The Quest For Overlays

[markgoldie]

Every good handicapper (and that, of course, includes every member of this forum) realizes that the key to success is in finding overlays.

Recently, however, I have been struck by a couple of things regarding the overlaid horse. First, the most obvious overlays are by far the worst to bet. You see this quite often and it clearly has to do with intent of the animal. This is particularly true at the smaller venues, but even crops up at the larger tracks as well.

I guess the issue really is, when is a horse "dead on the board" and when is he a true overlay? The point I'm making is that if the overlay is obvious, then he's probably dead on the board.

I'm sure we all have times when we ask ourselves, "How can they let this horse go off at this (ie. high) price?" But as Dave Schwartz has pointed out over and over, "they" are not as dumb as we would hope.

Along these lines, I have found anecdotally that if the early wagering action is lacking on a horse, it is a particularly bad sign. This seems to lead to a scenario whereby the "value" bettors may kick in action late, possible even making the horse a fair-odds proposition by post time. These players may think they are betting a value price, but in fact may simply be part of the sucker money on the horse. I suppose the chartists would know far more about this than I would.

So what do you guys think? How do we insure that we are betting overlays when we could just as easily be betting into traps?? Any thoughts??

[JeremyJet]

That's why you need to keep records of your bets. Don't let the board get you off a horse if your past performance indicates your opinion is a valid one.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[Overlay]

I think it also helps if you can come up with a plausible explanation as to why one or more of the other entrants in the race may be getting overbet. Perhaps the public is going overboard on a handicapping factor that points to another horse, but that has less weight or influence than the public is giving it credit for.

Individual factors can also consistently produce win percentages that are higher than expected (given the odds of the horses possessing them) to a degree that is greater than can be accounted for by random variation. Building an odds-oriented approach around a weighted combination of multiple such factors can provide greater assurance that an overlay is the result of a genuine misjudgment on the part of the public.

[sjk]

I think you need to look at your own process to answer your own question.

While it seems to be true for most of those who make odds lines that the horses we make 3-1 and go off at 20-1 do not win as often as those that go off at 10-1, if you aggregate all horses in the first group, you should get as much or more ROI than with the second.

The public makes very good odds and if there is some factor that they are evaluating and incorporating into their process more effectively than you are you should try figure out how to fix that.

I would spend more time looking at how you can improve than on what is happening on the odds board.

[classhandicapper]

Every good handicapper (and that, of course, includes every member of this forum) realizes that the key to success is in finding overlays.

Recently, however, I have been struck by a couple of things regarding the overlaid horse. First, the most obvious overlays are by far the worst to bet. You see this quite often and it clearly has to do with intent of the animal. This is particularly true at the smaller venues, but even crops up at the larger tracks as well.

I guess the issue really is, when is a horse "dead on the board" and when is he a true overlay? The point I'm making is that if the overlay is obvious, then he's probably dead on the board.

I'm sure we all have times when we ask ourselves, "How can they let this horse go off at this (ie. high) price?" But as Dave Schwartz has pointed out over and over, "they" are not as dumb as we would hope.

Along these lines, I have found anecdotally that if the early wagering action is lacking on a horse, it is a particularly bad sign. This seems to lead to a scenario whereby the "value" bettors may kick in action late, possible even making the horse a fair-odds proposition by post time. These players may think they are betting a value price, but in fact may simply be part of the sucker money on the horse. I suppose the chartists would know far more about this than I would.

So what do you guys think? How do we insure that we are betting overlays when we could just as easily be betting into traps?? Any thoughts??

I pretty much agree with everything you said.

I think the best bets are when you can point out a horse that looks like an overlay and also UNDERSTAND WHY he's being neglected by the public.

[coach_lowe]

Very good topic.

I too agree with you Goldie when you say that the late money coming in on your "nugget" is very rarely a good sign. I am strictly a spot play value player, and I can tell you from my experience, you simply have to review your results and try to notice some trends. Of course there are exceptions daily, but over the long haul, you will benefit greatly. I know, because it took me losing a lot of money to finally figure this out. It's a lot of work, but it's worth it.

