Virginia Derby

[RockHardTen1985]

11th Race. (C10) Post 5:59PM The 12th Running of STAKES
The Virginia Derby (Grade II)
$750,000 Guaranteed
Purse $750,000 Guaranteed 1 1/4 Miles(Turf)
FOR THREE YEAR-OLDS.
1 AFFIRMATIF (L) '06 C 117 DeCarlo, C Wertheimer and Frere Pletcher, T
2 FLORENTINO (JPN) (L) '06 C 121 Garcia, A Darley Stable McLaughlin, K
3 TAKE THE POINTS (L) '06 C 117 Prado, E Starlight Partners Pletcher, T
4 NICANOR (L) '06 C 117 Lezcano, J Lael Stables Matz, M
5 SAFETY VALVE (L) '06 C R18 117 Camacho, E Hillwood Stable LLC Jenkins, R
6 STRAIGHT STORY (L) '06 C 117 Lopez, C Santulli, R Goldberg, A
7 HOLD ME BACK (L) '06 C 117 Desormeaux, K WinStar Farm LLC Mott, W
8 EL CRESPO (L) '06 C 121 Leparoux, J Humphrey, Jr., G Arnold, II, G
9 BATTLE OF HASTINGS (L) '06 G 121 Baze, T House, M Mullins, J
10 LIME RICKEY (L) '06 C 117 Velasquez, C Dogwood Stable Alexander, F

I think this field is loaded. Should be a great race, I will take 4,7. Tons of early speed, but Im thinking Nicanor will rate and he will have to. If Hold Me Back runs back to either poly race he will closing like a train and will have tons of pace to run at.

[joanied]

OHMY:eek: I also picked 4 & 7...before I even noticed your picks... really...

Nicanor can rate and I just like Hold Me Back with Kent D & Mott...should be a great race:jump:
I take: :4:
:7:
:3:
:10:

[OTM Al]

That is a nice field. Do not sell El Crespo short

[RockHardTen1985]

I was always high on El Crespo, I even bet him in the Holy Bull, but I realize now I was wrong about him. He is simply not that good.

His last 3 have been total disapointments, especially his last 2. Good trips both times and just had no punch. The Horse who blew him away 2 back,came back to bomb at odds on this past Saturday. Last time out he sat close to Florentino and is supposed to be good enough to pass him with that trip. Its not like he was closing from last. I really dont think he is much horse. He has a maiden win and a perfect trip Grade 3 win where he was all out vs a bad field of 6. His main rival that day is also a bit overated.

[Watcher]

How about the leg 1 winner Battle of Hastings?

[RockHardTen1985]

I dont like him at all. At his expected price he is my first toss.
He kinda had everything go his own way last time. What was Kent D doing on Al Khali ? Also Straight Story kinda drifts and Hastings gets a dream run. Not even just that, I just dont think he's fast enough the new faces look more logical. Im also a big Straight Story fan and dont give him much of a chance either.

[miesque]

The field actually turned out a little better then I was initially anticipating. I will be at Colonial Downs on Saturday for the race, if anyone else is going to be there and would like to say "Hello" (especially HANA Members), please shoot me a PM.

[PaydayKp]

colonial downs is my local track and i cannot wait. after seeing take the points up close i am very high on him and battle o.h. was very tough also. but even with the huge class upgrade im all over nicanor and hopefully will get some price on hime because this is a very competitive field. with affirmatif looking sharp and hold me back coming, it is really wide open. im a little dissapointed that prado is jumping off nicanor to ride take the points. prado has been nicanors regular jock so this goes against my angle that if the reg jock goes then i go so we will see.

[RockHardTen1985]

Prado rode Nicanor once. It was his worst career effort.
At this stage of his career Lezcano is better then Prado.

[PaydayKp]

good call pointgiven. thanks for pointing that out to me...that puts me a lil more at ease. im thinking nicanor will float from 7/2 maybe up to 5-1 or so? with all these good horses loading up i can see money being poured in on all of the field.

[FantasticDan]

I'm thinking the ML on Nicanor will be something like 8 or 10-1, and he'll probably go off at something like 7-2. Does that sound ridiculous?

[RockHardTen1985]

It sounds a bit off. Someone will offer value in here, they all cant get bet. It kinda sucks for me, because I am sold on Nicanor and Hold Me Back and I get the feeling those 2 will be bet.

