at the races.. a few comments

[formula_2002]

Briefly read a review of "At the Races" by Dick Schmidt.
Praises to the developers for apparently accomplishing a user friendly on line exacta board analyzer.

But just a word of caution, as you will find out for yourself in short order, those apparent exacta overlays dissipate the closer it gets to post time. My hats off to the betting public for neutralizing the spreads in the win pool / exacta pool.

For several years I have down loaded online tote boards, generally at 2 min to post, ran it through my program that yielded all the exacta overlays, phoned in my bets and, kaka..
Still to lose 20% of the bankroll.

I don’t know how they calculate the true exacta probability, but from my years on the BB, most players who feel they have a win pool edge (say, less then the track take), don’t factor that edge into the place horse odds.


But the program sounds like fun... Just don't get your hopes up about making money.

Joe M

[Tom]

Hey Joe,
I have seen a lot of tables that give ouot exaxta payoff based on odds, buyt noneog them factor in field size. Isn't this an important consideration? Or have I j ust seen the right tables?

Thanks,

[formula_2002]

Tom, in 4 horse fields, the win odds=2-1
5 horse field 3-1
6 horse field 7/2
7 horse field 4-1
8 horse field 5-1

all with a negative return of appox 20%.

The public factors in the field size in deciding the final odds, just a they do speed, pace, class, jockey, trainer, recency, form, surface, distance, race type etc.

In that entire wonderful mix, they can determined true odds with some amount of deviation.