[post time]

very tough to grab overlays these days with internet and off track action seems like all the "smart" money comes in very late when all pools are joined together like to put the overlay in gimmicks for value

[fmolf]

very tough to grab overlays these days with internet and off track action seems like all the "smart" money comes in very late when all pools are joined together like to put the overlay in gimmicks for value
I do agree with you Mark as well.I think the crowd overbets certain factors and underbets others.Determining this in each race is the essence of handicapping.Is first off the claim worth 5/2 when the horse is 1.5 lengths slower than the 7/5 favorite?

[cmoore]

Overlays are in the eyes of the beholder. As you watch the races each day..Ask yourself. Who is the overlay in the race? Not who is the likely winner. But who's odds are higher then his or her chances. The more you look at races this way. The better off you'll be in the long run. Learn to use these horses in the exotics in 2nd, 3rd and 4th position. Barry Meadows exacta overlay chart can be used for 2nd position..The trifecta and superfecta are a little harder..I'm pretty damn good at finding the highest odds horse that finishes in the top 4 spots. I'm still working on betting strategies though.

I never worry about what the public bets..I pay no attention to it. Just the other day at Pleasanton. Baze was bet down to 9/5 or < on a first time starter. The sire was unknown to me and I threw him out completely. He ran out. The 10 cents super paid over 400 bucks. I had all positions positions filled but first. That's the breaks. Go with your decision and don't let the public sway you off even if a 10-1 ML horse goes up to 25-1 at post time..


Every good handicapper (and that, of course, includes every member of this forum) realizes that the key to success is in finding overlays.

Recently, however, I have been struck by a couple of things regarding the overlaid horse. First, the most obvious overlays are by far the worst to bet. You see this quite often and it clearly has to do with intent of the animal. This is particularly true at the smaller venues, but even crops up at the larger tracks as well.

I guess the issue really is, when is a horse "dead on the board" and when is he a true overlay? The point I'm making is that if the overlay is obvious, then he's probably dead on the board.

I'm sure we all have times when we ask ourselves, "How can they let this horse go off at this (ie. high) price?" But as Dave Schwartz has pointed out over and over, "they" are not as dumb as we would hope.

Along these lines, I have found anecdotally that if the early wagering action is lacking on a horse, it is a particularly bad sign. This seems to lead to a scenario whereby the "value" bettors may kick in action late, possible even making the horse a fair-odds proposition by post time. These players may think they are betting a value price, but in fact may simply be part of the sucker money on the horse. I suppose the chartists would know far more about this than I would.

So what do you guys think? How do we insure that we are betting overlays when we could just as easily be betting into traps?? Any thoughts??

[ranchwest]

If there are live overlays, there are very likely underlays, too. The more underlays that are unlikely to win, the better the bet on the live overlay is. Parimutuel odds are not based on one horse. Those odds are based on all horses.

[markgoldie]

Some good responses. One of the problems in deciding if a horse is a legitimate overlay or simply "dead on the board" is that there exists a very potent pipeline of information which circulates about horses and eminates from the animal's barn. Probably this has been discussed before on the forum (so if this is old news to you, please skip over), but it is a situation that I am most familar with.

The information pipeline regarding the physical condition and likely prospects of a horse comes from many different sources. Starting from the bottom, we have the grooms and hot walkers who work with the horses every day and know the animal's current physical (and even mental) condition. Many of these workers use and pass on this information for betting purposes. Next, we have the second trainers. Same information but with added knowledge of veterinary procedures and/or drug administration that may have been given to the horse prior to the race. As a juicy source of wagering info, many of these second-in-commands make a cash sideline living selling such info to large bettors. Then we have the trainers themselves who are constantly in a struggle to keep owners happy because the economics of the business is horrible for them and they are literally keeping the trainers financially alive. It is therefore in the best interest of these trainers to make sure that these owners only bet their money when their horse is physically ready to perform. Conversely, the trainer must make sure that the owner does NOT bet when the animal is questionable. This information, once given to the owner, is subject to wide disemination, as I should have said, is the info from previously mentioned pipelines. As for trainers, it is not unusual for them to give out information relative to a horse they are starting to OTHER owners in their barn, who have no precise interest in the horse in question, but whom the trainer wants to mollify for their financial support. Next, we have veterinarians. I have personally known of a number of veterinarians who have supplemented their income with upwards of 50k annual cash for diseminating info relative to horses they treat. If you are a substantial bettor, ask yourself what it would be worth to have the treatment logs for possibly a hundred or more horses who race on a regular basis. In short order, you know the (a) physical condition of the animal and (b) in many cases because of different "pre-race" drug treatments, you know the intent of the trainer with the animal. And an individual vet may have several such "wagering" clients. Even blacksmiths have valuable information on a horse's condition, since as the old saw goes, "No foot, no horse." Blacksmiths regularly shoe large groups of horses and are aware when a hoof condition is either worsening or getting better. Some of them parlay this knowledge into a well-timed wager (or lack of wager). This information is likewise subject to uncontrolled disemination.

