eliminations

[Robert Goren]

Is there some horses that you automatically eliminate? I always toss out horses who ran last in their last start.

[fmolf]

Is there some horses that you automatically eliminate? I always toss out horses who ran last in their last start.
any horse that cannot run near the race par unless a lightly raced 3yr old....
any horse distanced at this level last three races (+10 lenght losses)not showing any drastic changes for todays race...Horse dropping in claiming price after a win.

[andicap]

Is there some horses that you automatically eliminate?

Yeah, the winner. :bang:

[bcgreg]

Yeah, the winner. :bang:

:lol: :lol: :lol:

bcgreg

[kenwoodallpromos]

When I was a newbie and for awhile after I used to do eliminations based on this or that; before I learned about horses-for-courses, shipping to Calder for horses who are lousy on sealed hard tracks, excusing 1 or 2 last races if current odds are good enough, track speed, stiffing outside horses who cannot get the lead, turn time, comments denoting bad legs, looking to see if certain horses are stopped because they carried over 121 lbs, traineras who get improvement off a claim by risking a breakdown, racebacks that may succeed.
I pretty much stopped eliminating and started giving credit for certain good things I see in the PP's. Now I mostly just eliminate horses who have to have the right situation setup to win, and those who will end up several lengths behind and have not showed the ability to pass tiring horses.

[Java Gold@TFT]

Mine That Bird in the Derby.

[LutherCalvin]

I usually eliminate horses that have not finished in the money in their last two races.

[ryesteve]

I always toss out horses who ran last in their last start.Too broad. If you otherwise like a horse, for whatever reason, it shouldn't make a difference whether or not he beat a horse in his last race. The real problem is that it's usually hard to find reasons to like a horse that finished poorly last time. But let's take something completely objective, like the Prime Power Rating. Using almost 2 1/2 years worth of data, top-ranked horses that finished last in their last race, returned -11%. The top-ranked horses that finished better than last in their last race returned -13%. So not only did those last-place horses not perform any worse in reality, they actually performed slightly better.

[ryesteve]

I usually eliminate horses that have not finished in the money in their last two races.Another really bad idea, because you're pretty much killing any chance of getting any value. Doing the same thing I did in the previous post, top-ranked prime power horses that ran out in both of their last two returned -9%; those that finished in the money in both of their last two returned -15%; those that finished in the money once, -13%

The more obvious a horse looks, the harder it is to get any value. The last thing you want to do is eliminate horses because they failed to hit the board in their last two races. If anything, this is a good place to START looking for selections.

[misscashalot]

Is there some horses that you automatically eliminate? I always toss out horses who ran last in their last start.

Post time favs whose post times odds are higher than their ML's.

At Bel this meet of the 457 races, 176 were won by favs (.385) and only 3 have won with higher odds than their ML's.

[ryesteve]

Post time favs whose post times odds are higher than their ML's.

At Bel this meet of the 457 races, 176 were won by favs (.385) and only 3 have won with higher odds than their ML's.But how many lost with higher odds than their ML? For all we know, those three winners were the only favorites that met this criteria.

[Rocklane]

any horse that cannot run near the race par unless a lightly raced 3yr old....
any horse distanced at this level last three races (+10 lenght losses)not showing any drastic changes for todays race...Horse dropping in claiming price after a win.

Agree with the first two points. However, with the claiming business less than robust, don't you think some connections are trying to cash by running against weaker competition knowing that the claiming business is down? Just a thought. I never comprehend trainer intent.

[Rocklane]

Yeah, the winner. :bang:

Great! :D

[markgoldie]

The counter-question might be, "eliminate from what?" If we are talking about eliminating horses from the win position, it is nowhere near as hard as eliminating horses totally from a super ticket. So let's examine both possibilities.

Eliminating from win is a fairly simple task. Eliminate all horses whose final adjusted speed fig for their last three competitive races are more than 7 points lower than at least two other horses in the race. Eliminate all S-types with speed figs in last two races that are 5 points lower than at least two other horses, when the speed-support bias of the track and distance favors speed types. Eliminate all E-types who have final speed figs in last 3 that are 5 points lower than at least two other horses and who do not have the requisite Quirin speed points and E2 velocity to make the front. Eliminate all P(1) and P(0) horses when at least 2 S-types have equal or higher Quirin points and 3-point higher final figs in last 3 races. Eliminate all chestnut geldings in a race where there are at least two grey stallions. (Not sure why this seems to work so well but since nobody has the stats to disprove it, we'll stick with it temporarily).

Eliminations in vetical gimmicks is the holy grail for me and if anybody has some sure-fire methods, I'm willing to pay. Generally I eliminated on the basis of final speed figs by CAREFULLY sifting through the horse's last 3 races to rule out all legitimate excuses for low numbers. If there are no excuses and the horse is at the rear of the field in these numbers, then I pray that he is a low-velocity E (preferably) or E/P. These are the ones you see running second or third in the early going and then dutifully receed from sight. Eliminating high Quirin-pointed P's is also possible along the same lines. Like P(4)'s and P(5)'s. It is much more tricky eliminating the low-fig S types because they offer high mutuel value and frequently end up on the bottom portion of the ticket. So my advice is leave them in because over the long run they will pay for themselves. If you must eliminate them, look for truly dismal final speed-fig numbers and failure to get near a 4th position for at least several races.

Mark

[Ian Meyers]

Horses at certain tracks that are dead on the board early.