[bitter]

I'm thinking the ML on Nicanor will be something like 8 or 10-1, and he'll probably go off at something like 7-2. Does that sound ridiculous?


sounds about right, maybe just a tad bit low. every time this horse has ever gone to the gate he gets thumped at the window. NOW, is the time for all the non believers to fade him. HUGE step up, you know he's gonna see action at the window and there is a lot more value in this race. Don't really care too much for Battle of Hasting either, the Nx1 horse actually came again at the finish line on him last out

[foz1210]

great race on paper with these entries. Desormeux and Mott on the turf must always be respected, but watchout for Lime Rickey. He is stepping up in class but has run some good races and has a good running style for this race because there is some speed in here and he has a good closing kick. He will be a big price because of all the talent in here. :10: to the bank with the :7: and the :4:

[FantasticDan]

I'm thinking the ML on Nicanor will be something like 8 or 10-1, and he'll probably go off at something like 7-2. Does that sound ridiculous?
Guess it was ridiculous.. Nic is the ML favorite at 7-2!

http://www.bloodhorse.com/horse-racing/articles/51660/nicanor-favored-for-virginia-derby

[miesque]

Nicanor is going to be obscenely overbet on Saturday, especially when consider that even just a 10 second glance at the PPs will show there is no shortage of horses in the field who have been running on the front end or just off it, which is what Nicanor did in his two wins and he is stepping up in class to boot.

[RockHardTen1985]

Nicanor is 7-2 morning line chalk. Off of his last 2 turf beyers, I dont think the line is that far off.

[bitter]

Nicanor is 7-2 morning line chalk. Off of his last 2 turf beyers, I dont think the line is that far off.

considering that those last 2 came off of a MSW and a N1X field..... IMO, yes, its far off. he's now running against horses with more then 1 win and graded stakes under their belt.


in a way i'm glad they line maker put him as the chalk, hopefully he takes a ton of money. On the flip side, i'm not even high in Battle of Hasting, but at 4-1 how can you not be

[cj]

Nicanor's turf debut Beyer is suspect at best, and probably off quite a bit. It is too high.

[RockHardTen1985]

Nicanor's turf debut Beyer is suspect at best, and probably off quite a bit. It is too high.


Is that your own opinion ? I thought he ran huge, and then came back and bounced a bit. He should be primed for big effort this time.

[cj]

Well, of course it is my opinion, but it isn't just some random opinion I made up from watching the race. There was another race ran that day on the turf at Delaware the was given a much different, slower variant. It made no sense at the time, and when he came back and ran much "slower", it made even less sense.

I will also say that if the Beyer of 104 is correct, the pace figure for the race would have been about 117. I have a VERY hard time believing the horse was capable of that monster effort.

I have his two turf races as such:

107 pace, 94 speed at 1 1/16 miles.
109 pace, 88 speed at 1 1/8 miles.

Now he is going 1 1/4 miles with plenty other speed in the reace. Good luck with that one. He doesn't appear to be one that rations his speed very well, especially on turf.

[RockHardTen1985]

I just think your kinda throwing things out. Beyer changes numbers all the time, if it was wrong I think they would have looked at it and changed it.
Thats really not the point though. I just started the thread because I thought it was a nice group of horses and could be a good betting race, I like Nicanor, but maybe not at 3-1. They cant all get bet, someone has to drift up. It might end up being Todd's horse. It almost seems like everyone could get bet in this spot, besides the local horse, most ppl could make a case for anyone. I thought it was a bit easier, I like only 2. I could be wrong, we will see on Saturday.

[ryesteve]

I just think your kinda throwing things out. Beyer changes numbers all the time, if it was wrong I think they would have looked at it and changed it.
I think most people around here would trust cj's figs over whatever gets printed in the PPs.

Maybe you want to read the board a bit before making comments like that?

[RockHardTen1985]

I think most people around here would trust cj's figs over whatever gets printed in the PPs.

Maybe you want to read the board a bit before making comments like that?

Why dont you fill me in, please.

[ryesteve]

Why dont you fill me in, please.All I'm saying is, if you don't want to continue looking foolish, take the time to figure out who's who around here before voicing the opinion that someone is "just kinda throwing things out there"

[RockHardTen1985]

Ok.
Who is he ?

[ryesteve]

Never mind... just carry on...