The point of all this is simple: It's not so easy determining which overlay the bettors somehow just managed to overlook and my firm belief is that many of the overlays we play were not well meant from the start and that the cash we wagered might just have well been thrown into the toilet.

Mark

[Dave Schwartz]

First, a disclaimer. I have not read ALL of this thread... some at the beginning and some more at the end. If the point has passed me by, please forgive.


This pre-occupation that we all seem to have with the horse that is getting the action seems to me to be counter-productive.

Every study I have ever done of "over-bett-ed-ness" has shown me that the overbet horse wins far more races, but returns far less money in the long run.

In fact, again and again I have seen that I am better off with the underbet contender in the long run than the overbet one, despite the fact that the overbet one will pound me on a regular basis.


With that said, I will go back to my cloistered room and be quiet for awhile. (Though probably not THAT long.)


Dave

[wes]

Dave, sounds like you are cooking with a crock pot. Instead of a microwave. Most wants instant picks. Instead taking it slow and learning the process it takes to become a winner. Think about it when using any handicapping program as cooking with a crock pot.

wes

[offtrack]

A couple of comments...
Betting Action on an overlaid horse is a good thing, IMHO. Watching for a nibble in the odds during the pre-race period seems like confirmation that cash in some form has been put down. Betting Action may show in the straight pools, or the exotic pools. Of course too much BA may take you out of the overlay zone completely.

Keeping raceday records is such a great habit to start. Noting who you liked, and your decisions during the wagering period is truly a chance to handicap yourself.
A good handicapper can sometimes get on a horse a race too early. If your records indicate a follow up bet is warrented your prior raceday notes will have details others don't have.

[ryesteve]

Dave, sounds like you are cooking with a crock pot. Instead of a microwave. Most wants instant picks. Instead taking it slow and learning the process it takes to become a winner. Think about it when using any handicapping program as cooking with a crock pot.I don't disagree with this, but I have no idea how this relates at all to the discussion at hand.

Anyway, my 2 cents... you need to know why you're getting the price you're getting. I can't believe that nowadays you'll ever see an obvious mistake on the tote board. If a price is too good to be true, then I believe that it is. An "overlay" isn't really a horse that's going off at a price higher than you would've expected... it's a horse going off at a price higher than what corresponds to your assessment of his chances of winning, yet still in the range of what you expected the odds to be. In other words, your assessment is based on something the public is undervaluing, or is unaware of.

[Dave Schwartz]

Steve,

Exactly!


Dave

[JimG]

An "overlay" isn't really a horse that's going off at a price higher than you would've expected... it's a horse going off at a price higher than what corresponds to your assessment of his chances of winning, yet still in the range of what you expected the odds to be. In other words, your assessment is based on something the public is undervaluing, or is unaware of.

Very well said! Can't add much to it. As Michael Pizzolla would say, if you see a horse going off at a higher price than it should be using fundamental handicapping information, you must ask yourself "why am I the lucky one?"

[fmolf]

If trainers knew when their horse was going to win they would all be rich.I believe this is simply not the case.They may be able to tell someone "yes my horse seems to be ready to run a peak race",but so might 3 other horses in the race.Unless the farrior is shoeing every horse in the race how valuable is his info.maybe he can stop a bet or two if he has shod the favorite and knows he is hurting.The hot walkers and grooms...i have seen plenty at belmont and aqueduct betting but not too many cashing.Call me old school but i am not a believer in inside info.Just like the snake oil salesman selling can't miss systems guaranteed profits.If this info were so good why sell it they would be using it to win all of the money in the pools from us uninformed bettors.

