EXACTA PAYOUTS

[punteray]

Is there a formula(s) to compute the probable payout of an exacta based on the horses odds?

Ray Scalise

[markgoldie]

Try this thread. http://www.paceadvantage.com/forum/showthread.php?t=58465&highlight=exacta+probables

[46zilzal]

Since the exotics are a TOTALLY DIFFERENT POOL there is often no correlations between the win odds and the exotic payouts.

Years ago at old Bowie, before the exotic payouts were shown on the TV screens, in a race where two horses shared a common name (i.e. My Pro and Our Pro) many hooked this up together as a "hunch bet" and in the win pool they were soemthing like 12/1 and 6/1 respectively. They ran one two and the exotic payout was really low, around $34.00 and there was a near riot, yet that was the real payout in the exotic pool.

[ryesteve]

Since the exotics are a TOTALLY DIFFERENT POOL there is often no correlations between the win odds and the exotic payouts.
That's a pretty extreme statement. There will ALWAYS be correlation between the win odds and the exotic payouts... the question is how much correlation, and which one is the more efficient pool.

[46zilzal]

That's a pretty extreme statement. There will ALWAYS be correlation between the win odds and the exotic payouts... the question is how much correlation, and which one is the more efficient pool.
Always????

I sat two days with the head of the Canadian Parimutuel Agency ( and viewed his computer following the betting) and he showed me that is NOT the case all the time but you can believe what you want as his algorithms, reflecting all the off track betting that day, showed what I stated: they are OFTEN mutually exclusive to one another as many large bets in one pool are not reflected in the other at all.

[ryesteve]

Always????Yes. I believe your impression of what "no correlation" means isn't accurate. You will never see pools such that the win pool and the exacta pool are unrelated. Even if mass hysteria broke out and caused the public to bet a race completely irrationally, there are so many other people monitoring pools in search of what they believe are inefficiencies, there would be a massive correction in the last minute of betting, thus eliminating the random relationship between the two pools.

[Tom]

What was the coefficient of correlation for that pool you were shown?

[Greyfox]

Over 1,000 races there will be a positive correlation between odds and exactas.

Having said that, I once saw a friend win an exacta.
The winner paid $ 75.00 and change.
The second place horse paid $ 15.00 or so.
The $ 1 exacta payout was a mere $ 78.00.
We thought that maybe the computer guys had missed a decimal.
Yes they are independent pools.
Yes there are anomalies like the one I showed above.
But Yes - the correlation will be positive.

[punteray]

THANKS LOADS!!!!:)

That did the trick

Ray

[Pace Cap'n]

Always????

I sat two days with the head of the Canadian Parimutuel Agency ( and viewed his computer following the betting) and he showed me that is NOT the case all the time but you can believe what you want as his algorithms, reflecting all the off track betting that day, showed what I stated: they are OFTEN mutually exclusive to one another as many large bets in one pool are not reflected in the other at all.

Sample size??

[46zilzal]

Sample size??
The regulator explained that the two pools are OFTEN, his words, Often not correlated particularly when it comes in off site.

In this jurisdiction, that occurred more with harnes wagering than T-bred

This man has worked the numbers for years and I don't think he would make it up

[Tom]

The regulator explained that the two pools are OFTEN, his words, Often not correlated particularly when it comes in off site.

In this jurisdiction, that occurred more with harnes wagering than T-bred

This man has worked the numbers for years and I don't think he would make it up

Cof C?

[ryesteve]

This man has worked the numbers for years and I don't think he would make it upI don't think he's making it up either... I think he's mischaracterizing the data, and you're misunderstanding what he's saying.

Phrases like "particularly when it comes in off-site" doesn't even make sense in the context of what we're talking about. We're talking about >the pool<, not the 80 bucks some random hub might be contributing to it.

[PaceAdvantage]

46 sometimes has trouble with obvious concepts. Like the time in that thread about Genetic Algorithms, when he went into a rant about genomes and breeding traits and all sorts of stuff related to actual horse breeding and DNA. :lol:

That's why I often wonder aloud if he isn't some grand A.I. experiment clearly stuck in the beta test stage....

[Bruddah]

that's why I often wonder aloud if he isn't some grand A.I. experiment clearly stuck in the beta test stage....[/QUOTE]

And I thought he was Mr Data of Star Trek fame, with infected machine oil coursing through his veins. Urr uh tubing! :eek:

[proffdw]

hi.as i understand it the exacta payoffs are determined
by the odds on the two horses.i don't know about the
correlation between the two pools. i have a little basic
ptogram that tells what an exacta should pay then you bet if it's paying more than it should.i know it works,as
i tried it many times some years ago when the racingchannel website was free.they showed the tote
board with the M/L,and each flash of the odds just like
at the track,so about 3 minutes to post i would write down the odds on all the horses,then when the race was over i would see what the exacta paid with two horses
that made up the exacta,then i would compare it to
what the exacta should pay to see if it was an overlay.
i don't have a laptop,so i can't take the program to the
track,and it takes too much time to do it by hand.and i
don't believe in betting online or by phone,the same
as i don't believe the new software programs should be made where a person has to by the info from BRIS,or
some other place.when i first started betting any
software i ever saw the data was put in. i had no
problem with that.it's seems to me like the software
makers might get kickback from the data people.the
same,as with televion sets.and cars,even if you know
how to fix them you can't because they're made,so you
have to have a repairman fix them.i know because my nephew could fix any part of any car in the old days,
but now he can't even work on his own.well i hope this helps d stevens

[ryesteve]

hi.as i understand it the exacta payoffs are determined
by the odds on the two horses.No, they're not... but as best as I can make out, the rest of your post indicates you understand that they're two separate pools.

[ryesteve]

That's why I often wonder aloud if he isn't some grand A.I. experiment clearly stuck in the beta test stage....Yeah, all these years and he's still flunking the Turing Test :D

[Cratos]

That's a pretty extreme statement. There will ALWAYS be correlation between the win odds and the exotic payouts... the question is how much correlation, and which one is the more efficient pool.

You are correct, the wagering efficiency of the bettors in mutuel pool shows how good the bettors are in identifying the favorite(s) in the pool. The better that they are, the more closely related is the WPS pools to the exotic pools.

However from a racetrack management point of view this can be a problem because when favorites win generally there are many winners which distributes more money among bettors to re-bet and when there is a large exotic payoff the track management will have good publicity, but in reality very few winners to re-bet.

[ryesteve]

However from a racetrack management point of view this can be a problem because when favorites win generally there are many winners which distributes more money among bettors to re-bet and when there is a large exotic payoff the track management will have good publicity, but in reality very few winners to re-bet.Not just that, it also seems as if the lower the payout, the more breakage the track gets to keep...

[punteray]

I am mystified!!!!!!!!:confused: :mad:


How does a "simple "question turn into a pissing contest?:(

Ray Scalise

[ryesteve]

I am mystified!!!!!!!!:confused: :mad:


How does a "simple "question turn into a pissing contest?:(

Well, I'm kinda mystified as to where you see a pissing contest here, since those are usually characterized by a lack of actual facts, along with a tone a lot nastier than anything I see in this thread...

[PaceAdvantage]

I am mystified!!!!!!!!:confused: :mad:


How does a "simple "question turn into a pissing contest?:(

Ray ScalisePissing contests usually involve people trying to one-up another...louder and louder...nastier and nastier...

No real pissing contest here...I don't think anyway....