IBF2 Picks for Wednesday 7/15

[CBedo]

20 possible plays before scratches for Wednesday for the "Inspired By Formula 2002" Model:

Track Race Prgrm# Horse Dist Class
ASD 1 1 ALACAZAR 6 OC15000NW2X
ASD 4 2 FABULICIOUS 8 MC5000
ASD 6 7 ST. BLAINE'S QU 6 Clm5000NW2L
ASD 8 1 SHE'S BAQ 6 Clm5000NW2L
CT 1 8 RUNAWAY CIDE 4.5 Clm6000NW3LX
CT 2 7 BAJANBEE 8.5 MC5000
CT 4 2 ONE BOLD WEST 4.5 Alw29000NW3L
CT 7 5 SEA DUBAI 4.5 OC45000NW2$6M
EVD 3 10 KING'S ST. STAT 5 MC10000
IND 2 4 TONIA BABY 5.5 MC5000
IND 8 5 GRANIZO 5.5 Clm5000
MTH 1 2 MEADOW BLUE 8.3 Clm7500
MTH 3 1 CALABRIA 6 StrAlw30000
PEN 4 9 KARMA CHECK 6 Clm12500NW2L
PEN 6 10 TURN TO THE KIN 8.3 Clm5000NW3L
PEN 8 11 WILDERNESS FORC 6 MC10000
PID 7 2 A LITTLE WILD 6 OC40000NW1$6M
SUF 2 7 SHABACCHI 6 Clm5000NW2L
SUF 3 5 FIVE AFTERNOONS 6 Clm25000NW2L
SUF 5 2 BORACAY WONDER 8.3 Clm5000NW2L
PEN in my studies, has not been a very good performer. The samples are still small, so I'm going to leave these plays in, but I just wanted to make note of my preliminary findings (hopefully providing the reverse jinx effect getting some nice Penn National winners! haha).

Hopefully, I won't be posting the results for Wednesday until late, as I'll be playing in a qualifier tournament (that I qualified for, hehe) for a Heartland Poker Tour Event being held here in Colorado this weekend. I will try to get results posted as soon as I get home from qualifying (thinking positive) or busting out (thinking realistically). This also means that I probably won't be able to note additional qualified plays that I would see when I normally check scratches (not sure what time I'm headed to the poker room, so I might catch some early).

Good luck to all on Wednesday!

[formula_2002]

20 possible plays before scratches for Wednesday for the "Inspired By Formula 2002" Model:

wow.... I hope it works out for you.

good luck

[CBedo]

We might have to change the name of this model to the Tuesday/Wednesday special!

1 scratch at ASD left us with 19 plays today (no addtional plays added after scratches). Of the 19, 11 won (57.9%) with only two running out of the money (89.5% itm%). This was obviously a nutty good day, lol. As I've said before, I have been striving for about 36% win rate. So far, consistency has not been the word for this model, but hopefully, we will get enough plays to help even out the bumps along the way.

19 bets is $38 wagered. Today the model returned $68.40 for a whopping 80% return. :ThmbUp::ThmbUp: Again today there were no huge bombs, just a steady stream of mostly low priced horses with the highest payoff being 12.60.

The >2/1 horses again outpeformed gonig 5/8 (62.5%) and returning $42.20 for the $16 bet which account for much of the outperformance of the overall model again today.

And of course, since I made sure to disclaimer the Penn picks, they went 2/3 with a 3.40 and an 8.00 winner. :bang:

Lastly, I won my entry into the $1650 Heartland Poker Tour event here in Colorado this weekend. :jump: I have landed in flight 1A which is Friday night, at 7:00 PM mountain time, so I guess there won't be any Friday night Hollywood Park pick 4 for me this week!

[CBedo]

For the last six days, we have had 156 plays with 55 winners (35.3%) The return has been 346.20 which is up 11.0%. This definitely above expectations (the win percentage seems about right). The last couple days have been well above expectations with regards to the higher priced horses.

For those horses that went off at >2/1, there were 75 possible bets (just under half of the overall model). 20 winners (26.7%) have returned 214.5 (about 2/3 of the model's total return) for a whopping 43% return on investment.

Good luck to everyone for Thursday!

I'll have the preliminary picks up sometime soon if my brain doesn't completely shut down (mental exhaustion from poker?....not good).

[formula_2002]

well done in both regards (racing and poker).
keep posting and good luck

[formula_2002]

1 scratch at ASD left us with 19 plays today (no addtional plays added after scratches).
ct r1 also scratched, leaving 18 plays.

[Canarsie]

Congrats on the poker win :jump: and a job well done with the picks. I played a few exactas just winging it off the board after seeing you heat up and it became a profitable night. :ThmbUp:


Maybe I should stop using a the DRF or Bris :bang: :lol:

[CBedo]

ct r1 also scratched, leaving 18 plays.Oops, sorry about that. What happened was that that the 8 did scratch, but with his scratch, it elevated the 1 Disco Music to being a play (who won and paid a whopping 4.40). I just checked the race numbers and not the actual horses last night when I got back from playing cards. I will remove that winner from the tally, since "viewers" couldn't have had it obviously.

So for the day without it, we were 10/18 (55.6%) with a 64 dollar return for the 36 bet (77.8% roi). The over 2/1 doesn't change. The week to date numbers are now 34.8% winners and a 10.3% roi on 155 bets.

You scared me for a minute though. I thought my results imports were messed up. I'm glad it was me, not the program, lol. I don't want to be fraudulent!

Thanks for catching that (and good to know, someone is actually paying attention!)

Good luck today.