[markgoldie]

If trainers knew when their horse was going to win they would all be rich.I believe this is simply not the case.They may be able to tell someone "yes my horse seems to be ready to run a peak race",but so might 3 other horses in the race.Unless the farrior is shoeing every horse in the race how valuable is his info.maybe he can stop a bet or two if he has shod the favorite and knows he is hurting.The hot walkers and grooms...i have seen plenty at belmont and aqueduct betting but not too many cashing.Call me old school but i am not a believer in inside info.Just like the snake oil salesman selling can't miss systems guaranteed profits.If this info were so good why sell it they would be using it to win all of the money in the pools from us uninformed bettors.
Please don't draw inferences from what I wrote that I had no intention of making. Of course trainers don't know for sure whether or not their horse will win. Nobody does. However, I think trainers have valuable information regarding the current form of the horses they train that you and I do not have. This can be particularly potent when it is NEGATIVE information regarding the prospects of a charge they are racing. So, you might reasonably ask, why would a trainer knowingly race a horse in a spot in which he does not believe the horse will perform well? There are number of reasons why this may happen. One is that he is being pointed for a later race. Another is simply the desire to keep the horse half tight until he can find a more favorable spot since certain horses are "bad" trainers in that they won't work out fast enough to keep themselves in any kind of race shape. Among the cheaper horses, trainers might race a horse just to keep the owner a bit happy since an owner who only pays bills and never sees one of his horses race is not a happy owner. Sometimes the trainer is just praying for a miracle when deep down if he admitted it, he would tell you that his horse is really in no kind of physical shape to win.

It is also worth something to know prior to a race that the trainer believes that his charge is in tip-top condition and ready to put forward his best effort. Does that mean he MUST win? Of course not.

Trainers, grooms, owners, etc. most certainly may have negative results with regard to their overall betting. However, clearly there are instances when their probability of having a better opinion than you about the realtive chances of one of their horses which they handle every day is rather high.

Mark

[fmolf]

Please don't draw inferences from what I wrote that I had no intention of making. Of course trainers don't know for sure whether or not their horse will win. Nobody does. However, I think trainers have valuable information regarding the current form of the horses they train that you and I do not have. This can be particularly potent when it is NEGATIVE information regarding the prospects of a charge they are racing. So, you might reasonably ask, why would a trainer knowingly race a horse in a spot in which he does not believe the horse will perform well? There are number of reasons why this may happen. One is that he is being pointed for a later race. Another is simply the desire to keep the horse half tight until he can find a more favorable spot since certain horses are "bad" trainers in that they won't work out fast enough to keep themselves in any kind of race shape. Among the cheaper horses, trainers might race a horse just to keep the owner a bit happy since an owner who only pays bills and never sees one of his horses race is not a happy owner. Sometimes the trainer is just praying for a miracle when deep down if he admitted it, he would tell you that his horse is really in no kind of physical shape to win.

It is also worth something to know prior to a race that the trainer believes that his charge is in tip-top condition and ready to put forward his best effort. Does that mean he MUST win? Of course not.

Trainers, grooms, owners, etc. most certainly may have negative results with regard to their overall betting. However, clearly there are instances when their probability of having a better opinion than you about the realtive chances of one of their horses which they handle every day is rather high.

Mark
obviously you are correct.Is this information worth paying for?My point is that you can probably glean the same information from the pp's.We all know the signs of an improving horse and a declining horse.Trainers run horses to fill races so another trainers horse can run..to do the track racing secretary a favor and fill his races for him....or so he does not lose his stall space.Personally i would not pay for any info of the sort, from grooms, farriors and trainers alike.I might pay for the veterinary records,now those would be helpful in my estimation,more so than other types of info from other backside sources.This info seems to me like it might be illegal if the vets were selling it?I do not know this to be fact though.

Frank

[markgoldie]

obviously you are correct.Is this information worth paying for?My point is that you can probably glean the same information from the pp's.We all know the signs of an improving horse and a declining horse.Trainers run horses to fill races so another trainers horse can run..to do the track racing secretary a favor and fill his races for him....or so he does not lose his stall space.Personally i would not pay for any info of the sort, from grooms, farriors and trainers alike.I might pay for the veterinary records,now those would be helpful in my estimation,more so than other types of info from other backside sources.This info seems to me like it might be illegal if the vets were selling it?I do not know this to be fact though.