[PaydayKp]

its probably my own wishful thinking but i do think horses like el cresp, take the points and hold me back will be bet big on. nicanor will go off at 4-1 or 7/2. battle of hastings has proven himself and lime rickey seems he'es always on the board. if nicanor does run big then he will be 3/5 bound for the rest of his turf career until he steps back on dirt

[RockHardTen1985]

I normally dont look at what jock is on/off, but Decarlo on Affirmitif does not make much sense. Its a huge negative IMO that JV does not take the mount in this big money race. Decarlo is also named on mounts at Delaware on Saturday, so maybe JV ends up here.

[joanied]

Ok.
Who is he ?

cj :ThmbUp:

[miesque]

I think that most of us will at least agree based on the conversation on this thread that the Virginia Derby should at the very least be a decent betting race and with the divergent opinions expressed on this thread, if you are correct in your assesments then the payouts should be at least relatively lucrative.

[jefftune]

My selections:

NICANOR
BATTLE OF HASTINGS
LIME RICKEY

-jeff tune
www.angelfire.com/pa/tune (http://www.angelfire.com/pa/tune)

[FantasticDan]

PPs:

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/toddpletcher_156125.pdf

[DJofSD]

http://www.brisnet.com/bris_link/pdfs/darley_156103.pdf

[jonnielu]

I normally dont look at what jock is on/off, but Decarlo on Affirmitif does not make much sense. Its a huge negative IMO that JV does not take the mount in this big money race. Decarlo is also named on mounts at Delaware on Saturday, so maybe JV ends up here.

So which horse is Prado jumping off Nicanor for? Is that one that he has ridden in the past? That could be significant.

jdl

[ManeMediaMogul]

I dont like him at all. At his expected price he is my first toss.
He kinda had everything go his own way last time. What was Kent D doing on Al Khali ? Also Straight Story kinda drifts and Hastings gets a dream run. Not even just that, I just dont think he's fast enough the new faces look more logical. Im also a big Straight Story fan and dont give him much of a chance either.

Actually, Battle of Hastings' "dream run" as you call it was on the absolutely worst part of the course. He put in an amazing performance as horses were mired on the rail all afternoon.

As far as being fast enough, he has my best turf figure in the race. There are several contenders close to him but I don't think he should be summarily dismissed as he is the only two-time graded stakes winner in the field.

He has continued to train well and a big effort can be expected.

The price is another factor. He might be too short to bet, as I make his fair odds 4/1 and he is likely to be 5/2 or less.

[cj's dad]

Off topic but those of you attending who have not been to CD on VD day,
bet early and hope they don't have 10 cent supers

[miesque]

Off topic but those of you attending who have not been to CD on VD day,
bet early and hope they don't have 10 cent supers

Good advice and also be prepared for a rather large number of people who haven't a clue about what they are doing from a wagering perspective (which incidentially makes it a great card to bet if you do actually do your homework).

[cj's dad]

Good advice and also be prepared for a rather large number of people who haven't a clue about what they are doing from a wagering perspective (which incidentally makes it a great card to bet if you do actually do your homework).

The primary reason for the bet early advice.

One other- if you see a line with young couples (college age) ahead of you , GET OUT IMMEDIATELY !!

[bitter]

Off topic but those of you attending who have not been to CD on VD day,
bet early and hope they don't have 10 cent supers


yeah i'm partying on "the hill" so there should be no rift rafts over there :rolleyes:

[Spendabuck85]

Nicanor has been scratched from tomorrow's Virginia Derby at Colonial Downs due to a physical issue.

http://www.timesdispatch.com/rtd/sports/equestrian/polo_horse_racing_rodeo/article/NICANOR17GATER_20090717-095601/280563/

[Doc]

Damn! I was looking forward to all the money flowing onto Nicanor from his obsessive followers, giving me a decent price on Battle of Hastings. This ruins my day.

[Si2see]

Damn! I was looking forward to all the money flowing onto Nicanor from his obsessive followers, giving me a decent price on Battle of Hastings. This ruins my day.

You and me both sir !!

[miesque]

Damn! I was looking forward to all the money flowing onto Nicanor from his obsessive followers, giving me a decent price on Battle of Hastings. This ruins my day.

Seriously, I was looking forward to getting much more lucrative prices on Battle of Hastings and Hold Me Back (whom I consider to be the two most likely winners) because of Nicanor almost assuredly drawing a ridiculous share of funds from his overeager fans.