I have been playing NYRA for 30 years and I am still amazed how smart that early flash is. Horses 8/5 in the ML that open at 5/2 don't win often. It's doubly bad when you see that horse bounce back up in price near post time. e.g. an 8/5 fave opens at 5/2, is 2-1 with 7MTP drops to 8/5 at 5MTP and bounces back up to 2-1 at 3MTP. It's the square money that's cutting his price, and the sharp money bouncing it back up.

There are some smaller tracks I play that fall into this category as well like CBY and FP.

[fmolf]

Agree with the first two points. However, with the claiming business less than robust, don't you think some connections are trying to cash by running against weaker competition knowing that the claiming business is down? Just a thought. I never comprehend trainer intent.
That is a very good and salient point.the reason i usually toss them is that they usually go off at 6/5 sometimes lower.The possibility exists that horses are on the down turn or injured form their last race and connections are trying to make one last score or get what they can for the horse.If such a horse were say 10/1 i might not toss him immediately.

[Rocklane]

Good point.

[1st time lasix]

I strive to eliminate at least 1 of the top three public favorites because the distance, ....surface, ....post, ....expected pace,.... lack of early tactical speed, ... recent form ....doesn't suit. Some believe that the key to overlays iis to eliminate some vulnerable favorite{s} -------not lower probabilty {but higher paying} longer shots. Generally shots of 18-1 or more are not going to win enough to justify them in the top spot.....but i don't like to look at the board until i have identified my contenders. I find there is a risk that your handicapping will be influenced by the board and anchor some pre-concieved notion if you don't look at PP's, numbers, trainer influence and pace scenario first. Then the art of determining the pool to play---- and the ultimate ticket structure comes in after that..... good luck to all. What a game!

[Jake]

Too broad. If you otherwise like a horse, for whatever reason, it shouldn't make a difference whether or not he beat a horse in his last race. The real problem is that it's usually hard to find reasons to like a horse that finished poorly last time. But let's take something completely objective, like the Prime Power Rating. Using almost 2 1/2 years worth of data, top-ranked horses that finished last in their last race, returned -11%. The top-ranked horses that finished better than last in their last race returned -13%. So not only did those last-place horses not perform any worse in reality, they actually performed slightly better.

Another really bad idea, because you're pretty much killing any chance of getting any value. Doing the same thing I did in the previous post, top-ranked prime power horses that ran out in both of their last two returned -9%; those that finished in the money in both of their last two returned -15%; those that finished in the money once, -13%

The more obvious a horse looks, the harder it is to get any value. The last thing you want to do is eliminate horses because they failed to hit the board in their last two races. If anything, this is a good place to START looking for selections.

Excellent examples here. You should love horses capable of winning with bad recent form. I don't know if that is one of the tenets of value betting, but it certainly should be. Good recent form, as shown above, only serves to dampen ROI on contenders. Nice illustration of that effect, Steve.

[fmolf]

The counter-question might be, "eliminate from what?" If we are talking about eliminating horses from the win position, it is nowhere near as hard as eliminating horses totally from a super ticket. So let's examine both possibilities.

Eliminating from win is a fairly simple task. Eliminate all horses whose final adjusted speed fig for their last three competitive races are more than 7 points lower than at least two other horses in the race. Eliminate all S-types with speed figs in last two races that are 5 points lower than at least two other horses, when the speed-support bias of the track and distance favors speed types. Eliminate all E-types who have final speed figs in last 3 that are 5 points lower than at least two other horses and who do not have the requisite Quirin speed points and E2 velocity to make the front. Eliminate all P(1) and P(0) horses when at least 2 S-types have equal or higher Quirin points and 3-point higher final figs in last 3 races. Eliminate all chestnut geldings in a race where there are at least two grey stallions. (Not sure why this seems to work so well but since nobody has the stats to disprove it, we'll stick with it temporarily).

Eliminations in vetical gimmicks is the holy grail for me and if anybody has some sure-fire methods, I'm willing to pay. Generally I eliminated on the basis of final speed figs by CAREFULLY sifting through the horse's last 3 races to rule out all legitimate excuses for low numbers. If there are no excuses and the horse is at the rear of the field in these numbers, then I pray that he is a low-velocity E (preferably) or E/P. These are the ones you see running second or third in the early going and then dutifully receed from sight. Eliminating high Quirin-pointed P's is also possible along the same lines. Like P(4)'s and P(5)'s. It is much more tricky eliminating the low-fig S types because they offer high mutuel value and frequently end up on the bottom portion of the ticket. So my advice is leave them in because over the long run they will pay for themselves. If you must eliminate them, look for truly dismal final speed-fig numbers and failure to get near a 4th position for at least several races.

MarkThat is a lot of rules and figuring!I would need a wrist band like a football QB to remember them!I think i do about basically the same type of thing except for me it is a lot by using the pars both final speed and pace at all calls.remember i do not play tri's or supers so i am only looking for the second horse

[dav4463]

Don't combine the top two favorites in exactas.

[markgoldie]

That is a lot of rules and figuring!I would need a wrist band like a football QB to remember them!I think i do about basically the same type of thing except for me it is a lot by using the pars both final speed and pace at all calls.remember i do not play tri's or supers so i am only looking for the second horse
Not a lot of figuring if you do it about 25 times a day on average. Sort of becomes like your kids' names. Hard to forget. My little attempt of humor about the chestnut geldings went unnoticed. I guess some thought I was serious or more likely, they don't bother to read my posts.

Mark