IBF2 Picks for Friday 07/10

[CBedo]

For fun, I thought I'd post some picks for a few days using a new computer model that has showed promise so far (waiting for results to crash, hehe?). I'm calling it the IBF2 model as the post was "Inspired By Formula 2002." In testing, the model has been just better than b/e (which was the original goal). Most of these will be low priced favorites. In looking at the results, the ROI goes up dramatically with horses over 2/1 (the hit rate drops quite a bit as you would guess), but at least in the beginning, I am putting no odds filter on the plays as it's hard to truly judge a model on going off odds since you don't get to see those odds before you bet (late odds changes, grrrr!).

The basic premise of this first iteration simple model is to look for horses who have could have an early pace advantage along with some semblance of overall ability.

Good luck today!


TRACK RACE Program# NAME DISTANCE CLASS
ARP 1 1 BLUE SAVAGE 6 Clm5000NW2L
ASD 6 2 SILENT VICTORY 6 Clm3000NW26MX
BEL 3 2 OCEAN GODDESS 6 OC50000NW2X
BEL 5 9 UNITY 7 Clm15000NW2L
CBY 2 3 KISSA SUNFLOWER 6 MC10000
CNL 7 3 HURRICANE CAROU 6.5 Clm7500NW4L
CRC 9 6 GREEN VEGAS 8.3 OC50000NW3X
CT 5 13 MINE 6.5 Clm6000NW2LX
CT 9 4 PAT'S CAT MAN 6.5 Clm6000NW2LX
EMD 3 9 MOMENTS IN MAY 8 Clm4000NW2L
EMD 6 5 SEATTLE GAME 6.5 Clm12500NW2L
EMD 8 7 DAWNTERRI 6.5 Clm3500
FL 1 2 UN OCHIO 5.5 Clm4000NW26M
FL 2 8 LUCKY TO COPE 6 Clm4000NW1Y
FL 6 3 PATH TO SUCCESS 8.5 MC15000
FP 2 5 GOLDFINDER 6 Alw7600NW2L
FP 4 7 ONLINE CODE 6 Clm10000NW3L
FP 7 5 DOLLAR DIPLOMAC 8.3 Clm4000C
GPR 5 5 CATSIMILE 6 Clm3300
HST 5 10 GALA BOURNE 6.5 MC5000
HST 8 4 ROCKY ENGAGEMEN 6.5 MC5000
LAD 2 5 CLAUDIA'S FORUM 8.3 Clm5000C
LAD 9 11 PROUD LETTER 6 MC5000
LNN 5 7 MAKING DREAMS 6 Clm5000NW2L
LNN 6 1 MEGAPUNCH 6 Clm2500NW26M
LNN 7 6 RAGTIME TERRITO 8 Clm5000NW3L
MNR 8 3 TONY LANTANA 6 StrAlw16600
NP 1 3 SPECIAL PETE 8 MC7000
NP 2 7 DIXIE DEALER 6 MC27500
NP 3 8 UP GRADER 6.5 Clm5000NW26M
NP 5 3 RAPID 'N READY 6.5 Clm30000
NP 8 3 REAL MACHO 6.5 Clm7500NW2L
PEN 5 4 POPULIST 8.3 OC20000NW3X
PID 6 4 HAPPY WAC 5.5 Clm25000NW2L
PNL 3 4 LEFT SEAT LOUIE 8 Clm6250C
PNL 7 7 WHO'S HER DADDY 6 Clm5000NW2L
PRM 2 5 PEACHES TEACHES 6 MC12500
PRM 3 5 GRAY LOVER 6 Clm12500NW2L
RD 7 1 CAMP CHINA 5 Clm4000
RD 11 2 NEWPORT LULU 5.5 StrAlw5600
RUI 10 5 PRINCE LOGAN 7.5 Clm5000NW2L
TDN 8 2 LIL MIKE REGGIE 6 Clm3500NW1Y

[CBedo]

FYI, I should note that the scratch of horses other than the picks in these races will not impact the picks, although scratches in non-model pick races could elevate a pick there.

[CBedo]

Sorry, I didn't post the results last night. I was playing a poker tournament and lasted longer than I expected, hehe. I will post the results right after I post today's picks (I want to make sure I get them up before any of them run). I believe yesterday was down about 3%.

Here are the 39 prescratch possible plays for today:

Track Race Program # Horse distance Class
ANF 13 7 RAPID BABY 4.5 Clm2500NWL
ARP 9 8 DIAMOND HONDO 8.5 Clm3200NW1R6M
ASD 7 10 CALLIE'S WISDOM 7.5 Clm3000NW16MX
BEL 6 2 TWO BRASH 8.5 Alw46000NW2L
CBY 6 3 A STEEL TRAP 6 VSMyersJr35k
CT 6 14 FLATWOOD HANK 7 Clm4000NW3LX
DEL 2 3 QUIP 8.5 Clm40000NW26M
DEL 4 6 SUNDAY STATEMEN 5.5 MC7500
DEL 6 11 LAUGHING MATTER 5.5 Clm5000NW16MX
DEL 8 3 NICE RING 6 MC20000
ELP 3 5 MENTO INK 5.5 MC5000
EMD 10 3 DEVILIN 6 MC7500
FL 2 8 NARRATION 6 Clm4000NW4L
FL 4 4 GEM'S HONOR 5.5 Clm4000NW2Y
FL 5 1A TARTAN PLAID 6 MC4000
FMT 4 3 MR. DOUG STAR 4 Clm3500NW26M
FMT 10 10 ETERNAL PURSUIT 6.5 Route6640k
FP 2 7 WINDS DUE EAST 6 Clm3200NW4L
FP 7 3 MUNSTER DOWN UN 6 Clm4000NW2L
FP 8 1 SHOW ME YOUR BE 8.3 Clm3200NW16M
GPR 3 3 CRIME AFTER CRI 7 Clm3300NW36M
GPR 7 2 VICTORIA REINS 6 Clm2600NW26M
HST 1 3 SARATOGA OUTLAW 6.5 Clm12500
LAD 4 2 EXPECTMONEY 6 Clm5000
LNN 4 2 LASSIE'S CAT 6 MC5000
LNN 6 4 CAMARADERIE 6 Clm5000NW3L
LS 3 2 RESPECT MATTERS 6.5 Clm4000
MD 3 7 ALLEY FIGHTER 6 Clm6000
MNR 7 10 MARCH TREND 6 Clm5000NW3L
PEN 9 5 LAMP OF LIFE 12 Clm20000
PHA 5 3 CLASSY CONCERN 8.3 StrAlw32000
PLN 11 9 MARKED TREASURE 5 Clm3200NW2LX
PNL 2 2 EMPOWERED PRAYE 5 Clm5000NW3L
PRM 1 3 DYNAMIC AFFAIR 8.5 OC25000NW2X
PRM 3 1 STORMING OVER I 6 Clm12500NW2L
PRM 4 6 GO O STATE 6 Clm12500NW16M
PRM 5 5 FRIENDLY GLIDE 6 Clm12500NW2L
SUF 1 6 LOCAL JUSTICE 8 Clm4000NW16M
SUF 7 2B C. G'S STRIKER 6 OC16000NW2X

[CBedo]

Friday's Picks
TRACK RACE Program# NAME DISTANCE CLASS
ARP 1 1 BLUE SAVAGE 6 Clm5000NW2L
ASD 6 2 SILENT VICTORY 6 Clm3000NW26MX
BEL 3 2 OCEAN GODDESS 6 OC50000NW2X
BEL 5 9 UNITY 7 Clm15000NW2L
CBY 2 3 KISSA SUNFLOWER 6 MC10000
CNL 7 3 HURRICANE CAROU 6.5 Clm7500NW4L
CRC 9 6 GREEN VEGAS 8.3 OC50000NW3X
CT 5 13 MINE 6.5 Clm6000NW2LX
CT 9 4 PAT'S CAT MAN 6.5 Clm6000NW2LX
EMD 3 9 MOMENTS IN MAY 8 Clm4000NW2L
EMD 6 5 SEATTLE GAME 6.5 Clm12500NW2L
EMD 8 7 DAWNTERRI 6.5 Clm3500
FL 1 2 UN OCHIO 5.5 Clm4000NW26M
FL 2 8 LUCKY TO COPE 6 Clm4000NW1Y
FL 6 3 PATH TO SUCCESS 8.5 MC15000
FP 2 5 GOLDFINDER 6 Alw7600NW2L
FP 4 7 ONLINE CODE 6 Clm10000NW3L
FP 7 5 DOLLAR DIPLOMAC 8.3 Clm4000C
GPR 5 5 CATSIMILE 6 Clm3300
HST 5 10 GALA BOURNE 6.5 MC5000
HST 8 4 ROCKY ENGAGEMEN 6.5 MC5000
LAD 2 5 CLAUDIA'S FORUM 8.3 Clm5000C
LAD 9 11 PROUD LETTER 6 MC5000
LNN 5 7 MAKING DREAMS 6 Clm5000NW2L
LNN 6 1 MEGAPUNCH 6 Clm2500NW26M
LNN 7 6 RAGTIME TERRITO 8 Clm5000NW3L
MNR 8 3 TONY LANTANA 6 StrAlw16600
NP 1 3 SPECIAL PETE 8 MC7000
NP 2 7 DIXIE DEALER 6 MC27500
NP 3 8 UP GRADER 6.5 Clm5000NW26M
NP 5 3 RAPID 'N READY 6.5 Clm30000
NP 8 3 REAL MACHO 6.5 Clm7500NW2L
PEN 5 4 POPULIST 8.3 OC20000NW3X
PID 6 4 HAPPY WAC 5.5 Clm25000NW2L
PNL 3 4 LEFT SEAT LOUIE 8 Clm6250C
PNL 7 7 WHO'S HER DADDY 6 Clm5000NW2L
PRM 2 5 PEACHES TEACHES 6 MC12500
PRM 3 5 GRAY LOVER 6 Clm12500NW2L
RD 7 1 CAMP CHINA 5 Clm4000
RD 11 2 NEWPORT LULU 5.5 StrAlw5600
RUI 10 5 PRINCE LOGAN 7.5 Clm5000NW2L
TDN 8 2 LIL MIKE REGGIE 6 Clm3500NW1Y

There was one scratch at CT. There were three other plays which were not listed that occurred as a result of other scratches. I won't include them since I didin't post them before the races (they were 1/3 for a small profit). After the CT scratch, there were 41 plays. 14 winners (34.1%) and 25 itm (61.0%). This was within the realm of what I had seen in testing where the win rate ran 32-37% daily. The ITM% was a bit lower that what I had seen but not by too much. Many of these seem to win or run out and in the test sets, usually the ITM% was roughly double the win%.

The 41 plays returned $80.40 ($2 flat bets) for a net loss of -1.95% for the day which equates to average odds of about 1.9 (median odds of all starters was just over 2). The results were different from the test sets in that this was the first time that the lower odds horses were better than the ones above 2/1. The plays at or below 2/1 won 55% for a 5.5% return. It was a tough day for the higher odds bets, hitting only 3/21 for a 9% loss.

Looking at individual races to see if there was anything hinky, we did have one winner with odds of 10.4 which some may think might skew the results, but looking deeper we see a number of other price horses that just missed, including a 22.6 odds horse that lost by a nose at FL (rats!).

I'll post these picks for at least today and tomorrow and we'll see what happens.

Good luck today!

(If anyone has any questions about the methodology, or about any of the individual race results, feel free to ask).

[CBedo]

Removing the bet at Pen today. I forgot to do a quick distance filter as I've been tossing plays out at 1 1/4 or longer (this one is 1 1/2).

[CBedo]

Prescratch we had 38 plays (I had reported 39, but then took out a 12 furlong play at Pen--which of course won). After scratches, this was knocked down to 33 (After scratches, there were another 8 plays added which I won't count since I didn't report them before they ran. FYI, their ROI was -2.5%).

Of the 33 plays, only 8 won today (24.2%). This was the lowest I have seen in my testing to date. The ITM% was a bit low today as well at 63.6% but not as out of whack as the win%. Usually, the ITM% is about double the win %; today it was significantly more with more horses running 2nd than winning (9 v 8). Hopefully going forward, the win percentage will get back into the mid 30s.

The return for the day was -11.8%. $66 dollars bet with only $58.20 returned. The day could have been even worse if not for a couple of late day, nice priced winners (at small tracks that some would probably have a tough time betting). It is somewhat encouraging (trying to be glass half full promoter, hehe) that on what seemed to be a woefully poor day, the results still beat the track take--but that's obviously not what we're trying to do!

As I stated before, I am avoiding using an minimum odds filter since any arbitrary cutoff will be hard to judge after the fact, given the late odds movement we see at most tracks today, but I will report the "greater than 2/1" class just to be consistent, and it is my belief that these will be stronger return plays (yesterday was the first day I had seen where they underperformed). Today, there were only 14 plays that had odds higher than 2/1. Of those only 3 won (another 3 2nds and 1 3rd) for a win percentage of only 21.4%, but the returns were positive returning 39.60 for 28 dollars bet--a 41.4% roi in this category today.

I'll fire again tomorrow!

[CBedo]

31 pre-scratch possible plays for Sunday. Here's to a better day!

TRACK RACE PROGRAM# HORSE DIST CLASS
ANF 9 8 MS CLASSIC SENE 5 Stk25000
ARP 1 6 NOTIAGO'S GIRL 5.5 Clm5000NW26M
CBY 1 4 EXEMPLARY CHARM 8.3 MC10000
CBY 5 5 VANILLA SCOOP 6.5 Clm10000
CBY 8 5 BORN RUNNING 5.5 Clm7500NW2L
CT 4 3 ANGEL VELOZ 8.5 Clm4000C
DEL 2 11 WARM CLIMATE 6 Clm5000NW2L
EMD 6 11 SENDIPITY 5.5 Clm3500C
FE 7 3 BETTER THAN ENO 6 Clm5000NW2L
FL 4 7 PAVING THE WAY 8.3 Clm4000NW2Y+
FL 9 5 NEW YORK CITI 8.3 Clm4000NW16M
FMT 2 2 CLASSY FLYER 4 MC5000
LAD 4 5 CLASSY COLINDA 8.3 Clm5000NW3L
LNN 5 4 OUR ECLARE 6 Clm5000NW2L
LS 3 6 MAGDALENA'S CHA 6 OC30000NW2X
MNR 6 6 MALAPAI 6 Clm5000NW1Y
MNR 7 7 CANTERBURY LADY 6 MC5000
MNR 10 9 GENERAL FOX 6 Clm5000NW1Y
MTH 5 6 ORIGINAL SIN 8.5 Alw41000NW1X
PHA 2 2 PRIVATE BLUES 6 Clm7500NW16MX
PHA 9 4 MR. FIESTY JONE 6 MC12500
PID 2 8 PRETTY BOY FORE 5.5 Clm7500NW2L
PLN 4 5 MADAME ROBERTA 8.5 Clm4000NW2L
PLN 5 4 EASTER CANDY 8.5 Alw30000NW1$X
PLN 10 1 CHRISTMAS SHIP 8.5 AlamedaCoH50k
RD 5 2 U DREAM IT U DO 8 Clm5000NW3L
RUI 7 2 SHANNA SAVANA 6 Clm7500NW3L
RUI 8 3 GOODBYE NORMA J 7.5 FSawyerH50k
YAV 2 8 GEISHA GHOST 5.5 MC3500
YAV 6 9 BASS RIVER 5 Clm3500NW2L
YAV 7 7 JOSHOMO 8 MC5000

[CBedo]

Waiting for the last play of the day, Mountaineer Race 10. If the :9: wins (9/2 currently), we have a positive day, if he loses, we'll be down about 5% for the day (down 1.5% before this play). Go 9!

[CBedo]

Waiting for the last play of the day, Mountaineer Race 10. If the :9: wins (9/2 currently), we have a positive day, if he loses, we'll be down about 5% for the day (down 1.5% before this play). Go 9!He never got involved at all. :sleeping:. I'll have the final results and statistics tabulated soon.

[CBedo]

Prescratch possible plays were 31. A couple of scratches and a cancelled race at Yavapai meant we had 27 plays today (2 plays came up as a result of scratches in other races that we won't count since they weren't posted. They went 1/2 for a tiny profit). Of the 27 races, the hit rate was low again today at only 29.6% (8 winners). Today was thirditis day with 2 horses running second and 9 more running third for roughly a 70% ITM%. It's the third day in a row that the win percentage has been lower than I expected relative to the ITM%.

Making 27 bets means 54 bet for a return of 51.2, a -5.2% roi. Overall, today was not a good day, with most of the plays being low odds and the majority of the few better odds plays we had, running poorly. The savior of the day was a 26.80 bomb (over half the return of the day). It doesn't make me feel warm and fuzzy when one play turns a struggle into a disaster!

There were 13 plays that wen toff at over 2/1. Only the 26.80 horse won with another 6 running in the money. So the beautiful (not) 7.7% win percentage returned a positve 3.1% roi.

[CBedo]

The last three days have provided 101 plays and 30 winners (29.7%). $202 bet would have returned $189.80, a return on investment of -6.0% (we're going to need a bigger rebate!)

I'm disappointed in the results so far, but there is some encouragement with the win percentage being so low, the payoffs being pretty low and the returns still being only down mid single digits.

Looking at only the plays that went off at over 2/1 cut out about half the bets. We would have had 48 plays, of which only 7 won (much lower than predicted), but a couple of big longshots generated enough return to keep the model positive returning 104.60 for $96 bet, a 9% roi.

This model is pretty simplistic with only a few factors and then a couple of filters, so it is also encouraging as a possible jumping off point for further research.

Hopefully, the upcoming week will be more profitable!