Any Comments on Rail Trip?

[JustRalph]

Watched Rail Trip today at Hollywood............in the Gold Cup

Was it as good a performance as it looked?

[fmolf]

Watched Rail Trip today at Hollywood............in the Gold Cup

Was it as good a performance as it looked?
he set a fake track record ......tres borrachos was slowing down and the filly unleashed a bit late i thought...nice race Ellis had him ready to run...

[Greyfox]

A 1 1/4 mile race begging for pace.
Rail Trip looked like he might have to set the pace.
He proved otherwise and with a previous set of good Beyers
was obviously in good enough shape to beat this bunch.
A better question might have been
1. Why were his odds so high?
2. What happened to the overbet fav who was sweating in the Post Parade?

[slew101]

I liked Tres Borrachos as a possible longshot but went with the filly instead. Felt fortunate to get 3rd from where she was on the turn.

Didn't like Rail Trip, so I wouldn't have had the exacta anyways.

[OTM Al]

A 1 1/4 mile race begging for pace.
Rail Trip looked like he might have to set the pace.
He proved otherwise and with a previous set of good Beyers
was obviously in good enough shape to beat this bunch.
A better question might have been
1. Why were his odds so high?
2. What happened to the overbet fav who was sweating in the Post Parade?


1. His odds were high because of several factors, First because of losing the the last 2 the way he did, many people probably thought there was no way he could do the 10f either on the lead or stalking. Second, it was a 13 horse field. Third and most importantly, Hollywood runs the most like dirt of all the Polys, so you don't have to be a closer to win.

2. Parading may have been a bit too much of a wise guy horse anyway. He did make it up for 5th, so he wasn't terrible, just not sharp. Several seemed to be sweating quite a bit that I saw. Trainer said on TVG though that it was normal for him to get worked up before a race, so who knows how much it did or didn't take out of him.

[larman]

Easily the worst grade 1 race this year.This should be submitted as proof
positive that racing on plastic must go. How bad will the breeders cup
be this year?

[CBedo]

I thought the race set up perfectly for him. Mast Track and all the other speed didn't fire or decided not to go, so TB and RT had it all their way up front. I wasn't paying enough attention to really judge the track speed. RTs odds probably reflected the questions of the last two races and the question of the distance (even his trainer had said something to the fact he wasn't sure if he wanted a 1 1/4). I had thought the pace would be hotter and the off the pace types would be advantaged. Boy was I wrong there. Besided for Rail Trip, I actually think the filly looked good being the only horse who closed the gap at all from the 1/2 mile (Bullsbay improved by a length I think).

[statepierback]

He got the trip and then the $. I wish I'd bet more on him. Instead of ten to win I keyed him on top in a tri. All I cashed was a 2w2p saver. :faint:

[RockHardTen1985]

110 Beyer.

[RockHardTen1985]

Easily the worst grade 1 race this year.This should be submitted as proof
positive that racing on plastic must go. How bad will the breeders cup
be this year?

Im not sure it was even the worst Grade 1 race of the day. The Calder sprint races were both jokes.

[JeremyJet]

110 Beyer.

I hope the handicappers that don't subscribe to the bounce theory unload on him next time out.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[RockHardTen1985]

Take a close look at his entire career. He has never done a thing wrong. A few bad rides have cost him.

I'm not a fan, but even I know he's legit.

[classhandicapper]

Clearly a solid and improving horse.

[classhandicapper]

I hope the handicappers that don't subscribe to the bounce theory unload on him next time out.

Regards,

JeremyJet

If all the handicappers that believe in bouncing avoid him, he might just be enough of a price to make betting him a very smart move. ;) Honestly, I think it's probably unlikely that he duplicates the 110 Beyer. That's a pretty fast figure on synth even with the new Beyer adjustments, but I see no major reason the horse can't fire another big race. I won't consider the lack of another 110 next time to have anything to do with the effort he put out this weekend. It will more likely be the result of trip or mild mean reversion.

[OTM Al]

They were saying on TVG that this guy was going to be a derby horse for them, but he got derailed. This guy could turn out to be a pretty decent horse before all is said and done if he doesn't get derailed again.

[JeremyJet]

If all the handicappers that believe in bouncing avoid him, he might just be enough of a price to make betting him a very smart move. ;) Honestly, I think it's probably unlikely that he duplicates the 110 Beyer. That's a pretty fast figure on synth even with the new Beyer adjustments, but I see no major reason the horse can't fire another big race. I won't consider the lack of another 110 next time to have anything to do with the effort he put out this weekend. It will more likely be the result of trip or mild mean reversion.

Well, call it what you want "mild mean reversion", but even you agree that he probably won't run the 110 next time out.

He "mild mean reversioned" off his previous two tops. I'm of the opinion he does it again next time out.

Regards,

JeremyJet

[JeremyJet]

Wouldn't it just be easier to call it a bounce? :)

Regards,

JeremyJet

[classhandicapper]

Wouldn't it just be easier to call it a bounce? :)

Regards,

JeremyJet

Actually no.

Maybe it 's just me being very picky, but the bounce theory says that horses "react" to especially difficult races. I don't disagree with that assertion, but I think it's monstrously overrated as a factor in figure fluctuations.

I used to shoot a lot of pool.

On some days my concentration was especially good, my stroke was very fliud, my nerves were under control, etc.. and I got great results relative to my average level. Some days it was the opposite. Some days the conditions were perfect (dry weather, clean balls, new cloth etc..) and I played great. Other days they were terrible (very humid, overly lively rails, tight pockets, dirty balls etc..)

I'm sure all athletes and game players go through the same thing.

None of that has anything to do with reactions to prior performances. They are normal variations around a mean level of performance.

However, I remember one time I played in a tournament. I lost my first match and wound up on the "one loss side" right away. That required a lot more matches, less rest between matches, etc... I was constantly on my feet, concentrating, working hard etc... for almost 12 hours. The next day I played like crap. I would say I bounced. ;)

[garyscpa]

... Other days they were terrible (very humid, overly lively rails, tight pockets, dirty balls etc..)

... The next day I played like crap. I would say I bounced. ;)

Playing with dirty balls will do that to you. :lol:

[Stillriledup]

I didn't have a program but why isn't Jose Valdivia riding this horse, is he injured?

[Dahoss9698]

I didn't have a program but why isn't Jose Valdivia riding this horse, is he injured?

Didn't ride him last time either. Valdivia is riding on the east coast now.

[cuzimahustler]

NO hes not in town so they gave the horse to Bejarano.

[Stillriledup]

Thanks guys. I was happy for Jose when he crossed the wire and my glee turned to sadness when i realized good guy Jose was not in the irons.