[Doc]

Okay, I just couldn't resist. Here's a comment from the Nicanor blog post, taken from the Blood-Horse's web site, that announced he's scratched. This is really, really disturbing:

oh my goodness, i felt my heart fall to my feet. with tears in my eyes, i know that the angels are watching you, darling nicky. sweetie you get better soon, you guys bring us so much awesome enjoyment. thank you michael and staff, ron for breaking the news to us. oh, and nicky, you can stay home with me tommorrow. love you big guy and tons of horsey hugs and mints, baby carrots.
sandieh 17 Jul 2009 11:47 AM
:ThmbDown:

[miesque]

Okay, I just couldn't resist. Here's a comment from the Nicanor blog post, taken from the Blood-Horse's web site, that announced he's scratched. This is really, really disturbing:

oh my goodness, i felt my heart fall to my feet. with tears in my eyes, i know that the angels are watching you, darling nicky. sweetie you get better soon, you guys bring us so much awesome enjoyment. thank you michael and staff, ron for breaking the news to us. oh, and nicky, you can stay home with me tommorrow. love you big guy and tons of horsey hugs and mints, baby carrots.
sandieh 17 Jul 2009 11:47 AM
:ThmbDown:


:lol: :lol: :lol:

That is just way too much. I have to yet again comment that I really hope that its a girl under the age of ten making that post, because otherwise its beyond sad, its downright tragic. I hate to say it, but those types of statements make me rather happy I am a such a cold hearted bitch instead of like that. :D

[Doc]

LOL, I'm with you, Miesque! :ThmbUp:

[rastajenk]

Sounds like a habitue of the Final Turn, or its evil twin Thoroughbred Champions, or something like that.

[point given]

Just about blew lunch after reading that sick post :blush: :faint:

[Doc]

You guys are the reason I like PA so much - great minds think alike! :ThmbUp:

[PaydayKp]

with nicanor out im gonna be siding wigth take the points. i think theturf cup set him up nice with a good prep and he will have plenty of pace to stalk. if he doesnt make a good move at the quater pole then hold me back or el crespo will

[Si2see]

I am going to play All with Lime Rickey in second. If they are off the turf again tomorrow ( it has rained hard here all day today ) then I will go home and hope to catch the two big races on tvg

[bishlap]

not a single local jockey listed there... i would love to have a john joyce or sheldon russel @ Col D

[RockHardTen1985]

Affirmitif appears to be the forgotten horse here that no one is talking about.

[WinterTriangle]

Seriously, I was looking forward to getting much more lucrative prices on Battle of Hastings and Hold Me Back (whom I consider to be the two most likely winners) because of Nicanor almost assuredly drawing a ridiculous share of funds from his overeager fans.

I'm hoping $ will go to BoH and HMB so my guys can win. :)

I can't resist Kiran/Garcia combo and I still believe in El Crespo. I like 2-8 / 9-10 / 5 (have a hunch about Safety Valve and putting him in a few places) Not entirely sure how i'm gonna set up this exotic yet.

[WinterTriangle]

Affirmitif appears to be the forgotten horse here that no one is talking about.

I got off him due to distance. Not sure he can get it. IF he does, I think he wins this. But I'm gonna let him beat me.

[sam i am]

I am going with the 6-1-3

[stu]

All 5 1/2 furlong outer turf races before the stakes are moved to the inner course. Race 12 stays on the outer turf course

News from the racing secretary via one of your placing judges.

Trying to save the outer for the Stakes.

[11cashcall]

My Money's on Straight Story:Goldberg has good % for 3rd off the shelf,horse
was eager in the lane despite being carried 8 wide.Latest workout affirms his current form.

[jonnielu]

I am going with the 6-1-3

#7 Hold Me Back, #10, #1

jdl

[slew101]

No. 2 Florintino on top for me, with No. 9 Battle of Hastings.

[Spendabuck85]

I hope you all enjoy the CBS coverage of the Virgina Derby as our local affiliate has decided not to air it.

[JustRalph]

Tyler Baze takes an Airplane ride and gets the money............

I love that kid............ :ThmbUp: :ThmbUp:

[joanied]

I'm late...but my reaction to that blog post about Nicanor...BARFO :ThmbDown: ...
but, hope it's not serious and the horse is gonna heal up OK....sure looked like we were gonna have a real nice grass horse to watch.

You all might be happy to know...Barbaro/Nicanor's dam is carrying a FILLY!!!!!!!