Frank
It's clearly illegal in that it is a violation of veterinary/client privilege and none of them would ever admit to doing it. It's just that I happen to have firsthand knowledge that it can and does occur. Other than that, we have no disagreement except that the form notwithstanding, if I were going to bet say 3k on a horse that I liked BECAUSE of the form, using him on top and keying in gimmicks, I would like to know that since his last race he has been eating, acting, galloping, and training as well as he ever has; that he's not lame and possibly sounder than his last outing and that the trainer is expecting his best effort. Now, win lose or draw in the actual race, yeah, I would pay something for that info if it were verifiably correct; and I would consider it money well-spent. Does that mean that I'm an "info" junkie who does not believe in the science of rational handicapping? Nothing of the sort. It's just another piece of info to put into the equation and since it's not available to the general public, it's something of value that I would consider buying. That's all.

Mark

[fmolf]

It's clearly illegal in that it is a violation of veterinary/client privilege and none of them would ever admit to doing it. It's just that I happen to have firsthand knowledge that it can and does occur. Other than that, we have no disagreement except that the form notwithstanding, if I were going to bet say 3k on a horse that I liked BECAUSE of the form, using him on top and keying in gimmicks, I would like to know that since his last race he has been eating, acting, galloping, and training as well as he ever has; that he's not lame and possibly sounder than his last outing and that the trainer is expecting his best effort. Now, win lose or draw in the actual race, yeah, I would pay something for that info if it were verifiably correct; and I would consider it money well-spent. Does that mean that I'm an "info" junkie who does not believe in the science of rational handicapping? Nothing of the sort. It's just another piece of info to put into the equation and since it's not available to the general public, it's something of value that I would consider buying. That's all.

MarkThis is just stating the obvious but i believe that the higher the odds on the overlay the more of a chance he has of running to his odds.Info or no Info.Perhaps the inside Info might be more valuable when trying to determine if a 2/1 shot constitutes an overlay instead of that 8/1 shot.A 2/1 may be underbet because of a myriad of reasons,weak connections,poor post,another horse is made favorite because of strong jockey /trainer combo etc..etc.Mark would you not bet a horse that thru the pp's, on your odds line you made 5/1 and the public made him 9/1 if you had info from a groom that the horse is not feeling well?

[hue21998]

The best overlays I find are when the public over reacts to a situation or change. Example I was at OTB one day last year looking at Belmont. the 8-5 morning line favorite was certainly the best horse on paper and looked good in 2 previous races I had seen run by him. The Jock changed to another horse and migliore took the mount. that was the easiest $37 horse ive ever played winning by about 4. all the money moved with the jockey change.

[ryesteve]

I was at OTB one day last year looking at Belmont. the 8-5 morning line favorite was certainly the best horse on paper and looked good in 2 previous races I had seen run by him. The Jock changed to another horse and migliore took the mount. that was the easiest $37 horse ive ever played winning by about 4. all the money moved with the jockey change.
Even if they put Shaq on the horse, you wouldn't get $37 on a legit 8/5 shot.

Out of curiosity, I tried to find a Belmont horse last year that was 8/5 on the ML and paid a crazy win price, but I couldn't even find one that paid $6. So I tried looking for any Migliore winner, regardless of track. Couldn't find one there either. So I tried looking at 2007 too. None there either.

So I'm going to assume you were looking at the PPs for the wrong race.

[JackS]

Underlays and overbets are easier to find (for me) than overlays. Most of the time we see that the average favorite deserves his favoritism and it's his favoritism that must be judged. It seems pretty simple when the favorite is bet down to 1-1 and there are two or three horses that are absolutly going to compete. I normally take nothing away from this horse except his public prediction of his 50/50 chances to win. If I cannot get away from this horse then I must feel he can't be beat and therefor a single in a DD and I'll attempt to beat the favorite in the second half. If no DD then perhaps the beginning of a P3. Many of these types need to be played against but at times you must use them especially in parlays.