try it some time, Jon. :rolleyes:

Richie, you going to be there Sunday?
I can't wait for Thursday - 4-5 maiden races, a turf spring, a hurdles race....Woo Hoo! Racing's best! :bang:

cj
08-17-2009, 08:15 AM
Put $2k into the p6 today and had 3 live ones (around 55-$69k s), going into the last but came up empty in one of those lovely 5 1/2 F turf sprints. Tough game. p6 paid $119k. I wonder what hedging he did ?

He did have 5/6 three times, so I imagine he got most of his money back even without a hedge.

classhandicapper
08-17-2009, 08:48 AM
He did have 5/6 three times, so I imagine he got most of his money back even without a hedge.

Kind of rough to not have the Pick 6 when the favorite wins the the race you missed. Though IMO, that was not the easiest favorite to come up with. I played that race and didn't use that horse either. I had the 2nd and 3rd place finishers.

jonnielu
08-17-2009, 10:25 AM
I will never understand why it is necessary to demean someone working for the good on racing's behalf (or in any other walk of life for that matter)

I'll never understand how you can point that out to people repeatedly, and they think you are demeaning someone. Go figure.

jdl

jonnielu
08-17-2009, 11:00 AM
TLG did pretty good Saturday...all picked and identified before the race ran.
You should try it some time, Jon. :rolleyes:

Richie, you going to be there Sunday?
I can't wait for Thursday - 4-5 maiden races, a turf spring, a hurdles race....Woo Hoo! Racing's best! :bang:

I've done it everyday of the meet so far, just because you don't want to understand that I personally make betting decisions at 2 MTP is not a very good reason to demean me and the way I do things.

The horses that I did put out at 12:30 PM for that 3rd race, you would take them as a top 3, happened to be the same as TLG's. My physical update at 3MTP included 3 warmup stars, along with a second of TLG's comments that this race is wide open.

Since all of that was true, anyone that is quick with 2 + 2 could have just slapped my paddock star, #3 on a superfecta box ticket along with the top 3 that finished 2nd,3rd, and 4th.

If TLG hadn't pointed out #3 in the paddock, you might have missed it, because the horse was fairly settled on the track, another positive in this particular case.

I don't like TLG just as much as the next guy, but, if you can't put personalities aside to avail yourself of what someone does have to offer, you aren't playing very smart. I don't care who you are, or what your particular bent is, a different perspective is very valuable because it is one that you are not in line with. No one can look at a race from all angles at the same time.

If you think that is demeaning to someone, you are proving the point.

jdl

Tom
08-17-2009, 11:56 AM
I am not demeaning you - I am calling you chicken!

OK, 2 min to post - you can STILL get them on record.
Tweet them to someone....but until you do, you are talksie and TLG is walksie.

Tom
08-17-2009, 12:38 PM
Not that there's anything wrong with that. :rolleyes: