What have you learned lately?

[CBedo]

What have you learned recently (or had forgotten and recently had it reintroduced) that has helped improve your handicapping and your results?

I am constantly evolving (and sometimes devolving) as a handicapper, and am always learning (lots from you guys and gals here at PA) or trying to learn. I was thinking tonight about things I've come up with lately.

One thing I've learned lately is that jockeys suck! That's a bit of an overstatement, but not a total exaggeration.

THE BEFORE: Having for the most part emphasized So Cal and NY in the past, for the most part, the jockeys are all pretty competent (or they don't make it there). Maybe because of that, I have long been of the opinion that for the most part, the jockey didn't matter. They were mainly passengers along for the ride, just guiding their mounts to the right spots.

WHAT'S CHANGED: As I have gotten more engrossed in developing models to play large numbers of tracks, I have begun to watch some much smaller tracks with some not so hall of fame jockeys. I have seen some horrendous rides (some on my horse, some not). I've seen jockeys on the seemingly clearly the best horse decide he needs to pace duel with a hopeless 50/1 shot. I've seen jockeys use just enough horse coming out of the gate to park their mounts 5 wide going into the turn. I've seen natural front running athletes being strangled back "to save energy."

THE LESSON: I still do not upgrade horses based on having a good jockey, but I have learned (or relearned) that a terrible jockey can most definitely hurt the chances of my horse, and I have to pay more attention to that factor.

WHAT HAVE YOU LEARNED LATELY?

[ManeMediaMogul]

Someone posted a lengthy study on recent action:

Horses who have 45-day or more layoffs only win 10% of the time. That is a very valuable stat in my handicapping/line making scenario.

[rusrious]

blood lines.. The breeding of the race horse is improtant,

[lamboguy]

stay away from horses that were in the OBS sale this year no matter how matter how much someone paid for the horse.

[rokitman]

There are not many things less common than common sense.

[classhandicapper]

Horses are a llittle more versatile across the various surfaces than I previously thought. I think a lot of the fluctuations in form we see have more to do with "energy profile" of the surface/distance than the horse's surface preference. Also, speed figures are not comparable.

[ryesteve]

I learned that, despite a thread mocking it a month or two ago, the LIRR is actually a pretty nice and convenient way to get in and out of Belmont Park.

[Tampa Russ]

I've learned that I am almost always better off downgrading any horse that drifted and recently added front wraps. It's easy for me to get a bit careless playing 6 or 7 tracks at once. Good preparation is a must.

[markgoldie]

Let's see... I ordered and subsequently cancelled a subscription to Full Card Reports. Even though I know a lot of members here use it for spot plays, etc., I found it badly deficient for my purposes.

I found that the new post-time odds for any horse with a Bris Prime Power that is 9 points or more higher than the rest of the field is 1-5. However, the good news is that they seem to be paying $2.60 more than $2.40, so the average may be above $2.50. This reinforced my belief that "negative" handicapping skills are far more important than positive handicapping skills.

Learned to give thanks for harness racing or else these Monday and Tuesday offerings would be completely unbearable.

Learned that unlike fmolf, Cadillakin will not post every day of the week. In fact, his absence has me wondering if he is busy preparing his next ROI report for us.

I must admit, not much of substance...

Mark

[KidCapper]

I have learned that I cannot win betting every race. I have also learned that I think I can win every race.. :bang: :lol:

[DeanT]

I learned that I can't pick a winner if my life depends on it lately.

I recently read a jock chapter in a UK book Cbedo. You might be happy to know that statistical modeling actually shows that jockeys can make a difference - in jump races. It does not help me much, but when Kentucky Downs runs some jump races I am betting jockeys. I am looking for the jock with the springiest legs.

[fmolf]

I have learned that I cannot win betting every race. I have also learned that I think I can win every race.. :bang: :lol:
I have learned some nice ways to structure trifecta tickets and how to determine when their is value present.
I have learned maybe i should post less! :D

[cj]

Someone posted a lengthy study on recent action:

Horses who have 45-day or more layoffs only win 10% of the time. That is a very valuable stat in my handicapping/line making scenario.

Do you know the win percentage of horses that are coming off less than a 45 day break?

I have the following over the last few years, excluding 1st timers...

<45 days, 12.81% win percentage, ROI 75.79% (based on 100% break even)
>45 days, 11.01% win percentage, ROI 72.13%

Personally, I wouldn't put too much stock into that single factor.

[Bison]

THE BEFORE: Having for the most part emphasized So Cal and NY in the past, for the most part, the jockeys are all pretty competent (or they don't make it there).

You'll also get garbage rides at So Cal and NY. Just watch Desormeaux long enough, and you'll get the idea.The only time he Goes to the front is when he shouldn't. He also generally strangles anything with early speed.

[Bison]

Someone posted a lengthy study on recent action:

Horses who have 45-day or more layoffs only win 10% of the time. That is a very valuable stat in my handicapping/line making scenario.

How does this stat help you? This isn't much different than the norm of 11%.

[kenwoodallpromos]

I learned that when younger horses do not want to go into the gate, they often do not want to leave fast either! But 4 + ups will often go in slow and leave fast, even with good odds!

[jonnielu]

I learned that a lot of people might believe something, and they may enjoy hearing what they already believe, but that doesn't mean what they believe is true.

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gifA good day 2day, with 2 Top2 @$67.80, 2 Watch winrs = $45.40, 3 Top4 EX's 1 Pk3 / 2 DD / 1 cold Tri & Super = $2,396.00 C U tomorrow.7:18 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2576298428) from web



http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 10th Race - Paddock Star = #5 Warmup Star = #7 @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)7:00 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2576037566) from web
http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 9th Race - Watch #3 - Cuban Missile - Wins $37.80 Top4 EX = $192.80 2nd Watch winr 2day + 10 Units @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)6:42 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2575813601) from web
http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 9th Race - Paddock Star = #6 Warmup Star = #5 @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)6:31 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2575669578) from web
http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 8th Race - Paddock Star = #1 Warmup Star = #5 @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)6:00 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2575249543) from web
http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 7th Race - Cold Super = $1,982.20 $DD = $105.80 $1 Pk3 - $610.70 In biz 4 P6 @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)5:53 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2575155881) from web
http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 7th Race Warmup Star & Top1 #9 AJ's Conquest - Wins- $15.00 Cold EX 1-7 = $36.20 / Cold Tri = $476.20 @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)5:47 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2575067797) from web
http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 7th Race COR - Paddock Star = #4 Warmup Star = #9 @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)5:31 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2574856863) from web
http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 7th Race - Paddock Star = #3 Warmup Star = #9 @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)5:30 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2574844058) from web
http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 6th Race - Top2 #2 Sun For Fun - Wins - $7.20 / 1st DD 4day = $246.40 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)5:12 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2574602906) from web
http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 6th Race - Paddock Star = #4 Warmup Star = # @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)5:01 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2574450833) from web
http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 5th Race - Top2 #10 - Island Miss - Wins $52.80 Top2 EX = $154.60 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)4:45 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2574234112) from web
http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 5th Race - Paddock Star = #4 Warmup Star = #6 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)4:23 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2573938390) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 4th Race - Paddock Star = #3 Warmup Star = # @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)3:55 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2573549273) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 3rd Race - Paddock Star = #4 Warmup Star = # @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)3:24 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2573168128) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 2nd Race - Paddock Star = #7 Warmup Star = #9 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)2:54 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2572784836) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park - Fri 7/10 10th Race - #5,#6,#7 - Watch #1 - W/P/S - DD 3X3X3 P3 & P4 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)2:28 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2572478890) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park - Fri 7/10 9th Race - #7,#6,#1 - Watch #3 - W/P/S - DD 3X3X3 P3 & P4 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)2:28 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2572472700) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park 7/10 - 1st Race - Paddock Star = #4 Warmup Star = #6 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)2:26 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2572453493) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park - Fri 7/10 8th Race - #5,#1,#3 - Watch #11 - W/P/S - DD 3X3X3 P3 & P4 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)2:20 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2572369730) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park - Fri 7/10 7th Race - #9,#7,#10 - Watch #4 - W/P/S - DD 3X3X3 P3 & P4 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)2:19 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2572363482) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park - Fri 7/10 6th Race - #4,#2,#5 - Watch #1 - W/P/S - DD 3X3X3 P3 & P4 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)2:18 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2572356099) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park - Fri 7/10 5th Race - #1,#10,#8 - Watch #9 - W/P/S - DD 3X3X3 P3 & P4 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)2:18 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2572348981) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park - Fri 7/10 4th Race - #6,#3,#5 - Watch #2 - W/P/S - DD 3X3X3 P3 & P4 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)2:17 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2572340733) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park - Fri 7/10 3rd Race - #2,#4,#5 - Watch #1 - W/P/S - DD 3X3X3 P3 & P4 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)2:15 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2572315674) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park - Fri 7/10 2nd Race - #9,#3,#5 - Watch #7 - W/P/S - DD 3X3X3 P3 & P4 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)2:14 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2572306805) from web

http://assets2.twitter.com/images/icon_lock.gif@ Arlington Park - Fri 7/10 1st Race - #6,#7,#8 - Watch #4 - W/P/S - DD 3X3X3 P3 & P4 @hollyparkracing (http://twitter.com/hollyparkracing) @MonmouthPark (http://twitter.com/MonmouthPark)2:11 PM Jul 10th (http://twitter.com/TrackSideEye/status/2572266307) from web
jdl

[lsosa54]

What is it that you're truly stating with the above post in this thread? That your approach is the only correct or successful approach and that folks don't believe in it, so you're proving them wrong? I'm assuming that you posted a list of 26 successful races? Do you not have a list of 26 unsuccessful races? I think we all probably do.

I followed the saga of pktruckdriver peripherally, but this approach didn't seem to work for him, for whatever reason. Maybe it was just him. On one of the few days this year I actually handicapped AP, would you be shocked that Cuban Missile was also one of my bets derived from my approach?

I guess in a thread where folks are trying to give some of their "lessons learned" maybe for the benefit of others to learn from, I still don't get the "lesson" you're trying to pass on here.

[ryesteve]

What is it that you're truly stating with the above post in this thread?He's stating that in 10 races he gave out 55 horses, and 4 of them managed to win.

Eagerly awaiting a similar recap on all the days when there were no $52 and $37 hits.

[Black Ruby]

I've learned more in two months of playing a track with mostly $3500-10000 claimers than I did in a long time of playing pricier circuits.

CBedo, you wanna talk about bad jockeys, it doesn't seem that most of these guys open a form to see how the race is likely to unfold.

[foz1210]

I learned that Carlos Martin and Angel Penna Jr. are having great meets with their turf runners at belmont.

[jonnielu]

What is it that you're truly stating with the above post in this thread? That your approach is the only correct or successful approach and that folks don't believe in it, so you're proving them wrong? I'm assuming that you posted a list of 26 successful races? Do you not have a list of 26 unsuccessful races? I think we all probably do.


I never said that my approach was the only correct or successful approach, there are several successful approaches in what I posted. There are those that succeed with other totally different approaches.


I followed the saga of pktruckdriver peripherally, but this approach didn't seem to work for him, for whatever reason. Maybe it was just him. On one of the few days this year I actually handicapped AP, would you be shocked that Cuban Missile was also one of my bets derived from my approach?


Well, if it couldn't work for one, it couldn't work for any. Nothing in horse racing shocks me. Some people might bet any horse that has "missile" in its name, I know I like to bet on any of the missiles. There is a seat for every ass at the track.


I guess in a thread where folks are trying to give some of their "lessons learned" maybe for the benefit of others to learn from, I still don't get the "lesson" you're trying to pass on here.


I was told last week that you can't win on poly or grass. I don't believe that, and I have learned otherwise.

It would be that if you only believe what you already believe, it doesn't leave much room for learning anything.

jdl

[sobrenatural]

Its a higher win rate turf horses.

[ranchwest]

There is a seat for every ass at the track.

jdl

You obviously haven't been to Lone Star Park.

[CBedo]

You obviously haven't been to Lone Star Park.Last time I was down in Texas, I went to the Lone Star simulcast facility. I hadn't been there since it originally opened and remembered how nice I thought it was. WOW, have them done any maintenance on that place since it opened? A coat of paint wouldn't kill them. There might have been seats, but I was a bit afraid to sit in them, lol!

[LottaKash]

I have learned when handicapping "Poly Surfaces", that my Harness handicapping skills transfer "quite nicely"...Meaning that, on Poly, a horses finishing ability is somewhat more important than the early speed is on the more traditional dirt surfaces....This is not to say, on poly, that early speed, position and pace control have lost their meaning in the true spirit of racing, but I have found that many horses that have acclimated to the Poly surfaces, and finish strongly in their closing pace numbers and finish positions, are more powerful contenders when trying to find the winner of a race on that surface vs. early dirt speedballs...I haven't done that much homework on this, but so far that is my clear perception of things as of now....

best,

[ranchwest]

Last time I was down in Texas, I went to the Lone Star simulcast facility. I hadn't been there since it originally opened and remembered how nice I thought it was. WOW, have them done any maintenance on that place since it opened? A coat of paint wouldn't kill them. There might have been seats, but I was a bit afraid to sit in them, lol!

Not much has changed since the 2004 Breeders Cup (fiasco).

[KingChas]

I've learned/remembered that horses shipping out of NY,
in non stakes races that look to good to be true in the form,
usually are terrible sucker bets.

[jonnielu]

I've learned/remembered that horses shipping out of NY,
in non stakes races that look to good to be true in the form,
usually are terrible sucker bets.

If you take that, and keep going with it, you can learn a lotta mo.

jdl

[KingChas]

Actually I was referring to Monmouth Park,which I am concentrating on before the Spa opens.
Fortunately I have been avoiding the temptation to bet the look to good to be true NY shippers.
Saved a few bucks. ;)

[Robert Fischer]

I've been trying to fully develop my video review of replays. Seeking out the knowledge. Going through the basic processes, rather than free-forming everything, and really trying to have a strength where in the past I've had some success but haven't been focused and organized. This carries over into the watch-list, as your video review will be what supplies you with horses who have run exceptional races.


hmmm... what else??
I've kind of gravitated into pick3's from doubles and exactas. This hasn't been intentional, and the doubles and exactas fit my bankroll better at this point. On the bright side, developed some confidence in the pick3 for the times when it is appropriate.

[dartman51]

What have you learned recently (or had forgotten and recently had it reintroduced) that has helped improve your handicapping and your results?

I am constantly evolving (and sometimes devolving) as a handicapper, and am always learning (lots from you guys and gals here at PA) or trying to learn. I was thinking tonight about things I've come up with lately.

One thing I've learned lately is that jockeys suck! That's a bit of an overstatement, but not a total exaggeration.

THE BEFORE: Having for the most part emphasized So Cal and NY in the past, for the most part, the jockeys are all pretty competent (or they don't make it there). Maybe because of that, I have long been of the opinion that for the most part, the jockey didn't matter. They were mainly passengers along for the ride, just guiding their mounts to the right spots.

WHAT'S CHANGED: As I have gotten more engrossed in developing models to play large numbers of tracks, I have begun to watch some much smaller tracks with some not so hall of fame jockeys. I have seen some horrendous rides (some on my horse, some not). I've seen jockeys on the seemingly clearly the best horse decide he needs to pace duel with a hopeless 50/1 shot. I've seen jockeys use just enough horse coming out of the gate to park their mounts 5 wide going into the turn. I've seen natural front running athletes being strangled back "to save energy."

THE LESSON: I still do not upgrade horses based on having a good jockey, but I have learned (or relearned) that a terrible jockey can most definitely hurt the chances of my horse, and I have to pay more attention to that factor.

WHAT HAVE YOU LEARNED LATELY?

There is 1 FACT with JOCKEYS. A good jockey CAN'T make a BAD horse win, BUT a BAD jockey CAN make a GOOD horse lose. :ThmbUp:

[andicap]

Not to get on the bad side of Slewis.

:p

[Steven Kolb]

To make millions, baseball players DREAM of hitting .350
'
If a horseplayer hits that... he's broke :confused:
'
sk

[LottaKash]

To make millions, baseball players DREAM of hitting .350
'
If a horseplayer hits that... he's broke :confused:
'
sk

SK, I don't know about that...With a 35% hit rate, if you get the right prices, you can make a ton of money....

best,

[brdman12]

I have learned that although ( for me) pace, speed, form, trainer, jockey are important, that I have been underestimating the value of class.

[jayfree41]

yes if you win 35% of your bets you are definitely profitable.

I find that when I am batting .220 or higher I am in the black.

as far as my lessons of late:

1. It's important to take breaks from handicapping. I am currently on a two week break. Last time I took a break - I came back and nailed two 100k pick 6 payoffs in a week.

2. The Arlington poly track is very very hard to read...hence the consistent pick 6 carryovers.

3. Norberto Arroyo at Belmont is a stud. Check out his R.O.I. this year!!! Astronomical.

[LottaKash]

yes if you win 35% of your bets you are definitely profitable.

I find that when I am batting .220 or higher I am in the black.

as far as my lessons of late:

1. It's important to take breaks from handicapping. I am currently on a two week break. Last time I took a break - I came back and nailed two 100k pick 6 payoffs in a week.


.

Where did you say you live ???.....

best,

[CBedo]

To make millions, baseball players DREAM of hitting .350
'
If a horseplayer hits that... he's broke :confused:
'
skIf you aren't making money at 35%, then I don't know what to tell you.

[formula_2002]

Not so lately .

your Actual winners / public's Expected winners = roi

(1/(Sum 1/(odds+1)))-1= track take out

Study results based on incremental odds analysis.
The smaller the increment and the greater the amount of data, the more predictable and usefull the results.

Keep this chart in mind (and do the work to understand it);
http://www.jcapper.com/messageboard/TopicReader.asp?topic=473&forum=General

Accepting your handicapping powers, makes horse race betting an easy game. :)

[ryesteve]

If you aren't making money at 35%, then I don't know what to tell you.I would tell him "stop betting even money shots"

[jayfree41]

I live in Seattle - not a handicapping mecca. But there are horse race lovers - out here.

[Steven Kolb]

HOWEVER >>>>

Re: 35% winners...say at 5-2 avg. and you need to win $300/day to pay your living expenses/bills - 5 days a week. That's earning roughly $75,000/yr.
_________
Properly handicapping 25 races (w/ video & all) to find 10 to wager on - - betting $200 per race creates a $500 profit each win X 3.5 wins = $1,750 in winnings, then minus your loses of $1,300 = a $450 profit for the day.
_________
$450 - taxes (wiggle room here) and expenses = $370 net for the day! Yes!!! (I guess)... but you're doing little more than paying your bills!

The negative is that it's more than a twelve hour day - all by yourself. No fun.
If you hit a winning streak - awesome! If you hit a long losing streak - - ouchie / oochie / eachie crappola! :(
_________
Pick no winners 12 consecutive days and your down $24,000 !! ouch!
_________
You'd probably need a bankroll of at least $80K - double that would be better - and you are running a very high risk business.
_________
IT'S NOT FOR ME!
_________

sk

[CBedo]

HOWEVER >>>>

Re: 35% winners...say at 5-2 avg. and you need to win $300/day to pay your living expenses/bills - 5 days a week. That's earning roughly $75,000/yr.
_________
Properly handicapping 25 races (w/ video & all) to find 10 to wager on - - betting $200 per race creates a $500 profit each win X 3.5 wins = $1,750 in winnings, then minus your loses of $1,300 = a $450 profit for the day.
_________
$450 - taxes (wiggle room here) and expenses = $370 net for the day! Yes!!! (I guess)... but you're doing little more than paying your bills!

The negative is that it's more than a twelve hour day - all by yourself. No fun.
If you hit a winning streak - awesome! If you hit a long losing streak - - ouchie / oochie / eachie crappola! :(
_________
Pick no winners 12 consecutive days and your down $24,000 !! ouch!
_________
You'd probably need a bankroll of at least $80K - double that would be better - and you are running a very high risk business.
_________
IT'S NOT FOR ME!
_________

sk1) If you really are a 35% handicapper, the odds of missing 10 in a row (your 10 per day) is 1.3%ish; the odds of doing that 12 days in a row is basically 0.

2) $80,000 bankroll for $200 a bet? This is overkill on safety big time.

[kenwoodallpromos]

Lately that East Coast is being more consistent with my type bets (lowest 2 odds- situational).

[tag]

I've learned that Del Mar is impossible to handicap and will be staying away from that track.