IBF2 Picks for Tuesday 7/14

[CBedo]

25 prescratch possible bets for Tuesday.

Track Race Program# Horse Dist Class
ASD 5 2 TONY'S LIL POLL 6 Clm3000NW16MX
FE 1 6 RIDE'EMCANDY 6 MC10000
FL 5 9 TWISTED KEY 6 Clm4000NW16M
FL 6 5 CODE'S DESTINY 5.5 OC10000NW1X
FL 8 6 INSTANT LADY 5.5 OC15000NW3BX
FP 4 4 RED RIVER AGGIE 6 OC8000NW2X
FP 7 1 NAFIR'S LAD 5.5 Clm4000NW3L
IND 2 11 FELIZA'S DREAM 6 Clm10000NW3L
IND 12 6 CANDID IMAGE 8.3 StrAlw14000
MNR 5 3 BUDDHA'S MISTIQ 6 Clm5000NW2Y
MNR 8 4 NATIVE DRESS 5.5 Clm5000NW3Y
PHA 1 1 PAINTED CLOWN 5 Clm7500NW6M
PHA 2 7 LEAVE IT TO CLE 7 Clm5000NW6M
PNL 1 3 SEPTEMBERSHALFM 6 Clm8000
PNL 3 7 RED PLAYS ROUGH 5 Clm5000NW3L
PNL 7 3 ALL I CAN GET 8 Clm16000
PNL 8 6 ALABAMA CLAY 5.5 Clm4000NW3Y+
PRM 1 3 MR UNTOUCHABLE 5.5 Clm12500NW2L
PRM 5 1 ENGLISH TOFFEE 6 MC12500
PRM 6 4 CLASH OF ARMS 5.5 Clm15000NW3L
PRM 8 3 DES MOINES 6 OC25000NW2X
SUF 6 2 SEACLIPSEOFTHEM 8 Clm6250
YAV 6 6 MISS DAISY MAE 6 Clm2500NWL
YAV 8 7 BENCHMARK PIRAT 5.5 MC3500
YAV 9 5 VIA CARI 5.5 MC3500

[CBedo]

1 cancellation (at ASD), and no additional bets after scratches meant 24 bets for the day today. Of the 24, we had 10 winners (41.7%) and another 8 in the money for 75% ITM% today. The ratio of winners to ITM is more in the arena that I had been expecting, but obviously the win% was higher than the 34-36% seen in testing (I'm not complaining!) :ThmbUp:

24 bets means $48 bet. Total return for the day was $69.90 for a 45.6% return for the day.

The outperformance for the day came mostly as a result of the greater than 2/1 horses. 1/2 of our bets went off at >2/1. Of the 12 bets, 7 won (58.3%--about double what I would have expected). The $24 bet returned $60 for a 150% return on investment today. Unlike the other days where these have outperformed, there wasn't a huge bomb that skewed the results. The biggest payoff was 12.20, but having 7 hits with 5 between 7ish and the 12ish range provided a huge kick.

5 days into our little experiment we have now made 137 bets ($274 bet) and had 44 winners (32.1%). Today's stellar performance dug us out our hole and got the total return to +1.4%.

The >2/1 group was about break even coming into the day and after our 12 bets today, we've had 67 horses go off at greater than 2/1 with 15 winning (22.4%) which might be a slightly lower win percentage than I had hoped, but it is not out of the realm of possibility. The return on those 67 horses would be +172.10, up 28.4%.

I'll post these for at least two more days to get us through a full week of bets. After that, we'll see what happens. I see that the post is getting lots of views. I hope that many of you who take a look will take the time to comment or ask questions about the model, the picks, expectations or whatever else crosses your mind.

Good luck tomorrow to all! :)

[ryesteve]

I hope that many of you who take a look will take the time to comment or ask questions about the model
Nice rebound...

I know F_2002 is using JCapper output as the basis (or at least a prime component) of his model... what starting point are you using?

[CBedo]

Nice rebound...

I know F_2002 is using JCapper output as the basis (or at least a prime component) of his model... what starting point are you using?Thanks, I don't expect to have lots of days this good (but I didn't expect lots of days as bad as the last couple either, hehe). It's amazing that you can look at a model for a couple months or more of data and then still be surprised by results or subsets being well outside of your imagined parameters.

As far as the foundation of the model, it's home grown. I am using the TSN ProCaps files and then doing some tranformation to their numbers. There's nothing in my model that's not public, but just what I'd call "hidden" numbers--transformed versions of their numbers. This particular model is actually pretty simplistic, only a combination of a couple of ranking factors mostly based on early pace and overall ability and then a few filters.